28 Thoughts on “Welcome the warmth

  1. Most of my friends in Aberdeen (employees of “Big Oil”) are rubbing their hands in glee at all the skiing literally on their doorstep.

    Good single malt and a Cairngorm blizzard, can’t beat it!

  2. val majkus on December 27, 2010 at 1:58 pm said:

    Hi Viv
    I hope you’re not flooded out – and yes a little bit of summer warmth would be nice right now
    and have you seen the hilariouos post on WUWT http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/25/do-we-care-if-2010-is-the-warmist-year-in-history/#more-30231
    (just a couple of paras)
    5) Time for another ski lift! January 2007 analysis boosts 1998 by nearly a third of a degree (+0.312ºC) and drops 1934 a tiny bit (-0.008ºC), putting 1998 in the lead by a bit (0.015ºC). Sato comments “This is only time we had 1998 warmer than 1934, but one [on?] web for 7 months.”

    6) and 7) March and August 2007 analysis shows tiny adjustments. However, in what seems to be a photo finish, 1934 sneaks ahead of 1998, being warmer by a tiny amount (0.023ºC). So, hooray! 1934 wins and 1998 is second.

    OOPS, the hot race continued after the FOIA email! I checked the tabular data at GISS Contiguous 48 U.S. Surface Air Temperature Anomaly (C) today and, guess what? Since the Sato FOIA email discussed above, GISS has continued their taxpayer-funded work on both 1998 and 1934. The Annual Mean for 1998 has increased to 1.32ºC, a gain of a bit over an 11th of a degree (+0.094ºC), while poor old 1934 has been beaten down to 1.2ºC., a loss of about a 20th of a degree (-0.049ºC). So, sad to say, 1934 has lost the hot race by about an eighth of a degree (0.12ºC). Tough loss for the old-timer.

    There’s a great graph too with ski lifts for 1998 and slides for 1934

    And I think in Aust the BOM is gearing up for ‘it’s hottest decade everrrr!’ hit song

  3. val majkus on December 27, 2010 at 2:02 pm said:

    Further on gearing up for the release of the BOM’s hit song
    There is a new comment on the post “Could the Australian BOM get it more wrong?”.
    http://joannenova.com.au/2010/12/could-the-australian-bom-get-it-more-wrong/

    Author: Chris Gillham
    Comment:
    The Bom doesn’t have to worry about getting its forecasts wrong when it can rely on the media to gets its records wrong.

    As described by The West Australian newspaper on December 1, 2010, re the climate of spring 2010:

    “… the State sweltered its way through the hottest spring on record.”

    See http://www.waclimate.net/imgs/west-australian-newspaper-1-12-2010.gif

    The BoM has just published its Monthly Weather Review Western Australia November 2010 …
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mwr/wa/mwr-wa-201011.pdf

    … which combines with the October 2010 review …
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mwr/wa/mwr-wa-201010.pdf

    … and the September 2010 review …
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mwr/wa/mwr-wa-201009.pdf

    … to give us the official mean temperature across the western half of the country for spring 2010.

    Sep 2010 – 19C – 0.7C below average
    Oct 2010 – 23.1C – equal average
    Nov 2010 – 26.6C – 0.7C above average

    In other words the mean temperature across WA for spring 2010 was 22.9 C – exactly the same as the BoM’s baseline mean from 1961-1990.

    For example, the spring mean in 2009 was 23.6C and in 2008 it was 23.38.

    Spring 2010 averaged across WA was utterly normal but for many readers of WA’s monopoly daily press, it was “the hottest spring on record”. Record temps were indeed recorded in the state’s lower south west but the remaining two million square kilometres of WA were below or well below average, and public perceptions about climate change shouldn’t be distorted by such sloppy journalism.

  4. Clarence on December 27, 2010 at 2:03 pm said:

    Reminds me of the 1977 winter, when 7 frozen motorists were brought in from the highway over the Cairngorms. Then, at the bottom of the deepest snowdrift, patrolmen found a lingerie salesman still alive – he had wrapped himself in yards of his products before slipping into a coma. He survived – and I shook his hand at the Inverness Rescue Centre.

    At that time, everybody believed a new Ice Age was in the offing. But, thanks to academia and the right incentives, we now know that ice is caused by warmth.

  5. Brilliant story Clarence. You needed to put in a “denier” pun though 🙂

  6. val majkus on December 28, 2010 at 9:10 am said:

    Following on from Clarence’s story I think we should have a column to ring in the New Year of our favourite climatechange memories, I think mine for the year (all right I know we don’t yet know if it’s the warmest year everrr) are someone in England asking during the deep freeze winter currently happening there ‘when is this warming cooling going to stop’ and the photo of the Moonbat digging in ice looking for the missing hot spot –
    anyway how about it RichardT

  7. My mate stuck at Newark Airport in the blizzard (14 hours on the floor and counting) probably has some climate change memories..

  8. Richard C (NZ) on December 28, 2010 at 11:25 am said:

    James Renwick’s (NIWA) summer forecast for “drier air”.

    Immediately followed by 97% humidity in Auckland.

  9. Richard C (NZ) on December 28, 2010 at 11:31 am said:

    Also the endless opportunities for mirth e.g.

    “Monbiot Minimum”

    “Gore Effect”

    “Trenberth’s Travesty”

    “Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past”

  10. Richard C (NZ) on December 28, 2010 at 11:33 am said:

    “Barbecue Summer”

    “Mild Winter”

  11. Richard C (NZ) on December 28, 2010 at 11:42 am said:

    winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.

    “Bundle Up, It’s Global Warming’

    “Global warming to cause longer, colder winters”

  12. Richard C (NZ) on December 28, 2010 at 12:08 pm said:

    “You know perfectly well I make no claim to be a scientist and I won’t be making the comment you invite. But the Real Climate Wiki indicates that there’s nothing in what you provide to alter my lay understanding of the science.”

    Bryan Walker

  13. Richard C (NZ) on December 28, 2010 at 12:12 pm said:

    “bullshit”

    Professor Keith Hunter

  14. Richard C (NZ) on December 28, 2010 at 12:21 pm said:

    “That snow outside is what global warming looks like”

    George Monbiot

  15. Richard C (NZ) on December 28, 2010 at 1:03 pm said:

    “voodoo science”

    Dr R. K. Pachauri

  16. The carnage continues — 6000 flights now cancelled — 24.2″ snow at Newark Airport — American Airlines already cancelled all flights until Wednesday — Starbucks low on skim milk … will it ever end?

    Comment from a friend stuck at Newark, right now.

  17. val majkus on December 28, 2010 at 1:25 pm said:

    picked up from a commentator at
    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100069761/christmas-myths-the-mystery-of-the-vanishing-snow/#dsq-content
    LINKS TO TRENDS – Showing Cooling

    1998 to 2010 RSS

    Source: http://www.populartechnology.n

    Graph: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_BsNA
    1996 to 2010 GISS

    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gist

    2010 Trend from four sources: RSS, UAH, HadCRUT and GISS

    Source:

    http://stevengoddard.wordpress…/

    Graph: http://stevengoddard.files.wor

    HadCRUT dataset shows the decline (unadjusted data):

    http://www.woodfortrees.org/pl

    Adjusted Data HadCRUT

    http://www.woodfortrees.org/pl

    in case they’re useful

  18. Richard C (NZ) on December 28, 2010 at 2:40 pm said:

    These links are truncated so “not found’

    I’ll have a look at the source comment

  19. Richard C (NZ) on December 28, 2010 at 2:42 pm said:

    “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”

    Dr David Viner

  20. val majkus on December 28, 2010 at 4:14 pm said:

    sorry Richard should have checked; the comment is on page 3 of the comment pages and the link (at least the top one which I tried) seem to work from there
    so if they’re useful some one would have to go through them one by one
    I don’t have time this afternoon sorry

  21. val majkus on December 29, 2010 at 3:09 pm said:

    CAN someone bring me up to date on temperatures
    is 2010 the hottest year since 1880?
    http://www.treehugger.com/files/2010/06/2010-has-been-hottest-year-on-record-noaa.php
    there’s a conv at Catallaxy Files and I don’t have time to do my research

  22. Richard C (NZ) on December 29, 2010 at 4:10 pm said:

    Don’t know myself, Val – been working on de-trending the NZTR 7SS.

  23. val majkus on December 29, 2010 at 4:21 pm said:

    Fortuitously an important article and one to add to the list
    Dr. Don J. Easterbrook has a guest post today on http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/28/2010%e2%80%94where-does-it-fit-in-the-warmest-year-list/#more-30425
    his point is to answer the question of ‘which is the hottest year on record’, we need to look at a much longer time frame‒centuries and millennia.
    So where do the 1934/1998/2010 warm years rank in the long-term list of warm years? Of the past 10,500 years, 9,100 were warmer than 1934/1998/2010. Thus, regardless of which year ( 1934, 1998, or 2010) turns out to be the warmest of the past century, that year will rank number 9,099 in the long-term list.
    The climate has been warming slowly since the Little Ice Age (Fig. 5), but it has quite a ways to go yet before reaching the temperature levels that persisted for nearly all of the past 10,500 years.

    We’ll have to gear up for ‘the warmest year everrrr’ – the CSIRO has started already
    http://catallaxyfiles.com/2010/12/29/barry-hunt-csiro-on-global-warming/

  24. val majkus on December 29, 2010 at 4:30 pm said:

    maybe another keeper
    http://notrickszone.com/2010/12/27/german-climate-professor-slams-climate-religion/
    Professor Kirstein also cautioned against placing too much emphasis on the decade of 2001 -2010 being the hottest decade on record, believing the claim is “a joke” and saying that determining a global average is a tricky business and in the end is only a theoretical value
    (the transcript is in German and so is the video)

  25. Richard C (NZ) on December 29, 2010 at 9:52 pm said:

    The Easterbrook article is a thorough CO2 debunking.

    Keep an eye on the “December 20, 2010” thread about here:-

    https://www.climateconversation.org.nz/news/december-20-2010/#comment-34144

    I’m attempting to account for the general warming of 0,45 C over the last century referencing appropriate papers.

    O.15 C so far from TSI and I’ve found another paper that accounts for more by magnetism.

    Also keep an eye on the bottom of the “NZ ETS: Analytic Negligence” thread below here:-

    https://www.climateconversation.org.nz/2010/12/nz-ets-analytic-negligence/#comment-33974

    We’re starting to compile some info for a NZ ETS governmental review. This will be snippets from now on because Richard Treadgold will be making a series of posts for this purpose.

  26. Richard C (NZ) on December 31, 2010 at 11:58 am said:

    Let’s put it all in perspective

    Earth’s Climatic History

    Climatologists have used various techniques and evidence to reconstruct a history of the Earth’s past climate. From this data, they have found that during most of the Earth’s history global temperatures were probably 8 to 15 degrees Celsius warmer than today. In the last billion years of climatic history, warmer conditions were broken by glacial periods starting at 925, 800, 680, 450, 330, and 2 million years before present.

    The period from 2,000,000 – 14,000 B.P. (before present) is known as the Pleistocene or Ice Age. During this period, large glacial ice sheets covered much of North America, Europe, and Asia for extended periods of time. The extent of the glacier ice during the Pleistocene was not static. The Pleistocene had periods when the glacier retreated (interglacial) because of warmer temperatures and advanced because of colder temperatures (glacial). During the coldest periods of the Ice Age, average global temperatures were probably 4 – 5 degrees Celsius colder than they are today.

    Continues………………………….

    http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/7x.html

  27. Richard C (NZ) on December 31, 2010 at 12:27 pm said:

    Taking the mid point of 8 and 15 as 11.5 and adding to the current global average temperature (14.4), we get a “normal” earth temperature of 26 C over the last billion years.

    That casts a rather different light on global and local temperature anomalies if 26 C is “normal”.

  28. Richard C (NZ) on December 31, 2010 at 12:48 pm said:

    Average NZ anomaly for last decade using 26 C as “normal”:-

    -13.35 C

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Post Navigation