Slowing Sun = cooling Earth

Science story of century

Mini Ice Age on way?

Strange happenings in the sun

End of global warming?

At WUWT Anthony Watts announces: The American Astronomical Society meeting in Los Cruces, New Mexico, has just made a major announcement on the state of the sun. Sunspots may be on the way out and an extended solar minimum may be on the horizon.

“This is highly unusual and unexpected,” Dr. Frank Hill, associate director of the NSO’s Solar Synoptic Network, said of the results. “But the fact that three completely different views of the Sun point in the same direction is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle may be going into hibernation.”

Spot numbers and other solar activity rise and fall about every 11 years, which is half of the Sun’s 22-year magnetic interval since the Sun’s magnetic poles reverse with each cycle. An immediate question is whether this slowdown presages a second Maunder Minimum, a 70-year period with virtually no sunspots during 1645-1715.

“We expected to see the start of the zonal flow for Cycle 25 by now,” Hill explained, “but we see no sign of it. This indicates that the start of Cycle 25 may be delayed to 2021 or 2022, or may not happen at all.”

All three of these lines of research to point to the familiar sunspot cycle shutting down for a while.

“If we are right,” Hill concluded, “this could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades. That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth’s climate.”

h/t Andy Scrase.

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Richard C (NZ)A C OsbornBob DAlexander KRichard C (NZ) Recent comment authors
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Andy
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Andy

I take it that the doctor didn’t say “lay off the blogging”
😉

Welcome back!

Richard Treadgold
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Certainly not. He doesn’t know the effort it takes! Thanks. And thanks for the tip to this story, Andy. I’ve added a belated h/t.

Andy
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Andy

More on Stuff

http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/americas/5146936/Goodnight-sun-Sunspots-may-disappear-for-years

They seem to have applied the usual caveats from the warmists.


Skeptics of man-made global warming from the burning of fossil fuels have often pointed to solar radiation as a possible cause of a warming Earth, but they are in the minority among scientists. The Earth has warmed as solar activity has decreased.

Andrew Weaver, a climate scientist at the University of Victoria, said there could be small temperature effects, but they are far weaker than the strength of man-made global warming from carbon dioxide and methane. He noted that in 2010, when solar activity was mostly absent, Earth tied for its hottest year in more than a century of record-keeping.

Hill and colleagues wouldn’t discuss the effects of a quiet sun on temperature or global warming.

“If our predictions are true, we’ll have a wonderful experiment that will determine whether the sun has any effect on global warming,” (National Solar Observatory associate director Frank Hill,)Hill said.

Indeed. Frank Hill is wise not to make these blanket assertions, unlike Andrew Weaver, who has his CO2 based climate modelling career to think of.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

So whose models will be the best predictors? The solar physicists or the climate scientists?

I’m backing the solar physicists.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Andy, the Stuff article is from AP by Seth Borenstein – this explains the warmist caveat.

Andrew Weaver’s home page (U of V, BC Canada) speaks volumes. He’s author of :-

Generation Us: The Challenge of Global Warming

And

Keeping our Cool: Canada in a Warming World

http://climate.uvic.ca/people/weaver/

And yup, he’s in the climate modeling group – quite a house of cards all up.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Andy’s “The A Register” tip article in “Global Warming” has the best opening paragraph I think.

What may be the science story of the century is breaking this evening, as heavyweight US solar physicists announce that the Sun appears to be headed into a lengthy spell of low activity, which could mean that the Earth – far from facing a global warming problem – is actually headed into a mini Ice Age.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Generation Us reviewed by Bryan Walker at HT no less.

No mention of the solar story though – I guess it got filtered out of their news scanner.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Andrew Weaver is following Hansen’s alarmist advocacy lead – with kids, and he’s caught the attention of CFACT at Climate Depot. Victoria global warming expert turns his attention to the future: youth Monday, June 13, 2011 By LARRY PYNN, Vancouver Sun Andrew Weaver apologizes for being late for the interview but explains he was giving a lecture to his daughter’s class at Lambrick Park secondary school in Victoria. “It may be a provocative statement, but I’ll say it anyways: I’m fed up speaking with the stereotypical angry, retired, grey-haired engineer,” explained the University of Victoria professor and global warming guru. “They’re stuck in their ways and think everything can be fixed and that this is not a big problem.” Since 1989 Weaver has been studying climate issues and, more recently, trying to get governments to act decisively to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, largely from burning of fossil fuels. He’s now come to the conclusion that the federal government isn’t interested, and that it’s time to concentrate on Canada’s youth — the next generation of leaders. “Leadership will have to be grassroots, starting with the consumer and the youth of today,” he said, citing… Read more »

Alexander K
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Alexander K

Very interesting that, coincidentally with the solar info, Steve McIntyre of Climate Audit has posted a damming expose of the IPCC’s corruption in presenting a wildly innacurate report on the wondrous capabilities of renewable energy (windmills, heliographs and bonfires) authored by Greenpiece combined with Alternative Energy special interest groups and presenting it as actual sciency stuff using . Worth a read!
Also noticible is that two climate alarmists, Leo Hickman and Mark Lynas, who write warmist fables for the Guardian, have jumped on this one and are very loud in their condemnation. See the excellent Bishop Hill blog.
Why does the idea of rats and sinking ships occur?

Andy
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Andy

Very interesting I agree. The same Mark Lynas also recently wrote an article about windfarms killing endangered species.

Bishop Hill’s article on the gaggle of warmists singing Steve McIntyre’s praises is interesting.

Andy
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Andy

James Delingpole has chipped in with an entertaining read on this

10 reasons to be cheerful about the coming new Ice Age

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100092280/10-reasons-to-be-cheerful-about-the-coming-new-ice-age/

Andy
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Andy

I was imagining that John Cook at Skeptical Science would be frantically preparing a “rebuttal”.

Here it is:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/How-would-Solar-Grand-Minimum-affect-global-warming.html

Bob D
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Bob D

Pretty much what Schmidt said. A maximum difference of 0.3°C in 2100, over a projected 4.5°C (about 7%).
I’m happy they’ve taken that stance, because as temperatures drop (or remain static) over the next few years, they won’t be able to say “Well, it’s because the sun is quiet you know.”

A C Osborn
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A C Osborn

Glad to see that you’re back, I hope the procedure went well.

Richard Treadgold
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It was quite uncomfortable this time, but it was fully successful, thank you.

Andy
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Andy

Incidentally, I raised the issue of the potential Maunder Minimum on the “James Hansen NZ visit” Facebook page, and have been accused of being an anti-science loony who should be “punished for crimes against humanity”

Much hilarity this end !

http://www.facebook.com/JamesHansenNZTour

(“latest State of the Climate report. Not very good news “)

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Sent this to MfE CC (Cc’d to PMSAC) Sun Headed Into Hibernation, Solar Studies Predict To the Climate Change Office, MfE. Nation Geographic reports:- “Three independent studies of the sun’s insides, surface, and upper atmosphere all predict that the next solar cycle will be significantly delayed—if it happens at all. Normally, the next cycle would be expected to start roughly around 2020. The combined data indicate that we may soon be headed into what’s known as a grand minimum, a period of unusually low solar activity. The predicted solar “sleep” is being compared to the last grand minimum on record, which occurred between 1645 and 1715. Known as the Maunder Minimum, the roughly 70-year period coincided with the coldest spell of the Little Ice Age, when European canals regularly froze solid and Alpine glaciers encroached on mountain villages.” http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2011/06/110614-sun-hibernation-solar-cycle-sunspots-space-science/ The Washington Times EDITORIAL: An inconvenient cooling, states:- “Cornelis de Jager, a solar physicist from the Netherlands and former secretary-general of the International Astronomical Union, announced that the sun is about to enter a period of extremely low sunspot activity, which historically is associated with cooling trends. Backed by other scientists, he predicted the… Read more »

Andy
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Andy

There’s another article on this by Chiefio

http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2011/07/04/solar-max-2014-then-grand-minimum-for-perhaps-100-years/

This is actually reporting independent work in this area – yet another scientist predicting a grand minimum.

Chiefio writes:

This is now a third major scientist, from a third line of evidence, all ending up at the same conclusion. This one from solar magnetic history. One based on a Fourier Transform analysis of past solar cycles. And Habibullo Ismailovich Abdussamatov based on observations of changes of the solar size (the diameter changes slightly with activity).

IMHO “Third Times The Charm”…

With this much all stacking up the same way, the present “cold winter” aint nothin’ yet. We’re only 1/2 way into the Major Minimum and still have about a dozen years of “dropping” to go. At that point, we’re one large volcano away from The Year Without A Summer.

Plan accordingly…

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Chiefio’s three lines of evidence from three different scientists are not the three groups from the American Astronomical Society announcement from what I can gather, so that’s six lines. Anyway here’s a fourth or a seventh, Lockwood et al 2011:- The solar influence on the probability of relatively cold UK winters in the future M Lockwood1,2, R G Harrison1, M JOwens1, L Barnard1, T Woollings1 and F Steinhilber3 http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/6/3/034004/pdf/1748-9326_6_3_034004.pdf Haven’t read it yet because it looks like heavy going but here’s some of it:- 1. Introduction The central England temperature (CET) data series [5, 6] is the world’s longest instrumental temperature record and extends back to 1659, around the beginning of the Maunder minimum in solar activity. The CET covers a spatial scale of order 300 km which makes it a ‘small regional’ climate indicator but, to some extent, it will also reflect changes on both regional European and hemispheric scales [7]. The mean CET for December, January and February (DJF), TDJF, for the recent relatively cold winters of 2008/9 and 2009/10 were 3.50 ◦C and 2.53 ◦C, respectively, whereas the mean value (±one standard deviation) for the previous 20 winters had been… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

In plain English:- According to the new study, chances that the average winter temperature will fall below 2.5°C will be around 1 in 7, assuming that all other factors, including man-made effects and El Niño, remain constant. Put in context, the average UK winter temperature for the last 20 years has been 5.04°C. The last three winters have averaged 3.50°C, 2.53°C and 3.13°C, with 2009-10 being the 14th coldest in the last 160 years. Lockwood says that a full-on Maunder minimum is definitely possible, but obviously – remembering the historical background to the last one – this would not mean glaciers overrunning Europe. “Our results show that over the next fifty years there is a 10 per cent chance that temperatures will return to Maunder minimum levels. Describing the Maunder minimum as a ‘little ice age’ is somewhat misleading however,” says the prof. “Cold winters were indeed more common during the Maunder minimum but there were also some very warm ones between them, summers were not colder, and the drop in average temperatures was not nearly as great, nor as global, as during a real ice age.” http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/07/06/lockwood_solar_minimum/ Also from the same article:… Read more »

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