One magical month means global warming

For 225 months there was no warming to speak of, then in February the latest giant El Nino kicked in and the world went mad.

Jo Nova describes it wickedly well: “one Hot Month is the signal and years of The Pause is just noise.” She points out that in 18 years climate models got one month right. Hah!

Many alarms being sounded, guilt piling up on western nations for their wicked productivity and climate science distorted beyond belief.

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LukesAreWrongToo
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LukesAreWrongToo

Josef Loschmidt (Maxwell’s teacher) was the first to realistically determine the size of air molecules – quite a feat in the 19th century. There is no correct peer-reviewed published refutation of his gravito-thermal effect, which is based on and derived directly from the Second Law of Thermodynamics, that law also never proven incorrect. There’s a US $7,500 reward offered at https://itsnotco2.wordpress.com if you or any reader can prove me wrong and produce a study confirming water vapor warms to the extent implied by the IPCC. Furthermore, the Loschmidt effect is now proven empirically in hundreds of 21st century experiments. The existence of this gravitationally induced temperature gradient means the IPCC doesn’t have a leg to stand on regarding CO2. Hence there is no need for James Hansen’s guesswork that radiation from a cold atmosphere must be heating an already-warmer surface, because it is the force of gravity acting on molecules between collisions that produces both a density gradient and a temperature gradient. The Second Law of Thermodynamics tells us that in Nature there is an autonomous propensity for a system to move towards the state of thermodynamic equilibrium, which state has maximum entropy.… Read more »

Andy
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Andy

Assuming that “Lukes” is Doug Cotton, then this discussion is likely to be one way.

Unfortunately, Roy Spencer has disabled comments on his blog because of this gentleman

It does seem a bit harsh, but comment threads were being filled up

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

One exceptional month (a spike) in the Northern Hemisphere means “global” and “warming”.

They (Schmidt, Rahmstorf, Sherwood, Foster et al) will look silly when the heat dissipates to space, as it normally does i.e. neutral conditions resume once the El Nino has passed. ENSO-neutral GMST is critical to the man-made climate change conjecture from 2015 – 2020. The conjecture is already falsified by the IPCC’s primary TOA criteria, next comes secondary surface temperature which TOA energy imbalnce “controls” (IPCC). If there’s no radical ENSO-neutral warming by 2020 then all the CO2-forced forecasts will be way out of the model range and demonstrably wrong, along with the conjecture.

What were the factors in the NH?

This insurance report says NAO in addition to El Nino:

‘2015 Global Insured Losses Lowest Since 2009 Despite El Niño Effects: Carpenter’

“One of the strongest El Niño periods on record and a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation were the climate drivers in 2015 ……”

http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2016/03/25/403052.htm

But is the AO another factor for example, or AMO?

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Should be:

>”If there’s no radical ENSO-neutral warming by 2020 then [observations] will be way out of [all the CO2-forced forecast] model range and demonstrably wrong, along with the conjecture.

I’ve started night-shift.

LukesAreWrongToo
Guest
LukesAreWrongToo

As I predicted in 2011, the “pause” will continue until at least 2027 and 500 years of cooling lies ahead starting later this century. Dr Spencer’s March 2016 temperature data is now available. Note that the red line (the annual moving average that eliminates seasonal effects) is still not as high as the maximum in 1998 and the El Nino spike is past its maximum. Click the link below to see details. http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_March_2016_v6-1.jpg Don’t be misled by the data from ground based weather stations. Those that have not warmed get eliminated, whilst those that have not been affected by urban crawl warming have their rate of warming adjusted upwards. It is all FRAUDULENT science. Trust only Dr Spencer’s satellite data. Reducing carbon dioxide will not help the environment because it cools rather than warms and it enhances agricultural production and growth of everything from flowers to forests. There is no valid science supporting the radiative forcing greenhouse garbage for the gullible. The Second law of thermodynamics says: “In a natural thermodynamic process, the sum of the entropies of the interacting thermodynamic systems increases.” Hence, for the natural thermodynamic process that is a one-way… Read more »

LukesAreWrongToo
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LukesAreWrongToo

Few people have PhD’s in climatology, so when Dr Hans Jelbring (one who has) strongly supports what I have said I would suggest you ought to heed this new 21st century breakthrough in our understanding of planetary temperatures and heat transfer mechanisms. So please note this strong support from Dr Hans Jelbring (PhD climatology) in an email I received last month reading … “Dear all, Including politicians, laymen and scientists. I am strongly supporting what Doug is writing below based on the fact being one of few scientists who actually have a doctorate in climatology. All of you who believe in authority should believe what Doug is saying below which is according to my own research and what some qualified scientists have told since many years. …. I would also like to give credit to Doug Cotton who never seems to give up in his fight against ignorance among both politicians and scientists.” Note also the following review of my book .. Doug Cotton shows how simple thermodynamic physics implies that the gravitational field of a planet will establish a thermal gradient in its atmosphere. The thermal gradient, a basic property of a… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Must read on El Nino:

‘How Much Of Global Temperature Increase Is Due To El Niño?’

Guest opinion: Dr. Tim Ball, April 3, 2016

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/04/03/how-much-of-global-temperature-increase-is-due-to-el-nino/

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Re Tim Ball article, the important part is this: The pattern of Arctic weather and ice conditions this [2016] winter is somewhat similar, albeit not as extreme [as 1871]. The Rossby Wave Meridional flow resulted in anomalous wind patterns, ocean currents and ice conditions. It is probable that this added heat raised the global average that was not a result of El Nino. Figure 8 shows the average pattern of Arctic winds and ocean currents. The main influx of warm water is the North Atlantic Drift. Figure 9 shows the percentage concentration of ice for April 2, 2016, and Figure 10 shows the ice cover for April 1, 2016, with a delineation of the anomaly from the average. The increased melting, especially in the Russian sector due to greater heat transport by wind and water from the Meridional Wave pattern is apparent. This heat is not due to El Nino but does add to the global average. Given the spacial location of the latest GMST spike (high NH latitudes) and Tim Ball’s dissertation, I’m now convinced this El Nino was minor in terms of contribution to GMST. Too many people have been suckered… Read more »

Andy
Guest
Andy

I saw a missing comment for a while. It is usually a caching problem and goes away after a while

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Gareth Renowden was rattled by this from my comment upthread (this “One Magical Month” thread) : Too many people have been suckered by the GMST illusion. Climate scientist aiding the suckering are Schmidt, Rahmstorf, Sherwood, Foster, et al. Mann was suckered by Schmidt and Rahmstorf.</blockquote" You can see his reaction here: http://hot-topic.co.nz/februarys-global-temperature-spike-is-a-wake-up-call/#comment-47514 Except Nigel on the same thread sees it differently (abbrev.): nigelj says: April 4, 2016 at 10:46 am Richard I gather your point somehow relates to Manns comment that the current big 2015 temperature spike is largely agw and only minimally el nino. Then I would agree coming years would be expected to be very warm as well. However there will likely be a few cool la nina years shortly, however the coming ten years would need to be very warm to confirm the claim by Mann. But only time will tell, and in no way is it impossible. http://hot-topic.co.nz/februarys-global-temperature-spike-is-a-wake-up-call/#comment-47510 I wasn’t referring to Mann because Mann was just relaying what he had read others saying (see upthread). I was referring to Schmidt, Rahmstorf, Sherwood, Foster et al. Nigel, to his credit, agrees “only time will tell”. Not so Gareth. He… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Should be:

>”The acid test is on AGW now, Busted at TOA, if no radical warming by [2020], busted at surface too.”

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”I wasn’t referring to Mann because Mann was just relaying what he had read others saying (see upthread).”

That “upthread” comment with Mann quote has gone AWOL. The quote is in this SkS post:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/why-is-2016-smashing-heat-records.html

Mann wasn’t speaking his own mind, he was channeling Schmidt et al.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Re Schmidt, Rahmstorf, Sherwood, Foster et al. and their attribution of AGW to the 2015/16 GMST spike.

Their collective position is encapsulated by the UKMO’s 5 yr “decadal” forecast to 2020:

UKMO 5 yr forecast
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/image/q/o/fig3_dp2015_fcst_global_t.png

Their collective credibility along with the UKMO’s, irrespective of what Gareth Renowden thinks, is wholly reliant on GMST tracking the UKMO forecast (blue zone).

Given the UKMO’s annual 5 yr forecasts have been serially wrong year after year in respect to ENSO-neutral observations, the chances of them being right this time are remote (to say the least).

The ENSO-neutral trajectory of GMST is along the bottom of the green zone. There’s no reason for this to change radically for about a decade. The difference this El Nino year is the Arctic factor (El Nino contribution minor IMO). But excess Arctic heat dissipates just as excess El Nino heat dissipates.

If “heat trapping greenhouse gasses” didn’t trap past El Nino heat (they didn’t), there’s no reason to believe they will trap any heat this time around either, Arctic factor or not.

Glen Maguire
Guest

It’s been like 30 degrees and snowing for the past week in the Midwest in the US, so I think that should cancel out the unusually warm February. I mean, if a warm February proves global warming, does snow in April disprove it? I’m not terribly familiar with the rules for this game.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Warmies have the luxury of being able to pick and choose their most alarming GMST series depending on the headline required. For March it’s JMA in the Guardian: ‘March temperature smashes 100-year global record’ Average global temperature was 1.07C hotter – beating last month’s previous record increase The global temperature in March has shattered a century-long record and by the greatest margin yet seen for any month. February was far above the long-term average globally, driven largely by climate change, and was described by scientists as a “shocker” and signalling “a kind of climate emergency”. But data released by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) shows that March was even hotter. Compared with the 20th-century average, March was 1.07C hotter across the globe, according to the JMA figures, while February was 1.04C higher. The JMA measurements go back to 1891 and show that every one of the past 11 months has been the hottest ever recorded for that month. [See JMA graph. NOTE that it is a MARCH-only series] http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/apr/15/march-temperature-smashes-100-year-global-record Except then the article pulls in GISTEMP for February but the respective series have different anomaly baselines and differing margins, so the narrative becomes… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

‘Earth’s temperature just shattered the thermometer’

[Schmidt] – “I estimate [a greater than] 99 percent chance of an annual record in 2016,”

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11625515

In the Southern Extratropics too? GISTEMP has not been at record levels in SH Extratropics over recent years.

Just another Wash Post beat up regurgitated by the NZ Herald, and a chance for Schmidt to make asinine statements.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

A challenge warmies WILL NOT RESPOND TOO (ae.g. Hot Topic):

How much of the heat released by the 2015/16 El Nino spike will be “trapped” in the troposphere by “heat trapping greenhouse gasses”:

A) Most of it according to climate scientists Schmidt, Rahmstorf, Sherwood, Foster, Mann, in particular [also UKMO], who have claimed the bulk of the El Nino spike for AGW/MMCC (yes we have that on record) ?, or

B) None of it according to the Kelvin-Planck statement of the Second Law of Thermodynamics (in respect to heat sinks – space in this case).

Joe Bastardi, Weatherbell, Tweets (see NCEP graph):

“Some sharp temp drops showing up in temps now as el nino rapidly backs off. Well forecasted spike, cooling starting”

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/725874820332830720

Not looking good for the climate scientists – all that AGW/MMCC attributed “warming” is now “cooling”.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”Not looking good for the climate scientists – all that AGW/MMCC attributed “warming” is now “cooling”.” NZ Herald is still wallowing in the “warming”, alarming too apparently: ‘Gwynne Dyer: Climate tipping point could be here’ Monday May 2, 2016 Signs indicate we’ve reached the threshold scientists fear, heralding abrupt and irreversible change. If you spend a lot of time talking to scientists about climate change, there’s one word you’ll hear time and time again, and yet it’s hardly ever mentioned in the public discussion of climate change. The word is “non-linear”. Most people think of global warming as an incremental thing. It may be inexorable, but it’s also predictable. Alas, most people are wrong. The climate is a very complex system, and complex systems can change in non-linear ways. In other words, you cannot count on the average global temperature rising steadily but slowly as we pump more and more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. It may do that – but there may also be a sudden jump in the average global temperature that lands you in a world of hurt. That may be happening now. “We are moving into uncharted territory with… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Simon’s sarcasm (referring to kiwifruit season): SimonP says: March 24, 2016 at 8:38 pm “…..has picking been delayed by the lack of warmth in the southern hemisphere?” http://hot-topic.co.nz/februarys-global-temperature-spike-is-a-wake-up-call/#comment-47408 # # # Upthread, Joe Bastardi Tweeted this NCEP graph to 29 April by Dr Ryan Maue (WeatherBELL) showing the southern hemisphere anomaly: The SH anomaly at end of April is now only fractionally above the 1981 – 2010 Climatology baseline and about 0.3°C COOLER than October 2015 at the start of the series. In the same Tweet thread Climate News posted another NCEP graph, stating: “2-meter global T. anomaly down 0.5°C since Feb” Another 0.25°C and the 21st Century “Hiatus” will be back. Another 0.5°C and the anomaly would be at the 1981 – 2010 Climatology baseline (i.e. no warming at all in this climate regime spanning 35+ years). NZ’s warm temperatures at present are not typical of the SH. There is a distinct “lack of warmth in the southern hemisphere” as per NCEP contrary to Simon’s Sarc. The NH anomaly hasn’t moved much yet which skews the global metric. Even so, global T is back where it was in March 2015. The window… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Tangang: Powerful El Niño Not Due To Climate Change

May 9, 2016

There is no concrete evidence linking the powerful El Niño Pacific Ocean warming event to climate change, says leading climate scientist Fredolin Tangang.

“El Niño is a naturally occurring phenomenon, which is part of the inter-annual variability associated with oscillation of the atmosphere-ocean interaction in the Pacific Ocean that occurs in a two- to seven-year cycle,” he explained.

http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/2016/05/09/el-nino-not-due-to-climate-change/

# # #

Poke in the eye for Schmidt, Rahmstorf, Sherwood, Foster, Mann, and the UK Met Office.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Leftover Warm Water Fuelled El Niño Posted By: Site Admin May 9, 2016 Leftover warm water in Pacific Ocean fuelled the recent massive El Niño. A similar event occurred in 1990. That year, easterly winds counteracted a budding El Niño, and leftover warm water fuelled El Niño conditions in 1991 to 1992. From the American Geophysical Union A new study provides insight into how the current El Niño, one of the strongest on record, formed in the Pacific Ocean. The new research finds easterly winds in the tropical Pacific Ocean stalled a potential El Niño in 2014 and left a swath of warm water in the central Pacific. The presence of that warm water stacked the deck for a monster El Niño to occur in 2015, according to the study’s authors. […] Abstract Following strong westerly wind bursts in boreal winter and spring of 2014, both the scientific community and the popular press were abuzz with the possibility of a major El Niño developing. However, during the boreal summer of 2014, the Bjerknes feedback failed to kick in, aided and abetted by a strong easterly wind burst. The widely anticipated major 2014-5 El… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

UAH: April 2016 Was Fourth Warmest Month

Posted By: Site Admin May 3, 2016

Global atmospheric temperatures as measured by satellite instruments and analysed by UAH made April 2016 the fourth warmest month in the satellite temperature record, but only the second warmest April behind April 1998.

http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/2016/05/03/april-2016/

RSS: April 2016 Second Warmest April

Posted By: Site Admin May 4, 2016

Global atmospheric temperatures in April 2016 as measured by satellite instruments and analysed by RSS shows that it was the second warmest April and fourth warmest month since satellite monitoring began.

http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/2016/05/04/690/

# # #

Not much for the warmies to crow about from now on. Even ending at the peak El Nino data the RSS TLT trend is only 0.130 K/decade. It’ll be back to “Hiatus” by the end of the year i.e. an even lessor linear trend over the entire RSS series and flat this century.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Global warming not behind El Ninos, says former-IPCC chair Written by Thomas Richard, Examiner.com on 09 May 2016. The IPCC’s former vice chair told Malaysian news outlets today that while the naturally occurring El Niño of 2015-2016 was very powerful, global warming did not play a role. Dr. Fredolin Tangang of the University of Malaysia/Kebangsaan also said that even though this El Niño was one of the strongest recorded since recordkeeping began, there was no evidence that global warming was causing El Niños to become more frequent or more intense. An oceanographer and climatologist, Prof. Tangang served on the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as its vice-chairman from 2008 to 2015. http://www.climatechangedispatch.com/global-warming-not-behind-el-ninos-says-former-ipcc-chair.html 2016 El Nino Not Linked To Global Warming, Says Former IPCC Vice-Chairman Written by Dr. Benny Peiser, GWPF, guest post on 09 May 2016. The current El Nino phenomenon that has brought prolonged drought and sweltering heat to Malaysia is the strongest of the 20 over the last 60 years, but there is no concrete evidence to link its heat intensity to global warming, says former IPCC vice-chairman. Climatologist and oceanographer Prof Dr Fredolin Tangang of Universiti Kebangsaan… Read more »

Simon
Guest
Simon

As usual, there is no logical inconsistency between these statements except within your own mind.
El Nino frequency and intensity is not directly affected by AGW but AGW does increase the temperature
anomaly. Here is a nice little animation to mull over.
http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/files/2016/05/spiral_optimized.gif

Andy
Guest
Andy

I get 404 Not Found when I click on Simon’s link.

A bit like the “missing heat”

Andy
Guest
Andy

I think the animation that Simon refers to can be found here:
https://twitter.com/ed_hawkins/status/729753441459945474

Of course, the fact that temperature anomalies have increased over the last 150 years is not in dispute, but it’s nice to see another irrelevant graphic displayed to impress your chums

Andy
Guest
Andy

The same website (Ed Hawkins) has some stuff about energy imbalance
http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2016/earths-energy-imbalance/

and how this is the thing to communicate, not surface temps.

As we know (Stevens et at) TOA energy imbalance is 0.6 +- 0.4 W/m2

Why don’t we communicate that, and did you notice that there are no numbers in Hawkin’s page?

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Simon

>”AGW does increase the temperature anomaly.”

1) Your own personnal assessment Simon?

2) Contrary to ex-IPCC vice-chairman. Climatologist and oceanographer Prof Dr Fredolin Tangan (“no concrete evidence”).

3) How EXACTLY does AGW increase an anomalous very short-term spike Simon, if as Tangan puts it there is “no concrete evidence” of this?

4) Schmidt, Rahmstorf, Sherwood, Foster, Mann et al, are claiming MOST of the El Nino spike for AGW – NOT just an “increase”. Problematic because “heat trapping GHGs” are NOT “trapping” the heat (i.e. the AGW conjecture is falsified). The anomaly will return to ENSO-neutral (as 1998 did) in accordace with the Kelvin-Planck statement of the Second Law of Thermodynamics and contrary to the above climate scientists (excspt Tangan).

The spike will be GONE by the end of the year Simon, dissipated to space, only to remain in textual or graphical i.e. non-real, form

5) >”As usual, there is no logical inconsistency between these statements except within your own mind”

Given 1 – 4, the logical inconsistency appears to be in your mind Simon.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Andy >”The same website (Ed Hawkins) has some stuff about energy imbalance [link] and how this is the thing to communicate, not surface temps.” Good find. Guest post by Matt Palmer and Doug McNeall (UK Met Office), no less. >”Why don’t we communicate that, and did you notice that there are no numbers in Hawkin’s page?” There seems to be considerable reticence by the IPCC and likes of UKMO to address the actual TOA data vs theoretical figures – why one wonders? I repeat my monotonous repetion; is that because: A) Sloppy incompetance, or B) Wilful negligence? Palmer and McNeall say: The size of the imbalance [EEI], or equivalently, the rate of energy accumulation in the Earth system, is the most fundamental metric determining the rate of climate change Except the actual data is trendless this century and 1/3 of the theoretical CO2 figure and less than a 1/4 of the net theoretical anthro figure i.e. the man-made climate change conjecture is busted. Palmer and McNeal again: …..the ocean becomes the dominant term in Earth’s energy budget on timescales longer than about 1 year Well yes (duh), the troposphere is only a bit… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”2) Contrary to ex-IPCC vice-chairman. Climatologist and oceanographer Prof Dr Fredolin Tangan (“no concrete evidence”).”

And contrary to Levine and McPhaden (2016).

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Meteorologist Predicts Atlantic Cooling Posted By: Site Admin May 10, 2016 Something significant is occurring in the Atlantic Ocean, according to meteorologist Paul Dorian of US weather forecast service Vencore Weather – Atlantic cooling. Evidence is growing to support predictions that the Atlantic Ocean is in a cooling phase and is set to cool further over coming decades with weather impacts for northern Europe and the north western US. Dorian is not the first scientist to reach this conclusion and he has put his thoughts into this article which was posted on the Vencore Weather website. by Paul Dorian, Meteorologist, Vencore, Inc. Overview In addition to solar cycles, temperature cycles in the planet’s oceans play critical roles in our ever changing climate and also on the extent of global sea ice. Oceanic temperature cycles are often quite long-lasting and a warm or cold phase can persist for two or three decades at a time. In general, the Atlantic Ocean experienced a cold phase from the early 1960’s to the mid 1990’s at which time it flipped to a warm phase and that has continued for the most part ever since. The current warm… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Simon

>”Here is a nice little animation to mull over.”

Ah yes, the global “average” illusion using HadCRUT4.

You are effectively just looking at the Northern Hemisphere only in the last circuit Simon. SH not so much (not even close):

HadCRUT4 NH vs SH
http://woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4nh/from:1950/plot/hadcrut4sh/from:1950

Something to mull over.

Andy
Guest
Andy

The spiral infographic is interesting as a data presentation exercise. If you were into marketing, this would be a good way to convey the message “spiraling out of control”

As an an objective scientific tool, not so much use

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Check out the April GISTEMP anomaly by latitude:

http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2016http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/

Perfect illustration of the “global average illusion”.

Also 2 NH hotspots on the map:

http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Screen-Shot-2016-05-16-at-11.49.29-777×437.png

Both from article (which raises difficult questions):

NASA Global Temperature Data: Warmest April
http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/2016/05/16/nasa-april-global-temperature-anomaly-1-1c/

The “global” anomaly (+1.11 C) is totally meaningless in this context (see 75S anomaly). Also, the spike is “sharply down” i.e. Schmidt’s starting to look like the dunce he will be by the end of the year.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

USA NOAA April 2016 – 24th Warmest (Max)

Posted May 16, 2016 by sunshinehours

According to the NOAA, April 2016 was ranked 24th warmest out of 122 in terms of Maximum.

Did you know 1946 was the 2nd warmest April?

[see graphs]

https://sunshinehours.net/2016/05/16/usa-noaa-april-2016-24th-warmest-max/

# # #

Gee, “24th warmest” evah!

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Bob Tisdale on Ed Hawkikins “spiral” graph (now in NZ Herald, of course):

I’ve highlighted the March 1878 anomaly in Figure 1.

Watching the animation on the first pass, I waited and waited and waited some more for those February, March and April 1878 values to be exceeded. And I was still waiting more than 100 years later on the animation. See Figure 2.

As shown in Figure 3, it wasn’t until 1990 that the March and April 1878 values were surpassed.

Did Ed Hawkins really want to draw everyone’s attention to that curiosity?

https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2016/05/12/does-ed-hawkinss-spirally-global-temperature-animation-defeat-its-purpose/

HadCRUT4. But GISTEMP only commences 1880……..

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Note the difference between a HadCRU anomaly map and GISS anomaly map:

HadCRUT4 March 2016
http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/anomalies.png

GISTEMP April 2016
http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Screen-Shot-2016-05-16-at-11.49.29-777×437.png

HadCRUT4 from article:

Met Office Global Temperature Data: March Warmest Month [by 0.002oC]
http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/2016/05/17/met-office-global-temperature-data/

Andy
Guest
Andy

Tamino

Now that global temperature has skyrocketed, talk about a “pause” of global warming only embarrasses the deniers who so craved it. Hence they’ve switched — again. Their general strategy is to search long enough and hard enough to find one thing that looks like it’s a sign against warming, which is easy even in a warming world; random fluctuation alone ensures there’s always at least one thing that’s bucking the trend. Temporarily, that is; because global warming is real, those fluctuation-induced signs don’t last. When the one deniers have been crowing about (like the so-called “pause”) turns out not to be, they switch to a different talking point.

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/05/17/models/

Would this be the so-called “pause” that Mann et al recently wrote a paper in Nature about?

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”Now that global temperature has skyrocketed…..”

Heh. But only in the Northern Hemisphere, in pockets, due to a naturally occurring fluctuation.

Grant Foster will be running for cover by the end of the year. Frantically cobbling up another linear “long-term” trend. Model Version 3.0.

Still, the guy is good for a laugh.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Tamino:

“We can also see this, with a bit more clarity, by plotting yearly rather than monthly averages”

Gee Grant, isn’t that what Carl Mears of RSS said, using the same word “clearly”, should be done but with 5 yr smoothing rather than 1 yr to eliminate the noise you’re frothing over?

And exactly what John Christy of UAH did?

But hell will freeze over before we se that in a Tamino post.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

‘NOAA Data Shows 2016 Set To Be Hottest Year’

Posted By: Site Admin May 19, 2016

Global average surface temperatures for the first four months of this year show that 2016 is shaping up to be the hottest year in the temperature records maintained by NOAA which date back to 1880.

[…]

Land and ocean temperature departure from average (with respect to the 1981-2010 base period. Data source: GHCN-M version 3.3.0 & ERSST version 4.0.0. Courtesy: NOAA.
http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Screen-Shot-2016-05-19-at-09.41.01-1024×576.png

[…]

Satellite data says it was warm but not that warm

However, while the data from both NOAA and NASA unequivocally suggest that April 2016 was the warmest April on record and, certainly, warmer than April 1998, other data suggests that this is not necessarily the case.

More>>>>>
http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/2016/05/19/hottest-year/

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>”Global average surface temperatures…..”

One look at the spacial distribution (see map linked above) reveals the “global average” to be totally meaningless.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Divergence of GISS from RSS from 2001

http://www.climatechangedispatch.com/images/pics9/divergence.jpg

Houston, we have a divergence problem……

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

‘Stuck on hot: Earth breaks 12th straight monthly heat record’ [April]

By SETH BORENSTEIN May. 18, 2016

“The Southern Hemisphere led the way, with Africa, South America and Asia all having their warmest Aprils on record”

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/665487d98b0e43eca76847c45b64ec71/stuck-hot-earth-breaks-12th-straight-monthly-heat-record

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I don’t think so. Southern South America was considerably cooler than normal and Southern Hemisphere Asia? Huh? What is in the SH was little more than ordinary:

http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Screen-Shot-2016-05-19-at-09.41.01-1024×576.png

The skew is still concentrated in Russia. All this will chnge with a La Nina.

Andy
Guest
Andy

Oregon schools ban books that question climate change:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/may/20/oregon-school-board-bans-books-that-question-clima/

Catastrophic climate change is 100% certain.

No room for any dissent in Portland.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

‘Record Warm 2016? What a Difference One Month Makes’

July 1st, 2016 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

With the rapid cooling now occurring in the global average tropospheric temperature, my previous prediction of a record warm year in the satellite data for 2016 looks…well…premature.

Here’s an update of what the average temperature trend would have to be in the next 6 months for 2016 to tie 1998 as record warmest year in the 38 year satellite record:

Graph http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH-v6-LT-with-2016-projection-1.jpg

Basically, as long as the anomalies stay below the June value of 0.34 deg. C, 2016 won’t be a record warm year.

If only I had kept my mouth shut nine days ago….

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/07/record-warm-2016-what-a-difference-one-month-makes/

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