Meteorology

This thread is for discussion of meteorology.

79
Leave a Reply

avatar
41 Comment threads
38 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
5 Comment authors
Richard TreadgoldAndyRichard C (NZ)Richard C (NZ)val majkus Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
Notify of
val majkus
Guest
val majkus

Interesting Guest post by Ed Thurstan of Sydney, Australia

Synopsis
This study shows that the NOAA maintained GHCN V2 database contains errors in calculating a Mean temperature from a Maximum and a Minimum. 144 years of data from 36 Australian stations are affected.

Means are published when the underlying Maximums and/or Minimums have been rejected.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/11/10/gross-data-errors-in-ghcn-v2-for-australia/#more-27653

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Mount Merapi SO2 plume headed for Australia

Posted on November 10, 2010 by Anthony Watts

Indonesia’s Mount Merapi volcano put a lot of ejecta into the air; ash, CO2, and SO2.

A plume of sulfur dioxide from Indonesia’s deadly Mount Merapi volcano is swirling through the upper atmosphere over western Australia. This 7-day movie from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) onboard Europe’s MetOp satellite shows the plume in motion, and it could soon swirl across the entire continent. Sky watchers in Australia should be alert for volcanic sunsets.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Parliament of the Commonwealth of Australia

Inquiry into long-term meteorological forecasting in Australia

© Commonwealth of Australia

Report, 23 November 2009

2.69
The Committee was astounded to learn that private enterprises are apparently able to forecast particular seasonal conditions and events, which may not necessarily have been forecast by our leading national agencies. The question that came to the mind of Committee members when this issue came to light was “how did you forecast these events and why didn’t anyone else?” When considering the skills, knowledge and expertise in our national agencies, the question that came to mind was “what do they know that CSIRO and the Bureau don’t?”

———————————————————————————————————————–

For the answers to these questions see:-

Solar – Cosmic Ray Flux Relationship

WHAT IS THE MAIN FACTOR CONTROLLING THE MURRAY DARLING BASIN SYSTEM RAINFALL (SOUTH QLD-NEW SOUTH WALES-VICTORIA & SOUTH AUSTRALIA AREAS)?

The Watts and Copeland Sinusoidal Solar-Lunar Model

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Inquiry into long-term meteorological forecasting in Australia Recommendation 1 The Committee recommends that CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology provide to the Australian Government a report with detailed explanatory information as to why a particular dynamic forecasting model or system was chosen for use in Australia. The report should be completed by the end of 2010. Recommendation 2 The Committee recommends that weather and climate variables and influences, for example, particulates, be identified, thoroughly examined to assess their degree of impact on our weather and climate, and incorporated into forecasting models as necessary. Priority areas for incorporating these variables should be published. Recommendation 3 The Committee recommends that the Australian Government increase funding for research into the effects of weather and climate variables such as El Nino and Indian Ocean Dipole that impact on Australia’s forecasting abilities. Recommendation 4 The Committee recommends that the Australian Government conduct a short review to determine what supercomputing facilities are required by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology to conduct crucial forecasting operations and research. Any additional funding to increase supercomputing capacity should be made available as a priority so that all model research, development and application… Read more »

val majkus
Guest
val majkus

One of the committee members was Dennis Jensen who is calling for a Royal Commission into AGW science
see his article here:
http://www.quadrant.org.au/blogs/doomed-planet/2010/09/climate-royal-commission

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

“a report with detailed explanatory information as to why a particular dynamic forecasting model or system was chosen for use in Australia. The report should be completed by the end of 2010”. It would not have mattered which GCM (they chose UKMO core) the CSIRO (or NIWA) went with from the current models because natural cycles are not parameterized in any configurations. The only way that for example, a climate shift can be simulated (or mimiced) is to use Stochastic modeling where statistical methods and probability are used to generate random outcomes. There is no predictive capability from this approach however, because there is no way to get the timing right as is the case with volcanic activity in GCMs. A better approach IMO is to incorporate natural cycles in the parameters of GCMs. But then supercomputers are not required for prediction as Ian Holton of Holton Weather Forecasting Pty Ltd has demonstrated. And not just Ian Holton, This seen at JoNova:- Binny: November 24th, 2010 at 7:59 am In 2004 I was reading a report by the person who surveyed the site of the Wivenhoe Dam in Brisbane I think the report… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

It seems to be that the most costly, ineffectual and redundant option is opted for just at the end of a crisis immediately prior to the situation turning around.

We have a classic example in New Zealand of a Synfuel plant the the govt funded at great expense then sold for a pittance once the end of the 70s oil crisis rendered it uneconomic.

I was just starting work in ’73 so in my youthful wisdom I thought the Synfuel plant was a wonderful idea.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Warwick Hughes assessment:

“…this Inquiry is now dead and buried”

http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=705

“I have just been told by a House of Reps Clerk that – “Due to the change in Committee allocations, there is no longer a Standing Committee on Industry, Science and Innovation.” I think this code for – “…this Inquiry is now dead and buried”.

IMHO this so called “Inquiry” was all just a thinly veiled campaign to justify wringing more taxpayers money from Govt to fund BoM ongoing incompetence.”

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Capturing A Chinook

5:50AM Chinook Update
Posted on December 3, 2010 by stevengoddard

Houses on one side of Harmony Rd. are almost 30 degrees warmer than houses on the other side of the street.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Intense La Nina pattern delivers more rain than usual # From: The Australian # December 04, 2010 The most powerful incarnation of La Nina in more than three decades has produced one of Australia’s wettest years. The World Meteorological Organisation yesterday released data that showed the global average temperature this year was 0.55C warmer than pre-1990 averages — making it the third-hottest in recorded history. However, Australia bucked the trend because of weather events in the Pacific Ocean. A powerful La Nina, characterised by a fall in surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and heavy rains, has been blamed for the flooding that has plagued the eastern states since August. The rain has also been attributed to cool weather, with inland Australia one of the few places in the world to record below-average temperatures this year. David Jones, the head of the Bureau of Meteorology’s climate analysis office, said the rains were expected to continue through to autumn, on the basis that La Nina events usually lasted for a year. “Australia at the moment is tracking its third-wettest year on record and there’s still another month to go, so we won’t exactly know… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

The heavy snow showers that hit Chicago Saturday have left the area, but portions of northwest Indiana could see an additional eight inches of lake effect snow before the system completely passes Sunday afternoon. Dec 5 2010 The snowstorm dropped more than five inches on the Chicago area Saturday and canceled more than 325 flights. Bitter cold temperatures are expected to replace the snow this week. A winter storm advisory remains in effect until 6 a.m. Sunday for Lake County, Ind., according to the National Weather Service’s website. The advisory means periods of snow will cause travel difficulties and motorists should prepare for snow-covered roads and limited visibilities. Lake effect snow along the Lake Michigan shore is expected to shift from the Illinois shore into Indiana, the weather service said. As much as five additional inches of snow is possible, but amounts may vary greatly over short distances. Further east, a more serious lake effect snow warning will remain in effect until 9 a.m. for Porter County, Ind., the weather service said. As much as eight additional inches of snow are possible in this area, which includes Valparaiso, Ind. Lake-effect snow showers typically… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Look what we have here – conflicting weather forecasts Crystal ball malfunctions in both cases methinks Watch this space. ——————————————————————————————————————– NZ faces long hot summer Fri, 03 Dec 2010 2:37p.m.– TV3 New Zealand is in for a long, hot summer as La Nina hits our shores, says the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa). Already, temperatures have soared across the country in late November, a pattern likely to continue until March, principal scientist James Renwick said today. “In November, pretty much all of the country, the South Island and most of the North Island away from the coast, was quite a bit warmer than normal. Over summer, we’re expecting things to be on the warmer side in most places,” he told NZPA. He said the current warm weather pattern — along with another La Nina heatwave in the late 80s — was the strongest in about 50 years. People could expect temperatures to be several degrees Celsius above normal, taking some regions into the 30s “from time to time”. While good news for holiday-makers, it was not so good for Northland or Waikato farmers already concerned about dry conditions, he said.… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Cold Blast Strains Farmers * DECEMBER 8, 2010 – WSJ Early Frost Kills Crops in South, Drives Up Prices as Growers Try to Shield Produce An unusually early blast of cold air is cloaking the southeast, forcing farmers to toil through the night to save their livestock and crops of strawberries, tender green beans and sweet corn. In parts of Florida, hit Tuesday morning with a freeze not seen this early since 1937, some growers were already reporting severe frost burn and ruined plantings, reducing supply and driving up prices for winter vegetables amid the holiday season. Florida growers endured a freeze and difficult spell of weather in January, “but now, the timing is more unfortunate because we are gearing up to put vegetables out for peoples’ holiday meals,” said Lisa Lochridge, spokeswoman for the Florida Fruit & Vegetable Association. The association was still determining total loss on Tuesday. In Palm Beach County, the nation’s top producer of winter vegetables, the price of a bushel of green beans soared 62% Tuesday to between $24 and $26, compared to $14 to $16 over the weekend, said J.D. Poole, vice president of Pioneer Growers Cooperative… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

“Gore effect” strikes Cancun Climate Conference 3 days in a row

Posted on December 8, 2010 by Anthony Watts

From the “weather is not climate department” – New record low temperatures set in Cancun for three straight days, and more new low temperature records are possible this week.

Dr. Roy Spencer, who is in Cancun representing climate skepticism on behalf of CFACT writes on his blog:

Today’s my first full day in Cancun at COP-16, and as I emerged from my hotel room I was greeted by a brisk, dry, cool Canadian breeze.

It was 54 deg. F in Cancun this morning — a record low for the date. (BTW, Cancun is nowhere near Canada).

Al Gore is not supposed to be here…but it could be that the Gore Effect has announced his secret arrival. We will check into this.

Here’s the record for today from Weather Underground:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/08/gore-effect-strikes-cancun-climate-conference-3-days-in-a-row/

val majkus
Guest
val majkus

the most important story today in my view is the one I put on News and I hope that Richard T will do a special article on it http://www.climatedepot.com/a/9035/SPECIAL-REPORT-More-Than-1000-International-Scientists-Dissent-Over-ManMade-Global-Warming-Claims–Challenge-UN-IPCC–Gore a couple of quotes More than 1000 dissenting scientists (updates previous 700 scientist report) from around the globe have now challenged man-made global warming claims made by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and former Vice President Al Gore. This new 2010 320-page Climate Depot Special Report — updated from 2007’s groundbreaking U.S. Senate Report of over 400 scientists who voiced skepticism about the so-called global warming “consensus” — features the skeptical voices of over 1000 international scientists, including many current and former UN IPCC scientists, who have now turned against the UN IPCC. This updated 2010 report includes a dramatic increase of over 300 additional (and growing) scientists and climate researchers since the last update in March 2009. This report’s release coincides with the 2010 UN global warming summit being held in Cancun. Background: Only 52 Scientists Participated in UN IPCC Summary … The notion of “hundreds” or “thousands” of UN scientists agreeing to a scientific statement does not hold… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

This is huge Val – the quotes and links are amazing. I follow this guys work:-
—————————————————————————————————————————
Prominent Geologist Dr. Easterbrook Slams Geological Society of America’s climate statement ‘as easily refuted by data that clearly shows no correlation between CO2 and global climate change’ visit site

Claims are ‘not supported by any tangible data at all’ — To embrace a dogma with no attempt to recognize any data contrary to CO2 is a very unscientific approach’
—————————————————————————————————————————-
The more than 300 additional scientists added to this report since March 2009 (21 months ago), represents an average of nearly four skeptical scientists a week speaking out publicly. The well over 1000 dissenting scientists are almost 20 times the number of UN scientists (52) who authored the media-hyped IPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers.
—————————————————————————————————————————-
Big news Richard T. All the names that the warmists are trying to swat dawn.

val majkus
Guest
val majkus

Another big story to emerge today: It increasingly appears that the science is just a pretext and the stakes are much larger: http://sppiblog.org/news/the-abdication-of-the-west reported by Lord Monckton: The abdication of the West December 9th, 2010 The Viscount Monckton of Brenchley From the SPPI Blog Cancun, Mexico I usually add some gentle humor to these reports. Not today. Read this and weep. Notwithstanding the carefully-orchestrated propaganda to the effect that nothing much will be decided at the UN climate conference here in Cancun, the decisions to be made here this week signal nothing less than the abdication of the West. The governing class in what was once proudly known as the Free World is silently, casually letting go of liberty, prosperity, and even democracy itself. No one in the mainstream media will tell you this, not so much because they do not see as because they do not bl**dy care. The 33-page Note (FCCC/AWGLCA/2010/CRP.2) by the Chairman of the “Ad-Hoc Working Group on Long-Term Co-operative Action under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change”, entitled Possible elements of the outcome, reveals all. Or, rather, it reveals nothing, unless one understands what the complex,… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Val, good item but “Meteorology” is not the place for it.

It’s a “UN” or “News” category item.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

What La Nina means for NZ By Philip Duncan – NZH 10:30 AM Wednesday Dec 8, 2010 For many of us it’s hard to get our heads around what La Niña actually means for New Zealand and lately there have been many news stories at WeatherWatch.co.nz and across the media with several different predictions. WeatherWatch.co.nz has taken the main points to explain why some news headlines have warned of “Looming La Niña droughts” while others say “Looming La Niña rains”. Firstly it’s important to understand what La Niña is overall: La Niña is when the cold pool of water in the eastern Pacific intensifies. This is mostly EAST of the International Dateline and around the equator – so well away from New Zealand. During El Niño (the opposite of La Niña) the warm water spreads from the west Pacific and the Indian Ocean and into to the east Pacific. (So, the opposite of what we currently have now). It takes the rain with it, causing extensive drought in the western Pacific and brings rainfall to the normally dry eastern Pacific. To help understand what is currently happening to the sea temperatures during this… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Flooding disaster across east Australia 8:00 AM Friday Dec 10, 2010 – NZH SYDNEY – Four deaths have been reported in severe flooding which has hit the eastern states of Australia this week. The latest victim was in Queensland. Police have recovered the body of a 15-year-old boy who drowned at a flooded water hole on the Sunshine Coast. Yesterday a man’s body was retrieved from a river at Nebo, west of Mackay. Witnesses said the impatient driver passed other cars stopped on the roadside waiting for the floodwaters to subside. An 81-year-old man also died when his ute was swept off a flooded causeway and into a creek on Friday night. And a 55-year-old woman died when her car was swept off a flooded roadway near Dysart, north-west of Rockhampton in central Queensland, last week. Reports are calling NSW’s floods the worst inundation to hit the state in 50 years. The swollen Queanbeyan River yesterday peaked in the NSW city neighbouring Canberra but residents forced to evacuate were not expected to be allowed home until late last night at the earliest. If there is more rain they could be stranded for even… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Storm socks Midwest, cancels flights, closes roads Dec 13 2010 – Associated Press CHICAGO – A powerful winter storm roared across the upper Midwest on Sunday with high winds and mounds of snow closing roads in several states and canceling more than 1,400 flights in Chicago. At least one weather-related death was reported Sunday as the storm system that dumped nearly 2 feet of snow in parts of Minnesota and caused the Metrodome’s inflatable, Teflon roof to collapse moved east. The Minnesota Vikings-New York Giants game was pushed to Monday night at Detroit’s Ford Field. A blizzard warning was in effect Sunday for parts of eastern Iowa, southeastern Wisconsin, northwestern Illinois, and northern Michigan, according to the National Weather Service. Surrounding areas, including Chicago, were under winter storm warnings. “It’s going to be blustery,” said Ben Deubelbeiss, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Romeoville, Ill. The winter weather, with blowing snow that severely limited visibility, wreaked havoc on air and road travel. In the Chicago area, wind gusts of up to 50 mph, temperatures in the teens, wind chills well below zero were expected along with up to 8 inches of… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

“Gore Effect” on Steroids: Six straight days of record low temperatures during COP16 in Cancun Mexico – more coming

Posted on December 10, 2010 by Anthony Watts

The irony, it burns. Do you think maybe Gaia is trying to send the U.N. and the delegates a message? One record low was funny, three in a row was hilarious, a new record low for the month of December was ROFL, but now six straight days of record lows during the U.N. COP16 Global Warming conference? That’s galactically inconvenient. The whole month so far has averaged below normal:

Here’s today from Weather Underground, Today’s low was 55°F and the old record was 60°F in 1999:

Continues………….

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

From the Renwick/TV3 forecast

“La Nina brings ………….. drier air”

97% humidity in Auckland today.

The Duncan/NZ Herald forecast is looking a better bet.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

The rains are here.

Duncan/NZ Herald ……….2

Renwick/TV3………………….0

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Less snow but better snowmakers for skifields 1:13 PM Thursday Dec 16, 2010 – NZH New Zealand will have less snow by the end of the century, but not as little as initially thought, and better snow-making machines will help skifields cope, according to new climate modelling by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa). It was the first time a quantitative assessment of the potential impact of climate change on snow levels has been done in New Zealand. Niwa scientists created three different emissions scenarios, which were used to calculate how the different levels of climate change could affect snow levels for the years 2030-2049 and 2080-2099. They found: * On average, at nearly all elevations, there will be a gradual decrease in snow as the century progresses. * The decrease is more marked at elevations below 1000m. Depending on skifield location and elevation, under a warmer climate change scenario, by 2090, on average, current maximum snow depths at the upper elevation sites will be further reduced, to approximately 79 per cent to 35 per cent. The reductions were less marked for mid-range climate change scenario. “Fortunately for New Zealand,… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

UK Freeze

Wind plot showing Arctic winds coming down across UK then on to Mediterranean.

Friday 17 Dec 2010

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

New Zealand snow areas confident they will adapt to any risks from climate change NIWA News New climate modelling shows seasonal snow levels at New Zealand ski areas will be reduced by the effects of climate change in the coming years, but the good news is the loss may actually be less than originally anticipated and we should be able to continue to make snow, even under a more extreme climate scenario. This is the first time a quantitative assessment of the potential impact of climate change on snow levels has been done in New Zealand. Using global climate trend data, taken from the climate models used for the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, NIWA scientists created three different emissions scenarios. These were then fed into a model specifically designed for New Zealand conditions, to show how the different scenarios could impact on snow levels for the 2040s (2030-2049) and the 2090s (2080-2099). Results were provided both for New Zealand as a whole and for individual ski areas. The results show: Nationally: * On average, at nearly all elevation levels, there will be a gradual decrease in snow… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

UK Freeze

Map showing the North/South divide

Saturday 18 Dec 2010

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Summer snow falls at Perisher

20 Dec, 2010 10:30 AM – The Newcastle Herald

10 mm snow at Charlotte Pass Damaging winds predicted in Sydney, Hunter, Illawarra, Tablelands Christmas Day to be mostly sunny, 26 degrees

Snow is falling on the Snowy Mountains, Sydneysiders are bracing for damaging winds and much of the state’s east woke up to rain today.

It is hard to believe it’s summer in NSW, let alone Christmas.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Georgina Griffiths (NIWA) desperately wants us all to know that NZ “is running HOT HOT” (heard on TV3) but makes a wet prediction contrary to Renwick’s dry – they can’t get their story straight in-house.
———————————————————————————————————————
NZ set for humid summer

5:30 AM Saturday Dec 25, 2010 – NZH

New Zealand is set for a humid summer, with experts predicting a warm and wet January and February.

Many parts of the country have already experienced warmer than usual weather for this time of year, and temperatures are going to continue to rise.

“We’ve been predicting average or above average temperatures for all of New Zealand. We’re certainly running about a degree and a half warmer than normal so far,” said National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research’s climate scientist Georgina Griffiths.

[Snip]

Although beachgoers will welcome the warmer weather, their spirits may be dampened by the amount of rain predicted for the summer months.

“That expectation of wet weather is in the North and East – Bay of Plenty, Gisborne, Auckland, Northland, Coromandel – they’re expecting normal to above normal rainfall for the whole season,” said Griffiths.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Could the Australian BOM get it more wrong? Posted on December 23rd, 2010 – JoNova Warwick Hughes has spotted a neat trifecta: whether it be rain, maximums or minimums, the BOM gets it wrong. For this spring the Australian BOM predicted it would be dry and warm, instead we got very wet and quite cold. The models are so bad on a regional basis, it’s uncannily like they are almost useful… if they call things “dry”, expect “wet”. On August 24 the Australian BOM had pretty much no idea that any unusual wetness was headed their way. Toss a coin, 50:50, yes or no. Spring 2010 was going to be “average”, except in SW Western Australia where they claimed “a wetter than normal spring is favoured.” What follows were 100 year floods, or at least above average rain to nearly every part of the nation bar the part that was supposed to be getting more rainfall. [Snip] How many billions have we lost thanks to farmers who might have been able to harvest early, or plant different crops, or avoid seeding in droughts, or any one of a thousand other choices that would… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Maverick Outwits Climate Science in Global Warming Predictions Game

by John O’Sullivan, guest post at Climate Realists

December 23rd 2010

As Britain’s top independent forecaster (a skeptic) again outwits his global warming adversaries in weather prediction, we examine what really separates the men from the boys in this hot topic.

Award Winning maverick forecaster, Piers Corbyn’s unparalled success in outperforming his rivals (global warming believers) is winning him deserved column inches in the British press.

The man who, in 2010 predicted a trio of major rare events (Pakistan floods, Moscow heatwave, Britain’s brutal winter) gives us a rare glimpse into why he’s so successful, to the great embarrassment of his main rivals, the Met Office.

continues………

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

NIWA Seasonal Climate Outlook: December 2010 – February 2011

Seasonal rainfall is likely to be below normal in the western South Island, normal or below normal in the north of the South Island, normal or above normal in the north and east of the North Island, and normal elsewhere. On average, La Niña summers tend to exhibit a gradient in rainfall in the north and east of the North Island, tending to be wetter in eastern Northland, coastal Bay of Plenty and Gisborne, and drier farther south and inland. Although rainfall is likely to be normal or above normal in the north and east of the North Island, summer soil moisture levels and river flows are likely to be normal or below normal in those regions, because of the already dry conditions. River flows and soil moisture levels are very likely to be below normal in the west and south of the South Island, and are likely to be near normal or below normal in all other regions, according to the National Climate Centre’s latest seasonal outlook.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

“normal or below normal in the north of the South Island”

Clean up begins after storm inflicts worst flooding in 150 years

5:30 AM Thursday Dec 30, 2010

The clean-up has begun after Tuesday’s fast-moving storm brought heavy rain and strong winds to the South Island – and caused the worst flooding in 150 years in Golden Bay.

The extent of the damage to roads and infrastructure in Tasman and Marlborough is still not clear, but councils and civil defence staff in the regions met yesterday to organise the clean-up.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10697050

NIWA can’t buy a trick.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

China, US wheat crops face ‘serious trouble’
April 1, 2011 – 5:36PM

Wheat crops in China, the world’s biggest consumer, and the US, the largest exporter, face “serious trouble” if La Nina weather patterns linger, extending damage to the nations’ harvests, British Weather Services said.

The two countries will be the last to emerge from the dry conditions linked to the weather event, which has also caused heavy flooding in Australia and Canada and drought in Argentina.

Dry weather will linger for the next two months, parching wheat crops that have already deteriorated in Texas and Oklahoma, and are preventing much-needed rains from reaching northern China, British Weather Services and forecaster Telvent DTN Inc. said.

Continues…..

http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/china-us-wheat-crops-face-serious-trouble-20110401-1crfq.html

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Atmospheric Physics In 100 Words Or Less

Posted on April 19, 2011 by stevengoddard

The Sun heats the surface of the Earth. Warm air at the surface is less dense than the cold air above it, causing convection. The rising air expands and cools – while the sinking air compresses and heats. If the lapse rate is greater than the adiabatic lapse rate (10C per km) the air is unstable and storms can form. If the lapse rate is less than the adiabatic lapse rate, the air is stable and storms don’t form (i.e. inversion.)

When cold air overrides warm moist air (like in North Carolina over the weekend) the lapse rate gets very large and violent storms form.

Blaming global warming for tornadoes is freaking stupid (i.e. Time Magazine) because tornadoes usually require passage of a strong cold front.

http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/04/19/atmospheric-physics-in-100-words-or-less/

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Et tu, Bacteria? causing climate change Germy with a chance of hail Aerial microbes can trigger precipitation By Janet Raloff Web edition : Tuesday, May 24th, 2011 [Snip] Alexander Michaud’s new research was triggered by a June storm that pummeled Montana State University’s campus in Bozeman last year with golf ball–sized and larger hailstones. The microbial ecologist normally studies subglacial aquatic environments in Antarctica. But after saving 27 of the hailstones, he says, “I suddenly realized, no one had really ever thought about studying hailstones — in a layered sense — for biology.” So his team dissected the icy balls, along with hundreds of smaller ones collected during a July hail storm south of campus. Michaud now reports finding germs throughout, with the highest concentrations by far — some 1,000 cells per milliliter of meltwater — in the hailstones’ cores. Since at least the 1980s, scientists have argued that some share of clouds, and their precipitation, likely traces to microbes. Their reasoning: Strong winds can loft germs many kilometers into the sky. And since the 1970s, agricultural scientists have recognized that certain compounds made by microbes serve as efficient water magnets around which… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

WORLD FROM SPACE Heavy Snow In New Zealand

Widespread snow cover over New Zealand’s South Island as well as parts of the country’s North Island can be seen in these natural-colour images taken on Wednesday and Thursday, by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite.

Heavy snow fell in many parts of the North and South Islands of New Zealand on Monday and Tuesday, causing major disruption, closing schools, roads and airports.

Monday was the coldest day ever recorded in Auckland, New Zealand’s largest city. The last time snow settled on the ground in Auckland was in 1939. However, overall temperatures in New Zealand were colder and the quantity of snow was a lot worse in the 1930 event, according to weather historian Erick Brenstrom.

http://www.irishweatheronline.com/news/space/world-from-space/world-from-space-heavy-snow-in-new-zealand/32571.html

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Alps could become snow-free by 2050 AUSTRALIA’S ski slopes could be completely bare of natural winter snow by 2050 unless concerted action is taken against global warming, according to a government-commissioned report that paints a grim picture of the effects of climate change on alpine areas. The report, Caring for our Australian Alps Catchments, has found the Alps, which stretch from Victoria through New South Wales to the Australian Capital Territory, face an average temperature rise of between 0.6 and 2.9 degrees by 2050, depending on how much action the international community takes to combat climate change. […] Rain, snow and other precipitation will decrease up to 24 per cent over the next four decades, accompanied by more bushfires, droughts, severe storms and rapid runoff, causing heavy erosion. […] ”The scenario that is most likely is that there will be less snow both in total and in area, and that we shift more to summer rainfall,” said study co-author Roger Good, a retired botanist with the NSW government. ”There won’t be snow that sits around and slowly melts as there has been in the past. There will be more storm events in summer… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Ozone hole grows to near record size

THE Antarctic ozone hole, yawning open longer than usual, is topping out this year as one of the larger holes ever recorded.

[…]

”Year to year variability in the weather can effect the scale of the ozone hole significantly,”

[…]

The UN’s Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion report concluded that the Antarctic hole drove changes in surface winds over southern hemisphere mid and high latitudes, and was linked to warming of the Southern Ocean.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/ozone-hole-grows-to-near-record-size-20111010-1lhmd.html#ixzz1aS9IHsyx

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

UK Met Office Pours Cold Water On Severe Winter 2011-12 Forecasts by Mark Dunphy

The UK Met Office has distanced itself from recent media reports that the UK and Ireland are set for an ‘Arctic Winter’. The UKMO, which stopped issuing seasonal forecasts in 2010, also has said that recent long range forecasts by other agencies “bear no relation to the kinds of weather that forecasters at the Met Office are currently expecting”.

>>>>>>>>

http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=8490&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ClimaterealistsNewsBlog+%28ClimateRealists+News+Blog%29

Time will tell.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

More NIWA BS.

Niwa predicts mild La Nina summer

Sea surface temperatures are likely to remain above average to the northeast of the North Island during summer, but near average elsewhere about the New Zealand region.

http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/niwa-predicts-mild-nina-summer-4583088

The SST anomaly (at this date) shows that you have to go waaay northeast to find the warmer anomaly in amongst the surrounding cooler water.

Same plot shows “near average” temperature about the NZ region is -1.8 C cooler than normal.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

Spin it up NIWA.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Just heard these words on TV3 news – “NIWA has admitted it got the summer forecast wrong”.

January 2012 update: http://www.niwa.co.nz/new-zealand-climate-update-151-january-2012

“Seasonal Climate Outlook: December 2011 – February 2012” http://www.niwa.co.nz/current-climate-november-2011

“In this example the climate models suggest that below average conditions are likely (50% chance of occurrence)”

“…the chance of normal or above normal is also shown (30% and 20% respectively)”

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Niwa concedes summer outlook off the mark Niwa has conceded last month’s record-breaking rain and flooding was a far cry from the average rainfall predicted in its summer weather outlook. The outlook for November to January was for near-normal rainfall across the country, with temperatures near average in the North Island and above average in the South Island. Instead, wet weather lashed the country and a state of emergency was declared in Nelson last month following record-breaking rainfalls that closed roads, caused flooding and slips and forced households to evacuate. Niwa principal climate scientist James Renwick today said the pre-summer outlook did not turn out quite as expected, but……. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10778465 Are the New Zealand NIWA Outlooks as useless as those of the Australian BoM ? January 8th, 2012 by Warwick Hughes Readers have pointed out to me the huge rain totals for various parts of Aotearoa for December 2011. So I checked the NIWA 3 month Outlook for December-February issued on 1st Dec 2011. [See images] http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=1246 See the top image titled:- “Seasonal Climate Outlook: December 2011 – February 2012″ In the notes at the bottom of the image are the immortal words:-… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

This will be interesting……

Does mild weather herald first signs of spring?

By Fiona Murray BBC News 9 January 2012

With some temperatures for January getting into double figures and as we throw off our hats, scarves and gloves on many of those days – we could be forgiven for thinking spring has sprung.

But we are still officially in winter. Spring does not start until March.

[…]

So with climate change can we expect to see more of the mild temperatures?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-16469487

Probably not this year……

Accelerating Global Warming Getting Ready To Shock-Freeze Europe!

By P Gosselin on 29. January 2012

[See plot]

Forecast temperature anomaly for January 27 – February 4 (This chart will be turning purple in the days ahead)

Reader DirkH brings our attention to a weather warning for the next two weeks from wetter.t-online.de, which warns that temperatures in parts of Germany may plunge to 25°C below zero.

http://notrickszone.com/2012/01/29/accelerating-global-warming-geeting-ready-to-shock-freeze-europe/

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Reality vs CSIRO/BOM, Queensland Gov, South East Australian Climate Initiative, Flannery, Climate Institute/Karoly debacle at ‘Australia’ here:-

https://www.climateconversation.org.nz/open-threads/climate/regions/australia/comment-page-2/#comment-78042

de·ba·cle/diˈbakəl/
Noun:
A sudden and ignominious failure; a fiasco.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Sure enough, we can add Glenshesk daffodils in County Antrim Northern Ireland to the list of untrustworthy weather forecasters (UK Met, NIWA, CSIRO, BOM).

Glenshesk River
Current Weather: Temperature 0C
Tomorrow: High 1C, Low -2C

http://www.virtualtenby.co.uk/weather-forecast.asp?weather=Glenshesk%20River

Europe’s deadly cold snap maintains grip

# Dozens of people are reported to have been killed by exposure to the cold or in weather-related accidents.

# Temperatures in Poland have fallen to as low as -33C (-27F) in the past few days.

# Another 12 people froze to death across Poland on Thursday night, according to police, bringing the total killed there during this cold snap to 30.

# The snow and ice has meant widespread delays and cancellations to European flights in recent days, with the closure of a number of British airports.

# Temperatures are an average 5C-10C below average in some major cities.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11907045

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Snowdrops, bees and flies.in Northern Ireland too apparently.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

And don’t trust butterfly species throughout the British Isles for weather tips either.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Earth Simulator Supercomputer Used to Forecast 2012 Climate Patterns January 31, 2012 TOKYO, Jan. 31 –Professor Toshio Yamagata, Dean of University of Tokyo Graduate School of Science and Head of the Application Laboratory of Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), has announced seasonal climate predictions for 2012 which are strongly influenced by only recently understood climate variations in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. […] Prof. Yamagata used the JAMSTEC giant Earth Simulator supercomputer – one of the largest and fastest computers on the planet – to develop his new model of climate change, one that combines meteorology and oceanography. Supported by his own version of a complex atmosphere-and-ocean-based model (the SINTEX-F1 coupled general circulation model), he discovered and confirmed the new phenomenon in the Indian Ocean that is similar to the El Nino and La Nina phenomena in the Pacific Ocean. Because the newly discovered phenomenon oscillates between “positive” and “negative” sea surface temperature patterns, he named it “Indian Ocean Dipole”. By using the Earth Simulator to run his new model of climate variations, the group, led by Prof. Yamagata, succeeded in making the world’s first prediction of the Indian Ocean… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Sea Surface Temperature in Indian Ocean Acts as Predictor for Following Year’s El Niño – Influence of Indian Ocean Dipole on El Niño First Revealed – Japan Agency for Marine-earth Science and Technology Graduate School of Science, the University of Tokyo February 22, 2010 Press Release Overview El Niño and La Niña events in the tropical Pacific Ocean induce anomalous weather patterns around the world, with significant socio-economic impacts. The occurrence of El Niño/La Niña now may have become more predictable, thanks to the study conducted by a team of scientists from the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology(JAMSTEC), Graduate School of Science of the University of Tokyo, and the French Research Institute for Exploration of the Sea(IFREMER).The team confirmed that the El Niño/La Niña occurrence is strongly influenced by the negative/positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole(*1), the Indian Ocean equivalent of ENSO, and its occurrence is predictable with great precision beyond a year ahead, by use of sea surface temperature (SST) data in the Indian Ocean. Combined with an IOD forecast model, the finding will serve to increase the predictability of climate fluctuations responsible for abnormal weather patterns, as early… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Oops, the paper was published in 2010:-

‘Influence of the state of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the following year’s El Niño’

Izumo et al 2010

http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00002/11304/7833.pdf

Supplementary Information

http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00002/11304/7832.pdf

Makes a good companion for:-

‘Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature’

J. D. McLean, C. R. de Freitas and R. M. Carter 2009

http://www.auscsc.org.au/images/PDF/influenceofenso.pdf

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

I note that Bryan Leyland’s prediction of “continued cool conditions until Aug 2012 at least” is consistent with the JAMSTEC AL prediction of “A La Nina condition will continue in the [NH] winter and spring, and begin to dissipate in the [NH] summer”

http://web.me.com/bryanleyland/Site_3/Global_Cooling.html

Hard to see where the warm water will come from for an EL Nino of any significance given there’s no large warm pool north of Australia at present:-

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

I’m sure I recall that there was a large warm pool north of Australia prior to the last 09/10 El Nino.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Discussion and comparison of recent conditions with historic La Niña events Klaus Wolter Stay tuned for the next update (by March 10th, or earlier – ICOADS appears to be less threatened for now [funding issues]) to see where the MEI will be heading next. La Niña has staged a comeback similar to 2008-09, and consistent with expectations formulated right here well over a year ago: big La Niña events have a strong tendency to re-emerge after ‘taking time off’ during northern hemispheric summer. Based on current atmosphere-ocean conditions, I believe the odds for this La Niña event to continue right through early summer (June-July 2012) are just about 50%. Beyond that, it is worth noting that four of the ten two-year La Niña events between 1900 and 2009 ended up as a three-year event, so I would put the odds for this to occur in 2012-13 at 40% right now. The remaining six cases all switched to El Niño, leaving not a single ENSO-neutral case. The year 2012 promises to remain “interesting”. If and when something new transpires on the fate of ICOADS and the MEI, I will communicate it right on this… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 9 February 2012 ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory Synopsis: La Niña is likely to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during March-May 2012. A majority of models predict La Niña to weaken through the rest of the Northern Hemisphere winter 2011-12, and then to dissipate during the spring 2012 (Fig. 6). http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf The Southern Oscillation Index, or SOI, gives an indication of the development and intensity of El Niño or La Niña events in the Pacific Ocean. The SOI is calculated using the pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin. Sustained negative values of the SOI greater than −8 often indicate El Niño episodes. These negative values are usually accompanied by sustained warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, a decrease in the strength of the Pacific Trade Winds, and a reduction in winter and spring rainfall over much of eastern Australia and the Top End. You can read more about historical El Niño events and their effect on Australia in the Detailed analysis of past El Niño events. Sustainted positive values… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Parodies that come to mind:-

‘Desperately Seeking Nino’

‘Finding Nino’

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)
Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Fig. 6 Model ENSO Predictions from Jan 2012:-

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/figure6.gif

SST indices remained near -1.C in the Niño-3.4 and Niño-4 regions Jan 2012.

The UKMO model (think NIWA) was already at -0.5 C Jan but there’s basically 3 predictions on track in the graph:

1) Dynamic average (climate models);

2) Statistical average; and,

3) CPC/IRI consensus forecast

DYN AVE and STAT AVE are at about 0 C by Nov 2012 but CPC CON is at -0.25 C.

Fig 5 was referenced and linked from this page:-

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

From there, there’s a link to: CPC/IRI consensus forecast:-

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/figure1.html

Official Early-Feb CPC/IRI Consensus Probabilistic ENSO Forecst

–Made in Feb 2012–

Season SON 2012 (Sept-Oct-Nov)

31% La Niña

37% Neutral

32% El Niño

Bets anyone?

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Norwegeian Climate Scientist Tore Furevik Says Cooling “La Niña Will Not Be Going Away”

It wasn’t all that long ago when a number of climate scientists were projecting the Earth would soon fall into an almost permanent, increasing El Niño mode, where the surface temperatures of the equatorial Pacific would always be like what we saw in 1998 – all man-made.

Today a number of German-language papers are reporting that Norwegian scientist Tore Furevik of the Bjerknes Centre of the University of Bergen says he expects the opposite to happen at least this year. Furevik says that La Niña may come back for third straight year. “The situation is simlar to the previous year,” he says.

Die Welt here writes that “there are no signs that La Nina is going to disappear anytime soon” and that according to Norwegian experts “it will occur even more strongly than in 2011″

[…]

Furevik’s La Niña forecast contradicts the experts’ forecast, where an ensemble of models show the trend towards an El Niño for the 2nd half of the year:

>>>>>>>>>>>

http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=9219&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ClimaterealistsNewsBlog+%28ClimateRealists+News+Blog%29

The essence of Gareth Renowden’s nightmares – and the cause of James Hansen’s heart palpitations.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Check this out from Paul Vaughn at JN

Zonal Wind Vertical Profile, 12 months, Jan – Dec: http://i51.tinypic.com/34xouhx.png (let it load)

According to Paul:-

“At cross-ENSO Schwabe-timescale, the solar cycle spatiotemporally modulates zonal westerly winds — i.e. it cyclically ( http://i46.tinypic.com/2yw7711.png ) drives variations in this pattern:”

Whew.

http://joannenova.com.au/2012/06/has-north-victoria-cooled-not-warmed-and-is-that-a-solar-cycle-signal-we-see/#comments

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

British supercomputer botches weather forecasts Written by Jonathan DuHamel, Tucson Citizen | June 27 2012 The British Meteorological Office has a new weather-forecasting super-computer built at a cost of 41 million pounds sterling (approximately $65 million) . The computer is touted to be more powerful than 100,000 standard PCs, is capable of 1,000 billion calculations every second, and uses 1.2 megawatts of energy to run – enough to power a small town. The head of the Met office claims that this new computer “will enable the Met Office to deliver more accurate forecasts, from hours to a century ahead.” Let’s see how it is doing so far. On 23 March 2012, the computer produced a forecast for the next three months: “The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favors drier-than-average conditions for April-May-June as a whole, and also slightly favors April being the driest of the 3 months. With this forecast, the water resources situation in southern, eastern and central England is likely to deteriorate further during the April-May-June period.” And here is what happened: April: 2012 had wettest April for 100 years, Met Office says “It has been the wettest April in… Read more »

Andy
Guest
Andy

I had the pleasure of experiencing the “wettest ever drought” first hand in the UK

There were still hosepipe bans in place whilst the paddocks were waterlogged.
Of course, the real failure was the lack of investment in infrastructure, but why waste a good “climate change” story?

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Ha! Media willing up a “scorching” El Nino, and a farmers pragmatic response:-

Rising ocean temperatures have tide turning in favour of scorching sibling El Nino

OUR dams are full, the lambs are fat and the sprinklers are running again. But weather experts are warning Australia’s east coast to brace for a return to dry conditions, perhaps even drought, as another El Nino event looms.

[…]

Wayne Dunford, a farmer who runs sheep and grows crops on his property west of Parkes, described the dry predictions as ”a blip in the weather pattern”.

”You don’t metaphorically go and slash your wrists because the [climate indicators] have fallen … because that happens quite often, and it doesn’t mean we are going into another drought,” he said.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/rising-ocean-temperatures-have-tide-turning-in-favour-of-scorching-sibling-el-nino-20120703-21fjs.html#ixzz1zcdblfAa

This El Nino has as much and possibly greater probability to be short-lived, weak and back to neutral around early new year as it has to be long-lived, strong and regime changing..

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Yet Another Met Office Fail

October 7, 2012. By Paul Homewood

“With this level of competence, do they seriously expect us to believe their predictions for the end of the century?”

http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2012/10/07/yet-another-met-office-fail-2/

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Snow blankets the greater Sydney region

12 October, 2012

Snow has fallen across a large part of NSW and the ACT, closing roads and disrupting public transport.

Goulburn residents woke to snow this morning, as did people in Katoomba, Mt Blackheath, Mt Victoria and Mittagong. There have been reports of snow in the Blue Mountains and Southern Highlands, while Canberra has received 10 centimetres.

Two major roads have been closed by the snow – The Great Western Highway in both directions at Wentworth Falls, and Bell’s Line of Road at mt Tomah. Sydney Ferries has cancelled the Manly service due to the weather, and trains and buses have also been affected.

Yesterday, South Australia witnessed a once-in-a-century October snowfall.

The Bureau of Meteorology says the snow is a result of a very cold air mass that has moved across NSW. The air mass has caused a deep low to form on the south coast which has produced the snow.

>>>>>>>>

http://www.abc.net.au/local/stories/2012/10/12/3609277.htm

A very cold air mass as the result of a hurricane at the bottom of the Indian Ocean last week methinks.

Andy
Guest
Andy

From the “weather is not climate” department, we have snow at The Lecht today (a small Scottish ski area near Aberdeen) – only October!

and Livigno, Italy is looking somewhat white.

Meanwhile, in South Canterbury NZ, we got a good 30cm of fresh on Saturday. The snowline was down to about 700m above sea level

Andy
Guest
Andy

but from Sky news:

Grim Climate Change Prediction For Oz Skiers

Global warming may make snowfall at Australia’s ski resorts a thing of the past, leaving fans of the white stuff worried

http://news.sky.com/story/997134/grim-climate-change-prediction-for-oz-skiers

and without a hint of irony, in “related news” at the bottom of this piece

“Freak snowfalls in areas near Sydney”

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

NIWA are predicting an “early start to summer” according to TVNZ:-

http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/early-start-summer-predicted-5180713

Quoting:-

“The atmosphere is yet to show any response to warmer than normal sea surface temperatures”

What warmer than normal SSTs? The anomaly is -1.55 C all around NZ and I cannot believe the cold air coming off the sea at MtM at the moment even though there’s sunny skies:-

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

The TVNZ article goes on:-

“Last year, NIWA forecast there would be a an early start to summer with a La Nina weather pattern, however most of the country was drenched with rain in early December.

In March this year NIWA confirmed New Zealand had been short changed on summer , with records showing cloudiness, cool temperatures and above average rainfall plagued the period between December and February.

Do you believe NIWA’s predictions? Have a say on our Facebook page . ”

# # #

I don’t believe NIWA’s current prognosis let alone predictions.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

‘Anatomy of dissent’

by Judith Curry

Two particular subgroups of ACC-questioning mainstream scientists that emerged from my research among atmospheric scientists were two kinds of research meteorologists: the (by definition physics-strong and theoretical) dynamicists and more empirical research meteorologists with past training in synoptic methods and weather prediction. – Myanna Lahsen

An interesting paper was sent to me by Douglas Sheil, which provides some insights into skepticism in the meteorological research community.

Anatomy of Dissent: A Cultural Analysis of Climate Skepticism

Myanna Lahsen

>>>>>>

http://judithcurry.com/2013/06/19/anatomy-of-dissent/#more-11843

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Cricket Ground Weather (and horse racing etc), Detailed Forecast Charts

Grass and sub soil temperature, precipitation, cloud, wind and evapotranspiration

http://www.myweather2.com/Cricket/New-Zealand.aspx

Temperature: Forecast Thursday 20th June to Tuesday 25th June

The charts below show detailed temperature information with values at 20 minute intervals. This data is of particular interest to the sport of horse racing. The green line with dashes indicates the expected un-shaded grass surface temperature. The blue line indicates the expected air temperature in a shaded well ventilated spot. The purple line indicates the expected temperature of the race track sub soil at a depth of 10cm. The red line indicates the expected dew point temperature in a shaded and well ventilated spot. Where the blue air temperature line on the chart meets or crosses the dew temperature line you can expect to see an increasing chance and amount of dew forming on the track.

Carisbrook, Dunedin

http://www.myweather2.com/activity/xsection-frame.aspx?type=temp&xid=499&tu=c&wsu=kmph&pu=mm&locid=17384

Eden Park, Auckland

http://www.myweather2.com/activity/xsection-frame.aspx?type=temp&xid=501&tu=c&wsu=kmph&pu=mm&locid=17385

10 °C soil is about the threshold when plant growth activity shuts down. Eden Park’s sub soil forecast is mostly above that, Carisbrook is down around 0 – 2 °C.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Canterbury Racecourse, Melbourne Australia.

Sub soil temperature half way between Eden Park and Carisbrook at 5 °C:

http://www.myweather2.com/activity/xsection-frame.aspx?type=temp&xid=403&tu=c&wsu=kmph&pu=mm&locid=41295

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

‘Most watched’ El Nino update:

‘Doubts Surface Over 2014 El Nino’

“Furthermore, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) – a measure of the atmospheric pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin in Australia and a lead indicator of El Nino conditions – has risen over the past two weeks and has generally remained around +8 to +10. The latest approximate 30-day SOI value to 15 June is +10.3. Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Nina Pacific Ocean cooling event rather than a warming event.”

http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/doubts-surface-over-2014-el-nino-development-as-warming-stalls.html

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Mixed Signals Continue Over 2014 El Nino Development

23.06.2014

Latest data shows Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies weakening, the key 30-day SOI metric remaining positive while computer model forecasts continue to predict only modest warming into the future with no certainty that the El Nino threshold will be exceeded.

http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/mixed-signals-continue-over-2014-el-nino-development.html

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

‘Peru says El Nino threat over, waters cooling and fish returning’

Reuters, July 4, 2014 7:23 PM

LIMA (Reuters) – The worst of the potentially disastrous weather pattern El Nino is now behind Peru and cooling sea temperatures are luring back schools of anchovy, the key ingredient in fishmeal, authorities said on Friday.

Temperatures in Peru’s Pacific peaked in June, rising 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 Fahrenheit) above average levels, but have since retreated and will likely return to normal by August, the state committee that studies El Nino said.

“The possibility of us seeing an extraordinary Nino is ruled out,” said German Vasquez, the head of the committee.

Peru is the world’s top fishmeal exporter, producing about a third of worldwide supply. The industry is concentrated along the South American country’s northern and central coast.

Cold-water anchovy that swam south to escape warmer sea temperatures that arrived in April are making their way back now, Vasquez said.

“Anchovy are coming north,” Vasquez said. “There are already fish in the center of the country, but they’re still very close to the coast and not yet at their usual depth.”

More>>>>>

http://news.yahoo.com/peru-says-el-nino-threat-over-waters-cooling-232314417.html

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

‘El Nino forecasts flop as puzzled scientists hunt for answers’

Brian K. Sullivan, February 6, 2015

When it comes to El Nino, 2014-15 may be the years that launched a thousand academic papers.

Since last March, forecasters have said an El Nino was on the way. The only trouble is, it hasn’t arrived. Call it the period of the phantom El Nino, a shimmering siren of weather patterns yet to come that has been seen fluttering in the sparkling waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

While every El Nino sparks research, this one — or the lack thereof — is certain to prompt even more. Part of the reason is that while some global weather patterns reacted as though an El Nino was taking place, the main characteristics of the phenomenon never materialized. If there’s anything scientists hate, it’s not understanding why something happened.

“One thing that stands out on this ENSO is how wrong the models were in predicting a major event in 2014,” said Matt Rogers, president of Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland.

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/el-nino-forecasts-flop-as-puzzled-scientists-hunt-for-answers-20150205-137hoj.html

NIWA’s 50/50 forecast was bang on.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

New Zealand Climate Summary: 2015

Page 8:

“The nation-wide average temperature for 2015 was 12.7°C (0.1°C above the 1981–2010 annual average), using NIWA’s seven-station temperature series which begins in 1909. 2015 was the 27th-warmest year since 1909, based on this seven-station series.”

http://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/1601/2015_Annual_Climate_Summary_Final.pdf

# # #

“27th-warmest year since 1909” didn’t make headlines. All they got was:

‘El Nino prompts lower rainfall across New Zealand’
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/el-nino-prompts-lower-rainfall-across-new-zealand

“27th-warmest year since 1909” is relegated to the last sentence. NIWA don’t update their downloadable 7SS data but here’s the additions:

2010 13.10
2011 12.80
2012 12.50
2013 13.40
2014 12.80
2015 12.70

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

‘A Warming Arctic Would Not Cause Increased Severe Weather or Temperature Extremes’ by Chuck Wiese, Meteorologist, Weatherwise, Inc. This paper is a critique Francis and Vavrus (2012), hereinafter FV (2012), by atmospheric scientists Jennifer Francis from Rutgers University and Steve Vavrus of the University of Wisconsin. […] CONCLUSIONS FV (2012) cited in the introduction of this article is fatally flawed, incorrect and should be withdrawn by the authors. As shown here, there is no theoretical basis in which to ground FV (2012). Using the proper Rossby wave physics as illustrated here, these atmospheric waves (or commonly called planetary atmospheric waves that generate low and high pressure systems that create our weather, severe and otherwise) behave in the opposite fashion as claimed in FV (2012). A warming Arctic that is supposed to be weakening the westerly wind belt across the northern hemisphere would create an entirely different effect on the earth’s weather as FV (2012) claims. If FV (2012) claims were true, the physics governing these waves would require them to flatten in amplitude and migrate to a higher latitude, causing a much weakened effect on the Northern Hemisphere’s weather patterns. If FV (2012)… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

RT >”Why only now does a scientist who knows the physics explain it to us” It took a qualified meteorologist who probably had a guts full of the back-to-front stuff from Francis and Vavrus who operate in the same discipline. Well done Chuck Wiese. Climate scientists are not meteorologists as a matter of course. Wratt and Renwick are close with PhDs in atmospheric physics and sciences respectively but they are not degreed meteorologists as I understand. Jennifer Francis does have a B.S. in Meteorology. From Wiki: Meteorology is the interdisciplinary scientific study of the atmosphere. The study of meteorology dates back millennia, though significant progress in meteorology did not occur until the 18th century. The 19th century saw modest progress in the field after weather observation networks were formed across broad regions. Prior attempts at prediction of weather depended on historical data. It wasn’t until after the elucidation of the laws of physics and, more particularly, the development of the computer, allowing for the automated solution of the great many equations that model the weather, in the latter half of the 20th century that significant breakthroughs in weather forecasting were achieved. Meteorological phenomena… Read more »