1. What is Integrated Assessment (IA)?
2. What are Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs)?
3. How do IAMs and GCMs differ?
[…]
How do IAMs and GCMs differ?
Integrated assessment models generally include both physical and social science models that consider demographic, political, and economic variables that affect greenhouse gas emission scenarios in addition to the physical climate system. General Circulation Models (GCMs), however, focus on the physical climate system alone. Many IAMs do include some form of climate modeling scheme in their routines, such as zero-dimensional or 2-dimensional energy balance models, but due to computing time limitations it is currently infeasible to integrate a full 3-dimensional GCM with a human dimensions model to create an IAM. Until computers become fast enough to significantly reduce computation times, IAMs will not be able to configure a full GCM into their model structure, and must rely on simpler forms of climate models to forecast changes in climate based on future scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and other significant variables. For more information, see the Guide to General Circulation Models.
[Heads-up for AR5]
Guest
Richard C (NZ)
Example of integrated assessment model (IAM) output:-
‘The Social Cost of CO2 from the PAGE09 Model’
Chris Hope, 2011
Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge
Excuse me, RC, but I think you’re talking to yourself… why don’t you fix yourself a nice hot milk and go to bed – your imaginary audience will still be here in the morning.
Guest
Richard C (NZ)
EU suspends aircraft emissions trading rules
The European Union has agreed to suspend its rules that require airlines flying to and from airports in the EU to pay for their carbon emissions.
The rules had been unpopular with countries outside Europe such as the US, China and India.
Climate commissioner Connie Hedegaard said she had proposed “stopping the clock for one year”.
She said the suspension was due to progress being made in negotiations on a global emissions deal.
But she added that if the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) did not make progress towards a global deal by this time next year the European tax would be reintroduced.
(Reuters) – President Barack Obama signed a bill on Tuesday shielding U.S. airlines from paying for each ton of carbon their planes emit flying into and out of Europe, despite a recent move by Europe to suspend its proposed measure for one year.
The MIT Technology Review has a very interesting article about ethics and climate change and the knotty problem of discounting future costs:
[quote re “Broome”] “But his larger point is, more simply, that even such quantitative economic evaluations need to fully incorporate moral principles.”
You can see where this is leading. Market discount rates – the ones that people choose of their own volition – are wrong. The answer is not that the public should be persuaded to adopt a different approach to discounting the future but that a different discount rate must be imposed by unelected “experts”.
I’m so glad there are unelected “experts” ready to override my free choice and dictate my “moral principles”.
Guest
Richard C (NZ)
‘The Social Cost of Carbon’ [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)] Estimating the Benefits of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions EPA and other federal agencies use the social cost of carbon (SCC) to estimate the climate benefits of rulemakings. The SCC is an estimate of the economic damages associated with a small increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, conventionally one metric ton, in a given year. This dollar figure also represents the value of damages avoided for a small emission reduction (i.e. the benefit of a CO2 reduction). The SCC is meant to be a comprehensive estimate of climate change damages and includes changes in net agricultural productivity, human health, and property damages from increased flood risk. However, it does not include all important damages and, as noted by the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report [link], it is “very likely that [SCC] underestimates” the damages. The models used to develop SCC estimates, known as integrated assessment models, do not assign value to all of the important physical, ecological, and economic impacts of climate change recognized in the climate change literature because of a lack of precise information on the nature of damages and because the science… Read more »
Guest
Richard C (NZ)
Technical Support Document: Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis Under Executive Order 12866 Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon, United States Government With participation by �Council of Economic Advisers �Council on Environmental Quality �Department of Agriculture �Department of Commerce �Department of Energy �Department of Transportation �Environmental Protection Agency �National Economic Council �Office of Energy and Climate Change �Office of Management and Budget �Office of Science and Technology Policy �Department of the Treasury February 2010 I. Monetizing Carbon Dioxide Emissions II. Social Cost of Carbon Values Used in Past Regulatory Analyses III. Approach and Key Assumptions A. Integrated Assessment Models The DICE Model The PAGE Model The FUND Model B. Global versus Domestic Measures of SCC Damage Functions Global SCC Domestic SCC C. Valuing Non-CO2 Emissions D. Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Table 1: Summary Statistics for Four Calibrated Climate Sensitivity Distributions Figure 2: Estimates of the Probability Density Function for Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (°C) E. Socio-Economic and Emissions Trajectories F. Discount Rate The Discount Rates Selected for Estimating SCC IV. Revised SCC Estimates Table 3: Disaggregated Social Cost of CO2 Values by Model, Socio-Economic Trajectory, and Discount Rate for 2010 (in… Read more »
Guest
Richard C (NZ)
‘AN EVIDENCE-BASED APPROACH TO PRICING CO2 EMISSIONS’ Ross McKitrick I propose ……… that the best way to proceed would be to put a small tax on CO2 emissions, and tie its subsequent evolution to a suitable measure of atmospheric temperatures. If temperatures go up, so does the tax. If they do not, the tax does not change. In this way everybody will expect to get the policy they think best, and whoever turns out to be right deserves to be so. Sceptics who do not believe in global warming will not expect the tax to go up, and might even expect it to go down. Those convinced we are in for rapid warming will expect the tax to rise quickly in the years ahead. Companies managing factories and power plants will have to figure out who is more likely to be right, because billions of dollars of potential tax liabilities will depend on what is going to happen. Nobody will benefit from using false or exaggerated science: instead the market will identify those who can prove they understand the climate well enough to make accurate forecasts. And policy-makers will be guaranteed that, whatever… Read more »
Interesting that earthquake is number 48. I suspect this list will be somewhat different for NZ.
I have recently heard a few tales of retailers shutting up shop because they cannot afford the new insurance premiums and earthquake building codes.
Guest
Richard C (NZ)
Obama’s Climate Action Plan: How it miscalculates the social cost of carbon. – Slate Magazine ‘Wrong Number’ Obama’s new climate plan is based on a dubious calculation and falls woefully short. By Eric Posner […] Where does the SCC come from? In 2010, the White House convened a group of officials from across the government to calculate this number. The group used three computer models that estimate the economic impacts of climate change, the most famous of which was created by Yale economist William Nordhaus. In May, the group updated its analysis, yielding the $38 figure above. (There are other figures based on other assumptions, but $38 will most likely be the one the EPA and other agencies use.) Nordhaus’ model starts with the historic growth rate of the global economy and then estimates the amount that climate-related damage will reduce it. The problem, which Nordhaus candidly acknowledges, is that no one has any idea what the economic impact of climate change will be (other than that it will be very bad). So he waves his hands and makes a guess based on his reading of various climate studies. The key claim is… Read more »
Guest
Richard C (NZ)
[Posner] – “The bottom line is this: The current SCC calculation embodies the worst of both worlds: too low from the standpoint of global well-being, too high from the standpoint of law. When power companies challenge the new climate regulations in court—we won’t have to wait long—they will argue that the rules fail a cost-benefit analysis. Courts don’t always demand cost-benefit analyses, but they sometimes do, and even if they don’t here, the arbitrary assumptions underlying the government’s number will bother them, as they should.”
Guest
Richard C (NZ)
I looked for NZ but we just get lumped into Asia-Pacific. There’s Chart 7 on page 23: ‘Natural hazards – priority and preparedness by region’ And APPENDIX 2 Chart 8, page 34: ‘Top 50 priority risk scores in 2013 – Asia-Pacific’ The earthquake ranking is up 3 from the global average to 45 in Asia-Pacific and the “preparedness” is much better than South Africa for example (natch). The climate change ranking is different for each region too e.g. varying 43 Europe to 30 Latin America (32 Asia-Pacific). The free mag ‘Tauranga & Rotorua Property investor’ May edition devoted 3 articles over 5 pages to seismic strengthening, The third one is: ‘Seismic strengthening – a disaster in its own right’ – “As more becomes known about the cost of seismic strengthening, some owners face losing all their equity” The risk for these people from retroactive earthquake mitigation is substantial and already realized, The risk from an actual earthquake is still in the future. A fellow I knew from my school days has a block in downtown Tauranga and was featured in the BOP Times saying he was just going to demolish and rebuild. That… Read more »
Guest
Richard C (NZ)
Surprising testimony of Robert Murphy at the U.S. Senate Hearing “Climate Change: It’s Happening Now”:
“The American public and policymakers alike have been led to believe that the social cost of carbon is an objective scientific concept akin to the mass of the moon or the radius of the sun. However, although there are inputs from the physical sciences into the calculation, estimates of the social cost of carbon are heavily dependent on modeling assumptions. In particular, if the White House Working Group had followed OMB guidance on either the choice of discount rate or reporting from a domestic perspective, then the official estimates of the current SCC would probably be close to zero, or possibly even negative—a situation meaning that (within this context) the federal government should be subsidizing coal-fired power plants because their activities confer external benefits on humanity.”
‘A Closer Look at the Government’s Determination of the Social Costs of Carbon’
By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger
“…..the government’s determination and use of the social cost of carbon is simply a bad idea. The extreme sensitivity to its input parameters means that the final answer is easily molded to be whatever the user desires it to be. And since the current government user desires a limit on carbon dioxide emissions, the SCC is positive and has gotten larger just in time for the new round of proposed regulations and executive actions—ignoring new climate science in the process.”
“The SCC is about 5 times greater using a 2.5 percent rate than a 5 percent rate. Murphy argues that by federal guidelines (OMB Circular A-4), the Interagency Working Group should also have considered the SCC under a 7 percent discount rate. And had they done so, they very likely would have found the SCC to be negative (i.e., that carbon emissions conferred a net benefit to society). But that would have been an inconvenient result, so the Interagency Working Group ignored that federal guideline.”
“They also dismissed the directive to report the costs and benefits from a domestic perspective, where costs are only considered to be a fraction of the total global costs (according to the Interagency Working Group, between 7 percent and 23 percent). Considering a 7 percent discount rate and the new science indicating a lower climate sensitivity and almost assuredly, the domestic costs would approach zero (if not, in fact, be negative).”
“We think the blunders the Obama administration has committed in setting their “price” of carbon dioxide and methane (as opposed to the silly “carbon”) may be actionable, action we’d be happy to contribute to.”
Guest
Richard C (NZ)
‘Lawmakers vote to thwart EPA move on ‘social cost of carbon’ ‘
By Ben Geman and Pete Kasperowicz
The House voted Thursday to block the Environmental Protection Agency from weighing the benefits of curbing carbon emissions when crafting major energy-related regulations.
Lawmakers voted 234-178 for Rep. Tim Murphy’s (R-Pa.) amendment to prevent EPA from factoring the “social cost of carbon” into rules unless a federal law is enacted that allows its consideration.
Fifteen Democrats voted with almost all Republicans for the amendment, while three Republicans opposed it.
The amendment was tacked onto GOP legislation that allows the Energy Department to veto EPA rules with $1 billion or more in costs if the department determines they would harm the economy.
[…]
The underlying bill is slated to clear the House Thursday afternoon but faces dim prospects in the Democrat-led Senate.
‘IER’s Robert Murphy on the Social Cost of Carbon’ by Marlo Lewis […] Murphy challenges the intellectual bona fides of the Obama administration’s May 2013 Technical Support Document (TSD) on the social cost of carbon (SCC). Climate activists increasingly invoke SCC estimates to justify the imposition of carbon taxes, fuel economy mandates, Soviet-style production quota for wind farms, fracking bans, and other interventions to rig the marketplace against reliable, affordable, fossil energy. They speak as if SCC estimates disclose an objective reality like the boiling point of water or the specific gravity of iron. In fact, SCC estimates are assumption-driven hocus-pocus or, as my colleague Myron Ebell prefers to say, “hogwash.” […] The only point I would add to Murphy’s trenchant analysis is that even if (a) the climatological, meteorological, and technological forecasts underpinning SCC estimates were accurate, (b) agencies use appropriate discount rates, and (c) agencies use U.S. domestic SCC estimates in cost-benefit analysis, SCC analyses would still be one-sided and misleading. Even if scrupulously based on the best science and economics, SCC analyses would still ignore the social benefits — the positive externalities — of affordable, reliable, carbon-based energy. Consequently, such… Read more »
Guest
Richard C (NZ)
‘Scathing MIT Paper Blasts Obama’s Climate Models’ Author:Robert Murphy […] Current Crop of Computer Models “Close to Useless” It is this second class of models, the economic/climate hybrids called Integrated Assessment Models, that Pindyck discusses. Pindyck’s paper is titled, “Climate Change Policy: What Do the Models Tell Us?” Here is his shocking answer, contained in the abstract: Very little. A plethora of integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been constructed and used to estimate the social cost of carbon (SCC) and evaluate alternative abatement policies. These models have crucial flaws that make them close to useless as tools for policy analysis: certain inputs (e.g. the discount rate) are arbitrary, but have huge effects on the SCC estimates the models produce; the models’ descriptions of the impact of climate change are completely ad hoc, with no theoretical or empirical foundation; and the models can tell us nothing about the most important driver of the SCC, the possibility of a catastrophic climate outcome. IAM-based analyses of climate policy create a perception of knowledge and precision, but that perception is illusory and misleading. [Bold added.] For those unfamiliar with academic prose, such inflammatory language is almost unheard-of,… Read more »
Guest
Richard C (NZ)
Robert Murphy’s follow-up IER post:
‘MIT Economist on Bogus Climate Damage Functions’
In my previous post, I summarized Robert S. Pindyck’s scathing paper on the computer models used by the Obama Administration for its estimates of the “social cost of carbon.” Pindyck’s critique is all the more compelling because he is a professor of economics and finance at MIT, with several decades’ experience publishing articles and books dealing with energy, and he is actually a proponent of a carbon tax. In the present article, I will explore a particular aspect of Pindyck’s critique that I skipped in the original post. Believe it or not, Pindyck explains that the allegedly state-of-the-art computer models that are now determining federal policy have damage functions that are literally made up. As I have been telling my economist colleagues for years, if they actually understood how these computer models were designed, they would have far less confidence in the “optimal carbon tax” numbers shooting out of the other end.
‘World Is Spending $1 Billion Per Day To Tackle Global Warming’
* EurActiv
The world invested almost a billion dollars a day in limiting global warming last year, but the total figure – $359 billion – was slightly down on last year, and barely half the $700 billion per year that the World Economic Forum has said is needed to tackle climate change.
These are the findings spelled out in the latest Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) report. For the first time, it estimated global North-South cash flows at between $39 and $62 billion.
But the total funding pot fell $5 billion from 2012, and remains just a tiny fraction of the $5 trillion that the International Energy Agency estimates is required by 2020 for clean energy projects alone, if rising temperatures are to be pegged at 2 degrees Celsius.
‘Economist Says Best Climate Fix A Tough Sell, But Worth It’ by Richard Harris | February 11, 2014 We often talk about climate change as a matter of science. But the biggest questions are really about money. How much would it cost to fix the problem — and what price will we pay if we don’t? The man who invented the field of climate economics 40 years ago says there’s actually a straightforward way to solve the problem. William Nordhaus has written a book [‘Climate Casino’] that lays it out in simple terms. […] “Actually from an economic point of view, it’s a pretty simple problem,” he says. If people would simply pay the cost of using the atmosphere as a dump for carbon dioxide, that would create a powerful incentive to dump less and invest in cleaner ways to generate energy. But how do you do that? “We need to put a price on carbon, so that when anyone, anywhere, anytime does something that puts carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, there’s a price tag on that,” he says. His colleagues say that inspiration — now taken for granted — makes Nordhaus a… Read more »
Guest
Richard C (NZ)
‘The crazy world of Renewable Energy Targets’
JoNova, August 18th, 2014
[…] The RET scheme in Australian pays a subsidy to wind farms and solar installations. Below, Tom Quirk shows that this is effectively a carbon tax (but a lousy one), and it shifts supply — perversely taxing brown coal at $27/ton, black coal at $40/ton and gas at up to $100/ton. Because it’s applied to renewables rather than CO2 directly, it’s effectively a higher tax rate for the non-renewable but lower CO2 emitters. […]
The next 15 years will see major structural transformations in the global economy,” the report says. “As population growth and urbanisation continue, global output is likely to increase by half or more. Rapid technological advances will continue to reshape production and consumption patterns.”
But countries will miss these opportunities if they fail over the next few years to introduce policies and strategies to start shifting their economies to low carbon.
This needs to happen very widely across the world because we have only 15 years or so to make big progress towards reducing greenhouse gases. If we don’t, we will suffer from devastating climate changes in the years beyond, the report warns.
Guest
Richard C (NZ)
My reply to Mike went to moderation. Not sure how I became Richard+C+(NZ), I didn’t type that in. [That’s mysterious. Your original comment is still sitting there and it seems normal, except for the spurious characters. I’ve been carrying out some maintenance, so perhaps that affected something. Sorry about that. – RT]
Guest
Richard C (NZ)
Difficulties posting (comment in Mods or disappeared and Name changed) so here’s my reply to Mike again: From the Oram article: “The report [Stern’s] says that beginning the shift to a low carbon global economy is the best way to overcome two chronic issues: developed countries are suffering from economic stagnation following the Global Financial Crisis; and developing countries are suffering from rapid deterioration of their air, land and water. For example air pollution is causing seven million premature deaths a year around the world. ” Except neither situation is climate change and carbon dioxide emissions aren’t causing premature deaths right now and never will. “[D]evastating climate changes” will only occur “in the years beyond” “15 years or so” according to Stern, not now and not of that type. Wont happen as a result of GHG warming of course, but solar cooling? I think so, but perhaps not devastating. If economic change is really all about “overcoming” those “two chronic [non-climatic economic] issues” (since when was this the issue?), the proposed solution (“the shift to a low carbon global economy”) which involves shutting down large sectors of the global economy will have the… Read more »
Guest
Richard C (NZ)
‘Better Growth, Better Climate: The New Climate Economy Report’ (Stern 2.0) is from this outfit:
The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, commissioned by seven countries – Colombia, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Norway, South Korea, Sweden and the United Kingdom – as an independent initiative to report to the international community.
[Name still reverting to Richard+C+(NZ) RT, but I can edit that]
Guest
Richard C (NZ)
‘Better Growth, Better Climate: The New Climate Economy Report’
“Delay in managing climate risk only worsens the problem.”
“Above all, a global transition to a low-carbon and climate-resilient development path will need to be underpinned by an international agreement committing countries to this collective economic future.”
>”committing countries to this collective economic future” ?
Hmmm………many, many, people (66 million in the USSR alone) have died in countries “committing” to “collective” economic futures:
Collectivism – Politics
According to Moyra Grant, in political philosophy “collectivism” refers to any philosophy or system that puts any kind of group (such as a class, nation, race, society, state, etc.) before the individual.[4] According to Encyclopædia Britannica, “collectivism has found varying degrees of expression in the 20th century in such movements as socialism, communism, and fascism. The least collectivist of these is social democracy, which seeks to reduce the assumed inequities of unrestrained capitalism by government regulation, redistribution of income, and varying degrees of planning and public ownership. In communist systems collectivist economics are carried to their furthest extreme, with a minimum of private ownership and a maximum of planned economy.”[5]
‘The New Grand Minimum’ New Skills have been (sic) developed by actuaries if they are to understand the changes in risks that are occurring in the new solar grand minimum. Prepared by Brent Walker Presented to the Actuaries Institute Actuaries Summit 20-21 May 2013 Sydney Table of Contents Introduction …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 3 New Solar Grand Minimum …………………………………………………………………………………………………. 3 History of Solar Activity over Last Millennium ………………………………………………………………………… 3 International Panel on Climate Change View …………………………………………………………………………. 5 Use of Predictive Models …………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 5 The Little Ice-Age Climate Paradox ……………………………………………………………………………………….. 6 Food Security a Concern ……………………………………………………………………………………………………… 7 Summary ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 8 Variations in the Sun’s Emissions ……………………………………………………………………………………………… 9 Solar Cycles ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 9 Differences in Solar Emission Spectrum ………………………………………………………………………………… 9 Solar Emissions and the Atmosphere ………………………………………………………………………………….. 11 Sun Forces Climate Change ………………………………………………………………………………………………… 14 Magnetic Portals between Sun and Earth ……………………………………………………………………………. 16 Jet Streams, Polar Vortices and Coronal Mass Ejections ………………………………………………………… 16 Other Natural Risks …………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 22 Weather Extremes and Other Risks during Grand Minima ………………………………………………………… 24 Dalton Minimum Weather Extremes …………………………………………………………………………………… 24 Great Earthquakes ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 25 Stratospheric Volcanic Eruptions ………………………………………………………………………………………… 25 Appendix ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 27 UK weather from 1780-1820 ……………………………………………………………………………………………… 27 Australian Weather from 1788-1820 …………………………………………………………………………………… 32 Introduction The intention… Read more »
“Stop for a minute. Let that sink in. The total value of all the world’s oil reserves is over $100 trillion less than it was just a year and a half ago.”
Obama wants a $10 tax per barrel on US oil, doesn’t realize how much value has just been wiped in 18 months – $70 a barrel on 1700 billion barrels reserves worldwide.
Guest
Richard C (NZ)
‘Deutsche Bank is shaking to its foundations – is a new banking crisis around the corner?’
6 February 2016
Let’s now take a step back and explain why the problems at Deutsche Bank could have a huge negative impact on the world economy. Deutsche has a huge exposure to the derivatives market, and it’s impossible, and then we mean LITERALLY impossible for any government to bail out Deutsche Bank should things go terribly wrong.
Keep in mind the exposure of Deutsche Bank to its derivatives portfolio is a stunning 55B EUR, which is almost 20 times (yes, twenty times) the GDP of Germany and roughly 5 times the GDP of the entire Eurozone!
And to put things in perspective, the TOTAL government debt of the US government is less than 1/3rd of Deutsche Bank’s exposure.
Given CO2 emissions by container ships (far greater then national car fleets), this will show up in human emissions data and highlight the disconnect with atmospheric CO2 levels (already evident).
Also possibly a precursor to the Revelation 18 prophecy:
Rev 18:11 And the merchants of the earth shall weep and mourn over her [modern financial “Babylon”]; for no man buyeth their merchandise any more:
And,
Rev 18:17 For in one hour so great riches is come to nought. And every shipmaster, and all the company in ships, and sailors, and as many as trade by sea, stood afar off,
Rev 18:18 And cried when they saw the smoke of her [modern financial “Babylon’s”] burning, saying, What city is like unto this great city!
Also worth a read re China commodities trading in which traders appear to have gone full stupid: ‘China’s Commodity Frenzy Spurs New Crackdown From Exchanges’ Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said this week it was concerned about the surge in speculative trading in iron ore, adding daily volumes were so large that they sometimes exceed annual imports. Ore prices have climbed 35 percent this year in Dalian, while steel reinforcement bar is up 40 percent in Shanghai. Morgan Stanley said the spike in speculative trading had stunned global markets, citing a jump in activity in everything from eggs to garlic and steel. The explosive growth in trading has stoked concerns that the frenzy was triggered by a credit-fueled surge in liquidity echoing the stock market bubble in 2015 and is destined for a similar bust, according to Zheng Ge, analyst at CEFC Wanda Futures Co. China’s investors have been honing in on raw materials amid signs of a pickup in demand after policy makers talked up growth, added stimulus and the property market rebounded. More>>>>> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-27/china-s-commodity-frenzy-spurs-further-crackdown-from-exchanges # # # Get that? – “…the surge in speculative trading in iron ore, adding daily volumes were… Read more »
Guest
Richard C (NZ)
>”China’s crash will be horrendous’ China is on the verge of becoming Zespri’s largest market i.e. it’s greatest risk exposure: ‘Zespri launch biggest China season yet’ HENRY COOKE, April 22 2016 With thousands of Kiwifruit in port and Prime Minister John Key in town, New Zealand’s Zespri on Thursday launched what they say will be their biggest Chinese season yet. The kiwifruit exporter expects China to overtake Japan as its largest market by volume this season, which runs until November. Zespri projects China to account for just over a fifth of its total sales this year, with sales of about 24 million trays. This represents year-on-year growth of about 30 per cent, slightly downon 2015. Zespri chief operating officer Simon Limmer said: “China has been growing at a phenomenal rate, with a 50 per cent increase in volume last year”. “Most importantly, it’s going to become our most valuable market in the short term – this year or soon after. It’s going to be a value and volume market.” Europe and Japan continue as strong buyers, but China’s growing middle class is set to dominate sales. The Bay of Plenty-based company has the… Read more »
Guest
Richard C (NZ)
>”Given CO2 emissions by container ships (far greater then national car fleets), this will show up in human emissions data”
Wrong here, I was thinking terms of actual pollution. CO2 from shipping: 2.7% in 2007; vehicles accounted for about 7 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2006.
But given both a reduction in shipping AND the reduction in processing and burning of shipped commodities e.g. iron ore and coal, these reductions will certainly show up in emissions data. The last 3 years to 2015 were already flat i.e. no growth.
Integrated Assessment Modeling
10 Things to Know
1. What is Integrated Assessment (IA)?
2. What are Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs)?
3. How do IAMs and GCMs differ?
[…]
How do IAMs and GCMs differ?
Integrated assessment models generally include both physical and social science models that consider demographic, political, and economic variables that affect greenhouse gas emission scenarios in addition to the physical climate system. General Circulation Models (GCMs), however, focus on the physical climate system alone. Many IAMs do include some form of climate modeling scheme in their routines, such as zero-dimensional or 2-dimensional energy balance models, but due to computing time limitations it is currently infeasible to integrate a full 3-dimensional GCM with a human dimensions model to create an IAM. Until computers become fast enough to significantly reduce computation times, IAMs will not be able to configure a full GCM into their model structure, and must rely on simpler forms of climate models to forecast changes in climate based on future scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and other significant variables. For more information, see the Guide to General Circulation Models.
[Heads-up for AR5]
Example of integrated assessment model (IAM) output:-
‘The Social Cost of CO2 from the PAGE09 Model’
Chris Hope, 2011
Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge
http://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/research/working_papers/2011/wp1105.pdf
See Bishop Hill for PAGE09 input issues:-
‘Climate sensitivity and the Stern report’
http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2012/10/1/climate-sensitivity-and-the-stern-report.html
H/t Andy.
Excuse me, RC, but I think you’re talking to yourself… why don’t you fix yourself a nice hot milk and go to bed – your imaginary audience will still be here in the morning.
EU suspends aircraft emissions trading rules
The European Union has agreed to suspend its rules that require airlines flying to and from airports in the EU to pay for their carbon emissions.
The rules had been unpopular with countries outside Europe such as the US, China and India.
Climate commissioner Connie Hedegaard said she had proposed “stopping the clock for one year”.
She said the suspension was due to progress being made in negotiations on a global emissions deal.
But she added that if the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) did not make progress towards a global deal by this time next year the European tax would be reintroduced.
>>>>>>>>>
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20299388
Obama shields U.S. airlines from EU carbon fees
(Reuters) – President Barack Obama signed a bill on Tuesday shielding U.S. airlines from paying for each ton of carbon their planes emit flying into and out of Europe, despite a recent move by Europe to suspend its proposed measure for one year.
>>>>>>>
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/27/us-usa-airlines-emissions-idUSBRE8AQ1AR20121127?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&dlvrit=56943
from BH – ‘Climate, ethics and democracy’
The MIT Technology Review has a very interesting article about ethics and climate change and the knotty problem of discounting future costs:
[quote re “Broome”] “But his larger point is, more simply, that even such quantitative economic evaluations need to fully incorporate moral principles.”
You can see where this is leading. Market discount rates – the ones that people choose of their own volition – are wrong. The answer is not that the public should be persuaded to adopt a different approach to discounting the future but that a different discount rate must be imposed by unelected “experts”.
http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2013/4/18/climate-ethics-and-democracy.html
I’m so glad there are unelected “experts” ready to override my free choice and dictate my “moral principles”.
‘The Social Cost of Carbon’ [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)] Estimating the Benefits of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions EPA and other federal agencies use the social cost of carbon (SCC) to estimate the climate benefits of rulemakings. The SCC is an estimate of the economic damages associated with a small increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, conventionally one metric ton, in a given year. This dollar figure also represents the value of damages avoided for a small emission reduction (i.e. the benefit of a CO2 reduction). The SCC is meant to be a comprehensive estimate of climate change damages and includes changes in net agricultural productivity, human health, and property damages from increased flood risk. However, it does not include all important damages and, as noted by the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report [link], it is “very likely that [SCC] underestimates” the damages. The models used to develop SCC estimates, known as integrated assessment models, do not assign value to all of the important physical, ecological, and economic impacts of climate change recognized in the climate change literature because of a lack of precise information on the nature of damages and because the science… Read more »
Technical Support Document: Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis Under Executive Order 12866 Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon, United States Government With participation by �Council of Economic Advisers �Council on Environmental Quality �Department of Agriculture �Department of Commerce �Department of Energy �Department of Transportation �Environmental Protection Agency �National Economic Council �Office of Energy and Climate Change �Office of Management and Budget �Office of Science and Technology Policy �Department of the Treasury February 2010 I. Monetizing Carbon Dioxide Emissions II. Social Cost of Carbon Values Used in Past Regulatory Analyses III. Approach and Key Assumptions A. Integrated Assessment Models The DICE Model The PAGE Model The FUND Model B. Global versus Domestic Measures of SCC Damage Functions Global SCC Domestic SCC C. Valuing Non-CO2 Emissions D. Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Table 1: Summary Statistics for Four Calibrated Climate Sensitivity Distributions Figure 2: Estimates of the Probability Density Function for Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (°C) E. Socio-Economic and Emissions Trajectories F. Discount Rate The Discount Rates Selected for Estimating SCC IV. Revised SCC Estimates Table 3: Disaggregated Social Cost of CO2 Values by Model, Socio-Economic Trajectory, and Discount Rate for 2010 (in… Read more »
‘AN EVIDENCE-BASED APPROACH TO PRICING CO2 EMISSIONS’ Ross McKitrick I propose ……… that the best way to proceed would be to put a small tax on CO2 emissions, and tie its subsequent evolution to a suitable measure of atmospheric temperatures. If temperatures go up, so does the tax. If they do not, the tax does not change. In this way everybody will expect to get the policy they think best, and whoever turns out to be right deserves to be so. Sceptics who do not believe in global warming will not expect the tax to go up, and might even expect it to go down. Those convinced we are in for rapid warming will expect the tax to rise quickly in the years ahead. Companies managing factories and power plants will have to figure out who is more likely to be right, because billions of dollars of potential tax liabilities will depend on what is going to happen. Nobody will benefit from using false or exaggerated science: instead the market will identify those who can prove they understand the climate well enough to make accurate forecasts. And policy-makers will be guaranteed that, whatever… Read more »
Roger Pielke Jr. @RogerPielkeJr 11h
Here is the @LloydsofLondon 2013 Risk Index–> http://www.lloyds.com/news-and-insight/risk-insight/lloyds-risk-index … On the index climate change at number 32, natural hazards in the 40s
https://twitter.com/RogerPielkeJr/status/354925939798450176
2013 RISKS (page 33)
1 High taxation
2 Loss of customers/cancelled orders
3 Cyber risk
4 Price of material inputs
5 Excessively strict regulation
6 Changing legislation
7 Inflation
8 Cost and availability of credit
9 Rapid technological changes
10 Currency fluctuation
11 Interest rate change
12 Talent and skills shortage
13 Reputational risk
14 Corporate liability
15 Major asset price volatility
16 Poor/incomplete regulation
17 Government spending cuts
18 Fraud and corruption
19 Theft of assets/Intellectual Property
20 Failed investment
21 Corporate governance and internal
oversight failure
22 Critical infrastructure failure
23 Supply chain failure
24 Increased protectionism
25 Insolvency risk
26 Energy security
27 Demographic shift
28 Industrial/workplace accident
29 Pollution and environmental liability
30 Sovereign debt
31 Piracy
32 Climate change <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
33 Water scarcity
34 Strikes and industrial action
35 Population growth
36 Expropriation of assets
37 Urbanisation
38 Food security
39 Harmful effects of new technology
40 Pandemic
41 Abrupt regime change
42 Terrorism
43 Riots and civil commotion
44 Flooding
45 Windstorm
46 Drought
47 Threats to biodiversity and conservation
affecting our operations
48 Earthquake
49 Impact of space weather
50 Volcanic eruption
http://www.lloyds.com/~/media/Files/News%20and%20Insight/Risk%20Insight/Risk%20Index%202013/Report/Lloyds%20Risk%20Index%202013report100713.pdf
Interesting that earthquake is number 48. I suspect this list will be somewhat different for NZ.
I have recently heard a few tales of retailers shutting up shop because they cannot afford the new insurance premiums and earthquake building codes.
Obama’s Climate Action Plan: How it miscalculates the social cost of carbon. – Slate Magazine ‘Wrong Number’ Obama’s new climate plan is based on a dubious calculation and falls woefully short. By Eric Posner […] Where does the SCC come from? In 2010, the White House convened a group of officials from across the government to calculate this number. The group used three computer models that estimate the economic impacts of climate change, the most famous of which was created by Yale economist William Nordhaus. In May, the group updated its analysis, yielding the $38 figure above. (There are other figures based on other assumptions, but $38 will most likely be the one the EPA and other agencies use.) Nordhaus’ model starts with the historic growth rate of the global economy and then estimates the amount that climate-related damage will reduce it. The problem, which Nordhaus candidly acknowledges, is that no one has any idea what the economic impact of climate change will be (other than that it will be very bad). So he waves his hands and makes a guess based on his reading of various climate studies. The key claim is… Read more »
[Posner] – “The bottom line is this: The current SCC calculation embodies the worst of both worlds: too low from the standpoint of global well-being, too high from the standpoint of law. When power companies challenge the new climate regulations in court—we won’t have to wait long—they will argue that the rules fail a cost-benefit analysis. Courts don’t always demand cost-benefit analyses, but they sometimes do, and even if they don’t here, the arbitrary assumptions underlying the government’s number will bother them, as they should.”
I looked for NZ but we just get lumped into Asia-Pacific. There’s Chart 7 on page 23: ‘Natural hazards – priority and preparedness by region’ And APPENDIX 2 Chart 8, page 34: ‘Top 50 priority risk scores in 2013 – Asia-Pacific’ The earthquake ranking is up 3 from the global average to 45 in Asia-Pacific and the “preparedness” is much better than South Africa for example (natch). The climate change ranking is different for each region too e.g. varying 43 Europe to 30 Latin America (32 Asia-Pacific). The free mag ‘Tauranga & Rotorua Property investor’ May edition devoted 3 articles over 5 pages to seismic strengthening, The third one is: ‘Seismic strengthening – a disaster in its own right’ – “As more becomes known about the cost of seismic strengthening, some owners face losing all their equity” The risk for these people from retroactive earthquake mitigation is substantial and already realized, The risk from an actual earthquake is still in the future. A fellow I knew from my school days has a block in downtown Tauranga and was featured in the BOP Times saying he was just going to demolish and rebuild. That… Read more »
Surprising testimony of Robert Murphy at the U.S. Senate Hearing “Climate Change: It’s Happening Now”:
“The American public and policymakers alike have been led to believe that the social cost of carbon is an objective scientific concept akin to the mass of the moon or the radius of the sun. However, although there are inputs from the physical sciences into the calculation, estimates of the social cost of carbon are heavily dependent on modeling assumptions. In particular, if the White House Working Group had followed OMB guidance on either the choice of discount rate or reporting from a domestic perspective, then the official estimates of the current SCC would probably be close to zero, or possibly even negative—a situation meaning that (within this context) the federal government should be subsidizing coal-fired power plants because their activities confer external benefits on humanity.”
http://judithcurry.com/2013/07/18/u-s-senate-hearing-climate-change-its-happening-now/#more-12235
‘A Closer Look at the Government’s Determination of the Social Costs of Carbon’
By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger
“…..the government’s determination and use of the social cost of carbon is simply a bad idea. The extreme sensitivity to its input parameters means that the final answer is easily molded to be whatever the user desires it to be. And since the current government user desires a limit on carbon dioxide emissions, the SCC is positive and has gotten larger just in time for the new round of proposed regulations and executive actions—ignoring new climate science in the process.”
http://www.cato.org/blog/closer-look-epas-determination-social-costs-carbon
Michaels and Knappenberger:
“The SCC is about 5 times greater using a 2.5 percent rate than a 5 percent rate. Murphy argues that by federal guidelines (OMB Circular A-4), the Interagency Working Group should also have considered the SCC under a 7 percent discount rate. And had they done so, they very likely would have found the SCC to be negative (i.e., that carbon emissions conferred a net benefit to society). But that would have been an inconvenient result, so the Interagency Working Group ignored that federal guideline.”
“They also dismissed the directive to report the costs and benefits from a domestic perspective, where costs are only considered to be a fraction of the total global costs (according to the Interagency Working Group, between 7 percent and 23 percent). Considering a 7 percent discount rate and the new science indicating a lower climate sensitivity and almost assuredly, the domestic costs would approach zero (if not, in fact, be negative).”
“We think the blunders the Obama administration has committed in setting their “price” of carbon dioxide and methane (as opposed to the silly “carbon”) may be actionable, action we’d be happy to contribute to.”
‘Lawmakers vote to thwart EPA move on ‘social cost of carbon’ ‘
By Ben Geman and Pete Kasperowicz
The House voted Thursday to block the Environmental Protection Agency from weighing the benefits of curbing carbon emissions when crafting major energy-related regulations.
Lawmakers voted 234-178 for Rep. Tim Murphy’s (R-Pa.) amendment to prevent EPA from factoring the “social cost of carbon” into rules unless a federal law is enacted that allows its consideration.
Fifteen Democrats voted with almost all Republicans for the amendment, while three Republicans opposed it.
The amendment was tacked onto GOP legislation that allows the Energy Department to veto EPA rules with $1 billion or more in costs if the department determines they would harm the economy.
[…]
The underlying bill is slated to clear the House Thursday afternoon but faces dim prospects in the Democrat-led Senate.
Read more: http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/315091-house-votes-to-thwart-epa-on-social-cost-of-carbon#ixzz2albN594i
‘IER’s Robert Murphy on the Social Cost of Carbon’ by Marlo Lewis […] Murphy challenges the intellectual bona fides of the Obama administration’s May 2013 Technical Support Document (TSD) on the social cost of carbon (SCC). Climate activists increasingly invoke SCC estimates to justify the imposition of carbon taxes, fuel economy mandates, Soviet-style production quota for wind farms, fracking bans, and other interventions to rig the marketplace against reliable, affordable, fossil energy. They speak as if SCC estimates disclose an objective reality like the boiling point of water or the specific gravity of iron. In fact, SCC estimates are assumption-driven hocus-pocus or, as my colleague Myron Ebell prefers to say, “hogwash.” […] The only point I would add to Murphy’s trenchant analysis is that even if (a) the climatological, meteorological, and technological forecasts underpinning SCC estimates were accurate, (b) agencies use appropriate discount rates, and (c) agencies use U.S. domestic SCC estimates in cost-benefit analysis, SCC analyses would still be one-sided and misleading. Even if scrupulously based on the best science and economics, SCC analyses would still ignore the social benefits — the positive externalities — of affordable, reliable, carbon-based energy. Consequently, such… Read more »
‘Scathing MIT Paper Blasts Obama’s Climate Models’ Author:Robert Murphy […] Current Crop of Computer Models “Close to Useless” It is this second class of models, the economic/climate hybrids called Integrated Assessment Models, that Pindyck discusses. Pindyck’s paper is titled, “Climate Change Policy: What Do the Models Tell Us?” Here is his shocking answer, contained in the abstract: Very little. A plethora of integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been constructed and used to estimate the social cost of carbon (SCC) and evaluate alternative abatement policies. These models have crucial flaws that make them close to useless as tools for policy analysis: certain inputs (e.g. the discount rate) are arbitrary, but have huge effects on the SCC estimates the models produce; the models’ descriptions of the impact of climate change are completely ad hoc, with no theoretical or empirical foundation; and the models can tell us nothing about the most important driver of the SCC, the possibility of a catastrophic climate outcome. IAM-based analyses of climate policy create a perception of knowledge and precision, but that perception is illusory and misleading. [Bold added.] For those unfamiliar with academic prose, such inflammatory language is almost unheard-of,… Read more »
Robert Murphy’s follow-up IER post:
‘MIT Economist on Bogus Climate Damage Functions’
In my previous post, I summarized Robert S. Pindyck’s scathing paper on the computer models used by the Obama Administration for its estimates of the “social cost of carbon.” Pindyck’s critique is all the more compelling because he is a professor of economics and finance at MIT, with several decades’ experience publishing articles and books dealing with energy, and he is actually a proponent of a carbon tax. In the present article, I will explore a particular aspect of Pindyck’s critique that I skipped in the original post. Believe it or not, Pindyck explains that the allegedly state-of-the-art computer models that are now determining federal policy have damage functions that are literally made up. As I have been telling my economist colleagues for years, if they actually understood how these computer models were designed, they would have far less confidence in the “optimal carbon tax” numbers shooting out of the other end.
>>>>>>>>
http://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/2013/08/21/mit-economist-on-bogus-climate-damage-functions/
‘World Is Spending $1 Billion Per Day To Tackle Global Warming’
* EurActiv
The world invested almost a billion dollars a day in limiting global warming last year, but the total figure – $359 billion – was slightly down on last year, and barely half the $700 billion per year that the World Economic Forum has said is needed to tackle climate change.
These are the findings spelled out in the latest Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) report. For the first time, it estimated global North-South cash flows at between $39 and $62 billion.
But the total funding pot fell $5 billion from 2012, and remains just a tiny fraction of the $5 trillion that the International Energy Agency estimates is required by 2020 for clean energy projects alone, if rising temperatures are to be pegged at 2 degrees Celsius.
>>>>>>>
http://www.thegwpf.org/world-spending-1-billion-day-tackle-global-warming/
‘Economist Says Best Climate Fix A Tough Sell, But Worth It’ by Richard Harris | February 11, 2014 We often talk about climate change as a matter of science. But the biggest questions are really about money. How much would it cost to fix the problem — and what price will we pay if we don’t? The man who invented the field of climate economics 40 years ago says there’s actually a straightforward way to solve the problem. William Nordhaus has written a book [‘Climate Casino’] that lays it out in simple terms. […] “Actually from an economic point of view, it’s a pretty simple problem,” he says. If people would simply pay the cost of using the atmosphere as a dump for carbon dioxide, that would create a powerful incentive to dump less and invest in cleaner ways to generate energy. But how do you do that? “We need to put a price on carbon, so that when anyone, anywhere, anytime does something that puts carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, there’s a price tag on that,” he says. His colleagues say that inspiration — now taken for granted — makes Nordhaus a… Read more »
‘The crazy world of Renewable Energy Targets’
JoNova, August 18th, 2014
[…] The RET scheme in Australian pays a subsidy to wind farms and solar installations. Below, Tom Quirk shows that this is effectively a carbon tax (but a lousy one), and it shifts supply — perversely taxing brown coal at $27/ton, black coal at $40/ton and gas at up to $100/ton. Because it’s applied to renewables rather than CO2 directly, it’s effectively a higher tax rate for the non-renewable but lower CO2 emitters. […]
Renewable energy sources – Complications!
Guest post by Tom Quirk
http://joannenova.com.au/2014/08/the-crazy-world-of-renewable-energy-targets/
RET Review report
Renewable Energy Target Scheme
Report of the Expert Panel
Here:
https://www.climateconversation.org.nz/open-threads/climate/regions/australia/comment-page-2/#comment-869818
The Hartwell Paper
A new direction for climate policy after the crash of 2009
May 2010
http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/27939/1/HartwellPaper_English_version.pdf
The Kaya Identity page 27 pdf
The Left vs. the Climate
Why Progressives Should Reject Naomi Klein’s Pastoral Fantasy — and Embrace Our High-Energy Planet
September 18, 2014 | Will Boisvert
http://thebreakthrough.org/index.php/programs/energy-and-climate/the-left-vs.-the-climate
Stern’s Turn
Posted by Ben Pile on September 16, 2014
Stern presented the world with a stark choice: pay 1% of GDP to fix climate change now, or lose at least 5% of GDP in the future.
It is a surprise then, to see Nicholas Stern in today’s Guardian, arguing that growth is now possible:………..
http://www.climate-resistance.org/2014/09/sterns-turn.html
‘This changes everything’ – Naomi Klein’s “everythingism”
But so does the new Mercedes S Class apparently:
http://www.mercedes-benz.co.za/content/south_africa/mpc/mpc_south_africa_website/en/home_mpc/passengercars/home/new_cars/models/s-class/w222.bWVkaWFTdGFnZS5TaW5nbGU~-4134653531-FallbackImage.jpeg
Even our own Rod Oram is drinking the Stern koolaid…
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/10519660/Missing-the-big-picture
My reply to Mike went to moderation. Not sure how I became Richard+C+(NZ), I didn’t type that in. [That’s mysterious. Your original comment is still sitting there and it seems normal, except for the spurious characters. I’ve been carrying out some maintenance, so perhaps that affected something. Sorry about that. – RT]
Difficulties posting (comment in Mods or disappeared and Name changed) so here’s my reply to Mike again: From the Oram article: “The report [Stern’s] says that beginning the shift to a low carbon global economy is the best way to overcome two chronic issues: developed countries are suffering from economic stagnation following the Global Financial Crisis; and developing countries are suffering from rapid deterioration of their air, land and water. For example air pollution is causing seven million premature deaths a year around the world. ” Except neither situation is climate change and carbon dioxide emissions aren’t causing premature deaths right now and never will. “[D]evastating climate changes” will only occur “in the years beyond” “15 years or so” according to Stern, not now and not of that type. Wont happen as a result of GHG warming of course, but solar cooling? I think so, but perhaps not devastating. If economic change is really all about “overcoming” those “two chronic [non-climatic economic] issues” (since when was this the issue?), the proposed solution (“the shift to a low carbon global economy”) which involves shutting down large sectors of the global economy will have the… Read more »
‘Better Growth, Better Climate: The New Climate Economy Report’ (Stern 2.0) is from this outfit:
The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, commissioned by seven countries – Colombia, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Norway, South Korea, Sweden and the United Kingdom – as an independent initiative to report to the international community.
http://newclimateeconomy.net/content/about
The Global Commission (is it really?) includes Helen Clark, Administrator, UN Development Progamme, and former Prime Minister of New Zealand
http://newclimateeconomy.net/content/global-commission
All built on a house of cards. My comment at Stuff: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/10519660/Missing-the-big-picture
[Name still reverting to Richard+C+(NZ) RT, but I can edit that]
‘Better Growth, Better Climate: The New Climate Economy Report’
“Delay in managing climate risk only worsens the problem.”
“Above all, a global transition to a low-carbon and climate-resilient development path will need to be underpinned by an international agreement committing countries to this collective economic future.”
>”committing countries to this collective economic future” ?
Hmmm………many, many, people (66 million in the USSR alone) have died in countries “committing” to “collective” economic futures:
Collectivism – Politics
According to Moyra Grant, in political philosophy “collectivism” refers to any philosophy or system that puts any kind of group (such as a class, nation, race, society, state, etc.) before the individual.[4] According to Encyclopædia Britannica, “collectivism has found varying degrees of expression in the 20th century in such movements as socialism, communism, and fascism. The least collectivist of these is social democracy, which seeks to reduce the assumed inequities of unrestrained capitalism by government regulation, redistribution of income, and varying degrees of planning and public ownership. In communist systems collectivist economics are carried to their furthest extreme, with a minimum of private ownership and a maximum of planned economy.”[5]
http://www.princeton.edu/~achaney/tmve/wiki100k/docs/Collectivism.html
What could possibly go wrong?
‘The New Grand Minimum’ New Skills have been (sic) developed by actuaries if they are to understand the changes in risks that are occurring in the new solar grand minimum. Prepared by Brent Walker Presented to the Actuaries Institute Actuaries Summit 20-21 May 2013 Sydney Table of Contents Introduction …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 3 New Solar Grand Minimum …………………………………………………………………………………………………. 3 History of Solar Activity over Last Millennium ………………………………………………………………………… 3 International Panel on Climate Change View …………………………………………………………………………. 5 Use of Predictive Models …………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 5 The Little Ice-Age Climate Paradox ……………………………………………………………………………………….. 6 Food Security a Concern ……………………………………………………………………………………………………… 7 Summary ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 8 Variations in the Sun’s Emissions ……………………………………………………………………………………………… 9 Solar Cycles ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 9 Differences in Solar Emission Spectrum ………………………………………………………………………………… 9 Solar Emissions and the Atmosphere ………………………………………………………………………………….. 11 Sun Forces Climate Change ………………………………………………………………………………………………… 14 Magnetic Portals between Sun and Earth ……………………………………………………………………………. 16 Jet Streams, Polar Vortices and Coronal Mass Ejections ………………………………………………………… 16 Other Natural Risks …………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 22 Weather Extremes and Other Risks during Grand Minima ………………………………………………………… 24 Dalton Minimum Weather Extremes …………………………………………………………………………………… 24 Great Earthquakes ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 25 Stratospheric Volcanic Eruptions ………………………………………………………………………………………… 25 Appendix ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 27 UK weather from 1780-1820 ……………………………………………………………………………………………… 27 Australian Weather from 1788-1820 …………………………………………………………………………………… 32 Introduction The intention… Read more »
Waiting for Collapse: USA Debt Bombs Bursting”
by William Edstrom, September 23, 2015
http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/09/23/waiting-for-collapse-usa-debt-bombs-bursting/
Via Debt Rattle
http://www.theautomaticearth.com/the-automatic-earth/
‘$100 Trillion Up in Smoke’
By John Mauldin February 6, 2016
“Stop for a minute. Let that sink in. The total value of all the world’s oil reserves is over $100 trillion less than it was just a year and a half ago.”
http://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/100-trillion-up-in-smoke
# # #
Obama wants a $10 tax per barrel on US oil, doesn’t realize how much value has just been wiped in 18 months – $70 a barrel on 1700 billion barrels reserves worldwide.
‘Deutsche Bank is shaking to its foundations – is a new banking crisis around the corner?’
6 February 2016
Let’s now take a step back and explain why the problems at Deutsche Bank could have a huge negative impact on the world economy. Deutsche has a huge exposure to the derivatives market, and it’s impossible, and then we mean LITERALLY impossible for any government to bail out Deutsche Bank should things go terribly wrong.
Keep in mind the exposure of Deutsche Bank to its derivatives portfolio is a stunning 55B EUR, which is almost 20 times (yes, twenty times) the GDP of Germany and roughly 5 times the GDP of the entire Eurozone!
And to put things in perspective, the TOTAL government debt of the US government is less than 1/3rd of Deutsche Bank’s exposure.
http://secularinvestor.com/deutsche-bank-shaking-foundations-new-banking-crisis-around-corner/13242/
# # #
Auf Wiedersehen Deutsche Bank
Sobering news from China and Europe:
And,
From:
‘Once Bustling Trade Ports in Asia and Europe Lose Steam’
From Shanghai to Hamburg, container-shipping industry is gripped by economic undertow
http://www.wsj.com/articles/once-bustling-trade-ports-in-asia-and-europe-lose-steam-1461696304
# # #
Given CO2 emissions by container ships (far greater then national car fleets), this will show up in human emissions data and highlight the disconnect with atmospheric CO2 levels (already evident).
Also possibly a precursor to the Revelation 18 prophecy:
Rev 18:11 And the merchants of the earth shall weep and mourn over her [modern financial “Babylon”]; for no man buyeth their merchandise any more:
And,
Rev 18:17 For in one hour so great riches is come to nought. And every shipmaster, and all the company in ships, and sailors, and as many as trade by sea, stood afar off,
Rev 18:18 And cried when they saw the smoke of her [modern financial “Babylon’s”] burning, saying, What city is like unto this great city!
https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Revelation+18
Also worth a read re China commodities trading in which traders appear to have gone full stupid: ‘China’s Commodity Frenzy Spurs New Crackdown From Exchanges’ Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said this week it was concerned about the surge in speculative trading in iron ore, adding daily volumes were so large that they sometimes exceed annual imports. Ore prices have climbed 35 percent this year in Dalian, while steel reinforcement bar is up 40 percent in Shanghai. Morgan Stanley said the spike in speculative trading had stunned global markets, citing a jump in activity in everything from eggs to garlic and steel. The explosive growth in trading has stoked concerns that the frenzy was triggered by a credit-fueled surge in liquidity echoing the stock market bubble in 2015 and is destined for a similar bust, according to Zheng Ge, analyst at CEFC Wanda Futures Co. China’s investors have been honing in on raw materials amid signs of a pickup in demand after policy makers talked up growth, added stimulus and the property market rebounded. More>>>>> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-27/china-s-commodity-frenzy-spurs-further-crackdown-from-exchanges # # # Get that? – “…the surge in speculative trading in iron ore, adding daily volumes were… Read more »
>”China’s crash will be horrendous’ China is on the verge of becoming Zespri’s largest market i.e. it’s greatest risk exposure: ‘Zespri launch biggest China season yet’ HENRY COOKE, April 22 2016 With thousands of Kiwifruit in port and Prime Minister John Key in town, New Zealand’s Zespri on Thursday launched what they say will be their biggest Chinese season yet. The kiwifruit exporter expects China to overtake Japan as its largest market by volume this season, which runs until November. Zespri projects China to account for just over a fifth of its total sales this year, with sales of about 24 million trays. This represents year-on-year growth of about 30 per cent, slightly downon 2015. Zespri chief operating officer Simon Limmer said: “China has been growing at a phenomenal rate, with a 50 per cent increase in volume last year”. “Most importantly, it’s going to become our most valuable market in the short term – this year or soon after. It’s going to be a value and volume market.” Europe and Japan continue as strong buyers, but China’s growing middle class is set to dominate sales. The Bay of Plenty-based company has the… Read more »
>”Given CO2 emissions by container ships (far greater then national car fleets), this will show up in human emissions data”
Wrong here, I was thinking terms of actual pollution. CO2 from shipping: 2.7% in 2007; vehicles accounted for about 7 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2006.
But given both a reduction in shipping AND the reduction in processing and burning of shipped commodities e.g. iron ore and coal, these reductions will certainly show up in emissions data. The last 3 years to 2015 were already flat i.e. no growth.
RC,
You surprise me with this OT excursion. Not a big leap from emissions of GHG to economics and trade, but a huge leap to the Bible.
Perhaps interesting to Bible scholars, Richard, but this blog does not currently and has no plans to appeal to them.