No escape from climate reality or alarm

There’s no escaping the relentless barrage of climate alarm. Two weeks ago Mike Hosking accused us all of dishonesty over climate change, for we lament the potential of fossil fuels to destroy us while our emissions reach record levels and we use ever more coal, oil and gas but politicians around the world do nothing about it.

News media from Toronto to Te Puke hector us that “climate related disasters” are increasing but shoot themselves in the foot when they picture bushfires “caused by climate change.” The New York Times exemplifies the huge gaps between alarmist rhetoric and reality with blatant factual distortions designed to heighten public anxiety.

“Things are getting worse,” said Petteri Taalas, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization, which [recently] issued its annual state of the global climate report, concluding a decade of what it called exceptional global heat. “It’s more urgent than ever to proceed with mitigation.”

To these doomsters it doesn’t matter what they say because the news media will never falsify it. The news media take the view that, since everyone else has been claiming rising temperatures over the last few decades, what does it matter if we say it again today? We can hardly be blamed for it.

Well, I’m drawing a line in the sand — it’s wrong.

Rising temperatures?

UAH (satellite) global temperature record since 1979 (41 years). The peaks where temperature suddenly soars and quickly returns to its origin occur under the influence of El Ninos, which generally increase the global surface temperature. In other words, they are one-offs, not a sign of a warming trend. This graph shows that, from about 1995 to mid-2019, there’s been precious little warming. If solar symptoms are any indication, we’re on the brink of substantial cooling.

But it’s so very tempting to think the temperature peaks are caused by human emissions. I pondered how to convey the sense that they are entirely natural events. The Multivariate ENSO Index Version 2 (MEI2), from NOAA (next), shows warm and cold events since 1979. The index is a mathematical amalgamation of the surface wind, sea surface temperature, surface air temperature and cloudiness. Warm (red) and cold (blue) periods are based on a threshold of +/- 0.5 of those dimensionless MEI2 units. It looks like this:

I wondered whether overlaying this index of El Nino and La Nina events on the temperature graph might give a reasonable sense of the correlation between them and the global temperature spikes, and here it is:

It seems to work. Remembering that there’s no correlation of the Y-axes, so it’s only the vertical movements in each graph (the blue lines and the red/blue shading) that might be significant. So from about 1995/96 there’s no distinct warming trend evident until the last 12 months or so, when that apparently descending 37-month running average might do anything.

I think it’s reasonable, but let me know what you think.

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Maggy WassilieffRichard TreadgoldBrett KeaneGwanMack Recent comment authors
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Simon
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Simon

If El Niños were causing the increasing trend in surface temperatures, then the oceans would have to be cooling because that is where the additional heat is coming from. However, the oceans are also warming so the energy is coming from outside the system.
It’s not the sun, as solar output is very slightly decreasing due to the current phase of Milankovitch and sunspot cycles.
The source is the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases.

Mack
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Mack

“…..so the energy is coming from outside the system”

I must confess, it’s a strange feeling being “outside the system”. Perhaps “the system” is a closed system and all us humans should be outside “the system”. Seems the most logical scientific explanation to me.
Whatever, Simon sez that a whole heap of energy is coming from some of us humans who’ve somehow managed to get themselves inside “the system”… too much human activity. I blame it on all those people jogging in the streets.

Maggy Wassilieff
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Maggy Wassilieff

Oh dear, how do we explain the warming of the Southern Ocean and melting of the West Antarctic Ice sheet when CO2 levels were low 1 million years ago?

Southern Ocean temperature records and ice-sheet models demonstrate rapid Antarctic ice sheet retreat under low atmospheric CO2 during Marine Isotope Stage 31

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0277379119306122?via%3Dihub

Maggy Wassilieff
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Maggy Wassilieff

This looks to be the full paper…
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-02385673/document

they provide a diagram of how they imagine the deep water advects over the continental shelf.

They are not sure of the cause of the warming… but it’s a well-studied interglacial stage… they postulate:
The unusual MIS31 orbital
configuration resulted in an extended period (~ 2000 years) of warm and long-lasting
summer seasons that caused mild warming of Southern Ocean surface waters and the
reduction of sea ice development or survival. Concomitantly, the prevailing Southern
Hemisphere Westerly Winds and the easterly coastal winds migrated to the south
(Fig. 6). The poleward shifted winds warmed the coastal waters, thus bringing heat
southwards thereby initiating basal melting of ice shelves and the retreat of the
marine-based grounding lines.

Marine Isotope stages – the numbering system used for alternating warm and cold periods of Earth’s paleoclimate (we are in MIS 1 ….the last 12000- – 14,000 years)

There’s about 100 stages (warm/cold) back through the last 6 Million years.

Maggy Wassilieff
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Maggy Wassilieff

That sentence is referencing this Paper
https://www.clim-past.net/15/735/2019/

The mention of the boreal summer temp increase of 1.2C is in 3rd para down in the section 2.2.1 atmospheric conditions.

It is confusing, as elsewhere that paper talks of global T being up to 6C higher during the MIS31 superinterglacial…than present day temperatures.

(but as it is basically a speculative modelling exercise… I can’t be bothered reading the paper thoroughly)

Simon
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Simon

Interesting paper Maggy. It’s a scary read:

We show that the Paris Agreement target temperature of 1.5°C is sufficient to drive runaway retreat of the WAIS.

Maggy Wassilieff
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Maggy Wassilieff

It’s a scary read:

Oh gosh, I haven’t ruined your Xmas, have I?

Relax Simon… there’s a fair degree of spin in the paper…

Anyway, these chaps reckon the WAIS collapse has all ready started
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/344/6185/735

but… Wait….the Earth rebounds…
https://theconversation.com/the-west-antarctic-ice-sheet-is-in-trouble-but-the-ground-beneath-it-may-buy-some-time-98368

Gwan
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Gwan

I have to agree with you Richard . Our regional news paper part of the Stuff group announced they were going “full retard’ all out on climate change . We have been bombarded with absolute lies and today some clown wrote about climate gate and stated that although climate gate threw a spanner in the great climate scam , this clown claimed there was nothing wrong with the texts between climate scientists . We really can pin this back to 1995 and Ben Santer who was appointed lead author of chapter 8 “Detection of Climate Change and Attribution of Causes” of the 1995 IPCC Report . His fellow chapter authors agreed to a final draft Here is what they agreed to at a meeting in Madrid . 1″ None of the studies cited have shown clear evidence that we can attribute the observed (climate ) changes to the specific cause of increase of greenhouse gases.” 3 “Any claims of positive detection and of positive detection and attribution of significant climate change are likely to remain controversial untill uncertainties in the total natural variability of the climate system are reduced ” 4″While none of… Read more »

Brett Keane
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Brett Keane

Yeah, Dead right! Brett

Brett Keane
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Brett Keane

Yes, and Maxwell’s ‘KINETICS OF GASES’ plus Einstein’s 1917 follow-on totally aborted all CO2 possibilities as touted. Ignored because they are old, another century will see them remembered with respect while warmista will be cursed by the survivors. The trolls will perish much sooner with Soros’ funding, anonymous Simons et alia. Brett Keane
PS, notice how late Spring and since, waqrming weather is soon followed by colder spells. This is noticed more in less Maritime climates, and crops have begun failing….

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