A robust conversation

Personal statement

My apologies are overdue

I’ve been absent without excuse for just over five weeks—unprecedented in over eight years of climate blogging—and it feels like a lifetime. It is surely rude not to let readers know what I’m up to.

My wife Ann and I are busy readying her late Aunt Rita’s property for sale. It is nearby and completely absorbing. In about another month or so, I’ll be free to spend some time on the Climate Conversation again.

It’s delightful indeed that the conversation continues so well without me. Not because it demonstrates how unimportant I am (since it merely confirms what is redundant, in my view), but rather because it shows the leading role this website plays in an important modern topic. I’m proud to be associated with it and with you, and thank you for your loyalty.

Deeply gratifying

This is a vital moment in the development of our climate knowledge, with the release of AR5 and the associated ridiculosity, on the one hand, of the IPCC and its adherents scorning the honourable practice of science and the strengthening and multiplying voices, on the other hand, of their noble opposition. Yea, even unto the mainstream organs of news and knowledge like the BBC!

Who might have thought it possible just a couple of short years ago that sceptical queries and objections could be expressed in conservative media? The power of your questioning, reasoning, rational speech and gentle persistence may be invincible.

So, I’m sorry for not having been contributing of late, but there is still much to say and I will be back, so (let me pretend I need to say this) please carry on without me! :-\

With affection to all,

101 Thoughts on “A robust conversation

  1. Keep calm and carry on!

  2. Richard C (NZ) on October 1, 2013 at 8:48 am said:

    No rush RT. We’re waiting for the warming to resume anyway.

  3. Hope you’re not holding your breath.

  4. Actually we are waiting for Skeptical Science to produce their list of pre-canned responses to criticisms of AR5.

  5. An interesting little diversion for me at local site The Standard, which i mentioned yesterday

    http://thestandard.org.nz/ipcc-ar5-thank-the-oceans/#comment-702728

    I think the average guy has lost interest in this a long time ago. Even TVOne brought up “the pause” on the 6 O’Clock news this week, and featured sceptical blogger Andrew Montford.

    [lprent: andyS is now under moderation in this post for displaying the traits of being a credulous idiot trolling my post.

    And now permanently banned. Over the course of this post he has parroted other sites, never shown any signs of understanding any science, and never shown any signs of listening to others. Despite numerous hints his behaviour has persisted. All his comments will now be deleted. ]

    To put this into perspective, I was asked for several references. One was for the 3 degree central estimate that the IPCC used to use (lprent seemd genuinely disbelieving that this existed)

    I provided that

    The other was for the statement that the IPCC have given up on their central estimate for AR5
    There were more accusations of being an idiot, etc.

    I provided that link (from the IPCC SPM)

    The other was for the calculation that the additional heat in the oceans amounts to 0.065 degrees C since 1960.

    I provided that link too, which was at Lubos’ site and contained full workings.

    Needless to say, the “conversation” reverted to form and insults were thrown at me, and I get banned for being a “credulous idiot”

    I can’t say I am sad that I don’t need to visit the cesspit known as The Standard anymore, but these guys purport to represent The Voice of the NZ Labour Moverment, and David Cunliffe sometimes posts there

    God help us if we get a Green/Labour govt if these guys are anything to go by.

  6. Marx on Monday

    Marx on Monday: IPCC

    Last week when parts of the IPCC’s much heralded “Climate Change Report” were leaked to the press I, as much as any liberal, found myself despairing at some of its findings. No global warming for 16 years; record levels of sea ice; so many polar bears that the UN was proposing a humane cull to limit their numbers; no extreme weather conditions like hurricanes and typhoons – and – worst of all – the computer forecasts were wrong and there was no global warming! I felt like I did when as a child I found out that there was no Santa Claus!

    Thank goodness, therefore, for the IPCC – the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. When I was a young boy I remember going to the theatre to see Peter Pan. I, along with the rest of the children, became very upset when Tinkerbell was dying, but Peter Pan saved her life by encouraging the audience to chant along with him, “I do – I do – I do believe in fairies.”

    And in like fashion the scientists of the IPCC, when faced with the evidence of their own scientific research that Global Warming was the stuff of fairy tales, simply stood in a circle, held hands and chanted, “we do – we do – we do believe in Global Warming.” And miraculously, just like Tinkerbell, Global Warming was brought back to life.

    And thank goodness it was. Unless you are a Liberal or a Democrat you cannot begin to understand what it would mean to live life without Global Warming. It would be like a Christian being presented with undeniable evidence that there is no God – only worse!

    The genius of the IPCC is best encapsulated by statistics. 95% of papers written on global warming agree that not only is it happening it is manmade. The beauty of that statistic is that exactly 95% of papers written on Global Warming are written by those who have a genuine liberal conviction that it is happening – as well as a financial interest in perpetuating the splendid liberal myth of Global Warming.

    What I find astounding is that 5% of scientists persist in being climate change deniers – in spite of being cast into purgatory for daring to denounce it. Don’t those idiots realise that the correct answer is that not only is Global Warming happening it is manmade? Why do they insist on bucking the trend by carrying out objective experiments and coming to objective conclusions?

    It’s the same with journalists. If you want a busy career in journalism you’ve got to be on the winning team. Forget the facts! Stick to the propaganda! Climate change deniers like James Delingpole who approach the subject objectively and cast doubt on the IPCC’s conclusions deserve to be gagged – and his book “Watermelons” deserves to be burned in a modern “sauberung” action against the un-global warming spirit. If Delingpole had lived in Nazi Germany no doubt he’d have insisted, in his pathetically objective, fact-based, way, on writing articles claiming that Jews were not untermenschen – in spite of the fact that well over 95% of papers written by German scientists on the Jewish question agreed that the Jews were. Like German journalists who cast doubt on the scientific consensus that the Aryan race were superior to the rest Delingpole and other climate change denying journalists would have been shot!

    Yet we Global Warming liberals are still forced to suffer objective journalism which casts doubt on what we know to be true in spite of the evidence – that Global Warming is a clear and present danger!

    http://bogpaper.com/2013/09/30/marx-on-monday-ipcc/

  7. Was NZ’s warmest winter on record still too cold for you?

  8. Richard C (NZ) on October 1, 2013 at 8:19 pm said:

    Well, you will parrot other sites Andy. Like the IPCC.

  9. I was out skiing today, 23rd day this season.

    The “warmest winter on record” was caused by 6 weeks of Northerly airflow that happened to set a new record for warmth. The early winter was very cold with record snow in South Canterbury

    Of course, 30 years determines a climate trend, unless you belong to the group of criminals known as “climate change advocates’ in which 6 weeks will do nicely, thanks

  10. That is the problem in a nutshell. If I started burbling on about chemtrails and Agenda 21, they would rally around for a bit of sport.

    When I skewer them with their own propaganda, they get very uncomfortable

  11. Richard C (NZ) on October 1, 2013 at 8:30 pm said:

    “we’re confident because we’re confident” – Professor Thomas Stocker, co-chair of WG1.

  12. Richard C (NZ) on October 1, 2013 at 11:48 pm said:

    >”Unless you are a Liberal or a Democrat”

    It’s rather more complicated than that and I don’t like the branding, I think it’s miss-applied. I’ve read comments from long time US Liberal Democrat MMCC sceptics, uncomfortable that the latest prevailing liberal concept doesn’t embody their conception (or that it’s been hijacked). From Wiki:

    “Classical liberal conceptions of liberty typically consist of the freedom of individuals from outside compulsion or coercion, also known as negative liberty. This conception of liberty, which coincides with the libertarian point-of-view, suggests that people should, must, and ought to behave according to their own free will, and take responsibility for their actions, while in contrast, Social liberal conceptions of (positive liberty) liberty place an emphasis upon social structure and agency and is therefore directed toward ensuring egalitarianism.”

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberty

    Liberal MMCC sceptics (possibly more aligned to the classical conception – not sure) are experiencing suppression of dissent from socialists and communitarians masquerading under the Social Liberal banner. Or possibly (I’m not sure exactly where those I read stood or even if they were either) the Liberal MMCC skeptics were Social Liberals whose understanding of the concept includes balance between individual liberty and social justice (I think this seems more like the situation):

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_liberalism

    In the latter and more probable case I think, Social Liberals’ individual liberties are being attacked by supposedly fellow Liberals whose “we’re right about everything and everyone else is wrong” attitude is anything but liberal.

    Once the component of individual liberty and responsibility is lost, there is no longer a liberal consensus and it’s anything-goes in pursuit of a social cause regime. The upshot being a federal system overseen by a supposedly Liberal Progressive but actually Communitarian President, shut down over the issue of social spending at a time when the country is head over heals in debt.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_liberalism_in_the_United_States

    Seems to me that the catch-all “Liberal” US political ideology category cannot be seen as representing actual liberal AND socialist/communitarian (the tail that wags the Democrat dog at the moment) for much longer i.e. polls like this are not representative:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ideology-trends.png

    41% Conservative
    36% Moderate
    21% Liberal [by default includes far Left who are not actually liberal]

    Obama and the socialist/communitarian Left (liberal in name only) can’t afford to alienate too many real Liberals and Moderates or they risk splitting the Democrats, similar to what happened with the Republicans and the Tea Party.

    It would be interesting to poll all the IPCC authors using more representative categories than above. I’m guessing results:

    1% Conservative
    10% Moderate
    20% Liberal
    69% Socialist

  13. Richard C (NZ) on October 2, 2013 at 12:11 am said:

    “we redistribute de facto the world’s wealth by climate policy” – Ottmar Edenhofer, UN.

  14. Richard C (NZ) on October 2, 2013 at 9:31 am said:

    ‘IPCC: Fixing the Facts’

    by Steve McIntyre

    Figure 1.4 of the Second Order Draft clearly showed the discrepancy between models and observations, though IPCC’s covering text reported otherwise. I discussed this in a post leading up to the IPCC Report, citing Ross McKitrick’s article in National Post and Reiner Grundmann’s post at Klimazweiberl. Needless to say, this diagram did not survive. Instead, IPCC replaced the damning (but accurate) diagram with a new diagram in which the inconsistency has been disappeared.

    >>>>>>>>>

    http://climateaudit.org/2013/09/30/ipcc-disappears-the-discrepancy/

  15. The “revised” graphic is already being shown on the The Guardian by Nutticelli and dutifully regurgitated by The Faithful as gospel

  16. Hot Topic is full of some rather remarkable drivel at the moment, including Dave Frame trying to defend the 2035 “Himalayagate” issue as a mere typo

    but this cracked me up from Thomas

    Thomas October 1, 2013 at 1:02 pm

    Flatus: The IPCC’s credibility is acknowledged by anybody with a brain between their ears. You however, and the sick hydra of right wing nutcases you represent here, will never accept this, because you can’t. Its against the paradigm you live by.

    just amazing really.

  17. Richard C (NZ) on October 2, 2013 at 12:33 pm said:

    Thing is, Figure 1.4 is a graph of CMIP3. It is the state-of-the-art, narrower margins, CMIP5 that’s relevant now.

    It will be interesting to see what the provenance of the new Figure 1.4 is and the “harmonization” details. SM:

    “None of this portion of the IPCC assessment is drawn from peer-reviewed material. Nor is it consistent with the documents sent to external reviewers.”

    Someone at CA points to a (possibly) contradictory graph in Chapter 11, I think it is. Also questions now over the hindcast prior to the zeroing point. In any event, observed temperatures can stay flat for another 15 years or so and still be within the new Figure 1.4 margin. Some catastrophe using CMIP3.

  18. It gets better

    Rob Taylor October 1, 2013 at 9:59 am

    Flattie, were IPCC the most corrupt, incompetent and criminal organisation on Earth, the physics driving climate change would not be altered in the slightest.

    We should make these into Christmas Cracker jokes

  19. The BBC betrayed its values by giving Professor Carter this climate platform

    How can letting a geologist appear as a legitimate climate scientist to ridicule the IPCC report be in the public interest?

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/oct/01/bbc-betrayed-values-carter-scorn-ipcc

  20. Dave Frame seems to be doing a sterling job defending the IPCC over at Hot Topic

  21. Really? I wish I had more time for this and I wish Renowden would let me in. But then, I feel nauseous when I venture over there, so Gareth is doing me a favour by keeping the door shut.

  22. Some of the stuff Dave is saying is reasonable, like “no one at the IPCC is claiming uncontrollable warming”.

    However, he was defending the IPCC 2035 Himalayan melting date as a “typo”.
    I think there is a bit more to it than that, but I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt as not everyone has the time to look into this stuff, and Dave seems one of the more reasonable voices in the NZ climate change establishment

  23. The comments on the Guardian article are a bit of a laugh

    I wonder which “values” at the BBC they are referring to? Perhaps the ones that allowed it to be infiltrated by Green activists, or the ones that allowed a culture of child abuse to continue for decades?

  24. Greenpeace are now “leveraging” the arrested activists in Russia:

    Greenpeace protesters interrupted the Champions League match between Basel and Schalke 04 when they dropped down on ropes from the stadium roof and unfurled a banner protesting against tournament sponsors Gazprom.

    The game in Basel, Switzerland, was halted for around five minutes Tuesday (local time) when four protesters wearing orange boiler suits and helmets descended slowly on ropes which they had dropped from the roof after a few minutes of play.

    The banners said “Gazprom, don’t foul the Arctic” and “Free the Arctic 30” and had Greenpeace written at the bottom. The protesters then hauled themselves back onto the roof while officials watched from the touchline and the match continued.

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/9235049/Greenpeace-disrupt-Champions-League-game-in-Basel

  25. Thanks for the link. I have no idea who LPRENT is but they did a good potted summary of AR5. I note that Andy’s argument was not with the article itself but with an interview he heard on the BBC.

  26. I provided various links from the IPCC and I was called a credulous idiot for doing so.
    I have no time for the parasitic vermin that hover around The Standard and Hot Topic.

  27. Lprent is Lynn Prentice who s the founder of The Standard and the worlds greatest sysop.

    Apparently he k is everything about climate science and anyone who disagrees with any aspect whatsoever of the IPCC worldview is a credulous idiot who wil be permanently banned from Tne Boice of The Labour Movement without hesitation.

    Unfortunately for the cretinous Prentice, he didn’t know that the IPCC central estimate for ECS used to np e three degrees, he didn’t know It had been dropped in AR5 SPM despite the fact he just reviewed it, and he didn’t think temperature was a relevant metric when discussing global warming, despite the fac tthat every single discussion about Gil al warming talks about temperature.

    He also, in a previous encounter, claimed that GWP for methane was 72 when the official figure is 21.

    I will repeat this again, for the hard of hearing.

    I have nothing but undiliuted contempt for these people.

  28. stan stendera on October 2, 2013 at 11:16 pm said:

    RichardT. as one who has participated in organizing the estate for what we in the USA call Estate Sales both for relatives and strangers, and who has worked many estate sales as a negotiator with potential buyers I will embolden myself to offer you some advice. Your Aunt Rita is a nonagenarian, apparently of some means if her estate has required so much of your time. At first glance some of the items involved may appear to be of little value but are actually of quite a large value. If you have any doubts consult the best available expert even if you have to pay for the advice. I also frequent estate sales as a buyer and collector. Even the “experts” who evaluate the items for sale frequently don’t know what they are doing. If I had the time and energy (I’m 71) to purchase and market the mistakes I could make a good living buying and selling. For example’ as I type these words I am looking at a signed artist proof of a Roger Tory Peterson print of one of his paintings. Roger Tory Peterson illustrated and wrote the original bird guide. The print is archive framed and matted. I know from the kind of research climate alarmists don’t do that I could easily sell it for $1500 (US). I paid $60 (US) for it. If I lived in New Zealand I would come and offer my assistance. Even without the intimate knowledge of New Zealand I possess of the American South I would probably be of help as would be my soul mate, the beloved Libby. I and I’m sure Libby, an expert herself, would advise you to reflect on what your Aunt great interests were when she was accumulating “stuff”. There frequently lies the real monetary value.

  29. stan stendera on October 2, 2013 at 11:21 pm said:

    Also, I have been checking in here daily looking for new posts. I suspected your absence had something to do with your Aunt’s death. I missed that the discussion was still going on without you. I pledge to participate in that discussion in the future.

  30. Was 15-23 yrs of no warming not enough for you?

    Everyone in Auckland that I’ve asked doesn’t seem to think this winter was the warmest they can remember (including those with greenie leanings), in fact they all seem to think it was bloody cold and the difference between this years electricity bill and last years via the heat pump agrees wholeheartedly – approximately twice the price. Maybe it was just the rest of the country that was so warm.

  31. Richard Christie on October 3, 2013 at 11:01 am said:

    It’s delightful indeed that the conversation continues so well without me.
    RT

    Yes, it has been a real hive of activity. Andy kicking metaphorical cans cans around in the dust and RC talking to himself.

  32. “Russians Start Charging Greenpeace Activists With Piracy”

    These Greenpeace activists are going to be used as an example to the rest of the warming alarmist movement that Russia is serious, from the way this is panning out there will be some activists that get the longer sentences, probably 8 – 10 years, these people will have been specially selected to send a message back to their country of origin, other Green sheep 3 – 5 years.

    The fate of the captain and the Arctic Sunrise is slightly less clear at this time, no charges have so far been brought against him, but if members of his crew are found guilty of piracy then the captain must also be a pirate, and the Arctic Sunrise a pirate ship.

    http://toryaardvark.com/2013/10/02/russians-start-charging-greenpeace-activists-with-piracy/

  33. 10 Pages of IPCC Science Mistakes?

    October 2, 2013 at 1:28 pm

    Political manipulation of a scientific document – or pages upon pages of newly-discovered scientific errors? You decide.

    http://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2013/10/02/10-pages-of-ipcc-science-mistakes/

  34. Dave Frame October 3, 2013 at 9:15 am

    Flatearth2013 wrote: “I think it’s fair to say the IPCC are just making it up as they go. There was not real talk of all the heat disappearing into the ocean until recently.”

    Completely untrue, on both counts.We’ve long known that the oceans take up heat associated with surface warming. The early energy balance papers (Steve Shcneider’s stuff from the late 70s, Hansen’s stuff from 1985, etc etc) make that very clear. In Levitus’s 2000 paper he puts numbers on the heat capacity of the system (effectively). Those are all very consistent with modern arguments about the energy balance.

    It’s pretty clear you’ve never read any of this stuff and and are just making it up to wind people up, and (I suspect) to mislead people visiting this blog that there’s a real debate where there isn’t. Time to do something, Gareth, I think…

    http://hot-topic.co.nz/we-did-it-and-its-going-to-get-worse-but-its-not-yet-too-late-ipcc-ar5-science-report-summary-released/#comment-39061

    Time to do something, Gareth, I think…

    Who calls the shots around here?

  35. SimonP on October 3, 2013 at 11:50 am said:

    You’re both correct, just talking at cross-purposes.
    The GWP over 20 years of methane is 72.
    The GWP over 100 years of methane is 21.

  36. This is true, and I can’t remember the context of the original discussion. My comments have probably been deleted because of “trolling” by quoting the IPCC

    Obviously, the IPCC is a “denier site” and only selected politically correct quotes can be taken from it by the uber-menchen

  37. Incidentally, part of this “discussion” on The Standard had a certain commenter posting my full name (against moderation policy) and without my consent.
    In a previous thread, this person said he would “smear my name far and wide”, also posting my full name

  38. Richard C (NZ) on October 3, 2013 at 5:27 pm said:

    >[Dave Frame] “We’ve long known that the oceans take up heat associated with surface warming”

    Heh, but it wasn’t until the start of the pause c. 2000 that something (what was it?) triggered the ocean to suck all the anthropogenic global warming out of the atmosphere according to the speculation Dave? Or, as Jo Nova puts it “What switched the ocean on?”:

    http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/graphs/temperature/gistemp-1970-2013-artificial-warming-natural-cooling2.gif

    By some undocumented (by the IPCC after 25 years of speculation) process too. So shouldn’t that be “Time to do something, [IPCC], I think…” ?

    >”…there’s a real debate where there isn’t”

    Actually I’m inclined to agree. We can’t debate – or more importantly, critique the process – if there’s no observed (at the interface) air => sea heat transfer of the magnitude required to account for 1950s – 2000s ocean heat accumulation. Neither is there any paper positing the thermodynamic process at the air/sea interface, whether radiative or sensible heat (the IPCC don’t elaborate, see below).

    Dave Frame should read AR5 Chapter 10: Detection and Attribution, 10.4.1 Ocean Temperature and Heat Content, where all he’ll find is (no citation):

    “Air-sea fluxes are the primary mechanism by which the oceans are expected to respond to externally forced anthropogenic and natural volcanic influences”

    Is that statement even debatable?

  39. Richard C (NZ) on October 3, 2013 at 6:19 pm said:

    >”In many cases the alterations were so substantial that the IPCC now says the text of nine of its 14 chapters needs to be re-visited”

    ‘Changes to the Underlying Scientific-Technical Assessment to ensure consistency
    with the approved Summary for Policymakers’

    (Submitted by the Co-Chairs of the IPCC Working Group I)

    http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/P36Doc4_WGI-12_Changes-Underlying-Assessment.pdf

    Thomas Stocker and Qin Dahe are the Co-Chairs of Working Group I.

    So the work of all the lead and contributing authors of the respective nine chapters will be overridden by Stocker and Dahe’s changes. Will the author lists of each chapter reflect this and the changes flagged in the text as revision? I bet not.

    And the summary determines the wording of the chapter apparently e.g. “Change 1979 to 1951”

    The warming in the attribution period actually started 1979, not 1951 i.e. the chapter authors got it right first time. But the summary attribution period of “warming” is 1951 to 2010 even though only 2 of those 6 decades exhibited warming.

    Got to get the meme right.

  40. Richard C (NZ) on October 3, 2013 at 6:51 pm said:

    >”…the summary attribution period of “warming” is 1951 to 2010 even though only 2 of those 6 decades exhibited any warming”

    As per AR5 SPM Figure 1(a):

    http://cdn.thestandard.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/cache/2013/09/IPCC-AR5-Figure-SPM1-a/1137265759.png

    Current decade 2011 to 2013 (2 yrs 5 mths) is cooler on average than 2001 to 2010:

    http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Climate-Bet-Graph_Robin-Pittwood.jpg

    CRU confirms this on page 1 of ‘Global Temperature Record’ by Phil Jones:

    “The first two years of the present decade (2011 and 2012) are cooler than the average for 2001-2010,”

    http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/documents/421974/1295957/Info+sheet+%231.pdf/c612fc7e-babb-463c-b5e3-124ac76680c5

    So where next for the IPCC? Looks like the pause is over but no sign of warming resuming. In fact, a bit of cooling. Given their bumbling efforts to explain the pause, this next episode should be a doozy.

  41. Richard C (NZ) on October 3, 2013 at 7:39 pm said:

    Via Junk Science:

    ‘Let Science Set the Facts’

    By THOMAS LOVEJOY

    “Does the leveling-off of temperatures mean that the climate models used to track them are seriously flawed? Not really. It is important to remember that models are used so that we can understand where the Earth system is headed.”

    Thomas Lovejoy is professor of science and public policy at George Mason University and biodiversity chairman at the H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics and the Environment.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/03/opinion/let-science-set-the-facts.html?_r=1&

  42. Richard C (NZ) on October 3, 2013 at 7:58 pm said:

    Via GWPF:

    ‘Scientists to IPCC: YES, solar quiet spells like the one now looming CAN mean ICE AGES’

    Pesky boffins just refuse to toe the consensus line

    By Lewis Page

    […]

    The current 11-year peak in solar action is the weakest seen for a long time, and it may presage a lengthy quiet period. Previously, historical records suggest that such periods have been accompanied by chilly conditions on Earth – perhaps to the point where a coming minimum might counteract or even render irrelevant humanity’s carbon emissions. The “Little Ice Age” seen from the 15th to the 19th centuries is often mentioned in this context.

    There are certainly plenty of scientists to say, along with the IPCC, that this isn’t so. For instance climate physicist Joanna Haigh has this to say, in tinned quotes offered alongside the AR5 release by the UK’s Science Media Centre:

    “Even if the Sun were to enter a new ‘grand minimum’ state within the next century, [solar variation] would be very unlikely to provide more than a small, temporary, partial compensation for likely anthropogenic warming.”

    And yet the Little Ice Age appears to have affected the climate powerfully. IPCC-leaning scientists, however, say that the Little Ice Age couldn’t have been caused by solar variability – not even solar variability combined with sky-darkening volcanic eruptions – as the effects would have been too weak.

    That school of science would often suggest that the Little Ice Age was actually caused by a sequence of unusually powerful North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) atmospheric phenomena – or, in other words, that it was just a blip: rather like the current 15-year hiatus in global warming

    […]

    A Berne university statement just issued tells us:

    “Bernese climate researchers Flavio Lehner, Andreas Born, Christoph Raible and Thomas Stocker reveal that the Little Ice Age was also able to take its course without the influence of the NAO, driven purely by the consequences of strong and frequent volcanic eruptions at the time, a reduced solar radiation, or both together.”

    >>>>>>>

    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/10/01/scientists_to_ipcc_yes_solar_quiet_spells_like_the_one_now_looming_can_mean_ice_ages/

    Co-author Thomas Stocker is also co-chair of IPCC AR5 WGI.

  43. Stan, your willingness to give expert help warms my heart. But things are going well and we lack for nothing to do the job. Thanks for your participation.

  44. >”…the summary attribution period of “warming” is 1951 to 2010 even though only 2 of those 6 decades exhibited any warming”

    Yes, they need to take it from further back so they can try to say that it’s a trend of at least a 30 yr period. Whereas the ‘pause’ only lasts from 16-23 yrs in length and is insignificant due to it being less than 30 yrs. If we say there has been no warming for 18 yrs (an average of all the temperature records) then that gives us approximately 15 yrs of warming followed by 18 yrs of no warming, which is a pretty crap track record for AGW theory.

    The IPCC are going to expire from their next report, they have no scientific integrity left, and it’s so obvious I doubt even the greenies and their propaganda mouthpieces in the media believe it anymore.

  45. Peter Fraser on October 4, 2013 at 1:16 pm said:

    With regard subjective perceptions of last winter, in the north several aquaintances have commented on it being a long cold winter with a warm patch in the middle. Keri Keri recorded its lowest night time temperature since records started.

  46. hemimck on October 4, 2013 at 1:43 pm said:

    Re Brian Fallows rave in the Herald yesterday:

    “Governments, including ours, have adopted a 2C increase in global mean temperature as the boundary between what is just about tolerable and what is downright dangerous climate change. The IPCC report concludes that to give us a decent (66 per cent) chance of keeping below 2C we need to keep within a budget of 1 trillion tonnes of carbon over the entire industrial era. Put another way, mankind can only dump a cumulative 3670 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide into the climate system as a result of our activities. It sounds like a lot but since the industrial revolution we have already spent about half of that budget. We are spending the rest at a rate of 48 billion tonnes of CO2 a year and rising. On a business-as-usual track we will have blown the carbon budget within about 30 years.”

    The ploy here is to talk in GT’s so that the audience cannot relate to the familiar and far more useful measure of parts per million. By taking this approach the obvious divergence between atmospheric CO2 ppm tends and actual temperature trends can be avoided.

    Taking their last number 48 GT CO2 (13GTC).
    The annual increase in atmospheric CO2 on the current trend line is about 4GTC pa. Extrapolating the current trend means that CO2 would be about 460 ppm in 30 years. The annual usage of fossil fuels averaged about 8GTC pa over the last ten years.

    Their total post industrial budget number is 1000GTC (3670 GT CO2) above.
    The current total CO2 in the atmosphere is around 852 GTC (400ppm), and the pre industrial level was around 600GTC (280ppm). It will reach 1133GTC (460ppm) in thirty years on current extrapolation.

    Ignoring that in thirty years we will will have only used half their post industrial budget, the whole measure is a load of nonsense.

    But we can presumably infer that IPCC are now saying that with another 30 years of status quo, which would take us to 460ppm, will see the tipping point beyond which disaster happens. If that is there position they should state it in terms we can understand – and all have a good laugh.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=11133772&ref=rss

  47. hemimck on October 4, 2013 at 1:55 pm said:

    Correction 460 PPM equates to 980 GTC in thirty years time

  48. It seems odd that they can say that the chance of keeping warming to less than 2 degrees is distant when at the same time the IPCC have reduced the lower bound of ECS to 1.5 degrees and that they no longer have a central estimate

    How can they put probability values on any of these acenarios?

  49. “Climate change and how NZ cities are preparing for it”

    It is likely that Auckland city could experience a rise in average temperatures of between 0.2°C and 2.5°C by 2040, and 0.6°C and 5.8°C by 2090 depending on the earth’s emissions are managed

    Christchurch

    Christchurch’s traumatic recent history has prepared it more than most for the rigours of risk assessment and disaster planning. The Council is expecting climate change to deliver a 50-80 centimetre rise in sea level, a temperature increase of two degrees and changes in rainfall and extreme weather events.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/environment/news/article.cfm?c_id=39&objectid=11135901&ref=rss

    Why are they rebuilding Christchurch if they are expecting a 50-80cm rise in sea level?
    A significant part of the city would be affected.
    Why does Auckland think that temps are “likely” to rise between 0.2°C and 2.5°C by 2040 and Christchurch by 2 degrees?
    Do these guys actually think at all when writing this drivel?

  50. Richard C (NZ) on October 9, 2013 at 9:06 am said:

    >”Do these guys actually think at all when writing this drivel?”

    No.

  51. The author of the Herald piece is Andy Kenworthy who is some kind of professional activist with a background in raising money for NGOs

    http://andykenworthy.com/

  52. Richard C (NZ) on October 9, 2013 at 11:24 am said:

    So according to Wellington Mayor Celia Wade-Brown: “Cities, rather than countries, are taking the lead on climate change issues”

    And from the article:

    Auckland Council has set a target to achieve a 40 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2040, based on 1990 levels.

    According to the Plan: “This will require a transformation from a fossil fuel-dependent, high energy-using, high-waste society to an ‘eco – or liveable – city’. This is typified by sustainable resource use, a quality compact form, an eco-economy, and transport and energy systems that are efficient, maximise renewable resources and minimise reliance on fossil-based transport fuels.”

    # # #

    Wonderful, and starry-eyed. Meanwhile in the rest of the export-driven country, dairy, logs, fruit, steel, and what have you logistics are wholly dependent on fossil-fueled trucking, shipping, and rail (except for a bit of electrified NIMT).

    I suspect that just the fruit export sector alone easily generates more CO2 emissions (which occur globally) and uses more CO2 industrially than all the NZ cities combined. None of which however, are anything near comparable to natural emissions anyway or are capable of any climate effect even regionally.

    Kenworthy’s uncertainty is laughable: “It is likely that Auckland city could experience [blah blah blah]”

    Still, the climate-alarm level has to be raised somehow. It’s been dropping catastrophically, Simon Donner:

    ‘Has the flood of interest in the IPCC and climate change already dissipated?’

    “The release of the IPCC report caused a short surge in public interest about climate change, according the Google Trends search data. Like a river after a flood, the waters have receded. Ten days later, the flood wave has dissipated, and search volume is back to baseline levels for the past year, or what hydrologists would call baseflow levels.”

    http://simondonner.blogspot.ca/2013/10/has-flood-of-interest-in-ipcc-and.html?m=1

  53. Richard C (NZ) on October 9, 2013 at 4:02 pm said:

    ‘Understanding multi-decadal climate changes’

    by Judith Curry

    […]

    JC comments: Well I had a tough time deciding what NOT to include in my excerpts, since all of this is music to my ears. Kudos to the National Taiwan University for hosting this workshop; dare I hope that this topic will be trending for workshops in the U.S. and Europe?

    I do disagree with the following statement however:

    “Disregarding this dynamically induced component of the 20th century warming leads to around a 10% reduction in the inferred global climate sensitivity.”

    I regard this as THE key unknown, and I would not be surprised if it were significantly higher than 10%.

    More of this kind of ‘outside that box’ thinking, please.

    http://judithcurry.com/2013/10/08/understanding-multi-decadal-climate-changes/#more-13213

  54. Richard C (NZ) on October 9, 2013 at 5:16 pm said:

    Down to earth for sure. Eight succinct and powerful paragraphs that every politician should read.

    It’s not as if it would be time consuming – like an IPCC Summary For Policymakers for example.

  55. I thunk one of the more important part of Lindzen’s argument is that the statements that (a) most of the warming of the late 20th C can be attributed to humans and (b) there is no cause for alarm, are consistent

    I’d like to see a “robust” rebuttal of these claims

  56. From my point of view, we should focus on the internal inconsistencies within the establishment/IPCC argument, rather than concern about other theories to explain the few fractions of degrees of warming we have experienced. This seems to be Lindzen’s approach and I find it a little hard to fault

  57. Richard C (NZ) on October 10, 2013 at 9:36 am said:

    In a bumbling, obtuse kind of way, climate science is inching towards the alternative explanations anyway, with a little help from the climate lately. But in doing so the IPCC’s internal inconsistencies are exposed.

    Already AR5 is out of date and there’s some rapid progress lately (although the IPCC wont be trumpeting it) on natural variability; the one major item that is creating the inconsistency along with erroneous estimations of external forcing. So not only is pressure on the IPCC coming from considerable understanding outside climate science, now it’s coming from understanding within too. And yes, there’s not really much need to resort to any other avenues although that’s just a natural progression for more inquiring minds I think.

    The extreme weather meme hasn’t gained traction with the IPCC but they do appear to be tentatively adopting ocean heat as some sort of contingency. Speculation only so it’ll be interesting to see if they go on with it. I saw at the link below where a ∆E of 20 x 10E22 J (the estimated ocean warming) equates to approximately two hundredths of one percent of estimated total ocean heat.

    http://australianclimatemadness.com/2013/10/07/rapid-increase-in-ocean-heat/

    The IPCC can’t keep dining out on their 20th C warming attribution forever if the 21st is not following suit i.e. Lindzen’s a) and b) consistency isn’t that much of an issue IMV because either way, whether human attribution or not, the alarm bells can stop ringing.

  58. Richard C (NZ) on October 10, 2013 at 9:56 am said:

    ‘Carbon Dioxide and the Ocean’

    By Ed Caryl

    “There are two possibilities. If CO2 drives temperature, then temperatures should continue to climb. If it doesn’t, then temperatures will fall, then, shortly, CO2 will fall also. Nature is in the process of demonstrating which is which. We can just watch.”

    http://notrickszone.com/2013/10/08/carbon-dioxide-and-the-ocean-temperature-is-driving-co2-and-not-vice-versa/

  59. “2041: Wellington’s climate departure date”

    Scientists have calculated dates when they say temperatures for cities around the world will be permanently above historical extremes, and for Wellington that year could be 2041.

    The study did not look at any other places in New Zealand, but did do the calculations for several Australian cities, as well as many other centres around the world.

    For Sydney the date could be as early as 2038, for Melbourne it could be 2045, and for Perth and Brisbane 2042.

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/science/9266670/2041-Wellingtons-climate-departure-date

    And all I can see out of my window today is snow in them thar hills. Lots of it.

  60. Thomas Stocker of WG1 is in Wellington, for a stakeholder conference.

    http://hot-topic.co.nz/stocker-in-wellington-rsnz-to-stream-ar5-science-workshop/

    Why is this man in NZ?

  61. Richard C (NZ) on October 10, 2013 at 5:00 pm said:

    >”The data came from 39 earth system models developed by 21 climate centres in 12 countries, the University of Hawaii said.”

    Data?

  62. Richard C (NZ) on October 10, 2013 at 5:22 pm said:

    First Weltwoche, then Lüning – ouch. Also, the Spokesman-Review reports:

    “An old rule says that climate-relevant trends should not be calculated for periods less than around 30 years,” said Thomas Stocker, co-chair of the group that wrote the report.

    [Huh? There was only 20 years of anthro-attributed warming between 1951 and 2010 but apparently that’s a “climate-relevant trend”]

    Many scientists say the purported slowdown reflects random climate fluctuations and an unusually hot year, 1998, picked as a starting point for charting temperatures. Another leading hypothesis is that heat is settling temporarily in the oceans, but that wasn’t included in the summary.

    Stocker said there wasn’t enough literature on “this emerging question.”

    [Been “emerging” for a while, no literature in the last 2 Assessment Reports though]

    http://junkscience.com/2013/09/27/ipcc-report-co-chair-not-enough-literature-on-ocean-ate-my-warming-an-emerging-question/

  63. Never mind, the meeting is for “stakeholders” only, so I am sure questions will be tame and pre-screened, and the lamestream NZ media might timidly ask a question or two of the great man

  64. Asa computer geek, this one from ACM struck a chord

    “FAIL: 34 years and billions of dollars… for what? ”

    http://australianclimatemadness.com/2013/10/10/fail-34-years-and-billions-of-dollars-for-what/

    Describes the evolution of computer technology of the period of the climate scare, vs what climate science actually achieved over the same period

    Not very impressive. Actually, pathetic.

  65. mike jowsey on October 11, 2013 at 1:33 am said:

    Since the data requires a low climate sensitivity and since alarmism requires a large climate sensitivity, the “likely range” of climate sensitivity will remain large until the global warming scare will abate.

    very well put, a good argument. Thanks for the link Andy.

    On another topic (yet on topic regards this post), it seems Climate Conversations is now a red dwarf, due to RT’s diminishing involvement, for good reasons.. I have some transformation ideas, but first I seek agreement that RT, having done a marvelous job over the last 6 or 7 years, needs to either shut down the site (because his work is largely done – alarmists are sooo last century) or transform into the next incarnation. I appreciate a community such as this. Any thoughts?

  66. Richard C (NZ) on October 11, 2013 at 9:03 am said:

    >”alarmists are sooo last century”

    Check out the reactions to Prof. Camilo Mora at Climate Depot today:

    http://www.climatedepot.com/

    My question: why is he smiling?

    Re CCG Mike, I think we’re entering an entertaining phase of climate alarmism so a venue like this to enjoy it is much appreciated. Put another way, can anything beat this?

    ‘The Coming Plague’ — ‘A climate plague affecting every living thing will likely start in 2020 in southern Indonesia, scientists warned Wednesday in the journal Nature’

  67. Richard C (NZ) on October 11, 2013 at 9:11 am said:

    >”can anything beat this?”

    Oh yeah, forgot. Sean Thomas on the future of the British climate:

    “Unprecedentedly, I had direct access to the meteorologists concerned, as I was in Exeter in spirit form, and I managed to speak to the principal actors.

    First, I asked Stephen Belcher, the head of the Met Office Hadley Centre, whether the recent extended winter was related to global warming. Shaking his famous “ghost stick”, and fingering his trademark necklace of sharks’ teeth and mammoth bones, the loin-clothed Belcher blew smoke into a conch, and replied,

    “Here come de heap big warmy. Bigtime warmy warmy. Is big big hot. Plenty big warm burny hot. Hot! Hot hot! But now not hot. Not hot now. De hot come go, come go. Now Is Coldy Coldy. Is ice. Hot den cold. Frreeeezy ice til hot again. Den de rain. It faaaalllll. Make pasty.”

    Startled by this sobering analysis, I moved on to Professor Rowan Sutton, Climate Director of NCAS at the University of Reading…………..”

    https://www.climateconversation.org.nz/open-threads/climate/regions/uk/

  68. Live Stream from Wellington IPCC meeting on now
    http://new.livestream.com/i-filmscience/IPCCworkshop

  69. Questions : Vincent Gray. “There has been no warming for 15 years. Surely this means that the models are wrong”.

  70. Richard C (NZ) on October 11, 2013 at 10:10 am said:

    ‘Climate Models’ Tendency to Simulate Too Much Warming and the IPCC’s Attempt to Cover That Up’

    By Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger and Patrick J. Michaels

    […]

    By not showing all the data, and instead, only that which best supports the narrative the IPCC wishes to spin—that climate models are reliable tools for projecting future climate changes resulting from human emissions of greenhouse gases—the IPCC misleads the public, government entities that defer to the IPCC (such as the EPA and the Supreme Court), and policymakers.

    This has got to stop.

    The IPCC has outlived whatever usefulness it may ever have had. It is time to disband this central climate “authority” and disperse the assessment of climate science to a broader, more diverse community.

    http://www.cato.org/blog/climate-models-tendency-simulate-too-much-warming-ipccs-attempt-cover

  71. I missed Vincent Gray’s question – what was the answer?

  72. The answer was along the lines that 15 years is a short time over the period of post-industrial warming of 150 years, conveniently side-stepping the issue that the IPCC only attribute CO2 warming to post 1950

    Stocker did say that “the pause” was a topic of much research, and Dave Frame worked on the chapter on “the pause”.

    Dave Frame also trashed the 350.org campaign during questions, by stating that the 350 figure is based on a CS value of 6 degrees which is not supported by IPCC science

  73. Richard C (NZ) on October 11, 2013 at 12:40 pm said:

    Also conveniently ignores that emissions rise was small over the first 100 years of that 150 years but the rise over the last 15 years has been dramatic:

    http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/graphics/global.total.jpg

  74. Mike Jowsey on October 11, 2013 at 12:53 pm said:

    Brilliant – laugh! Had to read it out loud to my wife..

  75. They have wrapped it up now. Peter Barrett (?) at the end describes the work of the IPCC as one of the greatest intellectual achievements of mankind.

    Altogether a wonderful group hug for the warmist community

  76. There were also comments about coal and fracking. William Rolleston (Fed Farmers) made some good points I thought. Rod Oram was being his usual self, that we shouldn’t be exploring for oil because it is unlikely to be economic, and we shouldn’t be fracking. We should be (according to him) burning trees because the ETS (or lack of it) has made forestry not worthwhile

  77. Off topic but … I was looking at the sea level rises in 2 reports from the Aussie govt. One (2011) says that the sea level is rising 7mm/yr (7.6.6 Sea Level, pg. 118):

    http://www.pacificclimatechangescience.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/PCCSP_Vol2_Ch7_Marshallislands.pdf

    And the other (2010) says that it’s rising 3.8 mm/yr in the executive summary on page 2:

    http://www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO60025/IDO60025.2010.pdf

    Which is correct, the satellite data or the SEAFRAME data?

    And then there’s the graph on pg 125 (7.9a) that seems to say that they’re both the same. (edited)

    http://www.pacificclimatechangescience.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/PCCSP_Vol2_Ch7_Marshallislands.pdf

  78. Magoo – not sure but Tim Naish said emphatically at the IPCC briefing just now that sea level rise is accelerating

  79. Bit of a chuckle at this from the COP19 blog from Poland, though the orginal seems to have been taken down for offending some people

    The blogpost, published this week on the Polish site for November’s Warsaw meeting, said that not only would melting ice allow ships to cut their journey times by taking the north-west passage, but “we may also build new drilling platforms and retrieve natural resources hidden below the sea bed”.

    It added that there was also the possibility of, “Chasing the pirates, terrorists and ecologists that will come to hang around …”

    http://toryaardvark.com/2013/10/11/cop19-hosts-poland-melting-arctic-ice-offers-new-opportunities-for-drilling-chasing-pirates-terrorists-ecologists/

    and more on the COP blog

    Dear Readers,

    For the time being we decided to take some time away from our blog. Our idea was to focus attention on important issues that need good solutions and spark discussions on those. We did not foresee that some readers would take thepresented texts literally as the official Polish position. Notwithstanding we would like to express regret as some of you found the text to be inappropriate. We acknowledge these criticisms. It was certainly not our aim to offend anybody.

    We will take due care that all new articles and posts on this website are written in a clear and sensitive manner so as to avoid misunderstandings. Stay tuned for more ideas.

    http://www.cop19.gov.pl/cop19-blog

  80. Richard C (NZ) on October 11, 2013 at 1:53 pm said:

    >”Altogether a wonderful group hug for the warmist community”

    Yes, group hug was exactly the thought that went through my mind.

  81. Tim Naish also hauled out the old Hockey Stick complete with temp record spliced onto the paleo data. It was just a great nostalgic moment, sort of “The Best of the IPCC – The boxed set”.

  82. Richard C (NZ) on October 11, 2013 at 3:15 pm said:

    >”Which is correct, the satellite data or the SEAFRAME data?”

    Magoo, 7.9a on pg 125 (3rd link) does show (by eye) the shorter satellite trend to be much steeper than the 4 non-SEAFRAME tide guages, even over the common period. Also it would appear that 1993 was an unfortunate start date for both the Majuro SEAFRAME tide guage and the satellites going by that graph.

    From the pg 2 summary (2nd link):

    ● A SEAFRAME gauge was installed in Majuro, Marshall Islands, in May 1993. It records sea level, air and water temperature, atmospheric pressure, wind speed and direction. It is one of an array designed to monitor changes in sea level and climate in the Pacific.

    ● The sea level trend to date is +4.3 mm/year but the magnitude of the trend continues to vary widely from month to month as the data set grows. Accounting for the precise levelling results and inverted barometric pressure effect, the trend is +3.8 mm/year. Nearby gauges, with longer records but less precision and datum control, show trends of +2.3, +1.3, and +1.7 mm/year.

    From 7.6.6 Sea Level, pg. 118 (1st link):

    The sea-level rise near the Marshall Islands measured by satellite altimeters (Figure 7.5) since 1993 is about 0.3 inches (7 mm) per year, more than the global average of 0.125 ± 0.015 inches (3.2 ± 0.4 mm) per year. This rise is partly linked to a pattern related to climate variability from year to year and decade to decade (Figure 7.9).

    # # #

    So,
    7.9a is 4 tide guages (not SEAFRAME) going back to 1950.
    Pg 2 summary is a SEAFRAME gauge installed in Majuro, Marshall Islands, in 1993 and the trend “continues to vary widely from month to month as the data set grows”.
    7.6.6 is satellite altimeter “near” [not “at” note] Marshall Islands since 1993.

    In the tropical west Pacific a 7 mm per year trend is not unusual in either tide guages or satellites so neither is correct or wrong i.e. you don’t have to move very far from a specific location to obtain an entirely different trend. However, given the work (precision and datum control) that has gone into the SEAFRAME array then they will be reliable for each specific SEAFRAME location. The satellites are calibrated with surface but not necessarily with Majuro for example.

    But all that is the western tropical Pacific. Take a look at Figure 7.5: The regional distribution of the rate of sea-level rise measured by satellite altimeters from January 1993 to December 2010, with the location of the Marshall Islands indicated, on pg 119:

    http://www.pacificclimatechangescience.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/PCCSP_Vol2_Ch7_Marshallislands.pdf

    Even at 150/160 degrees West (i.e. still western Pacific), the 1993 – 2010 trend is around 0 mm/year. The AVISO Mean Sea Level rise page provides the entire Pacific (and globe):

    http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/fileadmin/images/news/indic/msl/MSL_Map_MERGED_Global_IB_RWT_NoGIA_Adjust.gif

    No SLR trend (in fact a fall over vast areas) in the eastern tropical Pacific for the last 21 years i.e. SLR is NOT a global phenomenon. The global metric is skewed by the western tropical Pacific west of Marshall Islands.

  83. Wow, you’re on the money, Mike! Impressive.

    I thought this morning that your comments are without doubt perspicacious, for my intention is and has been for some time to produce a forum to range over all human affairs. I’ll start a thread for it. Perhaps “A Conversational Climate”? Or “Climate of Conversation”?

  84. Cheers Richard.

  85. Here is actual live footage of the Sean Thomas and Stephen Belcher meeting. Note the overwhelming evidence for global warming in the background in the form of hellfire smoke, although it might be the computers overheating from the climate models malfunctioning.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUM7XHTPe_w

  86. Richard C (NZ) on October 11, 2013 at 7:29 pm said:

    >”a forum to range over all human affairs”

    The Aussies have to contend with this ABC “dive into the sewer” (via JN):

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/column_time_for_a_cleansing_of_the_abc/

    One hopes that the “Climate of Conversation” on this side of the Tasman remains free of that brand of sordidness. Either that or the forum doesn’t quite range over ALL human affairs perhaps.

    On the other hand, but unfortunately, maybe that’s exactly the type of topic on which to converse?

  87. Richard C (NZ) on October 11, 2013 at 7:31 pm said:

    The IPCC need to dump their PR consultants and get this guy.

  88. Mike Jowsey on October 11, 2013 at 11:58 pm said:

    Excellent! I like either title. I like the thought that we can start to discuss the many other aspects of this marvelous planet and the people thereon. Although weather and climate are fascinating, and have fascinated many of us for many years, there are lots of interesting things to converse about. The Fukushima incident, the future of global finances, imperialism and war, people smuggling, history of the Middle East…. I might go on, but I’m sure others have plenty of other interesting topics they might like to list…?

  89. I would have thought that the climate change agenda was just starting to get interesting, personally

  90. Mike Jowsey on October 12, 2013 at 1:22 pm said:

    It’s always been interesting Andy. Not detracting from it at all, but my attitude to the debate is simply that they’ve had 30 years to convince the world of impending doom, and have clearly failed to do so. Why? Because the evidence is not strong, to be charitable.

    So now it’s time to focus on things that actually matter in the world, and tell the warmists to talk to the hand. The hard-core warmist will never be swayed from his zealotry, so debate with him is futile. Absolutely futile. If it has been cooling for 100 years, he will not be swayed.

    Anyway, I’m off to mow the lawn – bloody thing has started growing like crazy. Must be all that plant fertiliser floating about.

  91. Mike, the issue I have is that whatever the science says and whatever the climate does, the political machine is still in full “steam ahead” mode

    This feature was describes as “regulatory overhang” in Booker and North’s book “Scared to Death”, which I am currently reading, and describes the scare phenomenon – including the big UK scares of Foot and Mouth , Listeria eta. These all got overhyped and cost the country dearly. The same is happening with climate change hysteria

    Despite no warming for 15 years, there still seems to be a sense of massive urgency that we need do “do something” to reduce emissions. I was watching the IPCC live stream on Friday from the RSNZ and I got no sense that alarm had diminished. There was talk of tipping points, the IPCC being too conservative, etc etc.

    The one sceptical question came from Vince Gray who pointed out the lack of warming for 15 years. This was greeting with chuckles and the usual waffle

    There were a few people talking of “the elephant in the room”. I forlornly hoped that the elephant might be the lack of warming and all the recent papers pointing to low climate sensitivity, but no, the elephants were all bigger than that and they were all scary

    The problem, I see, is that the powers that be, the political elite or whatever, seem to have adopted this nihilistic view of humanity that will confine us to serfdom and poverty, apparently “for our own good”

    This is quite clearly demonstrated in the UK’s sky rocketing electricity prices. Most of this is a direct result of green energy policies

    So, the question is much bigger than climate, or weather. It is how do we deal with this modern disease that sees humanity as the enemy of the planet, a form of “disease”.

    I personally feel optimistic that human ingenuity can rise to any challenge, but this is not the message we get in our education and political systems.

    How do we deal with this, is the “elephant in the room”

  92. Richard C (NZ) on October 12, 2013 at 6:56 pm said:
  93. Yes really, this kind of stuff does my head in

    I spend my day job kicking tyres and finding problems and resolving them. When I apply the same methodology to “climate change”, i get accused of being a “science denier”

    How did we get here?

  94. Mike Jowsey on October 14, 2013 at 8:57 am said:

    This is quite clearly demonstrated in the UK’s sky rocketing electricity prices. Most of this is a direct result of green energy policies

    http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/business/miliband-unveils-first-energy-price-increase-2013101080226

  95. Mike –

    Martin Bishop, professor of gesture politics at Roehampton University, said:…

    brilliant!

  96. Regarding the issue I mentioned about the glaring difference between the sea level trends of the satellite data and SEAFRAME tidal gauges, I came across this interesting titbit from Steve Goddard about how the error margins cancel out the sea level rises in the satellite data and how the error graphs have been hidden:

    http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/10/11/shock-news-satellite-sea-level-error-is-100-of-the-trend/

    and:

    http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/10/11/more-on-the-satellite-sea-level-fraud/

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