Lopsided science or skewed news—you choose

an Argo buoy

An Argo buoy held by Dana Swift, University of Washington.

The NZ Herald reports that one of the world’s leading oceanographers, Professor Dean Roemmich, is in New Zealand to examine data from the Argo floats.

The Herald reporter directing the public perception of climate science, Jamie Morton, claims:

Hundreds of robotic instruments deployed across the South Pacific have begun to reveal dramatic new insights into the impact of climate change upon oceans in our corner of the world. (emphasis added)

He briefly describes the technological marvel of the widely dispersed Argo floats, saying there are enough now “to measure every degree of latitude and longitude of the world’s oceans four times a year.” The lat/long lines form squares about 110 km on a side. So, on average, four floats every year will enter each square—nice accomplishment.

Now for some misdirection. Prof Roemmich asserts that for some time he and colleagues have seen “an ongoing trend of change in the South Pacific Gyre,” saying that the amount of water transported by it over the past decade “had increased about 10 per cent”—the same as in each of the previous two decades.

In the context, you might assume this had been observed by the Argo floats, but you’d be wrong. For a) the numbers of Argo floats became significant only about ten years ago and b) Roemmich says current changes were “mainly being driven by winds,” and the floats are underwater most of the time so they can’t detect the winds.

The good professor asserts: “the changes so far seen in ocean circulation were linked to climate change.”

Of course, just about everything can be “linked” to climate change, but to insinuate that man-made warmth changed the ocean circulation cannot be justified. For neither the Argo floats nor the satellites nor the terrestrial thermometers show any warming for about 20 years, and by what mechanism could that non-existent atmospheric warming influence ocean currents?

Professor Roemmich directly echoes a common theme among warmists eager to persuade the uninformed: that it’s possible for the air significantly to heat the ocean. He seems unaware that the claim defies physics.

Unfortunately for him his false claim also voids his final assertion, that climate change had “contributed to a heavily evidenced warming of oceans over the past 50 years.”

Because if it’s impossible, it did not occur.

He praises New Zealand’s contribution to global oceanography, though:

Without the contribution of NIWA, which has deployed about 1200 floats from its Kaharoa vessel, the Argo programme could not have succeeded, Professor Roemmich said. “New Zealand has been absolutely critical for achieving a global array.”


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The Herald reporter named should be renamed as the ‘Alarmist’ reporter, as his ‘reportings’ have little connection with science as we understand the term but focus on the theme ‘we’re all gonna die!’.


That is quite a nice photo of the rainbow with the pot of gold at the end of it known as “climate change research funding”


well done Andy – perfect!

Mike Jowsey

So a trend is evident after only 10 years of sparse data. Riiight…. can you say “Cherry Picking”? Speaking of which, a lovely hot dry season has produced the best cherries from my orchard in 6 or 7 years. About time this global warming started working around here! Cheers and cheerio!

Richard C (NZ)

>….can you say “Cherry Picking”?

You can Mike. And good news too.


Apparently 2014 has a 38% chance of being the “hottest year ever”.


Richard C (NZ)

sshhh…….don’t mention the models……


Michael Mann is furiously posting to Facebook about the “warmest year ever”


It is hard to take this blatant propaganda from Schmidt et al seriously at all. So he releases the “hottest year ever” press release and then admits afterwards that they are only 38% sure that this is true.

BEST, meanwhile, claim that there is little to chose between the high points of the last decade.

Richard C (NZ)

Tisdale, Motl, Rose, and Nova on the bias from NCDC and GISS: Bob Tisdale: ‘Does the Uptick in Global Surface Temperatures in 2014 Help the Growing Difference between Climate Models and Reality?’ http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/01/16/does-the-uptick-in-global-surface-temperatures-in-2014-help-the-growing-difference-between-climate-models-and-reality/ Bob Tisdale: ‘On the Biases Caused by Omissions in the 2014 NOAA State of the Climate Report’ http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/01/17/on-the-biases-caused-by-omissions-in-the-2014-noaa-state-of-the-climate-report/ Luboš Motl: ‘NOAA, NASA: 2014 was probably not the warmest year on our record’ http://motls.blogspot.co.nz/2015/01/noaa-nasa-2014-was-probably-not-warmest.html David Rose: ‘Nasa climate scientists: We said 2014 was the warmest year on record… but we’re only 38% sure we were right’ http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2915061/Nasa-climate-scientists-said-2014-warmest-year-record-38-sure-right.html I think Rose read Motl’s post. Jo Nova: ‘Gavin Schmidt now admits NASA are only 38% sure 2014 was the hottest year’ http://joannenova.com.au/2015/01/gavin-schmidt-now-says-they-are-only-38-sure-2014-was-the-hottest-year/ Bob Tisdale’s summary post: ‘GISS & NCDC Need to Be More Open with the Public when Making Proclamations about Global Warming Records’ http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/01/19/giss-ncdc-need-to-be-more-open-with-the-public-when-making-proclamations-about-global-warming-records/ The whole 2014 SOTC report has blown up in the faces of Tom Karl (NCDC) and Gavin Schmidt (GISS). I saw Karl on Al Jazeera, I think it was, repeating the mantra. Silly thing is, the temperature spike was produced singularly by NH Pacific SST (JMA says El Nino conditions since June) in 2014. But there was a… Read more »


I feel pretty reluctant to comment at Hot Topic whilst Bill is fizzing that 2014 is the “Stalingrad of Denial” and that we all need to apologise to Al Gore, Michael Mann and Lewandowsky.


You could try posting a link to Bob Tisdale – Climate Observations, Andy:


Same post’s as at WUWT above but not the offending WUWT link. You might highlight ‘Does the Uptick in Global Surface Temperatures in 2014 Help the Growing Difference between Climate Models and Reality?’ given Bill can be relied upon not to.

See if you get sent to the Twilight Zone anyway. Or at least the link removed.


“Dry weather could empty Lake Opuha”

I am going to write to our leaders and urge them to take action. This is unacceptable. Somebody just has to do something


That’s a vicious lie, the taniwha’s been drinking it all. Maybe if we pay some more tax and give it to the UN?

Richard C (NZ)

New Zealand and Australia 2014 temperature relative to other 21st century years:

2000, 12.79
2001, 12.90 4th
2002, 12.67
2003, 12.62
2004, 12.17
2005, 13.11 2nd
2006, 12.40
2007, 12.67
2008, 12.86 5th
2009, 12.31
2010, 13.10 3rd
2011, 12.80 =6th
2012, 12.50
2013, 13.40 1st
2014, 12.80 =6th

Annual Climate Summary 2014 | NIWA

2013, 1st
2014, 3rd

‘Warm oceans drive hottest year on record with more to come, US agencies say’ [Sydney Morning Herald]

WMO estimate 2014 was Europe’s warmest in at least the past 500 years, beating 2007 by 0.3 degrees.

Central North America among the areas posting cooler-than-average (“more to come” in the US?).

Poor sods at NIWA have nothing to point to from the “warmest year ever”.

Richard C (NZ)

‘Pope’s climate-change stand deepens conservatives’ distrust’ NZ Herald, 5:40 AM Tuesday Jan 20, 2015 NEW YORK (AP) ” Conservative distrust of Pope Francis, which has been building in the U.S. throughout his pontificate, is reaching a boiling point over his plan to urge action on climate change ” and to do so through a document traditionally used for the most important papal teachings. For months, Francis has been drafting an encyclical on the environment and global warming which he hopes to release by June or July. Encyclicals are written with the help of a small group of advisers working under strict secrecy. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11388870 >”small group of advisers” ? ‘Pope Embraces the Green Religion’ by James Delingpole30 Dec 2014 Of course, the Pope’s views on climate change will only be as good as the “expert” advice he gets. And unfortunately, on this score, the auguries do not bode well – as we learn by studying the list of delegates at a workshop staged by the Vatican in May 2014 with the grisly theme “Sustainable Humanity Sustainable Nature Our Responsibility.” (H/T Bishop Hill) The event was a veritable Who’s Who of Climate Stupid. Delegates included:… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)

AP/NZ Herald:

Those on all sides of the debate will be watching for how far the pope will delve into the science around climate change in the body of the encyclical. In a news conference last August, Francis said that since the document is “doctrinal and needs to be certain,” less-certain scientific theories could be mentioned in footnotes. But the pope did not offer any examples.

# # #

Problematic if the man-made climate change encyclical is “doctrinal and needs to be certain”.

But since when does the pope define the MM climate change certainties (if there are any)?


Will all future decrees on “the warmest year ever” be announced in Latin from the Papal Pulpit?


The Pope was also justifying violence in his recent commentary on the Paris massacre (comments about punching someone), so he’ll fit right in with the Modern Day Church of Climatology

Richard C (NZ)

Wears fancy dress, a funny hat (see below), and kisses icons. Other than that, what was his message in the Philippines? And what did he effectively do? It was all a no-substance PR exercise. Meanwhile others actually do stuff, especially in the slums of Manilla where people routinely lose everything to typhoons: Philippine Christian Foundation (PCF) | ICARE Mission: To permanently improve the quality of life of the poorest Filipino communities, through education, nutrition, health, medical, and financial enhancement programs, regardless of religion, race, or political boundaries. Ethics: They aim to work to the highest standard, to be accountable and transparent, and to be guided by Godly values and beliefs. The Philippine Christian Foundation is a registered charity with Securities Exchange and Commission in the Philippines. Vision: To free every Filipino child and their family from the effects of poverty. http://icare.ism-online.org/metro-manila-sites/pcf/ [RC, I don’t know how you justify raising the next subtopic, as it’s not connected with the post and it’s prolix. Interesting, but is it your writing? Please practise brevity when so far off topic. – Richard T] THE POPE’S MITRE / DAGON FISH HAT https://boxoff.wordpress.com/2011/03/20/the-popes-mitre-dagon-fish-hat/ Dagon was a pagan fish god… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)

>”Other than that, what was his message in the Philippines?”

“Solidarity with the poor” apparently:

‘Pope arrives in Philippines, calls for solidarity with the poor’

OK, so what exactly is “solidarity with the poor”?

From the article:

Recalling the outpouring of solidarity that followed Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) in November 2013, the Pope called for political leaders to “be outstanding for honesty, integrity and commitment to the common good” and to hearken to “the moral imperative of ensuring social justice and respect for human dignity.”

“The great biblical tradition enjoins on all peoples the duty to hear the voice of the poor,” he said. “It bids us break the bonds of injustice and oppression which give rise to glaring, and indeed scandalous, social inequalities. Reforming the social structures which perpetuate poverty and the exclusion of the poor first requires a conversion of mind and heart.”

# # #

Turns out “solidarity with the poor” is all about”Reforming the social structures which perpetuate poverty and the exclusion of the poor” and “a conversion of mind and heart”.

A conversion to what?


I have serious worries about the mental state of the current pontiff, who seems to be working hard to demolish what little goodwill he has engendered in the world at large by attempting to justify violence in any form when he echoes silly schoolboys of my experience who attempt to justify their own violent behaviour be whining that ‘He dissed me Mum!’
I doubt that his new encyclical will be of much use when he attempts to ride it beyond the Vatican walls

Richard C (NZ)

‘Pause Over Within 10 Years Says NASA’s Schmidt’ 19.01.2015 Global temperatures will resume their long term growth trend within five to 10 years ending the so called pause in global warming, a leading climate scientist has predicted. The pause – which on some measures has gone on since the mid-1990s – continued into 2014 on the basis of global temperature data released last week by US space agency NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the US. However, the warming effect of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide will grow sufficiently to overcome the combined impact of various natural climate cooling factors, journalists on a telephone news conference were told last week by Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies. There is evidence that volcanoes and a slightly dimmer Sun have acted to cool the Earth recently and so offset the warming impact of greenhouse gases, according to Schmidt, widely seen as a strong advocate for the case that humans are causing climate change. But Schmidt said that he did not expect the global warming pause – which he referred to as the hiatus – to persist.… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)

>”….the warming effect of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide will grow sufficiently to overcome the combined impact of various natural climate cooling factors, journalists on a telephone news conference were told last week by Gavin Schmidt”

So at present, to drive climate, CO2 forcing is inadequate at 400ppm and the highest anthro emissions ever. Therefore CO2 is currently an ineffectual climate driver in the presence of natural factors.

Hmmm….interesting implication Gavin.

Richard C (NZ)

‘Just How Stupid Are These People?’

Posted on January 20, 2015 by stevengoddard

One day after Gavin is quoted as predicting at least five more years of pause, Mikey pats Gavin on the back for saying the pause is dead. What are these people smoking?

[See screen grabs – Twitter (Mann) and reportingclimatescience (Schmidt)]

Richard C (NZ)

[Schmidt] – “in five to ten years time it is changes in greenhouse gases that will dominate”

Schmidt’s been wrong for the last five to ten years, what will make him right for the next five to ten?

Richard C (NZ)

>”Lopsided science or skewed news—you choose” This one is just brainless, and a disturbing conflation: ‘Tackling poverty and climate change two sides of the same coin’ By Vaidehi Shah Tuesday 20 January 2015 In recent years, the development community’s efforts to eradicate extreme poverty, improve global health and increase access to education have involved little dialogue with global movements working to address climate change. But these goals will only be achieved if global leaders regard climate change and poverty eradication as two parts of a unified development agenda, said experts at a panel discussion on Monday. Hosted by the British High Commission at Eden Hall in Singapore, the discussion centred on 2015’s potential to be a ‘defining moment for sustainable development’. Panelist Michel Anglade, campaigns and advocacy director for UK-based non-profit Save the Children’s Asia Office, observed that Typhoon Haiyan, which hit the Philippines in November 2013 and cyclones Sidr and Aila which struck Bangladesh in 2007 and 2009 respectively, had an adverse impact on child mortality and access to education. “This shows that the climate change and poverty eradication agenda are one. But it is not treated as such by the global… Read more »


Given that climate change policies are driving people into poverty (and are designed to by their very nature), it seems they have an interesting conundrum facing them.

Richard C (NZ)

I can’t get past how tropical typhoons have become climate change. And that they must be eradicated in order to eradicate poverty.

Tall and costly order to create both Goldilocks weather and living standards – if that is even possible. I’m more inclined to think Daddy and Mummy Bear will be grumpier than ever (your conundrum Andy).

But tropical typhoons are now climate change?

Richard C (NZ)

‘Massive Tampering With Temperatures In South America’ By Paul Homewood, January 20, 2015 One of the regions that has contributed to GISS’ “hottest ever year” is South America, particularly Brazil, Paraguay and the northern part of Argentina. In reality, much of this is fabricated, as they have no stations anywhere near much of this area, as NOAA show below. Nevertheless, there does appear to be a warm patch covering Paraguay and its close environs. However, when we look more closely, we find things are not quite as they seem. [See data coverage graph] There are just three genuinely rural stations in Paraguay that are currently operating – Puerto Casado, Mariscal and San Juan. They all show a clear and steady upward trend since the 1950’s, with 2014 at the top, for instance at Puerto Casada: [graph] It could not be more clearcut, could it? However, it all looks a bit too convenient, so I thought I would check out the raw data (which is only available up to 2011 on the GISS site, so the last three years cannot be compared). Lo and behold! [graph] As we so often see, the past has… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)

‘The Most Dishonest Year on Record’ By Robert Tracinski, January 19, 2015 Last week, according to our crackerjack mainstream media, NASA announced that 2014 was the hottest year, like, ever. No, really. The New York Times began its report with: “Last year was the hottest in earth’s recorded history.” Well, not really. As we’re about to see, this is a claim that dissolves on contact with actual science. But that didn’t stop the press from running with it. If you follow the link I gave to the New York Times piece, you will see that this opening sentence has since been rewritten, for reasons which will soon become clear. But the Times wasn’t the only paper to start with that claim, and most of the headlines are still up. The Washington Post has: “2014 Was the Hottest Year in Recorded History.” The Boston Globe: “2014 Was Earth’s Hottest Year in Recorded History.” And so on. You can see how misleading this is. When you read the phrase “in recorded history,” you think we’re talking about a really long time—the time dating back to the first historical records in Sumeria, circa 3500 BC. (That’s… Read more »


And in other news, this article about the UK Green Party is not satire, unfortunately


Completely barking mad maybe?

Richard C (NZ)

Not sure I needed to start the day with my mind thoroughly warped, but thank you anyway Andy. I think.

Richard C (NZ)

‘Is climate change really that dangerous? Predictions are ‘very greatly exaggerated’, claims study’ Researchers claim global warming predictions are ‘greatly exaggerated’ Large climate models typically require computers to perform calculations They consider factors such as animal numbers and tectonic variations By comparison, a team of researchers has created a ‘simple’ model It looks at levels of solar energy absorbed and reflected by Earth Using this simple model, they claim current predictions are wrong Once errors are corrected, global warming in response to a doubling of CO2 is around 1°C or less – a third of the predicted 3.3°C By Victoria Woollaston for MailOnline Published: 17:28 GMT, 21 January 2015 | Updated: 17:31 GMT, 21 January 2015 Author Dr Willie Soon, an solar physicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Centre for Astrophysics, said: ‘Our work suggests that man’s influence on climate may have been much overstated. ‘The role of the sun has been undervalued. Our model helps to present a more balanced view.’ MailOnline has contacted the IPCC for comment. Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2920311/Is-climate-change-really-dangerous-Predictions-greatly-exaggerated-claims-study.html#ixzz3PUJ9d5ff It will be interesting to read what the IPCC has to say, if they face the music that is.

Richard C (NZ)


New Zealand’s average temperature was only slightly above average in 2014.

Niwa released its 2014 climate summary on January 9, which found the nationwide average temperature for the year was 12.8 degrees Celsius, 0.2C above the average from 1981-2010.

The year as a whole was an unspectacular 23rd-warmest, based on Niwa’s seven-station series which started in 1909.



Al Gore is promising is a huge party to gather 1 billion signatures to “urge” our leaders to take action on climate change.


Apparently “humanity will harmonies all at once”

Yeah, baby.


The suggestion that Matt Ridley be beheaded (in the Guardian comments, see Bishop Hill) has put a bit of a dampener on discussion

Richard C (NZ)

BH asks “But was this a one-off?” re Greenpeace’s Gene Hasmi prior to Guardian author, Gary Evans. But there was already Prof Parncutt:

‘Prof. Richard Parncutt: Death Penalty for Global Warming Deniers?’

‘Austrian Prof: global warming deniers should be sentenced to death’

And not forgetting Grist Magazine and staff writer David Roberts called for the Nuremberg-style trials for the “bastards” who were members of what he termed the global warming “denial industry” which was news at the US Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works (EPW):

Majority Fact of the Day



I expect this from those types, it’s their superiority mindset. Of a completely different stripe is the likes of Dave Frame who has never used the term “denier” that I’ve ever read.

Richard C (NZ)

‘Nonsensus about the Senate’s non consensus on climate change’ by Judith Curry On the politicization of ‘climate change’. On my recent post Raw politics, I made the following remark re President Obama’s tweet: ‘Climate change is real’ is almost a tautology; climate has always changed and always will, independently of anything humans do. Senate votes A few hours after I posted this, the U.S. Senate provides some interesting news, summarized in this article by Andrew Freedman: “The Senate made history on Wednesday by overwhelmingly passing a non-binding “Sense of the Senate” resolution stating simply that “climate change is real and not a hoax.” Previous climate change-related non-binding resolutions were not supported by such large numbers. In a development that seemed to surprise Democratic senators and environmental groups, the most prominent climate change contrarian in the Senate, Environment and Public Works Committee chairman James Inhofe, R-Okla., joined Democratic Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island in co-sponsoring the climate amendment, which was offered during debate on a Keystone-XL Pipeline bill. If Whitehouse’s amendment had included one additional word or phrase, such as “man-made,” it wouldn’t have drawn Inhofe’s support, or that of many of his… Read more »


Bishop Hill recently had a great quote. It said the phrase “climate change is caused by humans” is a bit like saying “alcohol causes babies”

Richard C (NZ)

‘Named and shamed: the shoddy, rent-a-quote “scientists” ‘ By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley IT IS time to be angry at the intellectual bankruptcy of climate “science” today. We should also be fearful of the UN’s gruesome plan, aided and abetted by ministers and bureaucrats worldwide, to establish a global climate “government” by an irrevocable treaty in Paris this December on the basis of what is now known to be dodgy and even fraudulent science. No such treaty is needed. A climate science paper by Dr Willie Soon, Professor David Legates, Matt Briggs and me, just published in the Science Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the Orient’s equivalent of Nature (at http://www.scibull.com, click on “Current Issue” to find our paper) demonstrates that the billion-dollar climate models that have so profitably predicted Thermageddon are hopelessly wrong. Instead of 3, 5 or even 10 Cº of global warming in response to our doubling the CO2 in the air, there will be 1 Cº and perhaps less even than that. What “climate crisis”? On January 22, Victoria Woollaston reported our results at http://www.mailonline.com, the website of the London Daily Mail, under the heading Is climate… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)

Christopher Monckton, Willie W.-H. Soon, David R. Legates, William M. Briggs. Why models run hot: results from an irreducibly simple climate model. Science Bulletin, 2015, 60(1): 122-135.

And see ‘Climate Models’ here:


The various “pre-bunkings” of the Monckton paper are shameless in the fact that no one seems to have bothered reading it

Richard C (NZ)

I’ve read the text but haven’t picked apart the mathematical constructs except for cursory look. Can’t say I subscribe to the methodology (yet) because it will only have the appearance of validity if there is no cooling AT ALL in reality i.e. it is a luke-warm approach (although I may have this wrong by my understanding to date).

Having said that, the fact that the application of the simple model by hand-held calculator yields a better result at present with more appropriate constructs than that from supercomputer versions is bound to ruffle feathers. I have a programmable scientific calculator that, if I had the inclination, could easily handle it.

BTW, thanks to Gareth for his link to Monckton’s WMD article:

‘Equation spells doom for climate communists’

Hugely problematic (“fatal”) for the catastrophists, or, as Monckton puts it –
the “climate communists”.


“I shall demand their dismissal”

I really wish CM wouldn’t do this. It just sounds pompous. He just plays into their hands

Richard C (NZ)


Richard C (NZ)

And on the now ongoing topic (what it all appears to be about) of Monckton’s “climate communists”, Attorney Chris Horner’s “Richard Windsor” FOIA: March 09 EPA Strategy Memo to LPJ (PDF obtained via FOIA) https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2015/01/march-09-epa-strategy-memo-to-lpj.pdf WUWT: ‘Outed by FOIA – EPA strategy memo reveals deep flaws in the integrity of the agency, and lack of integrity of the press’ Anthony Watts / 10 hours ago January 26, 2015 Attorney Chris Horner writes in with this bombshell which shows how “evangelism” has replaced factual analysis at the EPA, which is helped along by a compliant mass media. See the attached document obtained via FOIA. His take on it includes: * Obtained from the ongoing “Richard Windsor” FOIA, precisely as FOIA intended this allows the American public to see what bureaucrats and, in this case, ideological activists in government say among themselves and their pressure group allies, helping us keep a proper perspective about what these same activists tell the public. * What this memo shows is the recognition that EPA needed to move its global warming campaign away from the failed global model of discredited Big Green pressure groups and their icons, that it… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)

The Met Office said:

“The HadCRUT4 dataset (compiled by the Met Office and the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit) shows last year was 0.56C (±0.1C) above the long-term (1961-1990) average. Nominally this ranks 2014 as the joint warmest year in the record, tied with 2010, but the uncertainty ranges mean it’s not possible to definitively say which of several recent years was the warmest.”

– See more at: http://www.thegwpf.com/met-office-confirms-2014-continues-global-pause/#sthash.I8a8pMZH.dpuf


An unspectacular graphical depiction. I like it.


The rather unspectacular “warmest year ever” results also published at BEST

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