Greens blame “climate change” for Dunedin floods

Dunedin flood June 2015

Dunedin flooding. Apparently all our own work (click to exaggerate, I mean enlarge) – © 2015 Twitter

How predictable of them

When I saw this in my inbox after dinner, I couldn’t ignore it. Who cares about sleep (but thanks, Len).

The Dunedin flood is a result of climate change and the Government’s “inaction” on the issue, the Green Party says.

“The flooding in Dunedin highlights that the National Government needs to stop being the problem and start being part of the solution on climate change,” Green Party local government spokesperson Eugenie Sage said. “Since National came to power in 2008, New Zealand’s net emissions have increased by 13 percent; the scientific consensus is that increasing emissions will cause more extreme weather events.”

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) editor Professor Blair Fitzharris has said that, as global warming continues, Dunedin is likely to face more extreme rainfall events like those seen yesterday. He warned low-lying, densely-populated areas, coastal communities and major transport infrastructure including Dunedin airport will be particularly at risk from storm damage.

“Last month it was Wellington. Yesterday it was Dunedin. What region will suffer next from a lack of strong, cross-party leadership on the climate?” asked Ms Sage. [emphasis added]

Source: National News | TVNZ – h/t Len Mills

The Green Party gives us no science but they sure do some brainwashing as they try to turn natural climate variability into a political issue.

“The Dunedin flood is a result of climate change,” says Ms Sage. But only wild-eyed activists claim a particular weather event was caused by climate change. The way human activities may change the global climate is by a tiny warming we can only guess at—we don’t slow down the wind, alter ocean currents, shift the jet stream, stop the rain falling, create glaciers or exert any other detectable climatic influence of global significance.

Green Party doesn’t know – nobody does

But the matter is simpler than that. The globe hasn’t warmed for 20 years. Of a certainty, non-existent global warming didn’t cause yesterday’s flooding in Dunedin. The Green Party is wrong to imply that we caused it.

Then she confidently links New Zealand’s emissions with increased extreme weather events in general, even though the UN’s expert panel on climate change says it cannot be sure what will happen. Some extreme events might increase, some decrease, and many might go either way. The IPCC doesn’t know, but the Green Party does? I don’t think so.

New Zealand’s emissions are only 0.2% of global human emissions, which means the climate doesn’t know we’re here.

IPCC doesn’t know if floods will increase or decrease

Clearly, the Green Party’s local government spokeswoman doesn’t understand climate change. She really should glance through the IPCC report Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (pdf, 43.4 MB) and pick up a few facts. The report was published in 2012. From the Summary for Policy Makers (SPM) (pdf, 11.8 MB), published in 2011, we get the following sobering passages that are pertinent to the Greens’ comments on the Dunedin flood. [interesting parts highlighted]

There is medium confidence (based on physical reasoning) that projected increases in heavy rainfall would contribute to increases in local flooding, in some catchments or regions.

There is limited to medium evidence available to assess climate-driven observed changes in the magnitude and frequency of floods at regional scales because the available instrumental records of floods at gauge stations are limited in space and time, and because of confounding effects of changes in land use and engineering. Furthermore, there is low agreement in this evidence, and thus overall low confidence at the global scale regarding even the sign of these changes.

There have been statistically significant trends in the number of heavy precipitation events in some regions. It is likely that more of these regions have experienced increases than decreases, although there are strong regional and subregional variations in these trends.

There is medium confidence that anthropogenic influences have contributed to intensification of extreme precipitation on the global scale.

The IPCC expresses high confidence in nothing. Anyone spouting warnings based on these tepid assertions won’t get any help from the IPCC if things don’t turn out right, I mean wrong. Well, if things don’t turn out as predicted.

Eugenie Sage says “the scientific consensus is that increasing emissions will cause more extreme weather events” because she doesn’t know the truth. If it’s not true, it’s propaganda.

The remedy for propaganda is the truth: gently, accurately and firmly asserted.

Good luck, you all.

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Richard C (NZ)AndyPeter YatesRichard TreadgoldRon Recent comment authors
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Ron
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Ron

Hmm
A quick search came up with this fascinating site of extreme NZ rainfall data
http://www.nzextremerainfalls.com/

It does make the obligatory incantation in the introduction “As global warming brings more extreme and more frequent floods,….”) but states:

22 Apr 1923 Dunedin 230mm in 24 hours
19-20 Mar 1929 Ross Creek (Dunedin outskirts) 279mm in 24 hours
yesterday was 175mm in 24 hours

The ODT said it was double the previous record for a full day since records began ….. in 2006! (which actually referred to recording of rainfall in the city centre rather than Musselburgh)
http://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/344634/record-rainfall-city-awash

Peter Yates
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Peter Yates

There are photos of the 1923 and 1927 floods here :-
April 1923, Anzac Avenue, Central/North Dunedin :
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10206754651085532&set=pcb.876431069088767&type=1&theater
13 May 1923, Leith over-flowing at HarbourTerrace, North Dunedin :
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10206754651125533&set=pcb.876431069088767&type=1&theater
1927, South Dunedin :
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10206754650525518&set=pcb.876431069088767&type=1&theater
In 1927 South Dunedin was mostly farmland. This is what the recent flooding would look like without the roads, buildings, and storm water pumps.

I guess being in the 1920’s they were not caused by climate change, or global warming for that matter! 😉

Andy
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Andy

All new legislation would be subject to a “climate change test” if a Green Party bill is passed.

New Green Party co-leader James Shaw announced a members bill on Sunday, which would require official documents assessing the impact of new legislation to include a section about the impact on the environment.

The Climate Impact Disclosure Statement Bill will require all new legislation introduced to Parliament to be accompanied by a Climate Impact Disclosure Statement that “outlines what impact, if any, the new legislation would be likely to have on New Zealand’s greenhouse gas emissions”.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/69371923/green-party-wants-climate-test-for-new-laws

Every new law?

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Every new law?

Yes. Like ANY amendment to ALL of these (not just the 2 you might think):

Resource Management Act 1991
Companies Act 1993
Crimes Act 1961
Employment Relations Act 2000
Income Tax Act 2007
Health and Safety in Employment Act 1992
Privacy Act 1993
High Court Rules
Building Act 2004
Residential Tenancies Act 1986

http://www.legislation.govt.nz/

And moving on to………

Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism Act 2009

Followed by stuff like……..

Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism (Class Exemptions) Notice 2014

http://www.pco.parliament.govt.nz/2014-legislative-instruments/

It’s all about climate change Andy.

Andy
Guest
Andy

Today is the 800th anniversary of the signing on Magna Carta, a document which gave people the rights to limit the scope of government

Seems appropriate on this thread

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

‘Huge waves smash Wellington rubberneckers amid fears for coastal roads’ survival’

The capital’s mayor, Celia Wade-Brown, told Fairfax Media this morning that Wellington’s south coast roads were under increasing threat of large swells because of global warming.

[Also on TV1 News interview]

http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/huge-waves-smash-wellington-rubberneckers-amid-fears-coastal-roads-survival-6338124

Huh?

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

So immediately after TV1 had Celia Wade-Brown prattling about “increasing threat of large swells because of global warming” at Wellington, weather presenter Dan Corbett was on repeating “cold air” over and over for the timeframe covering the actual large swells presently occurring at Wellington.

High for Wellington 10, low 5.

Actual cold air => actual large swells
Warm air threat => large swells threat

The warming threat seems somewhat redundant to me.

Andy
Guest
Andy

The guy from NIWA was claiming that there is a trend of increasing wave height in NZ
Is there any evidence to back this up?

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

And on warming and drought from the respective iconic poster zones – the “rapidly warming Arctic” and the “Western Drought”:

‘Record Cold In Southwest Greenland Continues’

Southwest Greenland is having their coldest year on record [Nuuk, 240 km south of the Arctic Circle]
This is due to very cold water in the North Atlantic

https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2015/06/14/record-cold-in-southwest-greenland-continues/

And,

‘Eight Weeks Since Huffington Post Announced The End Of Western [US] Water’

Massive rainfall floods streets throughout Denver metro area.
Much of the Southwest and Great Plains are much wetter than normal.

https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2015/06/13/eight-weeks-since-huffington-post-announced-the-end-of-western-water/

# # #

I don’t know how the warmies keep their heads straight with all this conflicting climate change going on, let alone their stories.

Andy
Guest
Andy

Lyall Bay in Wellington points due south and gets hammered by any storm in the area.
What has “climate change” got to do with this?

Furthermore, if NIWA are so concerned, why is their office at sea level in Evans Bay?

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”Is there any evidence to back this up?” [guy from NIWA was claiming that there is a trend of increasing wave height in NZ] Not for NZ specifically, just modeling and no mention of trends: “Very little monitoring of wave conditions has been carried out around New Zealand. Consequently, to assess wave climate and derive probabilities of extreme wave conditions, use is made of computer models to hindcast wave conditions from past wind conditions over a sufficient period of time (decades).” http://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/climate-change/coastal-hazards-and-climate-change-guidance-manual-local-government-ne-6 But globally yes there is observational satellite evidence: ‘Wind and waves getting stronger and bigger’ NZ Herald, Jun 11, 2011 According to a major study undertaken by researchers at Swinburne University of Technology in Melbourne, oceanic wind speeds and wave heights have increased significantly over the last quarter of a century. …. The researchers analysed satellite data over a 23-year period from 1985 to 2008. “We found a general global trend of increasing values of wind speed and, to a lesser degree, wave height over this period. “The rate of increase for extreme events was most significant.” The data showed that wind speeds over the majority of the world’s oceans increased… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”Effect, but no mention of a cause mechanism” Might be the apocalypse on the way, “the seas and the waves roaring” is Jesus Christ’s Olivet prophecy e.g. Luke 21:25&26 KJV: “25 And there will be signs in the sun, in the moon, and in the stars: and on earth distress of nations, with perplexity, the seas and the waves roaring; 26 men’s hearts failing them from fear and expectation of those things that are coming on the earth, for the powers of the heavens will be shaken.” The Catholic Douay-Rheims version reads: 25 And there shall be signs in the sun, and in the moon, and in the stars; and upon the earth distress of nations, by reason of the confusion of the roaring of the sea and of the waves; 26 Men withering away for fear, and expectation of what shall come upon the whole world. For the powers of heaven shall be moved; So how will the Pope’s encyclical deal with this (if at all): Attribute to man’s evil fossil fuel emissions; or, Attribute to divine plan? Something of a dilemma for this “Green Pope” – Gaia or God. But I’m… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”Effect, but no mention of a cause mechanism” The article does allude to something (not sure what): ……….as Professor Young explains, winds and waves control “the flux of energy” from the atmosphere to the ocean. “Therefore, understanding whether their parameters are changing on a global scale is very important.” I think this is back to front and inside out i.e. wrong (perhaps the reporter misconstrued), should be: “the flux of [atmospheric] energy” controls winds and waves. In other words the energy flux is not primarily atmosphere to ocean, it is primarily bulk horizontal fluid motion in the atmosphere i.e. advection, from Wiki: “In physics, engineering, and earth sciences, advection is a transport mechanism of a substance or conserved property by a fluid due to the fluid’s bulk motion.” Advection is a natural phenomenon. It is only at the atmosphere-ocean interface that the horizontal bulk air fluid motion transfers some energy to the ocean surface in the form of horizontal waves. So the question is: what drives atmospheric advection? ‘Advection: transport of something from one region to another’ University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign The term advection refers to the transport of something from one… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”The largest 1 per cent increased by an average of 0.5 per cent every year” Without the graphed data we don’t know if it is actually essentially linear. Remember this is climate science, there could be non-linear fluctuations all over the shop resulting in a factoral change of 0.115 over 23 years (23 x 0.005) but not necessarily linear in nature. The example of the top 1 per cent of waves off south-west Australia (six metres……..over one metre higher than in 1985) is a factoral change of a little over 0.2 over 23 years, or 0.0087 or 0.87% per year but so what? The chances of that exact change occurring each year are exceedingly slim and I doubt very much they did. I suspect the data is anything but linear either globally or regionally. Just one spike or shift can distort a linear trend (think ’98 El Nino and temperature). What was the average wave height 1985 – 1994 compared to the average of 1999 – 2008 for example? And then compared to the middle period 1992 – 2001? What is the profile of a curve trend? Things are not always what climate… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”Without the graphed data we don’t know if it is actually essentially linear” >”I suspect the data is anything but linear either globally or regionally” The paper can be accessed via Google Scholar (search the title): Global trends in wind speed and wave height IR Young, S Zieger, AV Babanin – Science, 2011 – sciencemag.org The paper states (page 4 and 5 pdf): The present analysis is aimed at determining whether there is a linear trend over the period of the observations (approximately 23 years). It does not necessarily follow that the observed trends are a result of, for instance, global warming. Indeed, interannual-to-decadal variations of the high-latitude wind belts have been observed, and Hemer et al. (28) have shown that the wave climate in the Southern Hemisphere is influenced by the Southern Annular Mode. A regression analysis between the monthly mean altimeter significant wave height and the Southern Annual Mode <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< [SAM again Andy] Index showed a weak correlation, with a correlation coefficient up to 0.4 across large areas of the Southern Ocean. Similar interannual variations have also been shown to be correlated with wave heights in the North Atlantic (5, 10,… Read more »

Andy
Guest
Andy

So, to summarise, the TVOne News mentioned “climate change” several times, yet the only actual scientist from NIWA who was interviewed cited an unnamed study that waves were getting bigger (by an unspecified amount, in the piece)

Even Simon Dallow weighed in with his “opinion” that the storm in Wellington was partially attributed to “climate change” (whatever that is)

News anchors used to be impartial.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”Simon Dallow weighed in”

Yes I just caught that little snippet too. I think his exact words were “climate change is a factor”.

BTW, the direct link to the wave height paper quoted above is here (omitted on-the-fly previously):

Global trends in wind speed and wave height
IR Young, S Zieger, AV Babanin – Science, 2011
http://xa.yimg.com/kq/groups/1120673/1365251949/name/Science-2011-Young-451-5.pdf

Wellington has a slightly negative trend (light blue) in Fig 1.

Simon Dallow – wrong.
Celia Wade-Brown – wrong.
NIWA guy – wrong.

According to the scientific literature anyway, but then who reads that other then deniers?

Andy
Guest
Andy

Willem de Lange had his say on Radio NZ

http://podcast.radionz.co.nz/panel/panel-20150615-1623-storm_surge-048.mp3

which the usual suspects were furiously tweeting their disapproval of

Andy
Guest
Andy

*Phew*, thankfully de Lange’s “nonsense” has been rebutted by a “real” climate scientist James Renwick who says that

People may need to abandon coastal properties within a generation because of extreme weather events, a Victoria University climate change scientist says

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/276351/coastal-properties-under-threat-scientist

Presumably Wellington are planning to relocate the airport and NIWA are planning to move away from Evans Bay, or maybe I’m missing something here.

Meanwhile, in sunny Brighton, it was a lovely morning for a run on the beach with the dog, and not a sign of extreme weather at all.

Extreme weather just washes up more sticks, anyway, so she thinks it is great!

Andy
Guest
Andy

Summarising the morning report piece above, greater storm surges are driven partly by sea level rise (1.5 mm/ year) and greater wave heights as modelled by NIWA with sketchy physical data

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

From NIWA webpage: ‘New Zealand surrounded by the biggest waves on the planet’ 1 June 2011 New Zealand is bang in the middle of the biggest and wildest waters on the planet: the Southern Ocean. Many of New Zealand’s coasts and coastal communities are already facing the impact of rising sea levels. Will the future see even bigger storms and waves, putting our increasingly intensive development of coastal areas dramatically at risk? Faced with this scenario, NIWA scientists are using special modelling techniques to build a long record of wave conditions from which they can predict future wave conditions. […] In the first stage of the research, a 45-year long hindcast of wave conditions around New Zealand was created using a numerical model. The model takes wind data from the European Centre for Medium ange Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), one of the main agencies for weather forecasting around the globe, and from this it can simulate waves over the long timescales the scientists need. The resulting wave statistics have been tested for accuracy and calibrated by comparison with satellite data and with records from a global set of wave buoys. […] In the next… Read more »

Andy
Guest
Andy

NigelJ at Hot Topic is suggesting that de Lange be sacked.

On what grounds?

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

NIWA’s wave projection project was being promised in 2010: ‘Wave and storm-surge projections (WASP)’ Published: 1 October 2010 NIWA contacts: Dr Scott Stephens, Dr Rob Bell, Dr Emily Lane NIWA is working on an MSI (formerly FRST)-funded project to produce a model, validated by 40 years of historic data, to project future wave and storm surges off the coast for two climate change scenarios. This will be at a nationally consistent scale around New Zealand and will help decision makers plan for future hazards. We intend to make the results available in an online tool, and are looking for feedback about what people want from this. http://www.niwa.co.nz/coasts-and-oceans/research-projects/wave-and-storm-surge-projections-wasp I can’t find WASP on NIWA’s Tools and resources page but there is this: ‘Coasts and Oceans tools and resources’ http://www.niwa.co.nz/coasts-and-oceans/tools-and-resources Canterbury wave conditions NIWA runs a computer model which simulates wave heights across the Canterbury continental shelf and along the coast. NIWA offers a more advanced wave forecast for the Southwest Pacific and Southern Ocean as a commercial service, contact Richard Gorman for further information. For the Canterbury model, [continues] http://www.niwa.co.nz/our-services/online-services/canterbury-wave-conditions # # # OK, so WASP is a commercial service from NIWA based on… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Thomas June 15, 2015 at 5:24 pm [Hot Topic]

“De Lange completely denies the Elephant in the discussion: What will happen to our coast with regards to storm surges and erosion is the sea will rise during this century and the next to come.
As reported, a 5m sea level rise caused by climate change is now inevitable and we may well see 1m or more by the end of this century already.”

http://hot-topic.co.nz/nzs-paris-emissions-commitments-should-be-40-by-2030-and-100-or-more-by-2050/#comment-46385

Heh, some elephant. A pink hallucination I’m thinking.

Wellington Harbour historical PSMSL trend 1945 – 2013 inclusive (7 decades, includes 1990 IPCC projection start note) : 25.2 mm/decade.

25.2 x 11 decades = 0.28m 1990 – 2100.

That’s an elephant 1/4 the size of Thomas’s. And nobody noticed the 0.18m baby elephant in the room over the last 7 decades.

Andy
Guest
Andy

Sorry O/T again but Mark Steyn has outdone himself in his latest rip-snorter
http://www.steynonline.com/7005/the-new-minstrelsy

He gets stuck into just about everyone in the news this week AND manages to insult Michael Mann again, whilst still having a pending lawsuit for defamation.

Absolutely outstanding!

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”Something of a dilemma for this “Green Pope” – Gaia or God”

Pope’s Leaked Encyclical: Pope goes Gaia… Mother Earth, brother sun, sister moon… oh my.

https://twitter.com/JunkScience/status/610553419930173440/photo/1

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Pope’s Leaked Encyclical: CO2 emissions are apparently a ‘despotic anthropocentrism.’

https://twitter.com/JunkScience/status/610550723277910018/photo/1

Pope’s Leaked Encyclical: Pope says God wants a regulatory system to preserve God’s dreams for the planet. Oh boy…

https://twitter.com/JunkScience/status/610546811854569472/photo/1

From Tom Nelson’s Twitter feed: https://twitter.com/tan123

Andy
Guest
Andy

The Pope was also claiming that the world was overpopulated the other day.

My irony meter was redlining hearing that from the Catholic Church.

Andy
Guest
Andy

Note that the leftists who support AGW orthodoxy, usually atheist (as they do, following the religion of Marxism) are now jumping on this Pope bandwagon.

It’s great when you can just make it up as you go along and hold contradictory views at the same time…

Andy
Guest
Andy

I see that RT’s comment at Hot Topic has been curtly dismissed. Willem de Lange is an expert on coastal erosion amongst other things. Is the fact that he didn’t parrot the politically correct mantra yet preferred to focus on his own findings a sackable offence? In a sane world, the answer would clearly be no, but we don’t live in a sane world anymore. Tim Hunt FRS and Nobel Prize winner got sacked from all his positions for cracking a rather lame joke about women in labs. In Canada, you can be fined $10,000 and fired from your job for making comments in favour of traditional (vs same sex) marriage In Sweden, a man was given a suspended prison sentence for making the observation that the rape crisis in that country may have something to do with the massive immigration from countries where women are treated as second class citizens (the sentence was non-custodial because it was a first offence. Don’t try that again pal) We should be thankful for Mark Steyn for doubling down on Michael Mann in his campaign for free speech, which our rights for are being eroded at… Read more »

Andy
Guest
Andy

If you listen to the podcast from Will de Lange on the storm events, he makes some quite interesting observations.

i.e that the coastal storms occur in clusters that seem to have no correlation with any climatic trends that they can discern

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