It’s not warming, you nitwit — it’s cooling

icicles in Germany

All right, so it might not be getting down to out-of-the-ordinary freezing temperatures, but it’s certainly not unduly warm, which is the claim we’re constantly hearing in the mainstream media, even now. Even after all the contrary evidence. Here’s more.

To show that there is scientific data backing up the refutation of strong, even dangerous, warming brought on by our over-indulgence in the famous capitalist mind-altering industrial pollutant, carbon dioxide, the NZ Climate Science Coalition just issued a press release. The 2009 paper from McLean, de Freitas and Carter shows the uncanny correlation between the Southern Oscillation Index and global temperature several months later. The press release shows how the paper “predicts” the current temperature plunge.

And I really mean plunge, because McLean et al speculate this year could be the coldest since 1956. Brrr!

Now be my guest: show how wrong it is! Show us how the correlation is not really a correlation. It’s a free world!

Oh — and you’ll also have to demonstrate, of course, that global temperatures are NOT following the SOI graph from about seven months ago (please don’t forget that part). The press release is next.

Press release

from

The New Zealand Climate Science Coalition

Hon Secretary, Terry Dunleavy MBE,

10 March 2011

Recent cooler temperatures were predictable

It is likely that 2011 will be the coolest year globally since 1956 or even earlier, according to the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition. Global temperatures in February just past continued to fall in a manner consistent with the findings of a peer reviewed paper by John McLean, Professor Chris de Freitas and Professor Bob Carter that was published in 2009.

The paper showed that the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a measure of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions, is a very good indicator of average global atmospheric temperatures seven months ahead, except when sporadic volcanoes cause short-term cooling.

“The global cooling that started in October 2010 is merely a reflection of the La Nina conditions that began last April,” says Mr McLean, “and the delay means that the average annual temperature in 2010 was due to the warm El Nino conditions that preceded the switch.”

The Coalition says several previous scientific papers have discussed the delayed response, including two by critics of McLean’s paper. Although the other papers used different data sources they came to similar conclusions about the delay. “The key question is how much influence the ENSO has on average global temperature. Although this can be difficult to determine because both can be affected by short term events such as wind, clouds and tropical storms, the sustained relationship in the data of the last 50 years shows the effect is significant,” says Mr McLean.

“The historical data also casts serious doubt on the hypothesis that carbon dioxide causes dangerous global warming. Since 1958 there’s been a 30% increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. If this had a major influence on temperature we’d expect to see clear evidence of the temperature line rising relative to the SOI line, which is not apparent.”

“The Australian Bureau of Meteorology reports that ENSO models are suggesting that the La Nina will continue well into the Southern Hemisphere autumn and fade slowly to neutral conditions by June. Taking into account the seven-month time lag it is likely that 2011 will be the coolest year since 1956 or even earlier. Also, records show the oceans absorb more carbon dioxide during a La Nina event than during an El Nino, which means that the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide in 2011 is likely to be less than in recent years,” Mr McLean concludes.

ENDS

More information

Combined graph of SOI and temperature

Combined graph of the Southern Oscillation Index, a measure of ENSO conditions, and the average global temperature in the lower part of the atmosphere.

Further background at John McLean’s web site, including discussion of criticism of two sentences in the less important part of the paper.

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Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

“The key question is how much influence the ENSO has on average global temperature.”?

We all know that correlation does not prove causation so that leaves just one probable cause – 97% of climate scientists agree that CO2 obviously causes ENSO to lead temperature by 7 months because there are no known natural causes.

CO2 also causes heavy rain and snow. This is proved conclusively by the fact that both have occurred recently when neither was predicted. The only conclusion to be drawn is that CO2 is to blame.

To remedy this situation, a tax must be applied to CO2 (or more precisely “carbon”). This will ensure a stable climate and perfect weather, not too hot, not too cold. The sooner the tax is applied to every CO2 emitting device, the sooner we will be able to enjoy planetary utopia.

Andy
Guest
Andy

Yes I agree Richard. I would be happy to continue to live without power, water and sanitation in Christchurch, and divert the proceeds of rebuilding Christchurch into mitigating 0.0005 deg C of potential temperature rise based on uncalibrated computer models.

It really is time these selfish deniers got their priorities right. Would someone please think about the cheeeldren!!

QuentinF
Guest
QuentinF

Tax the breath of the politicians. I’m sure they’ll all be willing to pay up large!

QuentinF
Guest
QuentinF

Well done on the graph too, proves a great correlation.. But dont let facts ruin a politicians day..esp this Gillard woman over here!

Andy
Guest
Andy

Speaking of unpopular politicians, I see that UK deputy PM Clegg has just ordered a 2 million pound steel wall to be built around the venue of his party political conference, after threats of kidnapping by student activists. Goes nicely with his GBP 300,000 bomb-proof car. Given that his party came 6th in Barnsley recently, trailing the UKIP and the BNP, one wonders how much longer the Cleggerons can stay in power.

Gillard’s lot probably won’t last much longer either if she continues to push the carbon tax.

Interesting times indeed.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Ross Garnaut is racheting up the alarm in OZ saying Sydney “could” be swamped by sea waters once a year instead of once every one hundred years, if nothing is done to address climate change.

What an idiot, there’s nothing that OZ or NZ can do to avoid that even if it was a credible threat. Meanwhile in the real world, he’s been gazumped by a 10m tsunami in Japan.

The low lying islands of the Pacific are far more vulnerable to a tsunami than the 1.3mm/yr sea level rise. A TV report said one island escaped the tsunami threat because it had been evacuated because of rising sea levels “caused by global warming” (they had to lever that in somehow) but they have decades to prepare for something that “could” happen. No such warning for an earthquake and only an hour or so for a tsunami that “is” happening..

Ross Garnaut should get real.

Pete Ridley
Guest

On 5th March I “Googled” to see if any deranged individuals were trying to link the devastating Christchurch earthquake with AGW. That took me to the blog of New Zealand journalist and author Gareth Renowden on his Hot Topic “the Climate Show – Kevin Trenberth .. ” thread (http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-climate-show-8-kevin-trenberth-and-our-shaky-future/comment-page-1/#comment-24817). I watched his A/V until the end of Kevin’s offering (having frequently visited John Cook’s “biased-science” blog and been banned for my unwelcome contributions I didn’t wish to hear any more of his attempts to talk science that even scientists have a poor understanding of). Gareth was very naughty, trying to get Kevin to support his biased opinion about the CAUSE of the nasty weather events we have been hearing about during the past year. Gareth likes pushing the idea that these are all down to Catastrophic Anthropogenic Climate Change (CACC). Kevin nearly fell into the trap a few times but did leave himself enough wriggle room for the future when global cooling really sets in. Trenberth’s contribution runs from 29 – 50 minutes. CACC-promoting Gareth first tried to prompt him into attributing the Australian flooding events this year to our use of fossil… Read more »

Richard Treadgold
Guest

Hi Pete,

That’s an enjoyable account of Renowden’s talk with Trenberth, thanks. Gareth is a well-known climate denier and seldom gets things right.

You raise a matter of the physics of gas molecules I know nothing about, but the ramifications are very important, so I hope you draw some replies. There’s at least one physicist lurking around here — in fact, you do a lot more than just lurk, don’t you, Bob?

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

It had to happen. Reuters are trumpeting a (rather tenuous) link between global warming and earthquakes etc —————————————————————————————————————————- (Reuters) – Quakes, volcanic eruptions, giant landslides and tsunamis may become more frequent as global warming changes the earth’s crust, scientists said on Wednesday. Climate-linked geological changes may also trigger “methane burps,” the release of a potent greenhouse gas, currently stored in solid form under melting permafrost and the seabed, in quantities greater than all the carbon dioxide (CO2) in our air today. “Climate change doesn’t just affect the atmosphere and the oceans but the earth’s crust as well. The whole earth is an interactive system,” Professor Bill McGuire of University College London told Reuters, at the first major conference of scientists researching the changing climate’s effects on geological hazards. “In the political community people are almost completely unaware of any geological aspects to climate change.” [Snip] Speakers were careful to point out that many findings still amounted only to hypotheses, but said evidence appeared to be mounting that the world could be in for shocks on a vast scale. http://in.reuters.com/article/2009/09/16/us-climate-geology-idINTRE58F62I20090916 —————————————————————————————————————————– Grist couldn’t resist a bit of opportunism either —————————————————————————————————————————- Today’s tsunami: This is… Read more »

Andy
Guest
Andy

Methane may cause earthquakes? Is this the same methane that has stayed at a roughly constant level for the last few years?

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

No, these are methane “burps” that “may” be triggered by carbon dioxide and methane emissions (not the natural kind) – far more alarming (and a bit confusing).

I don’t think there has been a “burp” yet but we will know when it happens because the local vicinity will be incinerated as soon as the gas is exposed to a naked flame thereby nullifying any earthquake threat. So I don’t think there is anything to worry about except for the fire hazard of course.

Andy
Guest
Andy

Gosh that sounds scary. Better dash off and sacrifice some virgins.

Btw, if you want a giggle, check out the Australian Greens climate manifesto,.

http://greens.org.au/policies/climate-change-and-energy/climate-change-and-energy

They want a mere 40% reduction in emissions from 1990 levels by 2020.

Beam me up Scotty.

Pete Ridley
Guest

Hi Richard, thanks for posting my comment. You correctly spotted the whole point of my hypothesis about preferential fractionation of CO2 from air pockets in ice. I argue that it is due to the smaller kinetic diameter of CO2 (.33nm) compared with O2 (.36) and N2 (.38) that results in CO2 migrating down the pressure gradient towards the surface of the ice long after O2 and N2 are too large to get through the pores. I’ve debated this a fair bit in the blogosphere, starting at Chris Colose’s blog then on to Josh Halpern’s (AKA Eli) and elsewhere. Even the “experts I mentioned previously did not comment on the specific issue of Kinetic v collision diameter. As Zbiniew Jaworowski said in a recent E-mail, this aspect if molecular migration (I steer away from referring to it as diffusion because that can cause confusion) is “terra incognito” to paleo-climatologists. He took advice from a petroleum engineer when writing on the subject years ago. Hartmut Frank is another who I understand considers this to be a factor which distorts the historic record (significantly) to produce another “Hockey Stick Illusion”. If you want me to expand… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

The first climate change and energy “Principle” only presents climate change as something that “poses” (i.e. offers for our consideration) the greatest threat in human history, then the second defines it as a crisis. The Australian Greens believe that: 1. climate change poses the greatest threat to our world in human history and requires urgent local, national and global action 2. we have only 10-15 years to use our collective human intelligence to address the crisis of climate change and to prevent catastrophe. I guess the distinction is moot for those that believe the principles, although belief in “our collective human intelligence” might be a bit naive given the spectrum of human intellect and the state of it in many individuals. Principle 1 lacks imagination I think. Surely there are greater threats to be imagined: invasion by despotic space goblins bent on planetary conquest sounds frightening, so does en masse spontaneous combustion or the thought of being slowly sucked into a black hole. Climate change is more like a tropical holiday all year round in comparison to those threats MadJak at JoNova puts it another way:- “I really don’t understand why in prosperous… Read more »

Andy
Guest
Andy

One suspects that, if the Aus Greens continue with their plans to de-industrialise their country, they’ll head the same way as the Irish Greens.

Andy
Guest
Andy

Getting back to the topic of the thread, I see that Aussie Green Steve Meacher has been proudly showing off his letter to the ABC on HotTopic. Apparently, he takes issue with Bob Carter’s recent statements in Quadrant Online and believes that the national broadcaster should not air the views of Prof Carter.

Conversely, I imagine that Mr Meacher feels that his personal views on climate change are worth listening to.

His qualifications in this area are no doubt impeccable, as a trained teacher.
Whether Prof Carter’s PhD in Paleoclimatology from Cambridge is more relevant than Mr Meacher’s teaching degree is, no doubt, the subject of vigorous debate

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Meantime the other parties are falling over themselves to appear “Green” (as are many corporates) but they are missing the bigger picture in the process and alienating their core constituency. I see Nick Smith’s scepticism applies to earthquake prediction:- Christchurch earthquake: Sceptics take aim at Ken Ring Smith and the Skeptics Society are planning a lunch in one of Christchurch’s highest, oldest, stone buildings – on the day that “moon man” Ken Ring says the city will be hit by another devastating earthquake. Ring’s prediction of another earthquake on March 20 – a week today – has caused alarm among some Cantabrians, who have said they will flee the city. But the minister, who has a doctorate in geotechnical engineering, said he took a very dim view of people causing alarm with no scientific underpinning. “I believe in free speech but just as people should not stand up in a picture theatre and scream fire, people should not be making phony predictions of major earthquakes.” And “It is important that such nonsense is exposed and people with good science point out the flaws in those who claim they can predict when earthquakes can… Read more »

Andy
Guest
Andy

Shub’s latest post has a great screen cap from Joe Romm’s Climate Progress on how to build a “device” to destroy or disable a power station.

So it’s not OK to write a comment that disagrees with Joe, but this stuff gets through moderation.

One step beyond the Red Button …

http://nigguraths.wordpress.com/2011/03/12/romm-climate-hawk/

Mark
Guest
Mark

Also a bit off-topic but….

Have you seen this story from Australia. It has made it into the Bishop Hill Blog and Telegraph. The story of the bullying of a student for expressing doubts about global warming.

http://newzealandclimatechange.wordpress.com/2011/03/13/bullying-into-belief/

A rather sad tale.

Pete Ridley
Guest

Richard C, when I “Googled” for those trying to make that connection between the earth quakes (never been known before of course until recently – that “Ring of Fire” nonsense is just a myth) the only other blogs that I came across were religious ones. Your closing comment that “ .. they will capture and enslave some minds (mostly young and malleable) ..” is the thing that we have to keep fighting. Al Gore has his machine working on this and the feedback I get from my grand children makes me very worried. They are being indoctrinated with this nonsense and parents are taking no interest.

Best regards, Pete Ridley

Pete Ridley
Guest

Richard (Treadgold), following up on my comment about treferential fractionation of CO2 and “Another Hockey Stick Illusion”, I had a response on Gareth Renowned’s Hot Topic blog (http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-twilight-zone/comment-page-1/#comment-25021) from Otago U geologist Mike Palin which told me absolutely nothing. You may be interested in my further comment there, posted today. QUOTE: .. Now let’s get back to the much more challenging issue of the migration of CO2 in ice. You claim that “the scientists who do research on these problems have developed corrections for thermal and gravitational diffusion effects on the molecular proportions of the gases using isotopic fractionations that must accompany these processes. More recently, Jeff Severinghaus has found that the molecular proportions and isotopic compositions of the heavier noble gases Kr and Xe exhibit excellent preservation in the ice cores. This would not be the case for a kinetic process of the type you envision”. Since you were reluctant to provide a link to your source or even a paper title, I make the assumption that you are referring to the 2006 paper “Fractionation of gases in polar ice during bubble close-off: New constraints from firn air Ne, Kr and Xe… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Mark, this is right on topic. The public and school students are not being presented with science such as the graph that Richard T has posted and the original McLean, de Freitas and Carter 2009 paper that documents a temperature correlation that beats CO2 hands down.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Even worse that the paper is being actively suppressed and vilified by a certain faction of climate science and their New Zealand connections in Universities and science societies.

Andy
Guest
Andy

Even worse than that, the folks at our favorite warmist hangout have been actively defending the indoctrination of children.

They seem to find no problem in frightening children to forward their political agenda.

It’s child abuse, plain and simple.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

To help those curious about alternatives to AGW and how McLean, de Freitas and Carter 2009 fits into the big picture I’ve compiled a linked list of papers and articles that document natural climate driver hypotheses under the headings of what I consider primary and secondary.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1eNnA4UAEwc6gpqCC9_Rh4y9B4lcly5TtDMEG30-77uY/edit?hl=en

H/T Andy for the Google Docs idea and tutoring.

Those that have already seen it might like to update their copy because it’s in a better form and I’m adding to it when I come across anything worthwhile.

Pete Ridley
Guest

I have just had a response from Mike Palin on the issue of “Another Hockey Stick Delusion” and presented some further thoughts for his consideration. Is there anyone on this blog interested in following this up? If not I’ll stop bothering you.

Best regards, Pete Ridley.

Andy
Guest
Andy

I am interested. Let us know

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

I’m interested too, but don’t have knowledge myself.

It might be a question that could be put to the nanotechnology group at the University of Canterbury.

Science Outreach contact http://www.outreach.canterbury.ac.nz/smartmaterials.shtml

For further information about Nanotechnology research and graduate studies at the University of Canterbury, contact:

Prof. Simon Brown
simon.brown@canterbury.ac.nz
Ph: +64 (0)3 364 2507
Fax: +64 (0) 3 364 2469
Department of Physics and Astronomy,
University of Canterbury,
Private Bag 4800, Christchurch, New Zealand.

http://www.phys.canterbury.ac.nz/gradstud/nanotech.shtml

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Abbott hasn’t changed his position at a personal level (still a “denier” as Combet puts it).

Carbon dioxide not the bad guy, says Abbott

March 15, 2011 – smh

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/carbon-dioxide-not-the-bad-guy-says-abbott-20110314-1bul3.html

Richard Treadgold
Guest

Nobody’s bothered by your contributions, Pete — we’re interested. Of a certainty, the audience here is more interested in your interesting facts about gases in firn and ice than anyone at Hot Topic is.

At this site, as you’ve probably noticed, we get on and discuss the facts pertaining to climate science in preference to insulting or criticising those holding opposing views. Carry on, sir!

Pete Ridley
Guest

Richard T, Richard C and Andy, thanks for the encouragement to continue updating you on this “Other Hockey Stick Delusion”. In the main I have tried to present my hypothesis in a reasoned manner to Mike Palin, although, being human, I have fallen into the trap of being a little facetious at times. So far all that I have been getting from Mike is hand-waving, which doesn’t help to move the discussion along. The impression that I get is that Mike, like the paleo-climatologists, does not really understand the process of preferential fractionation of CO2 due to its smaller kinetic diameter and is simply trying to defend the faith that CACC disciples and followers have in the validity of that CO2 “hockey stick”. These are the comments that Mike has come back with specifically about the process (ad homs removed) QUOTE: .. March 13, 2011 at 10:33 am .. it is no news that the molecular proportions of gases in air are fractionated during the process of trapping in ice core bubbles. Fortunately, the scientists who do research on these problems have developed corrections for thermal and gravitational diffusion effects on the molecular… Read more »

Andy
Guest
Andy

Pete,
Is it worth contacting Paul Dennis at UEA?

My research interests lie in the application of natural stable isotope chemistry to environmental and palaeoclimate studies. I am also very active in instrument design, developing new, high sensitivity isotope ratio mass spectrometers (IRMS)in order to analyse small samples with a high degree of precision, measure ‘isotopic clusters’, noble gas isotope ratios and the natural variation of oxygen in the atmosphere.

In my laboratory we use stable isotope geochemistry to help us understand aspects of past and present climate and environment change. The isotopic composition of fossil rainwater trapped in stalactites and stalagmites collected from caves helps us to unravel details of the climate in western Europe over the past 11,000 years

http://www.uea.ac.uk/env/people/facstaff/dennisp

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Pete, I’ve asked for feedback from anyone at JoNova that might be able to assist (linked to here).

Pete Ridley
Guest

Hi Richard C, thanks for the plug on JoNova’s “CARBON TAX AND TEMPERATURE” thread (March 16th at 6:17 am on http://joannenova.com.au/2011/03/carbon-tax-australia-welcome-to-futility-island/) – nice summary.

Best regards, Pete Ridley

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Cohenite posted this Warwick Hughes link to:- “CO2: The Greatest Scientific Scandal of Our Time” by Zbigniew Jaworowski, M.D., Ph.D., D.Sc., March 2007 http://www.warwickhughes.com/icecore/ I haven’t looked at the papers yet to see if your contention is addressed and you may have already come across the link but there is also an easy read statement written for the Hearing before the US Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation that documents other ice core issues:- Climate Change: Incorrect information on pre-industrial CO2, March 19, 2004 Statement of Prof. Zbigniew Jaworowski Chairman, Scientific Council of Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection Warsaw, Poland This interests me because it questions the Law Dome – Mauna Loa spliced climate model CO2 spin-up dataset, quote:- “The data from shallow ice cores, such as those from Siple, Antarctica[5, 6], are widely used as a proof of man-made increase of CO2 content in the global atmosphere, notably by IPCC[7]. These data show a clear inverse correlation between the decreasing CO2 concentrations, and the load-pressure increasing with depth (Figure 1 A). The problem with Siple data (and with other shallow cores) is that the CO2 concentration found in pre-industrial ice from… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Another analysis from Cohenite:-

A Simple Method to Correct Carbon Dioxide Concentrations in Ice Core Data for Ice / Gas Age Difference Perturbations.

http://homepage.ntlworld.com/jdrake/Questioning_Climate/userfiles/Ice-core_corrections_report_1.pdf

Pete Ridley
Guest

Hi Richard C, thanks again for your support on this issue and thanks to Cohenite (why do people hide behind false names?) for the link. I share your concerns about the splicing of measurements on top of a volcano with attempted reconstructions from air “trapped” in ice for decades, centuries and millennia – brings back memories of a few tree-rings and statistically manipulated measurements of global temperatures themselves of dubious quality. As I’ve said before “Another Hockey Stick Illusion”. I started my journey here as a very concerned parent and grandparent after reading environmental activist Mark Lynas’s propaganda booklet “Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet” in 2007. After initially looking up that blind alley I found the route to confirmed CACC scepticism after reading Vincent Gray’s “The Greenhouse Delusion” and the papers by Jaworowski. For about a year now I have been exchanging E-mails with Jaworowski (and one of his co-authors, Professor Segalstad) and Professor Hartmut Frank (who wrote a forward to Jawotrowski’s 1994 paper “Ancient Atmosphere – Validity of Ice Records”) on this “Another Hockey Stick Delusion” issue. Jaworowski only touched on the matter of gas diffusion in ice distorting… Read more »

Pete Ridley
Guest

I have only quickly scanned this paper because it is not directly applicable to the CO2 fractionation issue but the pont that immediately struck me was ” .. the following assumptions are made: 1. Estimates of the gas age are robust .. “!

If CO2 fractionation takes place as I hypothesise then I can’t envisage this assumption standing up to scrutiny.

Best regards, Pete.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Drakes adjustment that might be a pointer though.

Next page:-

“To state the obvious, for every year increase in IGD the carbon dioxide concentration drops by 0.02362 ppmv.”

Drake is proposing that the original CO2 dataset is “compensated” (pg 4) using the formula:

A = B – (-0.02362 *I GD)

If CO2 is migrating as you hypothesise, at what rate is it migrating over different segments of the pressure gradient? If the rates are known, the data could be adjusted in a similar manner.

It seems sensible to me that if there is migration that it would occur at an optimum range of depth and pressure (i.e. it would not be linear.). Above that range there’s not enough pressure to cause migration and below the range there’s too much pressure but the bulk of the molecules would have migrated earlier anyway.

I’m still stunned by the arbitrary 83 year Siple curve “correction” revelation i.e. that you can make it up as you go along. So I see no reason not to make similar corrective adjustments if CO2 does turn out to migrate through apertures close to its kinetic diameter.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

I’m chemically challenged so my synopsis of Palin’s argument might be a little off.

He concedes that “it is no news that the molecular proportions of gases in air are fractionated during the process of trapping in ice core bubbles” and adds that a power law governs whether CO2 is able to detach (fractionate?) from the gas mixture in the first instance (but he doesn’t mention the role of pressure in the “law”). The “power law” he mentions is irrelevant (despite his preaching) unless CO2 is actually unable to fractionate in the gas bubble under pressure but he has already conceded that it does (Huh?).

His only support is that other molecules (not CO2) have remained in the same proportion as in air. Not compelling in view of the collision-kinetic diameter differences (i.e. he’s missed the point entirely or more likely trying to make it go away)..

He does excel in ad hominem, bluster and irrelevancy nonetheless..

Andy
Guest
Andy

Speaking of Cohenite, he (?) has a good guest post at

http://jennifermarohasy.com/blog/2011/03/garnaut%E2%80%99s-second-update-sceptics-are-the-white-swans/

Definitely worth a read – sums up a lot of the main points.

Pete Ridley
Guest

You may recall me commenting on March 12 at 11:56 am about “ .. any deranged individuals were trying to link the devastating Christchurch earthquake with AGW .. ”. Guess what – QUOTE: Live in harmony with nature, says Pachauri: .. Addressing students at Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham on the sixteenth Institution Day Celebrations here on Friday, he lauded the efforts of the administration, pertaining to their green drive. “Unless we live in harmony with nature, unless we are able to reduce our dependency on fossil fuels and adopt renewable energy sources and until we change our life styles, the world will increasingly become unfit for human habitation,” he said .. UNQUOTE (http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2011-03-14/coimbatore/28687815_1_harmony-green-drive-renewable-energy-sources). Someone please confirm for me that this is a spoof. It looks as though Gareth Renowdon has decided to block my comments now, rather than simply posting them on his “The Twilight Zone: a repository for comments that are off-topic, obvious trolling, or from the terminally bemused — a feature of Hot Topic’s new comments policy. Do not expect to find good sense herein — consider it a record of failed communication and fantasy .. ” (http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-twilight-zone/comment-page-1/#comment-25104). Gareth’s request to others… Read more »

Pete Ridley
Guest

This is my most recent submission to Hot Topic which Gareth has chosen to block QUOTE: Now that Mike Palin has withdrawn is there anyone here who is able to take up the challenge to disprove my hypothesis about preferential fractionation of CO2 from the atmospheric gas mixture “trapped” in ice. Surely all that is require is to demonstrate that smaller CO2 molecules (0.33nm diameter) cannot preferentially escape from the air pockets through 0.34nm diameter pores – leaving behind the larger O2 (0.35nm) and N2 (0.36nm) – and migrate towards the surface down the pressure gradient. I know that this could be difficult to show because energy industry gas purification engineers use to good effect commercially the fact that different gases have different molecular kinetic diameter, e.g. to bring coal mine gas (CMG) – ranging from 25-95% CH4 – up to natural gas transmission system standards (typically no more than CO2 1.5%, N2 2.0% O2 0.05%). Come on you expert paleo-climatologists at Otago U, all that you have to do is prove that those numerous commercial systems that have been in operation for years don’t really work and all of that “purified” CMG… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

“It looks as though Gareth Renowdon has decided to block my comments now”

Congratulations on your graduation.

Along with the “Twilight Zone” there is “Permanent Moderation” where anyone that presents any data or notion contrary to the CAGW narrative is effectively silenced. CO2 readings from ice cores are sacrosanct. Questioning them is heresy and you know what happens to heretics don’t you.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

“and migrate towards the surface down the pressure gradient.” Would not the nanometer diameter apertures only occur in ice and is migration necessarily toward the surface? As I understand, the strata is snow then firn (the transition) then ice. The conditions in firn would not be conducive to migration until some level of pressure is reached I would have thought and then the aperture sizes would surely pass air anyway. I follow that a free CO2 molecule may pass an aperture diameter in ice that other molecules cannot but it seems to me that with sufficient pressure a molecule will pass in any direction so that it is still present in the surrounding ice core lattice but not in an air pocket that is sampled. In other words, a CO2 molecule does not necessarily migrate to the surface but remains trapped in the ice lattice surrounding an air bubble but is not captured for measurement. I am assuming that only air pockets are sampled but what gas molecules are present in the surrounding ice lattice? The analogy of gas purification processes applied to ice under pressure at depth indicates to me that a… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

I went searching for electron scanning microscope images of a compressed ice lattice, came across this:- Thayer School of Engineering at Dartmouth. Research Projects. Advanced Microstructural Characterization of Polar Ice Cores Funded by the National Science Foundation This project aims to fully characterize the microstructure in ice cores, in particular the microstructural locations of impurities, grain orientations and strain gradients. This work will complement the optical observations, electrical conductivity measurement, and precise, detailed measurements of the soluble ion and gas contents that are performed by others. Linking the concentrations of soluble ions and gases, measured to a few parts per billion, to the optically determined annual layer structure and the stable isotope data in ice cores has enabled a great deal to be established about the concentrations and depth/age distributions of particles, trace gases and impurities for several polar ice cores. Ice core studies carried out by several groups contribute immensely to our understanding of paleoclimate and, to our ability to predict future climate change. The work will build on previous measurements and technique development in this area, as well as focusing on new techniques to characterize ice cores. The work will use… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Found this image:- Trajectory of CO2 in ice lattice (approx 1.25nm x 1.25nm) http://www.nanonet.go.jp/english/mailmag/2005/files/054b2.gif Seems to confirm that CO2 migrates along apertures for a fraction of a nm, although the image is a simulation. Not only that, but the molecules create their own pathway by distorting the ice lattice. From website nanonet http://www.nanonet.go.jp/english/mailmag/2005/054b.html JAPAN NANONET BULLETIN – 54th Issue – September 29, 2005 Tomoko IKEDA-FUKAZAWA Associate Professor, Department of Industrial Chemistry, Meiji University Diffusion of air molecules in antarctic ice-sheet (Issued in Japanese: March 23, 2004) Diffusion of air molecules in ice was found from Raman spectroscopic study of natural ice from the Antarctic ice-sheet (T. Ikeda-Fukazawa et al., Geophys. Res. Lett. 26 (1999)). The results have important implications for the reconstruction of the paleo-atmosphere from polar ice cores. In order to investigate the diffusion of air molecules in Antarctic ice-sheets in periods of tens of thousands years, I have been studying the dynamics of water and air molecules in ice crystals. I have performed molecular dynamics simulations involving the diffusion of air molecules (e.g., N2, O2, and CO2) in ice crystals and observed the diffusion hops for these molecules from a stable… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

I pity Nick Smith and Gareth Renowden don’t exercise the same degree of scepticism over man-made climate change predictions that they do over Ken Ring’s earthquake predictions. E.g. Smith “Geotechnical engineer Nick Smith has hit out at natural disaster claims by Ken Ring as “bogus”, saying that future decisions on risk need to be based on rational science. The Nelson MP said it is “reckless and irresponsible for people like Ken Ring to be speculating on the timing of future major earthquakes with no scientific basis”.” http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/reckless-quake-claims-not-helping-said-smith-4073216 And Renowden “These predictions, made by an arrogant, ignorant, and foolish astrologer have somehow persuaded members of my community — friends and neighbours — that there is a real risk of a major earthquake in North Canterbury some time over this weekend. Some have left home, others have admitted being unsettled by the “moon man” and his predictions. For people who have already lived through two major earthquakes, suffered the knife-edge uncertainty of repeated aftershocks, stressed and traumatised by the loss of loved ones, the sort of “opinions” offered by Ken Ring are the worst kind of medicine.” He then goes on to bemoan the MSM… Read more »

Andy
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Andy

The double irony is that after a post stating “Ken Ring knows nothing”, a fairly stiff 5.1 shook the ground.

I don’t put much store in Ken Ring’s predictions, after all he did used to read cat’s paws, but the complete lack of self awareness on the climate predictions is amazing.

I can tell you that neighbours of mine were prepared to move away from the beach because of the RSNZ report on sea level rise. This “not based on empirical science” report managed to get a fair bit of MSM coverage and scare the locals too.

Andy
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Andy

Keith Hunter chips in too.

Apparently he and the government chief scientist have done some statistical analysis and shown that there is no correlation between Ring’s predictions and earthquakes.

This is great to see. Now can we do the same exercise between CO2 emissions and extreme weather events? Can’t be hard.

Pete Ridley
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Richard C, it seems that I was too impatient with Gareth because he did post my comment after all. I’ll have to wait for my gaduation. Mike Palin couldn’t keep away and responded with “Damnit Pete, I can’t stand your dumbass comments .. ” followed by some irrelevant waffle on a side-issue. I’ve pointed this out to him but my comment hasn’t been posted yet. On your comment “ .. Would not the nanometer diameter apertures only occur in ice .. ”, I think not. I wasn’t able to open the Dartmouth College paper “Advanced Electron Microscopy Techniques for Studying Firn and Ice Cores” but did look at “Diffusion of air molecules in antarctic ice-sheet” by Professor Fukazawa. That one is concerned with migration through the ice after close-off, which is an additional process that distorts the composition of the air “trapped” in pockets in the ice but I’ve E-mailed her in the hopes that she has done research relating to the firn. I’m talking about the situation that arises in the firn at a time before “close-off” when the pores (that exist in the snow from the beginning) have been compressed until… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Pete, Richard Treadgold has set up a post “Fallen Snow” in which to pursue this topic so I will reply to your comment above at that post here:-

https://www.climateconversation.org.nz/2011/03/fallen-snow/

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Did I imagine it or did the TV newsreaders look a bit sheepish reporting the 5.1 after the bashing they gave Ring in the leadup?

A small slice of humble pie was eaten at HT too.

The tidal movement of the ocean overburden must have some effect on tectonic movement but I would have thought more as a gradual pressure release than a trigger.

Andy
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Andy

Yes, and dumbass comment this morning from Petra Bagust –
“When did anyone do a witch hunt against the Met Office”

(in reference to the attacks on Ring)

Obviously the term “barbeque summer” never crossed her path.

mk
Guest
mk

“And I really mean plunge, because McLean et al speculate this year could be the coldest since 1956.”

Skeptics call out psychics, astrologers, etc. when their predictions don’t pan out … how will McLean’s prediction be treated by those who promoted it, even treating it as fact (“because” above)?

Scott
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Scott

It’s 2018, and this paper was CRAZY WRONG!!! CO2 is the driving force, and we certainly did NOT cool. Interesting to visit the sites and “scientist” who really got it wrong and find that they called themselves skeptics. They were simply blinded by their paycheck.

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