Denial at the death of El Nino

The three major conditions of ENSO explained by NOAA.

An informative model of surface temperatures, winds, areas of rising air, and the thermocline (blue surface) in the tropical Pacific during El Niño, normal, and La Niña conditions. The three major states of ENSO are nothing to do with climate, but are tacked on to whatever is the weather. – RT
      Source: NOAA/PMEL/TAO Project Office, Dr. Michael J. McPhaden, Director.

The denial is consistent with all that warmist shrieking at the El Nino’s peak. The GWPF Observatory reports: Despite Denial, Global Temperatures Are Dropping Fast. All global temperature data sets (you can see a few of the graphs at that GWPF Observatory link) confirm that global temperature has fallen rapidly in the last few months as the recent El Nino ended. Dr David Whitehouse comments: Continue Reading →

Climate forecasts fulfilled or what?

Earlier today someone mentioned to me that a Guardian article confirmed the remarkable claim that climate models correctly predicted the evolution of this century’s temperatures. By implication, either they predicted the hiatus or the hiatus hasn’t occurred. I was intrigued.

It turns out the article came from a paper (actually a letter), Test of a decadal climate forecast, by Myles R. Allen, John F.B. Mitchell and Peter A. Stott, published online by Nature Geoscience on 27 March.

All I can access at present is the abstract and a single page (through ReadCube) but I can see some things to question, and I’d like to ask readers to help give some understanding of it.

The hiatus could falsify the DAGW hypothesis, so weakening the hiatus strengthens DAGW. It’s important we understand it correctly.

UPDATE 13 Apr 2013 11:55 am

Professor Mike Kelly, of Cambridge University, has kindly sent me a copy of the paper, saying he would review it for us. Reading through the extra page (two pages that change everything!), I find it packed with questions and comments.


To the Editor — Early climate forecasts are often claimed to have overestimated recent warming. However, their evaluation is challenging for two reasons. Continue Reading →