Zero Carbon meeting — science loses

Consultation or propaganda?

I attended the public meeting on the Zero Carbon Bill in Tauranga last Monday. A team from the Ministry for the Environment (MfE) presented details as part of public consultation on the bill. About 80 people (mostly old ones) turned up, but the Environment Minister, the Hon James Shaw, though expected, did not turn up.

The government is asking for our comments on the bill (the country’s principal global warming response) and they imply that thereby we are helping to choose the country’s future. But they’ve already made the big decisions. The government has already set the framework for the Climate Commission and determined our emission target for 2050 (guess what it is—zero!). The government is under no obligation to implement public recommendations for the Climate Commission or the semi-decadal reduction targets along the way.

The presenters were well rehearsed but they cocked up the logistics. The meeting began 20 minutes late. There was no microphone, amplifier, projector or whiteboard, so only the dozen or so under-40s could clearly hear the speakers, who were frequently asked by the elderly majority to “speak up” or to move to the front of the stage. None of the speakers seemed inclined to enunciate clearly. The long Maori introductions, or prayers or whatever they were, were impenetrable, there was no English translation and no explanation for them. Maybe they’re just compulsory at government events.

We were not amused

Both main speakers made frequent reference to missing slides as though it was amusing, for example: “There was a beautiful slide here.” Those who cared what they said were unamused that we couldn’t see the helpful graphics or make out the narration. Considering that the venue, full-colour brochures, booklets, air fares and accommodation came out of our taxes and that we are also expected to underwrite this expensive public scheme over 30 years, we fully deserved to hear about it, but much remained a mystery. We devoted several hours to a lacklustre performance that left me unsatisfied.

Kiwis so far have no idea of the pervasive influence the Zero Carbon project will have on our private lives, the intrusions these civil servants are considering or the tremendous costs we’re expected to underwrite. Clearly, our government is prepared to create a shocking interference in our lives.

There are two main parts to the policy:

  1. A Climate Change Commission will be established with people of proven skills charged with either or both advising and instructing the government.
  2. The government has determined that national emissions must be reduced to zero by 2050, with targets at each five-year period before then to be decided.

Since the meeting I’ve studied the brochure handed to us and the much longer Our Climate Your Say: Consultation on the Zero Carbon Bill (pdf, 1.4 MB) from the MfE website. They include numerous distortions and porky pies. I hardly made it past Shaw’s introduction before bogging down in inaccuracies.

The first sentence of the executive summary is:

The Government is committed to acting on climate change.

To those who understand something of climate science, this signals the government’s utter disregard for science, at a moment when they ought to be giving the citizens of New Zealand a little solid evidence to support their intention to reduce emissions to so-called zero.

Debate is real and vigorous

Even a cursory examination reveals substantial doubt in scientific circles about numerous aspects of the science behind climate change. I don’t refer here to vague doubts allegedly raised by sceptics in desperate attempts to scotch the truth about global warming, but rather to real disputes of opinion between genuine scientists on both sides of the ideological divide.

Contrary to the impression given by the mainstream media, there does exist vigorous debate about numerous aspects of the new field of climate science, including the climatic influence of carbon dioxide, the atmospheric lifetime of CO2, the global warming potential and lifetime of methane (which new research suggests has been greatly overstated), the effect of clouds and water vapour, the influence of volcanic heat recently discovered under Antarctic ice sheets and glaciers, the beneficial effects of increasing CO2, the complete absence of acceleration in sea level rise and, particularly for New Zealand but highly relevant around the world, the absolute futility of reducing our emissions in the face of soon-to-triple Chinese emissions, which are already some 177 times greater than ours, not to mention growing emissions from Europe, India, Russia and Japan (US emissions have been declining for three years). There are many more areas of dispute.

Add to this the incredible resistance by Greens to both hydroelectric schemes and nuclear power and there’s a great deal being swept aside by the rush to implement the Zero Carbon scheme. I note that, though Greens oppose future hydro schemes, they’re perfectly happy to rely on our existing generators in their planning to keep the lights on. Why not more? Strengthen our power security? We ought to be talking about all this, not sweeping it under the damned carpet. This “analysis” is more like a snow job. The government should be providing this information.

According to the MfE, their economic modelling assumes “electric vehicles increase to make up 65 per cent of the light vehicle fleet by 2050,” or, in another scenario, 95%. But where will the electricity come from? We don’t have enough generating capacity at the moment.

A step was missed out

Why do this? The Royal Society of New Zealand provides no evidence for a dangerous human influence on the climate. What does the government know that the RS doesn’t? Why don’t they tell us? I’ve come across references to perhaps several billion per annum in direct costs and lost opportunities.

What’s the treaty got to do with it?

The Treaty of Waitangi, as one might expect, says nothing about global warming, but the MfE say, “it’s important to consider Maori rights under the Treaty of Waitangi in facilitating the implementation of climate change opportunities.” Unexpectedly, they believe it’s not enough to include Maoris when considering everyone’s rights in implementing climate change policy: Maoris must have a special category. This is a weird view of the population. I say weird; I mean racist.

On the economic effects on Maoris, the KCP (Kiwi Climate Propaganda) Ministry tells us that they haven’t bothered to measure the effects “on Maori businesses or households” but they’re really, really sure they will be affected and so “Maori households will have to be considered.” This wishy-washy analysis can satisfy nobody.

Overall, this was a dismal glimpse of the enormous bureaucracy being created for a bad climate policy that has no apparent reason to exist save mollifying overseas customers. Though I’ve never heard them complain or heard of sales being affected. Unless we nip it in the bud, it’ll stay for decades until Mother Nature exercises her veto by cooling things down, as scientists are predicting.

I asked a question but this article is too long. There’s more, so much more. As ever, what do you think?

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Brett KeaneAndyKillerBeanTony ClimieRichard Treadgold Recent comment authors
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Bulaman
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Bulaman

Defund the lot. Like free fees another pile of steaming shite we cannot afford!

Brett Keane
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Brett Keane

Thanks for the report. A done deal, the Hon James thinks. No doubt the Quiet Sun effects, such as below, will be explained away as the work of old white men again.
Wish I did have such power, Jimmy would soon know about it……
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/late-snowpack-signals-a-lost-summer-for-greenlands-shorebirds/
Been expecting this, and thankfully other scientists are coming out with numbers of not so biased papers, lots of them. MfE uses IPCC CMIPs, and I am working on promoting their statistical brokenness, but have some distance to travel yet. One idea is to bring the consequences of not using proper Stat Analysis home to all public figures and their minions who use them, in legal and fiduciary senses. My Stats Prof really made us understand the need to use professionals to handle our own research, realising that we spent years learning our science, but only a little of that on Stats. Just enough for getting a rough idea but maybe missing the proper methods to use depending on the nature and use of our data etc..

Mike Jowsey
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Mike Jowsey

Hopefully the voters will return a conservative government before the ship hits the sand. If they don’t the ship will hit the sand and NZ will become an impoverished, quaint little South Pacific curiosity. Then maybe the silent majority will speak.

Simon
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Simon

…until Mother Nature exercises her veto by cooling things down, as scientists are predicting.
What scientists?

Brett Keane
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Brett Keane

https://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/
A Northern perspective from near the ice……

Simon
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Simon

Several year old “Studies” predicting an imminent decline in temperature which never occurred. Nutters and charlatans who don’t even believe that there is a greenhouse effect. I thought you had a bit more common sense.

Andy
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Andy

There’s not much chance of a “conservative” government doing anything different, judging by this Tweet from Nat MP Nicola Willis
https://twitter.com/NicolaWillisMP/status/1018739030505091072

James Anthony (Tony) Climie
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James Anthony (Tony) Climie

Thank you for representing common sense and real science. This, from a retired geologist who worked around Viking encampments in the bitterly extreme (dangerous) mid-high Arctic of Canada in the seventies. And then, for 8 years while the Hockey Stick Graph was the IPCC banner, expected to believe that, actually, there was no Medieval Warming!
Tony Climie

Brett Keane
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Brett Keane

I have conducted the simplest basic experiments needed to test the CAGW myself, and find none. As the Gas Laws and the work of Maxwell, Wood, Hartmann, Klein etc. show, there to be none, and no physical basis for one. Gases are not solids, SB is inapplicable until the step into space. However, I will keep devising experiments and fining up my instrumental measurements. Unlike the name-calling kids they send against us these days…..
Tony, great to have your input.

Tony Climie
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Tony Climie

“in a good position to question the “disappearance” of the MWP” – “hard to explain the Viking presence in the Arctic without warming” Yes- a brutal climate today where we had to be extremely careful. It must have been a couple of degrees warmer globally in the MWP, perhaps more in the Arctic given their farming in Greenland. The experience got me interested in climate and, since then, my career intertwined several times with the “climate change” fiasco. When the Mann graph appeared about 1998, I knew straight away this could not be correct. I then had a ring-side seat for eight years as the persistent Canadians S. McIntyre and R. McKitrick exposed this travesty – both a frustrating and exciting period as they got closer and closer to exposing the graph as erroneous. As you no doubt know, Maurice Strong, a brilliant Canadian, once touted as future liberal party PM of Canada, but essentially blocked off by Pierre Trudeau, became a powerful UN mandarin instead, and key driver of the IPCC monster. As a young geo of little consequence, I met Strong at an environmental conference in Yellowknife, NWT, in 1976 (or… Read more »

KillerBean
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KillerBean

Tony, nice history you have, Im sure you will be an asset to RT (I always wanted to be a geologist).

Small world we live in, back in 80’s my dad was the head of recruitment for the CEGB.

I think you are right about Thatcher, she hated the miners with a vengeance. She started funding anything that could show coal to be bad. The UEA used that funding and came up with the hockey stick, had people realised the UEA is actually Norwich university they may not have put so much credence in the graph. Not like Norwich is Oxford or Cambridge.

Andy
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Andy

There is a Monty Python sketch called the Village Idiot sketch that features a “lecturer in idiocy”
from the University of East Anglia

Brett Keane
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Brett Keane

Richard, I guess I am saying both. I have an oven bag of pumped air and one of CO2 sitting on my bookshelf right now.. My own testing has need of much refinement before it can be definite. Each winter I take time to consider and work on it. But I/we have studied much work including of the folk cited above and have found no credible refutation. In atmospheres here and solar-system-wide, all good measurements show no room for ghe, which relies on water vapour magnification (not found) to do the job. Ditto the tropical Hotspot. The nature of gases constrained by gravity but not confined is what makes the Gas Laws rule. Not that I will argue but rather rely on progressive “empirical integration by God” as Einstein said; via cycles and Quiet Sun to settle things either way. https://archive.org/stream/theoryofheat00maxwrich#page/n349/mode/2up No Tricks Zone notes the blindness of IPCC yet again: 2012 123 papers had been published and ignored by IPCC 4AR In 2014, 93 papers were published. In 2015, 95 peer-reviewed papers were published In 2016, 133 papers were published. In 2017, 121 peer-reviewed solar papers were published. In 2018, so far,… Read more »

Brett Keane
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Brett Keane

Yup, here we go, it seems: http://www.climate4you.com/images/NOAA%20SST-NorthAtlantic%20GlobalMonthlyTempSince1979%20With37monthRunningAverage.gif

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/07/18/quote-of-the-week-from-curry-global-warming-hiatus-for-2-more-decades/
Perhaps empirical integration is actually occuring. Ignoring AMOC etc.,and Vikings (ivory trade may have been key to their presence and leaving), could be the downfall of warmism. Desperation is setting in, I would not be surprised. Brett, NZ

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