No warming, no worries, no windmills

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The Freedom Clock shows nearly 20 years without global warming

Christopher Monckton thoughtfully keeps us acquainted with some essential moving targets on the climate change range. One monthly chore he undertakes is to update the RSS global mean temperature at Watts Up With That and (the neat part) find out whether the pause has got longer. It usually has. This is from his latest post a week or so back.

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The Freedom Clock gets its data from the RSS satellite temperature trend, which shows neither warming nor cooling for ages and ages.

Here’s his delicious introductory paragraph.

To the growing embarrassment of the world-government wannabes who are preparing to meet in Paris next month to inflict upon the world a Solomon Binding treaty that will, in all but name, create an all-powerful global tyranny-by-clerk for the first time, the central pretext for the entire venture – global warming – continues to be conspicuous by its prolonged absence.

Chris Monckton explains that, though fully a third of Man’s influence on climate since the Industrial Revolution has been released into the atmosphere since February 1997 (224 months ago), in that time the globe has declined to warm.

That’s now 18 years 8 months without warming. Which is nearly 20 years of no excuse for constant international junkets for the chattering classes to babble on about stopping global warming with money we gave them to arrest hunger and improve health.

He says “the hiatus period of 18 years 8 months is the farthest back one can go in the RSS satellite temperature record and still show a sub-zero trend. The start date is not cherry-picked: it is calculated, starting from the present.”

As always, a note of caution. Merely because there has been little or no warming in recent decades, one may not draw the conclusion that warming has ended forever. The trend lines measure what has occurred: they do not predict what will occur.

The Pause – politically useful though it may be to all who wish that the “official” scientific community would remember its duty of skepticism – is far less important than the growing discrepancy between the predictions of the general-circulation models and observed reality.

Since there’s no significant warming, there are no worries about it and we needn’t build legions of windmills to run our steel mills and aluminium smelters because we’ve closed all the oil wells.

Our incompetent climate activists will not wake up to this simple truth until they entertain a desire to wake up.

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Richard C (NZ)AndyRichard TreadgoldSimon Recent comment authors
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Simon
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Simon

According to GISTemp, the number of months “without global warming” is actually two.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

>”According to GISTemp, the number of months “without global warming” is actually two.” Can’t read a graph Simon? Every month of the 1996 year, the second year in the series, all 12 months, was “without global warming” i.e. cooler than every month in 1995. February 1997 was cooler than February 1996, that is, “without global warming”. 6 of the 1997 months were cooler than the 1995 equivalents. February 1997 was cooler than February 1996. All of which was “without global warming”. And so on. But so what? How many GISTEMP months exhibit CO2-forced warming Simon i.e. conform to the CO2-forced models after 1955 say? Gavin Schmidt was Tweeting “Forcing-adjusted” models vs GISTEMP back in July in a desperate attempt to get CMIP5 to mimic observations. https://twitter.com/climateofgavin/status/622921126847623169 Apparently, when the models are adjusted down there’s a reasonable match with GISTEMP. Or in other words, you can make it up as you go along but the catastrophe seems to be diminishing rapidly. At this rate of adjustment the 2 C limit will never be reached. I note that every GISTEMP month from 1998/99 onwards (201 months) was “without [CO2-forced] global warming” as per the non-adjusted… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

>”The Pause – ……. – is far less important than the growing discrepancy between the predictions of the general-circulation models and observed reality.”

And again, as per the previous thread, the most important discrepancy of all is between the observed earth’s energy balance at TOA (the IPCC’s climate change criteria) and the theoretical anthropogenic forcing which is having no effect on it whatsoever.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

>”How many GISTEMP months exhibit CO2-forced warming Simon i.e. conform to the CO2-forced models after 1955 say?”

1955 and 2015 are MDV neutral i.e. the MDV-neutral CO2-forced model mean, if it was valid, MUST pass through 2015 observations from BELOW. Even after Gavin Schmidt’s “Forcing-adjustment” that is still an impossibility, the CO2 forcing is superfluous.

superfluous (adjective):

Unnecessary, especially through being more than enough.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”the MDV-neutral CO2-forced model mean, if it was valid, MUST pass through 2015 observations from BELOW”

Gavin Schmidt’s update is obviously not up to date. The following is up to 2014:

CMIP5 model mean vs HadCRUT4
http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/90-CMIP5-models-vs-observations-with-pause-explanation.png

No CO2-forced global warming since 1998 and no possibility of the MDV-neutral model mean passing through 2015 observations from below.

Or, how the theory of man-made climate change crashed and burned.

Andy
Guest
Andy

Canada will have plenty more windmills, not to mention Islamic Supremacists and other undesirables, now that the man child Trudeau has been elected as PM

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Warmist Prof. Alice Bows-Larkin calls for ‘planned recessions’ to fight ‘global warming’: ‘Economic growth needs to be exchanged’ for ‘planned austerity’ – ‘Whole system change’

Read more: http://www.climatedepot.com/2015/10/19/warmist-prof-alice-bows-larkin-calls-for-planned-recessions-to-fight-global-warming-economic-growth-needs-to-be-exchanged-for-planned-austerity-whole-system-change/#ixzz3p5ZU86zO

Well, she is about to get an unplanned recession that will make 2008 look ordinary. And US universities are certainly not immune.

A case of being careful what you wish for.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”Well, she is about to get an unplanned recession that will make 2008 look ordinary”

The last 30 years of global economic history are about to go out the window
By Matt Phillips October 15, 2015
http://qz.com/519253/china-just-upended-rules-that-governed-the-global-economy-for-the-last-30-years/

Andy
Guest
Andy

The mass migration is already putting huge pressures on countries like Sweden and Germany who are inviting in millions of unskilled people who will likely form a mostly inter-generational welfare dependent population.

This is going to turn nasty rather soon, I suspect. Sweden is already on the brink

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

On the pedestal of the Statue of Liberty:

“The New Colossus” by Emma Lazarus, 1883

“Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,
With conquering limbs astride from land to land;
Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand
A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame
Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name,
Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand
Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command
The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.
“Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!” cries she
With silent lips. “Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!”

# # #

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

The ‘Environment Aotearoa’ report

“surging carbon dioxide levels pose [a threat] to New Zealand’s environment, [the] official report finds.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/73222637/climate-change-and-dairy-expansion-singled-out-in-environment-aotearoa-report

Baloney. No threat whatsoever.

On the contrary, beneficial for forestry, horticulture, agriculture, native bush, i.e. the environment. And, therefore, us.

No worries.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

‘Jupiter emits 67% more radiation than it receives from the Sun -only explanation is the gravito-thermal greenhouse effect, not greenhouse gases’

Warmists claim gravity cannot be the cause of any so-called “greenhouse effect” (or the “gravito-thermal greenhouse effect”) on Earth, Jupiter, nor any other planet, yet overwhelming observational evidence for every planet in our solar system (with adequate observational data – 8 planets at this point) clearly demonstrates that surface and atmospheric temperatures are a sole function of gravity/mass/pressure and independent of greenhouse gas concentrations.

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2015/10/jupiter-emits-67-more-radiation-than-it.html

# # #

The IPCC claims the earth’s radiation imbalance “controls” surface temperature, and, in fact, it is their sole climate change criteria.

Their theory that CO2 is an agent of climate change is falsified by their own criteria, and temperature is totally independent of that criteria anyway.

Simon
Guest
Simon

It’s difficult to claim that there has been no recent global warming when September 2015 was the warmest month in recorded history:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3162

Andy
Guest
Andy

It’s funny how the “warmest month in recorded history” actually isn’t, as stated in the article. It is the largest departure from an average for a particular month in recorded history

So thumbs up for that at least, but the headline is what matters, and hashtags will ensue in the Twittersphere.

By the way, there are some really big “climate marches” coming up in all the big centres. Hope y’all gonna be there, y’all.

Andy
Guest
Andy

September isn’t the warmest month in the NH. So departure from the September mean isn’t the warmest month in recorded history. It is the largest departure from the mean for a particular month.

I could have the warmest December in recorded history, this doesn’t make it the warmest month in recorded history

Andy
Guest
Andy

Anything for the cause.

The article is somewhat more opaque

(Note that since July and August are typically the warmest months globally in absolute terms, September was not Earth’s warmest month in that regard.) NASA rated September 2015 slightly cooler, as the 2nd warmest September on record, falling below September 2014’s mark. September 2015’s warmth makes the year-to-date period (January – September) the warmest such period on record, according to both NOAA and NASA. September 2015 was the fifth consecutive month a monthly high temperature record has been set in NOAA’s database, and the seventh month of the nine months so far in 2015.

Andy
Guest
Andy

From the article

For years, climate change sceptics relied on a spike in global temperatures that occurred during the monster 1997-98 El Nino

This is a falsehood, also known as a “lie”.
Fairly typical of the MSM these days

Andy
Guest
Andy

The warmists and the idiots at SMH are claiming that a single data point will invalidate “the pause” and at the same time claim that 15-18 years of no warming is not long enough to invalidate the long term trend of warming.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”It’s difficult to claim that there has been no recent global warming” Non issue. Maybe there is, maybe there isn’t, Satellites don’t say so, Radiosondes similar, HadCRUT4 not so much either. But there maybe a little warming, hard to say, but if there was it is negligible. Real issue is: there has certainly NOT been any recent CO2-FORCED warming. The IPCC concedes this (to a degree, it will be a while before they throw in the towel): Box 9.2 | Climate Models and the Hiatus in Global Mean Surface Warming of the Past 15 Years ……an analysis of the full suite of CMIP5 historical simulations (augmented for the period 2006–2012 by RCP4.5 simulations, Section 9.3.2) reveals that 111 out of 114 realizations show a GMST trend over 1998–2012 that is higher than the entire HadCRUT4 trend ensemble (Box 9.2 Figure 1a; CMIP5 ensemble mean trend is 0.21ºC per decade). This difference between simulated and observed trends could be caused by some combination of (a) internal climate variability, (b) missing or incorrect radiative forcing and (c) model response error. https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter09_FINAL.pdf It should be perfectly obvious to everyone by now that: A) The IPCC have… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

‘The Only Global Warming Chart You Need from Now On’

Written by Steve Hayward, PowerLine on 21 October 2015.

http://www.climatechangedispatch.com/the-only-global-warming-chart-you-need-from-now-on.html

“What if you display the [global average temperature] data with the axis starting not just from zero, but from the lower bound of the actual experienced temperature range of the earth? I had never thought of this until an acquaintance sent it along today:

http://www.climatechangedispatch.com/images/pics8/Global-2-copy.jpg

A little hard to get worked up about this, isn’t it? In fact you can barely spot the warming. No wonder you need a college education to believe in the alarmist version of climate change. No wonder the data ……. is never displayed this way in any of the official climate reports.

If this chart were published on the front page of newspapers the climate change crusaders would be out of business instantly.”

Simon
Guest
Simon

Maybe you should start the y-axis at zero degrees Kelvin 🙂
And finish the y-axis at 1000 degrees Kelvin.
Then you won’t break the graph when the climate warms.

Andy
Guest
Andy

when the climate warms

Is this a future, rather than current event?

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”Maybe you should start the y-axis at zero degrees Kelvin”

Well yes. But the temperature range experienced by humans on earth is more appropriate.

Isn’t it?

Andy
Guest
Andy

Even this charming person S Lovejoy uses the term “pause” when discussing the lack of warming since 1998 but then spends a lot of time explaining why “denialist fantasies” are wrong.

https://eos.org/opinions/climate-closure

This piece is discussed by “denialist” Judith Curry here

http://judithcurry.com/2015/10/23/climate-closure/

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Lovejoy’s approach is at least starting to get to the IPCC’s deficiencies e.g. neglect of MDV (although they now concede this, sort of, as upthread). But straight off there’s a number of problems I see without too much thought: 1) The IPCC’s climate change criteria is TOA energy imbalance – not temperature i.e he’s analyzing incorrect metrics and assuming incorrect relationships. He should be applying radiative CO2 forcingf to the TOA radiative energy imbalance i.e. apples-to-apples. To be fair, so should the IPCC. 2) Lovejoy’s MDV-neutral spline in (a) does not conform to the CO2-forced climate model mean i.e. Lovejoy is not applying radiative forcing as it should be. When it is, the models run too hot, hotter than the MDV-neutral spline. But kudos to Lovejoy for identifying the MDV-neutral spline (but see 3). 3) Lovejoy uses ONLY GISTEMP and then truncates the data to 2012. If he had included up-to date-data the slope of the spline would be a little flatter i.e. approaching the MDV-neutral datapoint of 2015. His spline is similar to Foster &Ramhstorf’s, both are premature. Neither Lovejoy or F&R however, use appropriate signal analysis to identify the correct MDV-neutral… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Judith Curry expands on my point 3) which I couldn’t be bothered going into because it just jumps out at you (“pretty easy, actually” as JC puts it):

First point: The IPCC attributes the warming since 1950 as due to human greenhouse gas emissions. Lovejoy discusses the warming since 1880. About 40% of the warming since 1880 occurred prior to 1950, and is not attributed to human greenhouse gas emissions. Further, according to the IPCC paleo analysis, the globe has been warming for the past 400 years, which also cannot be attributed to human greenhouse gas emissions. The statistics of Lovejoy’s analysis are entirely different if you are looking at a warming period of 65 years rather than 125 years.

No “climate closure” yet Shaun, not by a long shot.

Andy
Guest
Andy

The post 1950 attribution is fairly clear in the IPCC Detection and Attribution chapter. Raising this point to Gareth Morgan got me banned from his FB page and blog

Quoting the IPCC makes you a “denialist fantasist” I guess

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”The post 1950 attribution” >”the underlying secular trend (ST) in GMST. It is NOT linear and recently a negative inflexion is becoming evident (contrary to CO2)” The latter is a leading indicator. I’ve been watching a parallel situation developing in global debt deleveraging, everyone is watching lagging indicators instead of leading: ‘Everything’s Deflating And Nobody Seems To Notice’ – October 22, 2015, Raúl Ilargi Meije Whenever we at the Automatic Earth explain, as we must have done at least a hundred times in our existence, that, and why, we refuse to define inflation and deflation as rising or falling prices (only), we always get a lot of comments and reactions implying that people either don’t understand why, or they think it’s silly to use a definition that nobody else seems to use. -More or less- recent events, though, show us once more why we’re right to insist on inflation being defined in terms of the interaction of money-plus-credit supply with money velocity (aka spending). We’re right because the price rises/falls we see today are but a delayed, lagging, consequence of what deflation truly is, they are not deflation itself. Deflation itself has long… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

‘September 2015: Biggest Reported Anomaly Says NOAA’ Global surface temperatures in September were 0.9oC above the long term average, according to data from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the US. This is the warmest September recorded by NOAA and the largest single variance, or anomaly, to the long term average temperature over the twentieth century, ever recorded for any month in NOAA’s archive which stretches back to January 1880. Furthermore, five other months in 2015 have ranked among the top ten largest anomalies on record putting 2015 on rack to be the warmest year ever recorded by NOAA (see graph at top on right). US space agency NASA has reported September 2015 as the second warmest September in its records, behind last year. Two independent analyses of satellite measurements of the temperature of the atmosphere, by US firm Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) and the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH), both suggest that September 2015 was only the fifth warmest September since 1979, when satellite monitoring began. This variance between the surface temperature data reported by NOAA and the atmospheric data collected by satellite is likely to fuel some debate… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Congressional skeptic on global warming demands records from U.S. climate scientists By Joby Warrick October 23 The head of a congressional committee on science has issued subpoenas to the Obama administration over a recent scientific study refuting claims that global warming had “paused” or slowed over the last decade. Rep. Lamar Smith (R-Tex.), chairman of the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology and a prominent congressional skeptic on climate change, issued the subpoenas two weeks ago demanding e-mails and records from U.S. scientists who participated in the study, which undercut a popular argument used by critics who reject the scientific consensus that man-made pollution is behind the planet’s recent warming. Smith’s document request to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ordered the agency to turn over scientific data as well as internal “communications between or among employees” involved in the study, according to a letter Friday by the House committee’s ranking Democrat, Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (Tex.). “This scandal-ridden administration’s lack of openness is the real problem,” Smith said in a statement released by his office. “Congress cannot do its job when agencies openly defy Congress and refuse to turn over information.… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Karl et al:

“Our new analysis now shows the trend over the period 1950-1999, a time widely agreed as having significant anthropogenic global warming, is 0.113 [degrees Celsius per decade], which is virtually indistinguishable with the trend over the period 2000-2014” of 0.116 degrees per decade, according to the study.

# # #

If it was CO2-forced, the 2000-2014 trend should be up around 0.33 C/decade.

In other words, they’ve only manufactured one third of the warming they need to.

Still a work in progress I’m guessing.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”If it was CO2-forced, the 2000-2014 trend should be up around 0.33 C/decade.”

That is out to 2050. Tisdale has the model mean 0.28 C/decade 2000 – 2030 upthread (RCP6.5).

So Karl et al need to manufacture another 0.164 C/decade (0.28 – 0.116 = 0.164).

Tall order but I’m sure they’re up for it.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Lamar Smith must have read the Tisdale/Watts post:

Some might think that NOAA under the direction of Tom Karl designed their ship-buoy bias adjustments with the sole intent of minimizing the impacts of natural slowdown in surface warming. (Those would be some interesting emails and meeting minutes to read.)

And did Tisdale have Smith’s eyes in mind when that was written?

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

UAH V6.0 Global Temperature Update for October 2015: +0.43 deg. C

November 2nd, 2015 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

YR MO GLOBE NH SH TROPICS
2015 01 +0.28 +0.40 +0.16 +0.13
2015 02 +0.17 +0.30 +0.05 -0.06
2015 03 +0.16 +0.26 +0.07 +0.05
2015 04 +0.08 +0.18 -0.01 +0.09
2015 05 +0.28 +0.36 +0.21 +0.27
2015 06 +0.33 +0.41 +0.25 +0.46
2015 07 +0.18 +0.33 +0.03 +0.47
2015 08 +0.27 +0.25 +0.30 +0.51
2015 09 +0.25 +0.34 +0.17 +0.55
2015 10 +0.43 +0.64 +0.21 +0.53

As can be seen, there was a rather large jump in the global average anomaly, but instead of it being due to the tropics being warmer (as El Nino continues), it was due to a very warm (but not record warm) month in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics.

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2015/11/uah-v6-0-global-temperature-update-for-october-2015-0-43-deg-c/

# # #

So much for “global” warming”.

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