For each year since 2000, Bryan Leyland has assembled a graph of the global temperature against the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), shifted forward by four months. The result is a remarkable correlation that gives an excellent indication of global temperatures up to four months in advance. Continue Reading →
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Bryan Leyland has sent us his latest report of the Southern Oscillation Index and its ramifications on the global average temperature.
He says that, if the relationship holds, next month will be cooler rather than warmer.
Here’s his latest graph, showing the blue SOI, shifted forward seven months, behind the red global temperature record.
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UPDATE 1, 11 JAN 2011, 09:30 NZDT
On December 1 last year, we wrote about Bryan Leyland’s prediction of significant cooling before the end of the year coming true. You can see from the chart exactly what happened. Not only that, it would appear that the temperature has not finished going down yet.
This remarkable forecast, now some eight months old, comes out of a 2009 paper showing a lagged correlation between global temperatures and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), calculated from fluctuations in the air pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin, and indicative also of the start (and the state) of a La Nina (as now) or an El Nino. This correlation is a lot more convincing than comparing global temperature with CO2 levels! Continue Reading →
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