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Andy
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Andy

Tom Wigley says Naomi Oreskes’ work is ‘useless’

Merchants of Doubt author Naomi Oreskes claimed in a 2004 study that 75% of published studies supported “the consensus” while the remainder expressed no view.

###

date: Thu, 12 Nov 2009 14:16:40 -0700
from: Tom Wigley
subject: Re: [Fwd: Your Submission]
to: Phil Jones

Phil,

This is weird. I used Web of Knowledge, “create citation report”, and
added 1999 thru 2009 numbers. Can’t do you becoz of the too many PDJs
problem.

Here are 3 results …

Kevin Trenberth, 9049
Me, 5523
Ben, 2407

The max on their list has only 3365 cites over this period.

Analyses like these by people who don’t know the field are useless.
A good example is Naomi Oreskes work.

Tom.

http://junkscience.com/2013/03/13/climategate-3-0-tom-wigley-says-naomi-oreskes-work-is-useless/

Alexander K
Guest
Alexander K

My mind is still boggled by the volume of info available, much of which must be thrusting the Hockey Team into full defence/defiance mode!
Mr FOIA is obviously a very brave and moral person, but wait for the hate that will be dumped on him by the denizens of blogs such as that awful local Hot Thingy.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

From the language, certainly not Anglo-Saxon… or British.

Mar 13, 2013 at 3:53 PM | Unregistered CommenterJiminy Cricket [BH]

Andy
Guest
Andy

Tom Fuller –

I don’t want to get all meta and ironical and stuff, but am I the only one who finds it amusing that the same week a brand new and improved Hockey Stick chart gets inflicted on us all that we are also inundated with 200,000 Climategate emails?

Next thing you know some former vice president will get caught with his hands on a masseuse and a respected scientist will be busted for faking the strategy documents of some heartless lobbying group.

I’d paw through the emails myself but I already had 1,273 unread messages in my inbox.

And I’d get a bit snarky about Marcotte et al but why bother when McIntyre is probably going to unload on it any day now–unless he gets trapped inside those emails…

Let me know how it all turns out, okay? I’m going to bed.


http://thelukewarmersway.wordpress.com/2013/03/13/will-the-circle-be-unbroken-by-and-by-lord-by-and-by/

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”a brand new and improved Hockey Stick”

An anatomy of a bogus hockey stick

For this example, the non-hockey stick Central England Temperature (CET) dataset will be used to create an imaginary hockey stick of CET temperatures, similar looking to the one presented by the Marcott et al. study.

http://www.c3headlines.com/2013/03/anatomy-unprecedented-global-warming-bogus-hockey-stick-faux-science.html

# High resolution annual temperature data was then spliced to the low resolution data (remember, the 100-year average of monthly observations)

# Then the built-in Excel averaging tool was applied to the entire spliced dataset

# Voila, the needed very scary, spiked blade is produced and seamlessly “attached” to the smoothie-handle

Mike Jowsey
Guest
Mike Jowsey

That’s right; no conspiracy, no paid hackers, no Big Oil. The Republicans didn’t plot this. USA politics is alien to me, neither am I from the UK. There is life outside the Anglo-American sphere.

Could he be a kiwi?

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”Could he be a kiwi?”

I don’t think so Mike. I’m guessing a Unix-for-life guy (\) in his 50s (i.e. not the “hacker” type) from the ex-Soviet bloc where DOS PCs wouldn’t have been prevalent (I’m guessing). Went IT contracting in England when the wall came down.

John Robertson
Guest
John Robertson

FOIA expresses concern that the password be limited access, to avoid accidental harm to parties named in these emails and family members of the team.
Why?
FOIA, gave them two chances to back away from their deceit and come clean.
Did they?
These people, this key group, have enabled the biggest swindle in our lifetime, the harm they are complicit in,is incomprehensibly vast compared to any fallout for their loved ones.
All of these individuals had the same ethical decision that FOIA faced, they chose.
So why should anyone have concern for possible hurt feeling amongst their loved ones?
Their allies have been quite explicit in what they wish for ours.

Andy
Guest
Andy

There may be potentially sensitive commercial information not paid for by taxes.
I imagine, other than pure altruism, fOIA may be covering himself from lawsuits.

The speculation over at WUWT is at fever pitch. Lewandowsky and Cook are probably writing another recursive paper as we speak.

Mike Jowsey
Guest
Mike Jowsey

yes, reading comments at WUWT I would agree some European or Baltic origin is more likely. Some comments express the fear that Mr.FOIA has given too much away. triangulation of country, timeframe and other clues may pinpoint his identity. Which revelation might have various results, but would be a smokescreen for the Team to hide behind.

Interesting times.

Andy
Guest
Andy

Interesting times indeed. The Hidden War, it has been described, because 99% of the world don’t know or don’t care about it, yet so much is at stake for everyone.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”European or Baltic origin is more likely”

I’ll go with Czech, Slovak or e-Stonian and leave it at that.

He certainly executed the release magnificently whoever he is and great to have his perspective. Given the extended winter in Europe right now (to say the least) he probably thought offloading was best before the whole scare implodes completely.

Andy
Guest
Andy

Not much reaction from Warm-o-land, but Mike@WatchingTheDeniers (Aussie) has put his head above the parapet

http://watchingthedeniers.wordpress.com/2013/03/14/ho-hum-more-climategate-chum-sceptics-flogging-the-climategate-dead-horse-again/

David
Guest
David

I would wager “Mr FOIA” is a woman.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Curry:-

“Mike’s Nature trick seems to be now a standard practice in paleo reconstructions”

http://judithcurry.com/2013/03/11/lets-play-hockey-again/

Andy
Guest
Andy

Reading suyts space (hockey stick debunkers linked from JC above) leads to this gem:

http://suyts.wordpress.com/the-scientifically-illiterate-demonstrate-their-stupidity-again/

Good for a Friday chuckle

David
Guest
David

ralfellis says:
March 13, 2013 at 8:34 am
Spasiba Svetlana for releasing the key. Paka.

Just noticed this comment on the WUWT thread.. Its pretty well established that most woman use mens names as nom de plumes when blogging.

Mike Jowsey
Guest
Mike Jowsey

Oh no!!! Not the poor trees! It’s worse than we thought!

Andy
Guest
Andy

Climate Audit also has a post on Marcott. The PhD thesis had no uptick, yet the paper in Science did. Quite clear from the graphs

http://climateaudit.org/2013/03/14/no-uptick-in-marcott-thesis/

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

“I am sure our Minister for the Environment, Simon Upton will like it, as he was getting frustrated at the industry lobbey, and the pro-industry press in NZ.” The e-mail is below. ### cc: n.nicholls@bom.gov.au, m.manning@niwa.cri.nz date: Fri, 28 Nov 1997 07:11:46 +1300 from: j.salinger@niwa.cri.nz (Jim Salinger) subject: TV Stars!! to: ckfolland@meto.gov.uk, p.jones@uea.ac.uk, m.hulme@uea.ac.uk Dear Chris, Phil and Mike I see you are now competing with Neville, except none of you were labelled the ‘father of global warming’. Well done – the NZ media is running hot, and it was nice to see you all on BBC World at 6 am this morning, as the lead story “British Scientists are about to announce that 1997 is on course to be the warmest year on record” and that “a change in climate is happening”. I liked Chris showing curves of warming in the South Pacific, and Mike you looked very much like the Pope making very authoritive pronouncements! We have re- released the material this morning, and it is now the No 1 item on Radio New Zealand news. This is very refreshing after all the recycled bunkem the skeptics have been putting out… Read more »

Alexander K
Guest
Alexander K

I have just read this; Steve’s sense of humour is so, so dry, and the idiots supporting Marcott just keep digging themselves deeper holes!
🙂

Warwick Hughes
Guest
Warwick Hughes

I have just posted on the New Zealand drought – with a graphic. Hoping somebody here has something better.
Rainfall history to help see the New Zealand drought in perspective
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=2155

So many Gems emerging in CG3 – wow 45° in Oz – end of life as we knew it.

Andy
Guest
Andy

Bishop Hill has a good roundup on Marcott et al
http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2013/3/15/marcott-in-freefall.html

Andy
Guest
Andy

It does seem to me that Marcott et al is a much bigger issue than anything coming out of the rather old GC3 emails

In particular, nothing at all has changed with regard to “The Cause” and the kind of fluff that gets published in Science of Nature

Andy
Guest
Andy

McIntyre’s latest on Marcott is pretty eye watering

http://climateaudit.org/2013/03/16/the-marcott-shakun-dating-service/

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”It does seem to me that Marcott et al is a much bigger issue than anything coming out of the rather old GC3 emails”

Yes, although looks like a new generation have taken up where the ‘gaters left off.

Where to start with Marcott, Shakun, Clark and Mix? A retraction wont be the end of it, we’ll need a much stronger term than “gergised”. How did it survive peer review? Will a published-date paper be published?

How can they all (including Science) be so naive?

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”McIntyre’s latest on Marcott is pretty eye watering”

For the eyes, this picture.

For the mind, “re-dating”.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Steve M:-

“I will return to details of the uptick later. For now, I’ll close with this graphic showing the NHX and SHX reconstructions against the GLB reconstruction shown as the Marcott base. While one expects a difference between NHX and SHX in the Holocene, the remarkable difference between NHX and SHX not just in the 20th century, but in the 19th century is a source of considerable interest. According to Marcott, NHX temperatures increased by 1.9 deg C between 1920 and 1940, a surprising result even for the most zealous activists. But for the rest of us, given the apparent resiliency of our species to this fantastic increase over a mere 20 years, it surely must provide a small measure of hope for resiliency in the future.”

http://climateaudit.org/2013/03/15/marcotts-zonal-reconstructions/

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Climategate 3.0: MetOffice rebukes UEA for claiming global warming causes extreme weather

http://junkscience.com/2013/03/16/climategate-3-0-metoffice-rebukes-uea-for-claiming-global-warming-causes-extreme-weather/

Climategate 3.0: ‘I believe that the recent warmth was probably matched about 1000 years ago’

http://junkscience.com/2013/03/16/climategate-3-0-i-believe-that-the-recent-warmth-was-probably-matched-about-1000-years-ago/

Climategate 3.0: Mann — Internet is the ‘downside of absolute freedom of dissemination’

http://junkscience.com/2013/03/16/climategate-3-0-mann-internet-is-the-downside-of-absolute-freedom-of-dissemination/

Climategate 3.0: Climategater to World Bank – Economic damage estimates from global warming should be ‘treated very skeptically’; ‘Our methodology is so flaky’

http://junkscience.com/2013/03/16/climategate-3-0-climategater-to-world-bank-economic-damage-estimates-from-global-warming-should-be-treated-very-skeptically-our-methodology-is-so-flaky/

Andy
Guest
Andy
Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Climategate 3.0: Mann to Revkin — ‘McIntyre and McKitrick paper is pure scientific fraud’

http://junkscience.com/2013/03/17/climategate-3-0-mann-to-revkin-mcintyre-and-mckitrick-paper-is-pure-scientific-fraud/

Climategate 3.0: Phil Jones tries and fails to have skeptic Dick Lindzen’s comments removed from draft IPCC chapter

http://junkscience.com/2013/03/17/climategate-3-0-phil-jones-tries-and-fails-to-have-skeptic-dick-lindzens-comments-removed-from-draft-ipcc-chapter/

Andy
Guest
Andy

Mike’s nature trick seems to pass muster at Hot topic too

here’s the big picture: temperatures through the last ice age stitched on to Marcott et al’s Holocene reconstruction, with what we expect to happen over the next century pasted on to the end. If that looks like a brick wall we’re about to run into, then you’re probably right.

http://hot-topic.co.nz/don-easterbrook-is-a-zombie/

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Wouldn’t look nearly as exiting if, even using Mike’s trick that is apparently normal procedure for this exercise:-

http://i0.wp.com/hot-topic.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/shakun_marcott_hadcrut4_a1b.gif?zoom=1.5&resize=480%2C381

instead of AIB, Hagelaars and Verheggen “pasted on” a projection of the current trajectory of HadCRUT4 from a point corresponding to the end of alkanone “Original Dating” from Steve M here:-

http://climateaudit.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/alkenone-comparison1.png?w=900&h=720

But we know they would never do that. I’m wondering, have Marcott et al unwittingly pulled the rug out from under Mann et al?

Or is this something everyone else knows but I’m a bit slow to tumble to? It seems like stating the obvious but I haven’t seen it highlighted by anyone anywhere.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

I’ve wondered this from the time Steve M posted the Marcott trick but didn’t want to appear slow by saying anything.

Warwick Hughes
Guest
Warwick Hughes

Just added century long rain history charts for Waiuku, Ruakura and Napier
Rainfall history to help see the New Zealand drought in perspective
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=2155
Hard to see the current dry period as exceptional.

Simon
Guest
Simon

The conspiracy theorists have turned on Anthony Watts because he won’t release the password 🙂

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Watts has turned on the conspirators:-

‘People send me stuff. Word has it that Michael Mann was one of the reviewers of Marcott et al.’

https://www.climateconversation.org.nz/2013/03/climategate-3-open-thread/?replytocom=180982#respond

🙂

Andy
Guest
Andy

Warwick’s work needs a wider audience I feel, given the propaganda from Renwick et al over the last few days

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)
Andy
Guest
Andy

As Richard Tol says in tweets, “I would be surprised if he wasn’t”

The paleo community is pretty small (as we know from CG1)

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

“The conspiracy theorists” appear to be one “dp” from looking at the bottom of the thread – any others?

What exactly is your theory of what dp’s conspiracy theory actually is Simon?

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