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ClarenceRichard C (NZ)Earthling (Spain)Richard TreadgoldJohn Robertson Recent comment authors
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Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)
John Robertson
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John Robertson

Numbers will be forthcoming after the proper adjustments are made, standby.
Sarcastic I know but the meme of 2012 being warm needs all the help the team can give it.

Richard Treadgold
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Thanks, RC. Not really warming, is It?

Richard Treadgold
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🙂

Earthling (Spain)
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Earthling (Spain)

I’m sure they’ll manage it somehow.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

>”Not really warming, is It?” Not yet, but apparently 2013 “is likely to be warmer than 2012” according to the UK Met Office, or ‘A new world record(?)’ as Gareth puts it http://hot-topic.co.nz/a-new-world-record/ I have no idea what they are basing their forecast on because 2013 ENSO predictions are for neutral conditions, the PDO is in cold mode, the sun’s going into recession etc, etc. I do expect that for the next 1 or 2 years global average temperatures will be elevated because there’s still plenty of residual heat in the ocean to dissipate (mostly in the Nth Atlantic) but it takes a concentrated release by El Niño to boost atm temperatures and it would take a very big one to boost above the 2005 and 2010 levels of the UKMO graph, both were El Niño years. What we have to keep in mind is that the UKMO graph is of ANNUAL averages i.e. the graph would be better presented as a bar graph. So their prediction is that the average of the ENTIRE year of 2013 will 0.12 C warmer than the ENTIRE year of 2012 (also an El Niño year) and… Read more »

Clarence
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Clarence

I agree that SST trends are probably better indicators of actual global temps than land measures, if only because the latter are so prone to contamination and adjustment.
Are they measured by satellite or by ships?

The Hadley graph shows a distinct cooling trend over the past decade. It would be interesting to know whether that visual trend is statistically significant. Does Hadley publish error bars?

NIWA says that New Zealand temps are largely determined by surrounding SST. If that’s true, we should have seen a cooling in land temps over the past 10 years.

Richard, why did you confine yourself to the southern hemisphere? It has more acreage than the North but I’d have expected the two to move more or less in tandem.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Hi Clarence, your questions. >”Are they measured by satellite or by ships?” 21st century HadSST2/3 now from ARGO floats (since 2003/4) and moored buoys. Satellite SST series available too (MODIS Aqua I think). NIWA provides a subscription service of live satellite data for sea surface temperature, chlorophyll analysis and satellite cloud imagery:- http://www.niwa.co.nz/our-services/online-services/satellite-data-services >”The Hadley graph shows a distinct cooling trend over the past decade. It would be interesting to know whether that visual trend is statistically significant. Does Hadley publish error bars?” I don’t know about the significance but the UKMO have given confidence limits on their historical record and 5 year prediction on the HadCRUT graph here Clarence:- http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/65157000/jpg/_65157024_65157023.jpg http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/08/the-other-big-story-today-bbc-forced-to-admit-global-warming-static/#more-77220 HadSST is the SST component of HadCRUT, the addition of CRUTEM land tends to dampen the series. I note the lower limit of their prediction is definitely a continuation of cooling if that lower limit eventuates. >”NIWA says that New Zealand temps are largely determined by surrounding SST. If that’s true, we should have seen a cooling in land temps over the past 10 years.” A polynomial trend of the NZT7 does show cooling over the past 10 years:- http://i54.tinypic.com/27xjm0k.png >”Richard,… Read more »

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