Fog of the Blog

Expressed sometimes as State of the Nation

The Chinese hackers have been battering on the blog door until a couple of days ago but have now given up and gone away. The technical team at the web hosting company (nzwebhosting4u.com) have dealt to them. Turns out the high traffic figures I’ve alluded to over the past months were spurious.

The blog will be moving away from WordShine soon, to climateconversation.org.nz.

This writer is becoming busy with editing work, as the academic year gets under way.

Thank you, my loyal readers and friends, for keeping up the conversation in my frequent absences of late. I especially like the mentions of breaking, noteworthy stories. I’m now catching up and will post new comments shortly.

The unfinished analysis of the report from the Commissioner for the Environment has not been forgotten. It is at the top of the list.

It looks to be an exciting year ahead; my belated Season’s greetings to you all, a Happy New Year and may you each find in it that which opens your heart.

Peace and blessings.

Richard Treadgold.

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Richard TreadgoldMike JowseyAndyRichard C (NZ)HemiMck Recent comment authors
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HemiMck
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HemiMck

And a happy New Year to you and yours Richard.

One thought for a new year

Coming up to six years from Gareths “Poles Apart”, isn’t it time he is called out on his conclusions. He is after all an analyst who is not beholding to anyone and is basically I believe a good man. His book did serious harm in that it reinforced false premises on which political policies were based.

Come on Gareth, the models don’t work which means the whole house of cards falls over.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

For the record: ‘Clarification: Hottest Year story’ By SETH BORENSTEIN, Jan. 23, 2015 1:32 PM EST WASHINGTON (AP) — In a story Jan. 16, The Associated Press reported that the odds that nine of the 10 hottest years have occurred since 2000 are about 650 million to one. These calculations, as the story noted, treated as equal the possibility of any given year in the records being one of the hottest. The story should have included the fact that substantial warming in the years just prior to this century could make it more likely that the years since were warmer, because high temperatures tend to persist. The story also reported that 2014 was the hottest year on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA, but did not include the caveat that other recent years had average temperatures that were almost as high — and they all fall within a margin of error that lessens the certainty that any one of the years was the hottest. An earlier version of the story quoted Rutgers University climate scientist Jennifer Francis as noting that the margin of error makes it uncertain whether… Read more »

Andy
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Andy

There was a piece in this weeks Press which my father in law alerted me to, entitled “Austrialia is getting hotter,faster”

When I read the article, I could find no reference to back up the present tense claim. It was all future projections which the Aussies are “very confident” are correct, based on their modelling

Having said that, it has been a long hot and dry summer in the South Island so far. Good for swimming and general playing, not so good for farmers. lake Opuha near Fairlie is getting close to having no water at all

Mike Jowsey
Guest
Mike Jowsey

Andy – wait for it…. can you hear the rustle? Can you feel the thunder of hooves? Wait…. you will. “With no El Nino, Scientists Point to Global Warming as Most Likely Cause”

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

The present is a bit mysterious but the future climate is no mystery Andy, just needs lots of guesses:

“The projections are the most comprehensive ever released for Australia and have been prepared with an emphasis on informing impact assessment and planning in the natural resource management sector. Information has been drawn from simulations based on up to 40 global climate models.”

http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/new-climate-change-projections-for-australia.html

Jo Nova puts it differently:

“Those who believe the Glorious Climate Models (GCMs) are in trouble.”

http://joannenova.com.au/2015/01/climate-grief-believers-mourning-its-denial-and-anger-but-it-sure-isnt-science/

And,

‘The Prophets of Doom are still at The Guardian (and the CSIRO)’

“Climate change will hit Australia harder than rest of world, study shows”

The first paragraph contains the word “could”. It’s all a guess based on models they already know are broken:

“Australia could be on track for a temperature rise of more than 5C by the end of the century,…….”

http://joannenova.com.au/2015/01/climate-change-will-hit-australia-and-asia-africa-arctic-eu-pacific-harder-than-rest-of-world/

In other news – chicken warns sky is falling.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

But claims the models are wrong are “unfounded” apparently: ‘Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends’ Jochem Marotzke & Piers M. Forster (2015) Abstract Most present-generation climate models simulate an increase in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) since 1998, whereas observations suggest a warming hiatus. It is unclear to what extent this mismatch is caused by incorrect model forcing, by incorrect model response to forcing or by random factors. Here we analyse simulations and observations of GMST from 1900 to 2012, and show that the distribution of simulated 15-year trends shows no systematic bias against the observations. Using a multiple regression approach that is physically motivated by surface energy balance, we isolate the impact of radiative forcing, climate feedback and ocean heat uptake on GMST—with the regression residual interpreted as internal variability—and assess all possible 15- and 62-year trends. The differences between simulated and observed trends are dominated by random internal variability over the shorter timescale and by variations in the radiative forcings used to drive models over the longer timescale. For either trend length, spread in simulated climate feedback leaves no traceable imprint on GMST trends or, consequently, on the difference… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Amazing. Marotzke & Forster appear to be completely oblivious to the oscillatory component in global temperature (see Macias, Stips, Garcia-Gorriz above):

“What people have done before is cherry picking to try to come up with their preferred explanation for a particular period,” Forster said. “We tried to be more objective than that and look at all the possible begin dates and end dates.”

For instance, if you take 1927 as a beginning, then 110 of 114 simulations turn out to under-estimate the observed temperature trends, the study noted. With 1998 as a beginning date, the models over-estimate the actual change.

And,

“The ocean just fluctuates and changes from time to time and that is quite unpredictable, so it can give significant 15-year counter-trends,” Forster said. For that reason, some 15-year intervals can lag behind the measured temperature trends, he said.

And,

“The best explanation we offer is these chaotic and random fluctuations within the oceans,” Forster said. “It does seem to be that the Pacific and the Atlantic are drawing heat down from the atmosphere.”

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/climate-models-dont-overpredict-warming-nature-study-shows-20150128-130lsb.html

>”It does seem to be that the Pacific and the Atlantic are drawing heat down from the atmosphere.”

These guys are brain dead.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

UK Met Office Decadal Forecast: 2015
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc

They have omitted their forecasts after 2005 and there’s no readily available archive to access the sequence i.e. these have been expunged unless you dig for them:

Decadal Forecast: 2014
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/1/8/decadal_forecast_2014-2018_jan2014.pdf

Decadal Forecast: 2013
comment image

Decadal Forecast: 2012
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/image/8/m/plumes_2012-800px.jpeg

Decadal Forecast 2012 vs 2011
http://blogs.shell.com/climatechange/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Global-Annual-Temperature-UK-Met-Office.jpg

Decadal Forecast: 2009
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/image/s/n/decadal-prediction-global-average-temperature-lb.jpg

Note the anomaly baseline changes from 1971-2000 in 2013 to 1981-2010 in 2014.

The radical change was the 0.35 C downgrade from 2011 to 2012 and the shorter forecast horizon (they were obviously wrong, they had to do something). From 2012 onward, basically the same forecast is being moved along each year but with similar re-initialization due to the “pause”.

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results – Albert Einstein

Andy
Guest
Andy

Reading the Listener piece on ACT’s David Seymour, the claim was made that Seymour “accepts” human induced climate change, but is sceptical about the models.

In other words, he is a sceptic.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)
Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Also this:

Ruairi #19

A measure to third decimal place,
Is hardly a temperature trace.
The results from the buoys,
Is really just noise,
And no threat to the globe, or the race.

Andy
Guest
Andy

“Cornwall to build the first ever “sea level lowering pipe” to cure global warming”
http://cornishnews.com/2015/02/03/cornwall-to-build-the-first-ever-sea-level-lowering-pipe-to-cure-global-warming/

Good for a chuckle

Andy
Guest
Andy

I had an interesting exchange with someone at Hot Topic over the last few days who accused me of “lying” about a Wikipedia quote on Arrhenius

My quote was about Arrhenius’ revision downwards of climate sensitivity to 2 degrees. I was accused of “lying” because the Wikipedia page was altered by “deniers” and wasn’t correct

I was then provided a paper in German, by Arrhenius, which apparently proved I was “lying”

I then found the English translation, and in a roundabout way, found the passage in the original German text that supported the 2.1 degree CS value (including water vapour)

Apparently this is not relevant because there is some other evidence that Arrhenius’ thought the value was higher.

So, in conclusion, I am a liar because I quoted Wikipedia, found the original German text that supports the Wiki quote, (and is a quote widely used at SkS, for example), but it is not relevant because it doesn’t fit the narrative

I’m still struggling with post-modern thinking.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”The pipe should be finished in the next couple of weeks”

Snappy work for a 100,000 km pipe laid, er, vertically.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Heads they win, tails you lose Andy.

Have you seen Nic Lewis at CA?

‘Marotzke and Forster’s circular attribution of CMIP5 intermodel warming differences’
http://climateaudit.org/2015/02/05/marotzke-and-forsters-circular-attribution-of-cmip5-intermodel-warming-differences/

Andy
Guest
Andy

Yeah. So I am banned again for upsetting Rob Taylor, who thinks burning people alive in a cage is OK because apparently Israelis do worse things.

I can’t even describe how much contempt for this scum.

Hot Topic can and will disappear up its own self loathing backside.

Andy
Guest
Andy

In case you think I have drifted waaaay off Topic, Aussie Madness has similar thoughts

http://aussiemadness.com/2015/02/08/psychotic-obama-compares-islamic-state-with-christianity/

Andy
Guest
Andy

I would be called a lIar if I claimed the sky is blue. I think I have better things to do with my life.

Andy
Guest
Andy

No I don’t intend to burn this bridge.
I noticed that the usual pyschoanalysis goes on after my departure.

Rob Taylor opines

Denialists are a form of economic parasite preying on their own offspring, running up a bill they’ll die before having to pay. And every year of delay increases the costs that future generations will have to bear.”

Which is an interesting observation of someone who has worked at home for several years and been self employed for 15 years. I don’t have a particularly big “carbon footprint” and I am not stopping these people doing anything to “take action”

The only reason they hate me is because I am not a believer, I am an infidel.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

I could understand your excommunication if had been for questioning Saint Arrhenius’ sainthood.

But for questioning ISIS barbarity?

What happens when Key (Jewish) sends troops on behalf of NZ?

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”a form of economic parasite”

This from a supporter of those who beg professionally – Greenpeace.

Andy
Guest
Andy

Obviously when you have such erudition from James Delingpole as your guide, language can get a little florid…

Right, snivelling, mendacious, corrupt, shrivelled-and-syphilitic-membered, pseudo-scientific, rabid climate trolls. Let’s be hearing your pitiful excuses….”

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100234054/if-you-still-believe-in-climate-change-read-this/?fb

Note that this article references work from former Act leader Jamie Whyte

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