Cooling forecast comes true

crystal ball

NIWA, where are you?

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, is calculated from the monthly or seasonal fluctuations in the air pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin.

In July last year three climate scientists published a paper in the Journal of Geophysical Research. “Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature” concluded that nature, not man, was responsible for “recent global warming.”

The paper, by John McClean, Chris DeFreitas and Bob Carter, shows that what the SOI does now, the temperature will do in between five and eight months’ time.

Simple. But does it work to predict global temperatures?

This is a preliminary report

Earlier this year, well-known civil engineer Bryan Leyland, of Auckland, became interested in finding out. He issued this graph which predicted temperatures in late 2010:

SOI forecast June 2010

Today, taking the latest known figures and estimating for the end of November, Bryan put together this composite image showing the cooling that has occurred since June:

SOI results December 2010

Bryan said today that he’s waiting with baited breath for the November results from Roy Spencer at UAH. He added: The world has started to cool. And it could be cool for the next seven months.”

Will this cooling kill 2010 as the hottest year?

Will the climate “establishment” notice there is a forecasting tool available? Will they deny that it works? Does it work?

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Mike Jowsey
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Mike Jowsey

Seems to work better than NIWA’s historical temperature graph!

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

“Bryan said today that hes waiting with baited breath for the November results from Roy Spencer at UAH”

Relax Bryan, AMSU mid-trop is only about 0.3C off record low and heading down. Still a bold prediction in June but it just shows how sensible trends can be determined relatively easily from historical metrics – and no need for a supercomputer!

Vindication also for John McClean, Chris DeFreitas and Bob Carter. They deserve recognition for their work especially given the efforts to suppress and discredit it by Foster, Annan, Jones, Mann, Renwick, Salinger, Schmidt, Trenberth and the JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH.

———————————————————————————————————————-
O/T
Chris Huhne, Climate Change and Energy Secretary, said a global insurance fund should be carefully studied as a way of providing funds.

The insurance industry already gets climate change. It poses a unique risk to our environment and our economies and most businesses realise that inaction is not an option, he said.

[If there is a prize for no-brainer/stating-the-obvious statements, Chris Huhne must be top qualifier]

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Also, it seems appropriate that “Cancun” means “nest of serpents” in ancient Mayan language.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

“efforts to suppress” I’m experiencing suppression myself fight now by NZ Herald comments moderation. I must have attracted too many “Likes” because I am shut out of all comments in posts where I have commented previously and cannot comment on new articles. A recently submitted comment did not see the light of day so I can only assume that the moderator is a warmist. For the record, with your permission Richard T, these were recent replies. —————————————————————————————————————————- “Lord Hunt: China needs to wean itself off Old King Coal” @ Forward Thinker (Auckland City) 03:58PM Wednesday, 01 Dec 2010 The science has moved on in regard to water vapour contrary to your statement, see “Water Vapor’s Counterintuitive Effect on Climate” (non-monotonic change with temperature) http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/24079/ “Water vapor and the dynamics of climate changes” Schneider, O’Gorman, Levine, 2009 http://arxiv.org/abs/0908.4410 Sunspot cycles correlate with temperature better than irradiance Http:/www.global-warming-and-the-climate.com/images/sunspot-lenght-&-teperature-2009.gif This plot shows how well the sunspot cumulative total works as a proxy for Ocean Heat Content and how the ocean absorbs and releases heat in accordance with sunspot cycles http://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2010/07/ssa-sst-ssn.jpg Clouds and water vapour moderate climate by warming and cooling. For example, a reduction in long-term… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Have managed to send this message to the NZ Herald Online Editors. —————————————————————————————————————————– To: Online Editors I am curious as to why I am no longer able to submit comments but had been free to do do so until recently. My username is “nonentity” with the same email as above. Without knowing the real reason I can only assume that there is an active policy to stifle a dissenting view on the contentious issue of climate change. I have supported my comments with scientific evidence when challenged so I cannot see why I should be shut out of all NZ Herald discussion except that I was attracting too many “Likes” for editorial comfort. Being in opposition to the notion of man-made climate change means I get my share of flak from proponents but I do not expect censorship from NZ Herald on account of it. However I cannot rule out the possibility given the zeal expressed in favour of it, not just in comments but also in NZ Herald articles with no alternative hypotheses to AGW being presented. I note that my access ceased immediately after I presented in comments, a scientifically sound… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

The NZ Herald Online Editors must have got my message because I now have access to comments restored.

To date have had no communication from them stating the reason for my exclusion.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

No matter how many times I submit this correction, someone at NZ Herald Online edits out the word “drop”
——————————————————————————————————————————
Correction
“translates to a global temperature drop of 1.5 degree Celsius by 2020″
——————————————————————————————————————————
Am now trying this approach
——————————————————————————————————————————
@Moderation

Correction
“translates to a global temperature drop of 1.5 degree Celsius by 2020″

Please stop editing out the word “drop”

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Re NZ Herald Online editing out the word “drop” in my sequence of comments

The first comment editing occurred on this page

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/climate-change/news/article.cfm?c_id=26&objectid=10690687&pnum=3

The second here

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/climate-change/news/article.cfm?c_id=26&objectid=10690687&pnum=4

The third here

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/climate-change/news/article.cfm?c_id=26&objectid=10690687&pnum=6

It remains to be seen if the third correction addressed to @Moderation sees the light of day.

val majkus
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val majkus

Weird Richard! That’s more blatant editing than I’ve ever had!

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Weird and disturbing, I’m glad you’ve seen it.

At first I thought I’d made a typo until I realized I’d cut n pasted (plagiarized) from the original text so it had to have been edited.

I’m also documenting the saga in a “Scaremongering” thread at Kiwiblog in the hope that someone is watching.

http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2010/12/scare-mongering.html#comment-772153

No-one has commented so far. Flipper frequents that blog (mostly political I think), he comments here sometimes.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

This might be progress – but still weird
——————————————————————————————————————————
Nonentity (Mt Maunganui)
09:55AM Thursday, 09 Dec 2010

@Moderation

Correction.
“translates to a global temperature of 1.5 degree Celsius by 2020”

Please stop editing out the word “drop” from this correction.
————————————————————————————————————————–
Think I will leave it at that – it might be some auto-correct thing in the software.

Andy
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Andy

Might be a problem with the word “drop”

Reminds me of the classic database geeks cartoon

http://xkcd.com/327/

Andy
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Andy

Chris Huhne is possibly one of the most dangerous men in Britain today. The guy is barking mad, and leading the country’s energy policy to ruin.

Turing
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Turing

Why did BL use an estimate for the end of November, why not wait for data then redo the figure then release it? The assertion that the work of McLean et al has been suppressed is ludicrous, the link between SOI and global temperatures has been well accepted by climatologist for a long time now, it was just some of their conclusion relating to AGW that were disputed. BL’s plot says a bit about variability on monthly to seasonal scales but says very very little about AGW.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

“The assertion that the work of McLean et al has been suppressed is ludicrous” See:- How we were censored by Bob Carter and John McLean CENSORSHIP AT AGU: SCIENTISTS DENIED THE RIGHT OF REPLY by J. McLean, C.R. de Freitas, and R.M. Carter | March 29, 2010 https://www.climateconversation.org.nz/2010/11/climategate-a-year-old-and-still-going-strong/#comment-29823 “BLs plot says a bit about variability on monthly to seasonal scales but says very very little about AGW.” But you can bet it wont be used as an AGW poster icon to advertise CO2-Temperature correlations. What McLean, de Freitas and Carter have shown is that an unpaid non-climatological person like Bryan Leyland can use their work in conjunction with historical metrics to make a successful short-term climate prediction that is beyond the capability of AGW-wired climate models and national climate specialists with a warm bias. The same has happened in Australia with CSIRO’s unfortunate SEACI study using climate models only to be completely outdone by one person – Ian Holtom using a similar method to Leyland. See:- WHAT IS THE MAIN FACTOR CONTROLLING THE MURRAY DARLING BASIN SYSTEM RAINFALL (SOUTH QLD-NEW SOUTH WALES-VICTORIA & SOUTH AUSTRALIA AREAS)? Rainfall in the vast Murray Darling Basin… Read more »

Andy
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Andy

It’s getting cold for sure.

Global Warming Meets Its Stalingrad Cold Of The Century

The homeless are freezing to death, schools are closing, air traffic is paralyzed, flights cancelled, temperatures plummeting to -20C, winds up to 60 km/hr making windchill feel like -40C, autobahns and motorways are blocked by drifting snow, motorists stranded, trains are disrupted thats the ugly winter reality today in Germany. Weve been seeing similar headlines in the UK and throughout all of Scandinavia. Global warming has met its Stalingrad.

http://notrickszone.com/2010/12/01/global-warming-meets-its-stalingrad-cold-of-the-century/

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

“NIWA, where are you?” Here they are, except they can’t see the sun for the CO2. ——————————————————————————————————————– Sun not CO2 the culprit DAVID IVORY July 19th 2010, Dr David Ivory is a Balclutha-based retired university teacher, scientist and senior United Nations staff member. His research interest has been in the general area of environmental (climatic) effects on biological processes. David Ivory argues the variation in energy received from the sun has a much greater effect on global temperature balance than the effect of greenhouse gases. [Snip] The greenhouse gas theory claims that increasing greenhouse gases restricts thermal energy out to the point that the energy balance is positively affected and therefore the earth warms. The greenhouse gas theory of global warming, however, is only a very recent proposition in earth time, relating to the period of time since the industrial revolution. It does not explain the reasons for the earth warming and cooling during the millennia of its existence. The alternative point of view held by a very large number of scientists is that the variation in energy received from the sun has a much greater effect on global temperature balance than the… Read more »

val majkus
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val majkus

I’m afraid our Govt is very keen to introduce a carbon tax even though it’s not in step with what’s currently happening in the world but then we’re isolated. I understand in Europe climate change is being blamed by the warmists for the freezing start to winter and people there are asking when this warming cooling is going to stop

Gary
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Gary

I bet the graph has been put together with out adding corrections.
So much for the ETHICAL public servants we have employed in this country to advise our politicians.
As for the politicians, remember we are the employers.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

By searching Google images for: sunspots temperature SOI, I found pages of plots well worth browsing. Includes:-

* Bryan Leyland’s extended plot of that in the post above with the note “If solar effects such as sunspots drive the climate, 2010 will be the beginning of a long-term cooling trend”

http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/graphs/soi/mclean-soi-shift-2010.jpg

* Combinations of PDO, AMO and SOI that best match temp variations not explained by IPCC models.

http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/IPCC-17-model-20th-Century-vs-HadCRUT3-residuals-vs-PDO-AMO-SOI-fit-large.jpg

Also search: sunspot cycle length temperature

* Sunspot cycle length, temperature anomaly, CO2 concentration

http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/GW_Nutshell_files/image040.jpg

Obviously in that plot, CO2 is not a candidate to explain the 1940s warming.

Search:sunspot number sea surface temperature

* Sunspot number, global mean SST

http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/GW_Nutshell_files/image043.jpg

Search: arctic solar irradiance temperature

* Solar activity, Arctic air temperature, world hydrocarbon use (gas, oil, coal)

http://www.oism.org/pproject/Slides/Presentation/Slide3.png

The last plot makes a complete mockery of any claimed fossil fuel use – global warming correlation because AGW is supposed to warm the Arctic predominately..Clearly, there is nil carbon/temperature correlation in the Arctic; solar activity correlates perfectly however.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Arctic Cooling /Warming Due To Ocean Oscillations (PDO + AMO Index) versus CO2 Levels

http://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a010536b58035970c0120a5f34862970b-800wi

And the winner is?

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

UAH Tropics Temps Modeled on Nino 3.4, AMO and CO2 where CO2 = 0.21 LN (CO2 ppm)

http://img338.imageshack.us/img338/1889/uahtropicsmodeloct10.png

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Tropical cloud cover – Global surface air temperatrure

http://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2010/11/isccp-temp.jpg

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

4. Cosmic Radiation, Solar Wind, and Global Cloud Coverage

The most convincing argument yet, supporting a strong impact of the suns activity on climate change, is a direct connection between cloud coverage and cosmic rays, discovered by H. Svensmark and E. Friis-Christensen [111] in 1996. It is shown in Figure 6. Clouds have a hundred times stronger effect on weather and climate than carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Even if the atmospheres CO2 content doubled, its effect would be cancelled out if the cloud cover expanded by 1%, as shown by H. E. Landsberg [53]

Continues…………….

From

SOLAR ACTIVITY: A DOMINANT FACTOR IN CLIMATE DYNAMICS

by Dr Theodor Landscheidt

http://www.john-daly.com/solar/solar.htm

Andy
Guest
Andy

Piers Corbyn reckons it could become one of the coldest winters for 100 years in Europe

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHPooN0DZ5Y&feature=player_embedded#

Remember, Corbyn got banned from placing bets on the weather by William Hill, because he got it right too often.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

The SOI was used by John L. Daly (22 Nov 1998) to make a successful prediction. Remember the comments in the Climategate emails when John Daly died ——————————————————————————————————————— And now to prediction Based on the the assumption that the Southern Oscillation is the primary driver of year-to-year global temperature, with a 6 to 9 month lag time, we can now predict that since the SOI has now gone sharply into La Nia mode in the last 6 months, global temperature will follow (with the predicted time lag) and fall to below the zero line (the long term average of temperature) in the next few months. The latest monthly value for temperature was +0.33C in October 1998, after reaching a peak of +0.72C in April. Since the SOI moved into La Nia mode in June, we can expect global temperature to fall below the zero line by March 1999. John L. Daly (22 Nov 1998) Update: 20th March 2000 Since writing the above article over 15 months ago, global temperature did indeed fall below the long-term average by March 1999. Since then, the earth has continued in La Nia mode with consequent below-average temperatures… Read more »

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