Reminder: your stubborn sceptical mind will be dissected this week

UPDATE 1600, Monday 20 July: Lecture cancelled – see below
Manukau Institute of Technology

Manukau Institute of Technology, Otara. Look for the theatre. Click to enlarge.

Come along and hear all about it

This is a reminder to readers in and near Auckland about the free public lecture next Wednesday to address the problem of sceptical minds stubbornly clinging to questions about global warming. Since there can be, by our definition, no genuine scientific questions unanswered by our mainstream climate scientists, there must be something in the mind interfering with the acceptance of climate change.

Can sceptics help themselves or do we have to help them? Can they ever put their denial behind them? Victoria University has a highly-skilled psychologist who will dissect their anti-social behaviour.

The official brochure asks: “If it’s so obvious, why doesn’t everyone believe in climate change?” But the brochure misses the simple truth—that it’s not obvious because it’s not happening. The denial is actually in those presenting this examination of denial. What is obvious to the open mind is that it’s easier to cast doubt on the sceptic than to produce non-existent evidence of dangerous anthropogenic warming.

I mentioned this extraordinary public lecture in Are you a scientist? a few weeks ago. I’ll be there; I hope to see some of you.

When and where

When: 5.30–8pm, Wednesday 22 July
Where: Manukau Institute of Technology Theatre, Newbury St, Otara, Auckland

Remember

If you would like to attend, rsvp by tomorrow, Monday 20 July, to rsvp@vuw.ac.nz with ‘Manukau lecture’ in the subject line or phone 04-463 5791.


Two Victoria University of Wellington academics will this month give a public lecture on aspects of climate change at the Manukau Institute of Technology. Climate change: beliefs, biases and measures will see Dr Marc Wilson from the School of Psychology and Professor Lionel Carter FRSNZ of the Antarctic Research Centre discuss how people think about the issue of climate change and aspects of the science underpinning the world’s changing climate.

UPDATE 1625, Monday 20 July: Lecture cancelled

I’ve been advised by Victoria University that the lecture has been cancelled. I rang them for details. They were wanting 40 RSVPs to go ahead but apparently they received only 20. It’s disappointing that we won’t hear the details of this theory explaining climate denial nor get the chance to question them, though they might look at it again next year.

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AndyRichard C (NZ)Richard TreadgoldMan of ThessalySimon Recent comment authors
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Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Mike. >”Therefore any posited forcing of CO2 in between is invalid.” YES. You have it here. The posited “forcing” is there but it is ineffectual. When I say the forcing is “there” I mean in 2 ways, both of which are theoretical even though the second may lead one to think it is actually effective because it is observed: 1) The theoretical CO2 forcing can be estimated for any period using the IPCC’s simplified expression, dF = 5.35 ln (C/Co). Where Co is initial year CO2 level in ppm and C is final year CO2 level in ppm. This expression is at odds with other CO2 forcing expressions used for example in furnace design which are validated expressions. Here is the IPCC’s expression graphed against the Leckner expression for 278 K (typical of lower mid troposphere temperature): The Leckner curve reaches maximum forcing around 200ppm and that’s it – no more. The IPCC curve continues with increased forcing. Nevertheless, this is one method of determining the IPCC’s theoretical CO2 forcing in the atmosphere from historical CO2 levels and developing future scenarios, however erroneous those might be. 2) The theoretical CO2 forcing can also… Read more »

Man of Thessaly
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Man of Thessaly

[RT] Neither the Dutch nor the Italians, in engineering major works to prevent inundation, are responding to the IPCC’s insubstantial guesswork Where do you get your information, Richard? Try the Dutch Delta Commission report http://www.deltacommissie.com/doc/deltareport_full.pdf “When considering sea level rise scenarios, one of the inputs was the temperature increase calculated by the IPCC on the basis of the IPCC highest emission scenario, called A1FI” “[…] this scenario is realistic, as witnessed by the fact that actual emissions since 2000 are in line with, or even exceed the IPCC A1FI scenario” So it looks like they did refer to the IPCC, wouldn’t you say? Regarding the relative importance of subsidence and sea level rise, from the same report: “[Using the IPCC scenario] … we may expect a sea level rise of 0.55 to 1.2 m. Mean land subsidence along the Dutch coast, due to glacial isostasy and subsoil compaction, will be well over 10 cm in 2100. On balance this implies a relative ‘sea level rise’ for the Netherlands of 0.65 to 1.3 m in 2100.” Are you just making stuff up, Richard? Why? There are plenty of interesting things to discuss about the… Read more »

Man of Thessaly
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Man of Thessaly

[Andy] Christchurch is not planning for sea defences, unlike Holland.

Do you think they should? Seawalls and barrages are expensive – I’m not surprised they survive a cost-benefit analysis in the Netherlands and Venice, but suburban Chch? I suspect not. Should people outside the affected region be asked to pay for such a project? These are not rhetorical questions – I really think people should see such an analysis when the council makes planning decisions.

If insurance companies funded rebuilds, but now won’t insure the house, then I can well imagine your frustration. As I wrote yesterday, New Zealand really needs a coherent policy on this: ways of continuing insurance cover of assets facing predictably increasing risks; ways of ensuring that (the majority of) people will abide by decisions to ‘red zone’ if and when it proves necessary. It’s got to be possible, don’t you think?

Man of Thessaly
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Man of Thessaly

[Richard C] My statement “unperturbed” is in comparison to panic stricken Christchurch City Council. The Dutch actually seek out the risk of inundation (they are risk seekers) in order to live on land claimed from the sea. They plan, build, carry on unperturbed. But CCC are risk averse (in the extreme). I haven’t seen any ‘panic stricken’ behaviour. The council statements in The Press were pretty calm, I thought: http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/69901937/6000-christchurch-properties-at-risk-from-coastal-erosion eg “people should not be alarmed if their homes were within either an inundation or erosion zone. The report projected decades ahead and there was time for authorities to respond to the risk” In both the Netherlands and Christchurch the authorities are planning for the future using the best available information. I know you don’t agree with the IPCC conclusions, Richard, but they are authoritative, and governments would be taking an extreme risk not to heed them. Nobody can blame them if the world doesn’t warm and the sea doesn’t rise – they are acting responsibly with the information they’ve got. But if they ignore it, and the sea _does_ rise, then the liability would be terrible. A no-brainer, from their point of… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

T Man >”I know you don’t agree with the IPCC conclusions, Richard, but they are authoritative, and governments would be taking an extreme risk not to heed them. Nobody can blame them if the world doesn’t warm and the sea doesn’t rise – they are acting responsibly with the information they’ve got. But if they ignore it, and the sea _does_ rise, then the liability would be terrible. A no-brainer, from their point of view.” Authoritative? What a load of rubbish. You accept authority even when it is in error and can be proved to be? There’s all manner of nasty things that could be planned for because they “could” eventuate but this distorts policy. Everyone already knows sea levels are rising due to natural cause and the rates are known. The risk is known. The IPCC predictions of a man-made acceleration are demonstrably wrong already, there is no risk ignoring them. It should be happening by now if it is ever to happen but we’ve had 25 years and nada. The historical rate of rise is the default for planning and totally responsible. North Carolina has moved to this, they sacked the… Read more »

Andy
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Andy

Christchurch is not planning for sea defences, unlike Holland. Do you think they should? Seawalls and barrages are expensive Yes I agree they are expensive. I don’t necessarily agree that the council or govt should fund a sea wall at Southshore. However, the government decided to red-zone all the estuary facing properties and demolish them. Private property owners provided their own sea wall defences where needed (not large I might add – just enough to prevent erosion). There is now a buffer zone of empty land which is now vulnerable to storms and no one seems to take responsibility. But then this is a story of Christchurch all over and I don’t want to sound like another moaner especially as we are planning to move away permanently. I am more concerned, however, by the general ethos and philosophy shown in the MfE report I linked to earlier. http://www.mfe.govt.nz/sites/default/files/coastal-hazards-climate-change-guidance-manual.pdf Figure 1.2 describes the “new paradigms” which express how we are supposed to deal with coastal hazards, in particular that we need to “Living with coastal erosion as a natural cyclic process that helps shape the natural characteristics of the coastal margin” rather than treat… Read more »

Andy
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Andy

The IPCC cannot specify what the global average temperature will be in 2100, yet the amount of sea level rise (they say) depends upon it

If you read the MfE report linked to earlier, they are suggesting policy recommendations for the year 2100. They even have a graph projecting sea level out to the year 3000
(Figure 2.6, page 17)

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

>”Should we fine people for creating firebreaks around their properties to protect their families?”

Remembering the fellow in the path of the Black Saturday fire who had previously been fined $60,000 for clearing a firebreak around his house who said after surviving the fire unscathed that he had been vindicated.

>”Christchurch is, after all, a drained swamp”

Drainage is about the best example of living with consequences there is. Christchurch and Somerset Levels are prime examples (Holland is the extreme case). Our modern infrastructure creates a drainage problem simply by altering the runoff coefficients. Flood plains are built on so naturally there will be a flooding problem eventually. But we get some event that would otherwise be sensibly managed locally and it becomes an opportunity for “authorities”, including international (as per T Man), to exercise overbearing distortion of the situation because of some global scare campaign based on fantasy and a Green agenda.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Map of the coastal areas of Tauranga, Mount Maunaganui and Papamoa showing tsunami evacuation zones.

http://bopcivildefence.govt.nz/media/11308/tsunami_map_-_tauranga_mt_maunganui_papamoa_1_.pdf

Property in the red sells for millions. A tsunami could happen but people are falling over themselves to live in the red zone. Gareth Morgan has a “beach house” over the road from the beach right next to where the soundshell was but just to the south,

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Gareth Morgan’s expansive front window gives him direct line of sight to the Moturike Island tide guage:

https://www.niwa.co.nz/our-science/coasts/tools-and-resources/sea-levels/moturiki-island

Haven’t time to pull up the data right now but might try later. I don’t think the series is continuous but might be worth a look. It is not in the NZL section of PSMS:L that I can see but I see this in Google:

Obtaining Tide Gauge Data
http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/
Obtaining Tide Gauge Data. To obtain individual records, click on the appropriate …… -36.843. 174.769. 127. NZL, 09/06/2003, 690, 002. MOTURIKI ISLAND.

Must be there somewhere.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

>”Gareth Morgan’s expansive front window gives him direct line of sight to the Moturike Island tide guage” MOTURIKI ISLAND Station Information and Tide Gauge Data [2002 – 2005 only] http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/978.php Link to larger image of monthly data plot [2002 – 2005] http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/rlr.monthly.plots/978_high.png NIWA has data from this tide guage for 2015 so I don’t know why PSMSL only has this plotted or on record. Maybe now the data has to be purchased from NIWA. FOLLOWING PSMSL DOCUMENTATION ADDED 23-Nov-2010 : Data for Moturiki Island 2002 onwards has been made RLR. Primary benchmark is BC 81 4.462m above TGZ. RLR year is 2002 with RLR factor 5.438m. The full data series, 1960.8750 – 2006.4584, is here: Download metric sea level data. Use only with extreme caution. http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/met.monthly.data/978.metdata 1960.8750; 1713; 0;000 1960.9584; 1719; 0;000 1961.0416; 1756; 8;000 1961.1250; 1713; 0;000 1961.2084; 1737; 0;000 1961.2916; 1734; 2;000 1961.3750; 1817; 0;000 1961.4584; 1753; 9;000 1961.5416; 1753; 5;000 1961.6250; 1737; 0;000 1961.7084; 1765; 3;000 1961.7916; 1643; 2;000 [Break] 2002.0416; 1608; 0;000 2002.1250; 1638; 0;000 2002.2084; 1623; 0;000 2002.2916; 1582; 0;000 2002.3750; 1617; 0;000 2002.4584; 1598; 0;000 2002.5416; 1578; 0;000 2002.6250; 1548; 0;000 2002.7084; 1497; 0;000 2002.7916; 1551; 0;000… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Average of the last 10 datapoints in the 1960s section of Moturiki Island is: 1740.8
Average of the last 10 datapoints in the 2000s section of Moturiki Island is: 1590.0

1740.8 – 1590.0 = 150.8mm sea level fall over 4.5 decades.

-33.5mm/decade or -3.35mm/year

I don’t think Gareth Morgan needs to be alarmed that his sea view will disappear and multi-million property value slump in the immediate future though.

It’s the tsunami that will wipe him out.

Andy
Guest
Andy

Meanwhile, in this “hottest year ever”, the gritters are out in Scotland
http://www.scotsman.com/news/environment/scotland-s-weather-snow-forecast-as-gritters-seen-1-3843824

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”Meanwhile, in this “hottest year ever”, the gritters are out in Scotland” And, “Anomalous” July snowfall in Montana, Wyoming and Idaho http://iceagenow.info/2015/07/anomalous-july-snowfall-in-montana-wyoming-and-idaho/ Freak cold wave hits Papua – Thousands go hungry “The cold wave first struck at the beginning of July, hitting the district of Lanny Jaya particularly hard. The sub-districts of Kuyawage, West Wanu and Goa Baliem were struck by hailstorms accompanied by freezing temperatures which plunged to minus two degrees Celsius. “The average temperature in Lanny Jaya ranges between 17.8 degrees to 32 degrees and such an extreme cold wave hasn’t been witnessed since 1989. So far, nine people have died, half of whom were children. Thousands of people are threatened with food shortages, says the article, written by Ahmad Jusein of the IFRC.. The hailstorms caused severe damage to farmland and killed a large number of livestock. “Our community has suffered as the hailstorms destroyed yam crops and people have nothing to harvest. It also killed 168 pigs which are our main livestock,” said Lenius Muria Lanny, head of Kuyawage sub-district. http://iceagenow.info/2015/07/freak-cold-wave-hits-papua-thousands-go-hungry/ The Gore effect continues…down under Al does it again – visits Melbourne during coldest July in 19 years… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”Mt Maunganui is accreting from riverine sediment transport and rising. Illustrates the complexity of geographical processes”

The Moturiki Is. tide guage is mounted on a rock on the ocean side though (not harbour side). It is independent of any sedimentary processes.

Man of Thessaly
Guest
Man of Thessaly

[Andy] There is now a buffer zone of empty land which is now vulnerable to storms

I find this a fascinating statement. Do you think all of our empty natural coast is “vulnerable to storms”? Personally, I only see vulnerability where people have built in the zone that is affected by natural cycles of erosion and accretion; and, under the regime of climate change and rising sea level, where buildings are going to be so affected in the future. Seawalls are dubious protection even under static conditions, and worse as the sea encroaches.

Your musings about how development interacts with nature are interesting; I wouldn’t say there’s a blanket answer to whether nature is good and development bad, or vice versa; but in each case the people involved need to balance the risk and reward. Whether to place yourself in the path of the rising sea is, famously, one of the simplest of such cases.

Andy
Guest
Andy

Why is it a fascinating statement? The sea walls were placed by private property owners to protect their land. Now the land has been acquired by the government under compulsory purchase, there is no requirement to maintain those defenses, which makes the coast more vulnerable to erosion.

What exactly is “fascinating” about this statement?

Andy
Guest
Andy

Of course, we are completely fine to build a house close the Alpine Fault, (which we are) which has a greater than 30% chance of rupturing in our lifetime, causing widespread fatalities and mayhem, which the government take no interest in.

However, the government and councils seem very keen to make our coastal properties worthless and uninsurable due to the potential and unproven science of rapidly rising sea levels, which apparently the MfE can model out to the year 3000

Andy
Guest
Andy

I just came back from a local community meeting where about 80 people were discussing the new Christchurch plan and how it would affect them, for example by not being allowed to rebuild on land that they own.

There was also talk of sea walls and a tidal barrage.

Fascinating

Andy
Guest
Andy

Speaking of tidal barriers, the cost is a mere $430 million to solve the non problem (currently) of tidal surges,

http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/70707779/tidal-barrier-could-reduce-flooding-risk-in-christchurch

Another nice little consultancy earner for someone, dreaming up hair brained schemes.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”not being allowed to rebuild on land that they own”

Are you allowed houseboats on dry land?

Andy
Guest
Andy

The council note that current sea level rise is around 1.7mm a year, but it is expected to rise sharply in 2065

I am not making this up.

Andy
Guest
Andy

I will try to scan some of the council leaflet and post it here for interest

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Here ya go Andy:

1999 Brown Brothers Power Cat, NZ$ 429,000

CODE: 9462
LENGTH: 17.4 metres
TYPE: Power

The ultimate live-aboard/house boat, very well maintained by her retiring owner. Launched approximately 1999, steel/timber glassed construction, powered by twin Isuzu 140hp diesels, shaft drive, cruise at 12lph at 6.5 knots. Carries 1000L fuel and 1000L water. A very nice interior layout with 6’3″ headroom, 4 double berths in private cabins, large galley with fridge and 2 freezers, cosy lounge area with diesel heater. Large top deck and entertainment area. Equipped with 6.5kva genset, BBQ, dinghy and 50hp outboard, HIAB deck crane. Equipped with a good range of electronics. Has been in SSM survey. Major refit 2013. Inspection will not disappoint. Currently lying in Picton. Will look at trade/swap on small house on Great Barrier Island.

http://www.gulfgroup.co.nz/displayboat.php?list_code=9462

Andy
Guest
Andy

Looks great. Actually, here is a true story. Before I was born, my parents lived on the River Thames in London on a boat.

The boat was called “The Gay Adventurer”

How times have changed.

Andy
Guest
Andy

I scanned the key page on sea levels from the “Coastal Hazards” booklet from Christchurch City Council
comment image

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

CCC have moved the baseline on 10 years to 2000 from the IPCC’s 1990. Even so, sea levels SHOULD have risen 50mm since 2000 on that projection i.e. 3.33mm/yr in linear terms. But they say Christchurch and Banks Peninsula are only rising at 1.9 +/- 0.06mm/yr.

Their man-made boost of 1.75mm/yr is not occurring – they are wrong already in 2015. If they are wrong in 2015 they are wrong for 2065. Why they think they might be able to guess rise to 2115 is anyone’s guess.

3.33mm/yr is 200mm over the 60 years 1990 – 2050 in IPCC terms. Dr Jan Wright implied “20 to 40cms” from 2015 – 2050 i.e. about 300mm over 35 years or 8.57mm/yr. Wrong of course, it should be 300mm over 60 years 1990 – 2050 or 5mm/yr.

1.90mm/yr Reality
3.33mm/yr CCC (IPCC’s low end)
5.00mm/yr IPCC’s mid-range
8.57mm/yr Dr Jan Wright, MfE Commissioner for the Environment ($300,000 pa)

Why not just accept reality?

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Should be – “Their man-made boost of [1.43mm/yr] is not occurring”

Andy
Guest
Andy

RT
This link is fairly close to the relevant parts of the print booklet, which I can scan all of if needed

http://www.ccc.govt.nz/environment/land/coast/coastal-hazards/coastal-erosion-and-inundation/

Not that the graph of projected SLR is the upper bound of scenarios presented in the Tonkin and Taylor report
http://www.ccc.govt.nz/assets/Documents/Environment/Land/Tonkin-Taylor-Coastal-Hazard-Assessment-Report-2015.pdf

Page 7

Andy
Guest
Andy

I note that the Tonkin and Taylor report I link to above is actually V2 which is mentioned in the report

A peer review of the assessment methodology and reporting was
undertaken by Hume Consultancy Ltd. All the suggested amendments documented in the peer
review were included in this report (Version 2).

There is some new jargon in there that will take some digesting

Following consultation with Council, the P66% CEHZ
value at 2065 and the P5% CEHZ value at 2115 are adopted as prudent likely and potential CEHZ
values (termed CEHZ2065 and CEHZ2115 respectively).

I thought we had reached “peak jargon” but I was mistaken

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