Papers

This thread is for discussion and listing of climate science papers.

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Richard C (NZ)Mike JowseyAndyBob D Recent comment authors
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Bob D
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Bob D

On the performance of models:

G. G. Anagnostopoulos et al. (2010) “A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with observed data”

http://pdfserve.informaworld.com/943561__928051726.pdf

Abstract:
We compare the output of various climate models to temperature and precipitation observations at 55 points around the globe.We also spatially aggregate model output and observations over the contiguous USA using data from 70 stations, and we perform comparison at several temporal scales, including a climatic (30-year) scale.
Besides confirming the findings of a previous assessment study that model projections at point scale are poor, results show that the spatially integrated projections are also poor.

Andy
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Andy

Bishop Hill reports that the Salzer et al.paper will play a prominent role in AR5, apparently suggesting that Bristlecone Pines are a reliable temperature proxy.

http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2011/9/19/yup.html

The subject of the Bristlecone Pines is discussed at length in BH’s book The Hockey Stick Illusion.

Mike Jowsey
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Mike Jowsey

New paper:

Five climate-forcing mechanisms govern 20,000 years of climate change
By Joachim Seifert and Frank Lemke
Published on: October 8, 2012 (18 pages)

Summary available here: http://www.knowledgeminer.eu/pdf/eoo_paper_summary.pdf

Details!of!demonstrated!astro3climatic!relations!are!as!of!today,!2012,!new!and!origi3
nal!climate!change!knowledge.!The!IPCC!has!not!been!able!to!provide!supplementary!
data! on! cycle!mechanics.! The! identification! of! 5! macro3climatic! drivers,!missing! in!
current!GCMs,!unmistakably!proves!that!climate!science!is!not!settled!yet.!One!miss3
ing!driver!may!be!excused,!but!not!five.!The!notion!of!”The!Science!is!Settled”,!upheld!
since!the!days!of!Galileo,!is!a!spiritual!relict!of!the!past.

Sorry about the formatting of the above excerpt. Copy & paste from pdf glitch.

Andy
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Andy

Another paper finds that climate sensitivity is low

Nic Lewis has had a paper published in Journal of Climate. It’s a reworking of the Forest et al 2006 paper on climate sensitivity, but removing the warm bias of Forest’s uniform prior, as well as dealing with some data issues.

http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2013/4/16/another-paper-finds-that-climate-sensitivity-is-low.html

Mike Jowsey
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Mike Jowsey

“A pair of scientific journals accepted a nonsense paper from a made-up university with author names borrowed from The Simpsons TV show.”
http://www.stuff.co.nz/oddstuff/64003423/doh-science-journal-duped-by-maggie-simpson

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Two papers that together falsify the Man-Made Climate Change Theory. 1) ‘An observationally based energy balance for the Earth since 1950’ D. M. Murphy, S. Solomon, R. W. Portmann, K. H. Rosenlof, P. M. Forster, T. Wong (2009) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2009JD012105/full There is obviously a massive discrepancy between theoretical forcing and actual earth heating. Murphy et al describe the discrepancy as “striking”: [38] A striking result of the Earth energy budget analysis presented here [Figure 6 below] is the small fraction of greenhouse gas forcing that has gone into heating the Earth. Since 1950, only about 10 ± 7% of the forcing by greenhouse gases and solar radiation has gone into heating the Earth, primarily the oceans. Murphy et al (2009) Figure 6 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/store/10.1029/2009JD012105/asset/image_n/jgrd15636-fig-0006.png?v=1&s=1d48ee59aed4b059a12eea9575028e88a7b134ce Total cumulative theoretical forcing is 1700 x 10^21 Joules 1950 – 2004 of which 10% is 170 x 10^21 Joules. In Figure 6, solar forcing is already 100 x 10^21 Joules leaving a residual of 70 x 10^21 Joules. Nordell and Gervet (2009) below estimate only 27.3 x 10^21 Joules (say 30 at 2004) actual energy accumulation total over the entire extended period 1880–2000 (say 2004): 2) ‘Global energy accumulation and… Read more »