New Zealand

This thread is for discussion of New Zealand aspects of global warming.

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233 Thoughts on “New Zealand

  1. Richard C on 16/10/2010 at 4:31 pm said:

    A swelling debate — Chris has questions

    • THREAD on 25/10/2010 at 12:01 pm said:

      Sir Peter Gluckman’s report on first year

      Monday, 27 September 2010, 4:50 pm
      Press Release: Prime Ministers Science Advisory Committee

    • THREAD on 25/10/2010 at 12:08 pm said:

      Public engagement

      I have given over 30 public lectures – both in universities and CRIs but also to the private sector as well. All my significant speeches are on this website [Scoop} and many have been well reported. Most have focused on the role of research, science and technology in New Zealand – why we need to do it, how we should do it, how we should take it to scale. As the year progressed I was able to address initiatives within the sector and to give speeches on specific issues such as climate change. I have been overwhelmed with invitations from scientific societies, organisations, public and private sector groups, universities and schools to speak, join panels or participate in events – I regret being able to accept only a few.

    • THREAD on 25/10/2010 at 12:14 pm said:

      Specific activities

      I have written a report on public‐private sector interactions in science, a report on methamphetamine precursors, a paper on the current understanding of climate change, and released an interim report on adolescence. The adolescence work will take another six months to develop to the level that could inform policy analysis. That work has also served the useful purpose of exploring the boundaries between science advice and policy formation.


      Globally, there is a rapidly rising focus on the interaction between science and diplomacy. I will co‐chair with Mr John Allen, Chief Executive of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, a committee to get better coordination of strategy in our international science relationships.

      Without incurring significant cost to the Office, I have managed to meet with the UK Chief Scientist Sir John Beddington (twice), the Australian Chief Scientist Dr Penny Sackett (twice), senior officials in the USA including President Obama’s cabinet‐level advisor Dr John Holdren and the Chief Scientist of the US Department of Agriculture, Dr Richard Beachy, and with many of their associated officials and offices. I have also met with senior Chinese officials and vice‐ministers, and with senior officials in Singapore. Each of these offer specific opportunities we can build upon. I have also attended the joint science commission meetings with the USA and the European Union. I have been heavily involved with the Global Research Alliance – co‐chairing the Wellington meeting and assisting the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry on scientific aspects. I have attending coordination meetings around the Square Kilometre Array proposal and made representations as appropriate internationally.

      I have started a research project jointly with the Ministry of Research, Science and Technology and the Royal Society of New Zealand to identify what the real issues in science education may be. I expect a report by the end of the year.

      I have started a process of discussions to identify a strategy to improve the quality of science dissemination in the media.

    • Richard C (NZ) on 25/10/2010 at 12:18 pm said:

      My goodness, he has been busy.

      “I have managed to meet……..President Obama’s cabinet‐level advisor Dr John Holdren

      We should be afraid – very afraid.

  2. THREAD on 16/10/2010 at 7:35 pm said:


  3. THREAD on 22/10/2010 at 11:58 am said:

    Snow hits farmers big time 05 Oct 2010

  4. THREAD on 25/10/2010 at 11:47 am said:

    Scoop Sci-Tech

    Latest Science-Technology Headlines

    • Richard C (NZ) on 25/10/2010 at 11:30 pm said:

      From Hot Topic

      Imagining 2020 — the world will be what we make it

      by Gareth on November 16, 2009

      Hot Topic is pleased to join with Scoop and Celsias in launching a new series of articles with the theme of Imagining 2020. We want New Zealanders, as Scoop co-founder Alastair Thompson explains in this introductory post, to imagine what a low carbon future might be like:

      The idea is to provide a platform for a collective long-term forecasting effort which considers the impacts of economic transformation on each sector in the NZ economy. If we start by dreaming and imagining our futures, then perhaps we can effectively gain some control over them.

  5. THREAD on 25/10/2010 at 11:52 am said:

    Court action against NIWA: progress report

  6. THREAD on 25/10/2010 at 11:54 am said:

    La Niña intensifies; warm late spring very likely

    Thursday, 30 September 2010, 3:58 pm
    Press Release: NIWA

  7. THREAD on 25/10/2010 at 9:45 pm said:

    New Zealand Herald



  8. Richard C (NZ) on 25/10/2010 at 9:54 pm said:

    See “Consultation begins on forest carbon measurement”

    Friday, 15 October 2010, 2:18 pm
    Press Release: Ministry Of Agriculture And Forestry

  9. THREAD on 26/10/2010 at 6:44 pm said:

    The New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme

    See – ETS and carbon taxes

  10. THREAD on 01/11/2010 at 8:16 pm said:

    Te Ara – the Encyclopedia of New Zealand,

    Climate change

    by Brett Mullan and Kynan Gentry

    The climate is the result of a finely balanced system, but natural events and human activities can tip the balance. Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are expected to have a major influence on the global climate over the coming century. The face of New Zealand could change remarkably if temperatures rise by several degrees.

  11. Richard C (NZ) on 02/11/2010 at 12:12 pm said:

    Keep coal in the hole, or green efforts will remain futile

    By Jeanette Fitzsimons
    5:30 AM Tuesday Nov 2, 2010 – NZ Herald

    For 35 years I have been wrong about how to prevent climate change. It’s time I confessed.

    For 35 years I have worked to improve energy efficiency – insulating homes, efficiency standards for appliances, better light bulbs, fuel-economy standards for cars and energy-saving technologies in industry and farming.

    The assumption was that this would result in less fossil fuel being burned and less carbon dioxide going into the atmosphere. Well, it doesn’t.

    For 35 years I have promoted renewable energy – solar water heating, solar electricity, wind power, log and pellet burners, bio-gas – assuming that these would result in less fossil fuel being burned and less carbon dioxide going into the atmosphere. Well, they don’t.

    We would be stupid not to make those changes, which achieve cost savings, health benefits, warmer homes, jobs, more affordable energy, more profitable businesses and a stronger economy. But to protect the climate, we have to change tack. I’m changing tack.

    [Fitzsimons cites Hansen and “Storms of My Grandchildren”]

    Nasa climate scientist James Hansen has calculated how much more fossil fuel we could afford to use if we were to get back to 350 parts per million of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere: the level that he calculates will allow climate to stabilise.

    His recipe, set out in his book Storms of My Grandchildren, published last year, allows us to use all the conventional oil (though not tar sands, shale or oil from extreme environments like that of the Southern Ocean) but coal must be phased out completely by 2030, starting now.

    • Andy on 02/11/2010 at 2:34 pm said:

      I was speaking to a guy at the weekend who is working on the $100 billion coal project at Stockton.

      It’s going to take a bit more than a few watermelons to shut these guys down.

    • Richard C (NZ) on 02/11/2010 at 3:02 pm said:

      Must be $100 million.

      New Stockton coal processing plant as export demand turns down

      9 March 2009 – New Zealand’s largest coal exporter Solid Energy is to invest $100 million in a new coal processing plant at its Stockton opencast mine near Westport as the next step in a long-term investment programme designed to secure a further 20-year life for the mine.

      Lignite is worth $100 billion.

      “A recent report by Richard Barker estimated our metallic mineral potential to have a gross in-ground value in excess of $140 billion, with lignite alone at least an additional $100 billion.”

    • Andy on 02/11/2010 at 3:10 pm said:

      oops, fat finger problem, thanks for the correction Richard.

      Lignite is $100 billion? Wow.

    • Richard C (NZ) on 11/11/2010 at 4:22 pm said:

      Doing my best in the ongoing debate that is now just Gandalf an myself.

      My latest effort:-

      Nonentity (Mt Maunganui)
      01:14PM Thursday, 11 Nov 2010

      “In fact CO2 is like a thermostat” Not CO2 – clouds and water vapour “and the changes we are causing to the concentration is significant enough to cause considerable temperature change” But global temperatures have plateaued over the last decade, so the hypothesized “considerable temperature change” from rising CO2 levels just is not happening. Scary story over.
      show more close

      With respect all those comments are nonsense and totally refuted by the the major science academies, and the published peer reviewed research. For example what counts is obviously not short term temperature or heat energy fluctuations but the longer term trend. One glance at either the surface or satellite data shows a rising temperature trend from around 1970 to this year clearly shown in the following graph. Http:/
      show more close

      “the longer term trend”
      I agree with this. The Earth has certainly warmed coming out of the Little Ice Age (LIA), but overlaid on that is a warm-cool-warm-cool natural cycle (remember the 70’s “Global Cooling” scare).
      We have just experienced a warm phase and are now entering a cool phase. The warm phase will be back around 2050 and probably much warmer than present. This is all natural cycle with no CO2 level correlation.

      Economies will have to get used to a cooler climate over the next 30 years or so and the Kiwifruit sector has been the latest to be acquainted to this reality. Quoting from NZ Herald “Hundreds of millions of kiwifruit dollars at risk”:-
      “New Zealand scientists have suggested a colder winter than normal combined with a wetter spring than usual can trigger a surge in infections.”
      The same thing happened in Italy.
      So a cooling climate is now having a real impact as opposed to the non-existent impact of an imaginary warming climate.
      South America bore the economic brunt of last SH winter cold and so did Britain, Europe, Russia, Mongolia, China and North America during last NH winter.
      Time to face reality – get the coal out of the hole.

      Nonentity (Mt Maunganui)
      01:15PM Thursday, 11 Nov 2010

      Gandalf, you seem to have convinced yourself that skepticalscience is the last word on everything climatic.
      To give you an idea of the resources we have at hand, here’s a link to a Climate Conversation Group index. As you can see from our access to climate science papers alone, we really don’t need to run everything through a skepticalscience filter.
      Disproving agw
      Controversy and scandal
      Energy and fuel
      ets and carbon taxes
      Climate science
      Water Vapour
      Temperature records
      Ocean and Heat
      Solar and Cosmic
      ipcc science
      ipcc organisation
      ipcc politics
      New Zealand
      South America
      Sea levels
      Polar regions, glaciers and ice
      Global warming
      Ocean acidification
      We also have a thread dealing with Radiative Transfer Modelling and Global Climate Models that you might be interested in:

  12. Richard C (NZ) on 09/11/2010 at 9:08 am said:

    Hundreds of millions of kiwifruit dollars at risk

    8:18 PM Monday Nov 8, 2010

    Orchardists growing gold kiwifruit may have had their hopes of bonanza returns this season dashed as they wait on scientific confirmation that a vine-killing bacteria – which hits gold kiwifruit particularly hard – has established in New Zealand.


    New Zealand scientists have suggested a colder winter than normal combined with a wetter spring than usual can trigger a surge in infections.

  13. Richard C (NZ) on 11/11/2010 at 4:10 pm said:

    Green Party To Host Conference On Sustainable Economics

    Wednesday, 10 November, 2010 – 16:13

    Sustainable Economics Conference, Friday, November 12.

    Green MPs Russel Norman and Kennedy Graham, world-renowned scientist Dr David Suzuki, National and Labour MPs, and others The Green Party is hosting an economics conference at Parliament this Friday to explore how to build sustainability into our economic management, the Green Party said today.

    “We’re hosting an economics conference to look at how we can build an economy that works for the long-term for our children and our children’s children,” said Green Party Co-leader, Dr Russel Norman.

    “Our current economic theories aren’t working well for us. Economic growth alone is not a useful measure of prosperity. A focus on growth hides widening inequalities in our communities and destroys the natural ecosystems that are the foundation of a healthy economy.”

    Some of New Zealand’s best minds along with world renowned scientist and leader in sustainable ecology, Dr David Suzuki, will be attending the conference. National and Labour MPs will join Green MPs to present their respective ideas on economic sustainability.

    “The Green Party has pulled together some of the best and brightest minds from around New Zealand to have a green economic conversation right here in Parliament,” said Dr Norman.

    “This is a conference about Green economics and Green business. We’ll have representatives of various business sectors exploring win-win solutions, showing it’s possible to make money while saving the planet at the same time.

    “We’ll also have green theorists looking at how we can change our economic system so that it doesn’t destroy the planet. New measures for defining ‘progress’ will also be discussed.

    “There are smart economic solutions that can improve quality of life and the environment and move the focus away from indiscriminate growth,” said Dr Norman.

    Now is the time for green economics, so the Green Party is leading the discussion of how we can make our economy work smarter by working sustainably.”

  14. Richard C (NZ) on 16/11/2010 at 10:20 pm said:

    From the vendors of NIWA’s UKMO UM climate model.

    September 28, 2009 Joe Romm

    UK Met Office: Catastrophic climate change, 13-18°F over most of U.S. and 27°F in the Arctic, could happen in 50 years, but “we do have time to stop it if we cut greenhouse gas emissions soon.”

    “I’m talking about running a high emissions scenario (i.e. business as usual) in one of the few global climate models capable of analyzing strong carbon cycle feedbacks.”

    Junk science at its very best.

  15. Richard C (NZ) on 16/12/2010 at 4:50 pm said:

    High power prices cause business pain

    16 December 2010

    Major Energy Users Group says the Bluff aluminium smelter won’t be the only business cutting production due to high power costs


    © 2010 NZCity, NewsTalkZB

    High lake levels.

    Please explain.

    $1 million a week in lost export earnings

  16. Richard C (NZ) on 16/12/2010 at 8:21 pm said:

    NIWA Releases Review Of NZ Temperature Trends

    Thursday, 16 December, 2010 – 18:14 – Voxy

    NIWA today released a report reviewing its seven station temperature series, which adds to its analysis of New Zealand’s temperature trends over the past 100 years.

    The report was independently peer reviewed by Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology to ensure the ideas, methods, and conclusions stood up in terms of scientific accuracy, logic, and consistency.

    NIWA CEO John Morgan confirmed that the scientists from the Bureau’s National Climate Centre concluded that the results and underlying methodology used by NIWA were sound.

    “We asked the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to conduct the peer review to ensure a thorough examination by an independent, internationally respected, climate science organisation”, said NIWA CEO John Morgan.

    Mr Morgan confirmed that the scientists from the Bureau’s National Climate Centre concluded that the results and underlying methodology used by NIWA were sound.

    NIWA’s seven station temperature series comprises temperature records from Auckland, Wellington, Masterton, Nelson, Hokitika, Lincoln, and Dunedin. The seven locations were chosen because they have robust and well documented temperature records that go back 100 years or more, and they represent a good geographical spread across New Zealand.

    Temperature data from the seven locations were first examined 30 years ago by leading New Zealand climatologist, Dr Jim Salinger. After making some adjustments for changes in measurement sites, Dr Salinger concluded that the average New Zealand temperature had warmed significantly during the 20th Century.

    The series from the seven stations were reviewed in 1992, and then updated annually. They indicated a warming of about 0.9C over the 100 years up to 2009.

    In 2010, NIWA re-analysed the Hokitika station temperature series and published the results to demonstrate the methodology applied in creating a temperature series. Because of the public interest in climate data, the NIWA Board and the Minister of Research, Science & Technology, Dr Wayne Mapp, asked that a full review of each of the seven sites be undertaken by NIWA. That review has been completed, independently peer reviewed, and the report released today represents the results of that work.

    “I am not surprised that this internationally peer reviewed 2010 report of the seven station temperature series has confirmed that NIWA’s science was sound. It adds to the scientific knowledge that shows that New Zealand’s temperature has risen by about 0.9 degrees over the past 100 years” Mr Morgan said.

    • Richard C (NZ) on 17/12/2010 at 10:12 am said:

      Niwa says data proves NZ is warming

      Published: 8:04AM Friday December 17, 2010 Source: NZPA – TVNZ

      State science company Niwa has issued an independent report which it says backs up the science used in its analysis that temperatures in New Zealand have risen.

      National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) scientists last year used analysis of long-term measurements from seven weather stations showing warming – backed up by other observations, including measurements from ships – to show the climate change in New Zealand.

      But some sceptics claimed the work may have involved “selective” science and the Climate Conversation Group and the Climate Science Coalition released their own analysis claiming that unadjusted temperature readings from seven weather stations with 100-year-plus records – Auckland, Masterton, Wellington, Hokitika, Nelson, Lincoln and Dunedin – were stable and did not show a warming trend.

      Also in Scoop (Press Release)

      NIWA releases review of NZ temperature trends
      Friday, 17 December 2010, 9:04 am
      Press Release: NIWA

      NIWA Media Release 16 December 2010

      NIWA releases review of NZ temperature trends

  17. Richard C (NZ) on 19/12/2010 at 2:26 pm said:

    The next oil shock?


    Parliamentary support, Research papers
    October 2010



    Oil market basics [Instructive graphics]


    Running out of low-cost oil

    Production constraints

    Geological constraints

    Infrastructure constraints

    Supply crunch/price spike

    Growing demand

    Decreasing supply buffer

    Economic implications

    New Zealand’s oil potential and domestic implications of oil shocks


    The global economy is heavily dependent on affordable oil.

    It may seem counter-intuitive that, when oil reserves and production capacity are higher than ever, the future of the oil market appears bleak. The problem is that production capacity is not expected to keep up with demand. That fact leads to severe economic consequences.

    To replace the declining production from existing oil wells and increase production, oil companies are forced to extract oil in more difficult and expensive conditions (deep-water, oil sands, lignite to liquids) from smaller, less favourable reserves. The marginal (price-setting) barrel of oil costs around US$75-$85 a barrel to produce. This will continue to rise with higher demand and exhaustion of reserves.

    Although there remain large reserves of oil which can be extracted, the world’s daily capacity to extract oil cannot keep increasing indefinitely. A point will be reached where it is not economically and physically feasible to replace the declining production from existing wells and add new production fast enough for total production capacity to increase. Projections from the IEA and other groups have this occurring, at least temporarily, as soon as 2012.

    The difference between the global capacity to produce oil and global demand is the supply buffer. When the supply buffer is large, oil prices will be low. When the supply buffer shrinks – due to demand rising faster than production capacity or production capacity falling – prices will rise as markets add in the risk that supply will not be available to meet demand at any given point in time.

    When a supply crunch forces oil prices beyond a certain point, the cost of oil forces consumers and businesses to cut other spending, inducing a recession. The recession destroys demand for oil, allowing prices to drop. Major international organisations are warning of another supply crunch as soon as 2012.

    The world may be entering an era defined by relatively short periods of economic growth terminating in oil price spikes and recession.

    New Zealand is not immune to the consequences of this situation. In fact, its dependency on bulk exports and tourism makes New Zealand very vulnerable to oil shocks.

    Clint Smith

    Research Analyst, Economics and Industry Team

    Parliamentary Library
    Copyright: © NZ Parliamentary Library, 2010

    Except for educational purposes permitted under the Copyright Act 1994, no part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means…….

  18. Richard C (NZ) on 19/12/2010 at 3:17 pm said:

    Greenhouse effect and climate change: a resource document for New Zealand MPs

    Parliamentary support, Research papers

    2001/09 4 September 2001

    The Government has announced its intention to ratify the Kyoto Protocol by September 2002. This will require passage of appropriate legislation.

    To assist Members in familiarising themselves with the international and local background on this issue, the Parliamentary Library has prepared a detailed paper, available to all Members and support staff on request. This note provides the executive summary from the paper, and a summary of its contents.

    • The “greenhouse effect” is a natural phenomenon in which certain gases in the lower atmosphere prevent some of the heat energy radiated from the Earth from escaping. The human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases (CO2, methane, nitrous oxide, and some industrial gases) have over the last few centuries added to this effect, making global temperatures warmer than they would otherwise be and affecting global weather patterns.

    • The hole in the ozone layer is a separate phenomenon, but there are a few linkages with the greenhouse effect. For example, some gases which deplete ozone in the upper atmosphere (CFCs) also act as greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere, and the trapping of heat in the lower atmosphere by the greenhouse effect leads to a cooler upper atmosphere and a slower recovery time for the ozone layer.

    • Average global surface temperature has already increased about 0.6°C since 1860.1 The freeze-free season has lengthened in many regions over 1950-1993. In New Zealand and Australia, temperatures have risen 0.5 to 0.9°C.

    • During the 20th century global sea level has already risen 0.1 to 0.2 metres and rainfall patterns have changed in many areas. In New Zealand and Australia, sea level has risen on average about 20 mm per decade over the last 50-100 years and rainfall trends have followed the cyclical El Niño events.

    • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)2 has reported new and stronger evidence that most of the global warming observed over the last 150 years is attributable to human activities. If only human or natural influences on the climate are separately modelled they do not fully explain the historical changes, but there is a good match for both human and natural influences combined.

    • Before significant human influence, the climate of the Earth alternated between warm and cold periods over cycles of tens of thousands of years (e.g. the Cambrian and Cretaceous eras and a number of Ice Ages). However, since the Industrial Revolution human activity has led to concentrations of CO2 and methane higher than at any time during the past 420,000 years, and CO2the highest it has been for the last 20 million years.

    • The world is already committed to some climate change which cannot be avoided, due to the long life in the atmosphere of the greenhouse gases already emitted over the last few centuries and the inertia in aspects of the global climate system.

    • Over the next century, there is a 90-99% chance of higher maximum and minimum temperatures, more hot days, fewer cold and frost days, and reduced daytime temperature ranges over nearly all land areas.

    • If greenhouse gas emissions are not controlled, the result of 35 modelling scenarios predicts that global average temperature will increase by 1.4°C to 5.8°C over the period 1990 to 2100, a rate of warming without precedent over the last 10,000 years. Sea-ice, glaciers, snow cover and ice caps are predicted to decrease, contributing to a global mean sea level rise of 0.09 to 0.88 metres over 1990-2100, and intense precipitation events (drought and flood). Tropical cyclones are predicted to increase in some areas.

    • The impacts are expected to fall disproportionately on the poorest people. Those with the fewest resources have the least capacity to adapt and are the most vulnerable.

    • Rainfall predictions for New Zealand arise from the expectation that cyclical El Niño events will increase or be exacerbated by global climate change. During El Niño events in the summer there are stronger and more frequent winds from the west, causing more rain in western areas and more drought on the east coast. In the winter, the wind is more from the south causing colder conditions.


  19. Richard C (NZ) on 05/01/2011 at 12:53 pm said:

    Did anyone else see this in the NIWA press release?

    “What does the re-analysis show?”

  20. Richard C (NZ) on 26/01/2011 at 8:33 am said:

    Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Centre Awards Contracts

    Friday, 21 January 2011, 10:10 am

    Press Release: Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre

    The MAF funded New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Centre (NZAGRC) has announced on behalf of its nine partners, the first 18 science programmes that will receive long term funding through the Centre. The Centre’s science programme will accelerate progress in world class research programmes; some of which are already underway in New Zealand and others that will open up promising new areas of research. The total value of this initial investment is $15.5m over four years. ……….continues

    This is what happens when “We accept the science” (Nick Smith).

    • Andy on 26/01/2011 at 9:12 am said:

      I expect that there will be several areas of research that will benefit (e.g yield improvement), not just GHG emission reduction, which strikes me as a very low priority.

      Some of this stuff does look a bit like GM. Don’t the Greens dislike that?

      However, it looks good on the bargaining table, doing our bit, etc.

  21. Richard C (NZ) on 27/01/2011 at 8:45 am said:

    Which ‘climate science’ does Minister Smith accept?

    Wednesday, 26 January 2011, 3:03 pm

    Press Release: New Zealand Climate Science Coalition

    “Minister Nick Smith told the Herald ‘we accept the science.’ Fine. What science is that – the 2007 version (when the ETS Bill was introduced) or the 2011 version?

    • Mike Jowsey on 27/01/2011 at 11:28 am said:

      Trouble is, he only accepts the science we wants to accept. If he was to accept the doubt in the science and the subsequent shakiness of the AGW theory, he would be out of a ministerial portfolio. No climate issues? No Ministry of Climate Change Issues needed.

      That’s a brilliant piece by Barry Brill. Thanks for the link, RC.

  22. Andy on 01/04/2011 at 9:46 am said:

    Scientists give chilling warnings on climate

    New Zealanders have been issued with a stark warning to expect “surprises” by scientists who say they cannot keep up with extreme weather events linked to climate change.

    Scientists opened a climate change conference in Wellington yesterday by stating that changes in climate being experienced around the globe were beyond their worst-case scenarios.

    The founding director of the Climate Change Research Institute, Martin Manning, said policy-makers needed to stop waiting for scientists to come up with answers about trends for the future, or definite measurements for how much sea levels or temperatures would rise by.

    Almost simultaneously, devastating floods battered Sir Lanka, Brazil and Queensland earlier this year. Professor Manning said policy-makers should start getting prepared for greater risks, instead of waiting for the lengthy process of scientists linking events together.

    Extreme rainfall around the world had been more than scientists had been predicting from climate models.

    “Society needs to take over from science when we’re talking about global risk management.

    Read more…

    • Bob D on 01/04/2011 at 10:41 am said:

      At first I thought this was an April-Fool’s Day spoof. But apparently not, they appear to be serious!

      Almost simultaneously, devastating floods battered Sir Lanka, Brazil and Queensland earlier this year.

      Let’s see, just about the same time that the La Nina occurred, the same sort of La Nina that always causes these events.

      Martin Manning, said policy-makers needed to stop waiting for scientists to come up with answers about trends for the future, or definite measurements for how much sea levels or temperatures would rise by.

      I’m not surprised he said that. The answers the scientists come up with are just plain embarrassing. Better not to pretend the policies are based on science any more.

    • Andy on 01/04/2011 at 11:31 am said:

      The question is, if they are not basing policy on science, what are they basing it on?

      Maybe they should talk to Ken Ring about reading cats paws.

    • Richard C (NZ) on 03/04/2011 at 6:58 am said:

      The conflation of climate change and extreme weather seems to be the alarmist MO now their other scary stories are not working out.

      Much easier to make it up as you go along.

    • Clarence on 03/04/2011 at 10:48 pm said:

      “policy-makers needed to stop waiting for scientists to come up with answers about trends for the future”

      Why did Martin Manning (of IPCC fame) say that? Was it because:

      (a) Scientists have no idea;
      (b) If all the climate modelers in the world were laid end-to-end, they still wouldn’t agree?
      (c) Policy-makers should make up their own numbers;
      (d) Seers, soothsayers and prophets are better at this kind of thing;
      (e) It’s all pure guesswork anyway;
      (f) Scientist aren’t stupid: they can see the wheels coming off this bandwagon;
      (g) Don’t just stand there – do something!

  23. Andy on 02/04/2011 at 9:47 am said:

    Erik Conway (co-author of Merchants of Doubt) was on Kim Hill’s Saturday show today.
    I almost switched off when he stated “The science was settled two decades ago”

    Other than that, the usual stuff that journalists should only listen to “credible sources”

    It will be on podcast eventually if you have the stomach for it.

  24. Ron on 02/04/2011 at 12:10 pm said:

    Do watch Prof Vincent Courtillot’s lecture if you haven’t done so
    (HT Jo Nova and Bishop Hill)
    what a brilliant tour de force, essential viewing. Clear evidence that the science is far from settled !

  25. Andy on 03/05/2011 at 12:28 pm said:

    An Anatomy of Denial

    Ahead of a visit to Auckland, Chris Barton talks to writer Naomi Oreskes about influential scientists who have prevented changes which could improve millions of lives

    It’s when she’s asked if she sees any connection between global warming denial and Holocaust denial that Naomi Oreskes kicks for touch.

    “I would feel very reluctant to be saying much about that phenomenon,” says the University of California professor of History and Science Studies.

    “Other than to say we know denial is a powerful force and we see it in lots of different ways and different places for different reasons.”

    More riveting reading at The Herald here:

  26. Andy on 22/05/2011 at 4:07 pm said:

    Labour opposition leader Phil Goff will introduce farmers into the ETS two years earlier, in January 2013.

    That $800 million would be paid for by making agriculture sector pay under the emissions trading scheme from January 2013, rather than the current 2015. It would also make agriculture pay for its full emissions more quickly, rather than slowly increasing its liability over time.


    A missile system for Navy frigates would also be scrapped.

    Labour would also reverse National’s tax cuts for high income earners.

    “I’m not knocking people for being successful. Good on them. But I am telling our top earners today that they need to pay a little more to help reduce our debt and get the economy growing.”

    Just to remind Mr Goff that 13% of the population pay 50% of the tax, but I digress..

  27. Mike Jowsey on 22/05/2011 at 5:38 pm said:

    Isn’t it wonderful to have a whole new tax to play with and make promises about?

    Goff promising lots of new Research & Development funds paid for by Agri-ETS.

  28. Andy on 10/07/2011 at 1:35 pm said:

    The “Pure Advantage” campaign has just kicked off in NZ to promote Green growth.

    I had a quick look through their website and found some dubious statements fairly quickly:

    Denmark is often quoted as a good example of how a country has adapted to the opportunities available in the alternative energy space. However Denmark’s transformation into the world’s largest exporter of wind technology, a USD 9 billion export industry, wasn’t driven by a simple belief in global warning and climate change, it was driven by the oil shock in the 1970s and the resulting desire for energy security.

    The Danes themselves admit that they got lucky, as post-Kyoto, as the demand for wind power took off.

    The Danes are a net exporter of wind power because they sell wind power at pepper corn rates to Norway, at or below the cost of production. They are one of the highest emitters of GHGs in Europe.

    Not one fossil fuel-powered station has been decommissioned in Denmark. Wind companies are now backing off on-shore development because of the public backlash against them.

    You can leave your thoughts on “Pure Advantage” on their facebook page

    Note. I am not against all “sustainable” practices. Far from it: I believe it is vitally important.
    However, I do rail against those you start using the “low-carbon” brand, especially when they make false or misleading claims, like the Danish example above.

  29. Andy on 17/07/2011 at 10:24 am said:

    The NZ Herald has an article somewhat critical of Chris de Freitas for not teaching “consensus science”.

    discussed at Bishop Hill

  30. Andy on 20/07/2011 at 6:50 pm said:

    Pure Advantage:

    These guys are interesting (worrying?)

    They are promoting “green growth” in NZ, yet are very happy to use Greenpeace as a reference.
    I left a message on their Facebook page:

    Dr Patrick Moore, a founding member of Greenpeace, made this statement about the organisation he helped to create: “Greenpeace became increasingly senseless as it adopted an agenda that is antiscience, antibusiness, and downright antihuman ”

    So my question is, why would a business consortium promoting growth support an organisation that is “antiscience, antibusiness, and downright antihuman” according to its co-founder?

    • Mike Jowsey on 20/07/2011 at 8:20 pm said:

      I would lean towards worrying, Andy. On their “Threats on the Horizon” page they show an article in the Guardian by Fred “the Puke” Pearce about how NZ’s emissions have gone up 22% since Kyoto. Looks to me like they are tuned in to the alarmists.

      They also show an article by Dr. Anna Thompson who is into ecotourism and sustainable tourism. All good green fun.

    • Andy on 21/07/2011 at 8:12 am said:

      My feelings are that these guys are all about “brand” and stuff the consequences.
      The 42 Below guy behind this is the ultimate “all brand no substance” product maker who sold his version of ethanol (vodka) to Bacardi for a princely sum, based purely on brand.
      Steven Tyndall brought us The Warehouse and all things rubbish made in China powered by our coal.

      The green bubble is the next version of dotcom. It will crash and burn with the impending global financial meltdown.

    • Mike Jowsey on 12/08/2011 at 6:07 pm said:

      Pure Advantage group links to a NZ webinar-type warmist group called The Climate Show

      About 8 minutes in he explains the Pure Advantage mission:

      Further down Alice’s tunnel we find this on the NZ Government’s Green Growth initiative:

      The Government has asked an Advisory Group to look at three Green Growth topics of particular importance in this country:

      Helping exporters make the most of a “clean, green” New Zealand brand
      Making smarter use of technology and innovation
      Moving businesses to a lower-carbon economy

    • Andy on 12/08/2011 at 7:19 pm said:

      I am glad you are on the case.
      The Climate Show is Gareth Renowdens creation (hot topic)

      pure advantage is, from what I can see, a warmist propaganda channel, happy to quote Joe Romm, Skeptical Science and others of the usual suspects. These guys have massive billboards in airports.

      we need to keep our eyes on these characters.

    • Mike Jowsey on 21/09/2011 at 12:55 pm said:

      A Message To The Crony Capitalists at PURE ADVANTAGE

      If you’ve got such great business skills, and such great business ideas, then just go and damn well do it.

      Don’t cuddle up to crypto-communists like the self serving political chameleon Russell Norman, and demand the government subsidize your businesses.

      It’s quite a good rant.

  31. Mike Jowsey on 30/08/2011 at 6:22 pm said:

    Andy – you’ll love this! It’s belly-rolling-laugh-a-minute stuff. Don’t forget to read the comments.

    “Connecting the dots – melting ice and earthquakes

    “Considering the two recent unusually large earthquakes: first in New Zealand and then in Japan, it would be helpful at this point to look at the story behind the story that has not been explored by our major media. It may not be apparent to everyone.”

  32. Al on 02/09/2011 at 3:40 pm said:

    I was outraged to see today that the NZ government has allocated $25million to research ways to mitigate methane production by ruminants. A lot of this money will be spent overseas.

    It would be better for our economy if they spent it on proving methane doesn’t matter, with more likelihood of success.


  33. Pingback: A Message To The Crony Capitalists at PURE ADVANTAGE | TrueblueNZ

  34. Richard C (NZ) on 09/10/2011 at 12:26 pm said:

    Three marine energy projects announced

    The projects are a wave energy device at Stewart Island, a cable linking to another device at Wellington’s Moa Point and turbines at Parnell Baths in Auckland.

    Meanwhile, funding has been withdrawn for a separate tidal stream generator at Kaipara Harbour after the company involved, Crest Energy, failed to meet timelines.

  35. Richard C (NZ) on 29/10/2011 at 3:35 pm said:

    ‘Occupy’ protesters to target Auckland banks

    Published: 4:24PM Friday October 28, 2011 Source: ONE News

    Occupy Auckland’ protesters will march on Auckland banks this weekend as part of a global day of action calling for a ‘Robin Hood’ tax.


    The group is calling for a Financial Transaction Tax, which is says would end unemployment, stop climate change and eradicate global poverty.


    Must be magic money.

  36. Andy on 03/11/2011 at 11:52 am said:

    Nats hope we focus on rugby – not global warming
    Richard Boock

    Yet another load of strawmen arguments and misunderstanding from an NZ journalist

    Added my 2c in comments, awaiting moderation

  37. Richard C (NZ) on 04/11/2011 at 5:53 pm said:

    Is this old news to everyone else (i.e. am I the last to twig) that “Nick” is or could be lead researcher, Associate Professor Nick Wilson?

    Nick hasn’t turned up lately. It might be because he was busy on a review of Government policy and action on climate change and writing this Press Release, see:-

    “Action on climate change policy falls well short”

    “climate-damaging emissions” “potentially at catastrophic levels”.is something that Nick would come up with and Mike Palin was his coach for a while.

    Oddly, the study is in the New Zealand Medical Journal: ‘End-of-term review of the New Zealand Government’s response to climate change: A public health perspective’ (by Associate Professor Nick Wilson and colleagues, Wellington) is published this week, available at

    But that’s behind a pay-wall.

    Apparently there’s 140 or more senior doctors and other health professionals (OraTaiao) concerned about climate change impacts on health and health services, see:-

    “Doctors say New Zealand fiddles while the world burns”

    As if NZ could do anything to stop the world burning – wherever that’s happening.

    • Andy on 04/11/2011 at 7:25 pm said:

      I hadn’t “twigged” anything about Nick.
      However, I do have a particular bee in my bonnet about those in the medical profession who decide that it is their role in life to become ambassadors for the climate change movement.

      I’m so glad you posted this Richard. Now I have some names that I can address my concerns about fuel poverty (big problem in the UK thanks to Green energy policies), deaths in Africa because of biofuel policies, etc etc

      So far, there is no tangible evidence of human suffering due to AGW. Nothing. Period. Read Roger Pielke Jnr’s “The Climate Fix” for his dissection of the lies in the WHO reports.

  38. Richard C (NZ) on 10/12/2011 at 1:09 pm said:

    Dredged up this article from 2006 by Cindy Baxter who is posting at [Cold] Topic from Durban:-

    Cindy Baxter: Climate of doubt

    3:08 PM Friday May 5, 2006

    The British Government’s chief scientist, Sir David King, has warned that climate change is the most serious threat facing the planet..

    In the face of overwhelming evidence that the human race is causing the climate to change, there has been a resurgence of activity of climate science scepticism.

    On Monday, the new Climate Science Coalition was launched in New Zealand. The coalition includes a member of a conservative think tank, scientists linked with the climate sceptic movement, and a former national co-ordinator of the National Party’s Blue Greens.

    Three weeks ago, a letter signed by 60 scientists, including members of the NZ Climate Science Coalition, wrote to the newly elected conservative Canadian Government, pushing for it to abandon the Kyoto Protocol. The letter was followed by another, from scientists, calling on Canada to stick with Kyoto.

    These efforts are the latest in a campaign run by vested interests to discredit climate science and to stop the Kyoto Protocol from going forward.

    But their arguments have little to do with science, and everything to do with politics and business.


    * Cindy Baxter is the Greenpeace campaign manager and co-author of the website

    I note that there were no following comments in pre-Climategate 2006 (I know I wasn’t putting my oar in then). I’m sure there would be today considering that she manages to vilify:-

    NZ Climate Science Coalition
    Frank Luntz
    Neo-conservative think tanks
    “the climate sceptic industry”
    George C. Marshall Institute
    Global Climate Coalition
    Dr Sallie Baliunas
    Vincent Gray
    Bob Carter
    Australian Institute of Public Affairs
    Willie Soon
    American Petroleum Institute
    Chris de Freitas
    The Media (see below)

    Sainthood (by implication) is bestowed on:-

    Sir David King

    “has warned that climate change is the most serious threat facing the planet”

    Michael Mann

    “major climate scientist”

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

    “identified by 17 national academies of sciences as the pre-eminent authority on climate science”

    Lord May

    “There is no danger this lobby will influence the scientists. But they don’t need to. It is the influence on the media that is so poisonous.”

  39. John in NZ on 09/02/2012 at 1:01 pm said:

    Not sure where to put this .

    The New Zealand Carbon Credit market seems to be in freefall.

    According to

    “The price of New Zealand units (NZUs) has crashed from $22 in May to about $11 last week, stifling interest in developing carbon offsetting initiatives here, according to carbon market participants.

    The price crash has been so steep that by one calculation, if the price trend continued for another 100 days, the value of NZU credits would be zero.

    The reasons for the crash appear to be the unfettered ability of New Zealand emitters to import credits of dubious quality from overseas, coupled with the recent dumping of international credits by cash-strapped European industrial and utilities companies selling down their stockpiles of carbon to realise cash as the debt crisis worsens, participants in the fledgling carbon trading market say. ”


    Prices have fallen since then. According to

    an “indicative price” is $13.25 for 30000 NZUs.

    I assume this means for 30 tonnes. Does this mean the price is $4.42 per 10 tonne?

  40. Richard C (NZ) on 22/02/2012 at 7:53 am said:

    University of Auckland has had its head in the clouds

    Published: 6:15AM Wednesday February 22, 2012 Source: ONE News

    The University of Auckland has had its head in the clouds, and its conclusion is they are getting lower.

    The university looked at ten years of data from Nasa’s terra telescope to discover the average cloud height decresed by 1% over the past decade.

    The telescope showed fewer clouds were occuring at higher altitudes.

    Researchers believe a significant reduction in cloud height would lead to reducing the surface temperature of the planet and slowing global warming.

  41. Andy on 20/03/2012 at 7:12 pm said:

    WUWT reports on a claim in Nature that NZ could lose 85% of its glaciers by 2100

    • Mike Jowsey on 21/03/2012 at 9:42 am said:

      “They used the IPCC assumptions to model the IPCC results. “

      Justthinkin says:
      March 19, 2012 at 2:05 pm
      “using a middle-of-the-road IPCC scenario for future emissions of greenhouse gases.”

      Hummmmmm. Looks like David beat me to it!LOL But that extract right there completely destroys any credibility these guys may have had. They used a GIGO model of a GIGO model to come up with another GIGO model??? And they wonder why most people with more than two brain cells and critical thinking skills call them “cultists in the CAGW religion”? Just follow the money.

      tallbloke says:
      March 19, 2012 at 2:58 pm
      New Zealand’s mountain ranges could lose up to 85% of their glaciers by 2100 say the team.
      Was the team using Jim Salinger’s imaginary NZ temperature record?


    • Andy on 21/03/2012 at 10:02 am said:

      yes I saw that comment from Tallbloke too. NZ’s reputation travels far and wide.

      PS Mike you were pretty close with your earthquake prediction, as Mexico got hit by a 7.4 today

    • Mike Jowsey on 21/03/2012 at 1:49 pm said:

      Hmm – yes, it falls within the broad scope of what Terral was saying, but he was specifically predicting a 9.0 or greater, probably in NZ.

      March 22, 2012 is the day our researchers expect that Earth axis will shift 5 inches with aquifers around the globe and a 9+ magnitude earthquake event that will likely be included among the top ten in Earth history. This marks the next day on the 188-Day Cycle that is part of a pattern of seismicity extending back to 1965 (Mensur Omberbashich April 11, 2012 to Cornell). Other events on the 188-day cycle took place on February 27, 2010 (Chile 8.8*), September 4, 2010 (Christchurch 7.1*), March 11, 2011 (Japan 9.0*) and September 15, 2011 (Fiji 7.3*). The Earth experienced Earth axis shifts of three inches and four inches respectively with the nearside alignments and earth aquifer shifts connected to the Chile and Japan events. The historical precedent established by this seismic event pattern says the next Earth axis shift will take place in March 22, 2012 and will be five inches or greater.


      I take it with a pinch of salt, especially from a bible-thumper like Terral03. However, it’s of interest. Ken Ring predicts 6+ quakes on 23rd & 26th. We’ll see. Take care 😉

  42. Andy on 17/04/2012 at 8:24 pm said:

    Another NZ blog on the scene, with some interesting stuff on Windfarms and earthquake risk

  43. Mike Jowsey on 18/04/2012 at 8:23 am said:

    It has been estimated that the ETS has cost the average family of four around $750 a year since it was introduced in 2010. The government is now planning to double that cost to around $1,500 a year over the next three years.[1] The change won’t take place in a single step, but will be phased in – increasing by a third in 2013, by another third in 2014, with the final third in 2015. At that stage the average household will be paying around $30 a week in the increased costs for power, fuel, and most other goods and services caused by the imposition of a $25 a tonne carbon charge onto our economy.

    And further on…

    It gets worse. The Minister will have power to ban imports, so as to be a quasi-monopoly supplier. Auction prices will be pushed up to $25 from the current market level of about $7 per unit. On top of all this, the obligation on energy companies will be doubled over three years. In summary, the burden on energy companies is to increase from $7 to $50 for two units. Virtually all of this 7-fold increase is a new tax.

  44. Andy on 02/05/2012 at 9:09 am said:

    No go for climate change in appeals

    We can’t use “climate change” as a case for objecting to coal mining in (for example) the Denniston case.

    Gosh, do we see some common sense prevailing amongst our jurisdiction?

  45. Andy on 16/06/2012 at 8:27 pm said:

    Has Gareth Morgen seen the light or speaking what he has always thought with regard to the loony left?

  46. Richard C (NZ) on 03/07/2012 at 4:41 pm said:

    Gareth Renowden at Hot Topic accuses EXXON CEO of an “intellectually obtuse position on climate impacts” “far from what the science points to”:-

    His conclusion that the impacts will be manageable is far from what the science points to.

    For an example of what “the science” points to, Gareth quotes the alarmist ramblings of James Hansen:-

    Remember how James Hansen sums up the picture of what lies ahead if we exploit and burn fossil fuels from the new unconventional sources, and continue to burn our conventional oil, gas and coal supplies:

    Apparently “the science” and James Hansen are interchangeable.

    If nothing else, you have to admire Gareth’s chutzpah.

  47. Mike Jowsey on 06/07/2012 at 12:14 pm said:

    Scientists concerned about Niwa cuts

    Scientists are worried by Niwa’s plans to cut three jobs at an internationally important atmospheric research station in Lauder, Central Otago.

    New Zealand Association of Scientists past president associate professor James Renwick said the cuts would “spell the end of the world-class climate measurement science programme at Lauder”.

  48. Anthropogenic Global Cooling on 06/07/2012 at 12:23 pm said:

    Looks like the government is about to defund NIWA’s global warming dept.

    • Mike Jowsey on 07/07/2012 at 5:17 pm said:

      Gee I wonder if this will impact their legal budget 😉

    • Anthropogenic Global Cooling on 08/07/2012 at 9:12 am said:

      I think the defunding, in combination with the govt’s recent changes to the ETS, are signs the govt will slowly start withdrawing from the ETS. Gillard will lose the election in the West Island at the next election and her carbon tax will be reversed, which will be the catalyst for the Nats to pull out of the AGW scam. I think the writing is on the wall & I can’t wait to see the greens and alarmists squealing like little pigs over it – it’ll almost be worth the money they extorted from me to witness their collective gnashing of teeth & howls of ‘blasphemy’ …. almost.

    • Mike Jowsey on 08/07/2012 at 9:54 am said:

      Nice, but a little wishful. I agree with Gillard losing, but I think Key and co won’t want to part with the $550m currently being squeezed out of the economy under the guise of saving the planet. They might rename it, repackage it, but they won’t let it go. Probably do away with the ETS, change it to a tax and call it something like “Sustainability Tax”.

  49. Richard C (NZ) on 08/07/2012 at 2:44 pm said:

    Spring around the corner and Mike’s cherries and BOP kiwifruit at risk of frost got me thinking about frost damage to fruit and frost protection. Not much heard about this recently due to a kinder climate regime but if that regime drops back to a cooler level over the next decade (I think it will) protection systems will make big paybacks.

    Kiwifruit has moved away from helicopters to irrigation since about 2004 and sector providors have been active e.g. AgFirst:-

    In recent years the New Zealand horticultural industry including the pipfruit, kiwifruit and viticultural industries have experienced damaging frosts due to colder weather patterns during spring and right through to as late as November each year.

    Early fruit varieties such as gold kiwifruit are particularly at risk to consecutive frost events during bud burst in mid-late August.

    The use of growth regulators such as Hi-Cane in apples and kiwifruit are widely used management tools for timing of bud burst and flower initiation.

    While giving the grower the advantage of bringing flowering forward and condensing flowering times, these tools unfortunately also expose the grower to greater risk from frost events. Without some form of frost protection, many growers can be severely set back due to the prevalence of untimely frost events.

    Wind machines will not always work, particularly in more severe advective “cold air” frosts, however irrigation water is a proven and reliable method. Craig has designed many highly effective systems with growers enjoying the benefit of long term crop stability and early payback on the capital expenditure.

    Lots of reading on this e.g. :-

    Frost protection: fundamentals, practice, and economics – Volume 1… Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations


    Freeze and frost definitions
    Radiation frost
    Advection frost
    Classification of protection methods
    Geographical assessment of frost damage to crops
    Economic importance of frost damage
    History of frost protection

    Practical Considerations for Reducing Frost Damage in
    Vineyards, Report to New Zealand Winegrowers: 1999

    Frost Protection in Orchards and Vineyards, Pacific North-west Washington USA

    And for Mike,

    An analysis of traditional and dwarf varieties and methods, for the Teviot valley, Central Otago.

    The critical time where cherry flowers will become damaged by frost begins at bud swelling, which in Central Otago is mid September. Cherries will tolerate some frosting at the flowering stage but the effects of frosting from the small green fruit stage on can be quite devastating, and after petal fall you could lose the entire crop, so frost control will become very important from early October onwards.

    The critical temperatures and their effects at various development stages are shown in the chart below.

    1. The old standard is the lowest temperature that can be endured for 30 minutes without bud damage.
    2. Temperature at which 10% and 90% of buds will be killed
    3. Data collected by researchers at Washington State University Prosser Research Centre and adjusted for Central Otago Flowering dates and to oC.

    • The Grow Otago project has determined that for 4 out of 5 years, the last frost will occur between 28th October and 6th November in the Teviot Valley. NIWA frost recording data at Ettrick (approx 5 km south of the author’s property) has a total of 8 frost readings, ranging from 0 to -3 degrees, for September and October 2002, the last one on Oct 14th. This would suggest that some frost protection would be required.

    Various methods could be used for frost protection as for most fruits.

    1. Diesel burning frost pots at 50/ Ha @ approx $150 ea. These need an inversion layer to trap the heat, and burn 10+ litres of diesel / night.

    2. Wind machines that use an inversion of warm air and circulate it back down through the crop. One machine per 4-6 Ha @ approx $55K for a new 4 blader. Will protect to -2° to -3° and are limited in advection type frosts which are rare, but that occurred in 2002.

    3. Water from overhead sprinklers will protect to -8°C, but needs to be applied continuously, can have negative impacts on the soil and can spread bacterial blast. Costs approx $7K-$10K / Ha for mainlines and pipe work. Sprinklers should only be turned off when ice is falling off or melting away from the fruit.

    So place your bets, when will the last frost be this year at Mike’s cherry orchard (where is it Mike)?

    • Thanks Richard – I’ve read that PDF on cherries – a bloody good reference which I have on my shelf. I am near Amberley, 50km north of Christchurch on SH1. Last year the last frost was on 3rd November. It was a very light one. Last year’s crop was about 60% of normal. Then we got the rain at Christmas which buggered everything! However, we strip-picked the split fruit, juiced it and got a local winery to produce a very smooth and rich Cherry Liqueur – similar to a port, with 17% alcohol. So all was not lost.

      However, back to the frost. As a small boutique orchard (500 trees) the justification of the capital outlay for wind, diesel or water protection is doubtful. Water is out as I am continually fighting bacterial blast (with largely organic methods) so couldn’t afford to exacerbate that problem. Another method would be to cover them with plastic. As the superstructure is already there to hold the bird nets over the trees, this might be okay as long as we didn’t get a late snowfall at sea level.

      We’ll see how it goes, I guess. I have pulled out all my apricots – about 1200 trees. I got 2 commercial crops in 10 years – the other years all wrecked by late frosts. Most years I can expect Labour Day to signal the end of frosts. If we are moving into a colder climate it may mean my cherries go the same way as the apricots. But that’s farming – adapt or die.

    • Richard C (NZ) on 08/07/2012 at 7:51 pm said:

      Heyyy! I’ve just clicked your Gracebrook website link Mike. That’s a new and exciting development here at CCG. Great cherry orchard pics and rundown of the years events

      Excellent and very interesting – although a tad sad by Update 04/01/2012 after Update 27/12/2011:”The stellas are looking beaudacious”.

      It was sobering to read (only skimmed so far – word-for-word later) in ‘Cherries’ by Mike Paterson, that rain and birds ranked above frosts e.g.:-

      Successful cherry production is all about managing risk. Two risk factors that can completely devastate a crop are birds and rain. Rain covers and bird netting are becoming standard items on a lot of cherry orchards, as it can be the difference between staying viable and going broke.

      I admire your fortitude Mike. Amazing that Cherrycorp failed for want of rain covers after cash was diverted to the Apricotcorp purchase and shareholders didn’t cough up. Your experience is almost exact opposite. It was a shame (to say the least) about your apricots but you’ve survived by cutting your losses.

      I wonder is there frost protection for the cherries that only involves minimal incremental cost (other than plastic)? Maybe.just the orchard tractor circulating might provide enough disturbance and a little heat if it had a small 3-point mounted fan run off the PTO (I think orchard tractors have that set-up). But not a high speed fan mind you.

      Update 29/09/2011 shows the flowering and I’m guessing the start of the frost vulnerability comes right after going by ‘Cherries’. Is this what you mean by “late frosts”?

      BTW, those honeys look fantastic. Would Wild Flowers have honey from your pollinating hives brought in to the orchard beginning of October? If so it might be an “Add to Cart” one day around October/November?.

    • Cheers Richard – thanks for the encouragement.

      I could put up rain covers but would have to modify the superstructure to allow run-off. The area is about the size of a rugby field. High winds (Norwest) can wreck stuff like that so it would be risky.

      Regards the frost, a fan on the back of a tractor is a good idea. I have an orchard sprayer with a big fan on it. Might try that out this year. Critical time seems to be 15-Oct through 7-Nov, when the green fruitlets are starting to appear.

    • Richard C (NZ) on 28/07/2012 at 4:13 pm said:

      Caution Mike. I’ve been reading ‘Frost Damage and Management in New Zealand Vineyards’, Trought, Howell and Cherry: Lincoln University and came across this:-

      Radiation frosts form because of cooling of the ground surface (Geiger et al. 1995). Still air is a good insulator and so strong that cooling of air occurs near the soil surface. The air temperature then rises with height through a surface layer. Above this layer, the temperature declines again with height. The warm over cold air is called an inversion layer, and is very stable with little vertical motion or mixing. The depth of the stable layer generally lies between about 5 and 40 m, with 10 to 30 m being most likely.

      Information of the presence of an inversion layer is particularly important if air-mixing systems (helicopters or windmills) are to be used for frost control. If the inversion layer is not present, or out of reach of the mixer, then using an air mixing system can result in increased damage. Water will remain liquid at several degrees below 0oC in a super-cooled state (Johnson and Howell, 1981; Lindow, 1983). However, movement of tissues containing supercooled water can cause ice nucleation, freezing, and tissue death.

      Practical Considerations for Reducing Frost Damage in
      Vineyards, Report to New Zealand Winegrowers: 1999

      In view of the risk of a tractor or sprayer mounted fan moving tissues, it would be better to just rely on the radiator fan of the tractor engine and movement of the tractor to distribute near surface warmth.

      Exhaust gases would also aid warmth distribution near ground especially if the orchard tractor exhaust exits to one side and not directly down the alley. I looked up thermal images of tractors and cant detect exhaust heat in the image I found although there must be because about 60% of engine energy is waste heat and going by the temperature/flow rate graph below:-.

      Farmall A infrared image:-

      Exhaust gas temperature for a 4 cylinder petrol engine about 220 C and 0.04 kg/s (page 6)

      Curiously, a Google Images search for – thermal image tractor – turns up a girl in a bikini.

    • Mike Jowsey on 30/07/2012 at 4:34 pm said:

      Cheers again RC! You’ve been thinking! My fan sprayer would probably mix things up to about 7 metres. Too much of a gamble, I agree. You might be right about just driving around the orchard in my old Ford diesel. The exhaust blows down to one side. It’s worth a crack. Although I have never completely lost a crop of cherries to frost, I am sure yields could be greater if I could mitigate damage. Many thanks for your advice and research. Pop in for a bag of cherries, maybe even a tipple of Cherry Liqueur, if you’re in the South Island over Christmas/New Year.

    • Richard C (NZ) on 09/08/2012 at 6:31 pm said:

      This frost protection thread must invoke this AdSense of page,

      Frost Protection
      Portable frost fan, Tow and Blow grapes, apples, vegetables, berries

      Bottom of page,

      Mobile Wind Turbine
      Wind generator for frost prevention Protect vineyards, orchards, crops

      7m high fan Mike. Doesn’t give any result anecdotes or temperature profiles that I can see though.

  50. Jim McK on 12/07/2012 at 2:02 pm said:

    “Scientists have discovered that plants, trees and soil have abruptly increased their atmospheric carbon dioxide intake in the last 20 years.
    The land biosphere was taking in about one billion tonnes of carbon per year since 1988, equal to about 10 per cent of the global fossil fuel emissions for 2010.
    However, the sudden shift didn’t mean people shouldn’t worry about climate change in the future, Niwa atmospheric scientist Dr Sara Mikaloff-Fletcher said.
    Without nature’s new uptake regime, the amount of carbon in the atmosphere would probably have increased even more rapidly over the last two decades.
    And if the change was temporary, reducing C02 levels in the future might get harder.”

    One billion tones of carbon amounts to about 0.03% of the carbon locked up in plants trees and soil. Perhaps the missing billion went to the oceans – there it would be 0.002% of the carbon. Either way it is clearly below the margin of error for direct measurement.

    Amazing what constitutes a Discovery these days.

    • Hey Jim,
      It could be that the NZ compliant, discreet, easily-managed population is being used as a test-bed for The-Big-CAGW-Comeback. Witness the TV-One broadcast last night, parroting ABC’s propaganda on extreme weather events signaling an undefined but scary ‘tipping point’.

      As to the ‘Discovery’ that nature has a carbon uptake regime, gee, maybe it’s phytoplankton!. In other words, although the science is settled and CAGW is incontrovertible, we have no clue. Margin of error? Don’t make me spit my coffee again!

  51. Jim McK on 12/07/2012 at 8:30 pm said:

    Hi Mike,

    Yes that TV one broadcast is a shocker,

    “Scientist prove for the first time that extreme weather is caused by decades of warming”
    Perhaps a complaint to the broadcasting standards authority might be worth a go.

    But not wanting to be uncharitable I would like wish Dr Sarah, who looks to be younger than my daughter, safe travels to what ever part of the globe she is going to present her paper.

  52. Richard C (NZ) on 14/07/2012 at 2:59 pm said:

    Gareth Renowden thinks this is a “Damn good question”:-

    …how much more extreme weather does it take for governments and individuals to act, or for the oil companies to withdraw from the Arctic, or the media to link global warming with the events now being witnessed around the world? Must the sea boil, the Seine run dry, New York flood and the London Olympics be consumed by fire before countries are shocked into taking concerted action?

    I think it’s a good question too because it’s so zany it defies answer,

    And apparently “The truth is molten” in Warmer World.

  53. Andy on 27/07/2012 at 1:29 pm said:

    “Snow making to increase as climate changes”

    Ski fields will be able to use snow making technology to make up for a loss of natural snow caused by climate change for the rest of this century, a new study suggests.

    Researchers from Niwa and the United States assessed the range of likely effects of climate change on seasonal snow for a selection of New Zealand ski area locations in one study, while a second study considered the country more generally.

    Their findings, published in the journal Theoretical and Applied Climatology, considered two future time periods – 2030 to 2049 and 2080 to 2099 – and compared them to the period 1980 to 1999.

    Something to consider when booking your 2080 ski holidays.

  54. Andy on 30/07/2012 at 12:40 pm said:

    The courtroom war over mining the Denniston and Stockton plateaus continues today at the High Court in Christchurch.

    Environmentalists are appealing against an Environment Court declaration that climate change cannot be considered in resource consent decisions.

    It is being fought by the West Coast Environment Network and Forest & Bird against Australian coalminer Bathurst Resources.

    Early this year, Bathurst and state-owned miner Solid Energy went to the Environment Court for a ruling on the climate change question to clear up future hearings and appeals.

    • Richard C (NZ) on 30/07/2012 at 2:30 pm said:

      From what I can gather, the RMA only covers discharge of GHGs and the effects on climate change by those discharges – not by any subsequent effects from mined resources. Those subsequent effects are what the NZ ETS (supposedly) deals with and whatever is in place in a country where the resources might be exported to.. GHG emissions by the actual mining operation would be minimal.

      You can search the Act with “climate change” here:-

      BTW, I’ve had my head in Resource Efficiency in New Zealand and how the MfE is developing the concept via Boffa Miskell

      Final report here:-

      Fine, except for “greenhouse gas emissions” in CO2e. A redundant measure and efficiency ratio IMO.

    • Andy on 30/07/2012 at 3:14 pm said:

      NZ coal from Denniston is primarily used for steel manufacture. If the environmentalists are so concerned they should be boycotting the import of steel products.

      E.g cars, washing machines, bicycles, nuts, bolts, wind turbine towers, computers, steel building joists, trains, etc

      You know it makes sense

    • Richard C (NZ) on 30/07/2012 at 3:56 pm said:

      They should add the ArcelorMittal Orbit Tower at the London Olympics (£15 ticket price) to that list

      “The Denniston Plateau coal sought by Bathurst is the premium high-quality coking coal which is a key ingredient for steel mills, much sought-after by the developing economies of China, India and other Asian countries”

    • Richard C (NZ) on 04/08/2012 at 8:22 pm said:

      A similar case to the Denniston challenge has just been dismissed in the US but note the difference to NZ’s RMA considerations:-
      Judge dismisses lawsuit over Wyoming coal leases

      A federal judge has dismissed a legal challenge from environmental groups that sought to block federal coal leases in Wyoming’s Powder River Basin on the grounds that burning the coal would contribute to global warming.

      John Horning, executive director of WildEarth Guardians in Santa Fe, N.M., said his group is disappointed with Kollar-Kotelly’s ruling and plans to appeal.

      “We’re especially disappointed given that this ruling never gets to the real merits. We’ve been bounced on standing,” Horning said. “And it’s, I think, a pretty cynical view of the impacts of climate change to dismiss one’s standing because the impacts are so diffuse. We’re all affected by climate change.”

      Horning said his group has focused on the Powder River Basin because of the scale of mining and coal production there. Wyoming is the nation’s leading coal-producing state and most of its production comes from that area.

      Marion Loomis, executive director of the Wyoming Mining Association, said Thursday he’s thankful the judge dismissed the suits. His group is a member of the National Mining Association, which intervened as a defendant.

      “The Department of Interior has to follow their rules and laws that are on the books,” Loomis said. “I don’t think there’s anything on the department’s laws, rules or regulations that says they have to take into account any climate change. Until that happens, they shouldn’t be taking that into consideration in their environmental reviews.”
      Denniston may set a precedent if USA implements RMA-type climate change considerations.

  55. Doug Proctor on 21/08/2012 at 1:21 pm said:

    Hi, Richard,

    I seem to recall that NIWA left the Court with a Adverse Inference situation. Is that still happening?

  56. Andy on 21/08/2012 at 1:35 pm said:

    New York philanthropist and billionaire Julian Robertson has donated $5.3 million to establish a new institute in New Zealand for research on the Antarctic and Southern Ocean’s role in climate change.

    The New Zealand Antarctic Research Institute was launched by Prime Minister John Key last night at Premier House.

    It will operate as a public-private partnership.

    The institute will be closely aligned to the crown entity Antarctic New Zealand and its chairman, Rob Fenwick, will chair the institute as well.

    Mr Fenwick said he expected Government projects through the Crown research institute and universities would be strengthened by collaboration with Antarctic Research Institute projects.

    “The international science community believes what happens on the Antarctic continent over the next 50 years will be critical in predicting the human impacts of climate change.”

  57. Andy on 27/08/2012 at 9:28 pm said:

    Bathurst win their appeal against Forest and Bid to mine coal at Denniston, without “climate change” appearing in the considerations

  58. Andy on 29/08/2012 at 10:30 pm said:

    Tim Groser may get job at WTO

    Nice work mate.

    Send us a postcard?

  59. Andy on 25/10/2012 at 8:49 am said:

    Power Shift 2012 is coming to Auckland!

    Join the biggest youth climate summit New Zealand has ever seen! Power Shift will be part conference, part festival, part workshop and part celebration of the power of hundreds of young people to change the world. Are you in?
    Manaaki whenua, manaaki tangata, haere whakamua

    7-9 Dec 2012

    Key speakers include

    Auckland mayor the Honourable Len Brown
    Actress and Activist Lucy Lawless
    Founder of Bill McKibben (via video conference)
    Dunedin City Council’s youngest councillor Jinty MacTavish
    Young 350 Pacific organizer from Samoa Brianna Fruean
    Young Pacific climate change activist from the Soloman Islands Christina Ora, who famously told world leaders “you have negotiated all my life, you cant tell me you need more time”
    Director of Carbon Partnership and award winning (ex-) lecturer from Victoria University Sean Weaver
    Lawyer and activist from Te Whanau a Apanui Dayle Takitimu
    Energy Efficiency and Conservation Agency CEO Mike Underhill
    Inspiring members of the Power Shift crew

    Plus some “old codgers” heckling from the back, perhaps?

  60. Richard C (NZ) on 09/12/2012 at 9:06 am said:

    Global warming to blame for Hobsonville twister?

    Scientists are warning that weather events like the devastating tornado that struck Auckland yesterday may be a symptom of global warming.

    I suppose it was inevitable that a link would be made however tenuous (“like”, “may”).

    • If they want to stick to this story then maybe we should apply for money from the US, under this new fund just agreed at Doha

      COP 18 voted just minutes ago to create a “Doha Climate Gateway” and agreed to a second commitment period for the Kyoto protocol. The U.S. remains out of the protocol, now joined by Russia, Japan and Canada.

      COP 18 inserted a “Loss & Damage Mechanism” into the final text which would require developed countries like the U.S. to pay poor nations for climate damages supposedly resulting from extreme weather events.

  61. Peter Whitmore: Immediate action needed to reduce carbon emissions

    Getting our emissions down to 1990 levels is only the first small step in what we need to achieve. Internationally targets as high as an 80 per cent reduction on 1990 emissions by 2050 have been put forward. Our Government has already raised the possibility of agreeing to targets of 10 to 20 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020 (subject to a raft of conditions) and of 50 per cent below by 2050.


    Meanwhile, former United Nations climate chief Yvo de Boer recently said he believes the European Union needs to quickly boost its carbon price to about €150 ($240) a tonne if it is to meet its objective of reducing emissions to 80 per cent below 1990 levels by 2050. Compared to this, present New Zealand pricing seems to be in make-believe land.

    The only thing in make-believe land is this article. A carbon price of $240 and emissions NZ reduced by 10 to 20 percent of 1990 levels within the next 7 years.

    What is this guy smoking? According to his bio, he has a background in engineering and economics.

  62. Richard C (NZ) on 08/02/2013 at 9:18 am said:

    $1.6m for international climate science initiative

    The Ministry for Primary Industries has announced the funding and says the money will go towards agricultural greenhouse gas research.

    New Zealand’s scientists have until 27 March to submit research ideas. However, in order for their projects to be funded they will need to be collaborating with scientists from at least two other nations.

    The ministry says the inter-governmental initiative is all about breaking down the barriers of climate science by getting scientists from different countries working together.

    It says the challenge of growing more food, and developing more climate-resilient food systems, without growing greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture requires a global strategic approach.

    Twenty-one European countries, as well as New Zealand, Canada and the United States, are members of the joint science initiative.$1-point-6m-for-international-climate-science-initiative

  63. Russel Norman overjoyed at Solid Energy failure

    Green Party co-leader Dr Russel Norman said today that Solid Energy’s troubles were “the best possible result under the circumstances.”

    “As a Green Party, we’ve been trying to put an end to mining, and especially coal mining for as long as we’ve been in existence.”

    “Coal is one of the most polluting energy sources in use, so to have it become uneconomical to extract is really a gift for not just the Greens, but all the peoples and tamariki of Aotearoa”.

    Asked about the loss of jobs on the West Coast, Dr. Norman said: ”There is no job crisis on the West Coast. Only an Imagination Crisis. They are sitting on some of the most unspoiled parts of the country, and it is time they start thinking sustainable eco tourism, organic farming and revitalising the Arts such as sculpture, painting and poetry.”

    Dr. Norman said he’d like to congratulate the Government for a job well done, and challenged John Key to continue economic policies that would result in other planet destroying industries, such as dairy farming, to fail also.

    The comments are a laugh

    • Note that this is a spoof article, but it is so close to the truth it hurts

    • Mike Jowsey on 27/02/2013 at 5:06 pm said:

      Thanks Andy! Cheered me up reading those comments. And this one is just as good, about the supreme court dismissing the Maori case against state asset sales.

    • Mike – funny seeing Martyn “Bomber” Bradbury play a cameo role in that Twitter exchange

      I don’t know if you ever watched “Citizen A” on Stratos, but it was a class act with Bomber introducing WhaleOil as a “Far Right Storm Blogger”, and then Cam cozied up to all the lefties on the panel and completely ignored Bomber. It was priceless TV

      This is a classic spoof too.

      “Martyn Bradbury Realty”.
      “Consistently in the top 100% of agents”

  64. Andy on 12/03/2013 at 9:27 pm said:

    Climate change in coal consents?

    The Supreme Court is being asked to determine whether climate change should be considered when coal mining companies apply for resource consent. It comes after both the Environment Court and the High Court ruled that climate change isn’t part of coal mining consents.
    Everyone involved in the argument accepts coal is a pollutant that contributes to climate change. What’s in dispute is whether Parliament intended climate change to be ignored when it comes to coal mining under the Resource Management Act.
    “It is bizarre if New Zealand’s foremost environmental statute cannot consider the most serious environmental threat to humanity and to the planet,” says West Coast Environment Network member Jeanette Fitzsimons.

    Read more:

  65. English leading debate on Climate Change
    Matthew Hooton

    (This will get the warmistas choking on their organic muesli )

    Alarmist prophecies

    Mr English’s comments were in the context of climate change.

    Regular readers will know I am one who doubts the more alarmist prophecies.

    In my view, climate change has a touch of the Salem witch trials. Whatever happens is presented as evidence for the hypothesis.

    Moreover, it is too easy to see how the issue could suffer from inflation. If Professor A has a model suggesting sea-level rises of, say, 2 metres, Professor B with a model suggesting only 1.8 metres is not going to get any media attention.

    It’s Professor C with a new 2.2 metre forecast who will get the attention of the university’s PR department and wind up being interviewed on some deeply earnest programme on PBS, MSNBC or Radio NZ.

    Nevertheless, I accept I am in the minority. A majority of those who style themselves as climate scientists believe the world is warming – except for where climate change is making it colder – and the seas are rising.

    A majority of governments formally agree – unsurprisingly given any poll will agree too.

    The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is considered the authority, although anyone who bothers to read what it says will learn it forecasts far more modest and manageable temperature and sea-level rises than those touted by multinational climate-change alarmists such as Greenpeace.

    • Richard C (NZ) on 16/03/2013 at 6:33 pm said:

      Poor Simon there at #9, doing his whack-the-standstill best.

  66. James Renwick on Q&A

    Lack of govt leadership on climate change – Renwick

    One of the country’s leading climate scientists, Dr James Renwick, has criticised the government for a lack of leadership on adaptation around climate change.

    Dr Renwick told TVNZ’s Q+A programme that farmers need prepare for a drier climate in future, adding: “I think the government does have policy around adaptation, but I think, yeah, there could be more political leadership on this issue.”

    He also said that New Zealand needed to opt f or more sustainability, lower intensity and lower stocking rates in order to cope with the change in weather patterns. “The present intensification of farming and dairying, in particular, doesn’t look very sustainable, given the way the climate’s likely to change.”

    Dr Renwick told the programme that global warming was the only explanation for the drought, saying the average around which temperatures vary is changing and will be hotter over time.

    “So what we call a very warm year now will be a cold year in 50 or 60 years’ time. What we’d call a dry summer now will be getting closer to the normal summer in another 50 to 100 years’ time.”

    [Emphasis added – AS]

    • Richard C (NZ) on 18/03/2013 at 10:46 am said:

      Uses “yeah” a lot – like a yobbo in the pub. or a stoned hippie.

      I wonder what “the only explanation” for the rain is?

    • Stoned hippy? That would explain the shirt

    • Richard C (NZ) on 18/03/2013 at 12:05 pm said:

      The shirt does rule out pub yobbo and delinquent teenager. Not really hippie either. Maybe we’re talking 70s retro guy (favs: music Hot August Night, film Heat).

  67. Richard C (NZ) on 18/03/2013 at 11:56 am said:

    Your future weather: A daunting forecast

    Dr James Renwick

    “The AR5 is hugely significant for New Zealanders, and for all nations – it is the one best resource for our present understanding of climate change.”

    He described climate change as the biggest issue facing humanity, with political and social responses urgently required.

    Professor David Frame

    Professor Frame saw the international post-2020 climate change regime as being “absolutely fundamental” to tackling the problem.

    “Climate policy has to mature, and fast. Climate change is a long-term issue, so we should plan for a sustained, global response over several decades.”

    “Given that climate policies are only effective if they can command electoral support, I think it’s important that climate initiatives become a mainstream part of other policies, rather than as radical social experiments.”

    Dr Simon Lamb

    “Temperature records show that this is one of the fastest warming places on the planet, but these results have been contested by some climate sceptics.

    “Yet, you only have to talk to the local inhabits – for example, the Sami people of northern Norway – to realise that they know it is warming rapidly from their own observations.”

    # # #

    All oblivious to any other scenario.

  68. Richard C (NZ) on 20/03/2013 at 10:30 am said:

    Gareth Renowden displaying total iincomprehension of the actual processes of planetary enthalpy and thermal inertia:-

    From: “The Other Side Of The Story” – [They got that right at least]

    “The bad news is that there’s a lag built in to the system. It will take around 30 years to see temperatures stabilise, because the oceans have to catch up with the warming effect of all the extra greenhouse gases. In other words, continued warming cannot be avoided.”

    Yes there’s a lag built in to the system but not the one Gareth thinks, he’s about 40 to 50 years too late. Temperatures have already stabilised over the 21st century, contrary to Gareth’s other-worldly perspective, because they lagged late 1980s solar change by 8 – 20 yrs via the solar => ocean heat sink => atmosphere/space process,

    So paraphrasing for the real world:-

    “The [good (but not really)] news is that there’s a lag built in to the system. It [took] around [14] years to see temperatures stabilise, because the oceans have to catch up with the warming effect of [Grand Maximum solar levels]. In other words, continued warming cannot [now continue].”

    These guys are just looking more and more loopy every day now.

    • I’m guessing that me responding in comments there won’t be welcomed.
      Don’t know why; it’s just a hunch I have

    • Richard C (NZ) on 20/03/2013 at 11:00 am said:

      I’ve submitted a comment:-

      richardcfromnz says:
      Your comment is awaiting moderation.
      March 20, 2013 at 10:56 am

      Paraphrasing for the real world:-

      “The [good] news is that there’s a lag built in to the system. It [took] around [14] years to see temperatures stabilise, because the oceans have to catch up with the warming effect of [Grand Maximum solar levels]. In other words, continued warming cannot [now continue].”

    • Good luck with that. The one comment so far has this nugget

      We are headed into completely unknown territory as far as climate goes. But a pragmatic assessment puts the Earth at largely uninhabitable some time between 2040 and 2080.

      Cheerful lot aren’t they?

      EDIT – I see your comment is through. Bring on the trolls.

  69. Richard C (NZ) on 31/03/2013 at 5:23 pm said:

    Gluckman appears to letting climate change slip quietly into oblivion. It’s at the bottom of the list of “issues” and not one of his blog posts back to October 20, 2011 addresses “the greatest moral issue of our time” from what I can see.

    There’s been no update to the ‘Climate change’ page since Thursday, 13 August 2009.

  70. Richard C (NZ) on 20/04/2013 at 4:00 pm said:

    Just to highlight mind-numbed denial of the existence of certain natural phenomena by the Hot Topic eco-fascist faithful (e.g. bill in particular):-

    ‘Plan to drill into marine volcano’

    It reads like something out of science fiction: an active underwater volcano, a team of international experts – and a giant drill.

    To scientists, the Brothers Volcano represents the world’s best opportunity to understand how magmatic hydrothermal systems work within submarine volcanos.

    The volcano, 400km northeast of White Island, is perhaps the best mapped and understood submarine volcano known to science.

    Three kilometres wide and with a highest peak 1.2km below sea level, Brothers is the most hydrothermally active of all the volcanoes along the Kermadec Arc – itself arguably the most active chain of submarine volcanoes in the world.

    It continually throws up dark, metal-rich plumes of dissolved minerals which, when hitting cold seawater, precipitate out and gather on the sea floor.

    As this reaction occurs it can also build “chimneys” rich in metals above the vents.

    One of two vent fields that sharply contrast in their chemistry is responsible for large mineral deposits of copper and gold.

    By drilling into the volcano, scientists hope to unlock the secrets of its magma chamber, test computer models of its sea floor hydro-thermal plumbing, find out about the transport of precious metals inside the volcano, and assess diversity of microbial life within the volcano.

    # # #

    In bill’s mind, the undersea Brothers Volcano does not actually exist.

    • ‘Plan to drill into marine volcano’

      This is a quote, but what is the reference, please? Ah, I see, the reference comes last. Then, your comments follow “# # #”. Confusing.

  71. Some great events coming your way for the climate enthusiasts:

    NZ Climate Change Conference, June 4-5 Palmerston North

    Kindly sponsored by the NZ taxpayer (hey, thanks for the money guys!)

    Plus (wait there’s more!) a one day workshop organised by the Orthodox Church of Modern Day Warmists

    I have my registration already, for the latter, see here:

  72. Rodney Hide in the NBR

    “Faith, not facts, drive global warming”

    Has a good dig at Renwick

  73. Andy on 04/06/2013 at 11:57 am said:

    MRP windfarm consent finally granted

    Mighty River Power today announced its been granted a final resource consent to build a wind farm near Dannevirke, but said it won’t start building for at least three years.

    The 310 megawatt farm, which consists of 53 turbines in the Puketoi Range, originally got consent last year, but remained subject to appeal. All three appellant submissions have since been withdrawn.

    In conjunction with the Turitea site near Palmerston North, it gives Mighty River Power the option for up to 490Mw of wind capacity.

    However, in its update to the market, the recently listed firm said it was unlikely to start any new generation projects in the next three to five years, mostly due to an over-construction of gas, wind and geothermal power stations over the past decade.

  74. Andy on 06/06/2013 at 8:17 pm said:

    The NZ Green Party one day conference on climate change that occurred today will be streamed here for those interested

    • Andy on 09/06/2013 at 11:47 am said:

      Particularly this bit

      It points to Britain’s target of a 34 percent cut by 2020 and 80 percent by 2050. Rather than the current signalled target of a 50 percent cut from 1990 levels by 2050, New Zealand should target a 90 percent cut, the paper says.

  75. Andy on 27/06/2013 at 2:48 pm said:

    “Scientist warns of more extreme flood events”

    Climate change could be putting the planet on a path to an era not seen for 3 million years, a New Zealand scientist has warned.

    Professor Tim Naish, director of Victoria University’s Antarctic Research Centre, said sea levels in 2100 could be alarmingly higher than today if carbon emissions continue at their present rate.

    Today, atmospheric CO2 has just reached 400 parts per million due to human emission, and the last time the planet experienced such levels was 3 million to 5 million years ago, during the Pliocene era, when the climate was 3°C warmer.

    At this point in time, both the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and parts of the East Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets had melted and sea levels were at least 10m higher.

    “Some are arguing that we are already committing our atmosphere and our climate to a time that we haven’t seen for three million years, which saw the loss of those ice sheets,” said Professor Naish, speaking in Hobart at the first joint conference between Antarctica New Zealand and the Australian Antarctic Division.


  76. Mike Jowsey on 28/06/2013 at 12:29 am said:

    OMG! It could be, with a 95% certitude, that the Planet, according to our trillion-dollar computer models, has reached an academic tipping point, and IT’S WORSE THAN WE THOUGHT.

    (btw, send more money NOW)

  77. Andy on 06/07/2013 at 2:16 pm said:

    A state-owned electricity company on Thursday received the go-ahead to build what could be New Zealand’s largest wind farm just north of the capital, Wellington.

    A statement from Genesis Energy said it had no immediate plans to start construction after the country’s Environment Court confirmed resource consents for 286 turbines with a potential total generating capacity of 860 megawatts.

    Genesis Energy chief executive Albert Brantley said in the statement that sustainable energy options of the scale of the proposed Castle Hill Wind Farm were “essential for the future of New Zealand’s energy generation.”

    “These consents are about being prepared for the future. They will provide Genesis Energy the ability to respond to the changing needs of New Zealanders, our customers, when we need to,” Brantley said.

    Energy and Resources Minister Simon Bridges welcomed the Environment Court decision, saying the wind farm could power around 370,000 homes.

    “This is a major boost to our continued confidence in renewables. It shows that companies are clearly willing to invest in progressing cost-effective options to meet New Zealand’s future electricity needs,” Bridges said in a statement.

    Genesis Energy had entered the project without any form of subsidy support from the government, he said.

    The project would bring the total amount of consented renewable electricity generation capacity throughout New Zealand to well over 4,000 megawatts, enough to meet almost 30 years of demand.

    “It is projects like this that ensure we are well on our way to achieving our 90 percent renewable electricity target by 2025. I am confident that the majority of electricity generating capacity to be built over coming years will be renewable,” Bridges said.

  78. Andy on 08/07/2013 at 11:30 am said:

    $10m freeze on global warming

    The Government has proposed cutting $10 million in funding for climate change research in a move described as disheartening for New Zealand’s highly capable climate scientists.

    Treasury documents showed that Primary Industries Minister Nathan Guy has recommended scaling back funding for Climate Change Research Grants by $2 million in the next financial year, $3.75 million in 2014/15 and $4.25 million in 2015/16.

    This would reduce the pool of funding from nearly $10 million a year to $4.5 million a year by 2016.

  79. Richard C (NZ) on 30/07/2013 at 8:03 pm said:

    ‘Hamilton engineer helps design frost stopper’


    A new machine developed in part by a Hamilton engineer could solve a multimillion-dollar problem for New Zealand’s horticulture and viticulture industry.

    Called the Heat Ranger, it pushes warm air onto crops to prevent frost damage.

    Hamilton engineer Fred Phillips helped design the machine after the concept was developed by Canterbury farmer Bruce Koller.

    The blackcurrant grower had suffered three seasons of crippling, out-of-season frosts and was desperate for a solution.


    “He was unsure what the Heat Ranger would retail for, but it would be at least six figures.”

    • Mike Jowsey on 31/07/2013 at 6:29 pm said:

      With cooler climate predictions becoming more frequent, and with the late frosts last year (7-Nov), this sort of machinery is much needed. Would be ideal for my cherries, but alas, six figures counts me out. Unless I get that cheque from big oil…..

    • Richard C (NZ) on 31/07/2013 at 7:15 pm said:

      >”Would be ideal for my cherries”

      At a wind speed of 150kmh, 120m range, and discharge height about 4m (going by photo), I got the impression that the unit would be used across (over) several rows at a time in both directions for blueberries say. But I didn’t think that setup would be ideal for cherries, aren’t they about that height? If so the unit would just be blasting the nearest trees rather than flowing past.

      Wouldn’t the discharge height need to be near ground level for the air to be pushed through (under) several cherry tree rows (imagine the unit upside down for that)?

      I’m ignoring cost of course.

    • Mike Jowsey on 31/07/2013 at 7:53 pm said:

      You might be right. Tree canopy is 5 metres. Would like to see it in action.

      (Gotta love that LPG releasing its CO2 and causing global warming all at once!)

    • Andy on 01/08/2013 at 12:14 pm said:

      That will require a detailed read over the next few days

      It’s not all bad though.
      e.g Page 14

      Increased yield from rising CO2 fertilisation is likely
      to benefit the forestry industry by 2040 and beyond,
      by increasing growth rates of radiata pine.

      Gosh, that old “denier canard” CO2 = plant food getting trotted out again

    • Andy on 01/08/2013 at 12:25 pm said:

      The summary suggests we need “further research”, several times, in fact

      Sort of a sales pitch, I would say

    • Magoo on 01/08/2013 at 12:44 pm said:

      The part on climate sensitivity seems very suspect – ‘The weight of the evidence, however, continues to support the range of estimates provided by the IPCC in its first to fourth assessments. Recent estimates do not significantly affect conclusions on the likely future trajectory for the planet and the likely broad time scale of expected changes, given the magnitude of the challenge of emissions reduction.’

    • Andy on 01/08/2013 at 2:37 pm said:

      This deserves a thorough fisking.

      I think Bishop Hill have run a number of posts on this topic recently. Recent estimates of climate sensitivity are lower than the IPCC ones. Recent studies use empirical data to estimate TCS at around 1.3 degrees C and ECS at or below 2 degrees C.

      However, the “bigger picture” is that we have models and paleoclimatic studies.

      The latter have a lot of uncertainty, and are thus poorly constrained. The former are, well, models

    • Andy on 01/08/2013 at 2:57 pm said:

      The section on Climate Sensitivity is just waffle.
      This is the central question to the whole issue, and they wave it away and refer to “discussions in the lay press”

    • Richard C (NZ) on 01/08/2013 at 3:44 pm said:

      The section on Climate Sensitivity is pathetic.

      CS feeds into the economic models (IAMs) as an input parameter so it is hugely influential (let alone purely climatic projections and the contention arising). Thorough fisking certainly reqd.

      >”The weight of the evidence, however, continues to support the range of estimates provided by the IPCC in its first to fourth assessments”.

      I think that should read “the weight of opinion of our climate scientist advisers” because the evidence offers no such support that I can see.

    • Andy on 01/08/2013 at 4:11 pm said:

      “”The weight of the evidence, however, continues to support the range of estimates provided by the IPCC in its first to fourth assessments”

      What they seem to imply is that measurements of climate sensitivity, the central part of the whole climate change issue, hasn’t progressed since the FAR was published in 1990.

      So in 23 years of research, millions of dollars of funding, we have no more to say about this topic than a paragraph of weasel words.

      Oh really!

    • Richard C (NZ) on 01/08/2013 at 4:31 pm said:

      >”CS feeds into the economic models (IAMs) as an input parameter so it is hugely influential”

      This is a major issue in the US in respect to the Social Costs of Carbon (SCC) e.g (my bolding).

      ‘A Closer Look at the Government’s Determination of the Social Costs of Carbon’

      By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger


      Recently, the Interagency Working Group reconvened and made good on its promise to update their 2010 findings. In doing so, they increased their estimate of the SCC by about 40 percent.

      Increased!? How on earth, you may wonder, could they have increased their SCC estimates since 2010 when paper after scientific paper shows that the equilibrium climate sensitivity—that is, how much global warming will result from a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration—is much lower than most pre-2010 determinations? The Interagency Working Group even recognizes that the climate sensitivity “is a key input parameter” to their SCC models.

      Simple: The updated SCC calculations are made without “revisit[ing] other assumptions with regard to the discount rate, reference case socioeconomic and emission scenarios, or equilibrium climate sensitivity [emphasis added].

      How convenient is that? The updated SCC, which the White House requires to be used in the cost/benefit analyses of new regulations, completely ignores progress made in the basic science of climate change—progress which suggests that the future impacts from climate change are overestimated by some 50 percent.

      And if failing to keep up with the science of a “key input parameter” to their calculation isn’t enough, the Interagency Working Groups makes several other egregious decisions in arriving at their SCC determination.


      Also see the ‘Economics’ Open Thread on SCC here:

      New Zealand has not yet seen what a radical difference this “key input parameter” (CS) makes to public policy as it is having in the US, But we are seeing the failure to keep up with the science of it so heaven help us if/when the economists start using it here in NZ as handed down by Gluckman to come up with the NZ equivalent of SCC (perish the thought).

    • Richard C (NZ) on 01/08/2013 at 3:22 pm said:

      Cheers Magoo.

      >[Foreword, page 1] “It will be necessary for New Zealand to address a number of challenges that have both a scientific and value component. These include:…………• What are the costs and benefits of adaptation or mitigation compared with other priorities?”

      The “other” Andy asked about this wrt a NZ equivalent of Monckton’s cost/benefit in that thread. Gluckman has neglected to point out that cost/benefit analysis is not just adaption/mitigation compared to other priorities but that it should also be compared to do-nothing-until-needed which Monckton calculates as around 50x less expensive than adaption/mitigation.

      21st century models vs observations failure doesn’t get a mention on page 7, “reasonable agreement” apparently:

      >”The best available comparisons between climate models suggest that models respond to the historical combination of natural and anthropogenic forcings in reasonable agreement with observations….”

      I wonder if Gluckman knows this evidence (model obs/hotspot failure) is being contested in the US Supreme Court (SLF EPA Endangerment Finding petition)?

      “Pause/hiatus” on page 5:

      >”The reported recent ‘hiatus’ in the rate of rise of temperature does not signal that climate
      change has ‘stopped’ or is no longer a concern.”

      But the fact is that atmospheric warming has stopped Sir Peter (and what reason is there for it to resume exactly?) and because it’s the major component of what people perceive as “climate” i.e. no climate change for some time now, that has to be a signal that warming is not the concern it was made out to be. And if the hiatus continues or – shock – turns to cooling, climate change (the warming type) will definitely not be a concern.

      >”This is consistent with model simulations, in which decades of no change, or even cooling, can be expected despite the longterm trend of increasing global temperatures”

      “Cooling” expected? But only a couple of models mimiced the pause THIS last decade and ONLY at near-surface, the rest weren’t in cooee at near-surface and none at mid-trop and none exhibited cooling anywhere. And again the obs trend (one of 3 “lines of evidence”) is subject to the above US Supreme Court petition.

      >”The current ‘pause’ in the overall trend is thought to be partly a response to natural variability including a temporary decline in the amount of energy received from the sun, which has naturally cycled towards a relatively strong solar minimum in 2009.”

      “temporary decline” ??? – Wrong Sir Peter, the decline is continuing with SC24 maximum in 2013 resembling SC5 in the Dalton Minimum around 1800. Minor impacts might be a little more evident in a years time (there’s already cooling since 2002/3) but the major impact of this will not be evident until over a decade due to thermal inertial lag. This would be at least early 1900s conditions prior to 1930 if the progression continues.

      All New Zealand, page 3:

      >The midrange of projections is an average temperature increase of 0.9°C by 2040″

      27 yrs for a 0.9°C rise to occur. Doubtful given ENSO-neutral 2012 at 12.5°C is about the same as it was 50 years ago.

      As Andy observes “will require a detailed read” but just a cursory glance tells me Gluckman is out of touch. I suspect that is because he “has been assisted by some of New Zealand’s leading climate scientists in preparing this report”.

    • Richard C (NZ) on 04/08/2013 at 2:45 pm said:

      Richard C2 August 4, 2013 at 1:39 pm

      Your comment is awaiting moderation.

      0.9 C by 2040?

      That requires 0.33 C/decade starting right now for 13.4 C in 27 yrs time. Given ENSO-neutral NZ temperature has been stuck on the 2012 12.5 C level for about the last 50 yrs that appears highly improbable.

      Maybe the PMs Chief Scientific Adviser should get some better advice than what he was given.

    • Andy on 04/08/2013 at 9:33 pm said:

      Macros response to your comment is pretty gobsmacking. Is he serious?

    • Richard C (NZ) on 05/08/2013 at 10:29 am said:

      Might reveal something of his mindset but I certainly didn’t see that coming. My response:

      “Macro, see Table 1: Summary of projected changes (increases are relative to the 1980-2000 average)

      1980-2000 average is 12.56 C plus 0.9 is 13.46. 2001-2012 average is 12.68 but we are starting from ENSO-neutral 2012 at 12.5 so that’s 0.96 by 2040 starting this year. Actually 0.35 C/decade.

      I take it by your “0.033 degrees per decade” that you also find 0.35 C/decade highly improbable?”

  80. Mike Jowsey on 05/09/2013 at 10:36 am said:

    There was a piece on TV One news last night about rising sea levels threatening low-lying Pacific nations. John Key is at a summit in the Marshal Islands and has pledged $5m taxpayer dollars to building – wait for it – water storage systems as protection against drought. Water water everywhere, but not a drop to drink!

    Anyhow, the reporter ended the piece with the exciting news that a major declaration would be made tomorrow regarding climate change which would really bring the issue to the fore worldwide. Let’s hope the declaration would be something like “Global Warming not happening – crisis over”. Somehow, I doubt it – too many jobs on the line.

    • Mike Jowsey on 05/09/2013 at 11:15 am said:

      Here’s the link to the news program –

      Article starts at 15:32. Barbara Dreaver gets pretty intense, with no data to back up her claims of more intense cyclones etc. However, it is noteworthy that her prediction of An Important Declaration at the article’s end has been cropped out. Hmmm? Intrigue!

    • Andy on 05/09/2013 at 12:06 pm said:

      Dreaver makes this claim:

      “Scientists say that global warming is causing weather patterns in the area to become more intense, leading to devastating cyclones and tsunamis”


    • Mike Jowsey on 05/09/2013 at 12:21 pm said:

      Ha! I missed that. Lmao. What an airhead.

    • Mike Jowsey on 05/09/2013 at 12:28 pm said:

      WUWT mentions the TVNZ article, noting the claim regarding An Important Declaration (which has been cropped from TVNZ-on-demand).

    • Andy on 05/09/2013 at 1:11 pm said:

      An Important Declaration

      It might be a vote of thanks for the generous sponsorship of Fijian Airways for the conference, with a nod to the matching “gay blue shirts” that John Key and the other delegates are all wearing?

    • Andy on 06/09/2013 at 9:18 am said:

      It’s a done deal, we have signed, as Ms Drivel writes

      ” New Zealand has signed a declaration on climate change along with other Pacific leaders in a bid to gain access to international funding.”

    • Andy on 06/09/2013 at 7:13 pm said:

      Prime Minister John Key has welcomed the climate change focus of the Pacific Islands Forum, and restated New Zealand’s commitment to working with its Pacific neighbours to help them build more climate-resilient, sustainable economies.

      “Climate change is a concern for Pacific countries and New Zealand is firmly committed to helping its closest neighbours adapt to and mitigate its impacts,” Mr Key says.

      “Our total climate-related support will be more than $80 million over the next three years, including the $65 million for renewable energy initiatives, as announced at the Pacific Energy Summit in March.

      “On top of that, our support will focus on areas like developing water infrastructure, and investing in clean and efficient energy generation. This will have positive environmental impacts, but it will also help Pacific countries develop more robust economies by reducing their reliance on expensive imported diesel.

      “Over the past three years, we have invested $48 million in our region to address climate change through practical initiatives to help communities and infrastructure be better prepared for extreme weather-related events,” Mr Key says.

      “We’ve built cyclone shelters in the Northern Cooks, supported rainwater harvesting in Kiribati, Tokelau and Tuvalu, and funded a monthly climate forecasting bulletin for all Pacific countries.

      “We have already achieved great results working with Pacific governments on renewable energy. For example, our support has allowed Tokelau to now generate 90 per cent of its electricity from solar power, and we have also backed the Maama Mai solar facility in Tonga, one of the largest in the Pacific.”

      Mr Key says New Zealand continues to work closely with international partners to improve the Pacific’s access to climate finance, including from the private sector.
      “At home and abroad, the Government is doing its fair share to address global climate change. We have set a target to reduce our emissions to 5 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020. This target is ambitious and goes beyond what we committed to under the first stage of the Kyoto Protocol.

      “We have also launched the Global Research Alliance, and have committed $45 million to research ways to grow more food without growing greenhouse gas emissions.

      Mr Key is in the Marshall Islands for the 44th Pacific Islands Forum. He returns to New Zealand on Friday

    • Andy on 05/09/2013 at 1:36 pm said:

      On this topic, the hand-wringers are out in force at TDB

    • Mike Jowsey on 05/09/2013 at 2:23 pm said:

      Oh it’s our neighbourhood alarmist, Gareth, with the usual emotional tripe. E.G. “…. certain to lumber them with a climate denier as prime minister, it falls to John Key to act on our neighbour’s life and death struggle.” yawn…. It’s worse than we thought. I left him a wee missive.

    • Andy on 05/09/2013 at 3:13 pm said:

      and I see you have been duly chastised Mike, for your tasteless and demeaning comments about those poor people in the Pacific that will drown as a result of our evil consumer lifestyles that we refuse to change.
      (Sent from my iPad)

    • Mike Jowsey on 05/09/2013 at 3:13 pm said:

      Gareth accused you Andy of straying off-topic. LOL. I responded to his obvious double-standard:

    • Andy on 05/09/2013 at 3:41 pm said:

      Good to see someone is sticking up for me.
      I was responding to this statement, as you noticed.

      A move by Contact Energy to back out of a windfarm on the Waikato’s west coast has blown away hundreds of potential jobs in a move described as another disappointment to a region buffeted by lay-offs.

      Some of my “misinfomation” comes from sources such as these

      “In view of flat electricity demand, current overcapacity in electricity generation in New Zealand and regulatory uncertainty in the New Zealand electricity market, developing the Hauauru ma raki wind farm has become uneconomic in the medium term.”

      In other words, if an incoming Labour/Green government ramps up the ETS and power prices go through the roof, wind energy may become economic in NZ, although it won’t add any value as it doesn’t add any capacity to the grid; it merely displaces other energy when the wind blows.

    • Andy on 05/09/2013 at 3:50 pm said:

      Go for the wine offer Mike!

  81. Andy on 14/09/2013 at 5:29 pm said:

    Another step towards a healthier climate

    Doctors are praising the Biodiversity Defence Society’s legal steps yesterday to stop another new coal mine. The Biodiversity Defence Society filed declaration proceedings with the Environment Court on Wednesday, arguing that Solid Energy no longer holds resource consents for its Cypress Mine. The resource consents for the mine – gained in 2005 – were due to expire at the end of 2012 if mining activity had not begun. Seven years later only a road has been built.

    Dr Russell Tregonning from OraTaiao: The New Zealand Climate and Health Council, says, ‘For the sake of our health, we need to overcome our addiction to fossil fuels, and that includes not opening new coal mines. Every tonne of carbon dioxide we put into the atmosphere makes our future that much harder to manage.’

    More straightjackets please nurse

  82. Mike Jowsey on 20/09/2013 at 2:35 pm said:


    Climate Realists- special notice, special opportunity to make your views known.

    Greetings Climate Realists,

    Thanks to the Psychology Department at Victoria University, we all have the opportunity to make our views on climate change known by participating in a survey being run by the Centre for Applied Cross-Cultural research.

    Here is the link to the survey:

    Taciano L. Milfont, Ph.D. is the contact person – if you have any questions, his email address is:

    I think this is a golden opportunity to let the researchers know just how many of us do NOT believe in devastating climate change- I encourage everyone to do this survey, it only takes about 10-15 minutes.


    Climate Change Survey:

    Dear colleagues,

    I would like to invite you to take part in an online survey titled “Climate Change and New Zealand Society”, which has been approved by the School of Psychology Human Ethics Committee

    You can participate in this study whether you believe in human-induced climate change or not.

    The purpose of this study is to examine people’s views about how acting on climate change could affect our society and our way of life.

    To participate in our survey, just click on the link below. If the link does not work, please copy the address and paste it into your web-browser.

    We would also appreciate if you could send this invitation to your own network.

    Thank you very much for your time and help in making this research possible.

    Kind regards,


    Taciano L. Milfont, Ph.D.
    Senior Lecturer
    Centre for Applied Cross-Cultural Research | School of Psychology | Victoria University of Wellington | New Zealand
    Security Code: 74007

  83. Andy on 20/09/2013 at 4:45 pm said:

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Stakeholder Workshop

    The Royal Society of New Zealand together with the NZCCC therefore invites you to attend this free half-day Stakeholder Workshop at the Royal Society of New Zealand, 11 Turnbull St, Thorndon, Wellington on Friday 11 October, 9am – 1pm. (Registration and coffee from 8:30am.)

  84. Andy on 13/10/2013 at 8:17 pm said:

    Southern Alps’ ice levels show sharp decrease

    According to Dr Anderson’s research model, the ice volume loss recorded since 1977 could be attributed either to the halving of the precipitation level on the South Island’s West Coast for the period or an increase in temperature of about 1C, Dr Salinger said.

    “Precipitation actually increased in the latter part of the 20th century, whereas temperatures warmed by a degree so its clearly temperature which has been doing it.”


  85. Andy on 16/10/2013 at 10:23 am said:

    The IPCC workshop recently held in Wellington NZ have released the streaming webcast as a playback video.

    It can be viewed using this link

    • Andy on 16/10/2013 at 3:00 pm said:

      The second video has the first 20 mins or so with Dave Frame talking about climate sensitivity and also the various “irreversible” scenarios that could happen, most of which now fall into the “very unlikely” basket

  86. Andy on 22/10/2013 at 2:28 pm said:

    Dave Frame –
    ” I am profoundly uninterested in climate deniers. I don’t think they matter.”

    What is a “climate denier”?

    • Richard C (NZ) on 22/10/2013 at 8:31 pm said:

      DF is right, climate deniers don’t matter because they don’t exist – except as DF strawmen or something similar.

      And DF might look at his own relevancy, that’s in danger of sinking out of sight too. The new HS banner line puts it succinctly:

      If you can’t explain the ‘pause’, you can’t explain the cause…

      Get to work DF.

    • Andy on 22/10/2013 at 9:15 pm said:

      DF seems to spend a lot of time justifying himself to the inmates at HT.
      Not sure why

    • Andy on 23/10/2013 at 11:52 am said:

      DF writes again

      Denialists don’t matter for a specific reason – because time is increasingly showing that they are wrong. Time is showing that IPCC is broadly right about the relationship between GHG and climate. [Also, denialists tend to be of a certain age… I don’t think there are any well-qualified denialists under age 55, are there?]

      I guess the longer the “pause” goes on, the more confident we get in the connection between CO2 and climate. Is that how it is supposed to work?

      I’m not sure how being over 55 makes you more likely to be a “denialist” (not me anyway, quite yet)

      Maybe its the years of being fed BS has made the older generation a bit more immune to this

    • Richard C (NZ) on 23/10/2013 at 12:30 pm said:

      “Time” against “denialists”? Wake up DF.

  87. Andy on 01/11/2013 at 3:05 pm said:

    Some ad homs on Vincent Gray

    Anthony Watts, denialist blogger at has copied and pasted another disinformation article, this time by Vincent Gray from New Zealand (archived here). Vincent Gray is writing at WUWT about sea level and gets lots and lots wrong. Which is to be expected. Vincent Gray has devoted the past few years to his new career of climate science disinformer.

    Anthony Watts seems to think he should be shown respect because he’s getting very old. Vincent Gray is a climate science denier going back a few years now. He founded the science-disinformation organisation “New Zealand Climate Science Coalition” back in April 2006 back when he was a sprightly 84 year old.

    (my emphasis)

  88. Andy on 08/01/2014 at 12:22 pm said:

    Coastal Chch under water with 100 years – report

    Experts have delivered a dire warning that rising sea levels will put some suburban areas of coastal Christchurch under water within 100 years.

    The city council is now making plans for what will be a vastly different looking Canterbury coastline, caused by warming seas, melting ice in Greenland and Antarctica, and more storm surges.

    South New Brighton, South Shore, Sumner, Brooklands and even parts of Linwood will become water logged if current sea level increase predictions eventuate.

    This is will lead to planned abandonment of residential areas, not too unlike what happened to the worst affected earthquake areas, which were red zoned.

    The Insurance industry says that houses in those areas will over a long period of time become uninsurable.

    Just as well we got a cash settlement on our coastal ChCh property then.

    • Richard C (NZ) on 08/01/2014 at 1:32 pm said:

      >”….we got a cash settlement on our coastal ChCh property…”

      Great, now you can move to Holland or somewhere………oh wait……not Holland.

    • Andy on 08/01/2014 at 1:37 pm said:

      We are moving closer to the Alpine Fault.

      One way or another, we will get nailed.

    • Of course, you cannot escape. General Douglas MacArthur said: “There is no security on this earth, there is only opportunity.”

    • Andy on 08/01/2014 at 6:42 pm said:

      Unfortunately things are not so great for the large number of people who are left, still trying to sort out insurance claims, who may end up with uninsurable homes.

      The report was done by engineering consulting company Tonkin and Taylor for around $90,000 and doubles the projections from the IPCC, claiming that they are too conservative.

    • Mike Jowsey on 08/01/2014 at 8:42 pm said:

      A good time to invest in cheap oceanside homes…

    • Andy on 09/01/2014 at 10:47 am said:

      Some key points from the article.

      Instead of sea levels rising to half a metre by 2115 as predicted by international authority Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the Tonkin & Taylor report says it will be double this.

      So T&T are now the authority on sea level rise, not the IPCC.

      The Tonkin & Taylor report for the city council says areas of the eastern suburbs may need to be abandoned in a “managed retreat”.

      Managed retreat means a strategic decision is made by authorities to abandon or relocate properties and assets in the area.

      The report warns if this cannot be done then authorities will have to undertake “forced retreat”

      Vicky Buck is deputy mayor and a committed “warmist”, having started web site and has various business interests in “green” projects.

      Good time to get the heck out of ChCh, I would say, before the “forced retreat” starts.

  89. Andy on 17/01/2014 at 11:01 am said:

    The Tonkin and Taylor report on sea level rise with respect to Christchurch is here,

    In this, they make the point that current sea level rise around NZ coastlines is 1.9mm per year. They also point out that there has been no sea level rise measured in the last decade in NZ (page 9)

    From here, they go on to extrapolate a possible sea level rise of up to 1 metre by 2100, although the graph on page 7 (Figure 2.1) has the linear rise of 1.9mm/y as a lower bound, and a rapidly rising sea level as the upper bound.

    I am not sure why this report was commissioned by the Christchurch City Council before AR5 was released.

    Based on this report, which is essentially a literature review based on modelled assumptions, people on the east side of Christchurch have no future to look forward to.

  90. Mike Jowsey on 19/04/2014 at 2:28 am said:

    Came across this article referenced at Climate Depot. A Timaru Herald article in 2007 which quotes that ray of sunshine Augie Auer as saying “We’re all going to survive this. It’s all going to be a joke in five years,” he said. A combination of misinterpreted and misguided science, media hype, and political spin had created the current hysteria and it was time to put a stop to it. “It is time to attack the myth of global warming,” he said.”

    RIP Augie – you are sadly missed.

  91. Mike Jowsey on 03/05/2014 at 10:58 pm said:

    David Kear, former Director-General of NZ Scientific Research, says global warming is a non-existent threat

    The widespread obsession with Global-Warming-Climate-Change, in opposition to all factual evidence, is quite incredible. It leads to unfair treatment of some citizens, and a massive bill for all, for nothing useful. When will citizens revolt effectively against such callous disregard for their observations and wishes, by those who are essentially their elected employees? When will the perpetrators examine the basis of their ideology, and realise that it’s based on unfounded unscientific beliefs, not on confirmed, widely-available investigations by real scientists who abide by the moral standards of their profession?

    h/t Jo Nova

  92. Mike Jowsey on 12/06/2014 at 3:44 pm said:

    “A New Zealand scientist says deteriorating soil quality is the most important issue facing the world today.”

    During the video he says “…with climate change there are many uncertainties, but soil we can measure”.

  93. Mike Jowsey on 18/08/2014 at 2:20 pm said:

    What can farmers do about climate change?

    Apparently the science is settled, so now its all about mitigation. According to some rent-seeking academic at Lincoln College….

  94. HemiMck on 19/08/2014 at 2:50 pm said:

    Hi Mike,

    I was tempted to respond on their Blog but I think the farmers had it well covered.

    But I am curious as to the extent that “The New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre and its many partners” have their nose in the trough.

  95. Mike Jowsey on 29/08/2014 at 10:36 am said:

    Bit of a stoush brewing with MetService (NIWA) being accused of blocking basic weather data….

    MetService made double record profits last year, which would be fine had they not also been blocking the most basic of weather data which is a public safety and general economic issue. MetService say they aren’t blocking data but this week Auckland Civil Defence came out and publicly backed in this widely supported effort to free up our nation’s most basic weather data.

    • Richard C (NZ) on 29/08/2014 at 2:51 pm said:

      >”MetService (NIWA)”

      Different entities Mike.

      See: Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd
      Annual Report 2013

      Section 20. page 14:
      Corporate Governance Statement
      As a State-owned enterprise (SOE), MetService is wholly-owned by the Crown. Two Shareholding Ministers act on behalf of the Crown – the Minister of Finance and the Minister for State
      Owned Enterprises.

      Section 41, page 24:
      The ultimate controlling party of the Group is the Crown.

      Relationship with the Crown
      Meteorological Service of New Zealand Limited is a limited liability company incorporated in New Zealand, under the Companies Act 1993. The shares are held equally by the Minister for State Owned Enterprises and the Minister of Finance on behalf of the Crown. The Crown does not guarantee the liabilities of Meteorological Service of New Zealand Limited.

  96. Richard C (NZ) on 07/10/2014 at 8:43 pm said:

    Jim Salinger at The Conversation discussed here:

    Drought, GHGs, ozone., and natural variation (SAM).

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