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This thread is for discussion of New Zealand aspects of global warming.

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Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

A similar case to the Denniston challenge has just been dismissed in the US but note the difference to NZ’s RMA considerations:- ************************************************************************************************************** Judge dismisses lawsuit over Wyoming coal leases A federal judge has dismissed a legal challenge from environmental groups that sought to block federal coal leases in Wyoming’s Powder River Basin on the grounds that burning the coal would contribute to global warming. http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2018836459_apwycoalleaseslawsuit2ndldwritethru.html John Horning, executive director of WildEarth Guardians in Santa Fe, N.M., said his group is disappointed with Kollar-Kotelly’s ruling and plans to appeal. “We’re especially disappointed given that this ruling never gets to the real merits. We’ve been bounced on standing,” Horning said. “And it’s, I think, a pretty cynical view of the impacts of climate change to dismiss one’s standing because the impacts are so diffuse. We’re all affected by climate change.” Horning said his group has focused on the Powder River Basin because of the scale of mining and coal production there. Wyoming is the nation’s leading coal-producing state and most of its production comes from that area. Marion Loomis, executive director of the Wyoming Mining Association, said Thursday he’s thankful the judge dismissed the… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

This frost protection thread must invoke this AdSense banner.top of page,

Frost Protection
Portable frost fan, Tow and Blow grapes, apples, vegetables, berries
http://www.towandblow.co.nz/

Bottom of page,

Mobile Wind Turbine
Wind generator for frost prevention Protect vineyards, orchards, crops

7m high fan Mike. Doesn’t give any result anecdotes or temperature profiles that I can see though.

Doug Proctor
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Doug Proctor

Hi, Richard,

I seem to recall that NIWA left the Court with a Adverse Inference situation. Is that still happening?

Andy
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Andy

New York philanthropist and billionaire Julian Robertson has donated $5.3 million to establish a new institute in New Zealand for research on the Antarctic and Southern Ocean’s role in climate change.

The New Zealand Antarctic Research Institute was launched by Prime Minister John Key last night at Premier House.

It will operate as a public-private partnership.

The institute will be closely aligned to the crown entity Antarctic New Zealand and its chairman, Rob Fenwick, will chair the institute as well.

Mr Fenwick said he expected Government projects through the Crown research institute and universities would be strengthened by collaboration with Antarctic Research Institute projects.

“The international science community believes what happens on the Antarctic continent over the next 50 years will be critical in predicting the human impacts of climate change.”

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10828302

Andy
Guest
Andy

Bathurst win their appeal against Forest and Bid to mine coal at Denniston, without “climate change” appearing in the considerations

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/bathurst-resources-wins-climate-change-appeal-wb-126882

Andy
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Andy

Tim Groser may get job at WTO

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/7574021/Groser-mulls-tilt-at-WTO-job

Nice work mate.

Send us a postcard?

Andy
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Andy

Power Shift 2012 is coming to Auckland! Join the biggest youth climate summit New Zealand has ever seen! Power Shift will be part conference, part festival, part workshop and part celebration of the power of hundreds of young people to change the world. Are you in? Manaaki whenua, manaaki tangata, haere whakamua 7-9 Dec 2012 http://powershift.org.nz/ Key speakers include Auckland mayor the Honourable Len Brown Actress and Activist Lucy Lawless Founder of 350.org Bill McKibben (via video conference) Dunedin City Council’s youngest councillor Jinty MacTavish Young 350 Pacific organizer from Samoa Brianna Fruean Young Pacific climate change activist from the Soloman Islands Christina Ora, who famously told world leaders “you have negotiated all my life, you cant tell me you need more time” Director of Carbon Partnership and award winning (ex-) lecturer from Victoria University Sean Weaver Lawyer and activist from Te Whanau a Apanui Dayle Takitimu Energy Efficiency and Conservation Agency CEO Mike Underhill Inspiring members of the Power Shift crew Plus some “old codgers” heckling from the back, perhaps?

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Global warming to blame for Hobsonville twister?

Scientists are warning that weather events like the devastating tornado that struck Auckland yesterday may be a symptom of global warming.

http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/global-warming-blame-hobsonville-twister-5272404

I suppose it was inevitable that a link would be made however tenuous (“like”, “may”).

Andy
Guest
Andy

If they want to stick to this story then maybe we should apply for money from the US, under this new fund just agreed at Doha

COP 18 voted just minutes ago to create a “Doha Climate Gateway” and agreed to a second commitment period for the Kyoto protocol. The U.S. remains out of the protocol, now joined by Russia, Japan and Canada.

COP 18 inserted a “Loss & Damage Mechanism” into the final text which would require developed countries like the U.S. to pay poor nations for climate damages supposedly resulting from extreme weather events.

http://www.cfact.org/qatar/

Andy
Guest
Andy

Peter Whitmore: Immediate action needed to reduce carbon emissions
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/environment/news/article.cfm?c_id=39&objectid=10860337

Getting our emissions down to 1990 levels is only the first small step in what we need to achieve. Internationally targets as high as an 80 per cent reduction on 1990 emissions by 2050 have been put forward. Our Government has already raised the possibility of agreeing to targets of 10 to 20 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020 (subject to a raft of conditions) and of 50 per cent below by 2050.

[..]

Meanwhile, former United Nations climate chief Yvo de Boer recently said he believes the European Union needs to quickly boost its carbon price to about €150 ($240) a tonne if it is to meet its objective of reducing emissions to 80 per cent below 1990 levels by 2050. Compared to this, present New Zealand pricing seems to be in make-believe land.

The only thing in make-believe land is this article. A carbon price of $240 and emissions NZ reduced by 10 to 20 percent of 1990 levels within the next 7 years.

What is this guy smoking? According to his bio, he has a background in engineering and economics.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

$1.6m for international climate science initiative

The Ministry for Primary Industries has announced the funding and says the money will go towards agricultural greenhouse gas research.

New Zealand’s scientists have until 27 March to submit research ideas. However, in order for their projects to be funded they will need to be collaborating with scientists from at least two other nations.

The ministry says the inter-governmental initiative is all about breaking down the barriers of climate science by getting scientists from different countries working together.

It says the challenge of growing more food, and developing more climate-resilient food systems, without growing greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture requires a global strategic approach.

Twenty-one European countries, as well as New Zealand, Canada and the United States, are members of the joint science initiative.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/rural/127461/$1-point-6m-for-international-climate-science-initiative

Andy
Guest
Andy

Russel Norman overjoyed at Solid Energy failure

Green Party co-leader Dr Russel Norman said today that Solid Energy’s troubles were “the best possible result under the circumstances.”

“As a Green Party, we’ve been trying to put an end to mining, and especially coal mining for as long as we’ve been in existence.”

“Coal is one of the most polluting energy sources in use, so to have it become uneconomical to extract is really a gift for not just the Greens, but all the peoples and tamariki of Aotearoa”.

Asked about the loss of jobs on the West Coast, Dr. Norman said: ”There is no job crisis on the West Coast. Only an Imagination Crisis. They are sitting on some of the most unspoiled parts of the country, and it is time they start thinking sustainable eco tourism, organic farming and revitalising the Arts such as sculpture, painting and poetry.”

Dr. Norman said he’d like to congratulate the Government for a job well done, and challenged John Key to continue economic policies that would result in other planet destroying industries, such as dairy farming, to fail also.

http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2013/02/russell-norman-overjoyed-at-solid-energy-failure/

The comments are a laugh

Andy
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Andy

Note that this is a spoof article, but it is so close to the truth it hurts

Mike Jowsey
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Mike Jowsey

Thanks Andy! Cheered me up reading those comments. And this one is just as good, about the supreme court dismissing the Maori case against state asset sales.
http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2013/02/he-shoots-he-scores-oh-no-he-didnt/

Andy
Guest
Andy

Mike – funny seeing Martyn “Bomber” Bradbury play a cameo role in that Twitter exchange

I don’t know if you ever watched “Citizen A” on Stratos, but it was a class act with Bomber introducing WhaleOil as a “Far Right Storm Blogger”, and then Cam cozied up to all the lefties on the panel and completely ignored Bomber. It was priceless TV

This is a classic spoof too.

“Martyn Bradbury Realty”.
“Consistently in the top 100% of agents”

http://martynbradburyrealty.com/Welcome.html

Andy
Guest
Andy

Climate change in coal consents?

The Supreme Court is being asked to determine whether climate change should be considered when coal mining companies apply for resource consent. It comes after both the Environment Court and the High Court ruled that climate change isn’t part of coal mining consents.
Everyone involved in the argument accepts coal is a pollutant that contributes to climate change. What’s in dispute is whether Parliament intended climate change to be ignored when it comes to coal mining under the Resource Management Act.
“It is bizarre if New Zealand’s foremost environmental statute cannot consider the most serious environmental threat to humanity and to the planet,” says West Coast Environment Network member Jeanette Fitzsimons.

Read more: http://www.3news.co.nz/Climate-change-in-coal-consents/tabid/1160/articleID/290003/Default.aspx#ixzz2NJPbXSkt

Andy
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Andy

English leading debate on Climate Change http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/english-leading-debate-climate-change-weekend-review-lg-137202 Matthew Hooton (This will get the warmistas choking on their organic muesli ) Alarmist prophecies Mr English’s comments were in the context of climate change. Regular readers will know I am one who doubts the more alarmist prophecies. In my view, climate change has a touch of the Salem witch trials. Whatever happens is presented as evidence for the hypothesis. Moreover, it is too easy to see how the issue could suffer from inflation. If Professor A has a model suggesting sea-level rises of, say, 2 metres, Professor B with a model suggesting only 1.8 metres is not going to get any media attention. It’s Professor C with a new 2.2 metre forecast who will get the attention of the university’s PR department and wind up being interviewed on some deeply earnest programme on PBS, MSNBC or Radio NZ. Nevertheless, I accept I am in the minority. A majority of those who style themselves as climate scientists believe the world is warming – except for where climate change is making it colder – and the seas are rising. A majority of governments formally agree – unsurprisingly… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Poor Simon there at #9, doing his whack-the-standstill best.

Andy
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Andy

James Renwick on Q&A ———— http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/lack-govt-leadership-climate-change-renwick-ck-137337 Lack of govt leadership on climate change – Renwick One of the country’s leading climate scientists, Dr James Renwick, has criticised the government for a lack of leadership on adaptation around climate change. Dr Renwick told TVNZ’s Q+A programme that farmers need prepare for a drier climate in future, adding: “I think the government does have policy around adaptation, but I think, yeah, there could be more political leadership on this issue.” He also said that New Zealand needed to opt f or more sustainability, lower intensity and lower stocking rates in order to cope with the change in weather patterns. “The present intensification of farming and dairying, in particular, doesn’t look very sustainable, given the way the climate’s likely to change.” Dr Renwick told the programme that global warming was the only explanation for the drought, saying the average around which temperatures vary is changing and will be hotter over time. “So what we call a very warm year now will be a cold year in 50 or 60 years’ time. What we’d call a dry summer now will be getting closer to the normal summer… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Uses “yeah” a lot – like a yobbo in the pub. or a stoned hippie.

I wonder what “the only explanation” for the rain is?

Andy
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Andy

Stoned hippy? That would explain the shirt

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Your future weather: A daunting forecast

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10871842

Dr James Renwick

“The AR5 is hugely significant for New Zealanders, and for all nations – it is the one best resource for our present understanding of climate change.”

He described climate change as the biggest issue facing humanity, with political and social responses urgently required.

Professor David Frame

Professor Frame saw the international post-2020 climate change regime as being “absolutely fundamental” to tackling the problem.

“Climate policy has to mature, and fast. Climate change is a long-term issue, so we should plan for a sustained, global response over several decades.”

“Given that climate policies are only effective if they can command electoral support, I think it’s important that climate initiatives become a mainstream part of other policies, rather than as radical social experiments.”

Dr Simon Lamb

“Temperature records show that this is one of the fastest warming places on the planet, but these results have been contested by some climate sceptics.

“Yet, you only have to talk to the local inhabits – for example, the Sami people of northern Norway – to realise that they know it is warming rapidly from their own observations.”

# # #

All oblivious to any other scenario.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

The shirt does rule out pub yobbo and delinquent teenager. Not really hippie either. Maybe we’re talking 70s retro guy (favs: music Hot August Night, film Heat).

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Gareth Renowden displaying total iincomprehension of the actual processes of planetary enthalpy and thermal inertia:- From: “The Other Side Of The Story” – [They got that right at least] “The bad news is that there’s a lag built in to the system. It will take around 30 years to see temperatures stabilise, because the oceans have to catch up with the warming effect of all the extra greenhouse gases. In other words, continued warming cannot be avoided.” http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2013/03/20/bursting-bill-and-stevens-bubble/ Yes there’s a lag built in to the system but not the one Gareth thinks, he’s about 40 to 50 years too late. Temperatures have already stabilised over the 21st century, contrary to Gareth’s other-worldly perspective, because they lagged late 1980s solar change by 8 – 20 yrs via the solar => ocean heat sink => atmosphere/space process, So paraphrasing for the real world:- “The [good (but not really)] news is that there’s a lag built in to the system. It [took] around [14] years to see temperatures stabilise, because the oceans have to catch up with the warming effect of [Grand Maximum solar levels]. In other words, continued warming cannot [now continue].” These guys… Read more »

Andy
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Andy

I’m guessing that me responding in comments there won’t be welcomed.
Don’t know why; it’s just a hunch I have

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

I’ve submitted a comment:-

richardcfromnz says:
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
March 20, 2013 at 10:56 am

Paraphrasing for the real world:-

“The [good] news is that there’s a lag built in to the system. It [took] around [14] years to see temperatures stabilise, because the oceans have to catch up with the warming effect of [Grand Maximum solar levels]. In other words, continued warming cannot [now continue].”

http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2013/03/20/bursting-bill-and-stevens-bubble/#comment-4473

Andy
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Andy

Good luck with that. The one comment so far has this nugget

We are headed into completely unknown territory as far as climate goes. But a pragmatic assessment puts the Earth at largely uninhabitable some time between 2040 and 2080.

Cheerful lot aren’t they?

EDIT – I see your comment is through. Bring on the trolls.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Gluckman appears to letting climate change slip quietly into oblivion. It’s at the bottom of the list of “issues” and not one of his blog posts back to October 20, 2011 addresses “the greatest moral issue of our time” from what I can see.

There’s been no update to the ‘Climate change’ page since Thursday, 13 August 2009.

http://www.pmcsa.org.nz/climate-change/

Andy
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Andy

Meanwhile the UK has appointed yet another Chief Scientist who has no background in climate change or Earth Sciences whatsoever

http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=83766

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Just to highlight mind-numbed denial of the existence of certain natural phenomena by the Hot Topic eco-fascist faithful (e.g. bill in particular):- ‘Plan to drill into marine volcano’ It reads like something out of science fiction: an active underwater volcano, a team of international experts – and a giant drill. To scientists, the Brothers Volcano represents the world’s best opportunity to understand how magmatic hydrothermal systems work within submarine volcanos. The volcano, 400km northeast of White Island, is perhaps the best mapped and understood submarine volcano known to science. Three kilometres wide and with a highest peak 1.2km below sea level, Brothers is the most hydrothermally active of all the volcanoes along the Kermadec Arc – itself arguably the most active chain of submarine volcanoes in the world. It continually throws up dark, metal-rich plumes of dissolved minerals which, when hitting cold seawater, precipitate out and gather on the sea floor. As this reaction occurs it can also build “chimneys” rich in metals above the vents. One of two vent fields that sharply contrast in their chemistry is responsible for large mineral deposits of copper and gold. By drilling into the volcano, scientists… Read more »

Richard Treadgold
Guest

‘Plan to drill into marine volcano’

This is a quote, but what is the reference, please? Ah, I see, the reference comes last. Then, your comments follow “# # #”. Confusing.

Andy
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Andy

Some great events coming your way for the climate enthusiasts:

NZ Climate Change Conference, June 4-5 Palmerston North

http://www.nzcccconference.org/

Kindly sponsored by the NZ taxpayer (hey, thanks for the money guys!)
http://www.nzcccconference.org/sponsors

Plus (wait there’s more!) a one day workshop organised by the Orthodox Church of Modern Day Warmists

http://www.greens.org.nz/events/climate-change-conference

I have my registration already, for the latter, see here:

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/48940782/climateReg.pdf

Andy
Guest
Andy
Andy
Guest
Andy

Rodney Hide in the NBR

“Faith, not facts, drive global warming”

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/faith-not-facts-drive-global-warming-dc-139899

Has a good dig at Renwick

Andy
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Andy

MRP windfarm consent finally granted

Mighty River Power today announced its been granted a final resource consent to build a wind farm near Dannevirke, but said it won’t start building for at least three years.

The 310 megawatt farm, which consists of 53 turbines in the Puketoi Range, originally got consent last year, but remained subject to appeal. All three appellant submissions have since been withdrawn.

In conjunction with the Turitea site near Palmerston North, it gives Mighty River Power the option for up to 490Mw of wind capacity.

However, in its update to the market, the recently listed firm said it was unlikely to start any new generation projects in the next three to five years, mostly due to an over-construction of gas, wind and geothermal power stations over the past decade.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8753038/MRP-windfarm-consent-finally-granted

Andy
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Andy

The NZ Green Party one day conference on climate change that occurred today will be streamed here for those interested

http://new.livestream.com/nzgreens/events/2154111

Andy
Guest
Andy
Andy
Guest
Andy

Particularly this bit

It points to Britain’s target of a 34 percent cut by 2020 and 80 percent by 2050. Rather than the current signalled target of a 50 percent cut from 1990 levels by 2050, New Zealand should target a 90 percent cut, the paper says.

Andy
Guest
Andy

“Scientist warns of more extreme flood events”

Climate change could be putting the planet on a path to an era not seen for 3 million years, a New Zealand scientist has warned.

Professor Tim Naish, director of Victoria University’s Antarctic Research Centre, said sea levels in 2100 could be alarmingly higher than today if carbon emissions continue at their present rate.

Today, atmospheric CO2 has just reached 400 parts per million due to human emission, and the last time the planet experienced such levels was 3 million to 5 million years ago, during the Pliocene era, when the climate was 3°C warmer.

At this point in time, both the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and parts of the East Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets had melted and sea levels were at least 10m higher.

“Some are arguing that we are already committing our atmosphere and our climate to a time that we haven’t seen for three million years, which saw the loss of those ice sheets,” said Professor Naish, speaking in Hobart at the first joint conference between Antarctica New Zealand and the Australian Antarctic Division.

[..continues]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10892922

Mike Jowsey
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Mike Jowsey

OMG! It could be, with a 95% certitude, that the Planet, according to our trillion-dollar computer models, has reached an academic tipping point, and IT’S WORSE THAN WE THOUGHT.

(btw, send more money NOW)

Mike Jowsey
Guest
Mike Jowsey
Andy
Guest
Andy

A state-owned electricity company on Thursday received the go-ahead to build what could be New Zealand’s largest wind farm just north of the capital, Wellington. A statement from Genesis Energy said it had no immediate plans to start construction after the country’s Environment Court confirmed resource consents for 286 turbines with a potential total generating capacity of 860 megawatts. Genesis Energy chief executive Albert Brantley said in the statement that sustainable energy options of the scale of the proposed Castle Hill Wind Farm were “essential for the future of New Zealand’s energy generation.” “These consents are about being prepared for the future. They will provide Genesis Energy the ability to respond to the changing needs of New Zealanders, our customers, when we need to,” Brantley said. Energy and Resources Minister Simon Bridges welcomed the Environment Court decision, saying the wind farm could power around 370,000 homes. “This is a major boost to our continued confidence in renewables. It shows that companies are clearly willing to invest in progressing cost-effective options to meet New Zealand’s future electricity needs,” Bridges said in a statement. Genesis Energy had entered the project without any form of subsidy… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”Genesis Energy had entered the project without any form of subsidy support from the government, he [Simon Bridges] said”

Weasel words.

Andy
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Andy

Presumably the viability of this project will be determined by its new shareholders.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Yes, but its relative viability relies on the carbon tax (ETS) levied by Bridges’ and preceding govts on some of its competitors. Not as viable, and maybe not viable at all, without it.

Still, worse in Australia:

“Carbon is now our single largest cost” – Russell Skelton, managing director of Macquarie Generation.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/carbon-economy/carbon-breakthrough-claimed-at-coalfired-power-plant-20130702-2p9sp.html

Andy
Guest
Andy

$10m freeze on global warming

The Government has proposed cutting $10 million in funding for climate change research in a move described as disheartening for New Zealand’s highly capable climate scientists.

Treasury documents showed that Primary Industries Minister Nathan Guy has recommended scaling back funding for Climate Change Research Grants by $2 million in the next financial year, $3.75 million in 2014/15 and $4.25 million in 2015/16.

This would reduce the pool of funding from nearly $10 million a year to $4.5 million a year by 2016.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10895428

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

‘Hamilton engineer helps design frost stopper’

GERALD PIDDOCK

A new machine developed in part by a Hamilton engineer could solve a multimillion-dollar problem for New Zealand’s horticulture and viticulture industry.

Called the Heat Ranger, it pushes warm air onto crops to prevent frost damage.

Hamilton engineer Fred Phillips helped design the machine after the concept was developed by Canterbury farmer Bruce Koller.

The blackcurrant grower had suffered three seasons of crippling, out-of-season frosts and was desperate for a solution.

>>>>>>>

http://www.stuff.co.nz/waikato-times/business/8980495/Hamilton-engineer-helps-design-frost-stopper

“He was unsure what the Heat Ranger would retail for, but it would be at least six figures.”

Mike Jowsey
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Mike Jowsey

With cooler climate predictions becoming more frequent, and with the late frosts last year (7-Nov), this sort of machinery is much needed. Would be ideal for my cherries, but alas, six figures counts me out. Unless I get that cheque from big oil…..

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”Would be ideal for my cherries”

At a wind speed of 150kmh, 120m range, and discharge height about 4m (going by photo), I got the impression that the unit would be used across (over) several rows at a time in both directions for blueberries say. But I didn’t think that setup would be ideal for cherries, aren’t they about that height? If so the unit would just be blasting the nearest trees rather than flowing past.

Wouldn’t the discharge height need to be near ground level for the air to be pushed through (under) several cherry tree rows (imagine the unit upside down for that)?

I’m ignoring cost of course.

Mike Jowsey
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Mike Jowsey

You might be right. Tree canopy is 5 metres. Would like to see it in action.

(Gotta love that LPG releasing its CO2 and causing global warming all at once!)

Magoo
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Magoo
Andy
Guest
Andy

That will require a detailed read over the next few days

It’s not all bad though.
e.g Page 14

Increased yield from rising CO2 fertilisation is likely
to benefit the forestry industry by 2040 and beyond,
by increasing growth rates of radiata pine.

Gosh, that old “denier canard” CO2 = plant food getting trotted out again

Andy
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Andy

The summary suggests we need “further research”, several times, in fact

Sort of a sales pitch, I would say

Magoo
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Magoo

The part on climate sensitivity seems very suspect – ‘The weight of the evidence, however, continues to support the range of estimates provided by the IPCC in its first to fourth assessments. Recent estimates do not significantly affect conclusions on the likely future trajectory for the planet and the likely broad time scale of expected changes, given the magnitude of the challenge of emissions reduction.’

Andy
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Andy

This deserves a thorough fisking.

I think Bishop Hill have run a number of posts on this topic recently. Recent estimates of climate sensitivity are lower than the IPCC ones. Recent studies use empirical data to estimate TCS at around 1.3 degrees C and ECS at or below 2 degrees C.

However, the “bigger picture” is that we have models and paleoclimatic studies.

The latter have a lot of uncertainty, and are thus poorly constrained. The former are, well, models

Andy
Guest
Andy

The section on Climate Sensitivity is just waffle.
This is the central question to the whole issue, and they wave it away and refer to “discussions in the lay press”

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Cheers Magoo. >[Foreword, page 1] “It will be necessary for New Zealand to address a number of challenges that have both a scientific and value component. These include:…………• What are the costs and benefits of adaptation or mitigation compared with other priorities?” The “other” Andy asked about this wrt a NZ equivalent of Monckton’s cost/benefit in that thread. Gluckman has neglected to point out that cost/benefit analysis is not just adaption/mitigation compared to other priorities but that it should also be compared to do-nothing-until-needed which Monckton calculates as around 50x less expensive than adaption/mitigation. 21st century models vs observations failure doesn’t get a mention on page 7, “reasonable agreement” apparently: >”The best available comparisons between climate models suggest that models respond to the historical combination of natural and anthropogenic forcings in reasonable agreement with observations….” I wonder if Gluckman knows this evidence (model obs/hotspot failure) is being contested in the US Supreme Court (SLF EPA Endangerment Finding petition)? “Pause/hiatus” on page 5: >”The reported recent ‘hiatus’ in the rate of rise of temperature does not signal that climate change has ‘stopped’ or is no longer a concern.” But the fact is that atmospheric… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

The section on Climate Sensitivity is pathetic.

CS feeds into the economic models (IAMs) as an input parameter so it is hugely influential (let alone purely climatic projections and the contention arising). Thorough fisking certainly reqd.

>”The weight of the evidence, however, continues to support the range of estimates provided by the IPCC in its first to fourth assessments”.

I think that should read “the weight of opinion of our climate scientist advisers” because the evidence offers no such support that I can see.

Andy
Guest
Andy

“”The weight of the evidence, however, continues to support the range of estimates provided by the IPCC in its first to fourth assessments”

What they seem to imply is that measurements of climate sensitivity, the central part of the whole climate change issue, hasn’t progressed since the FAR was published in 1990.

So in 23 years of research, millions of dollars of funding, we have no more to say about this topic than a paragraph of weasel words.

Oh really!

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”CS feeds into the economic models (IAMs) as an input parameter so it is hugely influential” This is a major issue in the US in respect to the Social Costs of Carbon (SCC) e.g (my bolding). ‘A Closer Look at the Government’s Determination of the Social Costs of Carbon’ By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger […] Recently, the Interagency Working Group reconvened and made good on its promise to update their 2010 findings. In doing so, they increased their estimate of the SCC by about 40 percent. Increased!? How on earth, you may wonder, could they have increased their SCC estimates since 2010 when paper after scientific paper shows that the equilibrium climate sensitivity—that is, how much global warming will result from a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration—is much lower than most pre-2010 determinations? The Interagency Working Group even recognizes that the climate sensitivity “is a key input parameter” to their SCC models. Simple: The updated SCC calculations are made without “revisit[ing] other assumptions with regard to the discount rate, reference case socioeconomic and emission scenarios, or equilibrium climate sensitivity” [emphasis added]. How convenient is that? The updated… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Richard C2 August 4, 2013 at 1:39 pm

Your comment is awaiting moderation.

0.9 C by 2040?

That requires 0.33 C/decade starting right now for 13.4 C in 27 yrs time. Given ENSO-neutral NZ temperature has been stuck on the 2012 12.5 C level for about the last 50 yrs that appears highly improbable.

Maybe the PMs Chief Scientific Adviser should get some better advice than what he was given.

http://hot-topic.co.nz/new-zealands-changing-climate-and-oceans-new-gluckman-report-out-today/#comment-38455

Andy
Guest
Andy

Macros response to your comment is pretty gobsmacking. Is he serious?

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Might reveal something of his mindset but I certainly didn’t see that coming. My response:

“Macro, see Table 1: Summary of projected changes (increases are relative to the 1980-2000 average)

1980-2000 average is 12.56 C plus 0.9 is 13.46. 2001-2012 average is 12.68 but we are starting from ENSO-neutral 2012 at 12.5 so that’s 0.96 by 2040 starting this year. Actually 0.35 C/decade.

I take it by your “0.033 degrees per decade” that you also find 0.35 C/decade highly improbable?”

Mike Jowsey
Guest
Mike Jowsey

There was a piece on TV One news last night about rising sea levels threatening low-lying Pacific nations. John Key is at a summit in the Marshal Islands and has pledged $5m taxpayer dollars to building – wait for it – water storage systems as protection against drought. Water water everywhere, but not a drop to drink!

Anyhow, the reporter ended the piece with the exciting news that a major declaration would be made tomorrow regarding climate change which would really bring the issue to the fore worldwide. Let’s hope the declaration would be something like “Global Warming not happening – crisis over”. Somehow, I doubt it – too many jobs on the line.

Mike Jowsey
Guest
Mike Jowsey

Here’s the link to the news program – http://tvnz.co.nz/one-news/s2013-epwednesday-video-5571729

Article starts at 15:32. Barbara Dreaver gets pretty intense, with no data to back up her claims of more intense cyclones etc. However, it is noteworthy that her prediction of An Important Declaration at the article’s end has been cropped out. Hmmm? Intrigue!

Andy
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Andy

Dreaver makes this claim:

“Scientists say that global warming is causing weather patterns in the area to become more intense, leading to devastating cyclones and tsunamis”

tsunamis??

Mike Jowsey
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Mike Jowsey

Ha! I missed that. Lmao. What an airhead.

Mike Jowsey
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Mike Jowsey

WUWT mentions the TVNZ article, noting the claim regarding An Important Declaration (which has been cropped from TVNZ-on-demand).
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/04/wuwt-hot-sheet-for-wednesday-august-4th-2013/

Andy
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Andy

An Important Declaration

It might be a vote of thanks for the generous sponsorship of Fijian Airways for the conference, with a nod to the matching “gay blue shirts” that John Key and the other delegates are all wearing?

Andy
Guest
Andy

On this topic, the hand-wringers are out in force at TDB
http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2013/09/04/letting-the-pacific-drown/

Mike Jowsey
Guest
Mike Jowsey

Oh it’s our neighbourhood alarmist, Gareth, with the usual emotional tripe. E.G. “…. certain to lumber them with a climate denier as prime minister, it falls to John Key to act on our neighbour’s life and death struggle.” yawn…. It’s worse than we thought. I left him a wee missive.

Andy
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Andy

and I see you have been duly chastised Mike, for your tasteless and demeaning comments about those poor people in the Pacific that will drown as a result of our evil consumer lifestyles that we refuse to change.
(Sent from my iPad)

Mike Jowsey
Guest
Mike Jowsey

Gareth accused you Andy of straying off-topic. LOL. I responded to his obvious double-standard: http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2013/09/04/letting-the-pacific-drown/#comment-88162

Andy
Guest
Andy

Good to see someone is sticking up for me.
I was responding to this statement, as you noticed.

A move by Contact Energy to back out of a windfarm on the Waikato’s west coast has blown away hundreds of potential jobs in a move described as another disappointment to a region buffeted by lay-offs.

Some of my “misinfomation” comes from sources such as these

“In view of flat electricity demand, current overcapacity in electricity generation in New Zealand and regulatory uncertainty in the New Zealand electricity market, developing the Hauauru ma raki wind farm has become uneconomic in the medium term.”

http://www.stuff.co.nz/waikato-times/news/9085501/Waikato-wind-farm-still-on-cards

In other words, if an incoming Labour/Green government ramps up the ETS and power prices go through the roof, wind energy may become economic in NZ, although it won’t add any value as it doesn’t add any capacity to the grid; it merely displaces other energy when the wind blows.

Andy
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Andy

Go for the wine offer Mike!

Andy
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Andy

It’s a done deal, we have signed, as Ms Drivel writes

” New Zealand has signed a declaration on climate change along with other Pacific leaders in a bid to gain access to international funding.”

http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/nz-signs-pacific-climate-change-declaration-5573898

Andy
Guest
Andy

Prime Minister John Key has welcomed the climate change focus of the Pacific Islands Forum, and restated New Zealand’s commitment to working with its Pacific neighbours to help them build more climate-resilient, sustainable economies. “Climate change is a concern for Pacific countries and New Zealand is firmly committed to helping its closest neighbours adapt to and mitigate its impacts,” Mr Key says. “Our total climate-related support will be more than $80 million over the next three years, including the $65 million for renewable energy initiatives, as announced at the Pacific Energy Summit in March. “On top of that, our support will focus on areas like developing water infrastructure, and investing in clean and efficient energy generation. This will have positive environmental impacts, but it will also help Pacific countries develop more robust economies by reducing their reliance on expensive imported diesel. “Over the past three years, we have invested $48 million in our region to address climate change through practical initiatives to help communities and infrastructure be better prepared for extreme weather-related events,” Mr Key says. “We’ve built cyclone shelters in the Northern Cooks, supported rainwater harvesting in Kiribati, Tokelau and Tuvalu, and… Read more »

Andy
Guest
Andy

Another step towards a healthier climate

Doctors are praising the Biodiversity Defence Society’s legal steps yesterday to stop another new coal mine. The Biodiversity Defence Society filed declaration proceedings with the Environment Court on Wednesday, arguing that Solid Energy no longer holds resource consents for its Cypress Mine. The resource consents for the mine – gained in 2005 – were due to expire at the end of 2012 if mining activity had not begun. Seven years later only a road has been built.

Dr Russell Tregonning from OraTaiao: The New Zealand Climate and Health Council, says, ‘For the sake of our health, we need to overcome our addiction to fossil fuels, and that includes not opening new coal mines. Every tonne of carbon dioxide we put into the atmosphere makes our future that much harder to manage.’

http://www.nzdoctor.co.nz/un-doctored/2013/june-2013/13/another-step-towards-a-healthier-climate.aspx

More straightjackets please nurse

Mike Jowsey
Guest
Mike Jowsey

SPECIAL NOTICE Climate Realists- special notice, special opportunity to make your views known. Greetings Climate Realists, Thanks to the Psychology Department at Victoria University, we all have the opportunity to make our views on climate change known by participating in a survey being run by the Centre for Applied Cross-Cultural research. Here is the link to the survey: http://tinyurl.com/cfcccnwz Taciano L. Milfont, Ph.D. is the contact person – if you have any questions, his email address is: taciano.milfont@vuw.ac.nz I think this is a golden opportunity to let the researchers know just how many of us do NOT believe in devastating climate change- I encourage everyone to do this survey, it only takes about 10-15 minutes. DETAILS: Climate Change Survey: Dear colleagues, I would like to invite you to take part in an online survey titled “Climate Change and New Zealand Society”, which has been approved by the School of Psychology Human Ethics Committee You can participate in this study whether you believe in human-induced climate change or not. The purpose of this study is to examine people’s views about how acting on climate change could affect our society and our way of life.… Read more »

Andy
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Andy

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Stakeholder Workshop

The Royal Society of New Zealand together with the NZCCC therefore invites you to attend this free half-day Stakeholder Workshop at the Royal Society of New Zealand, 11 Turnbull St, Thorndon, Wellington on Friday 11 October, 9am – 1pm. (Registration and coffee from 8:30am.)

http://www.royalsociety.org.nz/events/intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-change-stakeholder-workshop/

Andy
Guest
Andy

Southern Alps’ ice levels show sharp decrease
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11138854


According to Dr Anderson’s research model, the ice volume loss recorded since 1977 could be attributed either to the halving of the precipitation level on the South Island’s West Coast for the period or an increase in temperature of about 1C, Dr Salinger said.

“Precipitation actually increased in the latter part of the 20th century, whereas temperatures warmed by a degree so its clearly temperature which has been doing it.”

Obviously,Jim,

Andy
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Andy

This would seem to warrant further research. Are they claiming that the Southern Alps have experienced a one degree of warming since 1977?

Do they have reliable precipitation data from the region for the 20th Century?

Mike Jowsey
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Mike Jowsey

Jim’s gotta grab headlines by whatever means he can – he’s gotta sell his book.
http://hot-topic.co.nz/salingers-warmer-world-book-tour/

By the way, Jim, is the gentle warming since the LIA caused by CO2 emissions since 1950?

Andy
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Andy

It is true that the Tasman glacier has had a fairly dramatic loss of ice in recent years. I would be interested in the precipitation data from the region. The Tasman has a relatively small accumulation zone for its length. Compare with the Fox and Franz that have the large neves that feed them, with the nor’west storms that dump massive amounts of snow over on the Coast

Mike Jowsey
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Mike Jowsey

‘Natural variance’ unless Jim can answer my question above.

Andy
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Andy

Shame that Jim S didn’t come up with a more original title, since someone has already published a book with that name

http://www.amazon.com/Living-Warmer-World-Climate-Change/dp/1616134534/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1381712917&sr=8-1&keywords=living+in+a+warmer+world

Perhaps: “We are feeling warmer, yet..” ???

Andy
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Andy

The IPCC workshop recently held in Wellington NZ have released the streaming webcast as a playback video.

It can be viewed using this link

http://www.nzclimatechangecentre.org/ipcc/nzworkshops

Andy
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Andy

The second video has the first 20 mins or so with Dave Frame talking about climate sensitivity and also the various “irreversible” scenarios that could happen, most of which now fall into the “very unlikely” basket

Richard Treadgold
Guest

Andy,

Perhaps: “We are feeling warmer, yet..” ???

Heh, heh. Sorry I missed this. I like it, but I doubt Jim will, despite its truth.

Richard.

Andy
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Andy

Dave Frame –
” I am profoundly uninterested in climate deniers. I don’t think they matter.”

http://hot-topic.co.nz/something-early-for-the-weekend-grim-forecast-for-oceans-and-the-roots-of-denial/#comment-39530

What is a “climate denier”?

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

DF is right, climate deniers don’t matter because they don’t exist – except as DF strawmen or something similar.

And DF might look at his own relevancy, that’s in danger of sinking out of sight too. The new HS banner line puts it succinctly:

If you can’t explain the ‘pause’, you can’t explain the cause…

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.nz/

Get to work DF.

Andy
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Andy

DF seems to spend a lot of time justifying himself to the inmates at HT.
Not sure why

Andy
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Andy

DF writes again

Denialists don’t matter for a specific reason – because time is increasingly showing that they are wrong. Time is showing that IPCC is broadly right about the relationship between GHG and climate. [Also, denialists tend to be of a certain age… I don’t think there are any well-qualified denialists under age 55, are there?]

I guess the longer the “pause” goes on, the more confident we get in the connection between CO2 and climate. Is that how it is supposed to work?

I’m not sure how being over 55 makes you more likely to be a “denialist” (not me anyway, quite yet)

Maybe its the years of being fed BS has made the older generation a bit more immune to this

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

“Time” against “denialists”? Wake up DF.

Andy
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Andy

Some ad homs on Vincent Gray

http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2013/10/serial-disinformer-vincent-gray.html

Anthony Watts, denialist blogger at wattsupwiththat.com has copied and pasted another disinformation article, this time by Vincent Gray from New Zealand (archived here). Vincent Gray is writing at WUWT about sea level and gets lots and lots wrong. Which is to be expected. Vincent Gray has devoted the past few years to his new career of climate science disinformer.

Anthony Watts seems to think he should be shown respect because he’s getting very old. Vincent Gray is a climate science denier going back a few years now. He founded the science-disinformation organisation “New Zealand Climate Science Coalition” back in April 2006 back when he was a sprightly 84 year old.

(my emphasis)

Andy
Guest
Andy

Coastal Chch under water with 100 years – report

Experts have delivered a dire warning that rising sea levels will put some suburban areas of coastal Christchurch under water within 100 years.

The city council is now making plans for what will be a vastly different looking Canterbury coastline, caused by warming seas, melting ice in Greenland and Antarctica, and more storm surges.

South New Brighton, South Shore, Sumner, Brooklands and even parts of Linwood will become water logged if current sea level increase predictions eventuate.

This is will lead to planned abandonment of residential areas, not too unlike what happened to the worst affected earthquake areas, which were red zoned.

The Insurance industry says that houses in those areas will over a long period of time become uninsurable.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11182950

Just as well we got a cash settlement on our coastal ChCh property then.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”….we got a cash settlement on our coastal ChCh property…”

Great, now you can move to Holland or somewhere………oh wait……not Holland.

Andy
Guest
Andy

We are moving closer to the Alpine Fault.

One way or another, we will get nailed.

Richard Treadgold
Guest

Of course, you cannot escape. General Douglas MacArthur said: “There is no security on this earth, there is only opportunity.”

Andy
Guest
Andy

Unfortunately things are not so great for the large number of people who are left, still trying to sort out insurance claims, who may end up with uninsurable homes.

The report was done by engineering consulting company Tonkin and Taylor for around $90,000 and doubles the projections from the IPCC, claiming that they are too conservative.

Mike Jowsey
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Mike Jowsey

A good time to invest in cheap oceanside homes…

Andy
Guest
Andy

Some key points from the article.

Instead of sea levels rising to half a metre by 2115 as predicted by international authority Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the Tonkin & Taylor report says it will be double this.

So T&T are now the authority on sea level rise, not the IPCC.

The Tonkin & Taylor report for the city council says areas of the eastern suburbs may need to be abandoned in a “managed retreat”.

Managed retreat means a strategic decision is made by authorities to abandon or relocate properties and assets in the area.

The report warns if this cannot be done then authorities will have to undertake “forced retreat”

Vicky Buck is deputy mayor and a committed “warmist”, having started web site celcias.co.nz and has various business interests in “green” projects.

Good time to get the heck out of ChCh, I would say, before the “forced retreat” starts.

Andy
Guest
Andy

The Tonkin and Taylor report on sea level rise with respect to Christchurch is here,

http://static.stuff.co.nz/files/tonkin-taylor.pdf

In this, they make the point that current sea level rise around NZ coastlines is 1.9mm per year. They also point out that there has been no sea level rise measured in the last decade in NZ (page 9)

From here, they go on to extrapolate a possible sea level rise of up to 1 metre by 2100, although the graph on page 7 (Figure 2.1) has the linear rise of 1.9mm/y as a lower bound, and a rapidly rising sea level as the upper bound.

I am not sure why this report was commissioned by the Christchurch City Council before AR5 was released.

Based on this report, which is essentially a literature review based on modelled assumptions, people on the east side of Christchurch have no future to look forward to.

Mike Jowsey
Guest
Mike Jowsey

Came across this article referenced at Climate Depot. A Timaru Herald article in 2007 which quotes that ray of sunshine Augie Auer as saying “We’re all going to survive this. It’s all going to be a joke in five years,” he said. A combination of misinterpreted and misguided science, media hype, and political spin had created the current hysteria and it was time to put a stop to it. “It is time to attack the myth of global warming,” he said.”

RIP Augie – you are sadly missed.

Mike Jowsey
Guest
Mike Jowsey

David Kear, former Director-General of NZ Scientific Research, says global warming is a non-existent threat

The widespread obsession with Global-Warming-Climate-Change, in opposition to all factual evidence, is quite incredible. It leads to unfair treatment of some citizens, and a massive bill for all, for nothing useful. When will citizens revolt effectively against such callous disregard for their observations and wishes, by those who are essentially their elected employees? When will the perpetrators examine the basis of their ideology, and realise that it’s based on unfounded unscientific beliefs, not on confirmed, widely-available investigations by real scientists who abide by the moral standards of their profession?


http://www.climaterealists.org.nz/sites/climaterealists.org.nz/files/KearGW2.pdf

h/t Jo Nova

Mike Jowsey
Guest
Mike Jowsey

“A New Zealand scientist says deteriorating soil quality is the most important issue facing the world today.” http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/deteriorating-soil-world-s-most-critical-issue-nz-scientist-5999730

During the video he says “…with climate change there are many uncertainties, but soil we can measure”.

Mike Jowsey
Guest
Mike Jowsey

What can farmers do about climate change?

Apparently the science is settled, so now its all about mitigation. According to some rent-seeking academic at Lincoln College…. http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/opinion/10393251/What-can-farmers-do-about-climate-change

HemiMck
Guest
HemiMck

Hi Mike,

I was tempted to respond on their Blog but I think the farmers had it well covered.

But I am curious as to the extent that “The New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre and its many partners” have their nose in the trough.

Mike Jowsey
Guest
Mike Jowsey

Bit of a stoush brewing with MetService (NIWA) being accused of blocking basic weather data….
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/metservice-attacks-ww-civil-defence-comes-wws-defence-dominion-post-story

MetService made double record profits last year, which would be fine had they not also been blocking the most basic of weather data which is a public safety and general economic issue. MetService say they aren’t blocking data but this week Auckland Civil Defence came out and publicly backed WeatherWatch.co.nz in this widely supported effort to free up our nation’s most basic weather data.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”MetService (NIWA)”

Different entities Mike.

See: Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd
Annual Report 2013 http://about.metservice.com/assets/ar-2013-2/MetService-AR-2013.pdf

Section 20. page 14:
Corporate Governance Statement
Shareholders
As a State-owned enterprise (SOE), MetService is wholly-owned by the Crown. Two Shareholding Ministers act on behalf of the Crown – the Minister of Finance and the Minister for State
Owned Enterprises.

Section 41, page 24:
16. RELATED PARTY TRANSACTIONS
The ultimate controlling party of the Group is the Crown.

Relationship with the Crown
Meteorological Service of New Zealand Limited is a limited liability company incorporated in New Zealand, under the Companies Act 1993. The shares are held equally by the Minister for State Owned Enterprises and the Minister of Finance on behalf of the Crown. The Crown does not guarantee the liabilities of Meteorological Service of New Zealand Limited.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Jim Salinger at The Conversation discussed here:

http://jennifermarohasy.com/2014/10/opera-house-still-above-sea-level-despite-homogenisation/#comment-

Drought, GHGs, ozone., and natural variation (SAM).

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

‘2015 Hottest year on record – NASA, NOAA’

Posted in In the News on January 21st, 2016. [Science Media Centre]

[…]

The NASA announcement has been covered in New Zealand media. Examples include [hotlinks]:

TVNZ News: 2015 was the world’s hottest year on record – and it’s not good news for NZ

3 News: NZ should be worried about hottest year on record Greenpeace

New Zealand Herald: 2015 was hottest year in recorded history, scientists say

3 News: 2015: hottest year on record

NZ City News: Hottest year on record ‘disturbing’ for NZ

RNZ: 2015 hottest year on record – NASA

Yahoo NZ News: Last year was hottest on record globally – U.S. science agencies

http://www.sciencemediacentre.co.nz/2016/01/21/2015-hottest-year-on-record-nasa-noaa/

# # #

In the NASA GISS dataset, the 2015 SH Extratropics anomaly was cooler than 1980 (0.41 vs 0.46).