I’ve been busy

Business commitments have kept me from covering any climate topics for a while, but I plan to post an article or two at the weekend. There’s a paper on clouds by two Auckland researchers that has come to my attention and I may have time for further items.

So, my apologies, but I haven’t stopped either being interested in climate matters or spending time reading and writing about them. There’s a lot happening and some people have been quite excited at the extra realistic (sceptical) coverage of global warming.

I avoid getting excited because the great carbon-based wheel is now turning at a fair clip and will take a power of stopping. That’s no reason to slacken our efforts, but is a reason to raise the gaze to a slightly more distant finish line.

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Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Yes it is exciting Richard. Roger Dewhurst asked this question at Hot Topic:- Roger Dewhurst February 12, 2012 at 11:09 am Which looks a better fit? http://alfin2100.blogspot.co.nz/2012/02/ipcc-climate-model-projections.html http://hot-topic.co.nz/people-talking-6/#comment-29494 This is my response that I will email to Roger and post at Hot Topic but because I’ve been in ‘Permanent Moderation’ it may be awhile before it appears (if it ever does) ******************************************************************************************************* Roger, “Which looks a better fit?” Obviously the harmonics are a better fit than the IPCC projection but I think there’s a flaw in Scafetta’s long-term prognosis around 2040 here:- http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/scafetta_figure-original1.png Reason being that the phases that we see, oscillate about a quadratic trajectory found in HadCRUT3 by Scafetta 2010. That underlying trend is extrinsically imposed and Wu et al 2007 found a similar trajectory using an intrinsically extracted EMD residual. Problem is that the Wu07 series ended 2003 and with the additional data since then the residual has transitioned to an INVERTED curve (still rising). The residual cannot be used for prediction purposes because as additional data comes in, the residual repositions and distorts until a new IMF is added (there are 7 IMFs in HadCRUT3/HadSST2 since 1850) and a… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

This was the message returned when I posted at Hot topic:-

Warning: Bad Behavior spam capture in /var/www/vhosts/hot-topic.co.nz/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/bad-behavior/bad-behavior-wordpress.php on line 150

Warning: Cannot modify header information – headers already sent by (output started at /var/www/vhosts/hot-topic.co.nz/httpdocs/wp-content/plugins/bad-behavior/bad-behavior-wordpress.php:150) in /var/www/vhosts/hot-topic.co.nz/httpdocs/wp-includes/pluggable.php on line 866

Needless to say the comment has not appeared yet at HT but no problem, it got through Richard T’s “Bad Behavior spam capture” without interruption..

Andy
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Andy

I expect that I’ll be on “bad behaviour” too, since my recent discussion of the Glaciergate issue seems to have induced much foaming at the mouth. They seems unwilling to accept any criticism of their faith whatsoever.

We are clearly seeing the signs of delusional cultists in action.

Andy
Guest
Andy

If you’re interested, my last comment here, followed by Rob Taylor and bill,

http://hot-topic.co.nz/people-talking-6/#comment-29558

Quite funny really.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Rob Painting at Hot Topic a while ago said something like “the trend of Tuvalu sea level rise is 3.7 mm/yr”. This comes from Table 4 of the report linked below. What Rob didn’t point out was Figure 6. 95% Confidence Intervals for linear mean sea level trends (mm/year) plotted as a function of the year range of data. Based on NOAA tide gauges with at least 25 years of record. The Tuvalu station quoted was less than 18yr span at the time of the 3.7mm/yr trend and the 95% Confidence Interval for that span is about equal to the trend (> 3mm/yr). The bigger picture is this:- From South Pacific Sea Level and Climate Monitoring Project: Pacific Country Report Kiribati December 2010 http://www.bom.gov.au/pacificsealevel/picreports.shtml Table 5. Sea level trends for additional Pacific Forum data holdings on the Joint Archive for Sea Level (Span 10 yrs and greater). JASL STATION COUNTRY START DATE END DATE SPAN (years) TREND (mm/yr) 001b Pohnpei-B Fd St Micronesia 1-Jan-74 31-Dec-04 31 1.8 002a Tarawa-A,Betio Rep. of Kiribati 1-Jan-74 31-Dec-83 10 -5.3 002c Tarawa-C,Betio Rep. of Kiribati 1-Jan-88 31-Dec-97 10 3.3 004a Nauru-A Rep. of Nauru 1-Jan-74 31-Dec-95 22… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Bill certainly has a way with words (from an abstracted Leftest perspective).

I note that Rob Taylor’s “elephant” has been responsible for a Jason-2 sea level fall from 2010.1714 of -1.97mm/yr.

Must be an anti-elephant.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Here ’tis (abbreviated and I got it wrong – turns out it’s worse than we thought):- Dappledwater January 26, 2012 at 1:13 pm Bryan Leyland -”When the facts change, I change my opinion” How about you make on good on this? We’ve shown that your recent article in the Dompost was rubbish. Sea level at Tuvalu has risen by 5.1mm per year since the mid-twentieth century. You claimed otherwise. You were wrong – the peer-reviewed scientific literature refutes your falsehoods.. You have not changed your opinion. Sea level rise has accelerated over the last few centuries. You claimed otherwise. The peer-reviewed scientific literature refutes your falsehoods.. You have not changed your opinion. http://hot-topic.co.nz/puppets-on-a-string-us-think-tank-funds-nz-sceptics/#comment-28780 I don’t know where he got “Sea level at Tuvalu has risen by 5.1mm per year since the mid-twentieth century” from (I think he may have made it up – no citation). Global sea level may have “accelerated over the last few centuries” but so what? There’s no antropogenic signature in that. TOPEX/Poseidon/Jason-1/Jason-2 linear trends are:- 1.85 mm/yr (prior to 1998 El Nino and consistent with tide guages) 3.7 mm/yr (1998 El Nino to beginning of 2005 – big thermosteric… Read more »

Andy
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Andy

Apparently I suffer from some kind of Aspergers syndrome.
For those with an engineering or science background, this is known as “attention to detail” or “quality control”.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Nelson, Goddard, Morano, Watts etc (not letting a chance go by) are having fun with “Children won’t know what…….” headlines during the cold snap. A web search of the phrase turns up the variations.

e.g. Children won’t know what olives look like
AGI.it – COLD SNAP THREATENS SURVIVAL OF 100MLN ITALIAN OLIVE TREES

AGI) Rome- Polar temperatures in central and southern Italy are affecting 100 million olive trees. This Mediterranean plant needs a relatively mild climate to survive, even in the winter, and above all it needs to avoid huge temperature spikes, according to Coldiretti. The Italian farmers’ association has raised the alarm on the dramatic effects of the ongoing cold snap on the country’s most traditional tree, one which also represents the local Mediterranean diet. Temperatures below 10 degrees, claims Coldiretti, wreak havoc on olive trees and exponentially increase the damage to the food and farming industry

Posted by Tom at 5:52 AM

http://tomnelson.blogspot.co.nz/2012/02/children-won-know-what-olives-look-like.html

Not much fun for the olive growers though.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Also of a cyclical nature:- Doug Proctor: Climate Change is caused by Clouds and Sunshine Posted: February 13, 2012 by tallbloke This paper pretty much refutes co2 driven global warming. We all owe a debt of thanks to Doug Proctor, who has put a huge amount of work into this paper over the last months. Some of the images have suffered in resizing, so download the pdf for reference too. It’s a long read, but then, you didn’t really expect the issue to be resolved with a couple of paragraphs and a plot done with Microsoft Paint did you? 🙂 Attribution of Variations in Maximum Temperature Records 1932 – 2010 Central United Kingdom, with Implications for Global Warming D.Proctor, P.Geol. Calgary, Alberta December 30, 2011 Abstract Previously sourced and plotted data for averaged annual maximum temperature and hours of bright sunshine covering the period 1932 to 2010 for the Central United Kingdom were analyzed. Changes in the two relative to a stable period (1962 – 1973) amounted to increases of 0.98C and 108 hours in 2010. Three factors were found to be associated with all temperature changes: 1. The duration of bright sunshine,… Read more »

Mike Jowsey
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Mike Jowsey

… or cherry growers 😉

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Another timely natural cycle article this one on sunspot cycle length/El Ninos/oceanic oscillations, Do Latest Solar Studies Confirm Upcoming Global Cooling? Posted on February 13, 2012 by Anthony Watts Guest post by Matti Vooro I fully support the findings of Jan –Erik Solheim , Kjell Stordahl and Ole Humlum and their very recent paper called The long sunspot cycle 23 predicts a significant temperature decrease in cycle 24 [linked] dated February 2012. The abstract reads: Relations between the length of a sunspot cycle and the average temperature in the same and the next cycle are calculated for a number of meteorological stations in Norway and in the North Atlantic region. No significant trend is found between the length of a cycle and the average temperature in the same cycle, but a significant negative trend is found between the length of a cycle and the temperature in the next cycle. This provides a tool to predict an average temperature decrease of at least 1.0 ◦C from solar cycle 23 to 24 for the stations and areas analyzed. We find for the Norwegian local stations investigated that 25–56% of the temperature increase the last 150… Read more »

Anthropogenic Global Cooling
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Anthropogenic Global Cooling

Delingpole had a good one a while ago: ‘Children Just Aren’t Going to Know What the Sun is’.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100133247/children-just-arent-going-to-know-what-sun-is/

Please, please, won’t someone pleeeeeaaase think of the children. Oh, the humanity!!

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

I see a two-fold effect of the Pacific El Nino (there’s also an Indian Ocean trigger according to JAMSTEC AL https://www.climateconversation.org.nz/open-threads/climate/meteorology-001/), that being the upwelling mechanism Matti Vooro describes plus the warm water available in the Pacific Warm Pool above Australia to move back across to the east.

If there’s a reduction in the upwelling warm water late this year due to the long sunspot cycle 23 and relatively little warm pool as we see here http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif (I’m sure it was much warmer last El Nino).

Then your El Nino’s a fizzer Gareth, sorry.

Doug Cotton
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There is no systematic causal relationship between carbon dioxide levels and climate change simply because the greenhouse conjecture is not based on real world physics. Prof Claes Johnson has proved in Computational Blackbody Radiation* that energy in radiation only gets converted to thermal energy if the peak frequency of the radiation from the source is above the peak frequency of the radiation from the target. This essentially provides a mechanism which explains why the Second Law of Thermodynamics also applies for radiative heat transfer, as it does for heat transferred by conduction. There seems no plausible alternative explanation for the observed Second Law, so I suggest we all heed what Johnson has deduced mathematically, being as he is, a Professor of Applied Mathematics. It is not the net radiative flux (or even its direction) which determines whether (and in which direction) thermal energy is transferred. For example, if the emissivity of two bodies is very different, there can be more radiative flux from the cooler one. But all that flux will be scattered by the warmer one and not converted to thermal energy. Only the flux from the warmer one (no matter how… Read more »

bulaman
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bulaman
Alexander K
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Alexander K

Nice to see the discussion up and running again.
Andy SI followed the link you provided to the Renowden circus and I chortled at Bill’s dismal level of scientific knowledge, his totally unfounded massive self-regard and his following of the various CAGW mantra. He and his sycophants reminded me of the teenage buffoons I had to guard the Boys’ toilets against while on playground duty in a very strange Comprehensive school in London. Your patience is admirable,but have you not discovered yet that arguing with idiots is singularly unproductive?

Andy
Guest
Andy

Alexander,
Yes I am wasting my time at HT, but it’s interesting to see what passes as polite conversation over there.

I am chastised for hogging too much space, then when I go away they want me to come back and defend some strawman arguments.

Roger Dewhurst is getting most of his comments snipped now (I know because I get the email notification but the comment disappears). I’ll probably end up there too before long.

Oh well, better things to do with my time….

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Please go back Andy, I’m dying to know where Rob Taylor’s “melted 4.3 TRILLION TONS of ICE in only 8 YEARS” went.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

The total mass of the hydrosphere is about 1,400,000,000,000,000,000 metric tons

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean

Trillion may mean:

Either of the two numbers (see long and short scales for more detail):

* 1,000,000,000,000 (one million million; 1012; SI prefix: tera-) for all short scale countries
* 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 (one million million million; 1018; SI prefix: exa-) for all long scale countries

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trillion

“4.3 TRILLION TONS of ICE” may mean either:

* 4,300,000,000,000 ………………(0.0004% of total hydrosphere)
* 4,300,000,000,000,000,000…….(307% of total hydrosphere)

I think its VERY important that we know which of the SI units Rob is using.

Peter Fraser
Guest
Peter Fraser

I have been amused by the media’s continued use of the term “cold snap” How long does a cold snap last until it becomes a cold period or indeed a cold winter?

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

You’re not the only on Peter:-

Tragedy unfolding in Europe – Is U.S. media trying to ignore it?

“The cold snap in Europe, which began in late January, has killed hundreds and brought deep snow where it hasn’t been seen in decades,” says this article in the Seattle Times.

…….it’s that “cold snap” thing that bugs me.

Did all of the world’s journalists go to “cold snap” school?

http://iceagenow.info/2012/02/tragedy-unfolding-europe-u-s-media-ignore-it/

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

The statement originates from NASA USA, a short scale country:- Using satellite measurements from the NASA/German Aerospace Center Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), the researchers measured ice loss in all of Earth’s land ice between 2003 and 2010, with particular emphasis on glaciers and ice caps outside of Greenland and Antarctica. The total global ice mass lost from Greenland, Antarctica and Earth’s glaciers and ice caps during the study period was about 4.3 trillion tons (1,000 cubic miles), adding about 0.5 inches (12 millimeters) to global sea level. http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/grace20120208.html Antarctic ice sheet: 30 million km3 of ice Greenland ice sheet: 2.85 million km3 of ice Total ice sheet volume: 32.85 million km3 (neglecting other) One metric tonne of water has a volume of one cubic meter One cubic kilometre of ice has a mass of 1,000,000,000 metric tonnes. Total ice sheet mass: 32,850,000,000,000,000 or 32,850 trillion tonnes 4.3 trillion tonne 8 yr ice melt is 0.00013% of total ice sheet mass (4.3/32,850*100). One gigatonne is one billion metric tonnes ( 1 Gt = 1 x 10^9 tonnes or 1,000,000,000 tonnes) How much does one Gigatonne of melted ice (1 km³ of water)… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Errors,

(0.0004% of total hydrosphere) should be (0.0003% of total hydrosphere)

4.3 trillion tonne 8 yr ice melt is 0.00013% of total ice sheet mass (4.3/32,850*100).

Should be

4.3 trillion tonne 8 yr ice melt is 0.013% of total ice sheet mass (4.3/32,850*100).

At this rate 0.14% of the ice sheets will be gone by 2100! (4.3/8 = 0.54 0.54*88 = 47.3 47.3/32,850*100 = 0.14).

Adding about 132mm to sea level.

This is traumatic.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

So if the ice melt component to total sea level rise ratio of the 18.5mm rise over the 8 yr period is 12 : 18.5 and the ice melt contribution to sea level rise over the next 88 yrs is 132mm at the study period rate, total sea level rise x by 2100 will be:

132/x = 12/18.5

132/x = 0.65

x = 132/0.65

x = 203mm or 20.3 cm

IPCC Scenario B1 (LEAST CASE)

* Sea level rise likely range [18 to 38 cm]

I think Rob Taylor’s “elephant” is coloured pink, has wings, is imaginary, and likely the result of hallucinogen inhalation. He should get some fresh air.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

The comment’s been dug out of the spam trap at Hot Topic and is now blinking in the light of day.

My time of penance is over.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Maybe NOT the “two-fold effect” I thought. Argo Data Confirms El Niño/La Niña Caused By Underwater Volcanoes Published by AJStrata Last week I postulated [Linked] that the El Niño/La Niña effect was not due to solar or atmospheric conditions, but actually caused by underwater volcanic activity along ocean ridges off the West coast of South America. To see whether my theory held water I decided to look into the Argo Float data to see if there it was showing a warm upwelling of water in this region. I apparently was correct. […] It is infeasible that El Niño can arise from atmosphere and sun alone by warming this mass of water. Neither air temp or solar radiance change enough to cause this phenomena. At this site you can watch animation of nearly 5 years of Argo data on the tropical region of the Pacific Ocean. It is fascinating and proves my earlier conclusion that the warm waters of El Niño arise from the eastern pacific and travel west – not the reverse as is the current (now defunct) theory […] Now some may ask why didn’t Argos detect the upwelling deeper (1000m)? The… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

From the WUWT comments:- Martin Hovland says: February 15, 2012 at 7:28 am Megaplumes from the Carnegie Ridge cause El Niños? In 1988 we published a book on seabed features dealing with fluids leaking up from the sub-seafloor, including so-called hydrothermal vents. By 1988, the first ‘Megaplume’ had been observed in the East Pacific Ocean (see Anderson, 1987), over the Juan de Fuca spreading ridge. A large plume of anomalously warm water was discovered measuring 19 km across and about 1 km in height (above the seafloor).The top of the plume was about 1.3 km below the ocean surface. The enormous excess heat in the plume was estimated to represent about 10 billion kWh of energy. The venting, which terminated after about 10 days, was found to be equivalent to the yearly output from 2000 small (normal) hydrothermal vents. Based on this observation, we speculated that there may be a close link between mantle convection, and/or the subduction of heated ocean crust slabs, and regional ocean surface warming (Hovland and Judd, 1988, p. 258),. Thus, the main driver for for the El Niño would be hot water contained in the a-seismic Carnegie Ridge,… Read more »

Warwick Hughes
Guest

Can somebody please post the most convenient URL(s) with docs etc summarizing the NZCSC court action(s?) against NIWA – many thanks. Perhaps with a timeline.

Andy
Guest
Andy

For those following the Heartland document leak saga, Heartland have issued a press release here

http://heartland.org/press-releases/2012/02/15/heartland-institute-responds-stolen-and-fake-documents

Note that they are claiming that the documents may have been altered, and some may be completely fake.

Andy
Guest
Andy

Rob has given this link as his source to the news of “trillions” of tons of ice being lost

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/how-much-ice-is-vanishing-into-the-seas-you-dont-want-to-know

Warwick Hughes
Guest

I have just posted some NIWA court documents – incl two affidavits from July 2011.

“Surprising wording in NIWA affidavit re BoM’ work – filed in New Zealand court case”
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=1350

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

That article (all spin) doesn’t mention the “4.3 trillion tonnes” (also makes an error stating 1.8mm/yr ice melt contribution to SSL – actually 1.48). The article links to the original paper (paywalled):- ‘Recent contributions of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise’ * Thomas Jacob,1, 5 * John Wahr,1 * W. Tad Pfeffer2, 3 * & Sean Swenson http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature10847.html#/ref6 The abstract states:- “Here we show that GICs, excluding the Greenland and Antarctic peripheral GICs, lost mass at a rate of 148 ± 30 Gt yr−1 from January 2003 to December 2010, contributing 0.41 ± 0.08 mm yr−1 to sea level rise” One gigatonne is one billion metric tonnes ( 1 Gt = 1 x 10^9 tonnes or 1,000,000,000 tonnes) 148E9*8 = 1.184E+12 = 1,184,000,000,000 = 1.184 trillion tonnes. That’s “excluding the Greenland and Antarctic peripheral GICs”. The NASA article states:- “………..the researchers measured ice loss in all of Earth’s land ice between 2003 and 2010, with particular emphasis on glaciers and ice caps outside of Greenland and Antarctica. The total global ice mass lost from Greenland, Antarctica and Earth’s glaciers and ice caps during the study period was about 4.3 trillion tons (1,000 cubic miles), adding about 0.5 inches (12… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

A compendium of recent studies of the Kermadec Trench:- ‘The Kermadec volcanic region: An overview of geological discoveries from the last decade’ http://www.thekermadecs.org/symposium/abstracts Includes: ‘Submarine massive sulfide mineralization and hydrothermal activity along the Kermadec Arc, the world’s most hydrothermally active’ Matthew I. Leybourne, GNS Science, Lower Hutt “The Kermadec intra-oceanic arc is ~1,220 km long, the result of subduction of the Pacific Plate beneath the Australian Plate. Attention has only recently been given to arc systems as locations of hydrothermal activity and formation of significant submarine massive sulfide (SMS) mineralisation, compared to the mid-ocean ridges. Exploration along the Kermadec arc began in 1998, followed by three systematic hydrothermal exploration cruises in which the entire arc was surveyed – NZAPLUME I in 1999, NZAPLUME II in 2002 and NZAPLUME III in 2004. Additional cruises have explored the Havre Trough, the back-arc to the Kermadec arc, as well as submersible, ROV and AUV studies on specific volcanoes. Our exploration along the arc has shown that the majority of the volcanoes and calderas are hydrothermally active, ranging from diffuse low-temperature venting to robust black-smoker style venting, with temperatures up to >300 °C and with associated SMS… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Megaplumes and Volcanic Gasses 24 06 2011 Well, a bit more “Settle Science”… Seems we’ve figured out that we really don’t know what is happening on the ocean floor in terms of volcanic venting of massive amounts of heat and gasses after all… From: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/12/1212_051212_megaplume.html Hydrothermal “Megaplume” Found in Indian Ocean Brian Handwerk for National Geographic News December 12, 2005 Yes, that’s 2005, but I still like the article… An enormous hydrothermal “megaplume” found in the Indian Ocean serves as a dramatic reminder that underwater volcanoes likely play an important role in shaping Earth’s ocean systems, scientists report. The plume, which stretches some 43.5 miles (70 kilometers) long, appears to be active on a previously unseen scale. “In a nutshell, this thing is at least 10 times—or possibly 20 times—bigger than anything of its kind that’s been seen before,” said Bramley Murton of the British National Oceanography Centre. Scientists reported the finding last week at the fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) in San Francisco. Researchers also announced newly discovered deep-sea hydrothermal fields in the Arctic Ocean and the south Atlantic. The appearance of hydrothermal vents around the world suggests that… Read more »

Andy
Guest
Andy

where is it?

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

El Nino Tectonic Modulation in the Pacific Basin

Leabourne and Adams

http://www.geostreamconsulting.com/papers/Leybourne_Oceans_Fin.pdf

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

My reply to Roger Dewhurst is here:-

http://hot-topic.co.nz/people-talking-6/#comment-29564

I’ll still have to comment via the spam trap I guess but I won’t be spending much time there anyway.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Warwick, I’m not the one to answer (not assoc and not expert) but with Richard T busy, here goes (you probably are on to all this anyway). From http://nzclimatescience.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=blogsection&id=14&Itemid=47 NEW PLEADINGS Posted 31 August 2011 “We have filed an Amended Statement of Claim, adding a cause of action against the “New 7SS” (NZT7) resulting from NIWA’s 2010 Review. A copy is attached (here ). Clause 38 and all the following material are new allegations” “(here)” is http://nzclimatescience.net/images/PDFs/amended%20soc.pdf IN THE HIGH COURT OF NEW ZEALAND AUCKLAND REGISTRY CIV-2010-404-005092 UNDER the Judicature Amendment Act 1972 and Part 30 of the High Court Rules BETWEEN NEW ZEALAND CLIMATE SCIENCE EDUCATION TRUST a trust registered under the Charitable Trusts Act 1957, having its registered office at Auckland Plaintiff AND NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF WATER AND ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH LIMITED a company that is wholly owned by the Crown and a Crown Research Institute, having its principal place of business at Auckland Defendant FIRST AMENDED STATEMENT OF CLAIM APPLICATION FOR JUDICIAL REVIEW 1 July 2011 There was a hearing for Plaintiffs appln for orders of discovery and further particulars set for 6 July 2011 but I don’t what has happened… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Map of known hydrothermal vent fields

The map below documents all known hydrothermal vent fields. Use the pan and zoom controls to explore, and click on the points for details about each. Unconfirmed vent fields have so far mostly been detected only by the plume of smoky water that they emit — their dates of discovery will be revised to the date of visual confirmation, if and when they are visited.

http://www.peteraldhous.com/vents.html

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Natural Climate Change

The Debate on Global Warming

AN EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF THE DEBATE – AN OCEAN ORIENTATION

Are Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases or Natural Geophysical Forcings the Cause of Climate Change? – The Real Story Behind Global Warming:

>>>>>>>>

Precedent Geo-Magnetic Jerks, Earthquakes, Episodic Hydrothermal Venting/Ocean Warming:

>>>>>>>>

CASE STUDIES OF EPISODIC HYDROTHERMAL VENTING AS AN APPARENT DRIVER OF CLIMATE CHANGE

>>>>>>>>

http://naturalclimatechange.com/thedebate.html

Described as “an incredibly detailed analysis” by AJStrata – I’m inclined to agree.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Update To The Geothermal Basis For ENSO Published by AJStrata [See supporting studies including hot spot 200-240 km wide!] e.g. Galapagos hot spot Cocos and Nazca plates Carnegie and Malpelos Ridges Medusa Vent (335 degrees Celsius at opening) Juan de Fuca Ridge One commenter [Bob Tisdale WUWT? and same thread starting here] stated there was no proven association between ENSO and geological activity. The study I discovered actually had references to other studies that had done this work already: Increased seismic activity along the East Pacific Rise (EPR, Walker, 1988, 1995) and Juan de Fuca (Johnson et, al., 2001) ridges is known to precede increases in hydrothermal venting rates and corresponding SST temperature anomalies. Given all this supporting work (and there is more) I think we can conclude the following: 1. The region in question is seismically active 2. The region in questions is home to many hydrothermal vents, a hot spot and a spreading ocean ridge 3. Studies do exist linking seismic activity to ENSO cycles 4. The mega plumes discovered 100 meters down by the Argo data clearly form off the West Coast of Central and South America, and travel westward.… Read more »

Andy
Guest
Andy

Funny how this page on DeSmogBlog is now offline

It had the quote to the alleged fake document on it.
Mashey and Cindy Baxter at Hot Topic are claiming that he fake document is irrelevant, because it “looks like” the others (?) but the DeSmog page that references it is now gone.

Hmmm….

Mike Jowsey
Guest
Mike Jowsey

Sorry Andy I didn’t realise you had already started a thread on this. I was surprised that there was apparently a deafening silence on Conversation, but happily I was wrong. Have posted a comment under open thread Controversy and Scandal here:
https://www.climateconversation.org.nz/open-threads/climate/controversy-and-scandal/comment-page-2/#comment-80807

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

I posted one in Controversy and Scandal too Mike:- “Fake, fake, fake, fake.” – Seinfeld-ism https://www.climateconversation.org.nz/open-threads/climate/controversy-and-scandal/comment-page-2/#comment-80749 But here is a good place to air some views. I’m wondering given HI’s donor structure, whether they will be able to use donor funds to take court action in view of the breach of confidentiality. Weren’t HI negligent in their security? I haven’t read all the articles that you linked (and leaving hypocrisy and duplicitousness aside) but I get the impression that the warmist/sleftists think (or at least want everyone to think) that HI (and conservatives generally) are against science and teachers teaching science because they equate “the cause” with science when the complete opposite is the case at HI. Needless to say “two key points that are effective at dissuading teachers from teaching science” was the dead giveaway that ‘Confidential Memo: 2012 Heartland Climate Strategy’ was fake because it’s warmist mindset and language projected into HI’s strategy – duh! Searching “Restoring the Scientific Method” Heartland turned up this:- Does the Heartland Institute Understand the “Scientific Method”? by Chris Mooney My latest DeSmogBlog post [linked] is about the Heartland Institute, which is holding a conference in… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

From the comments under the Mashey Smog article:-

“I think that we are all enjoying a well-deserved moment of euphoria right now”

Fake, fake, fake, fake.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Also at Smog this Brendan De Melle article (including embarrassing Koch Update but no Confidential Memo: 2012 Heartland Climate Strategy is fake Update):- 14 February 12 Heartland Institute Exposed: Internal Documents Unmask Heart of Climate Denial Machine We are releasing the entire trove of documents now to allow crowd-sourcing of the material. Here are a few quick highlights, stay tuned for much more. –Confirmation that Charles G. Koch Foundation is again funding Heartland Institute’s global warming disinformation campaign. [Update: Apparently even the Koch brothers think the Heartland Institute’s climate denial program is too toxic to fund. On Wednesday, Koch confirmed that it did not cut a check for the $200K mentioned in the strategy memo after all. A statement released on KochFacts.com and the charleskochfoundationfacts.org states that “…the Charles Koch Foundation provided $25,000 to the Heartland Institute in 2011 for research in healthcare, not climate change, and this was the first and only donation the Foundation made to the institute in more than a decade. The Foundation has made no further commitments of funding to Heartland.”] Greenpeace’s Koch reports show the last time Heartland received Koch funding was in 1999. The January 2012… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

From the Mashey Smog article:-

“Free speech allows people to express opinions, even lie about facts

Gotcha!

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Joe Bast puts the HI case (H/t bill at HT) I say “authored” and not “reported,” because this story is filled with false assertions, innuendo, and outright lies. I will break it down, from the top. Actually, we’re trying to make the “teaching of global warming” much more rigorous by replacing propaganda and agenda-driven rhetoric with real science. Actually, we’re sharing the real opinions of real scientists on the causes, consequences, and likely future trajectory of climate change, and of economists and other policy experts on what should be done about it, if anything. And of course principals and teachers are biased… most are liberal Democrats, and large majorities of liberal Democrats believe in man-made global warming. The lamestream media have censored us, completely refused to report on our activities, and now they report a “rare glimpse” of what we’re up to? Our mission is not to “undermine climate science,” and even a superficial examination of our corpus of work should persuade anyone with half a brain that we are sincere. Our mission is to report climate science (and economics) more objectively than the environmentalists and left-wing nuts who are using the issue… Read more »

Andy
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Andy

Donna Laframboise has had a parody of Soggy Bog up for a while now

http://desoggybog.com/

Andy
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Andy

Pielke Jr, via Bishop Hill

If the faked document happened to be produced by a climate activist or scientist (as some are already suggesting), then the leaked Heartland documents will go down in history as one of the more spectacular own goals in the history of the climate debate (with the consequences proportional to the stature of the faker). The faking is likely to overshadow whatever legitimate questions may have been raised by the release of the documents. Imagine what would have happened if the UEA hacker/leaker had made up a few emails to spice up the dossier.

Pretty much sums up my thoughts
http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2012/2/17/rp-jr-on-fakegate.html

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

The big Climategate – Fakegate difference the warmist-left misses probably intentionally and then claiming hypocrisy is:-

Climategate => Public Money

Fakegate => Private Money

Just stating-the-obvious for the record here.

Richard Treadgold
Guest

Sorry I was no help with this, Warwick. Richard C has done it well. We await NIWA’s response.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Yacky dacky doo. I’ve found where Rob Painting (Dappledwater – Hot Topic) got “Sea level at Tuvalu has risen by 5.1mm per year since the mid-twentieth century” from. Quoting dana1981 at Skeptical Science:- What the science says… Between 1950-2009 sea level at Tuvalu rose at the rate of 5.1 (±0.7) mm per year. This is almost 3 times larger than average global sea level rise over the same period […] Becker (2011) [linked] has examined sea level rise in the western tropical Pacific Ocean using a combination of tide gauges, satellite-based measurements, ocean modelling and GPS, and found that the region is experiencing sea level rise much larger than the global average. At Funafati Island, the study authors found that between 1950-2009 ‘total’ sea level, which also accounts for the rate of island subsidence or sinking, rose at 5.1 (±0.7) mm per year, almost 3 times larger than the global average over the same period. http://www.skepticalscience.com/Tuvalu-sea-level-rise.htm Idjits, the lot of them. Table 5. Sea level trends for additional Pacific Forum data holdings on the Joint Archive for Sea Level (Span 10 yrs and greater). http://www.bom.gov.au/pacificsealevel/picreports.shtml 025a Funafuti-A Tuvalu 1-Jan-77 31-Dec-99 23 [yr span]… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

“When we find out who did this – and we will find out – they will absolutely need a lawyer”

– Heartland’s Director of Communications, Jim Lakely

“Basically, it reads like it was written from the secret villain lair in a Batman comic. By an intern.”

– The Atlantic’s Megan McArdle,

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

The way they got the information was blatantly illegal. Somebody on the left side of the aisle registered an email address with the name of someone on Heartland’s Board of Directors, and then emailed a member of the administrative staff at the Institute asking that information be sent. The administrator complied, whereupon the fraudulent email account was deleted, and the information was blasted out to enemies of the Institute.

http://bigjournalism.com/bshapiro/2012/02/17/global-warming-lefties-commit-identity-theft-to-target-conservative-think-tank/

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

In any event, here’s the obvious fact that DeSmog and ThinkProgress ignore. Government-funded research is subject to freedom of information laws; the internal deliberations of privately-funded research and advocacy groups are not. As we know from the climategate emails, Phil Jones and the gang at the Climate Research Unit (CRU) stonewalled FOIA requests for years to prevent independent researchers from checking their data and methodologies. That was a bona fide scandal.

Leaking the CRU emails — whistle blowing — was the only way to (a) produce documents responsive to valid FOIA requests, and (b) expose CRU’s willful evasion of FOIA.

There is no analogy between climategate and the theft of the Heartland documents because (1) Heartland has no legal obligation to share its internal deliberations with the public, and (2), unlike collusion to evade FOIA, strategizing about fund raising is not a crime!

http://www.globalwarming.org/2012/02/17/desmog-blogs-bogus-expose-of-the-heartland-institute/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+globalwarmingorg+%28GlobalWarming.org%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

Andy
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Andy

Bishop Hill on the NZ Science Media Centre’s involvement in this

http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2012/2/18/nz-science-media-centre-hides-the-evidence.html

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

WebCite was useful in that case. I’ve saved a certain page to my home disk but now it’s at WebCite too.

I’ve just read ‘Confidential Memo: 2012 Heartland Climate Strategy’ in it’s entirety (verbosity level vvvvv….). What a load of piffle. Reads more like a ‘Year-in-Review’. A genuine strategy document (verbosity level v) is focussed on the big picture in specific future timeframes, or at least the few I’ve seen and been involved with have been and that’s been in my academic study as well. That Memo is tactical.

http://www.desmogblog.com/sites/beta.desmogblog.com/files/2012%20Climate%20Strategy.pdf

Next project is Mashey’s ‘Fake science, fakexperts, funny finances, free of tax
SEPP, Heartland, CSCDGC, allies & DONORS’

http://www.desmogblog.com/sites/beta.desmogblog.com/files/fake.pdf

Smog’s Valentine’s Day Massacre has turned into a severe case of own-foot-shooting.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Mashey:- John Mashey February 17, 2012 at 2:08 pm Private individuals can give money to others to do what they want, but 501(c)(3) public charities must follow certain rules. It ought be very clear from Fakery that no science was being produced, other than occasional work at CSCDGC that was then over-interpreted. http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-real-climategate-heartlands-hypocrisy-on-display/#comment-29652 And, John Mashey February 15, 2012 at 7:21 pm Kiwi names on p.3: well, yes, I thought that might be fun. Read the 501(c)(3) tutorial (section 0.6), especially the items coded IRS-?E and IRS-10F, combined with pp.63-64. (See also p.55 where Heartland says no tracking necessary since “Friends”) The read might draw inferences about the likely effects of: a) Heartland sending $ to foreign non-charities. NO-NO b) Foreign non-charities engage in clearly non-exempt activities (the IRS-?E codes). NO-NO c) Some of those involved in the NZ non-charities show up and make comments that repeatedly support the non-exemptness. Already gone, but nice icing on the cake. When reading “puppets,” I sometimes had to hold back from commenting, lest I spoil the fun. But all that’s on the record now. It is very likely that neither the non-charities nor Heartland understood the… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Heartland issues legal notices

The Heartland Institute has issued legal notices to at least two of those who have been engaging in dubious tactics after the faking of the strategy memo became clear.

Firstly there is DeSmog [linked] and secondly there is Greg Laden [linked], the blogger who was the subject of considerable interest [linked] among Tallbloke’s legal team a few weeks back.

…we respectfully demand: (1) that you remove both the Fake Memo and the Alleged Heartland Documents from your web site; (2) that you remove from your web site all posts that refer or relate in any manner to the Fake Memo and the Alleged Heartland Documents; (3) that you remove from your web site any and all quotations from the Fake Memo and the Alleged Heartland Documents; (4) that you publish retractions on your web site of prior postings; and (5) that you remove all such documents from your server.

http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2012/2/19/heartland-issues-legal-notices.html

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Occurred to me that John Mashey must be at least a little irritated.

Here he is after spending oodles of hours on the excruciating detail of his 213 page report ‘Fake science, fakexperts, funny finances, free of tax’, mulled over how to cram as much innuendo into the title of it, had to apologize to his wife for his commitment…….

Only to be trumped by a fake 2 page document unthinkingly authored by a colleague on his own side.

Ouch..

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

GEO NUCLEAR essays

SOLAR INPUT IS THE MAJOR SOURCE OF EARTH’S ENERGY – IS IT?

Earth’s Elemental Petrol Production

Motive Force for All Climate Change

Missing Geothermal Flux

The Neutrino Effect

Fossil Fuel is Nuclear Waste

Unified Earth Science Theory

http://fauxscienceslayer.com/geo.html

Should point out that the geothermal flux is not actually “missing” but that where it is accounted for it is a an approx 0.09 W.m2 flux smeared over the entire surface of the earth.

Except that in the major oceans (Pacific, Atlantic, Indian) there are concentrations of hydrothermal and volcanic activity in climate critical regions that make the 0.09 W.m2 flux look ludicrous e.g. one quote from up-thread re a megaplume discovered in the Indian Ocean “A normal hydrothermal vent might produce something like 500 megawatts, while this is producing 100,000 megawatts. It’s like an atom bomb down there.”

This activity is NOT stable and also a major source of CO2.

Mike Jowsey
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Mike Jowsey

The subsidence surely must be due to the extra weight of all those gigatonnes of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere. We’re all doomed, I tell ya!

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

mustakissa February 20, 2012 at 8:01 am

It’s actually sad John… you doing all that work, and then some sleazy Raymond Chandler character pre-empting you by impersonating a Board member, getting sent a load of stuff most of which you had to painstakingly compile; and then, as one Slashdotter put it it, spending a free afternoon and a sixpack to hack out a Summary for Dummies, taking care to insert those gorgeous sound bites that went around the world before anybody thought of doubting them…

But, those are the ways of the world… it’s not a “story” without good guys, bad guys and spectacular action. And the good news is, Heartland have met their match in the art of pulling off a news story 🙂

http://hot-topic.co.nz/what-becomes-of-the-broken-heartland/#comment-29708

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Some perspective. From Renowden’s ‘What becomes of the broken Heartland? The Guardian reports that John Mashey’s massive effort to analyse the links and financial flows between Heartland, Fred Singer and the Idso family firm, the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change (CDCDGC), is leading to calls for an IRS investigation of Heartland’s charitable status. The funds sent to Australia and New Zealand over the last five years seem to be in clear breach of IRS rules1, and likely to cause Heartland and the recipients considerable embarrassment. Looks like US$115 – 180,000 per year sent to East Asia and the Pacific – I’m sure the IRS will work VERY hard on that. And the US Auditor General might even drop the file on the multi-million dollar loans to now defunct renewable energy start-ups by the Obama administration. Then there’s:- Published on Thursday, November 21, 2002 by the New York Times Exxon-Led Group Is Giving a Climate Grant to Stanford by Andrew Revkin Four big international companies, including the oil giant Exxon Mobil, said yesterday that they would give Stanford University $225 million over 10 years for research on ways to… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)
Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Open Letter To Heartland From The Don’t-Do-As-We-Do Climate Team 2012/02/17 Maurizio Morabito (omnologos) [The Unbearable Nakedness of CLIMATE CHANGE] I’ll believe the sincerity of the Open Letter to the Heartland Institute when, say, * Mann’s twitter account will display a little less bile and won’t say incredibly stupid stuff like “[Climategate] was a crime against humanity. It’s a crime against the planet“ * Schmidt will allow discussion on RealClimate, instead of focusing on “simply deleting all of the attempts to draw attention to [whatever he dislikes to talk about]“ * Overpeck will come clean on the trouble of normalizing proxy reconstruction in a misleading way for policy makers * Dear Kev will explain why Wolfgang Wagner had to apologize to him of all people, when resigning about publishing a paper that wasn’t retracted; * Santer will clarify how exactly to tell the “human fingerprint” in global warming * Karoly will apologize about personally attacking a climate scientist himself * Bradley will clarify why he kept his concerns very private on a very public HS matter After all, these are climate scientists that keep writing the patently-untrue, such as passing as “fact” this total… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Bryan Walker at Hot Topic:- The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars by Bryan Walker on February 21, 2012 It was clearly never Michael Mann’s wish to be embroiled in the public controversy that has been manufactured by the denial industry around his and his co-authors’ work. He’s a scientist first and foremost…… http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-hockey-stick-and-the-climate-wars/ Steve Milloy at JunkScience.com:- Climategate 2.0: Mann works with Environmental Defense Fund to edit, place op-ed Posted on November 25, 2011 by Steve Milloy | Comments Off EDF is the PR firm for Climategaters. From the Climategate 2.0 collection, Apparently at the request of the Environmental Defense Fund, Michael Mann drafts an op-ed in response to an op-ed in USA Today by Nick Schulz (TechCentralStation.com). Mann send his draft to Environmental Defense Fund lawyer Annie Petsonk for review and placement: http://junkscience.com/2011/11/25/climategate-2-0-mann-works-with-environmental-defense-fund-to-edit-place-op-ed/ Milloy again:- Mann ‘Open Letter’ to Heartland Traced to Union of Concerned Scientists Posted on February 19, 2012 by Steve Milloy | Leave a comment Michael Mann’s open letter to the Heartland Institute was compiled into PDF format by Aaron Huertas, the self-described “press secretary” for the radical Union of Concerned Scientists.” http://junkscience.com/2012/02/19/mann-open-letter-to-heartland-traced-to-union-of-concerned-scientists/ Andy Scrase at Hot Topic:-… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Daily Kos: Book review: The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars Imagine a place where you and your family are threatened, your employer pressured by the most powerful people on earth to fire you, your email hacked and posted by the usual suspects in accusatory snippets, and where a mysterious letter containing white powder mixed in with tons of traditional hate mail land in your inbox. A suspected communist sympathizer during the McCarthy era, or a Muslim in the wake of 9-11? Nope. All because you helped make one of the most important scientific discoveries in a generation. http://tomnelson.blogspot.co.nz/ “Fake but Accurate,” as Dan Rather once said and NYT quoted (and CBS posted it’s defense at Daily Kos) Also, Revkin wins the fake-but-accurate race? ‘The Dan-Rather-esque ‘fake but accurate’ defense of the memo from teaching science’ ‘When presented with the fact that he may have published a fake memo, Revkin wrote: ‘looking back, it could well be something that was created as a way to assemble the core points in the batch of related docs.’ — ‘It sounds like he is saying that while the memo is faked, it may have been someones… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Recent Comments

* The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars (1)
o radishman: Mans work has been proven wrong many times the mans a cheat Even…

radishman February 21, 2012 at 9:04 am

[Snipped: see comment policy. GR]

http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-hockey-stick-and-the-climate-wars/#comment-29736

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Editorial Climate denial in the classroom February 20, 2012 Los Angeles Times […] Heartland officials say one of the documents [the crucial one] was a fake, but the curriculum plans were reportedly discussed in more than one. According to the New York Times, the curriculum would claim, among other things, that “whether humans are changing the climate is a major scientific controversy.” That is a lie so big that, to quote from “Mein Kampf,” it would be hard for most people to believe that anyone “could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously.” On one side of the “controversy” are credentialed climatologists around the globe who publish in reputable, peer-reviewed scientific journals and agree that the planet is warming and that humans are to blame; on the other are fossil-fuel-industry-funded “experts” who tend to have little background in climatology and who publish non-peer-reviewed papers in junk magazines disputing established truths. […] Despite an intense campaign to discredit his work, Pennsylvania State University professor Michael Mann’s “hockey stick” graph, which shows that temperatures in the latter half of the 20th century soared to their highest level in 1,000 years, has been validated… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

New paper: A high-resolution surface mass balance map of Antarctica shows “no significant trend in the 1979–2010 ice sheet” ————————————————————————————————————————– A new, high-resolution surface mass balance map of Antarctica (1979–2010) based on regional atmospheric climate modeling J. T. M. Lenaerts, M. R. van den Broeke, W. J. van de Berg, E. van Meijgaard,and P. Kuipers Munneke Received 17 January 2012; accepted 21 January 2012; published 21 February 2012. Abstract: The modeled SMB is in good agreement with ±750 in-situ SMB measurements (R = 0.88), without a need for postcalibration. Here’s the money quote: [15] We found no significant trend in the 1979–2010 ice sheet integrated SMB components, which confirms the results from Monaghan et al. [2006]. The estimated SMB trend, integrated over the ice sheet, equals 3+/-2 Gt/y^-2 http://www.leif.org/EOS/2011GL050713.pdf http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/02/20/new-paper-a-high-resolution-surface-mass-balance-map-of-antarctica-shows-no-significant-trend-in-the-1979-2010-ice-sheet/ ****************************************************************************************************** Scientists Determine Modern Greenland Glacier Retreat Not Unique, Part of Natural Melt Cycle “…the researchers were able to create a history of ice loss for Helheim [Glacier]…Two pronounced calving maxima are observed: one during the past 10 years, the other in the late 1930s/early 1940s. The long-term calving increase is probably due to a shift from the Little Ice Age conditions, which… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

For some reason the Greenland seasonal melt departure (SMD) only started to plummet around 2000, see Fig 2 here:-

Figure 2. Snowfall, runoff and surface mass balance for the period 1958 – 2011 simulated by the MAR model.

http://greenland2011.cryocity.org/

2011 melting in Greenland

Year 2011 Greenland melting remains well above the (1979 – 2010) average; close-to-record mass loss

M. Tedesco1, X. Fettweis2, T. Mote3 , N. Steiner1 and J. E. Box4

We combined spaceborne observations and model outputs to provide an analysis of melting in 2011 over the Greenland ice sheet. The combination of the two approaches allows us to portray a more complete picture and to overcome limitations of the approaches taken separately.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

‘More evidence indicates link between El Niños and seismicity’ Daniel A. Walker 1995 In 1988, evidence showed a correlation between the five extreme lows in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) from 1964 through 1987 and episodic seismic activity along the East Pacific Rise (EPR) from 20°S to 40°S. This area contains one of the Earth’s most rapidly spreading ridge systems (Figure 1), where large amounts of energy are released through submarine volcanism and hydrothermal activity. Now that another El Nin˜o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episode may have drawn to a close, it is time to examine additional seismicity and SOI values. Observed coincidences are often the basis for discovery, and reviewing the available data led us to note several. Two distinct phenomena—El Niños and earthquake swarms—seem to occur almost simultaneously in spite of their irregular recurrence rates and durations. Also, we found that what may be the longest lasting of the past six Niños coincides with the longest lasting and most anomalous episode of seismic activity, which occurred from 1964 through 1992 along the EPR from 15°S to 40°S. http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/1995/EO076i004p00033-01.shtml Cited 29 times (Google Scholar), 0 times (AGU EOS). ****************************************************************************************************** Faux Science Slayer [linked] says:… Read more »

Andy
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Andy
Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Peter Gleick Admits to Deception in Obtaining Heartland Climate Files By ANDREW C. REVKIN Dot Earth February 20, 2012, 8:06 pm Peter H. Gleick, a water and climate analyst who has been studying aspects of global warming for more than two decades, in recent years became an aggressive critic of organizations and individuals casting doubt on the seriousness of greenhouse-driven climate change. He used blogs, congressional testimony, group letters and other means to make his case. Now, Gleick has admitted to an act that leaves his reputation in ruins and threatens to undercut the cause he spent so much time pursuing. His summary, just published on his blog at Huffington Post, speaks for itself. You can read his short statement below with a couple of thoughts from me: The Origin of the Heartland Documents Peter Gleick Since the release in mid-February of a series of documents related to the internal strategy of the Heartland Institute to cast doubt on climate science, there has been extensive speculation about the origin of the documents and intense discussion about what they reveal. Given the need for reliance on facts in the public climate debate, I am… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

“The materials the Heartland Institute sent to me confirmed many of the facts in the original document”

i.e.

“Fake but Accurate”

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Preliminary Statement by The Heartland Institute on Gleick Confession

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/02/20/statement-by-the-heartland-institute-on-gleick-confession/

Some understandably pointed comments but……

“We are consulting with legal counsel to determine our next steps and plan to release a more complete statement about the situation tomorrow”

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

“,,,,,,the US Auditor General might even drop the file on the multi-million dollar loans to now defunct renewable energy start-ups by the Obama administration”

Just to put a figure on it,

$3.9 Billion In Federal Funds Went To 21 Green Energy Companies Owned By Five Obama Officials

http://climatechangedispatch.com/home/9950-39-billion-in-federal-funds-went-to-21-green-energy-companies-owned-by-five-obama-officials

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Update to my dispute with Rob Painting (SkS) at Hot Topic re sea levels at Tuvalu:-
—————————————————————————————————————————————-
Richard C2 March 10, 2012 at 5:04 pm

“-10% of this ‘total’ sea level rise at Tuvalu is due to land subsidence”

OK, so using Becker, the ACTUAL long-term sea level rise to 2009 was 5.1 – 0.51 = 4.6 mm/yr

But there’s more recent data from SEAFRAME (that has to be purchased as I understand) but can be seen plotted in Fig 11 page 27 here:-

http://www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO60101/IDO60101.201106.pdf

Since the ’98 El Nino to June 2011 (last 13 years reported) there’s been no 4.6 mm/yr rise, in fact it’s been flat or as Fig 13 page 29 indicates, falling since mid 2006 (last 5 years reported). You might like to highlight the same period in Fig 1 of your SkS post for your readers because it shows the same.

The falling trend since 2006 is consistent with the trend in HadSST2 BTW (falling since 2005)

The crisis seems to have eased somewhat and Bryan Leyland is vindicated.

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