Climate system as heat engine

Here’s an interesting reflection on the climate system which at a stroke highlights the complexity of climate and puts to one side (at least for a moment) the belief that it must have a single controller, such as a minor atmospheric gas.

Dr Vincent Gray explained today:

The idea that the Earth has a “radiation budget” is inherently wrong.

The climate is a heat engine. The energy comes in from the sun. The exhaust goes out to space.

The exhaust must be less than the input because in between some work must be done. This would include maintenance of all living creatures plus erosion and other changes in the surface.

A scientist comments that the concept of a budget is both sound and useful, even if not strictly applicable all of the time. The energy budget approach is at the heart of modern climatology and is not controversial.

I wonder if any papers have addressed the total work done by the climate system? Maybe this one:

The second law of thermodynamics and the global climate system: A review of the maximum entropy production principle, 2003, by Ozawa et al., available (behind a paywall) at the Wiley Online Library.

The long-term mean properties of the global climate system and those of turbulent fluid systems are reviewed from a thermodynamic viewpoint. Two general expressions are derived for a rate of entropy production due to thermal and viscous dissipation (turbulent dissipation) in a fluid system. It is shown with these expressions that maximum entropy production in the Earth’s climate system suggested by Paltridge, as well as maximum transport properties of heat or momentum in a turbulent system suggested by Malkus and Busse, correspond to a state in which the rate of entropy production due to the turbulent dissipation is at a maximum. Entropy production due to absorption of solar radiation in the climate system is found to be irrelevant to the maximized properties associated with turbulence. The hypothesis of maximum entropy production also seems to be applicable to the planetary atmospheres of Mars and Titan and perhaps to mantle convection. Lorenz’s conjecture on maximum generation of available potential energy is shown to be akin to this hypothesis with a few minor approximations. A possible mechanism by which turbulent fluid systems adjust themselves to the states of maximum entropy production is presented as a self-feedback mechanism for the generation of available potential energy. These results tend to support the hypothesis of maximum entropy production that underlies a wide variety of nonlinear fluid systems, including our planet as well as other planets and stars.

Perhaps someone knowledgeable in thermodynamics might comment?

The main point is that, from the perspective of a complex heat engine, it’s mighty hard to claim the entire gargantuan system is controlled by a single factor — much less a greenhouse gas capable of a mild warming.

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Nick
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Nick

Is Dr Vincent Grey suggesting that doing work somehow destroys energy?

Or that this work done is somehow storing energy somewhere on our planet? Did he mention where exactly?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservation_of_energy

Andy
Guest

Storing energy in lifeforms would be one example

Richard Treadgold
Guest

Nick,
Not “destroys” energy, he’s a scientist. He mentioned that energy is stored all over the place — behind dams, in living things and in oil and coal, for example. Also, energy moves things like air, rocks and water, achieves chemical changes and damages or erodes things. Someone else observed that we remove electrical energy from generators and solar panels, also provided by the sun.

Warwick Hughes
Guest
Warwick Hughes

Greeting Kiwis and the very best for 2013.

IPCC says Maori are not equally represented politically – is climate change a “hot topic” around the iwi and Maori society in general ?
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=1991

Nick
Guest
Nick

Do you have a reference to show that the total energy stored in life forms is increasing?

Andy
Guest

No, but did anyone say that it was?

Nick
Guest
Nick

If energy out is less than energy in then the difference must be accumulating somewhere. If not in life forms then where?

Nick
Guest
Nick

Energy is stored in lots of places, sure. But Dr Gray appears to imply that it must be accumulating. I would like to know where exactly. Certainly not in oil or coal as you seem to suggest.

Andy
Guest

The total number of humans on the planet is increasing.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”But Dr Gray appears to imply that it must be accumulating. I would like to know where exactly.”

The oceanic heat sink is the greatest accumulation of energy by far Nick. Even SkS understands that:-

http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics/Total_Heat_Content_2011_med.jpg

Also see Dr David Stockwell’s Accumulation Theory:-

“…the 20th century temperature rise can be explained by the accumulation of an above average solar forcing of 0.1 W/m2 in the ocean over the period”

http://vixra.org/pdf/1108.0004v1.pdf

Something the IPCC solar “experts” (Joanna Haigh et al) haven’t a clue about as evidenced by their responses to Alec Rawls (solar activity levels – Maunder grand minimum vs recent grand maximum, not the GCR argument).

More pertinent excerpts from the Stockwell paper here:-

https://www.climateconversation.org.nz/2012/12/what-drives-climate-change/#comment-160982

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”If not in life forms then where?”

In the ocean. See this comment above:-

https://www.climateconversation.org.nz/2012/12/what-drives-climate-change/#comment-160982

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”IPCC says Maori are not equally represented politically”

Huh? Equal to NZ Europeans? NZ Pacific Islanders? NZ Chinese? NZ South Africans? Who?

The IPCC should acquaint themselves with the Treaty of Waitangi (Maori have sovereignty over NZ, the Crown has the right to govern) and say, the Maori Party. Even if every Maori voted Maori Party (they don’t), they could never be represented “equally” because their numbers are not equal to non-Maori. They vote in a democracy like everyone else but not necessarily as a block.

>”…is climate change a “hot topic” around the iwi and Maori society in general ?”

Don’t think so. They’re focussed on Treaty reparations and Court actions to determine what rights they may be able to claim e.g. ownership of hydro water should the govt sell – as they propose to – state owned electricity generators that have hydro assets.

I’m wondering, if they’re successful, could they then be sued for hydro water shortages or hydro river flooding for example. I suspect climate change would become a hot topic very quickly in that case.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

From Stockwell’s paper:- “Natural and modeled systems contain a mix of fast and slow equilibrating components. They have a crucial di fference. If fast, then continued forcing at the same average level does not cause any additional warming; forcing is directly related to response. If slow, constant high levels can cause ongoing warming until equilibrium is reached. In the slow case, the forcing cannot be directly related to the response….” Haigh and other Rawls detractors demand a fast response citing the divergence of TSI and temperture e.g. SkS here:- ‘Solar activity & climate: is the sun causing global warming?’ – “What the science says…” [according to SkS] http://www.skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming.htm Note the preference for PMOD TSI (down trending) over other similar TSI composite estimates e.g. ACRIM (up trend) or IRMB (flat). That these composites are cobbled together from disparate satellite platforms and include the ACRIM I/II “gap” (Challenger disaster) escapes their notice. Solar satellites and TSI composites graphed here:- http://www.pmodwrc.ch/tsi/composite/pics/org_comp2_d41_62_1210a.png I don’t think anyone viewing those plots can honestly say PMOD (or ACRIM or IRMB) is definitive. Given there’s something like 130 years of solar energy accumulation in the ocean, they (the detractors) might ask themselves… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”I wonder if any papers have addressed the total work done by the climate system?”

Here’s a pdf copied from a book I think:-

GLOBAL SCALE CLIMATE PROCESSES AND CLIMATE SENSITIVITY

Peter H. Stone, MIT

http://eaps4.mit.edu/research/papers/Veneto1997_p47.pdf

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Lecture series turns out. Doesn’t say much about work done except to account for it in the Atmospheric Heat Balance (page 2).

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”I wonder if any papers have addressed the total work done by the climate system?”

Not total but here’s one on mechanical work done by wind:-

‘Climatic variations of the work done by the wind on the ocean’s general circulation’

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012JC008135/abstract

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”I wonder if any papers have addressed the total work done by the climate system?” Here we go:- Entropy Budget of an Atmosphere in Radiative–Convective Equilibrium. Part I: Maximum Work and Frictional Dissipation OLIVIER PAULUIS* Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey ISAAC M. HELD NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey (Manuscript received 12 September 2000, in final form 19 June 2001) ABSTRACT The entropy budget of an atmosphere in radiative–convective equilibrium is analyzed here. The differential heating of the atmosphere, resulting from surface heat fluxes and tropospheric radiative cooling, corresponds to a net entropy sink. In statistical equilibrium, this entropy sink is balanced by the entropy production due to various irreversible processes such as frictional dissipation, diffusion of heat, diffusion of water vapor, and irreversible phase changes. Determining the relative contribution of each individual irreversible process to the entropy budget can provide important information on the behavior of convection. The entropy budget of numerical simulations with a cloud ensemble model is discussed. In these simulations, it is found that the dominant irreversible entropy source is associated with irreversible phase changes and diffusion of water vapor. In… Read more »

Richard Treadgold
Guest

Nick,

If energy out is less than energy in then the difference must be accumulating somewhere. If not in life forms then where?

No. Work is also done. Water is lifted several thousand feet, photosynthesis occurs, muscles turn sugars into movement and strain, and proteins form new bones, tissue, wood, hair and skin. Energy is not necessarily stored anywhere.

Richard Treadgold
Guest

Great work, RC. For tirelessness you rival the Energiser bunny.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”I wonder if any papers have addressed the total work done by the climate system?”

Looks like climate “system” can refer to total planetary system (including geo) or just atmosphere and components of atmosphere (wind) or just ocean and components of ocean (I’m guessing), depending on the particular research.

A study of “total” work done would be an exhaustive treatise in that case I suspect. That’s not to say it hasn’t been done but that if it has I haven’t found it.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

See below a few comments RT. That paper above is just for an atmosphere system (not including ocean or geo). “Total” work done would look at a system including the ocean, sun and geo mechanisms, in which case the paper you referenced (Ozawa et al) is the more useful. The pdf of Ozawa et al is here:- http://www.knmi.nl/~laagland/cursus/presentaties_voorjaar12/Ozawa.pdf From page 3:- [7] Despite the seeming plausibility of the maximum entropy production (MEP) hypothesis and its potential importance to a wide variety of nonlinear systems including our planet, as far as we know, there is no review paper on this subject. We shall therefore start this paper with a definition of thermodynamic entropy so that a nonspecialist can follow the basic concepts in this subject (section 2). Then we shall see how the MEP hypothesis can explain the mean properties of various kinds of fluid systems, e.g., the Earths climate (section 3), climates on other planets (section 4), mantle convection (section 5), and transport properties of turbulence (section 6). In section 7 we shall discuss conditions to be satisfied for fully developed turbulence, i.e., stability criteria for turbulence and time constants of the fluid… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

The Ozawa et al paper RT referenced looks at “total” heat flow, entropy production and work done on the system. See upthread and the pdf of the paper here:-

http://www.knmi.nl/~laagland/cursus/presentaties_voorjaar12/Ozawa.pdf

Clarence
Guest
Clarence

Those who work on energy budgeting presumably make an allowance for all the work that is done by the incoming solar energy in this busy world. I’m sure they can’t measure the actual work in w/m2.

So what are the allowances made by the CSMs? One suspects that they use some constant, which may not make allowance for such changes as the massive growth in photosynthesis over the past 20 years.

I hope they remember to make an allowance for all the energy captured by solar and wind generation nowadays. It would be ironic (not to mention “a travesty”) if Kevin Trenberth were to assume that the equal of all renewable energy is accumulating in the ocean depths!

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”Is Dr Vincent Grey suggesting that doing work somehow destroys energy?” No. The heat engine process transfers heat Q (J) but some heat is CONVERTED to work done W (J), not destroyed:- Heat Engine as Part of a System Heat engines enable heat energy to be converted to kinetic energy through the medium of a working fluid. The diagram opposite shows the system heat flow. http://www.mpoweruk.com/images/heat_engine.gif Heat is transferred from the source, through working fluid in the heat engine and into the sink, and in this process some of the heat is converted into work. http://www.mpoweruk.com/heat_engines.htm The sink of Dr Grey’s system is space and the source is the sun but the “working fluid” is all planetary energy transfer mediums. Some work is done on the system (see below). The sink of a heat engine as part of that system could be the polar ocean say, and the hot reservoir (source) is the tropical ocean. The only major “working fluid” in this subsystem is water. Again, some work is done on the subsystem (see below). In both cases if the heat source varies, the quantity of heat transferred varies but this is considered… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”I’m sure they can’t measure the actual work in w/m2.”

They can only make estimates Clarence, more in terms of total entropy than work done e.g. Ozawa et al (cited by RT) come up with “The total rate of entropy production is 0.90 (W K1 m2)” on page 11:-

http://www.knmi.nl/~laagland/cursus/presentaties_voorjaar12/Ozawa.pdf

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”Or that this work done is somehow storing energy somewhere on our planet?” On reflection I think Dr Grey overstates the scope of the heat engine in his system. His system includes radiation as a “working fluid” (transfer medium) so that radiation is converted to heat (Q) and work (W) but that subsystem cannot strictly be described as a “heat” engine because energy in the form of radiation is being transferred, not heat. The work done (W) by the radiation includes photosynthesis so I suppose the work energy can be considered to be “stored” in land and marine vegetation and living organisms. Some storage, as in the case of trees, for hundreds of years. Horticulture and agriculture is basically harvesting the work done by sunlight (but sunlight is radiation, not heat). NASA defines the climate heat engine as only the coupled atmosphere and ocean circulation system (the heat-only system):- The Sun doesn’t heat the Earth evenly. Because the Earth is a sphere, the Sun heats equatorial regions more than polar regions. The atmosphere and ocean work non-stop to even out solar heating imbalances through evaporation of surface water, convection, rainfall, winds, and ocean… Read more »

Andy
Guest

and they are getting fatter.
More humans + more fat = stored energy.

(I’ll get my coat)

Richard Treadgold
Guest

Are you feeling cold?

Richard Treadgold
Guest

Happy New Year, Warwick. Thanks for passing on the bit about the Maoris. Amazing distortions by the IPCC! Though politically correct, of course!

Nick
Guest
Nick

Richard T & Richard C,
Energy cannot be converted to work and so magically disappear.

Work is a measure of useful energy transfer from one system or state to another but energy does not disappear just because work is done.

Most of the time it becomes heat energy or some kind of potential energy.

If you are claiming that the energy imbalance that Dr Gray proposes as being normal is because energy is being stored in the deep ocean can you please explain why the oceans didn’t boil away thousands of years ago?

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Re work done by radiation and the “storage” aspect of harvesting sunlight – it gets very complex:- Scientists find quantum mechanics at work in photosynthesis PhysOrg.com) — A team of University of Toronto chemists have made a major contribution to the emerging field of quantum biology, observing quantum mechanics at work in photosynthesis in marine algae. “There’s been a lot of excitement and speculation that nature may be using quantum mechanical practices,” says chemistry professor Greg Scholes, lead author of a new study published this week in Nature. “Our latest experiments show that normally functioning biological systems have the capacity to use quantum mechanics in order to optimize a process as essential to their survival as photosynthesis.” Special proteins called light-harvesting complexes are used in photosynthesis to capture sunlight and funnel its energy to nature’s solar cells – other proteins known as reaction centres. Scholes and his colleagues isolated light-harvesting complexes from two different species of marine algae and studied their function under natural temperature conditions using a sophisticated laser experiment known as two-dimensional electronic spectroscopy. “We stimulated the proteins with femtosecond laser pulses to mimic the absorption of sunlight,” explains Scholes. “This… Read more »

Andy
Guest

I think we should congratulate Warwick on trawling through the Santa data and finding these mind-numbingly PC pieces of turgid prose, and somehow presenting it to the world without falling asleep.

I feel empowered now to reach out to my Bro’s in arms and apologise for my reckless abuse of the climate system, and hope that their climate-exposed brothers and sisters feel some compassion for me, as I get led to the gallows in Graz

Andy
Guest

CO2 causes warming and warming causes CO2 to rise, so why didn’t the oceans boils away thousands of years ago in a positive feedback loop of runaway warming?

Of course, rather than second guess what Vincent Gray was trying to say, we could ask him personally. He is in the phone book I think

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”Energy cannot be converted to work….” Yes it can. That is what a heat engine does and how electricity is generated at thermal power stations and how petrol and diesel auto engines work for example. The difference between those systems and the climate system is that say auto engines are designed for the work dove (W) and the inefficiencies e.g. friction, rob the engine of work and are budgeted as heat losses (Q). The climate heat engine on the other hand, is heat-centric (Q) and the “losses” are work-centic (W) i.e. vice versa to auto engines. The conservation of energy and the accounting for “losses” (as i understand) is in terms of entropy (see upthread). “….and so magically disappear” You’re the one saying it “magically disappears” not us. See previous response re entropy. >”Work is a measure of useful energy transfer from one system or state to another but energy does not disappear just because work is done.” Correct. some energy is transferred without conversion (Q) in the ocean-atmosphere and auto engine heat engine examples and some is converted to work (W), the relative proportions depending on whether it’s an auto engine or… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

I see what you mean, I’ve only just got to read the blog post beyond Warwick’s comment here (that was enough for me at the time).

Hard to get past the opening stanza:-

“The projected impacts of climate change on Maori society are expected to be highly differentiated reflecting complex economic, social, cultural, environmental and political factors (high confidence).”

That’s probably among the reasons why they migrated here in the first place.

Andy
Guest

Why don’t we ask the guys at Hot Topic? They know everything over there
Unfortunately, any questions about the cold weather in China/Russia/USA/Ukraine/Alaska etc are now being snipped

We are expected to believe that the cold in China is caused by AGW, and anyone who disagrees or questions it is a “denier troll”

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Some interesting developments Andy. It’s easy not having to hand them a rope, they seem quite capable of hanging themselves unassisted. I see SkS and HT are digging themselves further into the hole (it’s metaphor day) already very deep (‘Still warming after all these years (again)’), claiming they can “Take out the impact of the three biggest factors driving natural variations in the global average temperature — volcanoes, the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the solar cycle”. They might be able to “take out” volcanoes but not ENSO or solar because solar stores energy in the oceanic heat sink that fuels ENSO. They’re ignoring decadal/multi-decadal slow responses – again. There’s a misconstrual I think, even by sceptics, that the GCMs don’t model ENSO. OK they don’t mimic the actual events but they certainly account for the solar energy going into the ocean that fuels El Nino energy output say. They can’t “take out” that energy because one short sharp EL Nino event (e.g. ’98) is actually the release of years of solar energy accumulation and even then there’s residual energy left over. I think even some non-AGW aligned scientists are guilty of that… Read more »

Andy
Guest

The UKMO is an interesting development. 5 years from now takes us to 21 years of potentially no warming (using the old school empirical approach of actual data) which happens to be about the same length of time of modern warming (1976-1998)

Where does that leave us?

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”Where does that leave us?”

The prediction is still for elevated levels that I’m inclined to agree with for the next 5 yrs or so to a degree (depends how the solar recession works out in terms of ocean heat accumulation and release) but I don’t see any reason for the El Nino-like peak at 2016.

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/65157000/jpg/_65157024_65157023.jpg

It leaves me questioning what their rationale for the 2016 peak is and even what the rationale for their forecast of this yr’s average level (2013) is:-

http://hot-topic.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/2013forecast.png

It all leaves us having to seek explanations as to why most of the GCMs have gone off on a tangent and why CO2 forcing is not the driver it was thought to be. In other words, nothing much has changed for us except to watch some surreptitious institutional repositioning in the face of reality and improved understanding of natural cycles. And to witness a new round of warmist self-validation despite reality and the aforementioned institutional repositioning.

In short, it’s good to be us.

Richard Treadgold
Guest

Good work, Richard. I agree.

It all leaves us having to seek explanations as to why most of the GCMs have gone off on a tangent and why CO2 forcing is not the driver it was thought to be.

It’s not our hypothesis that searches for proof. If there’s anything for us to do, it’s simply to describe what you say and to keep describing it.

What would be a good approach to refute/disprove/mock the HT discussion? Not that I’ve seen it yet.

Andy
Guest

There isn’t a discussion as such. The Australian heat wave is bad (agreed), but any mention of the cold weather in the NH gets met with derision and/or attributed to AGW

As my non-appearing comment tried to state, there may be a plausible explanation as to why changes in the polar ice cap may be changing the jet stream etc
There may also be plausible explanations that the cold weather is just that, and part of the cycles that we see all the time.

The post hoc reasoning that forces all changes into the AGW mold doesn’t seem much like science to me. We used to form an hypothesis, and then test it against nature. Now it seems anything nature does can be forced into the hypothesis with enough fudge factors and assumptions built in. Consequently, it seems more like dogma and religion than science, but I stand to be corrected.

Richard Treadgold
Guest

Thanks, Andy. You make it sound eminently ignorable.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”It leaves me questioning what their rationale for the 2016 peak is and even what the rationale for their forecast of this yr’s average level (2013) is” From Climate Realists:- ‘Decadal Forecasting – What is it and what does it tell us? by the Met Office’ http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=10925 The 5 yr forecast linked in the above comment seems to be (guessing from the Figure 1 plot below) just an average of an ensemble of 10 HadGEM3 simulation runs (some rationale that is if so):- http://climaterealists.com/attachments/ftp/Met%20Office%20413.jpg I’m at a loss to know why a supercomputer is necessary to produce that spaghetti plot just to be averaged – I suspect – to arrive at this forecast:- http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/65157000/jpg/_65157024_65157023.jpg For added randomness, they’ve included a comparison of the superseded 2011 HadCM3 spaghetti with 2012 HadGEM3 spaghetti (Figure 5):- http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/65157000/jpg/_65157024_65157023.jpg How exactly do we know HadGEM3 spaghetti is an improvement on HadCM3 spaghetti? For some inexplicable reason, the HadGEM3 anomaly values in Figure 1 are centred around 0.45 but in Figure 5 are centred around 0.6 and the spaghetti looks different in each Figure. On the bright side, the Figure 1 forecast might indicate that HadGEM3 is one of… Read more »

Robin Pittwood
Guest
Robin Pittwood

The world is getting greener, increased photosynthesis, human population increasing, polar bear population increasing …

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

I’m struggling to reconcile the above two “spaghetti” plots of HadCM3 vs HadGEM3 with the “synthesized” UKMO 2011 vs 2012 decadal forecast comparisons around.

First the spaghetti plots (the HadGEM3 spaghetti doesn’t reconcile between these two either):-

http://climaterealists.com/attachments/ftp/Met%20Office%20413.jpg
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/65157000/jpg/_65157024_65157023.jpg

Now the synthesized plots.

From The Australian (a UKMO plot apparently):-

http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/graphs/temperature/uk-met-office-global-annual-temperaure-sml.gif

From SkS (again, UKMO plots):-

http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/global-forecast-3.jpg
http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/global-forecast-3.jpg

Note that in the second of those SkS plots, the blue forecast (from 2011) doesn’t simply carry on from the red forecast indicating that even the 2011 forecast was itself a revision of (possibly) an earlier red forecast.

The spaghetti plots show only a minor alteration but the change to the synthesized plots is radical (does anyone see what I’m getting at?). What I am I missing or misinterpreting here?

RT, a request. Can we have the 5 plots linked in this comment laid out sequentially in a post for comparison and comment by others please? I for one would be very interested in what others make of this.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”Note that in the second of those SkS plots, the blue forecast (from 2011) doesn’t simply carry on from the red forecast indicating that even the 2011 forecast was itself a revision of (possibly) an earlier red forecast” John Mason at SkS states:- “In 2012, the Hadley Centre (the climatology section of the UK Met Office) introduced its latest multi-year forecast model, HadGEM3, into the decadal forecasting system, replacing the earlier HadCM3 (figs. 2 and 3, below), developed in the earliest years of the 21st Century. HadGEM3 represents the product of many years of detailed research and involves a better understanding of the many variables that work together to bring us the climate we experience. Running the model involves a phenomenal amount of number-crunching, to such an extent that it is only run out to T+ 5 years — to run it out further would hog too many computing resources.” http://www.skepticalscience.com/met-office-HadGEM3-forecast.html This may explain why the 2011 blue forecast doesn’t carry on from the earlier (I think) red forecast. Perhaps the red forecast was a longer run where T was 2000 and the run T + 20 but for the blue forecast T… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)
Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

To clarify, Paul Homewood has identified a separate issue to the ones I have. He is pointing out the revision of the red forecast in the latest 2012 forecast from 2005 onwards (the 1990s is also quite different):-

Previous red forecast.

http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/image_thumb19.png?w=1008&h=852

Latest red forecast,

http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/image_thumb18.png?w=1008&h=778

I.e. there are FOUR forecasts (red, red, blue, blue) and TWO forecast revisions (red-red AND blue-blue), not just one (blue-blue).

My issues on the other hand were with the blue forecasts from 2010 onwards (spaghetti to synthesis issues) and that they didn’t “carry on” from the 2011 red line not realizing that the Met had revised the red line in the 2012 forecast (“jiggery pokery” as Paul puts it).

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Oops, correction from up-thread.

From SkS (again, UKMO plots):-

http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/global-forecast-3.jpg
http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/global-forecast-3.jpg

Should be,

From SkS (again, UKMO plots):-

http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/global-forecast-3.jpg
http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/globa–forecast-1.jpg [this link corrected]

Paul Homewood’s revelation that the red forecast was revised explains why the 2012 blue forecast didn’t “carry on” from the 2011 red. I didn’t realize the red had been revised between 2011 and 2012.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Jan 10, 2013 at 9:47 PM | Registered CommenterRichard Betts The white lines [average of red] show hindcasts, ie: model simulations started from older initial conditions and then run onwards, and compared with the observations to see how well the model does. The point here is that the hindcasts with the new model (HadGEM3) compare better with the observations than the old model (HadCM3) and so this gives us more confidence in the new model. These decadal forecasts use “initialised forecasting” techniques, ie: the models are started at the observed state for the current time – as distinct from the long-term climate projections that start back in pre-industrial times, run through the 20th Century and then on into the 21st Century, meaning that they can’t be expected to capture the exact year-by-year variations that the initialised forecasts are attempting to capture. Because the initialised forecasts are started off at, say, the right place in an ENSO cycle, they potentially can capture the natural variations arising from ENSO and other modes of variability. This is still early days of course, there is still a lot more work to do, but you can see from… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Interesting. HaroldW at BH observes:-

“HadGEM3 is not listed on KNMI Explorer among the CMIP5 models”

This goes against my “On the bright side…” comment that these last comments on this thread reply to.

Basically, the “better” HadGEM3 model (as Richard Betts puts it) is not a CMIP5/AR5 model but presumably supersedes the UKMO CMIP5 model, rendering the UKMO contribution to CMIP5 obsolete. Richard Betts effectively confirms this:-

Hi HaroldW

1) Because HadGEM3 is much more computationally expensive to run than HadCM3, being higher resolution and having much more detailed equations, so the hindcasts to check the model’s performance were only done for 5 years as opposed to 10 years. Notice that the red bands (the hindcasts) are only 5 years in length in the 2012 figure, but 10 years in the 2011 figure.

2) HadGEM3 is still under ongoing development so couldn’t be included in CMIP5 – models had to be “frozen” (ie: no more changes) in order to included in the comparison. So, it’s not been used for those scenarios yet

Jan 10, 2013 at 11:03 PM | Registered CommenterRichard Betts

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

For the record. http://hot-topic.co.nz/still-warming-after-all-these-years-again/#comment-36286 Richard C2 January 15, 2013 at 1:16 pm Your comment is awaiting moderation. SkS are out on a limb now that the UKMO has revised its decadal forecast. The Foster and Rahmstorf trajectory follows the 2011 HadCM3 forecast but the 2012 HadGEM3 forecast is no longer on that trajectory now that the new model accounts for natural variability better (apparently) than the obsolete model:- http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/09/shift-in-british-climate-analysis-blunts-governments-short-term-warming-forecast/ I would point out too that the new HadGEM3 (too late for AR5) forecast is about 0.2 C below the lower StDev dotted line for most of CMIP5/AR5 ensemble at 2017 going by this incomplete graph here:- http://curryja.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/christy-fig.jpg?w=808&h=622 Admittedly, the 2012 forecast is a synthesis of a 10 run spaghetti plot but what does the divergence of CMIP5 ensemble average from observations AND from at least two improved models (see below) say about the CMIP5/AR5 ensemble? Most of the CMIP5 ensemble have failed to mimic the 21st century trajectory of observations let alone absolute level. Any model that fails to mimic observations is superfluous i.e. UKMO obviously decided HadCM3 was rubbish and had to be discarded in view of HadGEM3 results. By that reasoning,… Read more »

Andy
Guest

Your comment is in the twilight zone.

Mind you, there are some unsavoury comments about hunting down “climate criminals” Maybe you are better off there.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Heh, must have been unpalatable. First time in The Twilight Zone for me.

BTW Andy, did you see it come through by email via the ‘Still warming after all these years (again)’ thread originally? All is not lost if you did, I would have liked Chris Rennie to see it (food for thought for a thinker at least).

I’ll post something like it in a national online newspaper at the next opportunity (more eyes) so it’s not wasted effort anyway. One like it at the NZ Herald on Monday didn’t see the light of day either.

RT, is it (see comments above) worth cobbling into a post e.g. ‘The Comment Gareth Renowden Found Unpalatable’?

Andy
Guest

I got the email from the twilight zone. Sounds funny saying that, but that is what it said.

Two weeks into a new year, I am tired of all the BS already.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

The Twilight Zone

by Gareth on March 3, 2011

Introducing The Twilight Zone: a repository for comments that are off-topic, obvious trolling, or from the terminally bemused — a feature of Hot Topic’s new comments policy. Do not expect to find good sense herein — consider it a record of failed communication and fantasy.

http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-twilight-zone/

“consider it a record of failed communication and fantasy” – Or consider it a record of censored comments of the unpalatable kind – I might just comment there directly from now on to save Gareth the effort. My comment and following correction below it here:-

http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-twilight-zone/#comment-36286

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”I got the email from the twilight zone” – Ha! Yes funny, not often you see that.

Shame, but the issue isn’t going away for Gareth. Much as he would like it to.

Richard Treadgold
Guest

Richard C,

RT, is it (see comments above) worth cobbling into a post e.g. ‘The Comment Gareth Renowden Found Unpalatable’?

Quite likely, but I don’t understand the matter. Could you summarise for the blogger in the street?

Andy
Guest

It is possible the comment went into that thread by default. I wouldn’t read too much into it, and do we want to start another flame war? We are having such fun here

Richard Treadgold
Guest

Well, I can understand that quite well, and my answer is “no.” Thanks, Andy.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”Could you summarise for the blogger in the street?” OK RT. It could just be a post to highlight the general situation that has emerged since Christmas Eve and not necessarily directed at Gareth and his Twilight Zone setup. In fact you could leave him out of it completely as Andy suggests because the issue is much bigger than him anyway. The state-of-play as I see it. There is now a very significant split among players involved in A) modeling climate for the IPCC and for their respective national institutions, and B) AGW-aligned players promoting the notion that warming has not ceased because there is still a “true background global warming signal”. Note the word “background” – that is a fallback in the absence of an overt warming trend this century and so in order to keep the notion that temperatures continue to rise and warming is continuing there has to be either a major data torture exercise (see Ba) or some other very tenuous indicator (see Bb). The players of note. Aa) The UKMO quietly released a revised decadal forecast (actually for 5 years 2013 – 2017) on Christmas Eve that synthesized… Read more »

Andy
Guest

Ken has also put up a post with the SkS video in it, so it is certainly doing the rounds.

No one explains how they come to these conclusions though.

Good synopsis Richard C

Andy
Guest

By the way, Gareth has just put up an open thread and the starter for 10 is Hansen’s Global Temp Update 2012 which Richard C linked to here and I subsequently linked to over there.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

RT, ignore John Christy’s EPW Figure 2.1 models vs observations plot linked upthread (http://curryja.files….). There is now an updated Fig 2.1 plot available from John’s EPS testimony here:-

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/clip_image0042.jpg

The blue INM-CM4 line was not included in the EPW plot

Andy
Guest
Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

A “William S” turned up at Hot Topic, said this:- “For example, actual empirical data obtained by the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) satellite shows that when the Earth warms, more heat is radiated back into Space, in other words, a strong negative feedback which cancels out the initial temperature rise.” http://hot-topic.co.nz/climate-of-complacency-2-de-freitas-lies-to-tv3/#comment-36363 He gets it wrong next para with this though:- “All computer models predict a net positive feedback that amplifies the initial warming. Therefore, the models programmed with the unverified assumption that there is a net positive feedback are fundamentally wrong” Not so now. In a recent paper (Stephens et al probably, or Wild et al, can’t remember) there was a comparison between about half a dozen models of performance indicators. One of those indicators was ‘OLR sensitivity’ (I think it was). The Russian INM-CM4 model was the only model in the CMIP5 group sampled that exhibited positive OLR sensitivity, it is also only one of two CMIP5 to mimic observations. OLR sensitivity is the mechanism William S describes and INM-CM4 conforms to the ERBE observations i.e. the model releases increasing energy to space as temperatures rise. The other models in the… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”In a recent paper (Stephens et al probably, or Wild et al, can’t remember)” Found it. It was a dozen models, not half a dozen. ‘An update on Earth’s energy balance in light of the latest global observations’ Graeme L. Stephens1*, Juilin Li1, Martin Wild2, Carol Anne Clayson3, Norman Loeb4, Seiji Kato4, Tristan L’Ecuyer5, Paul W. Stackhouse Jr4, Matthew Lebsock1 and Timothy Andrews6 https://www.dropbox.com/s/8gkbto14cy8ip2y/ngeo1580.pdf Page 694 (4 of 6):- Figure 2 | The change in energy fluxes expressed as flux sensitivities (Wm–2 K–1) due to a warming climate. TOA flux (a) and surface flux (b) sensitivities derived from a 12-model ensemble from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 150-year model simulations forced by a 1% per year increase in carbon dioxide. Also included are multi-model mean values (also in Wm–2 K–1). All-sky short- and longwave fluxes refer to the fluxes from Earth that combine both clear and cloudy skies. The TOA flux sensitivities include the clear-sky OLR (OLR-C), the all-sky OLR (OLR), the clear-sky outgoing solar radiation (OSR_C) and the all-sky outgoing solar radiation (OSR). The NET TOA sensitivity is the sum of the short- and longwave all-sky flux sensitivities at the… Read more »

Andy
Guest

If you go to the Australian Climate Commission website
http://climatecommission.gov.au/report/off-charts-extreme-january-heat-2013/

that is referenced by Gareth in his assertion that Chris de Freitas is “lying”, you will see that the trolls have bombed the twitter feed

e.g
ILuvCO2ILuvCO2: @ClimateComm Yeah right. Old temp records not broken. warmist stunt. NSW highest 50ºC 70 years ago. Victoria’s highest 50.7ºC 103 years ago

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”Gareth has just put up an open thread and the starter for 10 is Hansen’s Global Temp Update 2012″

Re Gareth’s response to your opening comment Andy:-

Gareth January 17, 2013 at 12:20 pm

Hansen is nothing if not honest. We need a lot more data on aerosols and their impact. It may well be that the increase in pollution caused by the rapid expansion of the economies of China and India is helping to mask warming. What happens when that pollution is cleaned up? A pulse of rapid warming… It’s a Faustian bargain.

http://hot-topic.co.nz/people-talkin-10/#comment-36366

I see this at the bottom of an article covering the BC paper (H/t Climate Depot):-

“Fahey also acknowledges other uncertainties in the study. Although black carbon contributes to warming, the impact of aerosol emissions on climate could end up being significantly positive or negative. “It’s not over yet, he says.” ”

http://www.nature.com/news/soot-a-major-contributor-to-climate-change-1.12225

“…could end up being significantly positive or negative”

Now THAT’S uncertainty.

Andy
Guest

“Our warming world” a new app from the New Scientist

http://warmingworld.newscientistapps.com/

Shows the “warming” that NZ has received in the last 3 decades quite graphically

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Wizzo! You can get the locations e.g. Auckland, Kaitaia, Stewart Island.

But take a look at Sydney and Hobart. BEST uses Hobart as the NZ proxy early on but Hobart looks nothing like any of the NZ locations.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

From the ‘Hansen concedes’ thread at WUWT:- tallbloke says: January 16, 2013 at 8:16 am The energy imbalance isn’t in the direction Hansen fondly believes: http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2010/12/20/working-out-where-the-energy-goes-part-2-peter-berenyi/ + + + Peter Berenyi took on all comers at SkS back in April 2010. + + + Leif Svalgaard says: January 16, 2013 at 8:35 am Unfortunately, Hansen in Figure 4 continues the myth that TSI at the latest minimum was lower than at previous minima. It is now known that this is not correct, the reason being uncompensated degradation of the sensors on which PMOD is based. See http://www.leif.org/research/PMOD%20TSI-SOHO%20keyhole%20effect-degradation%20over%20time.pdf and more importantly the admission here: http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/news/2011ScienceMeeting/docs/presentations/1g_Schmutz_SORCE_13.9.11.pdf slides 31-33: “Observed data do not support a measurable TSI trend between the minima in 1996 and 2008″ + + + PMOD is the favourite of solar detractors (even solar “specialists”) because it exhibits a downward trend. They (esp SkS) of course then demand an instantaneous (fast) response in atmospheric temperatures (cooling), but are completely oblivious to solar=>ocean=>atmosphere lag (the slow response) and the fact there are 2 other major TSI composites (ACRIM and IRMB) that either have a very small rising trend (ACRIM) or are flat (IRMB). +… Read more »

Andy
Guest

Off topic, but I think it is great that NZ science blogs have got off to a great start to 2013

Perrott is droning on about deniers, as always, and Hot Tooic are conducting the usual witch hunt against Chris de Freitas

How much of my taxpayer money goes into sponsoring this crap via SciBlogs, I ask myself?

Is it any wonder that no self respecting young person wants to bother studying science in NZ anymore?

Andy
Guest

Solar vs Anthropogenic, a 37 min video of Nir Shaviv

http://www.sciencebits.com/Munich-2012

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Condensation-driven winds: An update

by Anastassia Makarieva, Victor Gorshkov, Douglas Sheil, Antonio Nobre, Larry Li

[…]

In other words, all work performed by the non-condensable gases as they ascend and expand is fully spent on elevating their respective molar shares of total air mass in the gravitational field. Nothing is left to generate kinetic energy.

By contrast, if we consider the saturated water vapor, condensation means that we have

[Equation 2]

That is, the work of the partial pressure gradient of water vapor greatly exceeds what is needed to overcome gravity. The main physical statement behind our new view is that this net remaining power

[Equation 3]

is available to generate kinetic energy and drive the Earth’s atmospheric dynamics. Roughly speaking it is the power that remains after the water vapor has “lifted itself”. The value of q represents the volume-specific power of the “motor” that drives the atmospheric circulation.

>>>>>>

http://judithcurry.com/2013/01/31/condensation-driven-winds-an-update-new-version/

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