GWPF Newsletter 06/09/17

GWPF newsletter – republished by permission

The Global Warming Policy Foundation is chaired by Lord Lawson and managed by Dr Benny Peiser, a man of seemingly boundless energy. They have a long list of scientists and other experts to call on for advice. The GWPF newsletter is a high-quality round-up of the mos significant climate-related news and a dependable source of scientific information with informed, level-headed analysis on a range of climate change topics covering science, policy, energy and economics.

Like many readers, I find the GWPF newsletter tremendously informative and often read it from cover to cover. It deserves the widest possible distribution. Here is the latest edition: the longer extracts have been shortened but the links retained, including one where you can sign up for your own copy.

Republishing should introduce it to even more New Zealanders and encourage discussion. I hope you enjoy it as much as I do. — RT

 

Pacific Ocean Cools Rapidly

La Nina Threatens Early Return

 

South Africa Set For Biggest Maize Crop Harvest On Record

Forecasts for an El Nino this winter have given way to the prospect of more La Nina-like conditions as sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern Pacific cool rapidly. Surface temperatures in the critical area of the Pacific have fallen to 0.2 degrees Celsius below average, down from 0.7 degrees above average in the week centred on June 28. The rapid cooling has forced meteorologists to reassess the outlook for the northern hemisphere winter.John Kemp, Reuters, 5 September 2017

 

South Africa is set for its biggest maize crop harvest on record following improved weather conditions. At least 16.4 million tonnes of maize can be expected from the maize belt this season. Almost 60 percent of the yield will be white maize, which is the regional staple used for human consumption. —The South Africa, 1 September 2017

 

In 2015, a vicious El Niño weather pattern swept across southern Africa. When it intensified the following year, it caused severe droughts and threatened the food security of millions. But in 2017, that trend is set to reverse. South Africa is expecting a 15.63m tonne maize harvest, the highest yield of the crop ever. Now 85 percent of South Africa’s crop is genetically modified, with even Malawian and Zambian farmers taking up higher-yield seeds at a rapid rate. With the surplus, maize prices have dropped some 60 percent since last year. While this is good news for some consumers, for farmers it is making it hard to balance accounts. The solution: look to export the bumper crop. –Charlie Mitchell, This Is Africa, 27 June 2017

 

1) Pacific Ocean Cools Rapidly, La Nina Threatens Early Return

John Kemp, Reuters, 5 September 2017

 

2) South Africa Set For Biggest Maize Crop Harvest On Record

The South Africa, 1 September 2017

 

3) After El Nino Drought, An Overabundance Of Maize In Southern Africa

This Is Africa, 27 June 2017

 

4) Chinese Scientists Identify Natural Driving Forces Of Climate Change

Geli Wang, Peicai Yang & Xiuji Zhou, Scientific Reports, April 2017

 

5) Blaming The Weather: The Moral Danger Of The Securitization Of Climate Change

Marloes van Loon, Leiden University

 

6) Turning Africa’s Lights On Should Be A Homegrown Priority

Geoff Hill, Daily Maverick, 4 September 2017  

 

7) Tony Abbott To Deliver Annual Lecture To Leading Climate Policy Think Tank

The Australian, 2 September 2017

 

8) Benny Peiser: Climate Realism – A Lukewarm Approach To Global Warming

University of Birmingham

 

The identification of causal effects is a fundamental problem in climate change research. Here, a new perspective on climate change causality is presented using the central England temperature (CET) dataset, the longest instrumental temperature record, and a combination of slow feature analysis and wavelet analysis. The driving forces of climate change were investigated and the results showed two independent degrees of freedom —a 3.36-year cycle and a 22.6-year cycle, which seem to be connected to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation cycle and the Hale sunspot cycle, respectively. —Geli Wang, Peicai Yang & Xiuji Zhou, Scientific Reports, April 2017

 

The numbers are scary. Africa, with 1.2-billion people and 20% of global land mass, makes just 3% of the world’s electricity. GWPF director, Dr Benny Peiser, agrees with Ayeni that power generation is vital to changing Africa for the better. “If you worry about Africans in poverty and people drowning in the Mediterranean, or the rise of militia and criminal networks, do something about it. And that must begin with electricity.” Peiser said it was “an outrage that, in 2017, some African states produce less power than a mid-size town in Europe or America. China has 1.4-billion people, roughly the same as Africa, but it generates 12 times more electricity. You only get those numbers from hydro plants on rivers and, for the most part, from coal and gas.” —Geoff Hill, Daily Maverick, 4 September 2017

 

Former prime minister Tony ­Abbott will give the annual lecture to one of the world’s leading climate change sceptic think tanks, the Global Warming Policy Foundation in London. The title of Mr Abbott’s ­address will be “Daring to doubt”. –Graham Lloyd, The Australian, 2 September 2017

 

There are many scientific agreements and disagreements in climate science. While there is general agreement about the modern global warming trend (since 1850), scientific controversies increase as climate research moves further back in time, and predictions move further into the future. Climate realism acknowledges the significant difference between verifiable and replicable knowledge, and hypothetical knowledge based on indirect evidence. The lecture will attempt to address which knowledge claims are more reliable and trustworthy, and which are less so. –Benny Peiser: Climate Realism – A Lukewarm Approach To Global Warming, University of Birmingham

 

1) Pacific Ocean Cools Rapidly, La Nina Threatens Early Return

John Kemp, Reuters, 5 September 2017

Forecasts for an El Nino this winter have given way to the prospect of more La Nina-like conditions as sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern Pacific cool rapidly.

Full story

 

2) South Africa Set For Biggest Maize Crop Harvest On Record

The South Africa, 1 September 2017

South Africa is set for its biggest maize crop harvest on record following improved weather conditions.

At least 16.4 million tonnes of maize can be expected from the maize belt this season.

The Crop Estimates Committee upped its forecast by 2.7 percent from July.

Almost 60 percent of the yield will be white maize, which is the regional staple used for human consumption.

Full story

 

Reminder: El Nino drought blamed on man-made global warming

3) After El Nino Drought, An Overabundance Of Maize In Southern Africa

This Is Africa, 27 June 2017

Charlie Mitchell

In 2015, a vicious El Niño weather pattern swept across southern Africa. When it intensified the following year, it caused severe droughts and threatened the food security of millions. But in 2017, that trend is set to reverse.

South Africa is expecting a 15.63m tonne maize harvest, the highest yield of the crop ever. That is double last year’s crop from Africa’s largest producer of the staple, guaranteeing a surplus of around 4m tonnes.

Full story

 

4) Chinese Scientists Identify Natural Driving Forces Of Climate Change

Geli Wang, Peicai Yang & Xiuji Zhou, Scientific Reports, April 2017

Abstract

The identification of causal effects is a fundamental problem in climate change research. Here, a new perspective on climate change causality is presented using the central England temperature (CET) dataset, the longest instrumental temperature record, and a combination of slow feature analysis and wavelet analysis. The driving forces of climate change were investigated and the results showed two independent degrees of freedom —a 3.36-year cycle and a 22.6-year cycle, which seem to be connected to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation cycle and the Hale sunspot cycle, respectively. Moreover, these driving forces were modulated in amplitude by signals with millennial timescales. 

Full paper

 

5) Blaming The Weather: The Moral Danger Of The Securitization Of Climate Change

Marloes van Loon, Leiden University

Marloes van Loon

MA Thesis International Relations

International Studies, Leiden University

Sheikh Ghazi Rashad Hrimis touches dried earth in the parched region of Raqqa province in eastern Syria, November 2010 (Stokes 2016).

Introduction

In the last few years, a connection between the Syrian Civil War, the refugee crisis and climate change appeared in media articles and was discussed in policy circles. The Dutch Broadcasting Foundation (NOS) published a short video explaining this connection, which mentioned climate change as a so-called ‘threat multiplier’ of existing instability. In all my years of study, never before did I come across the relationship between climate change and conflict. My interest was aroused and the idea for this thesis was born. Initially, my intension was to defend and strengthen the argument for a link between climate change and conflict. After all, it seemed to make sense that when people lose their livelihoods and migrate to other places, only to find themselves with other people in the same situation, tension rises and conflict might erupt. My own frame of reference played a part in this. I am deeply concerned about a changing climate, our human role in this and the possible future consequences. The fact that prominent people like former-president Barack Obama, former vice-president Al Gore and UN Messenger of Peace – with a focus on climate change – Leonardo DiCaprio spoke out about this, contributed to my view.

… A few months into my research, however, I realized that reality is not that simple. Moreover, such a simplistic statement could even make things worse.

Full thesis

 

6) Turning Africa’s Lights On Should Be A Homegrown Priority

Geoff Hill, Daily Maverick, 4 September 2017

GWPF director Benny Peiser:  While small solar units handed out by US and British aid groups are helpful, let’s not kid ourselves that this is the answer. We need every city and town in Africa on a central grid where the power doesn’t go off.

The numbers are scary. Africa, with 1.2-billion people and 20% of global land mass, makes just 3% of the world’s electricity.

Half of the continent’s power comes from Eskom in SA, while America burns more in a day than countries like Ghana or Tanzania make in a year.

It was one of the issues raised on 28 August at a conference on illegal migration to Europe. Leaders of Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Chad, Niger and Libya resolved to crack down on people-trafficking, and provide more development aid to source countries.

The push driving people north, they agreed, was not war but poverty and unemployment. And with no electricity, it was hard to change either.

… Peiser said while small solar units handed out by US and British aid groups were helpful, “let’s not kid ourselves that this is the answer. We need every city and town on a central grid where the power doesn’t go off”.

Full post

 

7) Tony Abbott To Deliver Annual Lecture To Leading Climate Policy Think Tank

The Australian, 2 September 2017

Graham Lloyd

Former prime minister Tony ­Abbott will give the annual lecture to one of the world’s leading climate change sceptic think tanks, the Global Warming Policy Foundation in London.

The title of Mr Abbott’s ­address will be “Daring to doubt”.

 

8) Benny Peiser: Climate Realism – A Lukewarm Approach To Global Warming

University of Birmingham

Birmingham Energy Institute Seminar — Wednesday 27 September 2017   17:00-18:00

University of Birmingham, Lecture Theatre G35, Chemical Engineering Building  (Y11 on campus map [PDF])

There are many scientific agreements and disagreements in climate science. While there is general agreement about the modern global warming trend (since 1850), scientific controversies increase as climate research moves further back in time, and predictions move further into the future. Climate realism acknowledges the significant difference between verifiable and replicable knowledge, and hypothetical knowledge based on indirect evidence.

The lecture will attempt to address which knowledge claims are more reliable and trustworthy, and which are less so. What do we really know about terrestrial climate change, and what are our main knowledge gaps? Why do we accept certain scientific claims about climate change but are doubtful about others?

Biography

Dr Benny Peiser is the Director of the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF), an all-party and non-party think tank and educational charity chaired by Lord Lawson. A 10km-wide asteroid, Minor Planet (7107) Peiser, was named in his honour by the International Astronomical Union.

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3 Thoughts on “GWPF Newsletter 06/09/17

  1. Maggy Wassilieff on September 8, 2017 at 4:22 pm said:

    Not sure where to post this:

    Australian climate blogger shows Australian Bureau of Meteorology has not been following the World Meteorological Organisation’s guidelines for temperature readings at its automatic stations.
    http://jennifermarohasy.com/2017/09/vindicated-bureau-not-following-wmo-guidelines/

  2. Maggy Wassilieff on September 9, 2017 at 7:31 am said:

    Further info/background on the failures of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
    http://joannenova.com.au/2017/09/bom-review-finds-skeptics-were-right-but-say-trust-us-it-doesnt-matter/#comments

  3. Richard Treadgold on September 10, 2017 at 10:41 am said:

    Thanks, Maggy. Sounds like they’ve found other places the records are inaccurate and they’re talking about setting up their own AWS’s and how best to do it. I see on Weather Watch there must be hundreds of free-lance temperature readings being recorded around New Zealand. It’d probably put shivers up NIWA’s collective spine at the thought of the adjustments required later, but I wonder if it’s worth thinking about bringing those Weather Watch instruments under some kind of voluntary collective management?

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