Don’t lie to me Nick Smith — 1

Image from TV series 'Lie to me'

A CCG reader reported on Nick Smith’s presentation on the ETS last Tuesday (I’m not sure where, as I couldn’t see a Tuesday meeting in his published schedule) and mentioned his use of a combined CO2/temperature graph showing a good correlation (h/t to Bulaman). He mentioned its resemblance to the famous hockey stick graph of late 20th Century global temperatures. It deserves a separate post. He says:

The road show here on Tuesday was well attended and a polite reasoned session. The 2 cops in the back of the room after the Gore fiasco might also have moderated things a bit! The rationale for being in the ETS was effectively the precautionary principle jacked up to cost us $1.5 billion. The evidence was our hockey stick friend with CO2 and temp graphed together.

At the Royal Akarana Yacht Club presentation on Thursday which yours truly attended, the combined graph Smith showed us resembles the Mann hockey stick graph, but it is different. It comes from the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change; you can see it in a brochure at the NZ government Climate Change site. The brochures were handed around at the meeting.

This is the graph:

CO2 and temperature, 1880 to present

Spurious, unscientific correlation

The temperature portion is similar to the HadCRUT3 temperature record since 1850 available at Junk Science. Smith’s version is rather compressed horizontally to produce a steep rise at the end. But the rise is less than half a degree, which is undetectable without instruments — so the intent is surely to alarm, more than to impart the truth.

The CO2 record over the same period also shows it rising steeply at the end. However, a correct depiction of rising atmospheric CO2 is shown by the blue line in the HadCRUT3 graph cited above; the rate of rise is slight, becoming steeper over the last 50 years. I believe it is weakly correlated to the concurrent temperature (I’m no statistician).

The unscientific, deeply sickening aspect of the graph Smith uses is the way the CO2 record is matched to the temperature record by the simple expedient of altering the scale on the Y-axis: it begins at 250 so it exhibits a wonderful, but entirely spurious, correlation to temperature since 1880, mimicking the same steep rise over recent years. Our government and MfE bureaucrats think it’s acceptable because it’s been produced by UK scientists.

A scurrilous graph

But it’s a piece of bald-faced chicanery; it conveys incorrect information (in other words, it lies), it is addressed to the householder, so it’s aimed at ordinary people and children (in other words, at people who can’t know it lies) and we should all be ashamed to be led by anyone who adopts deception (in other words, who tells lies). I almost hope that someone sues me for libel for saying this, for it would give me an opportunity to publicly expose their lies.

Perhaps they think they’re secure against the allegation of lying, since they don’t use words to convey the lie, however pictures communicate facts just as well as words, else they wouldn’t be used. We must ask NIWA publicly if they approve the use of this scurrilous graph in official material, because obviously they do.

Deception falsifies their belief in dangerous human influence

If humanity is responsible for a dangerous influence on the Earth’s climate, and if the agency for that influence is carbon dioxide, then there will be, of necessity, a correlation between CO2 and temperature over time. That correlation would be evident without falsifying the data.

The fact that the UK Dept of Energy and Climate Change, our own Ministry for the Environment and our own Minister for Climate Change Issues distort the data demonstrates that the raw data are not correlated and thus belies their evident belief in a dangerous human influence on the Earth’s climate.

Is there a better conclusion to be drawn from their deception?

Confirmation bias not conspiracy

I hesitate before suggesting anything resembling a world-wide conspiracy to prove dangerous AGW, for, as many climate alarmists point out, it is highly improbable. But the above are the facts, and, since this graph is produced by a government department in the UK and used down under by at least two of our government departments, it is without doubt both at a high level and world-wide – but surely it is a conspiracy only superficially, created in fact by a shared anticipation of the truth, or confirmation bias.

This shows how it can come about that we find the same tricks, lies and subterfuges around the world, though the people responsible might never have met – one person stretches the truth and others of a similar mind believe it, because they expect it to be true and they simply don’t examine it.

P.S.: I want to say more about this meeting, for finding false facts in it furnishes far too many for one article.

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Andy
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Andy

Jo Nova has a better graph here

http://joannenova.com.au/2009/05/shock-global-temperatures-driven-by-us-postal-charges/

It proves conclusively (using Nick Smith’s logic) that US Postage charges are driving warming, not CO2

Richard Treadgold
Guest

Hee, hee. I love that graph.

Andy
Guest
Andy

A review of “The Hockey Stick Illusion” has just been published on Quadrant Online

http://www.quadrant.org.au/magazine/issue/2010/7-8/the-tree-ring-circus

qfrealist
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qfrealist

This is really scurrilous alright. If they want to convince the public of the internationally criminal scam of AGW and TAX us this is just what they need. Nick Smith should be taken to task over this deliberate lie. Well nature will prove them wrong in the next few years as the PDO global cooling takes place not that will stop taxes!

david winter
Guest

I’m no statistician

I’d say. Correlation is about variance, not absolute numbers. It makes sense to display graphs like these scaled so that the variance in each dataset accounts for about the same amount of room. Lead me show you an example. Do you think the number of seats taken by Act will be correlated with the number of party votes received by that party? I did, but then I made a graph as per your idea that we need to start at 0 (can’t be squeezing up one axis after all!):

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v387/science_boy/act.png?t=1280806741

Of course their really is a correlation, the coefficient is 0.996! There is nothing scandalous about scaling each axis to show the real data (I think it’s actually better to just to do a scatter-plot of co2 on temperature, which would also make the correlation obvious, but of course then you miss the temporal scale)

Richard Treadgold
Guest

I appreciate your explanation, David. And you’ve slowed me down to think again.

First, you haven’t been too hard on my statistics, so I won’t frown overmuch on your spelling: “Lead” me show you… “their” really is a correlation… ;>) .

I’m enthralled to learn that axis rescaling might be a valid technique to display the truth of a situation.

But surely it is still misleading in the case I cite, since the lack of correlation is so obvious early in the period, when CO2 rises steadily from 290 to 310, while temperature varies greatly. How can atmospheric concentrations of CO2, rising at a constant rate, cause cooling, then warming, then cooling, then warming?

david winter
Guest

No one has ever said that CO2 is the only driver of climate, just that it’s a major one and the only one capable of explaining the most recent warming.

Before about the 1960s C02 was one of a bunch of forcing (solar pushing temps up and volcanoes and sulphates depressing them) that contributed to temperatures. Since then greenhouse emissions have increased greatly, and they’ve been shown to be the major driver of recent change (since solar, and other forcings can’t explain it).

Richard Treadgold
Guest

No one has ever said that CO2 is the only driver of climate…

You and I know that, but the other drivers are seldom mentioned. For example, why does the government pamphlet downplay or ignore water vapour and clouds? It’s easy to explain the warming if you know about clouds but for some reason they are not favoured by those who speak for the IPCC. Only about a 2% variance in cloud cover would adequately account for the warming, according to Spencer.

But the important thing to point out is that CO2 is the only climate influence anyone is trying to regulate; that sends a message, don’t you think? Is it any wonder everybody focuses on CO2? That they think nothing else affects the temperature? Even though there are many influences on it?

Yet, to say it must be CO2 because we don’t know what else it might be is nothing but a blatant admission of ignorance. Not a scientific process, that.

Now, tell me, what about before 1940 — what sent the temp down then up? There wasn’t much CO2 then.

david winter
Guest

Well, this looks a little like the Gish Gallop, but let’s go.

I suppose the pamphlet doesn’t say much about clouds because it’s not at all clear whether clouds amplify or dampen warming. And if Spencer is Roy Spencer I don’t think I’d quote him in a post that start off accusing people of cooking graphs.

The reason people talk about greenhouse gas is that’s the one we are responsible for, and more importantly the one we can do something about.

The attribution of recent warming to CO2 is not a “we don’t what else” argument, it’s that we can very happily account for recent warming if we include anthropogeneic forcings. And we can’t if don’t.

I have no idea why temperatures were unusually high in the 1940s.

Andy
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Andy

For some reason, links to Realclimate leave me feeling cold.

Maybe it’s that open-minded Gavin guy, and his charming friends?

qfrealist
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qfrealist

The whole argument about the atmospheric temperatures is most likely wrong anyway. The whole climate oscillations seem to me to be very closely associated with the PDO and NOTHING to do with the atmosphere. The deep ocean circulating currents are poorly understood let alone thee deep ocean temperatures. As a physics student water is the greatest heat sink (natural ) on the planet. Two sources of heat driving the atmosphere are SUN and ocean heat capacity, and yet very much less studied undersea volcanism and heat flow I think it is possible the cart is before the horse.

Andy
Guest
Andy

Follow the money:

This is an excellent article.

“The EU Connection in Climate Research
by John Rosenthal
Millions of euros come with an agenda”

http://www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/43291

Bulaman
Guest
Bulaman

Where’s slick Nick??
Why here he is..

The future of climate policy will be up for discussion at the 6th Australia-New Zealand Climate Change & Business Conference with The Hon Penny Wong (Labor), Senator Christine Milne (Greens) and Senator Simon Birmingham (Liberals) all confirmed to address the event.

New Zealand will tell its story with the Hon Dr Nick Smith also presenting.

International policy will also be in the spotlight, with presentations by Christiana Figueres, the new head of the UNFCCC and Dr Ralph Sims, formerly with the IEA, reviewing the success of complementary measures overseas.

The conference theme is “Business Taking Action” and the core discussion will be around what business is doing now to address climate change and what policy settings it needs.

Whether your focus is investment in clean technology, carbon, managing your company’s sustainability program or analysing the physical risk of climate change, join us for this important discussion on the best way forward and take the opportunity to learn from one another.

Full details and registration are available at: climateandbusiness.com

Andy
Guest
Andy

..but look, they are going to offset all the emissions from the conference for us.

And they have kindly provided a link to our own CarboNZero site

http://www.carbonzero.co.nz/EmissionsCalc/tourismeditor.aspx

where you can be a good citizen and pay $33.75 for undertaking “nature activities, hiking and riding”

Do they ever wonder why we don’t take them seriously?

Richard C
Guest
Richard C

Agree

There is a full-scale real-time experiment being conducted currently that will test this hypothesis.

Some preliminary observations:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/03/global-sea-surface-temperature-cooling-continues/

Pertinent comments from Pielke Snr:

http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2010/08/06/comments-on-a-new-paper-on-climate-sensitivity-by-lin-et-al-2010/
(“It is time to scrap the use of the global annual averaged surface temperature as the metric to diagnose global warming and cooling.

Until the climate community moves away from the surface temperature trends, with its inaccuracy and unnecessary complexity, and replaces it with the diagnosis of ocean heat content changes in Joules over time, the policy community will continue to be misled as to the actual warming and cooling of the climate system.”)

Outcome speculation:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/07/20/shifting-of-the-pacific-decadal-oscillation-from-its-warm-mode-to-cool-mode-assures-global-cooling-for-the-next-three-decades/

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/189 (A Massive Winter Heading for the Northern Hemisphere?)

Some anecdotal evidence not to be found in your local fishwrap or other msm:

http://www.boliviabella.com/1-million-fish-dead-in-bolivian-ecological-disaster.html
(story and must view Youtube vid showing what happens when tropical river temps fall below survival level of 12 degrees C to 7-9 degrees C)

http://www.aolnews.com/world/article/chilly-in-chile-south-america-hit-by-freak-cold-snap/19583528
(story highlighting the economic impact of severe cold weather e.g. energy use skyrocketing and fruit crops ruined but is it “freak” or a new norm? also a reminder of consequences of being unprepared for same as in warmist Britain last NH winter)

A rare exception from NZ Herald:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10662912 (Hundreds die in Peru’s big freeze)

Richard C
Guest
Richard C

“How can atmospheric concentrations of CO2, rising at a constant rate, cause cooling, then warming, then cooling, then warming?” then……..? Given that the IPCC is already out of the money in their projections of continued (and alarming) warming after the warming of the 90’s in their own correlation/causation leap of faith then what is a sensible projection of the above sequence? Bryan Leyland asserts that “The chances are that the present warm spell will end quite suddenly before the end of this year” on the strength of the McLean, de Freitas and Carter (2009) paper “Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature”. His prediction is documented here: http://joannenova.com.au/2010/08/is-the-cold-weather-coming/#more-9776 Obviously time will tell and in Bryan’s favour 2010 still has time to run even if his graph depiction has been premature. Don Easterbrook makes a longer term projection where the cycle repeats and contrasts that with the IPCC projections here: http://myweb.wwu.edu/dbunny/research/global/coming-century-predictions.pdf http://myweb.wwu.edu/dbunny/research/global/glocool_summary.pdf Found on his website:http://myweb.wwu.edu/dbunny/index.htm Don analyzes the disconnection between CO2 levels and the warming/cooling cycle over the past century here: http://myweb.wwu.edu/dbunny/research/global/CO2_past-century.pdf At present the departure of temperature trend from CO2 trend over the last decade (i.e. broken correlation) is not apparent… Read more »

Richard C
Guest
Richard C

Agreed

There is a full-scale real-time experiment being conducted at present that will test your hypothesis.

Some outcome predictions:
http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/189 (A Massive Winter Heading for the Northern Hemisphere?)
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/07/20/shifting-of-the-pacific-decadal-oscillation-from-its-warm-mode-to-cool-mode-assures-global-cooling-for-the-next-three-decades/

Also see reply to Richard Treadgold August 8, 2010 at 9:35 pm

Pertinent comments from Pielke Snr:
http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2010/08/06/comments-on-a-new-paper-on-climate-sensitivity-by-lin-et-al-2010/

“It is time to scrap the use of the global annual averaged surface temperature as the metric to diagnose global warming and cooling.”

“Until the climate community moves away from the surface temperature trends, with its inaccuracy and unnecessary complexity, and replaces it with the diagnosis of ocean heat content changes in Joules over time, the policy community will continue to be misled as to the actual warming and cooling of the climate system.”

qfrealist
Guest
qfrealist

Yes, its called taxing the ignorant!

Richard C
Guest
Richard C

The graph in question is accompanied by the following text in the NZ Govt climate change information brochure linked in the post above: “What is the problem? The burning of fossil fuels and clearing of forests is changing the chemical composition of the atmosphere. CO2 levels are 35 per cent higher than they were before industrialisation. If the current rate of increase continues, we could see a doubling by 2050. Other gases like methane and nitrous oxide from agriculture are also increasing in concentration. Scientists’ concern is that these greenhouse gases will raise global temperatures, increase sea levels and lead to more extreme weather events. The risk to future generations justifies action now to curb our growth in emissions.” Firstly, CO2 is not a pollutant in terms of toxicity (or an endangerment to humans as the US EPA states) so a doubling of CO2 is not a problem in terms of pollution unlike say SO2. Similarly there is no threat from the insignificant levels of methane and nitrous oxide i.e. no problem. Secondly, the significance of CO2 as a contributor to the greenhouse effect and the mechanism by which CO2 might be able… Read more »

Richard C
Guest
Richard C

“Back Radiation” aka Downwelling Longwave Radiation or Downward LWIR – real or fictional?

http://claesjohnson.blogspot.com/2010/08/measuring-downwelling-longwave.html

Richard C
Guest
Richard C

Questions for the NZ Climate Change Office. They say, “Scientists’ concern is that these greenhouse gases will raise global temperatures…” Therefore, to “raise global temperatures”, the greenhouse gases must produce extra heat. Question 1. How does atmospheric back radiation from the greenhouse gases (Downwelling long-wave infra-red or DLR) produce extra heat in the oceans that cover 70% of the globes surface plus the lakes and rivers? Given that it is solar short-wave radiation that heats the ocean down to approx. 100m and that DLR is only able to impinge on the top 100 MICROm of the oceans surface, the only heat produced is latent hear of evaporation released on condensation approx. 1km up in the atmosphere – so no extra heat in the oceans. Question 2. Where is the evidence that atmospheric DLR from the greenhouse gases is producing extra heat (in Joules) in the top layers of the land-mass that covers 30% of the globes surface and how significant is that evidence compared to geothermal and volcanic heating? Question 3. Where is the scientific evidence that atmospheric DLR from the greenhouse gases is increasing in magnitude sufficient to cause the temperature rise… Read more »

Richard C
Guest
Richard C

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