Open thread

open thread

Again, my apologies for non-attendance. Please use this for your interesting forays into politics, difficulties of the Christchurch rebuild and global economics. Otherwise the follow-the-thread police could slap fines on your host or (equally painful) throw the book at him.

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AndyRichard TreadgoldMike JowseyRichard C (NZ) Recent comment authors
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Andy
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Andy

Ah, enough rope to hang ourselves..
Thanks Sir, most kindly

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Open thread – woo hoo!

PLEASE READ THIS – TOO LONG TO COPY

‘Welcome Comrades: 21st Century Eco-Socialism Conference at UCSB’

By Michael Greer (@thetalentscout), Posted on October 12, 2015 by Steve Milloy

http://junkscience.com/2015/10/12/welcome-comrades-21st-century-eco-socialism-conference-at-ucsb/

“System Change, not Climate Change”

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Re Eco-Socialism vs next credit crunch. From the previous thread and abbreviated: The Eco-socialists are about to get what they want but they really have no idea what they will be really getting. They will NOT be getting Eco-socialist utopia. Socialist re-distribution thrives on other people’s money (gushing flows of it), but that paradigm is failing fast. The debased financial fuel that once drove the productive sector (think industry, manufacturing, exporting, agri/horti culture etc) that provides the wealth for Socialists to redistribute no longer creates growth (massive recession looming now instead). These are the sectors that Eco-socialists want to close down but what is left? Public sector jobs but what and who will pay for that? Debt Rattle October 11 2015 http://www.theautomaticearth.com/2015/10/debt-rattle-october-11-2015/ First article from Debt Rattle link: ‘The world economic order is collapsing and this time there seems no way out’ Will Hutton, Saturday 10 October 2015 Europe has seen nothing like this for 70 years – the visible expression of a world where order is collapsing. The millions of refugees fleeing from ceaseless Middle Eastern war and barbarism are voting with their feet, despairing of their futures. The catalyst for their… Read more »

Andy
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Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Richard T, what has been your observations re the job losses at Glenbrook steel mill? ‘Waiuku community react to job losses at NZ Steel’s Glenbrook mill’ JOHN BOYNTON, NATALIE POLLEY, October 6 2015 http://www.stuff.co.nz/waikato-times/business/72733211/waiuku-community-react-to-job-losses-at-nz-steels-glenbrook-mill I characterized this as a “Green dream come true” in the previous thread. However, if you extrapolate all these cutbacks and closures around the world because commodity prices have crashed then the effect on communities is massive, or will be when the process escalates. NZ steel is laying off 100, Solid Energy proposes to close the Huntly East mine, with the loss of over 60 jobs: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/72812848/solid-energy-proposes-the-closure-of-huntly-east-mine I worked on Huntly East mine surface structures as a drafty donkey’s years ago and have done a lot of other work in Huntly since so I know a bit about the place and people but nothing about Waiuku. Mining and construction is first to feel the brunt (Caterpillar is laying off 10,000) but it wont end there. When credit dries up I fear for the BOP, it is covered in kiwifruit vines on trellises and employs an extra 20,000+ during harvest (and much imported overseas labour now too, especially for night… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

>”if you extrapolate all these cutbacks and closures around the world…..” That’s the unwinding of this process (think Detroit): ‘Analyzing the Benefits and Costs of Economic development projects’ [University of North Carolina] How Will a Development Project Affect the Local Economy? The first question in assessing whether a development project is worthy of some amount of public investment is, What economic benefits will the project create for the community? These benefits are most often measured in terms of employment, income, and output (business revenues or sales). In 2006 Google announced it would build a $600 million data center in Lenoir (Caldwell County), N.C. This project provides a useful illustration for how to assess and interpret the estimated economic effects of a new business location. Google is expected to employ 210 workers at the facility itself. While these 210 jobs will be directly supported by the day-to-day operations of the new facility, the North Carolina Department of Commerce estimates that Google will create a total of 582 jobs statewide.1 If Google is directly supporting only 210 workers, how can the total employment expected to come from the new facility be nearly 600? Economic Impact… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

EastPack to invest $15m in Bay [kiwifruit] plants – Sep 23, 2014

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/rotorua-daily-post/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503438&objectid=11329768

They’ve done that and there’s another $8 – 10m since then I think. All Class I fruit is exported and totally dependent on Zespri marketing and financing of shipments. Only Class II & III is sold domestically and to Australia and Pacific Is i.e. trade risk is massive.

EastPack is the largest post-harvest operator and a grower owned coop.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Waiting for Collapse: USA Debt Bombs Bursting” by William Edstrom, September 23, 2015 It’s been so easy the past 15 years for local governments in the USA, state governments, government authorities, corporations, banks, hedge funds and the US Federal government to simply say how many millions, billions or trillions of dollars they wanted, pay some high priced call accountants to fill out some paperwork with fine print and voila, millions, billions and trillions of dollars in borrowed money simply appeared. It has been that easy! Now, the government in the USA owes $46 trillion, US corporations owe $15 trillion, US individuals owe $13 trillion plus there are $315 trillion in outstanding Wall Street derivatives. (Few Americans know what a derivative is, but we as a nation are on the hook for up to $315 trillion in additional debt because of these derivatives.) These debt figures continue to escalate with each passing month. Detroit and Puerto Rico have only just begun the debt bombs bursting in the USA, the USA’s slow motion economic collapse. Who’s next? I’m going to tell you about some US local and state governments that have too much debt and… Read more »

Andy
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Andy

Climate change raises cat threat

Vulnerable native species may face further risk as climate change makes more of our country hospitable to stray cats, a researcher says.

In a new study in the journal Applied Geography, Unitec natural sciences lecturer Dr Glenn Aguilar used species distribution modelling to describe areas highly favourable to stray cats, and then investigated what effects a warmer climate would have.

Under one grim 2070 model, climate change could widen the range of areas suitable for feral cats, bringing them closer to conservation hotspots in new places like the central North Island, and the top and central areas of the South Island

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11527486

What is a “grim model”?

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

>What is a “grim model”?

A fairy tale, as compiled by the Brothers Grimm.

Cats would be a new one I think, the closest I know of involved either a frog or a goose.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)
Andy
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Andy

Isn’t it great that you can have a career supported by Grimm Models (sic) that are literally just stories

Beats actual work, I guess

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Gold Is Not Money = October 7, 2015 http://tsi-blog.com/2015/10/gold-is-not-money/ Gold Is Not Money, Part 2 By: Steve Saville | Mon, Oct 12, 2015 I opened a blog post on 7th October with the statement that gold was money in the distant past and might again be money in the future, but isn’t money in any developed economy today. I then explained this statement. The post stirred up a veritable hornet’s nest, in that over the ensuing 24 hours my inbox was inundated with dozens of messages arguing that I was wrong and a couple of messages thanking me for pointing out the obvious (that gold is not money today). The negative responses were mostly polite*, but in many cases went off on a tangent. Rather than trying to respond individually, this post is my attempt to rebut or otherwise address some of the comments provoked by the earlier post on the same topic. In general, the responders to my earlier “Gold Is Not Money” post made the same old mistakes of arguing that gold is an excellent long-term store of value, which is true but has nothing to do with whether gold is… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

U.K. Telegraph: Judges Planning to Prohibit ‘Climate Skepticism’ by Gene Koprowski, October 13, 2015 A report in the U.K. daily The Telegraph indicates that an international panel of judges is planning to prohibit talk of “climate skepticism.” The article by Christopher Booker said the legal change was endorsed by Prince Charles of the U.K., and would revolutionize the concept of free speech once and for all. “Including senior judges and lawyers from across the world, the three-day conference on ‘Climate Change and the Law’ was staged in London’s Supreme Court. It was funded, inter alia, by the Supreme Court itself, the UK government and the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP),” Booker reported. “As one of the two UN sponsors of its Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, UNEP has been one of the main drivers of alarm over global warming for 40 years. The organiser and chairman of the conference was the Supreme Court judge Lord Carnwath, a fervent believer in man-made climate change, who has worked with the Prince of Wales for more than 20 years, and with UNEP since 2002.” The keynote speech for the event was given by Philippe Sands, a… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Armed EPA Agents? The Truth Is Way Out There Written by Gene J. Koprowski, American Spectator on 13 October 2015. According to a report released last week by a watchdog group called Open the Books, the EPA has spent millions of dollars recently on guns, ammo, body armor, camouflage equipment, and even night-vision goggles to arm its agents in the war on polluters. The Illinois-based investigative group examined thousands of checks totaling more than $93 billion from 2000 to 2014 by the EPA, and its auditors indicate that about $75 million is authorized each year for “criminal enforcement” of America’s clean air and water laws. This includes cash for a cadre of 200 “special agents” that engage in SWAT-style ops. “We were shocked ourselves to find these kinds of pervasive expenditures at an agency that is supposed to be involved in clean air and clean water,” said Open the Books’ founder, Adam Andrzejewski, a former candidate for governor of Illinois. “Some of these weapons are for full-scale military operations.” Some of these military operations have been reported in the media. Two years ago, the EPA was involved in an armed raid at a… Read more »

Andy
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Andy

The EPA Swat team reminds me of this Audi ad shown at a Super Bowl
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVPyHrPZbVM

The irony is that it is a German diesel car they are advertising,

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Heh, “Green Car of the Year” Audi A3 TDi – Schadenfreude is fun (how appropriate is that?).

“hoist on their own petard” in youtube (printable) comments now that it has come back to bite them.

Good one Andy, a greenwash disaster.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Green Car of the Year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Car_of_the_Year

I own a green car. I saw a white one advertised but by the time I got there it had been sold. So I bought bought the other green one that was still on the lot.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

And no, my green car is not red on the inside.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Quote of the week:

“When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser.” ― Socrates

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/10/13/quotes-of-the-week-hate-as-a-weapon-in-the-climate-wars-rico-madness-losers-and-all-that/

Andy
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Andy

From that article

“Georgia Tech’s Judith Curry – a prominent climate denier – attacking both me and the scientists.”

and

” Sadly, Dr. Soon is just a small cog in a massive climate-denial machine”

Fruitloops …

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

CLIMATE CHANGE and THE RULE OF LAW: ADJUDICATING THE FUTURE IN INTERNATIONAL LAW Some notes on a public lecture given in the United Kingdom Supreme Court on 17 September 2015 by Philippe Sands QC, Professor of Law, University College London. Robin Guenier, October 2015 CONCLUSION Professor Sands believes that climate change is “one of the greatest and most vital challenges of our age” and asserts that in view of its “real and imminent challenges … the international courts shall not be silent”. These are honourable sentiments. However, he also believes the way for the courts to make a contribution – the “single most important thing [they] could do” – would be “to settle the scientific dispute”. And to do so by “finally scotching claims” that he thinks are not based on established fact. But, for the courts to purport to settle a legitimate scientific disagreement, would strike at the essence of the Scientific Method – the basis of scientific practice for over 150 years. It would risk bringing international law into disrepute. Professor Sands may consider that a risk worth taking. However he might perhaps note that it’s not disputes about science that… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Robin Guenier, October 12, 2015 at 3:46 pm

Paul: you say – “No response yet from the learned professor himself.” Not quite true:

I sent my notes to Professor Sands, inviting him to comment – copied to Professor Liz Fisher, Professor of Environmental Law at Oxford and one of the organisers of the symposium. Both have replied.

Here’s his: “Thank you very much indeed for getting in touch. I am a strong believer in competition amongst ideas, and welcome yours in that spirit. Best PS”

And her’s: “Dear Robin Thank you for these. I am glad you found the lecture stimulating. Yours Liz”

They don’t seem over-interested in debate.

https://ipccreport.wordpress.com/2015/10/09/robin-guenier-on-philippe-sands/#comment-2445

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Robin Guenier on Philippe Sands 4. It would seem from the above that disputes about the science are at best only marginal to any consideration of why more is not being done to curtail emissions. Nonetheless Professor Sands believes that “the single most important thing [the Court] could do is to settle the scientific dispute” (Page 14 of his text). That seems to me to be an extraordinary assertion: not just because of the relatively marginal importance of scientific disputes in this context – but in particular because of his view that a court of law should be the final arbiter of an unresolved and purely scientific question. Yet he goes further: having noted that some “scientifically qualified, knowledgeable” people, despite “a broad emerging consensus”, are unconvinced that mankind’s actions were the main cause of recent atmospheric warming, he says – and, interestingly, this is not in his text – “the courts could play a role in finally scotching those claims”. He added that a finding of fact on such a matter “would be significant and authoritative”. A few observations: (a) Of the possible “first tier” of “central factual issues” that Professor Sands… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

The judge [Lord Carnwath], the presidential hopeful and some strange conflicts of interest

Oct 7, 2015 by Bishop Hill

Donna Laframboise has been doing some interesting research [hotlink] on the Climate and Law conference recently held by the UK’s Supreme Court. It seems that as well as Philippe Sands, several other judges used the occasion to advance their environmentalist views.

Prominent among them was Lord Carnwath,

Carnwath is an interesting chap >>>>>>

http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2015/10/7/the-judge-the-presidential-hopeful-and-some-strange-conflict.html

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)
Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

‘France’s top weatherman sparks storm over book questioning climate change’ Philippe Verdier, weather chief at France Télévisions, the country’s state broadcaster, reportedly sent on “forced holiday” for releasing book accusing top climatologists of “taking the world hostage” By Henry Samuel, Paris, 14 Oct 2015 Every night, France’s chief weatherman has told the nation how much wind, sun or rain they can expect the following day. Now Philippe Verdier, a household name for his nightly forecasts on France 2, has been taken off air after a more controversial announcement – criticising the world’s top climate change experts. Mr Verdier claims in the book Climat Investigation (Climate Investigation) that leading climatologists and political leaders have “taken the world hostage” with misleading data. In a promotional video, Mr Verdier said: “Every night I address five million French people to talk to you about the wind, the clouds and the sun. And yet there is something important, very important that I haven’t been able to tell you, because it’s neither the time nor the place to do so.” He added: “We are hostage to a planetary scandal over climate change – a war machine whose aim is… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

‘Clouding the debate over climate change ‘ The new U.N. chairman knows economics, not science By Tom Harris – – Tuesday, October 13, 2015 Last week, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) held a news conference in Dubrovnik, Croatia, to introduce South Korean bureaucrat Hoesung Lee as its new chairman. Mr. Lee’s remarks to the press demonstrated that he is sadly out of touch with the actual status of today’s climate science. This is not surprising. Although Mr. Lee said, “The hard science of climate change will remain the foundation of the IPCC’s work,” he has practically no hard science training or experience. Instead, he has a doctorate in economics and a career as an economist, IPCC insider and environment professor. Yet, when Jill Peters, weather broadcaster for Belgium Television, referred to Mr. Lee as a “climate scientist” in her question at the news conference, he did not correct the mistake. Bob Carter, former head of the School of Earth Sciences at James Cook University in Australia, commented: “The idea that an economist can make a suitable chair for an IPCC-type organization is misguided. The basic issue is a scientific… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

‘A Supreme Court justice and the scary plan to outlaw climate change’ An imaginary problem could soon have real consequences in international law James Delingpole, 10 October 2015 How do you make an imaginary problem so painfully real that everyone suffers? It’s an odd question to ask, you might think, but it’s one that has been exercising some of the brightest minds in the legal firmament, led by no less a figure than Lord Justice Carnwath of the Supreme Court. Last month, at an event whose sinister significance might have passed unnoticed had it not been for the digging of Canadian investigative blogger Donna Laframboise, Carnwath contrived to nudge the world a step closer towards enacting potentially the most intrusive, economically damaging and vexatious legislation in history: an effective global ban on so-called ‘climate change’. The setting was a rather dull-sounding symposium Carnwath organised at King’s College London called ‘Adjudicating the Future: Climate Change and the Rule of Law’. We don’t know the names of the ‘leading judges, lawyers and legal academics’ from 11 nations who attended because the organisers won’t disclose them. What we do know, though, is that you and I… Read more »

Andy
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Andy
Mike Jowsey
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Hope the move is going well RT. Moving’s a beeeatch. Take care of your back and your fluids. And your lovely wife.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Trivia file.

Now,
Deutsche Bank, a bank with assets worth more than Italy’s GDP, has declared the need to adjust the results for the third quarter of 2015 to reflect losses of almost €6 billion. Details of the reasons for these losses are not yet available but it is well known that the bank has an anomalous concentration of derivatives in its portfolio: $75 thousand billion (about €65 thousand billion!), equivalent to 20 times Germany’s GDP.

And then.
In 2007, China banned Buddhist monks from reincarnating without government permission. According to State Religious Affairs Bureau Order N0. 5, applications must be filed by Buddhist temples before they can recognize individuals as reincarnated tulkus. This law deemed to be “an important move to institutionalize management of reincarnation.”

Andy
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Andy

More from the trenches:

Group vows to continue fight against coastal hazard LIM listings

http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/73138415/group-vows-to-continue-fight-against-coastal-hazard-lim-listings

Andy
Guest
Andy

Not about climate

“The Death of Europe”
by Daniel Greenfield

http://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/260511/death-europe-daniel-greenfield

Andy
Guest
Andy

“Secretary of State John Kerry thinks Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and anyone else who doubts the existence of man-made global warming have disqualified themselves from ever holding public office”

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2015/10/20/sec-kerry-says-trump-disqualified-from-office-because-he-denies-global-warming/#ixzz3pGeWH81W

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

LIM listings.

“Burwood-Pegasus councillor David East was comfortable with the revised wording on the LIM reports, but believed the council ultimately needed to put the Tonkin & Taylor report to one side and commission a fresh study into the coastal hazards facing the city.”

So the T&T report was not fit for purpose. Does the CCC get a refund?

Andy
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Andy

The T&T issue is work in progress, mostly meetings I am not privy to.

I will share any public info as I get it though

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

>”“The Death of Europe” Talked to a young male Danish backpacker at work today. Among a few other things I asked him about Danish unemployment, he said welfare was an easy option and he seemed to think the govt had it all in hand. Now tonight I read in that article: “27% of Moroccans and 21% of Turks in the Netherlands are unemployed. It’s 27% in Denmark for Iraqis. And even when employed, their average income is well below the European average. Critics pointed out in the past that a multicultural America can’t afford the welfare states that European countries have. Now that those same countries are turning multicultural, they can’t afford them either.” I think my Danish workmate (an electrician) may be in for a shock when he gets back (he seemed oblivious to the above). Even given Denmark’s highly educated workforce (they are paid to study by govt) and their impressive production e.g. satellite electronics for NASA and a fully automated sawmill machine installed in Katikati just up the road from here (Denmark has no forestry), also all the Maersk ships in and out of MtM, the Danish culture and welfare… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

‘When You Need Courts to Settle Science, Then Science Isn’t On Your Side ‘

October 16, 2015 Daniel Greenfield, Frontpage Mag (“Inside every liberal is a totalitarian screaming to get out”)

Courts can use scientific evidence to make a decision in a case, but courts don’t define scientific facts. A judicial conference which calls on courts to settle a scientific debate is troubling.

When you’re calling on courts to settle “scientific disputes”, you’re not engaged in science, but in totalitarian control of science. When you want to censor critics using the power of government, you’re just another dictatorship.

Environmentalism has mostly been a tool of state power. The Global Warming craze has made a lot of well connected people very rich, but also offers the opportunity to exploit an imaginary crisis for a level of control over people’s lives without precedent in human history.

This isn’t about science. It’s about money, ideology and power.

http://www.frontpagemag.com/point/260477/when-you-need-courts-settle-science-then-science-daniel-greenfield#.ViEmso6Im9E.twitter

Andy
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Andy

Australia’s breakdown king David Pocock more concerned with climate change than facing All Blacks
http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/australias-breakdown-king-david-pocock-6716559

Andy
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Andy

From the “it’s worse than we thought” department

Climate change to melt away ski seasons

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/288705/climate-change-to-melt-away-ski-seasons

OMG, children just won’t know what snow is. It will be a rare and exciting event.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Heavy snowfall in California

http://iceagenow.info/2015/11/heavy-snowfall-in-california/

But don;t worry, climate change will melt it away.

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