Anthropogenic ocean heating Part 1

Skeptical Science offside

Introduction

Anthropogenic attribution to sea level rise and ocean heat accumulation relies on there being a verified mechanism or process by which rising anthropogenic greenhouse gas (aGHG) emissions impute heat to the ocean. John Cook’s Skeptical Science has been promoting one such posited mechanism in particular as explaining the accumulation of heat in the ocean over the last 40 years or so, the most prominent example being How Increasing Carbon Dioxide Heats The Ocean, posted in 2011 by Rob Painting. That post adapts a 2006 Real Climate article by Professor Peter Minnett, Why greenhouse gases heat the ocean, where an enhanced ocean surface insulation effect was posited.

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…with attractive formatting and with all the references provided as working links.

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You can read the whole article here, but it lacks most of the formatting (which aids understanding) and all of the links (which are provided to assist understanding and to justify what is said). I apologise for any inconvenience this causes, but it takes a long time to convert the word document into the particular html format required by WordPress and to copy each link. So I haven’t done it yet. I’ve converted it to a “standalone” html page so you have access to the links. – RT

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Call for calm over hot, rising seas

underwater light

Richard Cumming takes a look at recent observational data on two topics often raised and guaranteed to cause concern. They are used both to “prove” the existence of rapid warming and as an example of the ills soon to befall us if we don’t prevent them. But both uses fail on a cool examination of the facts. The Climate Conversation Group calls for calm to prevent public hysteria.

Recent global mean sea level and ocean heat content trends

UPDATE 31 JAN 2011

“The sea level continues to rise” is a familiar refrain, but the AGW hypothesis, along with the IPCC AR4, both predict an accelerating rate of rise in the global mean sea level. The IPCC prediction is simply:

“Anthropogenic forcing is also expected to produce an accelerating rate of sea level rise.”

That sea levels are rising is undisputed, but what are the recent trends of both mean sea level (MSL) and its companion, ocean heat content (OHC)? Is MSL accelerating in accordance with the predictions?

Cumulative sea level change from 1905 to 2000, adapted from Holgate (2007), shows a steadily decelerating trend over the period: Continue Reading →

NZ vs S. Hemisphere temperatures

The “Seven-Station Series” (7SS) constituting the official New Zealand Temperature Record (NZTR) is analysed and compared with the Southern Hemisphere (SH) temperature record using an interesting new data analysis technique called Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD).

UPDATE 1, 10 JAN 2011, 22:28 NZDT

Analysis of temperature trends usually employs extrinsic data smoothing techniques such as regression, moving average and Fourier filtering, but there is a more appropriate technique available.

Empirical mode decomposition (EMD) is an intrinsic data analysis technique now being used across a number of disciplines, including climatology. You can find out more from these two background papers: On the trend, detrending, and variability of nonlinear and nonstationary time series (Wu et al., 2007)(pdf) and Analysis of Temperature Change under Global Warming Impact using Empirical Mode Decomposition (Molla et al., 2007)(pdf). If you want to study EMD in detail, there’s a lot of help available — even a free command line utility.

EMD uses a sifting algorithm that filters the data until an overall adaptive trend (monotonic residual) is revealed. The first paper linked above shows how a decadal trend was also extracted from the global record but the 100-year 7SS time-frame used here is too short to do the same. A longer 7SS record would probably reveal an intermediate decadal trend similar to that presented plus an overall trend that cannot be extracted (by this author) from the 7SS at its current length. Continue Reading →

NZ ETS: Analytic Negligence

blue sky

Our approach

The reality of political decision-making is that much of it is driven by the bevy of backroom advisers retained by the government for the purpose of providing sound, unbiased and well-researched information as the basis on which to make the aforesaid decisions. This group of people are at the forefront of policy formation and much of the research and analysis by them is economic in nature.

What better place then, to go looking for an example of economic analysis to gauge the level of analytical critique directed at the NZ ETS, than the Institute of Policy Studies at Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand?

A convenient example that addresses an ETS issue “Free Allocation in the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme A Critical Analysis” Policy Quarterly – Volume 6, Issue 2, February 2010, by Christina Hood will do nicely. The author has impeccable credentials and presents some perfect material for us to gain an insight into the sphere of policy influence in respect to climate change policy. It should be noted that the article has been sourced from outside of the stream that would normally be compiled into executive summary for ministerial consideration, but it is not out of the realm of possibility that an article such as this may gain some traction on the strength of its source — hence the caveat next. Continue Reading →

Call a monkey

mosquito sucking blood

Powaqqatsi is an Uto-Aztecan word from the language of the Hopi people of northeastern Arizona, for a parasitic spirit that draws sustenance from human life. Powaqqatsi: Life in Transformation was an experimental Godfrey Reggio film portraying, in vivid imagery, lives ebbing away from the sheer drudgery of day-to-day work, mainly in third-world countries, as if possessed by the spirit of Powaqqatsi.

The earth is inhabited by another spirit that saps the life-blood of nations with a voracious appetite – a parasitic spirit from the realm of Powaqqatsi. It pervades the halls of governments, national institutions and global organisations, wreathing its way into the minds of rulers, destroying their ability to function normally. Afflicting, haunting and mentally encumbering them with the debilitating power of a Powaqqatsi kindred spirit, deceiving and deluding its victims into believing its illusions and whisperings.

This insidious parasitic spirit changes name and guise in bewildering transformations that defy efforts to subdue it and break its iron grip on leaders and followers, rich and poor, slave and free. It demands sacrifice and subjugation, obedience and oblation, ritual and reparation, but it is never satisfied. There is always another demand to be satisfied.

The world’s leaders know their lives are at the behest of the spirit. They resent its power over them and desperately seek the elixir that will free them from subservience to it. They consult their advisers, but to no avail. The spirit inhibits the faculties of leaders and advisers alike, capturing reason.

But not everyone has fallen for the wiles of the parasite spirit. Some have discovered the key that unshackles minds from subjection to it: a simple application of human intuition and observation, combined with techniques of measurement and calculation, some of which are so simple that “even a monkey can do it”. There’s Marcel, Tweeter, Watts and Copeland, SOI past and present; monkey means, providing the sought-after antidote to the evil spirit of foolishness that has beset our world, sucking sense from otherwise sensible people.

So help is at hand for those who labour under the hypnosis of Powaqqatsi’s pal.

Call a monkey – here’s the number:

0800 MONKEY

Call now.