NZ ETS: Analytic Negligence

blue sky

Our approach

The reality of political decision-making is that much of it is driven by the bevy of backroom advisers retained by the government for the purpose of providing sound, unbiased and well-researched information as the basis on which to make the aforesaid decisions. This group of people are at the forefront of policy formation and much of the research and analysis by them is economic in nature.

What better place then, to go looking for an example of economic analysis to gauge the level of analytical critique directed at the NZ ETS, than the Institute of Policy Studies at Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand?

A convenient example that addresses an ETS issue “Free Allocation in the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme A Critical Analysis” Policy Quarterly – Volume 6, Issue 2, February 2010, by Christina Hood will do nicely. The author has impeccable credentials and presents some perfect material for us to gain an insight into the sphere of policy influence in respect to climate change policy. It should be noted that the article has been sourced from outside of the stream that would normally be compiled into executive summary for ministerial consideration, but it is not out of the realm of possibility that an article such as this may gain some traction on the strength of its source — hence the caveat next.

A caveat

The selection of Christina Hood’s article is not to take issue with Christina specifically but with the approach to economic analysis of the ETS generally. The root cause of the lack of consideration given to wider scenario possibilities lies with scientific deficiencies in the ETS basis and governmental reluctance to investigate the alternatives. It would be unfair to berate those undertaking economic analysis of the ETS for blithely accepting the consensus findings of another professional group (climate science), but it does reveal shortcomings in critical thinking.

It must be assumed that Christina still wields influence at a high level after a stint as policy adviser to the minister for energy and climate change issues during 2002–2005; she is also not without scientific understanding because her resume includes a PhD in physics. I hope that, since selling her soul to the climate change spectre in exchange for pieces of policy-peer recognition (if not silver), Christina has spent time in monastic solitude seeking redemption. I am also hopeful that her contemplation will in time produce an outpouring of literary penance couched in an extended economic analysis and comparison of alternative New Zealand economic scenarios with and without an ETS (or carbon tax), based on alternative hypotheses of anthropogenic carbon and natural cycle climate drivers.

Most revealing in that analysis would be the budget foregone in order to feed the appetite of the voracious climate change beast. For example, what is the opportunity cost to health, education or foreign aid due to the money-multiplier lost to the productive economy and instead allocated to ETS carbon credit purchase and sector protection or subsidy over the next 50 years?

What we must ignore for now

If we are looking for an objective approach we will have to ignore what seems to be the author’s premise that anthropogenic carbon emissions are the most significant climate driver and therefore the assumption of that basis goes without saying. We will also overlook the petulant introduction “Submitters were given two weeks to make written submissions, and some were asked to appear for oral submissions with only a few hours notice. Very little economic analysis of the legislation was released by the government at the time or has been since.” If the critique following the introduction in response to the minimal analysis had explored the differences of economic impact in an economy with and without an ETS, then the statement would gain validity, but if the major climate driver is unquestionably anthropogenic without acknowledgement that there might be other possibilities, then who cares what analysis is done because the scheme will wreak economic havoc anyway, in whatever configuration on an invalid basis. Tweaking here and there to make a market intervention more palatable to economic purists won’t change that.

Next we will overlook the author’s assertion that an emissions price of NZ$100 per tonne by 2050 is “more plausible” than NZ$50. This statement was made in the context of $200 billion foregone government revenue by 2050 from free allocation of units, but has the author really thought about what a $100 price on emissions means to New Zealand’s international competitiveness and GDP, and how that price will be achieved (by market means?)?

Finally, we will overlook the economic niceties that the author bemoans have been circumvented by the protection and subsidy of industry and agriculture enacted in the latest incarnation of the ETS. It is a matter of course that a government will seek ways to do that when it gained its right to govern via a manifesto aligned to the interests of those same sectors. In other words, votes trump economic theory.

The ingrained negligence

Billions of dollars have been sunk globally in the financial black hole of anthropogenic climate change that could otherwise have been invested productively for the future wealth of nations. The range of beneficiaries of this money-spinner is mind boggling and the first that come to most minds are climate scientists. But consider for a moment the suppliers of supercomputing facilities world-wide, including architecture, building construction, air conditioning and computers. These facilities are duplicated over and over as the number of IPCC climate model submissions attest.

The last decade has exposed the negligence of climate modellers to present to the world the alternative scenarios of future climate using realistic natural climate drivers because their anthropogenically forced outputs have not tracked the observed conditions of the last decade and have been worse than useless as a basis of infrastructure planning, particularly in the UK and Australia.

Economists, whether government employed or contracted, are also beneficiaries but squarely positioned to have major influence on the ministerial decision-making process — i.e., they have power. With power, though, comes responsibility. What we have witnessed in the formulation of the ETS is an abdication of responsibility by those in the best position to speak up on behalf of a public far from the reins of power when decisions with profound consequences for the New Zealand economy and significant impositions at a personal level were being made.

Economic analysis that does not incorporate the spectrum of sensibly anticipated risks is negligent, but what do we see? Just the one anthropogenic scenario with some variations to provide the illusion of multiple scenarios provided by climate science and quiescence from economists. If there were misgivings in the economic fraternity as to the veracity of the anthropogenic assumption and the possibility of erroneous economic modelling, then either they were not voiced or they were voiced only in passing — they were certainly not laid out in the public domain.

The propensity of economic analysts to abdicate responsibility is evidenced in another report “Economic modelling of New Zealand climate change policy” by NZIER – Infometrics. Their rider: “While every effort is made by Infometrics to ensure that the information, opinions and forecasts provided to the client are accurate and reliable, Infometrics shall not be liable for any adverse consequences of the client’s decisions made in reliance of any report provided by Infometrics, nor shall Infometrics be held to have given or implied any warranty as to whether any report provided by Infometrics will assist in the performance of the client’s functions.” Here’s our work, pay us, but don’t hold us accountable to it. It is perhaps fortunate that these people are not brain surgeons or car mechanics, though their proximity to the nation’s economic reins is tragic.

Our look at Christina Hood’s article reveals an analyst who is concerned only with how the ETS stacks up when economic theory is applied to it but ignores the very basis of the analysis and how the introduction of an obvious alternative would nullify the need for possibly hundreds of billions of dollars being syphoned from the long-term productive economy of New Zealand. This is negligence at any level – professional, academic, official or in the forum of the Institute of Policy Studies.

Once we omit from our look at the report what we must ignore for the sake of objectivity, there is very little left for our own critique until we come to the last paragraph: “The first scheduled review of the scheme is in 2011. As the ETS will only be coming into operation at this time, there will be a temptation for this review to be cursory. Instead, the review provides an opportunity for the proper cost-benefit analyses to be undertaken to inform decisions on how ETS revenues should be best allocated for the benefit of New Zealand as a whole.”

But no — the opportunity is of a vastly different nature.

An opportunity for belated consideration of a natural climate driver hypothesis

The New Zealand ETS is scheduled for review in 2011. Much has happened in the last 14 months to warrant an objective scrutiny of the scientific and economic justification for it that has not been carried out to date. The IPCC version of climate change has been given right of passage to the exclusion of competing climate driver hypotheses. Now more than ever, the anthropogenic assumption must be called into question in light of the spectacular failure of national institutions, notably the UK Met Office and CSIRO, to provide climate scenarios that even remotely resemble what the respective populations of Britain and Australia are grappling with.

That failure is highlighted by the success of individuals operating in a commercial environment to do what national institutions cannot — make useful forecasts using natural climate drivers as their mainstay. It is of concern that our National Institution of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) are now using “emissions scenarios” as the basis of long-term climate prediction when that approach is making equivalent overseas institutions a global laughing stock. Why join them?

When the reality of an alternative natural climate driver scenario is finally introduced to economic analysis of the ETS, the hundreds of millions of misallocated resource dollars will be immediately returned to their rightful place economically and the analytic negligence of the past will be rectified.

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Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

In “ETS and Carbon Taxes” Andy made the salient observation Andy says: December 23, 2010 at 8:45 pm The non-discounted price for CO2 will be set by the market, as I am led to understand. To date, no one has explained to me how this market price is reached and how NZ businesses are supposed to plan for it. https://www.climateconversation.org.nz/open-threads/politics/ets-and-carbon-taxes-001/#comment-33353 This raises all sorts of issues, some I’ve tried to address in reply. Richard C (NZ) says: December 24, 2010 at 9:02 am The “market” being European.in lieu of any other, so the NZ price would be aligned to that I’m guessing. First problem being (for them), that the “market” price wont reach the threshold that makes any difference which seems to be in excess of $100. This because coal is so cheap relatively. Next problem being (for us), is what is known euphemistically as “carbon leakage”. This is the inevitable situation where commercial operators hightail it out of the country to somewhere (anywhere) that the tax is not imposed. “Carbon leakage” is not observed in economic modelling until emissions prices are well over AU$200/ tCO2, so we can breathe a sigh of… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

From New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS) Review 2011 — Terms of Reference The review panel should not focus on: a. whether an emissions trading scheme is the most appropriate response to climate change for New Zealand; b. whether New Zealand should be taking action on climate change; and c. climate change measures outside of the NZ ETS (except to the extent that a – c above raise broader issues about the best means of meeting New Zealand’s international obligations). Considerations In considering the matters set out in section 160(5) and the area of focus and issues to which particular attention is to be given, and in preparing its report, the review panel will take into account the effectiveness and efficiency of the NZ ETS giving particular attention to the following factors: a. short term costs, competition and competitiveness impacts – the costs for New Zealand and associated impacts on the competitiveness of its firms between now and 2020; b. administrative efficiency including transaction costs c. impacts on long-term economic resilience – the long-term risks and opportunities for New Zealand’s economic resilience; d. environmental integrity – the impact on New Zealand’s domestic… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Dr Christina Hood’s “Submission to the Finance and Expenditure Select Committee on the
Climate Change Response (Moderated Emissions Trading) Amendment Bill”

http://www.parliament.nz/NR/rdonlyres/6C882B6B-0972-4EFF-A0F6-EB5D5789FB19/115616/49SCFE_EVI_00DBHOH_BILL9597_1_A14707_DrChristinaHo.pdf

Of interest

Figure 1. In the existing legislation, free allocation phases out by 2030
leaving the government with surplus units to sell2.

Christina’s submission (See Figure 2)

2.5 With this Bill, the government has chosen to allocate 100% of the
surplus units as increased free subsidies to industry and agriculture. To 2030,
this amounts to a $21 billion wealth transfer from taxpayers to these
subsidised sectors. After 2030, the scheme is not fiscally neutral but is in
deficit: the government would have to purchase units offshore to maintain the
level of subsidy specified in the Bill.

Also see subsidy costs Figure 4.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

State run Indian companies want AU coal (TATA already there). No worries about carbon prices for them but plenty for Glenbrook Steel NZ.
—————————————————————————————————————————-
TATA Steel said today it is studying Rio Tinto’s $3.9 billion bid for Riversdale Mining, as it reviews alternatives to the offer.

Tata Steel, which has a 24 per cent stake in Riversdale, said in a regulatory filing that it will “evaluate the takeover bid in the context of other alternatives available to Tata Steel.”

Earlier today, International Coal Ventures said it has hired Citibank to advise on a counterbid to Rio Tinto’s $16-a-share offer for Riversdale Mining.

“We have appointed Citibank. The merchant bank will submit its report in the next two weeks, based on which we will take a call on counter-bidding for Riversdale,” chairman C.S. Verma told reporters.

ICVL is a joint venture between five state-run Indian companies — Steel Authority of India, NTPC, NMDC, Rashtriya Ispat Nigam and Coal India.

Continues…………..

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/citi-adviser-to-icvl-on-riversdale-bid/story-e6frg9e6-1225975721708

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

ETS needs teeth, Labour says

1:50 PM Friday Dec 24, 2010 – NZH

The Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) needs to be given “a set of teeth” by the panel that is reviewing it, the Labour Party says.

Climate Change Minister Nick Smith yesterday announced the panel which will study the way the ETS is working and whether it should continue to full implementation.

The scheme makes industries pay for some of their greenhouse gas emissions and is being introduced in stages.

Labour’s climate change spokesman Charles Chauvel said today it should be fully implemented immediately.

“If New Zealand wants to avoid burning a lot of gas to generate electricity, to achieve a long-term turnaround in deforestation and bring about changes in consumer behaviour around energy and transport use we need a stronger ETS,” he said.

“And we need the revenues from the scheme to pay to help bring about these changes, rather than to provide an ongoing subsidy to polluters, as the ETS currently does.”

Continues……..
—————————————————————————————————————————–
The review panel will start work in February 2011.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

“Labour’s climate change spokesman Charles Chauvel said today it should be fully implemented immediately.”

That would mean a carbon price of NZ$50.

Last trades on the European Climate Exchange (ECX)

ECX CER Futures (NZ$ @ 0.5631)

Dec 2011 …..€11.17 …..(~NZ$19.83) …..Vol 1080

Dec 2012 …..€10.89 …..(~NZ$19.33) …..Vol 3,386

Mar 2013 …..€11.14 …..(~NZ$19.78) …..Vol 55

https://www.theice.com/marketdata/reports/ReportCenter.shtml?reportId=10&contractKey=81

Through its ECX product suite, ICE Futures Europe is the leading global marketplace for trading carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

ICE Futures Europe currently offers derivative contracts on three types of carbon credit: ICE ECX EU allowances (EUAs), ICE ECX Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) and the world’s first ICE ECX Emissions Reductions Units (ERUs).

https://www.theice.com/productguide/ProductGroupHierarchy.shtml?groupDetail=&group.groupId=19

So Chauvel wants to arbitrarily price 2011 carbon NZ$30.22 higher than the Mar 2013 market price.on low volume and NZ$30.67 higher than the Dec 2012 market price at higher volume

These idiots make it up as they go along.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Chauvel is swimming against the tide

“CO2 emissions trading volumes have experienced strong growth. In 2009 volumes surpassed 5 billion tonnes of CO2 and equivalent, and 2010 volumes passed the 5 billion tonne mark early in the second half. ”

5 billion tonnes equates to NZ$97.5 billion @ NZ$19.50 per tonne

Note that the price is $5.50 LESS than the current NZ price of $25.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

NZ coal consumption for year to Sept 2008 3.12Mt

3.12 x 0.746 = 2.328 Mt of carbon

2.328 x 3.7 = 8.61 Mt of CO2

NZ$ ETS charge to the NZ economy per year for coal alone

@ 19.50 per tonne…..$167,895,000

@ 25.00 per tonne…..$215,250,000

@ 50.00 per tonne…..$430,500,000

@ 100.00 per tonne…..$861,000,000

Completely unnecessary @ any rate because CO2 is not the climate driver.

But Charles Chauvel wants an extra $215,250,000 from coal alone.

Yeah right.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

@ NZ$50.00 per tonne for CO2 emissions and 3.12 Mt coal consumption per year.

NZ$4.3 billion over 10 years just from coal.

This is freaking madness.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

What the NZ ETS means in costs to the major coal users.

Using conv factor 2.7596 (coal in tonnes to CO2 in tonnes)

Fonterra ………..1,241,826 tonnes CO2 pa (450,000 tonnes coal)

@ 19.50 .$24.2 million pa

@ $25 …$31.0 million pa

@ $50 …$62.0 million pa

Glenbrook……..2,207,692 tonnes CO2 pa (800,000 tonnes coal)

@ 19.50 ..$43.0 million pa

@ $25 ….$55.2 million pa

@ $50 …$110.4 million pa

For comparison
Domestic air travel ..915,000 tonnes CO2 pa (from Greenpeace ??)

@ 19.50 .$17.8 million pa

@ $25 …$22.9 million pa

@ $50 …$45.8 million pa

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

From “Economic modelling of New Zealand climate change policy”

“We start from the premise that New Zealand continues to be part of future international climate change agreements. New Zealand signing up to Kyoto and any subsequent international agreement results in a net welfare loss, no matter which instrument is used to account for our liability.2 We have been asked to determine the least cost approach to meeting these obligations – that is, to identify the instrument(s) that minimize this welfare loss.”

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

What the NZ ETS means in costs to the major coal users (cont from above)

Huntly ………..3,794,450 tonnes CO2 pa (1,375,000 tonnes coal est)

@ 19.50 …$74.0 million pa

@ $25 …..$94.9 million pa

@ $50 …$189.7 million pa

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Newcastle AU power station coal currently @ ~NZ$146 tonne.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

How the govt calculates emissions from calorific value and energy (91.20 ktCO2/PJ) i.e.Not a conversion factor from weight of coal to weight of CO2.

Emission factors – solid fuels

In previous inventory submissions, New Zealand’s emissions from coal combustion in the public electricity and heat production subcategory were calculated using the emission factor for sub-bituminous coal of 92.99 kt CO2/PJ (Baines, 1993). In 2008, the electricity generator contacted the Ministry of Economic Development to request an update of this value. The assumption was made that using the overall sub-bituminous value for the public electricity and heat production subcategory (91.20 ktCO2/PJ) is consistent with other coal burning activities in New Zealand. This updated emission factor is included for the whole time series (1990–2007) for the public electricity and heat production subcategory.

New Zealand’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990–2007

http://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/climate/greenhouse-gas-inventory-2009/html/page3.html

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Fonterra’s “Submission to the Finance and Expenditure Select Committee on the Climate Change Response (Moderated Emissions Trading) Amendment Bill” http://www.parliament.nz/NR/rdonlyres/F793E11E-A3EE-45D2-A983-59E8783D47D3/115724/49SCFE_EVI_00DBHOH_BILL9597_1_A14811_Fonterra_1.pdf Bill Still Falls Short In Key Areas 4 The proposed amendments to the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS) fall short of their objective to reduce the risk of emission leakages, and provide greater certainty for economic growth. Specifically Fonterra prioritises in this submission three aspects of the scheme that it wishes to bring to the Select Committee’s attention: 4.1 The current eligibility thresholds will preclude Fonterra from receiving an allocation for its manufacturing emissions. The scheme will expose the New Zealand dairy industry to punitive costs ahead of offshore competitors, resulting in economic leakage and risking global emission increases. Milk production, dairy manufacturing and transportation of milk are part of an integrated supply chain. Manufacturing cost increases will be passed back to farmers and form part of a cumulative impact on farm economics and therefore output1. These costs must be considered alongside other cost increases in the dairy supply chain to address the competitive impacts for dairy production. It is farmers who ultimately determine whether dairy output remains at business as… Read more »

Mike Jowsey
Guest
Mike Jowsey

They need the money to pay the Green Fund in order to fund the New World Order. If you have a couple of hours over the holidays, recommended viewing: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=1070329053600562261#

It gets real interesting from about the 40 min mark. Food for thought, eh.

Merry Christmas Richard C.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

From Fonterra’s submission to “Ministerial Review of Electricity Market Performance” Sept 2009

Whilst generation from renewable sources is making an increasing contribution to the energy mix, globally the technologies of choice are combined cycle gas turbine and coal.

We are of the view that dynamic efficiency can only be maximised if energy policy is agnostic as to generation technology and that concerns about environmental externalities are best addressed through appropriate policy instruments that price the externalities taking account of the local or global nature of the externalities, e.g. cap and trade schemes for greenhouse gases.
—————————————————————————————————————————–
CO2 is an externality – apparently

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Thanks Mike and I hope you have a peaceful Christmas (or boisterous if you wish). Me, I’m big on peaceful nowadays.

I’m not a video fan to be honest – I’ll wait for the book.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Business organisations and climate change

Greenhouse Policy Coalition

The Greenhouse Policy Coalition was formed in 1996, and represented almost all of New Zealand’s largest users of power. Its members included New Zealand Steel, New Zealand Aluminium Smelters, Solid Energy, Fonterra, Methanex New Zealand and four pulp and paper manufacturers.

In 2009 the coalition argued that implementing the Kyoto Protocol on climate change was a significant risk to New Zealand’s economy. It called for a moderate and measured response by government.

http://www.teara.govt.nz/en/employer-and-business-organisations/6
——————————————————————————————————————–
Big users

In 2008 Rio Tinto Zinc, owner of the Bluff aluminium smelter, and New Zealand Steel, owner of the Glenbrook steel mill, told government that their New Zealand businesses would become uneconomic if they had to pay for emissions when competitors overseas did not. The companies talked of ceasing to invest in and closing their New Zealand operations. Shown here is Ray Deacon of Rio Tinto Alcan NZ, talking to the parliamentary select committee considering climate-change legislation in 2008. In the background is Xiaoling Liu, president of Rio Tinto Alcan’s Primary Metal Asia Pacific region. A re-worked emissions trading scheme, introduced in 2009, substantially reduced industry responsibility and costs, and included a capped price for carbon units.

http://www.teara.govt.nz/en/employer-and-business-organisations/6/5?setlang=mi

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Greenhouse Policy Coalition

http://www.gpcnz.co.nz/

New Submissions

* GPC submission on NZES and NZEECS
* GPC submission on Regulatory Responsibility Bill
* GPC Submission to Minister on an emission reduction target by 2020
* Infometrics analysis of cost of 40% emission reduction target for NZ
* Castalia Peer Review of NZIER/Infometics economic modeling for ETS Review
* GPC Submission to Select Committee Review of ETS – April 2009

NZ Emissions Trading Scheme fact sheet

http://www.gpcnz.co.nz/Site/News_Releases/ETS_fact_sheet.aspx

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

“net welfare loss” ?

Isn’t all this FOR our welfare ?

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Snippet from NZ Emissions Trading Scheme fact sheet

· New Zealand Governments do not like using subsidies, while the EU is much more ready to use them, e.g. it provided 2.9 billion euros of support to coal mines in 2008 and is currently discussing whether to continue this sort of assistance.

Andy
Guest
Andy

Presumably these high prices of CO2 would mean extra big profits for the electricity companies.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Bizarre! The GPC website contains no AGW rebuttals or. peer reviewed papers, CCG is light years ahead and look at the resources they have at their disposal. They got nothin – what a bunch of wimps.

This is their science “summary”:-

The Science – summary

“There are still some uncertainties regarding the science and impacts of climate change. Climate change policy continues to develop, however, so that is the main focus for the Greenhouse Policy Coalition. The GPC will continue to monitor the science issues.”

They link to the UNFCCC and IPCC (Huh???)

Gaarrrrhhh!!!!!!

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

The carbon price is a penalty for say Genesis that operates Huntly, so it’s a loss for them – not a profit.

The thermal penalties must raise wholesale market prices overall especially in dry years so that hydro and other renewables profit then (if they’ve got the water and wind that is).

But hydro in New Zealand is not increasing anywhere near the rate of thermal increase so the penalty hits any new generation basically (except for wind) because our hydro options are near an end.

Once the planet is saved and NZ Steel and Bluff Aluminium have shut down and gone to India we will have lots of surplus power so prices should come down significantly i.e. they will have to give it away and a good thing because we wont have jobs to pay for it.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Obviously if the wholesale price rises then Genesis will recover some (maybe all) of the loss. I doubt they would profit at all but it is a possibility. Their analysts should have all that worked out and modelled.

Increased wholesale electricity prices then flow on to retailer to consumer and to any activity that uses electricity so the consumer gets hit again e.g. refrigerated supermarket goods.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

“But hydro in New Zealand is not increasing anywhere near the rate of thermal increase”

See plot Thermal vs Hydro

http://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/climate/greenhouse-gas-inventory-2009/html/images/figure3-2-2.gif

Note the direct inverse relationship

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

From GPC NZ Emissions Trading Scheme fact sheet

“Not all exposed businesses will get free emission units. The food processing sector, for example, will receive little or no allocation. Fonterra, the country’s biggest export earner, has estimated that the ETS will cost it $38 million in the first year (1 July 2010 – 30 June 2011), rising to $107 million in 2015.”

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

From GPC NZ Emissions Trading Scheme fact sheet

“rather than keeping the 309 million Kyoto emission units for itself, the Government is allocating them to forest owners, and to energy intensive, trade-exposed companies to help the latter while they adjust to carbon pricing. This support is not a cost to the taxpayer as the Government is using units it received free through the Kyoto Protocol. The taxpayer faces no cost unless New Zealand’s Kyoto account for 2008-2012 is in deficit. As noted above, the current projection suggests New Zealand will have a Kyoto surplus.”
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i.e. Everyone’s complacent because much of the country is benefiting from the free allocation and disbursement of units. Not much fun for those sectors that missed out however.

But when the free allocation runs out – what then? See Dr Christina Hood’s submission below and article linked in the above post for the answer.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Fonterra ………..1,241,826 tonnes CO2 pa (450,000 tonnes coal)

@ 12.50 .$15.5 million pa

Effective price to 2012 – not 100% sure that Fonterra pays $12.50 or $25. Their own estimate of $38m in the first year indicates that perhaps it pays $25.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Glenbrook……..2,207,692 tonnes CO2 pa (800,000 tonnes coal)

@ 12.50 ..$27.6 million pa (Effective price to 2012)

Domestic air travel ..915,000 tonnes CO2 pa (from Greenpeace ??)

@ 12.50 .$11.4 million pa (Effective price to 2012)

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Huntly ………..3,794,450 tonnes CO2 pa (1,375,000 tonnes coal est)

@ 12.50 …$47.4 million pa (Effective price to 2012)

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

This figure should be reduced to account for the effective price of $12.50 from 2010 -2012 (some sectors still $25?).

Also using the effective price to 2012.

@ 12.50 per tonne…..$107,600,000 pa

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

“extended economic analysis and comparison of alternative New Zealand economic scenarios with and without an ETS”

The easy part of this is because “without” is almost a no-change scenario so most of the difference between “with” and “without an ETS” is just the incremental impact of all the $ quantification above.

The tricky part is making a realistic assessment of how much NZ would be penalized by the EU say if NZ was “without” an ETS and would there be a European consumer backlash? The criticism that the ETS is to protect European markets was long ago leveled at it in view of the fact that those markets are declining.

Also tricky is deciding if revenues gained from exports to emerging (developing and not subject to an ETS) markets would off-set the Euro penalties. There’s probably economic modeling of this somewhere but surely the penalties would be easily off-set by not having to pay the carbon tax (ETS) in the first place.

Mike Jowsey
Guest
Mike Jowsey

That’s a pity. Don’t think they are doing a book.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

This was probably a bit harsh without knowing where GPC stands so I emailed David Venables Executive Director Greenhouse Policy Coalition to find out.

His reply was that he did not have the time or other resources available to research and present a full examination of the science and that examining the pros and cons of the science is not really where GPC is in the debate. Also that successive governments have committed to doing something about climate change and it is GPC’s brief to make sure that what they do doesn’t ruin our economy and, in particular, major industrial employers

So I’ve obviously got it wrong but I do find it surprising that the basis of the ETS is not being attacked by them given the evidence contrary to the iPCC version of climate change.

I have provided David with links into as much of the CCG resources as I think he would need to see the contrary science without overloading him so at least he will have food for thought.

Andy
Guest
Andy

This doesn’t really surprise me at all. There are just playing consensus politics.
At some stage, reality will bite them in the bum

Piers Corbyn has made this interesting observation:

“This winter is like the battle of Stalingrad in the ‘Climate war’. It will be long and hard and the public will suffer until the failed pseudo-science of man-made climate change – which become like a religion – is defeated; and instead available proven solar-based advances in forecasting science are applied to reduce misery and save lives”.

http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=286&c=5

I don’t know if Piers’ science is correct, but he seems to have a much better strike rate than the Met Office.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Yes, Piers’ strike rate is 85% and that’s been verified by a peer reviewed study. He is also banned from gambling on weather forecasts because of that. But it’s not just Corbyn. The Watts and Copeland Sinusoidal Solar-Lunar Model has proved itself for Ian Holtom against CSIRO/BOM in Australia and there are other examples. Boris Johnson is taking an interest and I note that his article about Piers Corbyn “There’s a mini ice age coming, says man who beats weather experts” was top of the most read environmental articles in the Sydney Morning Herald for some time. I’m starting to think that this is the better card to play. There are literally hundreds of peer reviewed papers that can be presented but the opposition always finds a way to ignore them – not IPCC, not from “the team”, not in a “top” journal, physicists are not “real” climate scientists, not approved by RealClimate and not in their Wiki so it’s not “reputable etc. They also seem to require one catch-all paper that encapsulates every AGW rebuttal known to man and if that can’t be presented you lose. Never mind that there is not… Read more »

Gary Kerkin
Guest

And Piers Corbyn is not the only one. On this side of the world Ken Ring doesn’t do too badly – around 75% I am given to understand. Certainly the farmers in our part of the Waikato swear by him. If my Fieldays experience was anything to go by he was far more popular than the weather gnome (oops! Sorry, weather Ambassador). I understand Ring bases his predictions on the moon’s effects on the atmosphere – I guess somewhat akin to the effect on the oceans.

Mind you, I have always believed that the NZ Met Service does get it right 100% of the time – you just have to wait long enough.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Ken Ring is a new name to me. I’ve been following the forecasts of Renwick/Griffiths/NIWA/TV3 vs Weather Watch chief analyst Philip Duncan/NZ Herald in “Meteorology” here

https://www.climateconversation.org.nz/open-threads/climate/meteorology-001/#comment-31431

Maybe you could compare those with Ken Ring’s forecasts.

If you’ve got the time and inclination (I haven’t) you could also compare Ken Ring’s Snow Report 2010 to 2020

http://www.predictweather.com/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=261&type=home

with NIWA’s snow levels for the years 2030-2049 and 2080-2099.here

https://www.climateconversation.org.nz/open-threads/climate/meteorology-
001/#comment-32621

NIWA found:

* On average, at nearly all elevations, there will be a gradual decrease in snow as the century progresses.

The time frames don’t overlap but NIWA has fixed a trend that can be compared.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

BTW, NIWA used “emissions scenarios” for their snow level prediction.

Andy
Guest
Andy

NIWA are trying to predict the snow levels in NZ for 2080 2099?

Do they take us for idiots? There are actually real problems to be solved in this country, and these computer generated fantasies do not fit into this category.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

To be fair they were commissioned to do the work.by the Ski Areas Association of New Zealand

Caveat emptor.

Clarence
Guest
Clarence

Why should the financial penalties of the ETS continue beyond the expiry of the Kyoto commitment period on 31 December 2012? The chances of any second commitment period are now close to zero.

Much of the rationale for the ETS has always been based on the alleged liabilities of the Government (ie the taxpayers) to purchase carbon credits to meet Kyoto targets. The estimated cost of those foreign credits sits on the Government’s balance sheet as a very substantial contingent liability. The supportive NZIER/Infometrics modelling took as a given the ongoing life of such liabiities (until 2030), and justified the ETS as a means of reducing the outflows required to buy offshore credits.

The Ministry for the Environment’s Regulatory Impact Statement which accompanied the National-led Government’s 2009 amendment to the ETS, was trounced by Treasury for its total failure to comply with the RIA Handbook published at http://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/guidance/regulatory/impactanalysis.

Surely, the 2011 Review is a prime opportunity to overcome that departmental embarrassment and publish a complying RIS.

Richard Treadgold
Guest

Oh, how neat is that, Clarence! And any RIS must open the door to the “science” — the reason for having a response to “climate change” at all. Which has to go a long way to explaining why the government opted to ignore an RIS in the first place.

This reasoning gives the CSC a credible path to make ground-breaking submissions to the committee. It would be one of the first government forums anywhere to host a discussion of the science.

But might reason be permitted to prevail? Could true open-mindedness be achieved? Will the committee honour its democratic obligations or crush them again? “It’s not the despair, I can cope with the despair. It’s the hope!” (John Cleese, in Clockwise.)

Gary Kerkin
Guest

I don’t have the time either. Ring publishes a book annually and appropriate extracts are published in at least one farming magazine. Being rather niggardly (and not really needing it) I have never purchased a copy. I don’t know how far out he makes predictions.

Like Piers Corbyn he is subject to criticism and ad hominem attacks.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

“so the penalty hits any new generation basically (except for wind)”

What I mean here is that the penalty hits a significant amount of on-going new generation because the growth is coming from gas – not hydro.

There is wind and geothermal growth obviously but I was highlighting gas vs hydro.

And as Andy has shown us, even geothermal gets hit too.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

“That would mean a carbon price of NZ$50.”

I’m wrong here. He wants all sectors to pay $25 – not some paying $12.50.

This is wrong too:-

“So Chauvel wants to arbitrarily price 2011 carbon NZ$30.22 higher than the Mar 2013 market price.on low volume and NZ$30.67 higher than the Dec 2012 market price at higher volume”

Should be:-

So Chauvel wants to arbitrarily price 2011 carbon NZ$5.22 higher than the Mar 2013 market price.on low volume and NZ$5.66 higher than the Dec 2012 market price at higher volume

Doesn’t look nearly as bad now.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Clarence, your first point. A good article from the New York Times re the prospects of the Kyoto protocol here http://www.nytimes.com/cwire/2010/12/17/17climatewire-cancun-agreement-preserves-an-escape-hatch-f-38242.html?pagewanted=1 Second to last paragraph “The question, though, is what would take Kyoto’s place? Bledsoe argued that countries should be willing to take that discussion out of the United Nations and allow the big-emitting countries that are part of the Major Economies Forum or G20 to resolve those questions.” Worthwhile keeping in mind too, are the respective attitudes of the Ministries to the Cancun Agreements . Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade – done deal . “This document, and hence all decisions contained therein, was adopted by consensus by the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the unfccc at its sixteenth session in Cancun, Mexico. The COP comprises all UN Member States, hence when a COP decision is adopted there is no need for an annex containing signatories, nor is there a separate document.” . Ministry for the Environment – no deal . “It’s also worth noting that the Cancun Agreements do not constitute a draft treaty. Thus New Zealand, and 193 other countries have pledged support for the continuation of efforts to… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

“Alternative natural climate driver hypothesis and proof of success in prediction as opposed to the failure of CO2 forced predictions?” Like this Theodore Landscheidt predicted in 2003 that the current cooling would continue until 2030 “Analysis of the sun’s varying activity in the last two millennia indicates that contrary to the IPCC’s speculation about man-made global warming as high as 5.8°C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected. It is shown that minima in the secular Gleissberg cycle of solar activity, coinciding with periods of cool climate on Earth, are consistently linked to an 83-year cycle in the change of the rotary force driving the sun’s oscillatory motion about the centre of mass of the solar system. As the future course of this cycle and its amplitudes can be computed, it can be seen that the Gleissberg minimum around 2030 and another one around 2200 will be of the Maunder minimum type accompanied by severe cooling on Earth. This forecast should prove ‘skilful’ as other long-range forecasts of climate phenomena, based on cycles in the sun’s orbital motion, have… Read more »

Andy
Guest
Andy

This seems to be the thesis proposed by Piers Corbyn too.

Video at WUWT

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/27/piers-corbyn-goes-global-cooling/

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

New Little Ice Age Instead of Global Warming? by Dr. Theodor Landscheidt Schroeter Institute for Research in Cycles of Solar Activity Klammerfelsweg 5, 93449 Waldmuenchen, Germany 6. Forecasts of solar activity and climate confirm validity of solar motion cycles These theoretical considerations have been corroborated by practical results. Predictions based on cycles in the sun’s motion turned out to be correct. My long-range forecasts of precisely defined classes of energetic X-ray flares and strong geomagnetic storms, covering the period 1979 – 1985, reached an overall hit rate of 90 percent though such events show a very irregular distribution. These forecasts were checked by the Space Environment Center, Boulder, and the astronomers Gleissberg, Wöhl and Pfleiderer (Landscheidt, 1986; Landscheidt and Wöhl, 1986). Accumulations of strong geomagnetic storms around 1982 and 1990 were also correctly forecast several years before the events. I predicted, too, in 1984 (Landscheidt, 1986, 1987) that the sun’s activity would diminish past 1990. Just this happened. Though a panel of experts (Joselyn, 1997) had predicted in 1996 and even two years later that sunspot cycle 23 would have a large amplitude similar to the preceding cycles (highest smoothed monthly sunspot number… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

1. Introduction [Snip] Those scientists who are “grudgingly” beginning to acknowledge the sun’s pivotal role in climate change are converts who had believed in the IPCC’s dictum that “solar forcing is considerably smaller than the anthropogenic radiative forces” and its “level of scientific understanding is very low”, whereas forcing by well mixed greenhouse gases “continues to enjoy the highest confidence levels” as to its scientific understanding so that it is “unlikely that natural forcing can explain the warming in the latter half of the 20th century.” Actually, there had been a host of publications since the 19th century and especially in recent decades that provided evidence of strong solar-terrestrial relations in meteorology and climate ignored by proponents of man-made global warming (Koppen, 1873; Clough, 1905; Brooks; 1926; Scherhag, 1952; Bossolasco et al., 1973; Reiter, 1983; Eddy, 1976; Hoyt, 1979; Markson, 1980; Schuurmans, 1979; Landscheidt, 1981-2001; Bucha 1983; Herman and Goldberg, 1983; Neubauer 1983; Prohaska and Willett, 1983; Fairbridge and Shirley, 1987; Friis-Christensen and Lassen, 1991; Labitzke and van Loon, 1993; Haigh, 1996; Baliunas and Soon, 1995; Lassen and Friis-Christensen, 1995); Lau and Weng, 1995; Lean et al, 1995; Hoyt and Schatten, 1997; Reid,… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Global Cooling Consensus Is Heating Up – Cooling Over The Next 1 To 3 Decades 31 prominent scientists and researchers who have words that governments ought to start heeding. The List 1. Don Easterbrook, Professor Emeritus, Dept. of Geology, Western Washington University. Setting up of the PDO cold phase assures global cooling for next approx. 30 years. Global warming is over. Expect 30 years of global cooling, perhaps severe 2-5°F.” He predicts several possible cooling scenarios: The first is similar to 1945-1977 trends, the second is similar to 1880-1915 trends and the third is similar to 1790-1820 trends. His latest article states: Expect global cooling for the next 2-3 decades that will be far more damaging than global warming would have been.” Read here, here and here. 2. Syun Akasofu, Professor of Geophysics, Emeritus, University of Alaska, also founding director of ARC He predicts the current pattern of temperature increase of 0.5C /100 years resulting from natural causes will continue with alternating cooling as well as warming phases. He shows cooling for the next cycle until about 2030/ 2040. And again a new paper ON THE RECOVERY FROM LITTLE ICE AGE – Read… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

2010 – where does it fit in the warmest year list?

Posted on December 28, 2010 by Don J. Easterbrook

Headings

The past century

1880 to 1915 cool period.

1915 to 1945 warm period.

1945 to 1977 cool period.

1977 to 1998 global warming

1999 to 2010 global cooling.

The past 500 years

The past 5,000 years

The past 10,000 years

Conclusion
So where do the 1934/1998/2010 warm years rank in the long-term list of warm years? Of the past 10,500 years, 9,100 were warmer than 1934/1998/2010. Thus, regardless of which year ( 1934, 1998, or 2010) turns out to be the warmest of the past century, that year will rank number 9,099 in the long-term list.

The climate has been warming slowly since the Little Ice Age (Fig. 5), but it has quite a ways to go yet before reaching the temperature levels that persisted for nearly all of the past 10,500 years.

It’s really much to do about nothing.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

De-trending the 7SS NZTR and comparison to CO2 levels – a synopsis Conventional temperature anomalies are in relation to a 30 year flat average moving “normal” climate but this obscures the normal global warming that has occurred since the ice ages. The IPCC estimates this warming to be 0,45 C/100 yr since the Maunder minimum. De-trending the 7SS simply requires the subtraction of actual composite temperatures from a linear rise of 0.45 C per century starting at the 1850 global average temperature of 13.6 C (y = 0.45x + 13.6). A linear regression of the resulting anomaly 1909-2009 yields y = 0.00456x – 2.33. Therefore, NZ has warmed 0.456 C over the last century in excess of the general warming since the LIA 1850. It was also 2.33 C cooler than global at 1909 and 1.874 cooler than global at 2009. NIWA has not done this. The global record exhibits a cyclical trend in addition to the linear rise and so does the 7SS NZTR. The cyclical trend is revealed by the best fitting polynomial curve. NIWA has not done this. Two papers: “Reconstruction of solar spectral irradiance since the Maunder minimum”, N.… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Plotting a 15 year moving average of the 7SS composite actual temperature clearly shows that 0.4 C of the 0.9 C rise 1909-2009 occurred abruptly from 1953 to 1963.

Hullooo NIWA.

I have used the IPCC estimate of 0.45 global average temperature rise per century but there are good grounds that 0.5 should be used. Readers that are paying attention will have observed in “The List” that Akasofu (2) and Latif (3) use 0.5 explicitly and implicitly respectively.

This is because a rise of 0.45 per century starting with 13.6 at 1850 only yields 14.3155 C whereas 0.5 yields 14.395 C that is consistent with the latest global average (See – “The List”, Latif, 3).

De-trending the 7SS using y = 0.5x + 13.6 yields NZ local warming 1909-2009 of 0.4 C (y = 0.004066x -2.33446).

Hullooo NIWA.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Plotting a 15 year moving average of the 7SS NZTR de-trended using y = 0.5x + 13.6 is even more instructive. The data is here:-

https://www.climateconversation.org.nz/news/december-20-2010/#comment-34287

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

This plot from “New Little Ice Age Instead of Global Warming?” shows the perfect correlation of the Gleissberg cycle (thin line) with temperature (thick line) as opposed to the non-existent CO2 correlation over the same period. http://bourabai.narod.ru/landscheidt/new/Fig4L.jpg The Gleissberg cycle is a smoothed time series of the length of the sunspot cycle (LSC). “…..nearly all Gleissberg minima back to 300 A.D., as for instance around 1670 (Maunder minimum), 1810 (Dalton minimum), and 1895, coincided with cool climate in the Northern Hemisphere, whereas Gleissberg maxima went along with warm climate as for instance around 1130 (Medieval climate optimum). The degree of temperature change was proportional to the respective amplitudes in the Gleissberg cycle. During the Maunder minimum solar activity was minimal and during the Medieval Climate Optimum very high, probably even higher than in the six decades of intense solar activity before 1996. Accordingly, Friis-Christensen and Lassen (1995) have shown that the connection between the Northern Hemisphere land air temperature and varying LSC extends back to the 16th century. Butler (1996) corroborated this result for the last two centuries in Northern Ireland.” Temperature though, lags solar activity by several years and LSC is a… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Rate of 7SS rise since 1962 (47 years) 0.22 C/100 yr (de-trended 15 year moving average).

Actual rise 0.1 C since 1962 (0.1 = 0.002215 * 47 by linear regression).

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

The Primary and Secondary Climate Drivers. A compilation of papers and articles evidencing solar, lunar, cosmic ray and celestial influence on climate change. Primary:- The Variable Solar Dynamo and the Forecast of Solar Activity; Influence on Surface Temperature De Jager and Duhau. 2011 Reconstruction of solar spectral irradiance since the Maunder minimum N. A. Krivova, L. E. A. Vieira and S. K. Solanki, 2010 Are cold winters in Europe associated with low solar activity? M Lockwood, R G Harrison, T Woollings and S K Solanki 2010 Variation of cosmic ray flux and global cloud coverage–a missing link in solar-climate relationships. Svensmark – Fris-Christensen, 1996 Cosmic rays linked to rapid mid-latitude cloud changes B. A. Laken, D. R. Kniveton, and M. R. Frogley 2010 Cosmic ray decreases affect atmospheric aerosols and clouds H Svensmark, Bondo, and J Svensmark 2100 Celestial driver of Phanerozoic climate? Shaviv and Veizer, 2003 Cosmic Rays and Climate Shaviv The Watts and Copeland Sinusoidal Solar-Lunar Model WHAT IS THE MAIN FACTOR CONTROLLING THE MURRAY DARLING BASIN SYSTEM RAINFALL (SOUTH QLD-NEW SOUTH WALES-VICTORIA & SOUTH AUSTRALIA AREAS)? Holton, 2010 On the recovery from the Little Ice Age Akasofu 2010 THE SUN… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

“On the recovery from the Little Ice Age”, Akasofu 2010 is a one stop for de-bunking the following CAGW scary stories:-

Temperature rise

Sea level rise

Sea ice extent

Glacier retreat

CO2 influence on temperature

The paper establishes a normal rate of global temperature rise since 1650 of 0.5 C/century.

Speculates on the possibility that solar and cosmic ray influences are the major climate change causes.

Suggests that the warming has halted since 2000 due to multi-decadal change and predicts that temperatures will be flat or declining for the next 30 years or so.

Figure 9 is the most compelling visual summary, highlighting the IPCC’s bizarre assumption and prediction.

http://www.scirp.org/Journal/PaperInformation.aspx?paperID=3217&JournalID=69#abstract

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

I propose a simpler plan of attack on the ETS RIA.

1) Presentation of “On the recovery from the Little Ice Age”, Akasofu 2010

2) Presentation of “The Primary and Secondary Climate Drivers”, a compilation of papers and articles evidencing solar, lunar, cosmic ray and celestial influence on climate change.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Plus

3) Presentation of temperature trends for the global surface air temperature anomaly
(GSTA) as per “On the trend, detrending, and variability of nonlinear and nonstationary time series”, Wu, Norden, Huang, Steven, Long, and Peng, 2007 and 7SS NZTR using the same methodology.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

32. De Jager and Duhau

Predict a Maunder-type minimum beginning 2020-2030.

Andy
Guest
Andy

The trolls at HT are onto this

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

See down-thread “I propose a simpler plan of attack on the ETS RIA.”

If we stick to the recovery from the LIA, alternate climate driver hypotheses and temperature trends using up-to-date stats methods, it’s a whole lot simpler.

i.e Avoid physics and paleogeology like the plague (with respect to ex-geophysicists of course).

Andy
Guest
Andy

Hey! The only geophysics I ever did was in the pay of Big Oil.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

@Andy if you see this. Is this how XML works? @Richard T. This may be worth a post. I’m emailing Don Easterbrook to find out his basis for 1905 being his first data point and the NOAA contact Bruce Bauer to ascertain the correct “present” date for GISP2 temperature.. —————————————————————————————————————————- I’ve tried fact checking the Renowden – Easterbrook dispute over the “present” date of GISP2 temperature data found here:- ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/greenland/summit/gisp2/isotopes/gisp2_temp_accum_alley2000.txt Note there are 2 records – 1) Temperature 2) Accumulation rate (m. ice/year) First data point 0.0951409 x 1000 years before “present” in the temperature record. Gareth says this:- The first data point in the file is at 95 years BP, and shown in his graph. In other words, Don presents 1905 as equivalent to the present — a point I emphasised the last time he used this data. However, we were both wrong. One of the last comments to my “100 years of warming” post suggested that the GISP2 “present” followed a common paleoclimate convention and was actually 1950. This would make 95 years BP 1855 — a full 155 years ago, long before any other global temperature record shows any modern… Read more »

Andy
Guest
Andy

The Paleo_Temporal_Coverage elements (two of them) in the XML document seem to provide alternative representations of the temporal coverage

Start = -107175 AD == -107175 AD
Stop = 2000 AD == -50 BP

i.e you can’t assign different meanings to the two elements.

I don’t know what the significance of the 2000 date is, if any. The actual data, referenced in the txt file,clearly shows the first data point at 95 BP (i.e 1855 )

The XML file seems to be an industry standard metadata file.

Andy
Guest
Andy

I meant

-107175 AD = 109125 cal yr BP

for the start date. My typo

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

The actual data, referenced in the txt file,clearly shows the first data point at 95 BP (i.e 1855 ) You’ve identified 1950 as P by prior knowledge of the convention I assume because it does not say 1950 explicitly in the txt file. I was not sure that the convention had been followed by GISP2 but I’ve since found part confirmation in “A Note on the Timescales”:- http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/icecore/greenland/summit/document/notetime.htm A link “Meese/Sowers timescale” on that page leads to ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/greenland/summit/gisp2/depthage/gisp2age.txt And the first data is explicitly at 1.5m -38 (yrs BP 1950) i.e. 1988. I don’t know what the significance of the 2000 date is, if any 2000 is when the coring project starts but the temp reconstruction does not start until coring is 145 yrs down if 1950 is P or 95 yrs down if 2000 is P. I’m not convinced by your explanation because ice accumulation rate uses the 1950 P convention as clearly shown in the metadata (Paleo_Stop_Date -50 cal yr BP) but Temperature is stated differently (Paleo_Stop_Date 2000 AD). it seems to me that the Paleo_Temporal_Coverage elements are assigning 2 different conventions. You may be right that they are one and… Read more »

Andy
Guest
Andy

I can calculate the 1950 baseline for BP by comparing the two XML nodes that display the paleo date range. These use BP and AD respectively (I am always amazed how many people in NZ think AD stands for “after death”. Whose death exactly?)

If you have a contact then I agree it is best to confirm with them than resort to guesswork.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Don Easterbrook’s reply —————————————————————————————————————————— Hello Richard in New Zealand (one of my favorite places!), Drilling of the GISP2 ice core was completed in 1993, which precludes a top-of-the-core date of 2000. After the drilling, additonal firn studies were made so data may be available to 2000, but it isn’t from the top of the core. 1950 is the date used by ice core researchers as a common starting point, but it’s not the top of the core. If you look at the original oxygen isotope data of Stuiver and Grootes (available at the Univ. of Washington website) you will see that the top of their data set is 1987. Alley’s curve begins at 95 years before 1950 (1855), so CO2 dogmatists are claiming that is the top of core, but that is incorrect. Alley states that “Temperature interpretation based on stable isotope analysis, and ice accumulation data, from the GISP2 ice core, central Greenland. Data are smoothed from original measurements published by Cuffey and Clow (1997).” So, going back to the the Cuffey and Clow curve that Alley’s curve is based on, that curve begins at 0 yrs and they state: “We chose… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Bruce Bauer’s reply ———————————————————————————————————— Hello Richard, Sorry, we appear to have an error in our database regarding the time span of the Alley 2000 temperature and accumulation data. I suspect we picked up the entire age range for the GISP2 ice core when generating the web page, rather than only the portion used by Alley for this study. I will correct the database and regenerate the web page (and the XML file, it is also generated from the same source database). The link to the data file is correct, and that data file: ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/greenland/summit/gisp2/isotopes/gisp2_temp_accum_alley2000.txt contains the full set of temperature and accumulation data from Alley. The age units are thousands of years before present, with “present” defined as 1950 AD. As an aside, many geologic time series are dated via radiocarbon, which is unreliable after 1950 AD due to atmospheric testing of H-bombs, so 1950 AD was adopted as “present” by radiocarbon dating scientists, and adopted in paleoclimatology as well. The date ranges in the data file are correct. Temperature data extend from 0.095 to 49.981 thousand years before 1950 AD, so the corresponding calendar dates would be 1855AD to -48031 AD. The… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

On reflection, the focus should be on 2) for simplicity.

Presentation of “The Primary and Secondary Climate Drivers”, a compilation of papers and articles evidencing solar, lunar, cosmic ray and celestial influence on climate change.

With emphasis on predictive skill.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Setting the 2000-2010 present temperature at -30.15 (1.44 higher than -31.5913 at 1855) shows 12 periods warmer on Don Easterbrooks Fig 5. The 1.44 comes from GRIP data.

http://hot-topic.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/easterbrook_fig5.png

The actual data shows 17 periods warmer than the -30.15 2010 estimate:-

2.00687 – 2.20231
2.32376 – 2.3545
3.13329 – 3.43744
3.60574 – 3.66517
4.25679
4.99637 – 5.02375
5.14763 – 5.21773
5.57743 – 5.68131
6.75923 – 7.00894
7.40322 – 7.48772
7.55658 – 7.57475
7.64267 – 8.02902
8.59735
8.65181
8.68911 – 9.19888
9.30211 – 9.40756
9.67046 – 9.78686

The major periods total 5790 years.

This is being debated at WUWT

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/24/easterbrook-on-the-magnitude-of-greenland-gisp2-ice-core-data/#comment-583495

GR at HT is still on DE’s case too.

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