Hey, Renwick says climate ‘could’ get hotter

He ‘could’ be worth reading

— by Owen Jennings
Member, NZ Climate Science Coalition

Someone called James Renwick, described as a “climate scientist”, managed to get himself on the front page of Granny Herald. I’m not sure what a climate scientist is. We never used to have such a term – we just had geologists, physicists, biologists, chemists, etc.

But now I stop to think, we might have had a climate scientist down the West Coast when I was a kid. Old Harry Watson was the local guru on all things climate. He knew if it was going to be a wet summer or a cold winter. He could tell you which week to cut the hay or castrate the lambs. He was always crystal clear, very definite and stuck to his guns. Mind you, predicting a wet summer on the Coast was a pretty sure bet.

But this guy Renwick doesn’t know his job. He’s all “coulds”: it “could get hotter”, it “could get wetter”, the sea level “could rise”, the Pacific Islands “could become uninhabitable”, New Zealand “could become a haven for refugees.” What a wimp! The Herald calls him a professor. Old Harry leaves Renwick for dead on climate predictions and Harry isn’t a “professor” of anything much although he does know when the whitebait are running.

What’s the use of “could” happen? All things “could” happen and all things “could” not happen. It’s about as useless as it gets. If he’s a professor he should give references to back up his “coulds”. That’s what real scientists do.

Coulda shoulda woulda

Come to think of it, maybe he got warned off by that guy Hansen – he is another professor of climate predictions and he said back in 1998 that New York would be half under water by the year 2000. He should have said “could be under water” — coulda been safer.

Or maybe it was a warning from that other great professor – Albert Gore. He made a movie about the nasty things that were going to happen – no arctic, no polar bears, no snow on Kilimanjaro, no food, no future. Professor James should have told him about “could”. But, come to think of it, James will probably never get a Nobel Prize and a $300 million bank account.

He “could” get a job advising TIME magazine though. TIME magazine’s January 31, 1977, cover featured a story, “How to Survive the Coming Ice Age.” It included “facts” such as scientists predicting that Earth’s so-called average temperature could drop by 20 degrees Fahrenheit due to man-made global cooling. Dr Murray Mitchell of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warned readers that “the drop in temperature between 1945 and 1968 had taken us one sixth of the way to the next Ice Age temperature.”

Now TIME have come out with a totally opposite version — we’re all going to a hot hell in a handbasket. They have dropped the “could”. They must be right this time, for sure. They would have been better to follow James’s lead and add a “could” or two again.

Mind you, Professor James might be on to something with his “could be hotter, could be wetter” meme. The IPCC, a group set up by the UN to inflict global warming on us, get all antsy about predictions and they’re a bit more sophisticated than Kiwi James. They use lofty terms like “low confidence” and “high confidence”. In other words they haven’t got a clue and their pride won’t let them be simple and clear-cut, like my old mate from down the Coast.

Old Harry Watson

One thing for sure, old Harry doesn’t have any “models” to go by — although he did have a Model T years ago. It was a darn side more reliable than the models Professor James reviews. Harry would have told James to “get real” had he seen the models James relies on. He would have pointed out that when their predictions are a degree out, it’s time to give up. “You’d be better off coming down the Coast and catching some eels while I teach you a few facts about what the climate does,” would be Harry’s advice.

“As for ‘catastrophes’, the only catastrophe we have had down here is when we elected that O’Connor guy to Parliament. Another Irishman preaching what ‘could’ happen. And ’emergencies’, yep, we have one of them — the cockies are getting chased out by trees. And what happens when the local shuts down and I can’t get a beer? That’s a real emergency.”

“Send that professor down here — I’ll sort out his coulds.”

 

 

 

 

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Gwan
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Gwan

Hi Owen , In our stuff paper very soon to be stuffed , yesterday the prediction from some one probably by the first name James stated that in the next 30 years our sea level will rise by 30 centimeters . For a paper to print this utter rubbish without any checking says everything about our news reporting I have been told by the best earth scientist in New Zealand that our sea level rise is 1.5 mm per year and there is no sign of any acceleration. 1.5 mm times 30 comes to 4.5 centimeters not 30 centimeters. One centimeter per year would be a rise of one meter per century a rate that has not been recorded since the last ice age was retreating from the Northern hemisphere 12 to 15 thousand years ago . Greenland’s ice melt has averaged about 103 billion tonnes of ice per year and that is contributing to the 1.5 mm sea level rise and also warmer water in the worlds oceans , There would have to be a 7 or 8 fold ice melt in Greenland every year to accelerate the sea level rise to… Read more »

Man of Thessaly
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Man of Thessaly

Gwan: “I have been told by the best earth scientist in New Zealand that our sea level rise is 1.5 mm per year and there is no sign of any acceleration.”

I’m calling bullshit on this, Gwan. Please name this scientist, their credentials for being “the best”, and the analysis that supports the claim about sea level rise in NZ. Because the data, from actual named scientists, say something different.

See the Ministry for the Environment guidance on coastal hazards and climate change , page 81:

Records from the four main port tide gauges indicate a doubling in the rate of sea-level rise around the New Zealand coastline over the last five to six decades, from an average of around 1 mm/yr earlier last century to nearly 2 mm/yr from 1961 on

And this cites the analysis by Rob Bell and John Hannah.

It looks like your “best scientist” might have just looked at the average over the whole record.

Man of Thessaly
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Man of Thessaly

I see from another thread that you’re probably referring to Willem de Lange, who you refer to there as “the best sea level scientist”. Can you provide us with a reference to some recent research he’s published on sea level? I don’t see any on his publication list on the Waikato University website.

Gwan
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Gwan

Man of Thessaly so you know much more than Willem de Lange . He has stated to me that his research shows no acceleration of sea level rise and the rise around the New Zealand coast is 1.5 mm per year averaged over any number of years . So you agree with the dimwit who wrote this opinion and stated it as a fact .10 centimeters a year BS. Willem de Lange is an honest scientist and if you are going to disparage him for telling the truth that shows how hard it is and how honest scientists to tell the truth . They have to keep their heads down as when they stand up people like you boy of thistle have a go at them . Argue the facts boy. There is no sign of sea level rise acceleration and for any one to state there is they have to have an ulterior motive. as for a seven fold increase it aint going to happen . They want to scare little boys like you man of thestle . Lies are lies and these people should be taken to court and be made… Read more »

Man of Thessaly
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Man of Thessaly

Gwan: “so you know much more than Willem de Lange”

Perhaps I do; you haven’t provided us with any information about his expertise on sea level, or the analysis that might support the statements you attribute to him. But I wasn’t pretending to be the expert; I cited published results, with publicly-available data and analyses. They say the rate of sea level rise in NZ has doubled of the last 50-60 years. What basis do you have to dispute that? Until you can back up your claims, I still call bullshit. Try responding with some data, instead of resorting to insults.

Simon
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Simon

We don’t know for sure because we don’t know what future greenhouse gas emissions are going to be. What we do know:

1. It will get hotter. We have yet to reach equilibrium climate sensitivity and we will not do so until net emissions reach zero.

2. Sea levels will increase. Multiple metres of sea level rise is already guaranteed but we do not know for certain how quickly that increase will occur. There are multiple potential tipping points. Paleo-climatic history shows that sea level rise in definitely non-linear, .e.g Meltwater Pulse 1A.

When looking for advice about future climate, Prof Renwick knows a lot more than ‘Harry’ or Owen Jennings.

Gwan
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Gwan

Man of Thessaly and Simon . I think that people like you are beyond help . But I will try and help you both even that I think that I am wasting my time . Google Willem de Lange and then click on the link “Evidence doesn’t support rapid future sea level rise ” Read this carefully and you might learn a lot that our news media is not telling the general public. If you think that Renwick is a reputable scientist ,think again. I have been following his comments for over 25 years and he is far more activist than scientist . Years ago he wrote in the Herald that the MWP was an inconvenient fact and then a group of scientists proceeded to try and vanish the MWP from history . The world has been much warmer than present three times since the end of the last Ice age 12000 years ago. I know that these scientists that are pushing climate change think that because the worlds temperature has increased with the rise of CO2 that C02 is pushing the forcing and that the emissions have to be curbed . There… Read more »

Man of Thessaly
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Man of Thessaly

Gwan,
I asked you for evidence that Willem de Lange is “the best sea level scientist”, and you provided… nothing. Not a single scientific publication on sea level.
I asked you for evidence that NZ sea level rise has not increased, and you respond with… an opinion piece in the NBR. No analysis.
I don’t care what you believe, and I don’t expect to change your mind, but surely you can see that any council or planner would be absolutely pilloried if they accepted your assertions over the actual data and evidence.

You also gave me a good laugh by saying “There is no evidence that the doubling of CO2 will cause more than 6 tenths of one degree Celsius of warming ”
So, Gwan, how do you account for the fact that we already have about 1 degree of warming, with a CO2 increase of about 45%?

Perhaps you should stick to farming.

Gwan
Guest
Gwan

Man of T. At least we can laugh together but were is your proof that the doubling of CO2 will cause any more than 6 tenths of one degree Celsius. There is no proof that the doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere will cause more than 6 tenths of a degree Celsius . The theory that it will cause any more warming than that relies on positive feed backs from water vapour and also the tropical hot spot . Some scientists may believe passionately that CO2 is the control knob of the climate but this is still an unproven theory as water vapour swamps any effects of CO2 and clouds both warm and cool the earth (which all farmers are well aware ) There is no proof that the warming of one degree Celsius that has happened since 1750 is a not natural variation as the world has warmed from the end of the little Ice age . Bring some proof to this forum . Here are some examples that are not facts and are NOT proof . 97% of scientists believe . Models tell us that CO2 will cause 3.5 to 4.5… Read more »

Man of Thessaly
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Man of Thessaly

Hi Gwan,
Glad you enjoy a laugh too, but I’m still calling bullshit on your sea level claims. The analysis of NZ tide gauges shows the rate has doubled. You haven’t provided any evidence to the contrary. Put up or shut up.

You say: “There is no proof that the warming of one degree Celsius that has happened since 1750 is a not natural variation as the world has warmed from the end of the little Ice age .
Bring some proof to this forum .”

Science doesn’t deal in proof – your demand is just misdirection. It deals in evidence. The best estimates of anthropogenic warming are the same as what has been observed, about 1 degree. Physics says so. If you think it’s not caused by greenhouse gases, what’s your alternative? “Natural variation” isn’t an answer. Where do you think the heat comes from?

Gwan
Guest
Gwan

Man of T , You are right out of your depth. Where does the heat come from ? The same big orange ball that has always been there . The sun and you don’t seem to even know that the one degree of warming that has happened since 1750 has happened many times before in the history of the earth . Many reputable scientists have worked on ice cores and many other proxies and have proven beyond any shadow of a doubt that the world has been much warmer than present many times in the past . Willem de Lange is a very reputable sea level scientist and his research shows clearly that the correct sea level rise around the New Zealand coast Just 1.5 mm per year . If you have another expert that is telling you that it is accelerating bring him on . By the way John Maunder our representative on behalf of New Zealand at the very first and second world climate conferences arranged a debate on global warming between Willem de Lange and James Renwick and Willem de Langes arguments annihilated Renwicks lame brain 97% consensus claims .… Read more »

Man of Thessaly
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Man of Thessaly

Gwan, “You are right out of your depth. Where does the heat come from ? The same big orange ball that has always been there .” Right. That’s where it all comes from, including the warming caused by greenhouse gases. Obviously that wasn’t my question to you, but since you seem to need it spelled out: what mechanism are you proposing caused the Earth to absorb more of the sun’s heat since 1750, other than greenhouse gases? A I said before, “natural variation” isn’t an answer; you need to provide some physics. What do you think? Increased solar radiation? Changing albedo? People have studied these things, you know. What do you know that they don’t? “you don’t seem to even know that the one degree of warming that has happened since 1750 has happened many times before in the history of the earth .” Of course I know this. It’s precisely from studies of past climate that we know enough about its causes to be very confident that the current warming is caused by greenhouse gases. “Willem de Lange is a very reputable sea level scientist and his research shows clearly that the… Read more »

Simon
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Simon

Interestingly, Venus probably had surface water for billions of years until a run-away global warming event about 700 million years ago.
https://www.space.com/planet-venus-could-have-supported-life.html

Mack
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Mack

” Venus probably had surface water for billions of years until a runaway global warming event about 700 million years ago” Yeah, right , Simon… there’s your atmospheric “global warming” caused by the “runaway greenhouse effect”….. you’re parroting away … from the GISS . (the progeny of Hansen) I counted 3 of what Owen Jennings pointed out : ie. “could have” , “may have” and your “probably had” . Pigs could have flown in the Venus atmosphere too. Simon. Back at the start of the 20th century, some were speculating that palm trees grew on Venus. This latest speculative garbage says..a “resurfacing event” ?.. caused release of CO2 stored in rocks to cause this evil CO2 to heat up the planet. Yeah , it’s the “greenhouse effect” in the atmosphere of Venus causing all that heat… nothing to do with the fact it’s very close to the Sun… takes about one Earth year to spin one day backwards on its axis….and you’ve got one large surface area (cf Mercury) constantly facing the Sun to oxidise the rock to a sea of super-critical CO2. ,completely covering the whole planet. A sea of CO2. So… Read more »

Man of Thessaly
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Man of Thessaly

Hey Gwan,
Your sea level assertion is looking more and more like bullshit.
As well as the NZ data showing that the rate of rise has doubled, the latest IPCC report says:

A3.1 Total GMSL rise for 1902–2015 is 0.16 m (likely range 0.12–0.21 m). The rate of GMSL rise for 2006–2015 of 3.6 mm yr–1 (3.1–4.1 mm yr–1, very likely range), is unprecedented over the last century (high confidence), and about 2.5 times the rate for 1901–1990 of 1.4 mm yr–1 (0.8– 2.0 mm yr–1, very likely range).

Which is fairly unreadable, but says that the rate of global sea level rise has doubled (at least).

So you really should provide some analysis to back up your claim, or else do the honourable thing and admit that it was bullshit.

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