Ocean heat content

This thread is for discussion of ocean heat content.

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Richard C (NZ)AndyMike JowseyRichard TreadgoldBob D Recent comment authors
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OHC & Earth’s Energy Budget

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Roger Pielke’s 2003 paper on heat storage in the oceans:

http://pielkeclimatesci.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/r-247.pdf

HEAT STORAGE WITHIN THE EARTH SYSTEM
ROGER A. PIELKE SR.
2003 American Meteorological Society

Note the following about the statement on page 334:

“An assessment of the heat storage within the earth’s climate system offers a unique perspective on global change. If the heat actually remains within the earth system in the deeper ocean, for example, while the heat content of the remainder of the heat reservoirs in the earth system remains unchanged, sudden transfers of the heat between components of the system (from the ocean into the atmosphere) could produce rapid, unanticipated changes in global weather. “

Prof. Pielke:

Since I wrote that statement, I have become convinced that since deep ocean heating is diffused through relatively large volumes of the ocean (as indicated in the NOAA study), it cannot suddenly reappear in the atmosphere. Indeed, we can now monitor with the Argo network in order to assess if there are large amounts of heat (in Joules) migrating towards the surface of the ocean.

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A paper showing negative heat flux from oceans since 2003, hence no radiative imbalance:

http://www.pas.rochester.edu/~douglass/papers/KD_InPress_final.pdf

Recent energy balance of Earth
R. S. Knox and D. H. Douglass
Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY 14627-0171 USA

This is a very important result, taken in context with the paper above. It means there has been no positive radiative imbalance FTOA since 2003. The Earth is in steady state. This implies Trenberth and therefore Hansen are incorrect in their adherence to a 0.85 W/m2 radiative imbalance at TOA.

Bob D
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Bob D

Paper showing ocean cooling: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010JPO4410.1?journalCode=phoc Vélez-Belchí, Pedro, Alonso Hernández-Guerra, Eugenio Fraile-Nuez, Verónica Benítez-Barrios, 2010: Changes in Temperature and Salinity Tendencies of the Upper Subtropical North Atlantic Ocean at 24.5°N. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 40, 2546–2555. doi: 10.1175/2010JPO4410.1 Abstract: Strong interest in multidecadal changes in ocean temperature and heat transport has resulted in the occupation of the North Atlantic Ocean hydrographic transect along 24.5°N five times since 1957, more than any other transoceanic section in the world. This latitude is chosen because it is where the northward ocean transport of heat in the Atlantic reaches its maximum. An analysis of the five oceanographic cruises at this latitude shows that there has been a significant cooling of −0.15°C in the upper ocean (600–1800-dbar range) over the last 7 years, from 1998 to 2004, which is in contrast to the warming of 0.27°C observed from 1957 to 1998. Salinity shows a similar change in tendency, with freshening since 1998. For the upper ocean at 24.5°N, 1998 was the warmest and saltiest year since 1957. Data from the Argo network are used to corroborate the strong cooling and freshening since 1998, showing a −0.13°C cooling in the period… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Nuccitelli – “heat is accumulating in the Earth’s climate system due to the increased greenhouse effect” Skeptical Science blog (Nuccitelli et al, 2012) – “90% of global warming goes into the ocean” Schmittner – “Most heat trapped by carbon dioxide and other gases added to the atmosphere is absorbed by the oceans” Rahmstorf – ”heat penetrates faster into the oceans in a warmer climate” OK, so given the use of the word “heat” I assume that the process is convective/conductive sensible heat transfer (or maybe not – see below). This begs a few questions for the above-named to answer:- 1) If say, 40 yr heat accumulation in the ocean (18×10^22 J approx) is not solar-sourced, but energy sourced from the atmosphere (low specific heat) from GHG energy entrapment and moved to the ocean (high specific heat) against the predominant thermal gradient then there must be documentation of this process somewhere with accompanying thermodynamic calculations – what reference is there to this in scientific literature? 2)a) Given the amount of energy involved, someone must have noticed the transfer occurring at the ocean/atmosphere interface and measured the heat transfer in order to quantify it and… Read more »

Andy
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Good luck with Oregon Live. I see they changed the subject to glacial retreat for some reason

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

At SkS too Andy. I’ve contacted Gordon Fulks, Robert Knox and David Douglass, sending them links to my list of questions at the respective forums. No replies yet.

Andy
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Aside from the physics of the matter, I am somewhat sceptical that they can map the ocean and find warming within fractions of a degree. Land surface temps are hard enough, but a 3D problem like ocean heat has to be somewhat challenging to map.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

In the case of ocean surface, the mapping is ARGO and fixed buoys and sparse as it is that’s better since 2003/04 than anything prior. In the case of atm over ocean, the mapping is satellite-only traverse. The problem is that, as you allude perhaps Andy, identifying the locations of the ocean surface where the thermal gradient is atm => ocean from time-to-time (if any) at the required accuracy for their process to take place (if even remotely plausible) and huge amounts of energy transferred to the ocean (extremely doubtful). I’m sure there’s not many of those instances because on global average the ocean is about 3 C warmer than the atmosphere. Otherwise they’re saying their atm => ocean heat transfer defies convention. I’m asking for evidence that their phenomenon has been measured but where would such measurements have taken place given the difficulty of identifying atm temp directly adjacent to a buoy say, whether fixed or ARGO, let alone in 3D above, below and along the surface to the accuracy required? These are the little technical difficulties attendant to the main issue that spring to the sceptical mind but not to those… Read more »

Andy
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SkS have always got the get-out clause that we are all conspiracy theorists who believe that the moon landings were faked, now that they have endorsed Lewpaper #2 (the “recursive fury papers”)

Nicely dealt with by Ben Pile here:

http://www.climate-resistance.org/2013/02/blognitive-dissonance.html

Apologies for the wrong thread.

Richard Treadgold
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Richard, this is stunning. I saw at once that the warmists are proposing something quite different from the Real Climate/SKS “cool skin” theory, which only slows the transfer of energy from sea to air. You ask the penetrating questions that need asking, though I suspect the warmists might simply not answer them. I’ve been asking for evidence of DAGW for years and the response has always been “the evidence is overwhelming.”

My wife seems to accept that the deep ocean is warming even if the surface isn’t and reckons there’ll be giant squids down there going: “oh, this is lovely!”

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

>”I saw at once that the warmists are proposing something quite different from the Real Climate/SKS “cool skin” theory.”

If only the guys at SkS could comprehend same. My first painful task is to get them to address the process as inferred from the quotes and deal with “look over there” comments, let alone obtain a response that addresses the questions one-by-one.

BTW, the cool-skin phenomenon is real (documented in Fairall 1996), modification of it by GHG DLR is the Minnett theory (his posited insulation effect).

Richard Treadgold
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RC,

BTW, the cool-skin phenomenon is real (documented in Fairall 1996), modification of it by GHG DLR is the Minnett theory (his posited insulation effect).

Ok, thanks for that. The cool skin seemed feasible, but the idea that an insignificant flow of thermal energy from the air could overwhelm the routine colossal flow from the ocean was too implausible. Now I can separate them. [Typed this comment a few hours ago and didn’t press Enter.]

Mike Jowsey
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Mike Jowsey

IMO this should be a guest post. Raises very good points. Needs profile raised. (IMHO)

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

>”Needs profile raised” Yes Mike, great that you see it that way. If climate scientists and SkS cohorts continue to assert that anthropogenic global warming heat “is going into” the ocean (and variations on that) then we need to keep asking for: evidence of an anthropogenically-driven-specific phenomenon occurring; the process detail; quantification and actual significance of the process; the documentation; and, the IPCC assessment of it all (what does the AR5 draft say for example, we know what AR4 says). I’m quite OK (a pragmatic acceptance of 0 – 2000m OHC metrics) with the notion that “global warming is continuing” (the current refrain) but in the ocean even though there’s standstill in the atmosphere. I bulk however, at the assumption of anthropogenic attribution by hand waving. >”should be a guest post” I will write up a tidy comment here soon that RT could either uplift or use to compile his own post (he may even be putting something together now) to summarize what I see as the state-of-play in view of the SkS thread. Tricky, because it needs to be concise and tell a story at the same time. Maybe there should be… Read more »

Andy
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The latest SkS post is entitled “The Great Disconnect: the human disease of which climate change is but one symptom”

So any chance of engaging them on science is probably fairly minimal

Mike Jowsey
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Mike Jowsey

Great questions Richard. Got me to thinking about the study published last year describing a reduction of global cloud cover globally by 3 or 4% over the last 30 years. Might this be a simple reason for slight ocean warming? Provided, of course, that the oceans have in fact warmed slightly. As Andy notes, difficult to measure and map. Argo buoys are thin on the ground ocean – and only measure Lake Superior once a year 😉

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Hi Mike. >”Might this be a simple reason for slight ocean warming?” Yes, cloudiness definitely modulates insolation and is largely the explanation for dimming/brightening/albedo changes that change phase maybe twice in 30 yrs. OHC rose significantly during the 90s when there was less cloud cover than usual for example. Over a longer multi-century scale time-frame though I’m inclined to think OHC accumulation has a solar explanation that doesn’t include the cloud factor but I’m not pushing that at SkS. Dr David Stockwell’s accumulation theory has “errors” apparently and besides that’s not the issue anyway. >”Provided, of course, that the oceans have in fact warmed slightly” According to pre-ARGO data the oceans have warmed horrendously (Ques 1, 18×10^22 J approx) and this is the crux of the issue. The process I’m questioning attributes ALL of that ocean heat accumulation to heat entrapment in the atmosphere. That heat has then been transferred (apparently, according to the process inferred from the quotes) to the ocean. That is a major thermodynamic process (if it can be proven) to say the least. I’m highly sceptical of OHC metrics but accept them pragmatically for the purposes of investigation (as… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Thought my comments at SkS were blocked – didn’t realize they’d gone to page 2.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

I placed a comment in Tallblokes ‘Suggestions’ pointing to the SkS thread. Tim Channon responded but said it was out of his scope but of interest to Roger but Roger was away for a few days. Tim left the comment in moderation so Roger will see it so Tallbloke might have something on it when he comes back if his interest is piqued enough.

I’ve also notified Gordon Fulks, Robert Knox and David Douglass but no replies so I don’t know if they had a look or not, probably not.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

My last comment at SkS (76) was removed retroactively (censored) e.g. 76. scaddenp at 13:32 PM on 7 February, 2013 http://www.skepticalscience.com/news.php?p=2&t=77&&n=1853#90482 77. Composer99 at 17:47 PM on 7 February, 2013 Richard: Further to your comment #76 + + + I pointed out in the removed comment addressed to Rob Painting that his quote of Stefan Rahmstorf at 70 that Rob thought was from 2012 was actually copied from comments under the Minnett post in 2006 and that Stefan was describing the cool-skin phenomenon – no problem. He was NOT however asserting that an enhanced insulation effect (Minnett’s theory) explained the last 40 yrs of OHC accumulation and that he subscribed to it as the “mainstream view” of the OHC accumulation process. Painting:- As for Stefan Rahmstorf, I know for a fact that he ascribes to the mainstream view that greenhouse gases warm the ocean through the reduced thermal gradient in the cool-skin layer. He was involved in a disagreement between myself and other commenters on Real Climate some months back and made his views on this known. Is it really any surprise that he agrees with the established research? http://www.skepticalscience.com/news.php?p=2&t=77&&n=1853#90482 I also pointed… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

How Increasing Carbon Dioxide Heats The Ocean

Posted on 18 October 2011 by Rob Painting

Much like a heated kettle of water takes some time before it comes to the boil, it seems intuitive that the world’s oceans will also take some time to fully respond to global warming. Unlike a kettle, however, it’s not obvious how the oceans warm.

Adding further greenhouse gases to the atmosphere warms the ocean cool skin layer, which in turn reduces the amount of heat flowing out of the ocean. Reducing the heat lost to the atmosphere allows the oceans to steadily warm over time – as has been observed over the last half century.

>>>>>>>>>>

http://www.skepticalscience.com/How-Increasing-Carbon-Dioxide-Heats-The-Ocean.html

Not the way the IPCC sees it Rob.

Andy
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It’s pretty poor show if they completely remove your comment and then still have replies to it in the thread. Mind you, this is a long-term problem at SkS. Welcome to the twilight zone, I guess

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Anthropogenic Ocean Heating?

Part 1: Skeptical Science Offside (v2)

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Kol9es16MgoyxdL_4f2jwf1Bxqp6CyOtQnSCfNC-j6U/edit?usp=sharing

Part 2: The Improbable IPCC Mechanism

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1S91YV1Z8aT-qD9Ydj_kn8JAM3R-l-H5eK9LZwMuAsOE/edit?usp=sharing

Part 3: Rahmstorf, Schmittner and Nuccitelli

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1KRTABbfREFs-1bYfzUdLzikf22N_Dp2wbBBQXzCfb5c/edit?usp=sharing

Ctrl c/v to copy/paste. Please report any typos, broken links, dumb stuff etc.

Will send this series to Joanne Nova and Roger Weatherall (TallBloke).

Andy
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Steve McIntyre interviewed by the NZ National Business Review

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/too-much-hot-air-about-global-warming-says-researcher-rv-1

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

SkS have a glitch in their “global” warming going into the ocean meme.

3-month heat content from 1955 to present

* Basin time series

http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/basin_data.html

– World: 0 – 2000 meters (Oct-Dec) , 0 – 700
2005.875 , 12.637 , 7.849959
2012.875 , 16.630 , 10.641594

– Atlantic: 0 – 2000 meters (Oct-Dec) , 0 – 700
2005.875 , 6.256 , 4.896
2012.875 , 6.882 , 4.491

– Pacific: 0 – 2000 meters (Oct-Dec) , 0 – 700
2005.875 , 4.188 , 3.291
2012.875 , 4.227 , 2.858

– Indian: 0 – 2000 meters (Oct-Dec) , 0 – 700
2005.875 , 2.194 , 1.094
2012.875 , 5.520 , 3.923

Over the last 7 years, “global” warming has been going into the [Indian] ocean, and 70% (2.8×10^22) of the 7 yr World: 0 – 2000 meters heat increase (4×10^22 Joules) has gone into the 0 – 700 m layer of the Indian Ocean.

Question is: where did it come from? Pacific? Hydrovents? Skydragon?

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Tisdale:-

The NODC’s pentadal data at both depths don’t appear to be credible. That’s about as nice as I can phrase that statement.

If I can make a few recommendations to the NODC:

1. Post the annual and quarterly data for the depths of 0-2000 meters and toss the pentadal data. The pentadal data looks contrived—like you’ve tortured your ocean heat content data until it gave you the answer you wanted. It’s a sad thing to say, but that seems to be becoming standard operating procedure for the climate science community.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/03/13/nodcs-pentadal-ocean-heat-content-0-to-2000m-creates-warming-that-doesnt-exist-in-the-annual-data-a-lot-of-warming/

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

‘Oceans Were Warmer In MWP’ By Paul Homewood, April 24, 2015 While we’re on the topic of sea surface temperatures, let’s take a look at this paper from 2013, that I don’t recall the BBC or Guardian reporting! ‘Pacific Ocean Heat Content During the Last 10,000 Years’ Rosenthal, Linsley, and Oppo (2013) http://www.sciencemag.org/content/342/6158/617 ABSTRACT Observed increases in ocean heat content (OHC) and temperature are robust indicators of global warming during the past several decades. We used high-resolution proxy records from sediment cores to extend these observations in the Pacific 10,000 years beyond the instrumental record. We show that water masses linked to North Pacific and Antarctic intermediate waters were warmer by 2.1 ± 0.4°C and 1.5 ± 0.4°C, respectively, during the middle Holocene Thermal Maximum than over the past century. Both water masses were ~0.9°C warmer during the Medieval Warm period than during the Little Ice Age and ~0.65° warmer than in recent decades. Although documented changes in global surface temperatures during the Holocene and Common era are relatively small, the concomitant changes in OHC are large. Editor’s Summary Global warming is popularly viewed only as an atmospheric process, when, as shown by… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

‘Comments on Riser et al (2016)’ [ARGO Ocean Heat Content]

Bob Tisdale

I’ve included Figure 5 from Riser et al. (2016) as my Figure 1. Let’s zoom in on the inset graph of the ARGO-based data included in Figure 5 from Riser et al. (2016), my Figure 2.

SH Extratropics (black), Trpics (Red), NH Extratropics (blue)
comment image

See post
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/02/22/comments-on-riser-et-al-2016-an-infomercial-about-the-argo-program/

# # #

NH and Tropics are flat. The global metric is skewed by SH Extratropics i.e. looking at the global metric is only really looking at the SH Extratropics.

And I suspect the SH is skewed by the Indian Ocean i.e. looking at the global metric is only really looking at the SH Extratropics of the Indian Ocean.