The BOM discovers UHI

Australia's Gold Coast

UPDATE 1: 15 NOVEMBER

UPDATE 2: 17 NOVEMBER

There’s some excitement around blogdom with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) apparently questioning the UHI adjustments it’s made to the temperature record.

The actual press release

But the story is proving difficult to pin down. I’ve located the BOM Media Release of 13 October, 2010, which says (emphasis added):

Wednesday 13 October 2010
MEDIA RELEASE

Hot cities

If you thought our cities are getting warmer, you’re right.

Bureau of Meteorology researchers have found that daytime temperatures in our cities are warming more rapidly than those of the surrounding countryside and that this is due to the cities themselves.

Bureau climate scientist, Belinda Campbell, said: “we’ve known for a while that city night-time temperatures have been warmer because the heat’s retained after sunset just that much longer than the countryside, and that city day-time temperatures have been warming too.”

But what we didn’t know was whether city day-time temperatures were also warmer because of the urbanisation or whether it was due to the overall warming of the planet associated with the enhanced greenhouse effect.”

“We can now confidently say that the reason our cities are warmer and warming faster than the surrounding countryside during the day is because of the urbanisation — the fact that all those offices, houses and factories absorb the heat and retain it a little bit longer,” Ms Campbell said.

On average, the enhanced greenhouse effect is responsible for about 0.5 to 1.0 degree of observed warming around the globe (more in some areas, less in other areas).

The additional effect of urbanisation on warming varies from city to city (depending on the buildings and open parkland close to the observation site).

The research team analysed data from 70 sites in the Bureau’s meteorological data archive in order to quantify how much the increases in day-time temperature can be attributed to urbanisation and how much to the enhanced greenhouse effect.

The sites were mostly from towns with populations ranging from 500 to 100,000, with a handful being either in cities with more than 100,000, or in isolated locations with hardly anybody for hundreds of kilometres.

Ms Campbell is presenting the results of the team’s work at the Australia – New Zealand Climate Forum in Hobart on Thursday (14 October, 2010).

There’s no mention of their questioning the temperature record. Reason is given to do so, but no sign that they do, so bloggers might be premature in claiming the BOM are recanting their official temperature record.

So let’s ask them

On the face of it, since Belinda said the reason Australian cities are warmer than the countryside is urbanisation, this work weakens the case for disastrous future warming caused by humanity. But it is a conditional conclusion which depends on the actual quantity of warming caused by the UHI effect.

We need to find out the amount of warming the BOM attributes to the newly-discovered UHI. So I have today emailed them asking for information about the team’s results. Here’s an extract from my email:

On 13 October, 2010, the BOM issued a Media Release (available here) quoting one of your climate scientists, Miss Belinda Campbell, announcing the discovery of the Urban Heat Island effect in Australian towns and cities. … I would like to know if you could send us the presentation of the team’s work? Or if it’s available on the Internet? Anything related to this announcement would be helpful.

Yes, there’s a scrap of tongue-in-cheek humour there which I could not resist. I’ll let you know what they say, when and if they respond.

More to come

In the meantime, this result is important and, if it hasn’t yet put doubts about the temp record into the minds of BOM’s scientists, it ought to. If it doesn’t do that, it must at the very least raise doubts about the effects and the speed of CAGW. So I’m putting together a post looking at BOM’s past statements relating to man-made climate change to chart their attitude changes.

UPDATE 1 15 November

An anonymous correspondent at the BOM has sent the following reply. As it contains no closing full stop I question whether I received the whole abstract. I have asked for the proposed publication and date. I would be grateful for comments on the abstract and its relation, if any, to the claims that BOM is questioning its UHI adjustments. I was under the impression that they might now begin making adjustments — it would be a step forward. But I may have been mistaken.

Good morning Richard

The abstract is below. The paper has not been published yet.

Urbanisation and maximum temperature

Harvey Stern1, Belinda Campbell1, Michael Efron, John Cornall-Reilly1, and John McBride2

1Victorian Regional Office, Bureau of Meteorology, Box 1636, Melbourne, 3001, Australia.

2Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Box 1289, Melbourne, 3001, Australia.

The Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM) is used to compare trends in maximum temperature (MAXTEMP) at Sydney and Melbourne with those at other (less urbanised) Australian localities. By this means, the relative extent to which MAXTEMP increases in those cities can be attributed to urbanisation, the enhanced greenhouse effect, and other causes, is quantified.

The influence of cities on overnight temperatures is well documented. However, their influence on daytime temperatures is less well documented.

Sydney and Melbourne MAXTEMP data are compared with other ADAM data sets and are found to be increasing at a faster rate than elsewhere.

For both localities, annual MAXTEMP data are statistically modelled over various control periods using MAXTEMP data at surrounding non-urban stations as input. Thereby, sequences of non-urbanised MAXTEMP can be constructed for the hypothetical circumstance of the cities not being built.

Synoptic stratification of daily data shows that a recent “jump” in the Melbourne series is due to buildings constructed immediately to the south of the site.

In contrast to the current study, Torok’s (1996) PhD work identified, and adjusted for, “… jumps in the time series due to non-climatic changes… (and this consequently removed) …urbanisation signals from the time series”. Torok’s adjustments have been applied to the derivation of the Bureau of Meteorology’s high quality data sets (HQDS).

The current study’s approach (using ADAM data sets) has been to identify, and preserve, the urbanisation signals in the time series.

As would be expected, MAXTEMP rising trends in the Melbourne and Sydney HQDS (with the urbanisation signals removed) are found to be slower than those in the corresponding ADAM data sets (without the urbanisation signal removed)

UPDATE 2: 17 NOVEMBER

Ken Stewart has kindly sent us (through Val Majkus) a paper Ken referred to: A historical annual temperature dataset for Australia, by Simon Torok and Neville Nicholls in 1996. You can download the paper from our Files area.

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val majkus
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val majkus

Here goes; I have no scientific training or expertise so hope I get this accurate but if I don’t I’m sure someone will correct me The BOM temperature data consists of (using BOM’S words) 1. The Australian Reference Climate Station (RCS) network established for high quality, long-term climate monitoring, particularly with regard to climate change analysis. 2. High Quality HQ dataset containing the Operational monitoring of Australia’s changing climate 3. Historical climate data (raw data) provided in both graphical and textual formats at climate sites. Graphs can be viewed as either mean/total data or as anomalies from the standard 1961-1990 base period (1971-2000 is used for pan evaporation due to shortness of record). Daily data are only plotted from 1995 onwards to avoid over-crowding the graphs, but the full daily record is available as text. The HQ dataset is the set on which the official Australian temperature analyses are based. The network is shown at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/hqsites/. You can google BOM High Quality to go to the BOM page. For temperature enthusiasts an explanation of the methodology is here ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/ncc/www/change/HQannualT/HQannualT_info.pdf Homogenity is the key. A non-urban set of 99 stations from the updated HQ… Read more »

val majkus
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val majkus

I’m a bit depressed that noo-ne has provided an additional comment
I’m looking for negatives and/or positives to my comment
H’mmm I’ve asked for comments from some Aussie connections
hopefully they’ll reply
My view still is that BOM have recanted with regard to UHI but how far it will go is a matter I believe it is not prepared to indicate
If anyone including the BOM has an alternate view then please say so;or ….

val majkus
Guest
val majkus

and i suppose the same question could be asked of NIWA

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

“I’m a bit depressed that noo-ne has provided an additional comment” Val, I’m not sure I can offer much, I have just been following what you have been doing and also I’m probably more interested in satellite, ocean heat content and model issues so land temps are on my periphery. FWIW here goes. My understanding from what I’ve seen at WUWT and elsewhere is that UHI decreases in significance as the size of the urban expanse increases. There are studies and blog posts around that I can’t put my finger on at the moment but could hunt down if you wanted (search UHI at WUWT). For example, an additional 100,000 population to a city of 1, 000,000 will have less effect than say an additional 10,000 to a city of 100,000. i.e. the temperature increase will be significant in the latter but negligible in the former (don’t quote me on this). The main point I think is that in any adjustment for UHI, the early temperatures remain fixed and the later temps are adjusted downwards. UHI influenced temperatures are best discarded in my view; otherwise all that’s being measured is global warming due… Read more »

Ken Stewart
Guest

Gday Val: I’m back again. BOM are really saying they haven’t got a clue, which is basically what Torok and Nicholls said in 1996. They know there is UHI but (up til now anyway) haven’t been able to quantify it. The asbstract says “MAXTEMP rising trends in the Melbourne and Sydney HQDS (with the urbanisation signals removed) are found to be slower than those in the corresponding ADAM data sets (without the urbanisation signal removed)” which is fine; but how much is the urbanisation signal from the ADAM datasets? UHI is very strong in Sydney and Melbourne I agree, but is also distinctly present in many small towns. It depends more on the actual surroundings than the surrounding population. You can see this when there are station moves from a town centre to an airport e.g. Bowen, Charters Towers, Cobar. Even when the move was back in the 1940s. But occasionally you see the opposite- a warming e.g. Cardwell. Local factors apply. By the way there are 100 non-urban sites, but 15 of these used to be classified as urban but were included because otherwise the dataset would not have been large enough.… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Here’s a serious heat island at the Glenbrook steel mill south west of Auckland.

1500 Deg C in the melters and lots of carbon action 24/7/365 – a global warmists nightmare.

If the heat from all the furnaces around the world actually was “trapped” by GHG’s, we would have all fried long ago.

This illustrates the fallacy of a globally averaged temperature.

val majkus
Guest
val majkus

Richard you may be interested in Warwick Hughes’ post How NASA GISS inserts warming into USA rural T data http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=27 this is dated 2006 but Trawling through files from 2001 I came across this rare example of an email from Dr Jim Hansen that actually gives an insight into what GISS does with temperature data.but quoting For background I have my page commenting on Jones et al use of Miami. http://www.warwickhughes.com/climate/miami.htm Then my page on the five degree grid cell covering much of Florida and commenting on Jones 1994 additions. http://www.warwickhughes.com/climate/florida.htm Then this page commenting on GISS data which inserts warming into rural data west of Miami. http://www.warwickhughes.com/climate/giss_fl.htm and he has other GISS articles (just search on his search button) some of which have comments where commentators have noticed warming adjustments to rural data to meet urban trends in IPCC, Jones et al, Surface Record | 22 Comments » and an article NASA GISS data does not back BoM hottest decade claim (Jan 2010) Warwick’s comment I think a fair statement would be that given the data quality in the outback – it looks unlikely the 2000-2009 decade could be warmer than 1990-1999… Read more »

val majkus
Guest
val majkus

and Richard more of Warwick’s work At http://www.warwickhughes.com/climate/bom.htm Warwick says ‘Internationally the BoM does not have things all its own way, NASA / GISS publish on their web site (see www links) UHI adjusted trends for Australian cities and also have for download SE Australian rural records that show no warming since late 19 C, which the BoM say are incorrect’ the comment at http://www.warwickhughes.com/climate/gissbom.htm is posted 27/9/2000 and Warwick says ‘This page presents three Australian State Capital temperature records compared to nearby rural or more rural neighbours. This is a significant area for study because south eastern Australia has probably the best set of long term rural temperature records in the southern hemisphere. GISS / NASA adjustments for urban warming are presented in the case of the State Capitals, contrasting with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) adjustments.’ The differerence is stark with BoM finding much warming over SE Australia since late 19 C while NASA finds little trend. At http://www.warwickhughes.com/climate/ 26, June, 2005, Warwick has a site which in his words exposes the errors and distortions in temperature records used by the IPCC as evidence of “global warming”, Warwick says the… Read more »

val majkus
Guest
val majkus

Ken thank you for your contribution and for your correction of my error (100 non urban sites and not 99) but it’s a bit concerning when 15 previous urban classified station are included with I’m still assuming no correction for UHI By the way do you have a copy of the Torok and Nicholls paper and the subsequent paper which updated it and if so could you please provide a link on this page I like what you say BOM are saying they recognise UHI, including in maxima (everyone thought it was mainly in minima) UHI has a huge affect and I doubt whether proper adjustments are being made for it have you seen Warwick Hughes comment http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/index.php?s=melbourne%27s+ January 13th, 2010 by Warwick Hughes On the night of the 11th-12 of Jan 2010 Melbourne sweated through an uncomfortably hot night. Just a couple of media refs will give you the gist but Google could find more no doubt. There is talk of Melbourne’s “..equal hottest night ever.” But I see no sign of balancing statements which should have refered to two facts. [1] The record equal temperature was measured in the centre of… Read more »

Warwick Hughes
Guest

Val and Richard – I admire your efforts to understand the BoM. It will be interesting to see the “Urbanisation and maximum temperature” paper by – Harvey Stern1, Belinda Campbell1, Michael Efron, John Cornall-Reilly1, and John McBride2.
– when it emerges peer reviewed and published.
Of course I doubt any of us common herd will ever get to examine their ADAM data.
On the face of the authors statements there seems to be some conflict with the very influential 1996 work of Torok & Nicholls which heavily corrected BoM data leaving an IPCC compliant warming trend.

I suppose you have seen this ten year old paper;
“Urban heat island features of southeast Australian towns”
http://www.bom.gov.au/amm/docs/2001/torok_hres.pdf

Then there is our 64 station review by Hughes and Balling , “Eastern Australia temperature variations 1930-1992”
http://www.warwickhughes.com/papers/eastoz.htm
The page 19 graphic;
http://www.warwickhughes.com/papers/Hbeoz19.gif
sums up changes in mean T and DTR for stations with population ranging from 1000 up to a million and more.over Eastern Australia.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

“So it leaves you wondering about the accuracy of satellite data as well” The data quality issues are not much different to land series issues. Basically two parts: measuring equipment (siting, drift, calibration etc) and data management/quality control. The same issue of errors by paid custodians of data being uncovered by unpaid scrutineers is occurring with land and satellite series. These errors would probably have gone unnoticed if it wasn’t for the AGW-climate change debate. Re UHI. I found this on the CESM Homepage: “Capturing heat islands in climate models” http://www2.ucar.edu/staffnotes/research/2563/capturing-heat-islands-climate-models Showing a satellite temperature image of Atlanta, USA contrasted with a vegetation map that demonstrates evaporative cooling. From the blurb: Results from the modeling experiment show that present-day annual mean urban air temperatures are up to 4°C (7.2°F) warmer than temperatures for surrounding rural areas, a finding that is important for verifying the model’s accuracy since scientists already have observational evidence that urban areas are warmer than surrounding rural areas. “This study demonstrates that climate models need to begin to account for urban surfaces to more realistically evaluate the impact of climate change on people in the environments where they live,” (Just… Read more »

Ken Stewart
Guest

Hi Val
The 2 papers are:
Torok, S.J. and Nicholls, N. 1996. A historical annual temperature dataset for Australia. Australian Meteorological Magazine, 45, 251-260. (I’ll email it to you)
and
http://www.giub.unibe.ch/~dmarta/publications.dir/Della-Marta2004.pdf
Ken

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

From

“Urban heat island features of southeast Australian towns”

Results from Karl
et al. (1988) suggest an exponential relationship
between mean urban-rural annual temperature difference
(T – *u-r) and urban population (POP) of:

T –*u-r = a(POP)0.45 …3

The coefficient, a, was found to be -3.9 x 10-4 for maximum
temperatures, and 3.61 x 10-3 for minimum temperatures.
In towns with populations below 10,000, a
was found to be -0.77 x 10-3 for maximum temperatures
and 5.12 x 10-3 for minimum temperatures

So the effect diminishes as the population increases.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

From my comment up-thread “I’m probably stating what everyone already knows but from what I can gather, the contentious issue is that the IPCC does not consider the downwards adjustment for UHI to be of any importance contrary to the evidence.” From AR4 WGI Urban heat island effects are real but local, and have not biased the large-scale trends. A number of recent studies indicate that effects of urbanisation and land use change on the land-based temperature record are negligible (0.006ºC per decade) as far as hemispheric- and continental-scale averages are concerned because the very real but local effects are avoided or accounted for in the data sets used. In any case, they are not present in the SST component of the record. Increasing evidence suggests that urban heat island effects extend to changes in precipitation, clouds and DTR, with these detectable as a ‘weekend effect’ owing to lower pollution and other effects during weekends. I’m not in the habit however, of taking IPCC science as gospel given FAQ 1.3 What is the Greenhouse Effect? Because the Earth is much colder than the Sun, it radiates at much longer wavelengths, primarily in the… Read more »

val majkus
Guest
val majkus

Warwick Ken and Richard thanks so much for your valuable contributions; Ken has now sent me the Torok paper – it’s a 10 page PDF so I could copy it here if that would be helpful –

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

“Of all the vectors of radiation, in all directions from a GHG molecule, only one will be “back to Earth”.”

Better qualify this I suppose.

Only one at right angles (assuming that it is not intercepted by .another molecule on the way down).

There will be more than one but as the angle of incidence becomes more acute, what minimal heating effect there is (on land – non-existent on the lakes and oceans), is diminished even further.

In other words – the IPCC’s “much of” is actually “a lessor proportion of” and the 70% of that, that strikes the oceans and lakes has no effect whatsoever.

DUH.

val majkus
Guest
val majkus

Now that Warwick has kindly pointed out to me the name of the paper which is referred to in the media release I’ve managed to track down this info: http://ams.confex.com/ams/91Annual/webprogram/Paper184863.html Harvey Stern, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and B. Campbell, M. Efron, J. Cornall-Reilly, and J. McBride The Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM) is used to compare trends in maximum temperature (MAXTEMP) at Sydney and Melbourne with those at other (less urbanised) Australian localities. By this means, the relative extent to which MAXTEMP increases in those cities can be attributed to urbanisation, the enhanced greenhouse effect, and other causes, is quantified. The influence of cities on overnight temperatures is well documented. However, their influence on daytime temperatures is less well documented. Sydney and Melbourne MAXTEMP data are compared with other ADAM data sets and are found to be increasing at a faster rate than elsewhere. For example, Sydney’s MAXTEMP is increasing at a linear rate that is +0.065 deg C per decade faster than that of Newcastle, whilst Melbourne’s MAXTEMP is increasing at a linear rate that is +0.050 deg C per decade faster than that of Ballarat. More generally, Sydney… Read more »

val majkus
Guest
val majkus

Now that Warwick’s pointed out the name of the paper (presumably referred to in the media release) I’ve located this info http://ams.confex.com/ams/91Annual/webprogram/Paper184863.html Wednesday, 26 January 2011 605/610 (Washington State Convention Center) Harvey Stern, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and B. Campbell, M. Efron, J. Cornall-Reilly, and J. McBride The Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM) is used to compare trends in maximum temperature (MAXTEMP) at Sydney and Melbourne with those at other (less urbanised) Australian localities. By this means, the relative extent to which MAXTEMP increases in those cities can be attributed to urbanisation, the enhanced greenhouse effect, and other causes, is quantified. The influence of cities on overnight temperatures is well documented. However, their influence on daytime temperatures is less well documented. Sydney and Melbourne MAXTEMP data are compared with other ADAM data sets and are found to be increasing at a faster rate than elsewhere. For example, Sydney’s MAXTEMP is increasing at a linear rate that is +0.065 deg C per decade faster than that of Newcastle, whilst Melbourne’s MAXTEMP is increasing at a linear rate that is +0.050 deg C per decade faster than that of Ballarat. More generally,… Read more »

val majkus
Guest
val majkus

I’ve picked this up from Warwick Hughes naming of the report (thanks Warwick) http://ams.confex.com/ams/91Annual/webprogram/Paper184863.html Wednesday, 26 January 2011 605/610 (Washington State Convention Center) Harvey Stern, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and B. Campbell, M. Efron, J. Cornall-Reilly, and J. McBride The Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM) is used to compare trends in maximum temperature (MAXTEMP) at Sydney and Melbourne with those at other (less urbanised) Australian localities. By this means, the relative extent to which MAXTEMP increases in those cities can be attributed to urbanisation, the enhanced greenhouse effect, and other causes, is quantified. The influence of cities on overnight temperatures is well documented. However, their influence on daytime temperatures is less well documented. Sydney and Melbourne MAXTEMP data are compared with other ADAM data sets and are found to be increasing at a faster rate than elsewhere. For example, Sydney’s MAXTEMP is increasing at a linear rate that is +0.065 deg C per decade faster than that of Newcastle, whilst Melbourne’s MAXTEMP is increasing at a linear rate that is +0.050 deg C per decade faster than that of Ballarat. More generally, Sydney and Melbourne MAXTEMP data are compared with… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Got myself O/T and oversimplified, so from G&T 2009 for the physics:- Al Gore confuses absorption/emission with reflection. Unfortunately, this is also done implicitly and explicitly in many climatologic papers, often by using the vaguely defi ned terms “re-emission”, “re-radiation” and “backradiation”. 3.5.2 Reflection When the jump of the refractive index occurs within a length of the order of a wavelength, there will be a reflection, which is large at high absorption. In the case of gases this is only possible for radio waves of a comparatively long wave length in the ionosphere, which has an electrical conductivity, at a diagonal angle of incidence. There is no reflection in the homogeneous absorbing range. 3.5.3 Absorption and Emission ……it is impossible to describe the volumes of gases with the model of black cavity radiation. Since thermal radiation is electromagnetic radiation, this radiation would have to be caused by thermal motion in case of gases, which normally does not work effectively at room temperatures. At the temperatures of stars the situation is di fferent: The energy levels of the atoms are thermally excited by impacts 3.5.4 Re-emission This assumption is called the assumption of Local Thermodynamical Equilibrium… Read more »

val majkus
Guest
val majkus

Hi Richard; wondering if your site is down; I’ve tried to post something intermittently for the last 4 hours or so

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Not my site Val – Richard Treadgold’s.

I’ve noticed the intermittent unavailability too.

Australis
Guest
Australis

Yes please, Val. It rejects the Rhoades & Salinger (1992) paper for being too subjective, and develops its own subjective methodology.

val majkus
Guest
val majkus

Australis I’m having trouble posting and sent it to Richard Treadgold yesterday
He was I thought going to post it

val majkus
Guest
val majkus

Oh good that one went through! sorry I can’t copy my PDF file – if anyone who wants it can give me their e mail I can e mail it though; As to the BOM paper I’ve picked this up from Warwick Hughes naming of the report (thanks Warwick) http://ams.confex.com/ams/91Annual/webprogram/Paper184863.html Wednesday, 26 January 2011 605/610 (Washington State Convention Center) Harvey Stern, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and B. Campbell, M. Efron, J. Cornall-Reilly, and J. McBride The Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM) is used to compare trends in maximum temperature (MAXTEMP) at Sydney and Melbourne with those at other (less urbanised) Australian localities. By this means, the relative extent to which MAXTEMP increases in those cities can be attributed to urbanisation, the enhanced greenhouse effect, and other causes, is quantified. The influence of cities on overnight temperatures is well documented. However, their influence on daytime temperatures is less well documented. Sydney and Melbourne MAXTEMP data are compared with other ADAM data sets and are found to be increasing at a faster rate than elsewhere. For example, Sydney’s MAXTEMP is increasing at a linear rate that is +0.065 deg C per decade… Read more »

val majkus
Guest
val majkus

Australis: In the meantime check out the papers referred to by Warwick Hughes above.
I suppose you have seen this ten year old paper:
“Urban heat island features of southeast Australian towns”
http://www.bom.gov.au/amm/docs/2001/torok_hres.pdf

Then there is our 64 station review by Hughes and Balling, “Eastern Australia temperature variations 1930-1992″
http://www.warwickhughes.com/papers/eastoz.htm
The page 19 graphic;
http://www.warwickhughes.com/papers/Hbeoz19.gif
sums up changes in mean T and DTR for stations with population ranging from 1000 up to a million and more over Eastern Australia.

Richard Treadgold
Guest

Val:

I’ve only just had the time to take a look at this. Thanks for letting me know about it! Your posts went to the spam folder. The problem was with the large number of links in the post; as it’s a characteristic of spam, it triggers the spam detection software. I’ll investigate to see whether I can exempt posts for particular senders, then it will stop being a problem for you.

I had a quick look at your posts and there seem to be differences between them; I don’t have time to compare them word for word, so identify any duplicates you want deleted and I’ll get rid of them.

If you notice your post vanish in future, do send me an email directly, because I don’t see the spam comments any more. I had to put a stop to it, since the site gets up to 200 – 250 spam messages a day.

Cheers.

val majkus
Guest
val majkus

Thanks Richard; I think I sent very similar posts yesterday at 7.28 pm & 11.18 pm yesterday (16/11); they’re basically the same as the one I sent today (17/11 at 8.32 am) so delete whichever ones you want; or leave them; up to you
In relation to the BOM as yet unpublished paper I think Warwick Hughes has nailed it “I doubt if any of us common herd will ever get to see the ADAM data)
In the meantime Australis is asking for the Torok paper I e mailed to you yesterday; could you post that in the article; as you know it’s 10 pages

Richard Treadgold
Guest

The Torok paper is added now to the Files area and mentioned as an update to the post. Thanks to you, Val, and Ken Stewart.

val majkus
Guest
val majkus

I picked up this very interesting paper from a commentator at Dr Marohasy’s site
(thanks cohenite)
http://landshape.org/images/StockwellCSP.ppt.pdf
Negating climate change policy by
Dr David RB Stockwell, former consultant to the
Australian Government, biodiversity scientist at
San Diego Supercomputer Center, University of
California San Diego and the University of
California Santa Barbara, publications in major
journals with over 1000 citations

Here’s his website http://landshape.org/about-the-author/
There’s a comment there by Warwick Hughes referring to this page
http://landshape.org/enm/inquiry-into-long-term-meteorological-forecasting-in-australia/

The Committee recommends that CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology provide to the Australian Government a report with detailed explanatory information as to why a particular dynamic forecasting model or system was chosen for use in Australia. The report should be completed by the end of 2010.

As Warwick says something to watch for

val majkus
Guest
val majkus

and here’s another fascinating link (thanks el gordo) http://www.holtonweather.com/WHAT%20IS%20THE%20MAIN%20FACTOR%20CONTROLLING%20THE%20MURRAY%20DARLING%20BASIN%20SYSTEM%20RAINFALL.pdf conclusions: The results show that the Sinusoidal Solar-Lunar Cycles have controlled the general Murray Darling Basin (South QLD-NSW-VIC-SA) Rainfall Trends from 1900 to 2006….During the critical Autumn to Spring & River- Dam inflow- Irrigation and Dry-land farming period….And the most helpful information about this close connection, is that we are able, from the Copeland and Watts Sinusoidal Model, to forecast with a high degree of confidence the next 30 years or so Murray Darling Basin General Rainfall & Dam Inflow Trends…As the future plotted Sinusoidal Model Trace is based on regular and recurring cycles that have not altered significantly in the past, and should not alter significantly in the future…..Therefore, any general Murray Darling Basin Southern Wet Season General Rainfall Trends that we can forecast from the Sinusoidal Solar-Lunar Model are highly likely to be accurate general trend rainfall & dam inflow forecasts. It is the firm opinion of the author that weather, ocean and rainfall patterns are cyclic. They always have been, and always will continue to do so…….And that any dire predictions of continuing & worsening drought in the Murray Darling Basin,… Read more »

Australis
Guest
Australis

Val

I was astonished at the candour of BOM in this quote:

“MAXTEMPs at Sydney and Melbourne are found to be increasing, respectively, at rates 0.080 deg C per decade and 0.071 deg C per decade faster than the average temperature at the 73 sites”.

So large cities experience UHI effects at the average rate (for daily maxima) of approx 0.75°C/century. As Belinda Campbell pointed out, the effects on daily minima are better known, and therefore probably greater.

Ergo, the UHI effect in large cities is greater than the total global warming recorded during the past century. Whether the effect is the same in smaller urban areas is not known, but the authority cited by Richard C suggests it is even greater in faster growing towns. And it is notable that BOM purportedly exclude ALL towns with populations above 10,000.

This seems to put paid to the murky paper by Jones & Wang (1992?) which has underpinned all the IPCC temp conclusions for nearly 20 years.

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