UPDATE NZDT 1845 Monday 7 March
My apologies. There were distractions while I was writing this post that caused a silly error: I mistook the author of the post I wanted to report on. Richard Cumming alerted me to it (thanks, RC) and the references are now corrected. Insertions shown by .
The trickery has been going on for years. First, an alarmist paper will describe details of a hitherto unknown peril of man-made global warming. The media picks it up and circulates it for months. Then, maybe years later, once our selfish ruin of the environment is established, a rebuttal comes out, showing the peril is against the laws of physics.
But does the rebuttal get the fanfare of trumpets that greets the warmy paper? Not likely. The media ignore it, so nobody knows about it and the climate gravy train rattles happily on.
But now a central warmy myth is destroyed — and a more important rebuttal of the preposterous human climate ruination theory would be hard to imagine. For the new analysis contradicts fundamental forecasts of “extreme weather events … such as drought, flooding, cold spells, and heat waves” that underpin the climate scare.
Genuine reason to celebrate – if only we were told about it
These are not new things, of course. Extreme weather events have been happening for millenia, but they represent most of the bad things we fear from global warming. They would endanger lives and infrastructure and gravely reduce food production, hinder transport and travel, and raise anxiety everywhere. Elimination of these potential perils is greatly to be desired.
Now the threat of those perils has been removed, humanity has true cause to celebrate—except that most people won’t be told about it.
On 17 March 2012 Geophysical Research Letters published “Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes“, by Jennifer A. Francis and Stephen J. Vavrus. That paper was updated on 6 January 2015 by Evidence for a wavier jet stream in response to rapid Arctic warming published in Environmental Research Letters.
Four days ago Dr Ed Berry published A Warming Arctic Would Not Cause Increased Severe Weather or Temperature Extremes
(Berry 2016), , in which he contradicts the claims made in Francis and Vavrus 2012.
Contradicting warmist alarm
[Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes, by Jennifer A. Francis and Stephen J. Vavrus (2012)] FV (2012) is fatally flawed, incorrect and should be withdrawn by the authors. As shown here, there is no theoretical basis in which to ground FV (2012). Using the proper Rossby wave physics as illustrated here, these atmospheric waves (or commonly called planetary atmospheric waves that generate low and high pressure systems that create our weather, severe and otherwise) behave in the opposite fashion as claimed in FV (2012).
A warming Arctic that is supposed to be weakening the westerly wind belt across the northern hemisphere would create an entirely different effect on the earth’s weather [than] FV (2012) claims. If FV (2012) claims were true, the physics governing these waves would require them to flatten in amplitude and migrate to a higher latitude, causing a much weakened effect on the Northern Hemisphere’s weather patterns.
If FV 2012 claims were true, precipitation systems would weaken and migrate northward with the migrating jet stream. Storms, severe and otherwise would become far less common than today and would be replaced with problematic drought and much higher surface absolute and relative humidities. This increased low level moisture would lead to sporadic showers and thunderstorms in an ever expanding maritime tropical airmass environment, but not enough precipitation to forestall severe droughts.
Sounds like this has been in the textbooks for decades. Why only now does a scientist explain the physics to us, or why has it taken we amateurs so long to notice it? This is deadly to the panic stirred up by the warmies, like so much else that has been surfacing lately.
But is it true?
In comments on
Berry 2016, one Erl Happ appears to speak knowledgeably and says that the authors of these papers appear to have a weak grasp of reality. “Neither is in a position to describe cause and effect.” Which is a stiff-armed challenge indeed.
It’s a big job, but would it be too much to hope an objective meteorologist or atmospheric scientist might scan the arguments and equations in both Francis and Vavrus 2012 and
Berry 2016, and express an opinion on their worth? What do you think?
h/t to Richard Cumming and Not a Lot Of People Know That