Computer model is not evidence

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Letter sent to the Herald on 7 Jan, 2011
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Dear Sir,

It has come to my attention that you published a (further) letter from a Dr Doug Campbell, again challenging Professor Chris de Freitas’ recent article about the science of global warming. Dr Campbell said: “The facts support anthropogenic global warming with a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide resulting in warming of between 2 °C and 4.5 °C.”

I wish to point out that, as a matter of fact, that is not a fact.

Dr de Freitas was talking about an expected temperature increase from carbon dioxide alone of about 1 °C, and he mentioned that was, “by itself, relatively small” and “not controversial.”

Dr Campbell, if he disagrees with that, should cite his authority for doing so. The only source of temperature increases greater than one degree is various computer climate models. These models give different results on each run.

It is vital to recognise that the model results are not “facts” or “evidence”, nor should they be in the least persuasive of future climatic conditions. The IPCC themselves forbid the use of terms like “forecast” or “prediction”, in favour of “scenario”, “projection” or, more tellingly, “storyline”. The IPCC definitions are set out here.

Dr Campbell overlooked the fact that Dr de Freitas carefully described the carbon dioxide-induced temperature rise separately from any increase that might follow (called feedback). Because the only source of a temperature increase from feedback is these untested models (which, by definition, make no predictions), it is controversial. Thus it is improper for Dr Campbell to present those “storylines” as a scientifically reasonable “result” by using the words “the facts support”.

Research is under way now by Roy Spencer and others to discover the reality, and the indications are that there is a significant negative feedback from increased cloud formation in the tropics. Research is still under way because results are inconclusive.

But for Dr Campbell to drive his bulldozer of illogic through those scientific results without offering opposing observations is the antithesis of science.

Yours, etc.,
Richard Treadgold

Convenor
Climate Conversation Group

##########
PS: To CCG readers – please let me know if you see this has been published. Thanks.

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Flipperval majkusRichard C (NZ)Richard Treadgold Recent comment authors
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val majkus
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val majkus

David Stockwell on his blog Niche Modelling http://landshape.org/enm/australian-temperature-adjustments/ says ‘The issue with NZ and Nordic data that the raw temperature data for weather stations do not show the temperature increases indicated by the IPCC, raising the question of how the data have been adjusted.’
if stations are introduced in warmer climates late in the century, the average will be biased to warmer temperatures.

However, issues in New Zealand and the Fennoscandian region are also found in Australia, proving the point that the compiled data cannot be taken at face value, and the adjustments to get them into the form we usually see need to be comprehensively audited.

You can read the article at the link and there’s also a link to WUWT re NZ data – and read David’s bio at his ‘about the author’ link on his blog

It would certainly seem that the ‘comprehensive audit’ in respect to NIWA’s 7SS has not occurred

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

This Dr Campbell?
—————————————————————————————————————————
Specialist
Dr Douglas Campbell

* Auckland District Health Board (ADHB) >
* Auckland DHB Anaesthesia

Qualifications

BM 1988 Soton; FRCA 1994
Full NZ Registration Date

12 August 1999
Vocational Scope

Anaesthesia

http://www.healthpoint.co.nz/default,38903.sm

Richard Treadgold
Guest

Oh, you clever lad! But who knows?

val majkus
Guest
val majkus

here’s a fascinating historical account though it’s limited to Australia
el gordo at Dr Marohassy’s blog directed me and which other readers might be interested in
http://climatehistory.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/Environmental-History-2010-Gergis-envhis_emq079.pdf

the influence of climate on the first european
SETTLEMENT
OF AUSTRALIA: A COMPARISON OF WEATHER JOURNALS, DOCUMENTARY
DATA AND PALAEOCLIMATE RECORDS, 1788–1793
ABSTRACT

I mention it here because models don’t have the ability to hindcast but it’s nice to know what the history was from the weather journals and other records

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Val, I see this report in The Australian:-

Flash flood hits Toowoomba

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/flash-flood-hits-toowoomba/story-fn3dxity-1225985100058

Are you on high ground?

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Another report in the Brisbane Times

Emergency situation emerging in Toowoomba

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/environment/weather/emergency-situation-emerging-in-toowoomba-20110110-19kti.html

Does not look good

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

This article is sobering too:-

Floods steal precious topsoil – and future goes down drain

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/floods-steal-precious-topsoil–and-future-goes-down-drain-20110110-19knq.html

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

”Prior to [European] settlement, every river estuary ran clear, even during flood times. Today’s rivers run brown with the lifeblood of the landscape. That did not used to happen. By keeping water, soil and fertility in the landscape, the climate was moderated and kept cooler.”

val majkus
Guest
val majkus

RichardC thanks for your concern; I’ve made a comment on Dr Marohassy’s blog about the floods steal precious topsoil link by Sheehan
here’s the blog and comment

http://jennifermarohasy.com/blog/2011/01/floods-steal-precious-topsoil/#comments
val
and here’s a comment by el gordo at
http://jennifermarohasy.com/blog/2011/01/annual-climate-statement-bureau-of-meteorology/#comments

now the historical link posted by el gordo is fascinating (for temperature enthusiasists it starts on page 9 I think; search for Dawes)

as to Toowoomba’s situation thank you for the thought; yes, our back yard flooded but with the help of my neighbour who is a police officer I cleared the storm water drains but Toowoomba has had its second torrential downpour within a week – there are reports of cars being swept away but no damage to life; but thanks so much for the concern

By the way all the river which falls in Toowoomba flows into the Condamine which flows into the Murray basin

val majkus
Guest
val majkus

Richard the best spot to explore that comment of yours referring to the SMH article is http://jennifermarohasy.com/blog/2011/01/floods-steal-precious-topsoil/
there’s also a link there to an article by David F. Smith, former Director-General of Agriculture for Victoria, and his article ‘Green Myths About Australian Farming’ first published at Quadrant Online here:
http://www.quadrant.org.au/magazine/issue/2009/4/green-myths-about-australian-farming

the SMH article is misleading to say the least

Flipper
Guest

It is ironic that when the Queensland rains started Ministers in Gillard’s Government still had AGW briefing (papers) warnings fresh in their minds.
The incoming Government’s Strategic Brief for the Climate Change and Energy Efficiency portfolio, dated September 2010 stated:

“Climate models project that reduced rainfall is likely over most of Australia in the future”.

A lengthy sojourn talking with Australian news commentators and business decision-makers over the past month convinces me that apart from some looney academics, green dumies, labour professional poiliticians and ‘crats, few Australians believe in the AGW rubbish.

Richard, your letter is good stuff and if it is not published go to the Press Council as a test case!

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