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Richard C

Albedo, Earthshine, Reflectivity and Clouds


Earthshine Reveals Climate Changes


Earth’s Albedo Tells an Interesting Story

Posted on October 17, 2007 by Anthony Watts


Earthshine Project

The Earth’s climate depends on the net sunlight deposited on the globe, which is critically sensitive to the Earth’s albedo. A global and absolutely calibrated albedo can be determined by measuring the amount of sunlight reflected from the Earth and, in turn, back to the Earth from the dark portion of the face of the Moon (the `earthshine’ or `ashen light’).


Earths Albedo – Google Search

Richard C (NZ)

The message in the clouds

Earth’s Albedo: Cloud + Earthshine Projects

Richard C (NZ)

The Greenhouse Gas Theory Under a Cloud

Climate Change, the Sun and the Albedo Effect

Mar 29, 2010 John O’Sullivan

Richard C (NZ)

Special Collections in AGU Journals

Global Dimming and Brightening


Richard C (NZ)

Clouds Play X-Factor in Global Warming November 2, 2010 It is a little-known but significant fact that about 70 percent of the Earth’s surface is covered by clouds at any given time. But not all clouds are the same; different types of clouds affect the Earth’s climate differently. While some types of clouds help to warm the Earth, others help to cool it. Currently, all of the Earth’s clouds together exert a net cooling effect on our planet. But the large and opposing influences of clouds on the Earth’s climate begs the question: What will be the net effect of all of the Earth’s clouds on climate as the Earth continues to warm in the future? Will clouds accelerate warming or help offset, or dull, warming? Right now, “The scientific community is uncertain about how the effects of clouds will change in the future,” says Hugh Morrison, a scientist at NCAR in Boulder, Colo. That’s why, in 1997, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) described clouds as “the largest source of uncertainty” in predictions of climate change. To reduce this uncertainty and improve predictions of climate change/global warming, scientists are now working… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)

Study finds global warming from natural cloud changes is more than 3 times greater than from ‘greenhouse gases’

Tuesday, May 31, 2011

A peer-reviewed paper published in The Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics finds that natural changes in global cloud cover over the 21 year period 1983-2004 are responsible for at least 3 times as much global warming as has been attributed to greenhouse gases over the 104 year period of 1900-2004. The paper finds the decrease in reflectance from clouds (albedo) over only the past 21 years has accounted for a change in solar energy delivered to the Earth surface of ~ 7W/m2, whereas all greenhouse gases are claimed to only account for (assuming you believe the IPCC) a ~ 2.4 W/m2 change over a much longer 104 year period. The paper also finds that climate models do not account for these cloud changes, that cloud changes are much more variable than previously thought, and that the cloud changes are not man-made or related to greenhouse gases.


Richard C (NZ)

Declining global average cloud height: “A significant measure of negative feedback to global warming” Posted on February 9, 2012 by Anthony Watts Guest post by Dr. Pat Michaels – reposted (with permission) from World Climate Report A new paper just published in Geophysical Research Letters by Roger Davies and Mathew Molloy of the University of Auckland finds that over the past decade the global average effective cloud height has declined and that “If sustained, such a decrease would indicate a significant measure of negative cloud feedback to global warming.” Davies and Molloy are quick to point out that part of the decline from 2000 to 2010 in cloud height is due to the timing and variability of El Niño/La Niña events over the same period, however, there still seems to be evidence that at least part of the decline may remain even when El Niño/La Niña variability is accounted for. Figure 1 (below) shows the history of the effective cloud height, as determined by Davies and Molloy from satellite observations, from March 2000 through February 2010. [See plot] Figure 1. Deseasonalized anomalies of global effective cloud-top height from the 10-year mean. Solid line:… Read more »


Atmospheric Thermodynamics and Heat


Radiative Imbalance

Richard C (NZ)

There is a new comment on the post “Shock! Climate models can’t even predict a linear rise”. Author: Paul Comment: Here’s an interesting fact. I Googled “Kirchoff Exchange Law” to learn more about this central part of the theory and found, on the second page of results, this PDF document Kirchhoff’s Law of Thermal Emission: 150 Years which concludes : — Most troubling is the realization that the physical cause of blackbody radiation remains as elusive today as in the days of Kirchho . Physicists speak of mathematics, of Planck’s equation, but nowhere is the physical mechanism mentioned. Planck’s frustration remains: “Therefore to attempt to draw conclusions concerning the special properties of the particles emitting rays from the elementary vibrations in the rays of the normal spectrum would be a hopeless undertaking” [7; x111]. In 1911, Einstein echoes Planck’s inability to link thermal radiation to a physical cause: “Anyway, the h-disease looks ever more hopeless” [66; p. 228]. Though he would be able to bring a ready derivation of Planck’s theorem using his coefficients [67], Einstein would never be able to extract a proper physical link [68]. In reality, we are no… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Richard C (NZ)

Radiation Transmitted by the Atmosphere – graphic plot


Richard C (NZ)

Another IPCC Prediction Failure: Infrared Radiation That Warms Earth Is Doing Opposite of Model Predictions Read here. The essential foundation of the AGW hypothesis is that CO2 atmospheric increases block the escape of infrared radiation and increasingly bounces the infrared warming back to the Earth’s surface to warm it. But when examining the empirical evidence, the infrared radiation bouncing back to Earth is mostly decreasing, not increasing. This is a likely the explanation for the disappearing global warming over the last 15 years. Simply put, this is the exact opposite of what IPCC climate models and its faux climate scientists predicted. Researchers Gero and Turner, using highly accurate technology, measured the decreases of infrared radiation reaching the surface and contend the decrease is due to increased cloudiness over the site – that’s called a negative feedback, which Dr. Roy Spencer has presciently espoused. “A study published online yesterday in The Journal of Climate, however, finds that contrary to the global warming theory, infrared ‘back-radiation’ from greenhouse gases has declined over the past 14 years in the US Southern Great Plains in winter, summer, and autumn. If the anthropogenic global warming theory was correct,… Read more »



The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program



ARM/ASR’s Radiative Heating in Underexplored Bands Campaign



ARM’s Broadband Heating Rate Profile Project

Richard C (NZ)

Observed cirrus cloud radiative forcing on surface-level shortwave and longwave irradiances

J-C. Dupont, M. Haeffelin
Institut Pierre et Simon Laplace, Ecole Polytechnique, France

ARM meeting, 10-14 March 2008, Norfolk

Radiative Processes Working Group



World Radiation Monitoring Center (WRMC)

Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN)

Datasets from “Data”

Dataset sample from “LR 0100 + LR 0300 (Basic and other measurements)”

Data Description sample from “Long, C (2009): Basic measurements of radiation at station Darwin (2002-03)”

Radiation Panel

Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX)

World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)

Richard C (NZ)

Darwinian Selection – “Back Radiation”

August 11, 2010 by scienceofdoom

Plots from BSRN Darwin data showing DLR (downward longwave radiation, aka “back radiation”)

The offending 1.7Wm2 from CO2 is in there somewhere. If someone could point it out to me, that would be much appreciated. See “A Null Hypothesis for CO2”

“A 1.7 W.m−2 increase in downward LWIR flux (+100 ppm CO2) increases peak summer temperature by 0.32 C and winter temperature by 0.34 C.
Maximum change occurs at night. Daytime increases are less, 0.14 and 0.17 C.”


Monday, October 18, 2010

The fallacy of the greenhouse effect

A recommended post from the planetary vision blog, The fallacy of the greenhouse effect, explains in simple terms why the conventional explanation of the “greenhouse effect” violates both the 1st and 2nd laws of thermodynamics:


Radiative Transfer Climate Models – Google Search

Richard C (NZ)


Radiative forcing by well-mixed greenhouse gases:
Estimates from climate models in the IPCC AR4

Collins Et Al 2010

Richard C (NZ)

See – “Climate”

Clouds in Climate Models

Richard C (NZ)

Climate Audit – Search Results for: Cloud positive feedback

Richard C (NZ)

See – “Climate Model Papers”

Effects of bias in solar radiative transfer codes on global climate model simulations

Arking 2005

Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA

Richard C (NZ)

Effects of bias in solar radiative transfer codes on global climate model simulations – Google Scholar Search

Note: this is a better search than:

radiative transfer codes global climate model simulations

and contains for example;

“An accurate parameterization of the infrared radiative properties of cirrus clouds for climate models” Yang 1998

Also see – “Clouds in Climate Models”

Richard C (NZ)

See – Climate Models

NON IPCC and Natural Forcings ONLY

Atmospheric & Environmental Research, Inc.’s (AER)
Radiative Transfer Working Group

The foundation of our research and model development is the validation of line-by-line radiative transfer calculations with accurate high-resolution measurements.


See “Climate Science”

Climate Models

NON IPCC and Natural Forcings ONLY

Cloud Resolving Model – Google Search


Cloud Resolving Model – Google Scholar Search


Hydrological Cycle: Evaporation and Water Vapour

Richard C (NZ)
Richard C (NZ)

Also, the “Lite” slideshow. Includes Miskolczi’s theorem.(unless someone disproves it). The right physics in my opinion [Van Andel]: We have a strongly controlled climate. The solar constant and the physical properties of water keep us controlled. • The heat transfer from surface into space uses two mechanisms in series: Convection in the lower atmosphere, IR radiation in the higher atmosphere. • The warmer it becomes, going from pole to equator, the more important the convection part becomes. The height on which radiation flux becomes larger than convection flux, the convection top, rises. • More convection means a higher tropopause, a lower cloud top temperature, a higher condensation efficiency, and in this way a drier upper troposphere. • These two effects: a higher convection top and a drier upper troposphere, both increase Outgoing Longwave Radiation. This controls the temperature. Galactic cosmic rays change climate, like sulphuric acid, by increasing CCN [Cloud Condensation Nucleation) ,whiter and more clouds, smaller droplets, decreased precipitation efficiency concluding: • Rising Outgoing Long-wave radiation with more than 3.7 W/m^2 per ºC SST cannot be the effect of rising CO2 or of the increase of other “greenhouse” gases. Rising OLR/SST… Read more »


Carbon Dioxide (CO2)


“Maximum ‘Residence Time’ of Atmospheric CO2″

To quote Cohenite at JoNova:

“Clearly the IPCC views about the long-life of ACO2 is an outlier”


The distinction between residence time and response time.

Richard C (NZ)
Richard C (NZ)

Wrong links:


Richard C (NZ)

National Science Foundation (NSF) Press Release 09-001 Scientists Take off on Historic Mission to Measure Greenhouse Gases That Have an Impact on Climate HIAPER, one of the nation’s most advanced research aircraft, is scheduled to embark on an historic mission spanning the globe from the Arctic to the Antarctic. Starting Jan. 7, 2009, the HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) mission will cover more than 24,000 miles as an international team of scientists makes a series of five flights over the next three years sampling the atmosphere in some of the most inaccessible regions of the world. The goal of the mission is ambitious–the first-ever, global, real-time sampling of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases across a wide range of altitudes in the atmosphere, literally from pole-to-pole. To date, much of our understanding of global atmospheric greenhouse gases has been acquired from ground-based observations, distant satellites, balloon launches, or highly sophisticated supercomputer models. HIAPER’s pole-to-pole mission will, for the first time, give scientists real-time global observation data to correlate with those climate models. HIAPER is short for the National Science Foundation’s High-performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research. A modified Gulfstream V jet, it can… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)

Global air and sea temperatures starting to drop rapidly

Posted on October 29, 2010 by Anthony Watts

Dr. Roy Spencer has an essay below on sea surface temperatures starting to bottom out, but in addition to that, the UAH daily lower troposphere plot shows a sharp drop also.

As this graph of UAH TLT from D Kelly O’Day’s site shows, The current global anomaly is 0.044C – or very nearly zero. That’s a big drop from last month when we ended up at 0.60C.


Air Pollution – Thread

Richard C (NZ)

Study Shows Half Of Warming Since 1980 Due To Clear Skies

By P Gosselin on 19. Dezember 2010 has an excellent report today called: ALL-CLEAR IN THE STRATOSPHERE about volcanic aerosols and their impact on the earth’s climate and cooling. Turns out that they have a far greater impact than expected.

Today the earth’s stratosphere is as clean as it’s been in more than 50 years. What does that mean? It means more solar radiation can reach the earth, and is thus contributing to warming. The stratosphere is too clean – because of the lack of volcanic activity over the last 18 years. According to climate scientist Richard Keen of the University of Colorado:

“Since 1996, lunar eclipses have been bright, which means the stratosphere is relatively clear of volcanic aerosols. This is the longest period with a clear stratosphere since before 1960.”



Methane (CH4)


From “Musings from the Chiefio” ——————————————————————————————————————— # on November 30, 2010 at 1:34 pm Adrian Vance Methane is not a “greenhouse gas.” Consult any of the IR absorption charts and you will see this is another lie from the skunks in white coats who are eating Truffles in Barcelona, Caviar in Copenhagen and who knows what in Cancun. This also tells us what fools we’ve been with our “Jockstraps in Space” programs going to the moon for a handful of granite chips and never rising higher than 1/4th inch on the scale of a one foot home globe in the “Space Shuttle” which is little more than a Magic Mountain thrill ride for simpletons in spacesuits. The story that one was drunk when he got on the craft had my sympathy as I would be too if I ever were put on that thing. America deserves to fail as we demonized DDT and Freon(tm) when they were two of the finest industrial chemicals ever made, but Dupont was happy to see Rachal Carson, Molina and Rowland show up so they could patent new, inferior chemicals while 100 million people died the lingering death… Read more »


Global Warming Notes by Adrian Vance Absorption Spectra See plot: “ABSORPTION SPECTRA FOR THE MAJOR NATURAL GREENHOUSE GASES IN THE ATMOSPHERE” This is an official set of graphs from the American Meteorological Society. The vertical red lines were added to show infrared range normally considered in the analysis of atmospheric heating, “IR absorption.” When the chart is analyzed in terms of the areas under the absorption curves we find that water vapor has 3.3 times the area of carbon dioxide, but it also absorbs more in the shorter wavelengths which are higher energy by: E = (h X c)/w Where E is energy in Joules, h is Planck’s constant, c is the speed of light, w is wavelength in micrometers, millionths of a meter. The net energy absorption is six times greater for water vapor than that seen for carbon dioxide per molecule and where water vapor has 200 times as many molecules as CO2 it has 1200 times the overall heating effect. Note that methane and nitrous oxide which are often called “very powerful greenhouse gases” by alarmists are very poor absorbers of infrared as well as nearly nonexistant in the… Read more »


In addition to the limited GHG effect of methane, we also have the inconvenient fact that levels are not increasing

From the IPCC itself, we have

Direct atmospheric measurements of the gas made at a wide variety of sites in both hemispheres over the last 25 years show that, although the abundance of CH4 has increased by about 30% during that time, its growth rate has decreased substantially from highs of greater than 1% yr–1 in the late 1 70s and early 1980s (Blake and Rowland, 1988) to lows of close to zero towards the end of the 1990s (Dlugokencky et al., 1998; Simpson et al., 2002). The slowdown in the growth rate began in the 1980s, decreasing from 14 ppb yr–1 (about 1% yr–1) in 1984 to close to zero during 1999 to 2005, for the network of surface sites maintained by NOAA/GMD

Remind me again, why is NZ the only country in the world proposing to tax farmers for methane emissions?

It is just unbelievable.


In addition, the graph on this page tells a tale about the methane issue

Richard C (NZ)

Level Of Important Greenhouse Gas Has Stopped Growing: Seven-Year Stabilization Of Methane May Slow Global Warming ScienceDaily (Nov. 22, 2006) — Scientists at UC Irvine have determined that levels of atmospheric methane – an influential greenhouse gas – have stayed nearly flat for the past seven years, which follows a rise that spanned at least two decades. This finding indicates that methane may no longer be as large a global warming threat as previously thought, and it provides evidence that methane levels can be controlled. Scientists also found that pulses of increased methane were paralleled by increases of ethane, a gas known to be emitted during fires. This is further indication that methane is formed during biomass burning, and that large-scale fires can be a big source of atmospheric methane. Professors F. Sherwood Rowland and Donald R. Blake, along with researchers Isobel J. Simpson and Simone Meinardi, believe one reason for the slowdown in methane concentration growth may be leak-preventing repairs made to oil and gas lines and storage facilities, which can release methane into the atmosphere. Other reasons may include a slower growth or decrease in methane emissions from coal mining, rice… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)

Paper here:-

Influence of biomass burning during recent fluctuations in the slow growth of global tropospheric methane

Simpson, Isobel J.; Rowland, F. Sherwood; Meinardi, Simone; Blake, Donald R.

Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 33, No. 22, L22808


23 November 2006


I actually posted on this topic in the last couple of days. The fact that methane levels have remained constant over the last 5 years or so is presented in IPCC AR4.

The NZ government is spending millions fixing this “problem”

Richard C (NZ)

I saw your comment so went looking for the latest Baring Head measurements and came across that article

NIWA have a Dec 2009 article “NIWA says greenhouse gas methane is on the rise again”

Although the graph does not necessarily indicate a continuation of the 2006-2008 rise (but it does correlate much better with global temperature than CO2)..



environmental issues and options

Rome, 2006

[Note: enter Methane in the pdf search box and click Find Next]

Screeds on emissions.

“Globally, livestock are the most important source of methane emissions”

“Livestock account for 35-40% of anthropogenic emissions”

Page 80

Anthropogenic climate change “well established fact”


“A part of the heat flow is absorbed by so-called greenhouse gases, trapping it in the atmosphere”.

Richard C (NZ)

Scepticism of AGW has no bearing unless backed by scientific rebuttal i.e. exposure of the fallacy of the AGW hypothesis. The assertion that anthropogenic climate change (AGW – ACC) is a “well established fact” is exposed as unfounded by the rebuttal papers available. One recent paper “Falsi fication Of The Atmospheric CO2 Greenhouse E ffects Within The Frame Of Physics” by physicists Gerlich and Tscheuschner (G&T 2009) does just that several times over. Consequently it is hated and denigrated by AGW proponents with vehemence. G&T is heavy going but I’ve found a synopsis (G&T “Lite”). This is from “Solar Flux” by Joe Postma ———————————————————————————————————- SUMMARY 1- The radiative surface of the earth is not the same thing as the ground surface of the earth. Therefore, comparing the actual ground-air temperature to the theoretical radiative equilibrium blackbody temperature is an invalid concept – there is no reason to do this from the outset. The theoretical radiative equilibrium temperature is measured to be exactly just that, on average, as seen from space. 2- The simple Ideal Gas Law, and the First and Second Laws of Thermodynamics, tell us that the atmospheric temperature increases with density in a… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)

Livestock and Climate Change Policy in New Zealand

Hayden – Montgomery, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry
New Zealand

New Zealand Pastural Farming Climate Research

Richard C (NZ)

New Zealand Pastural Farming Climate Research

Promoting livestock methane emissions as sustainable and not responsible for global warming

Pastural Farming Climate Research Incorporated

* To promote livestock methane emissions as sustainable and not responsible for global warming.
* To study and comment on research by other organisations that relate to pastoral farming carbon emissions.
* To initiate an academic study to determine the net effect livestock have on the carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere and whether what ever effect they do have could cause global warming.
* To advocate fairness for agricultural producers under any carbon emission laws or regulations.

Pecuniary gain is not the purpose of the society.

Richard C (NZ)

I’ve left a comment and links to this methane thread and to all other CCG access under this post at Pastural Farming (

Richard C (NZ)

This post seems to sum-up Pastural Farming’s perspective
Emission Factors

Written By: Robin Grieve

In just 6 weeks agriculture will start the voluntary reporting of the bullshit emissions as calculated using the science defying logic of the Ministry of Bullshit. This is a new ministry that encompasses the Ministry’s of Climate Change issues, Climate Change Negotiations, Environment and Agriculture. The Ministers of Bullshit are jointly, Nick Smith, Tim Grosser, Kate Wilkinson and the hapless David Carter. These people are well suited to the job.

Continues with emission factors (You’ve gotta see this) for:-




Other animals


Egg production
This maybe old news and exemptions now apply – dunno

See “ETS and carbon taxes”

“Farmers may win reprieve over ETS”

Richard C (NZ)

Back to NZ for the serious stuff By Fran O’Sullivan Dec 23, 2009 – NZ Herald New Zealand will be leading the way on tackling agriculture emission reduction, says Fran O’Sullivan. Trade Minister Tim Groser deserves special mention for the way in which he has married NZ’s objectives on the trade and climate change front. Groser’s brainchild – a global alliance to research ways of reducing agriculture emissions – has gained huge support from powerhouse countries like the US and India, supported by others like Denmark, Japan, Australia and Canada. The launch of the alliance in Copenhagen last week was a bright spot in an otherwise spectacularly disastrous conference. Groser – who is a very adroit and experienced negotiator having led the agriculture committee negotiations at the World Trade Organisation – described the atmosphere at the conference as “madness”. But irrespective of the flim-flam at Copenhagen, NZ is set to drive forward the global agenda to mitigate the effects of climate change. In March, representatives from up to 30 nations that are signing up for the global alliance will come to New Zealand for a summit on agriculture emissions. This is serious stuff.… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)

GLOBAL RESEARCH ALLIANCE ON AGRICULTURAL GREENHOUSE GASES Global Research Alliance Secretariat Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry PO Box 2526 Wellington 6140 NEW ZEALAND Research Groups Paddy rice Crops Livestock Livestock Research Group The Livestock Research Group of the Alliance is focused on reducing greenhouse gas intensity and improving overall production efficiency of livestock systems. The Group will work together to find ways to limit emissions of methane (CH4), emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) and to increase the quantity of carbon (C) stored in those soils managed as part of a livestock production system. The Group will work to better quantify emissions from livestock systems so that national inventories are improved and farmers, land managers and policy makers around the world have an improved knowledge of the source and extent of emissions from different components of livestock systems. A further key activity of the Livestock Research Group will be transferring knowledge, practices and technologies to stakeholders such that research and development outputs result in beneficial greenhouse gas outcomes. The partnership will address ruminants and non-ruminants livestock and the multiplicity of systems of production associated with these two principle livestock types. Gas emissions to be… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)

Livestock Research Group Meeting Banff Park Lodge, Banff, Canada 8-9 October 2010 Overview and Meeting Summary BACKGROUND The Global Research Alliance on Agricultural Greenhouse Gases (‘the Alliance’) was launched in December 2009 and currently has 30 member countries. The Livestock Research Group is one of three groups established under the Alliance at the inaugural Senior Officials Meeting held in New Zealand in April 2010. The other two Research Groups are ‘Croplands’ and ‘Paddy Rice’. That meeting also agreed that New Zealand and the Netherlands would jointly coordinate the Livestock Research Group. All 30 member countries are currently participating in the Livestock Research Group, along with six observers. For more information, please see LIVESTOCK RESEARCH GROUP MEETING The first meeting of the Livestock Research Group was held in Banff, Canada from 8-9 October 2010, immediately following the international Greenhouse Gas and Animal Agriculture (GGAA) Conference from 3-7 October. The meeting was held in two parts: • An open session for GGAA conference delegates was held from 9am-12pm on Friday 8 October. This session provided an overview of the Alliance concept and an update on progress with its establishment since it was launched in… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)

Have made this inquiry to the Global Research Alliance Secretariat
The Secretary,

I’m interested in the NZ research activities in respect to the $45m pledged at COP15.

Is there a budget available for this showing research allocations and spending including travel etc that have been made to date?

If so, may I have a report sent?

Thanks and regards

Richard Cumming

Richard C (NZ)

Response from the Alliance contact Laura.Hogg ( —————————————————————————————————————————– Hi Richard, Thanks for your enquiry. I work in the Alliance Secretariat here at the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry. New Zealand’s investment in the Global Research Alliance is a matter for domestic processes at the moment, therefore we are not in a position to make information available about particular allocations or other expenditure. We are always welcoming of interest in the Alliance. It would be great to know a little more of your background? Many thanks, Laura —————————————————————————————————————————- My reply to Laura —————————————————————————————————————————– Laura, Thanks for the response. When do you think the information will become available? “We are always welcoming of interest in the Alliance. It would be great to know a little more of your background?” My background is energy (Int NZCE Mech) and economics (NZ Dip Bus) but am not working in either at the moment unfortunately so am keeping my hand in by studying climate science and all the ramifications of carbon emission mitigation measures. I have a handle on the economic costs of carbon emissions mitigation and the impacts on the various sectors and agriculture is just one of… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)

Have added this

“I also monitor as many metrics as possible (air, ocean, temp, heat
etc) and note that the GHG correlations with warming have been broken
over the last decade.”

I should say that CH4 has an atmospheric temp correlation (but not ocean heat) over the last decade that CO2 does not. Whether there’s a long-term correlation I don’t know (there isn’t in the case of CO2).

Richard C (NZ)

Received this reply.

Note that there has been no answer yet to this question

“When do you think the information will become available?”
Thank you Richard, that’s a comprehensive background.

Regards, Laura
So I’m no wiser as to the research allocation and spending so far of the $45m.

Except that in showing my colours I may have been shut out due to MAF’s adherence to the AGW consensus.

I doubt there will be anything more forthcoming from Laura but you never know, that may have just been a quick reply and she’s now drafting something up – here’s hoping.

Richard C (NZ)

3 points from looking at methane. —————————————————————————————————————————– 1) Is a CH4 molecule completely transparent to solar SW radiation? i.e. Does the in-coming radiation pass through the molecule unhindered (no reflection, no scattering, no absorption/re-emittance)? It must be largely transparent going by this plot Except for a very small area. Which makes my condition 5) above look silly depending on whether the small amount of excitation raises molecule temperature (heating) The same can be said for CO2 but the absorption below 5 micro metres is perhaps a little more in proportion to methane. —————————————————————————————————————————- 2) Over the last decade, methane levels (ppb) have plateaued and even correlate with temp a little (far better than CO2) although again there’s no correlation prior to the 70s. Baring Head CH4 NZ Ministry for the Environment (NIWA – Baring Head CO2 CH4) Global tropospheric methane —————————————————————————————————————————– 3) If CH4 levels have plateaued, there’s no reason to be concerned with it. From CO2 Science “we feel confident in suggesting that if the recent pause in CH4 increase is indeed temporary, it will likely be followed by a decrease in CH4 concentration, since that would be… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)

Scientists Rail Against Senator Who Belittled Research Dec. 23, 2010 – abcNEWS A team of scientists who study pollution’s role in global warming are outraged at a GOP Senator who, they say, has maligned their work as wasteful and petty by describing it as a study of “cow burps.” “This was not funded with earmarks and it was not a study about cow burps,” said John Aber, an environmental scientist and provost of the University of New Hampshire. “It’s not wasteful,” he said. “It’s important.” Sen. Tom Coburn, R- Okla., released on Monday his annual “Wastebook” report, a look at 100 projects that received federal funding which, he says, contributed to record deficits in the past year. Among those projects was a $700,000 grant from the Department of Agriculture to a team of environmental scientists at the University of New Hampshire to study greenhouse gas emissions – the chemicals associated with global warming – in the dairy industry. Coburn’s “Wastebook” quotes one of the project’s researchers telling a local New Hampshire paper that “cows emit most of their methane through belching, only a small fraction from flatulence.” Continues……… ——————————————————————————————————————— This research is a… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Richard C (NZ)

Ruminant Methane Measurement Centre Opened

Tuesday, 22 February 2011, 10:31 am
Press Release: NZRMMC

22 February 2011

The New Zealand Ruminant Methane Measurement Centre (NZRMMC) was officially opened today by the Hon. David Carter, Minister of Agriculture. The NZRMMC is the largest purpose built facility of its kind in the world and provides New Zealand scientists with an enviable opportunity to accurately measure methane emissions from more than 25 ruminant animals at the same time.

val majkus

link to a paper by Dr. Timo Niroma, a respected Finnish climatologist who has linked solar activity with temperature in many papers
PDF av here
The quiet Sun of the Maunder Minimum in the latter part of the 1600’s is compared to the hyper-active Sun in the 1900’s. Solar influence upon Earth’s climate in these times of very different sunspot abundance is investigated. A second thread in this study is the possible influence of Jupiter in the observed variability of solar behaviour. Thirdly, is an analysis of the solar condition right now (late 2008) and its possible implications for climate on Earth; including what might be ahead. Last is a critical examination of IPCC’s hypothesis that changing atmospheric CO2 concentration is the dominant contributor to changing climate.

val majkus

RSS data: 2010 not the warmest year in satellite record, but a close second
Posted on January 3, 2011 by Anthony Watts
The RSS data for Dec 2010 is out and available here, and I’m second in publishing it. The honor for being first goes to Lucia at the Blackboard here.

val majkus

UAH Global Temperature anomaly published, 1998 still warmest year in the UAH satellite record
As far as the race for warmest year goes, 1998 (+0.424 deg. C) barely edged out 2010 (+0.411 deg. C), but the difference (0.01 deg. C) is nowhere near statistically significant. So feel free to use or misuse those statistics to your heart’s content.

Richard C (NZ)

A fistful of dust

Jan 6th 2011 – The Economist

The true effect of windblown material is only now coming to be appreciated

ON MAY 26th 2008 Germany turned red. The winds of change, though, were meteorological, not political. Unusual weather brought iron-rich dust from Africa to Europe, not only altering the colour of roofs and cars on the continent but also, according to recent calculations by Max Bangert, a graduate student at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, making the place about a quarter of a degree colder for as long as the dust stayed in the air.

Unusual for Germany; commonplace for the planet as a whole. The Sahara and other bone-dry places continually send dust up into the atmosphere, where it may travel thousands of kilometres and influence regional weather, the global climate and even the growth of forests halfway around the planet………continues

Huub Bakker

Found this fascinating blog that postulates there is no greenhouse effect and then proves it using Venus’ atmosphere and looking at temperatures at the same pressure in both atmospheres. By correcting for the extra solar radiation that Venus receives, and the increased black body radiation from its higher temperature, he calculates the expected temperature on Venus. The two match remarkably well for a number of different pressures. I can’t fault his physics.

Quentin F

I’m not sure where to put this but here it is… [Thanks, Quentin. Atmosphere seems the right place. – Richard T]

Nature’s continued supply of atmospheric CO2 in LARGE qty
MANILA – PHILIPPINE authorities said on Sunday more people had been evacuated from towns and villages near a volcanic island close to the capital amid increasing signs of seismic activity. The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council said the number evacuated had increased to 1,375 as of Saturday from four towns near Taal volcano, while seismologists recorded 10 volcanic earthquakes overnight. Water temperatures and gas emissions also increased, seismologists said. ‘This large rise in CO2 (carbon dioxide) concentration indicates gas release from the magma at depth,’ the council said.

NOTE LARGE RISE in CO2!! And this is a tom tiddler so far!

The increased levels of CO2 are measured in the vicinity of the volcano and it’s reasonable they should rise. “Normal” annual volcanic emissions seem to be about a few percent of humanity’s annual emissions. But I’m open to correction.

Searching for evidence of the contribution to global CO2 levels from volcanic activity, I have discovered that a) it seems low; b) the emissions are difficult to observe and measure; and c) the available figures are of low reliability.

I don’t have emission figures for specific large eruptions.

Anthropogenic Global Cooling

I’m wondering if someone can help me. I know the temperature of the troposphere is measured using radiosondes & satellites, but how do they measure the temperature of the stratosphere, by the same methods?

The reason I’m asking is that AGW proponents always say that the temperature readings for the troposphere are uncertain due to problems in the way the data is gathered, yet then quickly move on to say it’s irrelevant (cough, cough, bs) as the stratosphere is cooling & shrinking. I know the strat has to be cooling whilst the tropo is warming simultaneously to prove AGW, but if the means of measuring one is ok why is that same means not ok for the other (assuming that it is measured that way of course)?

Richard C (NZ)

AGC, don’t know for sure but “by the same methods” is probable. On the AMSU–A site weather balloons are shown at 30km/10hPa (stratosphere) Soloman et al says this under Fig 1:- (C) 10°N to 10°S monthly average anomalies of temperatures and water vapor relative to the period from 1993 to 2006. 100-hPa monthly averaged temperature anomalies are taken from the Japanese Reanalysis And:- Representative uncertainties are given by the colored bars; for the satellite data sets, these show the precision as indicated by the monthly standard deviations, while for the balloon data set this is the estimated uncertainty provided in the Boulder data files.,%20S_3734D5B7d01.pdf The 100hPa (tropopause – top of trop, bottom of strat) temperature uncertainty range is 2C but hard to see cooling, warming or anything else although it is the zone above that and below the mesosphere that you are interested in. Tropopause I cannot see a reference to “the Japanese Reanalysis”. That reanalysis would give you the data sources that would include satellite and balloon I would think – just as with troposphere. The first sentence of Solomon et al states: “Stratospheric water vapor concentrations decreased by… Read more »

Anthropogenic Global Cooling

Cheers Richard.

Richard C (NZ)

Haven’t been able to find a contiguous time series plot yet at e.g. Climate4you or JunkScience but there is this page at NOAA:- The CPC global temperature analyses derived each day at 8 stratospheric levels (note “analysis” – not observations) You can only get plots for two years at a time and there’s no global average but you can do comparisons of say mid-strat 30mb/hPa and 10mb/hPa of e.g. tropical stratosphere 25N – 25S 2010 & 2011 vs 1979 &1980, 1999 & 2000 etc. Interesting too to see how the 2yr mean fits with climate max, climate min and climate mean but note carefully that the climate changes from 79-04 (1979-2006) to 79-06 (2007) to 79-07 (2009) to 79-08 (2010). Looking at 30hPa 25N – 25S and bringing up 2000, 2005, 2009 and 2010 in tabs across the browser it’s hard to discern any trend one way or another, they’re all around -57ish on average except 2001 at -59 and that was at 79-04 climate minimum note. You could look at all 11 plots for 2000 – 2010 to check. (2010) I’m sure there is a contiguous plot… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)

Here ’tis:-

An update of observed stratospheric temperature trends

Summary and Conclusions
[56] Since the previous major assessment of stratospheric
temperature trends [Ramaswamy et al., 2001], understanding of stratospheric climate change has increased for several reasons: (1) there is improved knowledge regarding the uncertainties inherent in both remotely sensed and radiosonde data at stratospheric levels; (2) there are several independent analyses of satellite and radiosonde data sets, with distinct homogeneity adjustments; and (3) the length of
the data records has increased with the passing of time. As a result, we now have increased confidence in our understanding of the latitudinal structure and the magnitude of trends in the lower stratosphere. However, we also acknowledge that there are substantial uncertainties in quantifying trends in the middle and upper stratosphere, as they are derived primarily from a single analysis of one data set (SSU data).

Lots about “the long-term trend” since 1979 but a look at Figures 4, 10, 14, 17 and 18 shows that there’s been no recent trend from the mid 1990s and that the cooling occurred prior to that. This is consistent with Solomon et al.


Clouds working to cool Earth

Research from The University of Auckland on changes in cloud height in the decade to 2010 has provided the first hint of a cooling mechanism that may be in play in the Earth’s climate.

Published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, the analysis of the first ten years of data from the NASA Terra satellite revealed an overall trend of decreasing cloud height. Global average cloud height declined by around 1 per cent over the decade, or around 30 to 40 metres. Most of the reduction was due to fewer clouds occurring at very high altitudes.


Spencer’s cloud hypothesis independently confirmed:


Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

Just a snippet I found on the NASA website

Q. Who named the PDO and can you give me more indepth information?

A. The term PDO was coined in about 1996 by Steven Hare at the University of Washington. He, along with colleagues Nathan Mantua, Yuan Zhang, Robert Francis and Mike Wallace discovered the pattern as part of work on fish population fluctuations. They have online papers that provide excellent information.

Interesting that one of the major drivers if internal variability of our climate system (PDO) was not actually named until 1996

Which, funnily enough, is about two years before “The Pause” (drum roll please)