Let’s take the wind from their sales

 

 

Gigantic wind turbine: engineering nothing short of majestic, but profit-making? Not on your Nelly, they require compliant politicians to authorise fat taxpayer subsidies. They wreck your power grid — as they just did in South Australia — and despoil remote wilderness. It’s time to demolish them.  (click to enlarge)

Even after 30 years of huge subsidies, wind power provides about zero energy

from Matt Ridley’s blog on the futile numbers behind wind power

No comments from me, just a series of extracts from Matt’s latest blog, wherein his unerring discernment dismantles the case for wind turbines as a cure for the climate endangerment craze. I strongly recommend you read his original piece. You won’t hear this from the world-saving Greens, for these are the facts behind their fantasy. One key fact: Wind turbines (icons for ‘clean’ renewables) are necessarily produced by filthy fossil fuels, largely coal. You read it here first.  – RT

The Global Wind Energy Council recently released its latest report, excitedly boasting that ‘the proliferation of wind energy into the global power market continues at a furious pace, after it was revealed that more than 54 gigawatts of clean renewable wind power was installed across the global market last year.’

… [Wind power’s] contribution [to world energy] is still, after decades — nay centuries — of development, trivial to the point of irrelevance.

Even put together, wind and photovoltaic solar are supplying less than 1 per cent of global energy demand. From the International Energy Agency’s 2016 Key Renewables Trends, we can see that wind provided 0.46 per cent of global energy consumption in 2014, and solar and tide combined provided 0.35 per cent. Remember this is total energy, not just electricity, which is less than a fifth of all final energy, the rest being the solid, gaseous, and liquid fuels that do the heavy lifting for heat, transport and industry.

… Their [solar and wind] trick is to hide behind the statement that close to 14 per cent of the world’s energy is renewable, with the implication that this is wind and solar. In fact the vast majority — three quarters — is biomass (mainly wood), and a very large part of that is ‘traditional biomass’; sticks and logs and dung burned by the poor in their homes to cook with. Those people need that energy, but they pay a big price in health problems caused by smoke inhalation.

If wind turbines were to supply [just the growth in world energy demand of 2 per cent per year] but no more, how many would need to be built each year? The answer is nearly 350,000, since a two-megawatt turbine can produce about 0.005 terawatt-hours per annum. That’s one-and-a-half times as many as have been built in the world since governments started pouring consumer funds into this so-called industry in the early 2000s.

At a density of, very roughly, 50 acres per megawatt, typical for wind farms, that many turbines would require a land area [half the size of] the British Isles, including Ireland. Every year. If we kept this up for 50 years, we would have covered every square mile of a land area [half] the size of Russia with wind farms. Remember, this would be just to fulfil the new demand for energy, not to displace the vast existing supply of energy from fossil fuels, which currently supply 80 per cent of global energy needs. [para corrected from original.]

… There is a limit to how much energy you can extract from a moving fluid, the Betz limit, and wind turbines are already close to it. Their effectiveness (the load factor, to use the engineering term) is determined by the wind that is available, and that varies at its own sweet will from second to second, day to day, year to year.

… Mankind stopped using [wind power] for mission-critical transport and mechanical power long ago, for sound reasons. It’s just not very good.

As for resource consumption and environmental impacts, the direct effects of wind turbines — killing birds and bats, sinking concrete foundations deep into wild lands — is bad enough. But out of sight and out of mind is the dirty pollution generated in Inner Mongolia by the mining of rare-earth metals for the magnets in the turbines. This generates toxic and radioactive waste on an epic scale, which is why the phrase ‘clean energy’ is such a sick joke and ministers should be ashamed every time it passes their lips.

It gets worse. Wind turbines, apart from the fibreglass blades, are made mostly of steel, with concrete bases. They need about 200 times as much material per unit of capacity as a modern combined cycle gas turbine. Steel is made with coal, not just to provide the heat for smelting ore, but to supply the carbon in the alloy. Cement is also often made using coal. The machinery of ‘clean’ renewables is the output of the fossil fuel economy, and largely the coal economy.

A two-megawatt wind turbine weighs about 250 tonnes, including the tower, nacelle, rotor and blades. Globally, it takes about half a tonne of coal to make a tonne of steel. Add another 25 tonnes of coal for making the cement and you’re talking 150 tonnes of coal per turbine. Now if we are to build 350,000 wind turbines a year (or a smaller number of bigger ones), just to keep up with increasing energy demand, that will require 50 million tonnes of coal a year. That’s about half the EU’s hard coal–mining output.

… it is utterly futile, on a priori grounds, to think that wind power can make any significant contribution even to world energy supply, let alone to emissions reductions, without ruining the planet. …

the idea that renewable energy could power the UK is an “appalling delusion” — for this reason, that there is not enough land.

The truth is, if you want to power civilisation with fewer greenhouse gas emissions, then you should focus on shifting power generation, heat and transport to natural gas, the economically recoverable reserves of which — thanks to horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing — are much more abundant than we dreamed they ever could be. …

And let’s put some of that burgeoning wealth into nuclear, fission and fusion, so that it can take over from gas in the second half of this century. That is an engineerable, clean future. Everything else is a political displacement activity, one that is actually counterproductive as a climate policy and, worst of all, shamefully robs the poor to make the rich even richer.

 

41 Thoughts on “Let’s take the wind from their sales

  1. Mike Jowsey on May 16, 2017 at 7:08 pm said:

    Many moving parts. Friction. Maintenance. And results are zero, except for the negatives; frustration, contempt and laughter. Or is laughter a positive? Perhaps that’s the benefit of wind “power”.

  2. Richard Treadgold on May 17, 2017 at 9:03 am said:

    Laughter has to be a positive, doesn’t it? Especially when directed at politicians and officials who allow these monstrosities without a proper examination of their cost and effectiveness.

  3. Bulaman on May 20, 2017 at 7:26 am said:

    Speaking to an energy company insider (one that doesn’t do wind). They hate these things because the spot rate crashes when they are generating. They cannot “store” so when the wind blows they have to sell. Buyers know this so the price is always lowest when they are turning, losing even more money!

  4. HemiMck on May 22, 2017 at 11:59 am said:

    Hi Bulaman,

    That pricing scenario seems intuitively obvious. Are there any stats to back it up?

    We see various of cost of production estimates of electricity from different sources but I don’t think I have seen average spot prices from the various production methods. The assumption usually taken is that all sources produce electricity worth the same dollars. Clearly that is not true.

  5. Ian Cooper on May 24, 2017 at 9:18 am said:

    Off topic, but I can’t help commenting on the irony of two things I have seen on TV 1 over the weekend. The first was a news item about the plight of the Yellow Eyed Penguins at Oamaru. A leading scientist, who’s name I can’t recall sorry, studying the decline of these iconic birds claimed that there are three major contributing factors in this decline. Habitat change due to human activity which includes introduced predators, fishing practices and you guessed it, “Climate Change!” Thanks to the fact that we have been recording in detail the temperatures in the area involved, and that includes the sea south of Oamaru, scientists can assert with confidence that one third of the decline is down to climate change. They have no quanta for the other two factors but they are certain about how much impact climate change is having!

    On Sunday night (May 21st) Country Calendar did a story on a couple farming at Port Levy on the northern side of Banks Peninsula. It turns out that there is another lesser known breed of Penguin there that is endangered. Thanks to a concerted effort by that couple and other locals at eradicating introduced predators, those penguins are making a slow recovery. No mention of climate change as a factor in the demise of those penguins. Very hard to argue a case for climate change when the most significant change has been the near elimination of the very real & constant threat posed by human introduced predators.

    My question for the scientists at Oamaru is, “Have you cited climate change as a factor just because it is the only element that you have a measure of (their words BTW). Or is it because without mentioning it you won’t get any or as much funding to do the real science required to answer the question on the demise of the Hoiho?” Pardon me for being sceptical, but when scientists put up such weak arguments that beggar belief you just have to be doubtful.

  6. Dennis N Horne on May 25, 2017 at 6:45 pm said:

    Total nonsense from the obfuscator Lord Ridley of Coal, member of GWPF with Lord Monckton of Loony and Lord Lawson of Blaby.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_the_United_Kingdom
    The United Kingdom is one of the best locations for wind power in the world, and is considered to be the best in Europe.[1][2] Wind power contributed 11% of UK electricity generation in 2015, and 17% in December 2015.[3] Allowing for the costs of pollution, particularly the carbon emissions of other forms of production, onshore wind power is the cheapest form of energy in the United Kingdom.[4] In 2016, the UK generated more electricity from wind power than from coal.[5]

    Wind power delivers a growing percentage of the energy of the United Kingdom and at the end of May 2017, it consisted of 7,520 wind turbines with a total installed capacity of almost 15.5 gigawatts: 10,128 megawatts of onshore capacity and 5,356 megawatts of offshore capacity.[6] This placed the United Kingdom at this time as the world’s sixth largest producer of wind power (behind 1. China, 2. USA, 3. Germany, 4. India and 5. Spain), having overtaken France and Italy in 2012.[7] Polling of public opinion consistently shows strong support for wind power in the UK, with nearly three quarters of the population agreeing with its use, even for people living near onshore wind turbines.[8][9][10][11][12][13]

    Despite Numpty Trumpy:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_Texas
    Wind power in Texas consists of many wind farms with a total installed nameplate capacity of 20,321 MW[1][2] from over 40 different projects. Texas produces the most wind power of any U.S. state.[3] Wind power accounted for 12.63% of the electricity generated in Texas in the 12 months ending Oct 2016.[1]
    The wind resource in many parts of Texas is very large. Farmers may lease their land to wind developers, creating a new revenue stream for the farm. The wind power industry has also created over 24,000 jobs for local communities and for the state. Texas is seen as a profit-driven leader of renewable energy commercialization in the United States.

    A message from the American Association for the Advancement of Science:
    http://whatweknow.aaas.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/whatweknow_website.pdf
    2. We are at risk of pushing our climate system toward abrupt, unpredictable, and potentially irreversible changes with highly damaging impacts. Earth’s climate is on a path to warm beyond the range of what has been experienced over the past millions of years. The range of uncertainty for the warming along the current emissions path is wide enough to encompass massively disruptive consequences to societies and ecosystems. As global temperatures rise, there is a real risk, however small, that one or more critical parts of the Earth’s climate system will experience abrupt, unpredictable, and potentially irreversible changes. Disturbingly, scientists do not know how much warming is required to trigger such changes to the climate system.

  7. Richard Treadgold on May 25, 2017 at 7:16 pm said:

    Dennis,

    Really, this message from the AAAS cannot be taken seriously. They mention no science but admit they know nothing: “at risk, unpredictable, potentially irreversible, on a path, range of uncertainty wide enough to encompass massively disruptive consequences (that’s the funniest one, since that always happens when the uncertainty is great), a real risk however small, and back to unpredictable and potentially irreversible.” After all this, we’re supposed to be surprised and disturbed that scientists don’t know how much warming will do certain things, all unspecified? This is a joke.

    And please, to save us the trouble of guessing, specify the particular assertions you consider to be “total nonsense” from the good lords Ridley, Monckton and Lawson. If it’s not too much to ask.

    I take no issue with your research on wind turbines, except to observe they will never run our steel mills, tall office buildings aeroplanes or ships. They are however quite well suited to occasionally running a radio on a remote island.

  8. Andy on May 25, 2017 at 9:16 pm said:

    Wind power is a scam and people who promote it are either crooks or delusional fools

  9. Magoo on May 26, 2017 at 9:54 am said:

    This looks like this will take the wind from the wind industry’s sales. China’s flammable ice containing methane means abundant cheap energy from fossil fuels:

    http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/05/25/delingpole-hello-flammable-ice-bye-bye-renewables-enter-the-greenies-worst-nightmare/

    Also, another article of interest. Ben Santer tries a pathetic hit job on Scott Pruitt in an especially weak paper. As Dr. Roy Spencer says:

    ‘Of course, the authors know full well that the reason the pause/hiatus/leveling-off ended was due to a NATURAL event (El Nino). You can’t build a case for human-caused warming by relying on natural warming! (But, they did anyway.)’

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/05/santer-takes-on-pruitt-the-global-warming-pause-and-the-devolution-of-climate-science/

  10. HemiMck on May 26, 2017 at 2:25 pm said:

    So for comparison sake, New Zealand total installed electricity capacity is 10,000 MW and lets say a capacity factor of 60% vs UK installed wind capacity of 15,000 MW with a capacity factor of say 25%.

    So UK wind generation output is less than New Zealand total electricity output.

    Population 4.5m vs 65m.

  11. HemiMck on May 26, 2017 at 2:56 pm said:

    Another way to look at it is one large coal, natural gas or nuclear plant of 5,000 MW would produce as much electricity as the total 7,500 monstrosities combined.

    Correction to above – 35% capacity factor judging from Renewable UK.

  12. Dennis N Horne on May 26, 2017 at 4:05 pm said:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lm-tKEpJs7I
    What has Lord Baron Christopher von Monckhausen said now?

    https://bbickmore.wordpress.com/lord-moncktons-rap-sheet/
    Climate Asylum. A Republican Scientist Advocates Sane Energy Policies
    1. Monckton claimed that he has developed a cure for Graves’ Disease, AIDS, Multiple Schlerosis, the flu, and the common cold. This is no joke–he actually filed applications to patent a “therapeutic treatment” in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013. Bluegrue speculates that Monckton is likely filing his applications and then letting them lapse after a year without paying the fees necessary to have the Patents Office take the process forward. That way, he can claim he has filed for a patent, but never has to have the Patent Office determine whether his “therapeutic treatment” is patentable (or pay any fees). Is it homeopathy? Massive doses of vitamin C? The world waits with bated breath.

    2. The list of diseases cured by Monckton’s miracle tonic expands from time to time. At one point he claimed, “Patients have been cured of various infectious diseases, including Graves’ Disease, multiple sclerosis, influenza, and herpes simplex VI.” At another time he said, “Patients have been cured of various infectious diseases, including Graves’ disease, multiple sclerosis, influenza, food poisoning, and HIV.”

    http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Christopher_Monckton
    Monckton also wrote a controversial article for the American Physical Society’s newsletter refuting the IPCC’s conclusion that climate change is a largely human produced phenomenon. The APS, however, headlined the article with the disclaimer that “its conclusions are in disagreement with the overwhelming opinion of the world scientific community. The Council of the American Physical Society disagrees with this article’s conclusions.”[13] and “”The following article has not undergone any scientific peer review, since that is not normal procedure for American Physical Society newsletters” [14]. Despite this, Christopher Monckton continues to claim that the opinion piece has been peer-reviewed and there is a conspiracy to cover this up [15].

  13. Dennis N Horne on May 26, 2017 at 4:21 pm said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/may/11/more-errors-identified-in-contrarian-climate-scientists-temperature-estimates
    More errors identified in contrarian climate scientists’ temperature estimates [John Abraham]
    A new study suggests there are remaining biases in the oft-corrected University of Alabama at Huntsville atmospheric temperature estimates

    Human emission of heat-trapping gases is causing the Earth to warm. We’ve known that for many decades. In fact, there are no reputable scientists that dispute this fact. There are, however, a few scientists who don’t think the warming will be very much or that we should worry about it. These contrarians have been shown to be wrong over and over again, like in the movie Groundhog Day. And, a new study just out shows they may have another error. But, despite being wrong, they continue to claim Earth’s warming isn’t something to be concerned about.

    Perhaps the darlings of the denialist community are two researchers out of Alabama (John Christy and Roy Spencer). They rose to public attention in the mid-1990s when they reportedly showed that the atmosphere was not warming and was actually cooling. It turns out they had made some pretty significant errors and when other researchers identified those errors, the new results showed a warming.

    To provide perspective, we know the Earth is warming because we can measure it. Most of the heat (93%) goes into the oceans and we have sensors measuring ocean temperatures that show this. We also know about warming because we have thermometers and other sensors all over the planet measuring the temperature at the surface or in the first few meters of air at the surface. Those temperatures are rising too. We are also seeing ice melting and sea level rising around the planet.

    So, the evidence is clear. What Christy and Spencer focus on is the temperatures measured far above the Earth’s surface in the troposphere and the stratosphere. Generally, over the past few decades these two scientists have claimed the troposphere temperatures are not rising very rapidly. This argument has been picked up to deny the reality of human caused climate change – but it has been found to be wrong.

    What kinds of errors have been made? Well first, let’s understand how these two researchers measure atmospheric temperatures. They are not using thermometers, rather they are using microwave signals from the atmosphere to deduce temperatures. The microwave sensors are on satellites which rapidly circle the planet.

    Some of the problems they have struggled with relate to satellite altitudes (they slowly fall over their lifetimes, and this orbital decay biases the readings); satellite drift (their orbits shift east-west a small amount causing an error); they errantly include stratosphere temperatures in their lower atmosphere readings; and they have incorrect temperature calibration on the satellites. It’s pretty deep stuff, but I have written about the errors multiple times here, and here for people who want a deeper dive into the details.

    It’s important to recognize that there are four other groups that make similar measurement estimates, so it’s possible to compare the temperatures of one group against another. The new paper, completed by Eric Swanson and published by the American Meteorological Society compares the results from three different groups. He focused on measurements made over the Arctic region. His comparison found two main differences amongst the three groups that suggests the errors.

    To better appreciate the issues, the satellites have instruments called Microwave Sounding Units (MSUs) or more recently, Advanced Microwave Soundings Units (AMSUs). These instruments allow reconstruction of the lower troposphere (TLT), the mid-troposphere temperature (TMT), and the lower stratosphere temperature (TLS). But the measurements are not at a specific location (like a thermometer) – they are smeared out over large spaces. As a consequence, it’s possible to have one layer of the atmosphere contaminate the results of another layer. You wouldn’t for instance, want your measurement of the troposphere (lower atmosphere) to include part of the stratosphere (above the troposphere).

    Among the key differences among the research teams are their methods to ensure this contamination is minimized. According to the recent paper, which was published in January 2017:

    At present, the UAH v6 (most recent Christy/Spencer data) results are preliminary and a fifth revision has now been released as v6beta5 (Spencer 2016). The release of the UAH version 6 products before publication is unusual, and Spencer recently stated that a manuscript has been submitted for a peer-reviewed publication. While some may find it scientifically inappropriate to utilize UAH v6b6 data before publication, these data have already been presented in testimony during congressional hearings before both the U.S. House and Senate and have also appeared on websites and in public print articles.

    The author compared the Christy/Spencer data (UAH data) with another group (the RSS group) and found that the results diverged during the 1986-1988 time period. This shift “could arise from a step change or bias in either series.” When the author compared UAH with the third group (NOAA), the difference was still evident. However, when he compared RSS to NOAA, there was hardly a difference.

    The author also noted that the timing of this divergence coincided with the merging of a new satellite NOAA-9, and this satellite has previously been identified as a source of error in the UAH results. But the author continued the analysis to more recent times and found another anomaly in 2005 which has since been corrected in NOAA.

    Look, measuring temperatures from satellites flying high above Earth is hard. No one doubts that. But let’s not be deluded into thinking these satellites are more accurate than thermometers (as some people suggest). Let’s also not blindly accept low-ball warming information from research teams that have long histories of revising their data. I created the image below a few years ago to show the upward revisions made by the Christy/Spencer team over time in their global troposphere temperatures.

    University of Alabama at Huntsville estimates of the atmospheric temperature trend before and after correcting for various errors. Illustration: John Abraham

    It is relevant to be reminded of these revisions; had we believed the results from the 1990s, we’d still think the world was cooling, and we’d still be wrong.

  14. Magoo on May 27, 2017 at 11:19 am said:

    Dennis dear boy,

    Don’t you know that the UAH issues mentioned in your pathetic guardian articles were all fixed decades ago – orbital decay, 1986-1988. You and your author really are more than a bit thick and informationally retarded dear boy.

    The new UAH V6 is not a beta anymore and has between published in a peer reviewed article:

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/03/uah-version-6-dataset-paper-published-online/

    As for UAH not matching RSS, let’s just have a look shall we:

    http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss-land/plot/uah6-land

    OOOPS!! Looks like a near perfect correlation to me. Your guardian author is either a complete ignoramus or a dishonest greenie activist – i.e. a stock standard alarmist. Weak minds are so easily led by whatever rubbish they read in the papers.

    The land based datasets, however, are still ‘adjusting’ their ‘adjustments’ of their ‘adjustments’, etc. for the temperatures over the entire 20th century every time they update, which shows how useless they are. As for NOAA, let’s just have a quick look at their inadequate ‘global’ coverage of thermometers shall we:

    https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/file/integrated-surface-database-station-distribution-mapgif

    Both poles, the oceans, Greenland, Nth Africa, Canada, Nth Russia all have bad to pathetic coverage, i.e. the majority of the Earth, something that is simply not a problem for satellite datasets with their global coverage.

    The desperation on show from your alarmist crowd really is hilarious dear boy.

  15. Dennis N Horne on May 27, 2017 at 7:23 pm said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/may/11/more-errors-identified-in-contrarian-climate-scientists-temperature-estimates
    Comments: 596
    John Abraham. Thursday 11 May 2017 11.00 BST

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Abraham_(professor)

    John P. Abraham is an American engineering professor, known for his interest in climate science.
    Abraham is professor of thermal and fluid sciences at the University of St. Thomas School of Engineering, Minnesota.[1][2] His area of research includes thermodynamics, heat transfer, fluid flow, numerical simulation, and energy. After gaining his doctorate at the University of Minnesota in 2002, he joined St. Thomas as an adjunct instructor, later becoming a full-time member of the faculty. He has published over 200 papers in journals and conferences, and since 1997 has also been an engineering consultant working on industrial research in aerospace, biomedical, energy and manufacturing industries. He works on clean and renewable wind and solar projects in the developing world, and has also produced numerous books, such as a 2014 text on small-scale wind power[3] and a 2010 groundbreaking text on laminar-to-turbulent fluid flow.[4][5][6]
    Abraham felt it was necessary to respond to a talk given to the Minnesota Free Market Institute in October 2009 by a well-known skeptic of human-caused global warming, Christopher Monckton. He thought “this guy is a great speaker and he is very convincing. If I didn’t know the science, I would believe him. Frankly, the nonscientists in the audience didn’t have a chance. They had no way of knowing what he said was not true. I felt Monckton took advantage of them and he knew he was taking advantage of them.” In the following months he carried out research, contacting scientists cited by Monckton, and in late May 2010 he posted online an 83-minute video rebutting Monckton’s statements. This attracted little attention at first, until it was highlighted by an article George Monbiot published in The Guardian.[5][7][8]
    Abraham’s presentation and the response from Monckton[9] subsequently received world-wide attention.[10][11][12][13][14][15] More recently, Abraham and a number of colleagues including Michael E. Mann submitted a document to the US Congress which claimed to refute nine errors in Christopher Monckton’s May 6, 2010, testimony.[16][17][18][19]
    In November 2010, Abraham (and two colleagues, Professor Scott Mandia and Dr. Ray Weymann) launched the Climate Science Rapid Response Team, to provide rapid, high-quality scientific information to the media and government decision makers. The intention of this group is to enable scientists to share their work directly with the general public. This effort has been covered by many media outlets.[20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31] The effort has an online page for media to submit their questions.[32]
    Abraham estimated early in 2012 that since beginning his rebuttal he had put around 1,000 unpaid hours into work on climate change and the controversy. He has given numerous speeches to publicize global warming issues, but does not accept funding for climate research or ask for an honorarium for speeches: if payment is given he asks that it goes to St. Thomas or to charity.[5]

  16. Dennis N Horne on May 27, 2017 at 7:49 pm said:

    Indeed, Magoof. Over the years Christy and Spencer have mostly corrected their ongoing schoolboy-howlers — under the supervision and watchful eye of climate scientists (and others), 99% of whom accept the consensus of publishing climate scientists: human activity is warming Earth and destabilising the climate.

    https://www.skepticalscience.com/skeptic_John_Christy.htm
    Climate Misinformer: John Christy

    https://www.skepticalscience.com/skeptic_Roy_Spencer.htm
    Climate Misinformer: Roy Spencer

    Oops, how could one forget the third of the miserable trio of climate science misfits:
    https://www.skepticalscience.com/Judith_Curry_blog.htm
    Climate Misinformer: Judith Curry

  17. Dennis N Horne on May 27, 2017 at 8:01 pm said:

    Magoof, you suffer confirmation bias, motivated reasoning and Dunning-Kruger. I don’t want to hurt your feelings, but you are delusional. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

    https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2016/03/experts-opt-for-surface-rather-than-satellite-temp-data/
    Preeminent satellite expert Carl Mears, of Remote Sensing Systems, sides with surface thermometers as consistently providing a generally more reliable record. “I would have to say that the surface data seems like its more accurate,” Mears said.

    According to Zeke Hausfather, a regular Yale Climate Connections expert author and a doctoral candidate working with Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, “We’ve tried using just the raw data . . . globally, you get pretty much the same warming. The necessary and routine ‘adjustments’ to surface temperature data sometimes attract disproportionate general circulation media attention,” Hausfather says, but those have had very little significant impact over the last 30 years or so. “The satellite records historically have been subjected to much, much, larger adjustments over time,” according to Hausfather.

  18. Maggy Wassilieff on May 28, 2017 at 8:53 am said:

    If anyone wants a laugh…. check out this reply to Dennis Horne (Wiiliam of Ockham) who has posted on the Dunning-Kruger effect on Kiwiblog this morning.
    http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2017/05/general_debate_28_may_2017.html/comment-page-1#comment-1938423

  19. Magoo on May 28, 2017 at 1:53 pm said:

    Haha! That’s very funny Maggy. Dany’s reply to Dennis is very funny also. 😉

    http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2017/05/general_debate_28_may_2017.html/comment-page-1#comment-1938424

    Almost as funny as Dennis’ use of the Guardian, skepticalscience.conjob, and Zeke ‘El Nino’ Hausyafather to justify his rants and froths of willful ignorance.

    DENNIS dear boy, the UAH satellite record is verified as the most accurate when compared to the independent radiosonde record – the land based record shown is the least accurate:

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/GL_MT_r2_vs_roab_and_reanalysis.png

    Sorry Dennis dear boy, but them’s the empirical facts.

  20. Mike jowsey on May 30, 2017 at 6:52 pm said:

    “And please, to save us the trouble of guessing, specify the particular assertions you consider to be “total nonsense” from the good lords Ridley, Monckton and Lawson. If it’s not too much to ask.” Brilliant! Hahahaha.

  21. Dennis N Horne on May 31, 2017 at 6:10 am said:

    http://www.awea.org/MediaCenter/pressrelease.aspx?ItemNumber=9999
    US wind generation reached 5.5% of the grid in 2016
    5 Heartland states now more than 20% wind-powered
    March 6, 2017
    WASHINGTON, D.C. — Iowa, South Dakota, Kansas, Oklahoma and North Dakota all sourced more than 20 percent of their electricity generation from wind power during 2016, according to new data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). It shows wind supplied over 5.5 percent of electricity nationwide, up from 4.7 percent in 2015.
    With 99 percent of wind turbines located in rural areas, wind power’s steady growth as a share of the nation’s electricity supply has been accompanied by a surge of investment in rural America. The industry invested over $13.8 billion in new turbines last year, according to the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA), in addition to operating a fleet now over 52,000 turbines.
    “Wind is now cheaply and reliably supplying more than 20 percent of the electricity in five states and is a testament to American leadership and innovation,” said Tom Kiernan, AWEA CEO. “For these states, and across America, wind is welcome because it means jobs, investment, and a better tomorrow for rural communities.” [continues]

  22. Dennis N Horne on May 31, 2017 at 6:27 am said:

    Magoon you goof … people live on the surface. (Yes I know you have your head in the clouds… ) Satellites don’t measure surface temperatures. In fact it is very difficult to construct any sort of useful temperature series from their data. They measure temperatures throughout the atmosphere, all over the place. Religious freaks Christy and Spencer have been cooking the cake for years.

    I thought I already told you Carl Mears of Remote Sensing Systems has explained surface thermometers give a truer indication of temperature.

    But hey, a Con’s not interested in the truth.

  23. Dennis N Horne on May 31, 2017 at 8:05 am said:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-AS6rQtiEh8
    Richard Dawkins Interviews Creationist Wendy Wright (Complete)

    Exactly the same arguments in science denial of atmospheric physics and Earth science as evolution.

    Thinking you know better than the experts … insanity.

  24. Dennis N Horne on May 31, 2017 at 8:11 am said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/may/30/endorsing-the-paris-agreement-is-trumps-best-opportunity-for-a-big-win

    The common misunderstanding about the Paris accord is its impact on business and investment. Opponents fret about costs and economic change, but achieving the Paris Agreement’s goals will unlock capital investment at a rate no other policy initiative can match.

    Here’s why:

    Right now, an unprecedented amount of actual wealth is “sitting on the sidelines,” awaiting the next wave economy—the transformational moment of world-building investment potential.

    More than $8 trillion tied up in negative yield bonds, along with another $5 trillion in corporate cash holdings, are waiting for a go sign. All that capital is looking for reliable growth and secure returns.

    Climate-resilient investments, high-efficiency new energy technologies, and services that build value in local communities, hold far more growth potential than any old-style industrial production standards.

    The International Monetary Fund estimates that $5.1 trillion per year in direct and indirect assistance to high-carbon energy is not only a waste of public resources, but qualifies as “destructive spending” that undermines value across whole economies.

    The opportunity to move that money into the building of a new economy of sustainable prosperity open to all is what the Paris Agreement is designed to activate.

  25. Andy on May 31, 2017 at 9:00 am said:

    Wind energy is a scam. Wind energy requires huge amounts of fossil fuel backup. Wind energy kills many birds, including golden eagles. Wind energy causes health problems in humans and animals. Wind energy is a blight on the landscape

    Only scam artists like Dennis support wind energy.

  26. Richard Treadgold on May 31, 2017 at 9:06 am said:

    So there’s money (“actual wealth”) apparently “sitting on the sidelines, waiting for a go sign”? Hard to believe: none of my money is just sitting there, it’s all producing a return of some kind, why should other people be any different? It’s post-modern banknote thinking, that we’re just the empty vaults because it’s cash that makes all our decisions (the “banknote mind”). But this story confirms that Paris has nothing to do with fixing the climate. These people just want to make truckloads of money.

    What do you have to say about our atmospheric emissions being unable to heat the ocean, Dennis? Bear in mind that all this sea level rise we’re waiting for will be caused by the remaining anthropogenic fraction of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

    Here’s my thinking: in 1959 Mauna Loa records a carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere of 316 ppmv. By 2016 that had increased to 404 ppmv, a rise of about 28%. Assuming conservatively that all of that net rise was due to our emissions (which couldn’t possibly be true, since a substantial portion must be the oceans outgassing as they warm), that means our share of today’s atmospheric CO2 is 0.0404 × 0.28 = only 0.011312 of the atmosphere (by volume). It’s impossible to imagine such a small fraction of the atmospheric mass could by radiation alone significantly heat the oceans.

    Predicted catastrophic sea level rise forms a large part of the claimed harm to come from global warming. But if we’re not causing it we can hardly prevent it.

    What do you think?

  27. Magoo on May 31, 2017 at 9:24 am said:

    Dennis dear boy,

    LOL! But the whole point of AGW is that greenhouse gases are supposed to warm THE ATMOSPHERE, remember? That’s where the CO2 & water vapour are supposed to go once emitted & where they’re supposed to warm. Duh!

    Jeez you’re thick Dennis. I’ve met some ignoramuses in my time, but I have to say you really do take the cake dear boy. 😉

  28. Richard Treadgold on May 31, 2017 at 10:47 am said:

    Magoo,

    But the whole point of AGW is that greenhouse gases are supposed to warm THE ATMOSPHERE

    Exactly. These comments hint at the wide range of targets that are missed by the AGW hypothesis. Ignoramuses indeed. One of the most significant is that the temperature still isn’t going up very much, so there’s no sign of the terrible acceleration the warmsters keep shouting about. Come on, where is it?

  29. Andy on May 31, 2017 at 12:10 pm said:

    Apparently the Christchurch City Council think that rapid acceleration of sea levels is about to happen any day soon, because they are forcing coastal residents to build one metre high foundations on any new house builds.

    This is the real cost of AGW madness – pointless and expensive rules that just make life more difficult for everyone

  30. Richard Treadgold on May 31, 2017 at 12:55 pm said:

    Right. Bonkers. Yet here in Te Puke, our house looks over a plain that stretches nearly 7 km north to the shoreline, and 20 km east and west. It’s rich grazing, peaty goodness, and if you can drain it enough I guess you could crop anything (I believe kiwifruit do rather well around here). Anyway, twice in the past couple of months some ten acres or more we overlook, and much more nearby, have flooded during quite ordinary downpours. Yet the housing subdivisions filling Papamoa with nice new houses show no sign of having noticed this clear and present peril. Their furniture and carpets are all being installed within easy reach of these frequent floods. I’ve seen no houses within 40 km raised on even modest stilts. Loss of reason? Looks like it.

  31. Andy on June 1, 2017 at 8:47 am said:

    There is a boardwalk by the estuary in South Brighton, it has been unusable and broken since the 2011 earthquakes

    The council refuse to repair it because they would have to build it one metre higher than before, because of the catastrophic sea level rise that will happen in the next 100 years. As it is over one metre above ground, they would have to put handrails on it, rendering the project too expensive.

    I’m so glad I left

  32. Andy on June 2, 2017 at 9:43 am said:

    The headline on Stuff this morning was “US Stiffs World”

    (in response to pulling out of the Paris agreement)

    I think the headline has been changed now.

  33. Alexander K on June 2, 2017 at 11:03 am said:

    Trump has kept his promise and reversed the USA out of the totally silly Paris deal and I am very pleased that at least one politician in the international arena can spot a fraud and act accordingly.
    I am now waiting for our resident loon to go into full head-banging mode.

  34. Andy on June 2, 2017 at 2:12 pm said:

    Lomborg calculates that if all the countries adhere to the Paris agreement, and the models are right, then the world will be 0.05 deg C cooler by 2100

    At a cost of $100 trillion, I’m told

  35. Alexander K on June 2, 2017 at 2:31 pm said:

    Richard,
    Sorry to disagree with you, but my wife and I moved to Papamoa a couple of years ago and I have a long association with the area, going back to 1955. The new subdivisions in Papamoa are properly engineered and are raised considerably above the original peaty swampland, with very considerable safeguards in the form of properly-designed swales and wetlands to protect all flora and fauna, including the human species.
    During the recent very severe rain events (my rain guage actually overflowed in one 24 hr period despite holding 300 mms of rainwater), the swales and wetlands coped admirably, with very little excess surface water anywhere in the newer parts of the suburb. The buildings are all constructed on concrete “rafts’ which encapsulate a thick and impervious layer of polystyrene to ensure no damp rises up through the concrete. Such is our confidence in the engineering, we will be shifting into our brand new home in the newest development sometime before Christmas.
    Cheers,
    Alexander K

  36. Richard Treadgold on June 2, 2017 at 3:42 pm said:

    Alexander,

    Never mind disagreement, think information. On balance, I’m sure I learn more from moments of disagreement than moments of agreement, so thank you for this information. It’s great to know our local bodies and engineers are switched on, and I’m sorry I did them a disservice by not investigating. Shows once again we shouldn’t sound off from ignorance. Good news on your new house — hope it goes well.

  37. Andy on June 4, 2017 at 5:57 pm said:

    On the sea level topic, since we are discussing that on a wind thread, the MfE guidance on sea levels has been inadvertently leaked and it’s not good news.

    The guidance is for no new building consents within 1.9m of high tide

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11868570

  38. Dennis N Horne on June 5, 2017 at 1:36 pm said:

    http://www.chalquist.com/climatechangedenial.html
    Are warnings about global disaster waking people up–or numbing them out? Craig Chalquist, PhD

    A few years ago, when I spoke about ecotherapy at Bioneers, I was asked during the question-and-answer period, “What is stopping people from waking up to the threat of climate change?”

    Surely it’s not the complexity of the problem. Earth has gone to a lot of trouble to remove enough carbon from the atmosphere to allow life to proliferate. Reverse that cycle and the Greenhouse Effect overheats the planet, a trend evident despite the occasional cool winter. Scientists have warned us about it for a century; the handful who disagree are paid to, usually by petroleum front companies bearing lucrative grants.* According to the International Energy Agency, every year we delay action costs us $500 billion, so the business reasons alone make action urgent. If we go on as we are, we will make this planet uninhabitable, even for business.

    When the Black Plague broke out in Europe, the Lord Mayor of London ignored those who observed that homes and neighborhoods stricken by the plague were overrun with rats. In fact, the holdouts kept insisting nothing was wrong until entire populations began to die. Why did it have to go that far?

    We resort to psychological defenses like rationalization, repression, and denial when overwhelmed with the enormity of disastrous news. The human mind needs a schema or map by which to make sense of such news and other people to talk it over with. Lacking either of those resources, the mind will protect itself by whistling past the graveyard and sticking to business as usual.

    Furthermore, the mind, like the environment, operates with reinforcing feedback loops: circular pathways that under certain circumstances become self-perpetuating. When an activist or scientist shouts the alarm, a mind not prepared for it will protect itself so well–“How does he know all this?” “It can’t be this grim.”–that the hearer will be MORE psychologically numb AFTER hearing the bad news than before hearing it. That’s right: more numb, not less, because of the warning. That fact alone has huge implications for those tasked with waking up the public to imminent danger. [continues]

  39. Dennis N Horne on June 5, 2017 at 1:40 pm said:

    https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/experimentations/201704/why-do-people-refute-climate-change
    Why Do People Refute Climate Change? Grant H. Brenner M.D. Posted Apr 17, 2017
    New research sheds light on how threat to the status quo shapes beliefs.

    The finding that socioeconomic threat is associated with avoidant coping (denial) is telling because it is another disturbing example of how people can sacrifice long-term health and safety in order to prevent short-term losses. Avoidant coping is generally considered to be maladaptive, for example, and acceptance and reappraisal, forms of active coping, are generally more effective.

    Research like this from Clarke et al. is crucial because we need to understand how and why people deny climate change in order to effect positive changes. By understand how various facets of conservative ideology drive climate change denial, we may be able to develop communication and intervention strategies to combat climate change denial, and precipitate greater efforts to embrace comprehensive change across political divides. [continues]

  40. Andy on June 5, 2017 at 2:09 pm said:

    Why Do People Refute Climate Change?

    Why do people ask meaningless questions?

    No one “refutes” climate change

    Why are there so many idiots in the world, is a more pertinent question

  41. Alexander K on June 5, 2017 at 4:48 pm said:

    Climate change is a recognised and verifiable fact but is it caused by Homo Sapiens? We may be having a very tiny effect on climate but if one accepts the premise that giving up producing CO2 will reduce warming by a very tiny amount over many years, this would suggest that the benefits of better crop yields and the current greening of Africa during rising CO2 levels is a far better option.

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