World temp prediction

Bryan Leyland has sent us his latest report of the Southern Oscillation Index and its ramifications on the global average temperature.

He says that, if the relationship holds, next month will be cooler rather than warmer.

Here’s his latest graph, showing the blue SOI, shifted forward seven months, behind the red global temperature record.

Leyland global temp prediction

9 Thoughts on “World temp prediction

  1. Peter Fraser on May 12, 2011 at 11:44 pm said:

    Off the topic a little bit but I must comment on the mainstream media’s lack of information on the cause of the Mississppee flood currently being experieced by the States adjoining “Ole Man River” (unprecedented since 180? It is of course because of the snow melt from the particularly harsh winter experienced by States in middle Americe during the northern hemisphere’s last winter.

  2. Alexander K on May 13, 2011 at 9:53 pm said:

    Also a little OT, but the loopy environmentalist Caroline Spellman, the MP in the UK who made an idiot of herself attempting to sell off the Brit forests and getting slapped down for daring to even suggest this by the ranks of the wealthy Conservative squireocracy, has made an idiot of herself again (perhaps it’s a permanent condition) by hitching her wagon firmly to warming and making extravagant statements about how the coming 40 degree Celsius Summers in the UK means that billions, yeah, that’s billions with a ‘b’, will have to be spent on the Wifi infrastructure to prevent “the heat stopping it working”. Mates in the outback of Aus, where it’s a bit hotter than it’s ever likely to be in the UK, report no problems with the technology there.
    Ranks right up there with the old NZ Post and Telegraph Department higher-ups of a bygone era who stated that cordless phones could not be permitted in NZ ‘because it’s a long and narrow country’1
    There must be alternative physics textbooks in circulation for these people that us mere mortals have never been allowed to see!

  3. Richard C (NZ) on May 14, 2011 at 12:19 am said:

    So here we have a climate driver hypothesis being put to the empirical test.

    All relevant AGW predictions and observed metrics should be monitored similarly by the NZ Office of Climate Change and ongoing updates published on their website for public viewing.

    It might happen.

  4. Robin Pittwood on May 14, 2011 at 12:25 am said:

    Hi Bryan,
    Thanks for putting this up for consideration. I’ll be watching with interest.
    Regards,
    Robin Pittwood

    Richard, just a small point,
    In your last sentence you said:
    “Here’s his latest graph, showing the red global temperature record, shifted back seven months, against the blue SOI.”
    It’s not the temperature that was moved back, it’s the SOI that’s moved forward. Check the dates on the x axis.
    Cheers, Robin.

  5. Alexander K on May 14, 2011 at 2:21 am said:

    Richard, I didn’t include Spellman’s silliness about railway lines as I considered I had provided enough loopy stuff from her for one letter. How any voters could take this strange lady seriously enough to elect is beyond me. Perhaps it’s one of the side effects of utterly tribal politics here.

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